2016 Pinecrest/South Miami Year-End Market Report

2016

PINECREST/SOUTH MIAMI

LUXURY REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW CREATED BY

BEN MOSS

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Dear Neighbor, I would like to share with you my second annual Pinecrest / Ponce-Davis / South Miami luxury residential real estate market report. Despite the proliferation of data that is accessible to all of us, I find there to be a lack of information for those interested in what is happening in our specific neighborhood. As such, I’ve created neighborhood maps and have paired real estate data that corresponds to each neighborhood.

While there is only so much information I can provide in this written report, regular updates can be found at the end of each quarter for each neighborhood within the blog section of my website. Online, I will also provide data about each sale that occurred in your neighborhood.

I hope that you find this report to be useful to you. I have lived in the 33146 and 33143 zip codes for the last thirty two years, and am proud to serve our community. If I can ever be of service to you, please do not hesitate to let me know. I wish you and your family a healthy, peaceful and prosperous 2017!

Best regards,

Ben Moss Luxury Real Estate Specialist Director | East Coast Sports & Entertainment Division 305.793.4783 Ben@BenMossGroup.com

www.BenMossGroup.com

MARKET OVERVIEW * PINECREST

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET 150 120 90 60 30 0

SELLING PRICES - AVERAGE $2M

123 2013

94

96

2014

2015

102

$1M

2016

The average days on market have remained approximately the same in the last three years, with a slight increase over the previous two years in 2016. Our system only computes days on market with the current listing broker, so this figure should be higher when taking into account some properties that are listed with at least one broker.

However, houses that were priced well sold fairly quickly with buyer demand still present. Five houses sold within the first 30 days after being placed on the market.

SALES PRICE TO LIST PRICE 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

94

95

96

94

2013

2014

2015

2016

HOME SALES 200 100

168

161

153

151

50 0

2013

2014

2015

2016

There were 151 sales in 2016, which was the lowest level in the last four years. However, home sales have remained fairly steady during this time. We are well above the levels of 20112012. Pinecrest currently has 166 properties listed for sale, so there is a 13.2-month supply of houses for sale. This figure puts us squarely in a buyer’s market, but overall this is still a healthy submarket compared to many other areas of South Florida.

$1.33

$1.60

$1.51

$1.63

$.5M 0

2013

2014

2015

2016

The average sale price in 2016 was $1.63 M, higher than the 2015 figure of $1.51 M. There were four sales above $4.5 M in 2016, as compared to two in 2015 and four in 2014. The average sale price has remained relatively flat in Pinecrest for the last two years as the big price increase seemed to occur in 2014 (a 20% increase over 2013 prices). I don’t see a catalyst for prices to increase much in 2017, but Pinecrest remains a fairly stable market with good attractors including a top-rated school district and municipal services, as well as large lots.

AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT $300 $250

The sale price to list price metric outlines the amount of negotiation off of the list price. Given the slow movement away from a strong seller’s market into a buyer’s market, we’ve seen slightly more negotiation off of list prices, but not by any meaningful amount. On average in 2016, listing prices were reduced by 6% as a negotiation factor for closed sales.

150

$1.5M

$200

$253

$297

$302

2014

2015

$323

$150 $100 $50 0

2013

2016

Average sale prices/square foot ranged between $145 (needs major improvement/south Pinecrest) to $572 (new construction) in 2016. There were 4 sales above $500/sq. ft. in 2016, as compared to 3 such sales in 2015, and 5 such sales in 2014. By comparison, in 2013 only 3 sales were recorded above $400/square foot and the highest sale in 2013 was at $452/sq. ft. I expect that we will see fairly stable pricing levels in 2017.

HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN 2016 RICE RANGE P AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE NUMBER AVERAGE IN $$ SP/SQ FT SQ FT DAYS ON OF SALES SALES TO

MARKET LIST PRICE

1M or less 1M - 1.5M 1.5M - 2M 2M or more

$241 $306 $343 $412

3,582 4,219 5,321 7,118

97 81 124 123

38 60 23 36

93% 94% 92% 94%

In 2016, nearly 38% of all sales were in the $1 M - $1.5 M range and almost 24% and 23% of sales were recorded in the $1 M or less and $2 M or higher price categories, respectively. Only 14% of sales were recorded in the $1.5 M - $2 M price range. While the larger properties tended to remain on the market for sale for a longer period of time, they also achieved a higher sale price per square foot than the smaller properties.

* MINIMUM HOUSE SIZE OF 3,000 SQ FT FOR CONSIDERATION WITHIN MARKET OVERVIEW. DATA SOURCED FROM MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE.

MARKET OVERVIEW * SOUTH MIAMI / PONCE-DAVIS / HIGH PINES

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

SELLING PRICES - AVERAGE

200

$2.5M

150 100

196 131 2013

2014

2015

2016

SALES PRICE TO LIST PRICE 93

94

94

2014

2015

93

2016

There has been very little change in the negotiation factor off of the list price in recent history. In 2016, the average sale price represented a 6% discount to the average list price. As we continue to shift into a buyer’s market, if sellers do not adjust prices, then presumably we will see a larger delta between the list price and sale price of the average property.

HOME SALES 40 30

40

38

45

20

31

2013

2014

$2.25

$2.25

0

2015

2016

The average sale price has remained flat for the past four years and the average price of $2.25 M was the same in 2016 as it was in 2015.

There were 6 sales above $3 M in 2016, 8 such sales in 2015 and 9 such sales in 2014. The highest sale was that of 8535 Ponce De Leon Road, which sold for $5.45 M after being on the market for 508 days. We should see softness in 2017 as buyers have many properties to choose from and I would not be surprised to see prices fall modestly this year although unique properties can still sell at a premium level.

AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT 600

200 0

$384

$395

2013

2014

$422

$413

2015

2016

The average sale price declined nominally in 2016 from 2015 levels. However, just as with the average sale price, the average sale price per square foot metric shows a market on a plateau as far as pricing. We have seen less overall sales and less high-end sales progressively since 2015. Sale prices per square foot range between $226 - $518. The highest sale price/square foot in 2016 was $518 (4770 SW 80 Street). The average sale price per square foot in 2016 was $413.

HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN 2016 RICE RANGE P AVERAGE AVERAGE AVERAGE NUMBER AVERAGE IN $$ SP/SQ FT SQ FT DAYS ON OF SALES SALES TO

MARKET LIST PRICE

10 0

$2.23

$.5M

400

2013

$2.24

$1M

The average days on market jumped significantly in 2014, dropped significantly in 2015 and then shot up again in 2016 to 180 days. Given the shift we have seen in the last year from a seller’s market to a strong buyer’s market, it is to be expected that luxury properties are taking longer to sell than they have in the past. Also, the days on market count drops to 144 days in 2014 if we exclude a property (4825 SW 80 Street) that was on the market for 2,134 days consecutively, so the 180 days in 2016 is the highest we have seen in recent years.

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

$2M $1.5M

89

50 0

180

2013

2014

2015

2016

The 31 properties sold in 2016 represents a decrease of 31% over the 45 properties sold in 2015. This is also the lowest amount of properties sold since 28 sold in 2012. Based upon the 55 properties currently listed for sale, this submarket has a 21.3-month supply of available inventory. This is much higher that what we saw in years past, and puts the submarket very solidly into a buyer’s market (typically, a 6-9 month supply represents a balanced market). There is a lot of new construction in South Miami and High Pines around the $2 M range, which is not moving. It will take some time for this inventory to be absorbed, and much of it is of a contemporary/ modern design, which does not appeal to all buyers.

1M or less 1M - 1.5M 1.5M - 2M 2M or more

$234 $387 $404 $456

3,403 3,462 4,396 7,012

63 75 134 267

2 3 13 13

88% 96% 92% 94%

Approximately 84% of all sales in 2016 were above $1.5 M and 58% of all sales were below $2 M. The 9 most expensive sales took place in High Pines and Ponce-Davis. The highest sale in South Miami was 5861 SW 84 Street, which sold for $2.4 M. The larger properties garnered the highest prices on a per-square-foot basis, but they also took the longest amount of time to sell. Properties listed between $1 M - $1.5 M sold in less than 75 days on average, and those listed below $1 M sold in 63 days on average.

* MINIMUM HOUSE SIZE OF 3,000 SQ FT FOR CONSIDERATION WITHIN MARKET OVERVIEW. DATA SOURCED FROM MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE.

NEIGHBORHOOD OVERVIEW * *All neighborhood data is derived from closed sales of houses that were listed at or above $1 MM

NORTH PINECREST YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

2015 32 $2,060,438 $1,875,000 $363 92 95% 2016 43 $2,193,930 $1,800,000 $380 122 93%

50 40 30 20 10 0

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS

39

2013

44

2014

32 2015

43

2016

Eleven more properties sold last year than in 2015. Three sales traded above $500/sq. ft. and all were built in 2016. 5975 SW 102 Street sold for $572/sq. ft. (highest $/sq. ft.) and 9701 SW 63 Court sold for $5.5 M (highest absolute price). The average sale price/sq. ft. of $380 in 2016 is the highest ever in this neighborhood.

MID PINECREST YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

40

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

2015 42 $1,880,298 $1,425,000 $359 42 2016 34 $1,708,591 $1,425,000 $337 82

SALES/ LIST PRICE

93% 95%

30 20

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS

28

39

42

34

10 0

2013 2014

2015

2016

The number of sales is down slightly from 2015, and so is the average sale price and average sale price/sq. ft., albeit these are slight decreases.

Highest sale was at $461/sq. ft. and highest absolute price was $4.05 M (11030 SW 69 Ave). Next highest sale was 10845 SW 62 Ave. which sold for $2.8 M. Two properties sold for less than $1 M.

SOUTH PINECREST YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS 60

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

2015 37 $1,512,652 $1,250,000 $312 117 96% 2016 46 $1,556,854 $1,320,000 $321 107 94%

40 20 0

33

31

2013 2014

37 2015

46 2016

The number of sales increased by nine over 2015 levels. Price points remained stable year-over-year. Only four properties traded above $400/sq. ft., and highest sale was 12110 SW 60 Ct., selling for $3.499 M. Two sales were above $3 M and two sold below $1 M. Forty properties sold between $1 M - $2 M.

HIGH PINES & PONCE-DAVIS YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

2015 43 $2,249,842 $1,850,000 $443 75 95% 2016 21 $2,542,526 $1,990,000 $426 218 91%

50 40 30 20 10 0

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS

47

46

43 21

2013 2014

2015 2016

The number of properties sold in 2016 was considerably lower than in the previous three years. The average price was up slightly, while the average price/sq. ft. was down nominally. Prices were much more negotiable as well compared to the prior year. Three properties traded above $500/sq. ft. while two houses traded above $5.0 M. Seven total sales were above $3.0 M, while there were three sales less than $1 M.

SOUTH MIAMI YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

2015 14 $1,799,821 $1,647,500 $391 114 95% 2016 14 $1,740,000 $1,677,500 $429 97 96% The number of sales and relative pricing levels remained steady year-over-year.

The number of luxury sales is up significantly over the prior two-year period, with a lot of new construction helping to fuel this demand. Four properties sold above $2 M, with balance of sales between $1.075 - $1.950 M.

20 15 10 5 0

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS

6

5

14

14

2013

2014

2015

2016

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