Pinecrest & South Miami Year End Report 2014

2014 LUXURY REAL ESTATE MARKET REVIEW

PINECREST PONCE-DAVIS SOUTH MIAMI CREATED BY

BEN MOSS

018 Farmers_Pinecrest_Final mmycopy.indd 1

1/21/2015 10:04:13 AM

018 Farmers_Pinecrest_Final mmycopy.indd 2

1/21/2015 10:04:13 AM

Dear Neighbor, I would like to share with you my first annual Pinecrest / Ponce-Davis / South Miami luxury residential real estate market report. Despite the proliferation of data that is accessible to all of us, I find there to be a lack of information for those interested in what is happening in our specific neighborhood. As such, I’ve created neighborhood maps and have paired real estate data that corresponds to each neighborhood.

While there is only so much information I can provide in this written report, regular updates can be found at the end of each quarter for each neighborhood within the blog section of my website. Online, I will also provide data about each sale that occurred in your neighborhood.

I hope that you find this report to be useful to you. I have lived in the 33146 and 33143 zip codes for the last thirtyone years, and am proud to serve our community. If I can ever be of service to you, please do not hesitate to let me know. I wish you and your family a healthy, peaceful and prosperous 2015!

Best regards,

www.BenMossGroup.com

018 Farmers_Pinecrest_Final mmycopy.indd 3

1/21/2015 10:04:14 AM

MARKET OVERVIEW * PINECREST

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET 150 120 90 60 30 0

138

SELLING PRICES - AVERAGE SELLING PRICES – AVERAGE $2M

128

123

94

$1.62

$1M

2011

2012

2013

2014

2014 witnessed the fewest average days on the market since the Great Recession began in 2009, at 94 days. Our system only computes days on market with the current listing broker, so this metric can be misleading. However, houses that were priced properly sold quickly, as buyer demand remained strong. Only 5 houses took longer than 1 year to sell and 29 houses sold within ten days of being placed for sale.

SALES PRICE TOLIST LIST PRICE SALES PRICE TO PRICE 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

$1.5M

91

92

94

$1.29

$1.33

2012

2013

$1.60

$.5M 0

2011

2014

The average sale price in 2014 jumped to $1,601,428, up from $1,332,445 in 2013 (a 20% increase). While many other submarkets in Miami witnessed large price jumps in 2012 and 2013, Pinecrest was a lagging market in this respect with most of the price gains in the last 4 years occurring in 2014.

AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT 95

$300 $250 $200

$228

$246

$253

2012

2013

$297

$150

2011

2012

2013

2014

The sales price to list price metric shows the amount of negotiation off of the list price. Given the seller’s market we have seen the last two years in Pinecrest, it’s no wonder that we’ve seen a negotiation factor of 6% in 2013 and 5% in 2014. As the market starts slowly shifting away from a strong seller’s market, we should see more negotiation in 2015/2016.

HOME HOME SALES SALES

$100 $50 0

2011

2014

Consistent with the rising market we have seen in the last few years, the average sale price per square foot in Pinecrest has risen by 30% since 2011 to nearly $300/sq. ft. At the high end of the market, we are now seeing prices above $500/sq. ft. with 6 sales at or above this mark in 2014. By comparison, only 3 sales were recorded above $400/sq. ft. in 2013, the highest of which was $452/sq. ft.

200 150 100

125

140

168

161

RICE RANGE SMALLEST LARGEST AVERAGE AVERAGE NUMBER AVERAGE P IN $$ SQ FT SQ FT SQ FT DAYS ON OF SALES SALES TO MARKET LIST PRICE

50 0

2011

HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN 2014

2012

2013

2014

The number of sales in 2014 was just under the total from 2013, but still well above the figures posted in 2008 (91 sales), 2009 (123 sales), 2010 (124 sales) and 2011 (125 sales).

1M or less 1M - 1.5M 1.5M - 2M 2M or more

3,007 3,100 4,131 4,500

5,137 6,976 7,658 12,400

3,622 4,384 5,620 7.900

79 72 87 145

56 43 22 40

96% 95% 95% 93%

While the premium segment of the market created new sale price and sale price/sq. ft. records, there is also more negotiation in this segment and the most expensive houses spend more time on the market.

4

* Minimum house size of 3,000 square feet for consideration within Market Overview. Data sourced from Multiple Listing Service.

018 Farmers_Pinecrest_Final mmycopy.indd 4

1/21/2015 10:04:15 AM

MARKET OVERVIEW * SOUTH MIAMI / PONCE-DAVIS / HIGH PINES

AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET

SELLING - AVERAGE SELLINGPRICES PRICES – AVERAGE

200

$2.5M

196

150 100 50 0

112

139

131

$1.5M $1M

2011

2012

2013

2014

Average days on market jumped significantly in 2014 from 131 days in 203 to 196 days in 2014. However, this is due in large part to the sale of 4825 SW 80 Street, which took 2,134 days to sell.

Excluding that property, the figure for 2014 equals 144 days on market. Overall, the trend has been increasing the last four years, with homes taking slightly longer to sell each year.

SALES PRICE TOLIST LIST PRICE SALES PRICE TO PRICE 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0

90

91

93

94

2011

2012

2013

2014

40 20

40

38

2013

2014

28

10 0

2011

$2.23

0

2011

2012

2013

2014

The average sale price remains virtually unchanged from 2013 ($2,239,352) to 2014 ($2,229,936). Overall, pricing was flat in 2014 with equal pull from buyers and sellers. However, the average price has risen approximately 51% since 2011. There were 9 sales above $3,000,000 and only 4 below $1,000,000.

AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT AVERAGE SALE PRICE / SQUARE FOOT 400

200

$289

$322

$384

$395

2013

2014

100 0

2011

2012

The average price per square foot nearly cracked $400 in 2014.

While relatively flat the last two years, the average price per square foot has risen nearly 37% since 2011.

HOME SALES BY PRICE RANGE IN 2014

HOME SALES HOME SALES 32

$1.38

$1.85

$2.24

$.5M

300

The sales price to list price metric shows the amount of negotiation off of the list price. The negotiation factor off the list price was the lowest in 2014 that it has been since the Great Recession. Given the high number of total sales in the market, sellers have been pricing homes to sell within reason. However, if the average days on market continues to increase, we may well see a larger negotiation factor starting to take shape as buyers may sense more pressure on sellers as houses sit on the market for longer durations.

30

$2M

2012

The number of home sales in this market remained steady at 38 in 2014, compared to 40 sales in 2013. To give a more historical context, there were 21 sales in 2008, 30 sales in 2009 and 28 sales in 2010. As such, we are seeing a period of strong absolute sales in this market currently. New construction in South Miami is elevating the stature of the submarket in the luxury sector, given convenient access to downtown South Miami. All three submarkets are seeing high levels of speculative new construction.

RICE RANGE SMALLEST LARGEST AVERAGE AVERAGE NUMBER AVERAGE P IN $$ SQ FT SQ FT SQ FT DAYS ON OF SALES SALES TO MARKET LIST PRICE

1M or less 1M - 1.5M 1.5M - 2M 2M or more

3,024 3,010 3,528 4,680

3,573 4,751 7,501 9,452

3,279 3,877 4,828 6,862

65 122 193 257

92% 94% 94% 94%

Approximately 50% of the total sales in the market were above $2,000,000. Five sales notched prices per square foot at or above $500/Sq. Ft., while six houses traded below $300/sq. ft. Of the seven houses that were built in 2013 and 2014, only one sold below $2,000,000, while three sold above $3,000,000. The most expensive sale was 4965 SW 82 Street, which sold for $4,700,000 ($541/sq. ft.). The 12 most expensive sales occurred in Ponce-Davis, due to prestige of the area and large lot sizes.

* Minimum house size of 3,000 square feet for consideration within Market Overview. Data sourced from Multiple Listing Service.

018 Farmers_Pinecrest_Final mmycopy.indd 5

4 8 7 19

5 1/21/2015 10:04:15 AM

NEIGHBORHOOD OVERVIEW *All neighborhood data is derived from closed sales of houses that were listed at or above $1 MM

6 018 Farmers_Pinecrest_Final mmycopy.indd 6

1/21/2015 10:04:16 AM

NORTH PINECREST YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

2013 39 $1,794,656 $1,450,000 $315 117 91% 2014 44 $2,443,610 $2,186,600 $370 117 94%

50 40 30 20 10 0

This neighborhood leads the way in prestige and pricing with 5 sales above $500/sq. ft.; 5851 SW 94 Street sold for $585/sq. ft. The 2 highest absolute sale prices were for 9030 SW 60 Ave. ($5,500,000 / $443/sq. ft.) and for 5790 SW 97 St. ($5,495,000 / $520/sq. ft.).

MID PINECREST YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

2013 28 $1,799,000 $1,751,250 $290 176 93% 2014 39 $1,747,604 $1,535,000 $317 105 93% This neighborhood saw solid price growth and total sales growth in 2014. One property sold above $500/sq. ft. (10915 SW 63 Ave). The three highest sales on a per-square-foot basis were on the market an average of 379 days, yet the sale to list price ratio was a strong 95%. Days on market does not always equate to more negotiation off of the list price, as evidenced herein.

40

MEDIAN PRICE

20 10 0

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

30

92% 93%

20

This neighborhood saw two sales above $400/sq. ft., with the balance all falling below this mark. Only 4 houses sat on the market longer than 200 days. 12110 SW 60 Court was the highest absolute and per-sq. ft. sale in 2014 at $3,300,000 ($406/sq. ft.).

10 0

HIGH PINES & PONCE-DAVIS MEDIAN PRICE

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

2013 47 $2,133,485 $1,850,000 $401 160 92% 2014 46 $2,129,697 $1,857,000 $449 181 94% The total sales in 2013/2014 have been the most since the Great Recession. Price growth and sales/list price have been strong, but days on market has increased slightly. The highest sale was for 8401 SW 52 Avenue which sold for $647/sq. ft., although at 4,941 sq. ft. it is smaller than typical for area. New construction at 4965 SW 82 St. sold for $4,700,000 ($541/sq. ft.) over 8,677 sq. ft.

50 40 30 20 10 0

SOUTH MIAMI YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

MEDIAN PRICE

39 44

2011 2012 2013 2014

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS

20

27 28

39

2011 2012 2013 2014

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS PRICE PER SQ FT

2013 33 $1,566,909 $1,440,000 $271 99 2014 31 $1,555,333 $1,360,000 $289 86

YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

24 25

30

SOUTH PINECREST YEAR SALES AVG PRICE

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS

PRICE PER SQ FT

AVG DOM

SALES/ LIST PRICE

2013 6 $1,387,256 $1,400,000 $316 76 94% 2014 5 $1,419,300 $1,500,000 $331 141 87% With so few total sales, the statistics are easily skewed. However, the overall sale prices were mostly in line with 2013, although the negotiation factor was off with 3 sale prices having been negotiated by more than 10%, and one by 28% off the list price. The area is witnessing a lot of new construction so 2015 should yield more high-end sales.

10 8 6 4 2 0

16

21

2011 2012

33 31

2013 2014

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS

47 46 25 26 2011 2012

2013 2014

SALES BY NEIGHBORHOODS

5

6

6

5

2011 2012 2013 2014

7 018 Farmers_Pinecrest_Final mmycopy.indd 7

1/21/2015 10:04:17 AM

BEN MOSS ESTATE AGENT & MANAGING DIRECTOR, SPORTS & ENTERTAINMENT DIVISION

About Ben Moss – –

– –

–

–

Coral Gables/South Miami resident for 31 years Launched ONE Sotheby’s Sports & Entertainment division in 2014 Over $50,000,000 in sales in 2014 Member of Master Brokers Forum and the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing’s Million Dollar Guild Real estate educator for the Miami Dolphins rookie class – 5 consecutive years Fluent in English and Spanish

Relationships Ben’s goal in life is to build long-lasting relationships in every facet of his life that are built on a foundation of trust, service, and friendship.

Call Ben today at 305-793-4783 or email him at Ben@BenMossGroup.com

Connect with Ben on Social Media @BenMossGroup

018 Farmers_Pinecrest_Final mmycopy.indd 8

www.BenMossGroup.com

1/21/2015 10:04:18 AM