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Brexit – what we can learn from the film Speed and the perils of prediction Preparing an article about Brexit in mid-January 2019 is like submitting a review of the film Speed half way through a screening. You have been told that there is specific time when the film should end (1 hr 56 minutes for any film nerds out there) as there is a fixed date for when Brexit is scheduled to happen (11pm, GMT, on Friday 29 March 2019); but you are still unsure of how the drama may end. Photo: Philip Henson
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6. Seek an extension of Article 50 and set out the timescale for a general ike the classic action film, the Brexit drama continues at fast past, election when each party will set out (if they are able to do so) their but with some very British quirks – votes of no confidence, manifesto pledges on Brexit beforehand. contempt of Parliament. Observers are not sure if the Brexit bus will continue travelling perilously at 50 mph, if an economic bomb could 7. Seek an extension of Article 50, take part in the EU elections, and seek explode; and occasionally wonder who is driving the bus. Choices had to elect MEP’s who are passionate and talented, who would have the to be made quickly and balanced against the potential losses – the power to influence EU policy, and to represent the UK fully in the EU, and people on the bus, and the impact on the community. There is no time if mandated to do so, seek to make changes from within. for reflection – or rest - if you have to keep travelling at the same speed. A modest extension of time to just before the EU elections in May 2019 In the same vein there is no time to carry out a meaningful consultation might be acceptable to our European counterparts (and can be spun to with all political parties – or your constituents - with just 30 odd sitting the domestic audience as a required step, or part of a compromise to days until Brexit day. seek consensus); but in Europe there will be little appetite to extend it It is plain as a pike staff that there is not enough time before Brexit Day to further. Even if that modest extension was agreed would that be enough consult on alternatives to the Prime Minister’s proposals. There is also not time – politicians have to take holidays too, and some have second jobs enough time to pass the estimated 800 statutory instruments before 29 and businesses to look after? March 2019. It has also been announced that there are no other trade Would we not be better – and I am sticking my neck out here – by deals on the horizon (it seems it’s not as easy as some politicians seeking broad consensus to revoke Article 50 before Brexit day and then thought). Like the government’s new found passion for buying freezers enter into a comprehensive consultation with each community (especially and chartering ferries, many of our clients are spending money planning our friends in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland around the for a possibility which should not really be on the table at all – hard Brexit. border issue and our commitments to the Good Friday Agreement) European politicians also read British newspapers and watch UK media looking at each aspect of how we are intertwined with the EU, and the as well, so we trying to play a game of chicken is not necessary. Hard benefits/disadvantages of that relationship, and then review the Brexit Brexit is the default – and on the statute books – on Brexit day. question again. Revoking Article 50 could be a way to let the nation come So what do we do? Put our hands over our eyes, and hope that together in a measured way, and to listen to and seek to understand the everything is ok, or do we just be honest with everyone about the other person’s concerns with sensitivity. timescales. There was not enough planning or consultation at an early Whilst that suggestion will be frustrating to a great many people on both stage on what Brexit means (I hope that is not too controversial!), and sides of the English Channel, would it not be preferable to the continuing there is not enough time to iterate that now – let alone feed all the uncertainty, animosity, and in some corners sheer bubbling vitriol. It would unicorns that are running around. So, as I see it, we broadly have 7 also allow each side (and the various off shoot factions) of the debate choices, and in the same way that I suggest a range of restaurants for time to reflect, and set out their plan/vision for Brexit and if they don’t dinner, at least one of the following options is a fake option. have a plan to seek a cross party plan. 1. Chunter along (whistling Monty Pythons’ “always look on the bright Let’s not forget – seeking a tenuous loop back to my opening paragraph side of life”, or bellowing “get on with it”, (whatever “it” is)) and waste - that despite some stellar performances Speed was up against Forrest time until Brexit day and then see if hard Brexit is made of granite, Gump at the 1995 Oscars and it did not win an Oscar for best film or chalk or water. best actor in a leading or supporting. But it did win the coveted Oscars 2. Wait to see if anyone in Europe has the audacity/good idea for both best Sound mixing and best sound editing. You will, of course, [depending upon your point of view] to offer a solution to our very all remember that there was a sequel - Speed 2. Cruise Control - but British problem. Keanu Reeves was not involved in the project; deciding instead to go on tour with his band called Dogstar. 3. Knock around a few ideas about different models – Norway Minus, Canada plus plus plus – and lament the lack of time and ponder if We may also find that more of the original members of the Brexit cast, only we had more time then we could have solved this conundrum. who have not already resigned, are not involved in the next stage of the Brexit journey. If “Brexit 2 – which way now” – makes it to the silver screen 4. Ask for more time – either by asking to extend Article 50, or by then we may find that many of the key actors have decided not to be unilaterally revoking it. On the latter point, guidance from the Court of Justice in the Wightman attached to that project, or they have moved on to new opportunities in the private sector or been elevated to the House of Lords. ■ case (handed down on 10 December 2018) provides that any revocation must be “Unequivocal and unconditional, that is to say that the purpose of that revocation is to confirm the EU membership of the Philip Henson Member State concerned under terms that are unchanged as regards Partner - Head of Employment Team and China Desk, its status as a Member State, and that revocation brings the ebl miller rosenfalck. withdrawal procedure to an end”. 5. Seek an extension of Article 50 and set out the timescale for a second referendum on Brexit, with a consultation on what the questions should be.
CENTRAL LONDON LAWYER 19