INTERNATIONALTRADE
Brazil
With world cup fever fermenting slowly, we take a look at what else Brazil has to offer Capital Brasília Largest city Sao Paulo Administrative divisions Brazil is a federation composed of 26 States, 1 Federal and Municipalities. Currency Real (R$) (BRL)
come from Europe, followed by 16% from the US and China. Following a dip in imports from Asia, the share of imports from Asia is expected to rise. The UK falls behind the likes of Germany, India, Mexico, Nigeria and Chile, accounting for 1.7% of imports into Brazil.
SWOT analysis Strengths World’s sixth largest economy High population
Area 8,514,877 km2 Population 193,946,886 (2012) Calling code +55 Official language Portuguese
Weaknesses Income Inequality Lack of investments in industry Excessive Bureaucracy
Opportunities 2014 world cup and 2016 Olympics Growing middle class Manufacturing Threats Export Driven Economy Real Currency Very High Interest Rates
Brazil’s trade with the UK
Ease of trading across borders Importing a standard container of goods into Brazil requires:
8 documents
17 days
£2275
Introduction The UK is the fourth largest investor in Brazil, UK exports to Brazil increased 23% in 2010 and 9% in 2011. Brazil has a mixed economy with abundant natural resources. The Brazilian economy has been predicted to become one of the five largest in the world in the decades to come. In the last 15 years, the country has pursued a strategy of export-led growth and regional integration. The economy is relatively well diversified with a strong manufacturing and agricultural base. But economic activity is still concentrated in the southeast, particularly in the state of São Paulo.
Sector segmentation growth Sectors to watch: • Uti.ned petroleum products • Other extraction activities
Manufacturing • Aerospace • Domestic appliances • Pesticides & other agrochemicals
Fastest-growing exporters into Brazil
Total merchandise trade - Leading import partners
Economic snapshot (% annual growth rate) GDP Export of goods and services Import of goods and services Inflation Short-term interest rates (%) Exchange rate (per £) Population Unit labour cost
2011 2.7 4.5 9.7 6.6 11.7 2.00 0.9 6.8
2012 2013-16 1.0 4.5 -0.8 8.5 -1.2 8.0 5.4 5.0 8.5 7.8 2.03 1.99 0.9 0.8 -5.6 -1.0 Source: Oxford Economics
Economic outlook Brazil’s economy slowed unexpectedly, growing by 0.6% in the three months to September versus the previous quarter. Growth for 2012 now looks set to be closer to 1%, compared with 2.7% last year and 7.5% in 2010. President Dilma Rousseff launched the first in a series of measures aimed at injecting up to $50bn (£32bn) into the economy over the next five years, and increasing the private sector’s role in the economy. The plan included privatising about 14,000km of railways and roads, followed by selling ports and lowering energy costs.
Trade outlook Latin America, China and Europe are Brazil top exporters over the medium term. However, Brazil exports to Europe are set to decline in the medium term, while exports destined for Asia and the US continue to increase as a share of total exports. Trade with Asia (excluding Japan) already accounts for more than a quarter of Brazil’s merchandise exports. The continued rapid industrialisation of these Asian economies is expected to drive further demand for raw materials from Brazil in coming years. China and Vietnam will be the fastest-growing export destinations over this period, ensuring that China retains its position as the most important destination for Brazilian exports. 40% of Brazil’s imports
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2012 Malaysia Poland Mexico UK Vietnam Bangladesh Canada Hong Kong Germany India
Opportunities for UK businesses One of the world’s most rapidly developing economies with GDP per head greater than either India or China. Certain sectors of the Brazilian market have experienced higher than average growth, such as air transportation, telecoms, oil and gas, and mining. Under the second phase of the Growth Acceleration Program the Government of Brazil will spend around US$470 billion in development of the country’s energy generation and infrastructure as well as stadiums as it prepares for the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016. Other promising areas for UK companies include construction, aerospace and aviation, electrical power, safety and security devices, environmental technologies, retail, and transportation.
June-July 2014 ThinkingBUSINESS
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