Podium
An important note: All opinions and ideas expressed in The Podium are the personal opinions and convictions of featured student writers and are not necessarily the opinions of The Podium staff, the Belmont Hill History Department, or the Belmont Hill School itself.
The Staff of The Podium 2024-2025
Back Row, Left to Right: Ben Adams, Davis Woolbert, Mikey Furey, Jaiden Lee, Brandon Li, Suhas Kaniyar, Teo Rivera-Wills; Front Row: Wesley Zhu, Ernest Lai
Cover photo from BH Archives
Published by the Belmont Hill School 350
Printed by Belmont Printing Co.
Designed with Adobe InDesign and Adobe Photoshop
Letter from the Staff
Dear Reader,
With the end of a fantastic ’24-’25 school year, Volume X, Edition I marks the final edition of The Podium for the senior editors on the staff while simultaneously ushering in a new wave of younger students looking to expand their reach as as writers and contributors to The Podium.
We begin with “History on the Hill,” where Jaiden Lee ‘26 and Brandon Li ’26 take us through a brief history of the Melvoin Classical Coin Exhibit with an interview with Dr. Davis, the faculty advisor of the Classics Club at Belmont Hill. The article analyzes the work achieved by BH classicists over the past couple of years and their efforts in broadening Classics Club’s horizons and tackling new projects alongside the existing ancient coin research.
Next is several excellent opinion pieces with contributions from both seniors (Brady Paquette ’25 and juniors (Bradford Adams ’26, Eli Norden ‘26). Brady writes on the importance of unbiased journalism, making several key points about society’s current outlook on reacting to major news networks and how we can improve how we learn about the world looking forward. Bradford expands on the political question of whether the United States should impose tariffs on China, analyzing multiple aspects including financial difficulties and potential foreign policy consequences, making sure to acknowledge both sides of the argument. Eli writes on the Gilad Shalit hostage talks and the overlaps seen in that situation with the ongoing war in Gaza, focusing on the national secuirty aspects such violence introduces and his own personal support for the hostage talks to succeed.
Moving onto this issue’s research papers, Riley Marth ‘27 writes an excellent paper on Chinese-African relations moving into the second decade of the current century, making several important arguments on how China must capitalize on African nations’ debts to the nation in order to successfully display their global power on the world stage. Sebastian Stafford ‘29 writes on space travel, honing in on both the financial benefits from expanding the country’s space mission outlooks as well as the inspiration it provides to future generations of American space explorers. Lastly, Lucien Davis ‘26 writes about President Trump and Elon Musk’s role in reshaping federal spending, arguing that deficit reduction must be achieved, albeit questioning Congress’s action on this matter. Finally, Sam Leviton ‘27 provides his take on U.S. analysts predicting an economic recession in the country, focusing on the government’s instability and the impact of tariffs. Thank you for taking a look at this issue, and we’ll see you again in the next one!
Jaiden Lee ‘26, Brandon Li ‘26 | Editors-in-Chief
Lucien Davis ‘26, | Executive Editor
Teo-Rivera Wills ‘27, Suhas Kaniyar ‘28, Sam Leviton ‘27 | Associate Editors
Brady Paquette ’25, Bradford Adams ’26, Eli Norden ‘26, Henry Ramanathan ‘26, Riley Marth ‘27, Ryan Li ‘28, Sebastian Stafford ’29 | Staff Writers
Mr. Harvey | Faculty Advisor
Thank you to the History Department for their assistance in identifying strong essays and papers. Their dedication to The Podium is vital to the success of the final publication. For past editions, exclusive articles and more information, visit us online!
bhpodium.org | @bh_podium
The History of the Melvoin Classical Coin Exhibit
Jaiden Lee ‘26, Brandon Li ‘26
The classical coin exhibit has been a constant fixture in Melvoin for the past few years, inspiring students and visitors alike as they wander past the collection and marvel at its ancient relics. The collection, which ranges from the silver denarii of the Roman Republic to the Greek tetradrachmae of the Roman Empire, is the result of years of community collaboration, student-led initiatives, and passion for the classics at Belmont Hill.
Dr. Davis first conceptualized the coin exhibit in 2018 as a potential learning opportunity for his Latin 3A class, which is known for its avant-garde and experimental design. Seeking to provide students with opportunities to learn more about the material culture of Ancient Rome, Dr. Davis applied for and received a grant from an anonymous alumni donor, who specified that the money be used for “innovative language teaching strategies.” This grant ultimately funded every aspect of the exhibit, from the coins themselves to the display case holding them, to the website documenting them online.
Throughout its history, the Belmont Hill coin exhibit has been primarily developed by students in the classics club. Although Dr. Davis has facilitated its development and ensured the quality of the display, the Classics Club has ultimately been responsible for curating, updating, and innovating the display. When the Belmont Hill Classics Club was formed in 2018 by members of the Latin 3A class, Dr. Davis helped the group curate the coin collection by taking them on trips to museums, such as the Worcester Art Museum, the Harvard Art Museum, and the Museum of Fine Arts, and by setting up meetings with the curators of these collections so that members could learn from them. As Dr. Davis recalled in an interview, “We went to all these places, we looked at [their] coin collections, and we talk-
ed to the curators about [their] design choices, what they were thinking when they did it, [and] what they were going for.” Ultimately, with the fixed budget they were given to purchase coins with, the 2018 classics club curated a nice balance between expensive, interesting coins and cheap, low-quality coins.
After purchasing the ancient relics from sources that Dr. Davis ensured were ethical and reputable, the Classics Club enlisted the help of the Belmont Hill community in putting together the exhibit. The boys first sought the assistance of Mr. Kaplan, who helped them turn their sketches of the display case into specs that a carpenter could build. Once the display case was constructed, electricians installed it in its current location in Melvoin. Mr. Duarte further helped the group by photographing each coin with a high-resolution lightbox, which helped the boys digitally document the collection. The now-retired Doc Fast, an avid coin collector himself, acted as a consultant throughout the entire process by giving advice on the educational application of coinage and the presentation of the coins themselves. Mr. Ryan, in conjunction with Ishaan Prasad ’18, helped design a website for the exhibition, and Kevin Weldon ’24 once again enlisted the help of Mr. Ryan to modernize the webpage.
Additionally, one of the key attributes of the coin exhibit is the extensive role of the students themselves, with all of the displayed coins having been researched by BH students themselves. While some of the coins have had secondary research done on them by professional scholars, many others have not, and students have taken up the challenge for both kinds of coins over the years. After thorough research on the context and backstory of each individual coin, students in the Classics Club then checked each others’ work. The coins are then uploaded to the Classics Club website with a small essay written by the boys that
are attached to each one. Dr. Davis, as faculty advisor for the club, facilitates the entire process and oversees quality control.
Dr. Davis also stated, “Although this started with my Latin 3A class, I definitely wanted this process to be associated with the Classics Club, since it’s more outside of the school curriculum. That way, kids who didn’t do Latin and Greek could also be involved; we’ve had kids who are really into either coins, archaeology, or broader classics stuff, but they just wanted to take a modern language. So this process would run very smoothly as long as we have a group of motivated guys who want to get things done.” Looking into the future, the Classics Club will be exploring how the coins might be displayed on one of the walls in the Melvoin, as well as technology’s role in showing off the exhibit. The club is experimenting with the possibility of using adjacent iPads in the exhibit that involve augmented reality or research facts that people could have quick access to. Through this interplay of technology and the antiquities, the Classics Club aims to provide a broader lens to the world of Ancient Rome to the Belmont Hill community.
History on the Hill
The Importance of Unbiased Journalism
Brady Paquette ‘25
Journalism has been the backbone of the American press for the past 300 years and has shaped the way the general public thinks, acts, and understands what is going on in the world. Independent news and media agencies are given the opportunity to gather information, process it into a newsworthy form, and disseminate that information to the public in any way they would like, all of which is protected under the First Amendment of the US Constitution, guaranteeing both the freedom of speech and press. However, the objective of presenting information to people was that it was supposed to be unbiased, meaning that news reporting was meant to be objective and impartial. This ideal involves presenting facts without personal preference or individualized opinions, allowing the audience to form their own judgment. A common approach to accomplish this was to include multiple perspectives on a story, ensuring that a range of viewpoints are considered. In recent decades, with the nation’s political sphere of influence becoming the hub for debate, media agencies have slowly started to shift away from complete neutrality in their reporting. The term ‘media bias’ has gained traction since the early 1990s, implying a pervasive or widespread bias contravening the standards of journalism, rather than the perspective of the individual journalist or article.
Many argue that while unbiased journalism is a core principle of information dissemination, it should be recognized that journalists are humans, all with their own beliefs, opinions, and unconscious judgments. This statement is true and justifiable and should not be overlooked. Complete objectivity is undoubtedly impossible, as even the selection of which stories to cover can be influenced by various factors. Understanding and embracing the nuances of writing credibly and citing
sources correctly in order to be published is also difficult. But when it comes to a more targeted approach to journalism, such as filtering language and tone based on audience reception or altering persona based on the interest of the media agency, it, again, underscores the core of independent journalism. While many things in this world can be perceived as subjective or ‘up for debate,’ delivering factual and credible information does not have to be. It is important to recognize that the industrial growth and technological advancement in US society over the years have equipped consumers with an array of challenges that many in the 18th century did not have to deal with. In the late 1700s and early 1800s, newspapers were often explicitly affiliated with a political party or interest group. Most notably, early American federalists and Republican newspapers routinely attacked each other. Bias was inherent, and no one held accountable for objectivity because there was no norm of doing so. Around the early to mid20th century, the US saw a growing movement in journalism toward professionalism and enhanced publisher regulations on writers. Journalism schools, or colleges with their own journalism schools like Columbia and Northwestern University, started to emerge, and oftentimes, a code of ethics was required for students. Throughout and post WWII, American soft power had expanded onto an international scale, and major outlets like the New York Times and CBS focused on delivering the effects of westward ideological expansion to the American people accurately and factually. The US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) implemented a decree called the Fairness Doctrine in 1949, requiring the holders of broadcasting licenses to present controversial issues that were important to the American public in a manner that fairly reflected varying viewpoints. The shift to interpretive journalism then started to rise throughout
the 1980s and 1990s, with scandals like Watergate and the issuing of US troops in Vietnam fostering skepticism of government. The FCC later revoked the doctrine in 1989, saying it violated free speech rights. Journalists gained independence and took more investigative roles, covertly reflecting bias through story choice, framing, and tone. With the turn of the 21st century, any effort to secrete biases faded, primarily due to the rise of cable news (Fox, MSNBC, CNN) and social media with opinion-driven content catered to specific audiences based on ideology. Business models started using sensationalism as a tool for their platforms. Studies show an increase in perceived and real media polarization, especially after events like the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2016 Presidential Election.
With the nation becoming increasingly polarized ideologically over the last decade, political parties adopting more radical approaches to domestic issues, and religious partisanship intersecting political wings, media agencies have amplified their biases to unprecedented numbers. Surveys show that 66% of US consumers believe that 76% or more of the news on social media is biased (link). Independent US journalists not associated with news agencies using new platforms like Substack are also expressing their concerns about possible subjectivity in media reporting. In 2024, 38.2% of US news consumers unknowingly shared fake news. Redline’s recent survey revealed that only 30% of all respondents find mainstream news media ‘highly trustworthy.’
The amount of disinformation or false news in the nation is also spreading rapidly. Disinformation poses a threat to public trust in our news agencies and has started to blur the lines between biased and blatantly untrue information. Look at the weather for example. Many news agencies require their meteorologists to hold an Amer-
ican Meteorological Society (AMS) certification to broadcast. Unlike stories or articles, delivering the forecast and predicting weather patterns is up to the meteorologist to present what they think in a formulated manner based on their knowledge and qualifications regarding the weather. Predictions and forecasts are not facts and can, in theory, be wrong, yet, according to the NOAA, “A 7-day forecast can accurately predict the weather ~80% of the time and a 5-day forecast can accurately predict the weather ~90% of the time.” For reference, according to the National Center for State Courts (NCSC), “60% of global news consumers say news organizations regularly report false stories.” Regularly. With the emergence of social media in the past few years, news companies and brands have started using their platforms to reach wider, younger, and oftentimes less educated audiences who may not be as informed in an effort to disseminate their biases.
It is truly astounding how society has adopted a biased framework to news reporting as the new norm. The nature and visibility of media bias have become glaringly apparent in the American news agencies, changing significantly over time. It is time that we, as a nation, sustain the principles of ethical journalism and uphold the morals of neutrality and objectivity. If we don’t, who will?
Should the United States Impose Tariffs on China?
Bradford Adams ’26
When Donald Trump assumed the presidency in January, one of his promises was to place tariffs on China and other nations. He has certainly followed through with that promise, slapping tariffs on about 90 nations across the world, before pausing them. The first wave of tariffs are intriguing - as they can be interpreted as a possible negotiating tool - but from a purely economic point of view, they can be viewed as nothing short of a disaster. The stock market suffered heavy losses, as the S&P 500 was almost 20 percent lower than when Trump took office. While the recent pauses have caused an uptick, the market still remains down around 10 percent from its high under Trump. Nevertheless, while these tariffs were supposedly economic and passed in order to reduce the trade deficit - another
suspect decision from an economics standpoint - the China tariffs represent an entirely different rationale. Undoubtedly, the tariffs would be a hit to the economy - although whether it would be permanent or temporary cannot be known - but considering the Chinese Communist Party stands as the largest threat to the United States on the world stage, would they be worth it?
The most prominent argument against these tariffs is the negative effect it will have on the American economy. The numbers certainly do not paint a pretty picture. In early April, Trump piled on the tariffs for China, and the current rate exceeds 100 percent, drastically reducing the profitability of trade between the countries, except for select exempted goods like cell phones. Imports were forecast to be cut in half, with exports from America falling a similar amount. US econo-
President Trump and Xi Jinping at the 2019 G20 Summit Source: G20 Summit
mists project the tariffs to possibly reduce the US GDP by 5 percent and result in thousands lost for the average American family per year, although the White House disputes this. Although revenue generated from these tariffs would dampen the financial hit, it would still only account for about half of the money lost. The reciprocal tariffs enacted by China would also hurt the American economy, and while only a small percentage compared to the import tariff, it still represents billions of dollars lost. As well, China possesses around 750 billion in US treasury securities, which they could sell as a last resort to cripple the American economy. With this rather grim picture in mind, it seems obvious that the current trade war with China seems foolhardy.
Nevertheless, the tariff does provide value beyond the purely economic sphere. For one, a trade war with China affects both sides, and the Chinese economy would suffer from losing its largest consumer and producer. Economists project it could end up causing them to lose up to 3 percent GDP in the span of just three years. Furthermore, it is in the interest of US security that the country is self-sufficient with regards to important natural resources, and developing those industries at home is better than importing it from a direct adversary. As well, incentivizing high-tech companies to pull out of China protects the US and its allies from possible espionage, helping America maintain its edge in technology.
The question of placing tariffs on China is one that has no obvious answer. Both sides of the argument have their pros and cons, and only time will tell what the correct decision is. Nevertheless, the benefit of the tariffs in the long run is hard to overlook. In the event of conflict between the two nations, it is important that the United States is self-sufficient, and has an advantage over China, which these tariffs will
do. In addition, the hit to the Chinese economy is likely to severely hamper the growth of the Chinese economy, which would be especially vulnerable due to its extreme growth this century. While the financial hit would hurt, there are many more trading parties who - assuming the President doesn’t pass sweeping tariffs like he originally did - could potentially pick up the burden alongside new US production. The potential negative effects certainly could prove costly, but in a nation that has seen its status as the lone superpower slip through its fingers, serious action is needed to remain at the top.
The Lessons Israel Failed to Learn from the Gilad Shalit Prisoner Ex-
change
Eli Norden ‘26
The Israeli Defense Forces had no way of knowing that under the very territory of Israel, seven or eight Hamas militants were crossing the border, ready to fight, attack, and steal. Near Kibbutz Kerem Shalom, the namesake of the crossing into Gaza, the terrorists had devised plans to attack a nearby small IDF post. So, on June 25 2006, two IDF soldiers were killed, and 19-year-old Gilad Shalit was hauled back to Gaza—the first successful Palestinian kidnapping of an Israeli soldier since 1994—having suffered a broken hand and shoulder injury during the attack.
Born in 1986 in Nahariya, the most northern Israeli coastal city, Shalit grew up in Matzpe Hila, a small town of about 500 in the Galilee. He graduated with honors from his local high school and, even in the face of a low military medical rating, enlisted and was drafted into the Armored Corps. This young man would eventually become the most important bargaining chip possessed by a terrorist organization this century.
As Hamas proposed to release Shalit in exchange for every single female and under-18 Palestinian prisoner Israel said no. Three days after the kidnapping—and less than one year after Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza—IDF ground forces had entered Khan Yunus to rescue their lost soldier. The IDF used Shalit’s kidnapping to also express a war goal of decreasing the 757 rockets that had been launched into Israel since the disengagement. The IDF took on traditional warfare methods: raiding homes, interrogating suspects, but also fighting underground, seeking to eliminate the very means by which Hamas had kidnapped Shalit.
The war achieved some Israeli success,
Shalit Following His Release
Source: Wikimedia Commons
dividing Palestinian power between Fatah and Hamas, and successfully weakening military threats. However, a humanitarian crisis ensued, and Hamas was anything but dismantled. Most importantly, Israel didn’t have Shalit. After multiple diplomatic failures, including options through Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Egypt, and even the Vatican, Shalit was still not released. Despite the persistent publicity in Israeli media, including Shalit’s father meeting President Carter during his trip in Israel, Shalit was not returned. Through Hamas and mediated by Egypt, Shalit was able to send a handful of letters to his family. During the 2008-09 Gaza War, Hamas refused to negotiate with Israel. Eventually, Shalit’s release in October 2011 was accompanied by the return of 1,027 Palestinian Prisoners to their homes in the West Bank and Gaza.
In this deal was released Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks that killed about 1,200 Israelis, injured countless more, and resulted in 247 hostages taken into Gaza.
I support the hostage deal unequivocally. It is time for Israel to heal. It is time for Israelis and Palestinians to choose reasonable leadership that can usher in an unprecedented era of peace. However, broadly, supporters of Israel (not necessarily the current Israeli government) must question the dangers of releasing convicted Palestinian terrorists into Israeli society. In no way am I calling for Netanyahu to cancel the hostage deal. Nor am I supporting far-right radicals like Itamar Ben-Gvir. Instead, I am pointing out the similarities between the current deal and the 2011 exchange, and explaining how this may lead to more violence.
The current hostage deal, as it stands, presents a national security threat. Just last week, Hamas released four Israeli bodies, notably only after a humiliating parade of coffins attended by thousands of Gazans. In exchange were supposed to be 620 Palestinian prisoners, many sentenced to life in prison for violent crimes against Israeli civilians. The Israeli government delayed the deal until Hamas committed to release the hostages sans ceremony. While there are indeed many Palestinian prisoners wrongfully detained in the Israeli Prison system, which is anything but flawless, many inmates are also violent criminals who seek to attack Jewish Israelis for no reason other than their existence. Now-released terrorist Zakaria Zubeidi was the mastermind behind a bombing at a voting station in Israel’s North that killed five. Mahmoud Atallah killed a Palestinian woman under her alleged ties to Israel; he was later charged with raping an Israeli female prison guard. Khalil Jabarin, who stabbed an Israeli man to death outside a West Bank supermarket, had earned a monthly stipend ranging from about $500 to $1,100 as a part of the Palestinian Authority’s now-cancelled “pay-toslay” policy.
Gilad Shalit’s prisoner deal was
perhaps the first of many causes that led to the eventual October 7 attacks. While at this point Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and other Gaza-based terror groups are dramatically weaker than in October 2023, the mass destruction in Gaza has ushered in a new generation with views perhaps more closely aligned to the terrorist groups.
Israeli society has finally begun to heal. Families have been reunited.
Spouses have had the ultimate form of closure. But this hostage deal still remains worrisome. The worst of Palestinian society has been welcomed back to cities and towns across Gaza and the West Bank with wide open arms.
The future remains uncertain, and, frankly, bleak. Even though the hostage deal might not necessarily be the catalyst for peace, it is possible that, from the Arab-Israeli cultural disconnect, some miracle can occur, and we can live to see a day after.
RESEARCH PAPERS
Chinese-African Relations Moving Into the Second Decade of the 21st Century
Riley Marth ‘27
China’s relationship with Africa is a long and storied one. Some Chinese accounts say that China’s relations with Africa date back to the Tang Dynasty (618-907 AD) under the explorer De Huan1. Others say that Chinese-African relations dates as far back as the Han Dynasty (206 BC to 220 AD)2 and as far forward as Zheng He’s Voyages during the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644 AD)3. These relations ended during the Qing Dynasty (1644-192 AD) due to its policy of isolationism4. However, these relations were resumed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the 1950s, when Zhou Enlai signed a bilateral trade agreement, on behalf of Mao, with Alegria, Egypt, Guinea, Somalia, Morocco, and Sudan5. In the 1960s, Mao sent Zhou Enlai on a “ten country national tour of Africa”6 on which he promoted his “5 Principles of Peaceful Coexistence: 1)Mutual respect for each other’s territorial and sovereignty; 2) Mutual non-aggression; 3) Mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs; 4) Equality and cooperation for mutual benefit; and 5) Peaceful co-existence”7. These diplomatic moves were in conjunction with China taking on the first of many infrastructure projects in Africa, the Tanzania-Zambia Railway, which allowed eight Chinese officials to live and work in Africa, further deepening the ties between the two regions8. A second significantly larger wave of investment started in the 2000s when Chinese banks and companies began financing infrastructure projects, buying majority stakes in resource extraction, and giving these countries large loans9. These acquisitions are all under the guise of China’s Belt and Road Initiative,10 “China’s gargantuan overseas infrastructure push.”11 Many Western writers say this is a “Second Scramble for Africa’’ and China is trying to put African coun-
tries in debt slavery12. However, others say China’s presence is helpful13. China’s investments in Africa have grown from 74.8 million in 2003 to 4.2 billion as of 202114. China’s FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) stocks in Africa have increased one hundredfold, and they are now the fourth largest investor in Africa, beating out the United States.15 In order to make “the 21st Century China’s,” in Africa, they need to win back or strengthen the support of the African people, whether that be by propaganda or a change in policies, move their FDIs and other equity financing towards more sustainable markets and practices, and potentially make further use of the debt these African nations owe to China expanding its political influence and soft power.
The Chinese now need to retrieve or reinforce the public support of the African people. Between 2013 and 2023, African support for China has dropped from 78 to 48 percent.16 Another source states the approval rating stands at 63 percent.17 The 30 percent drop is particularly alarming for China because now, a majority of Africans don’t support the Chinese actions in Africa. Furthermore, in Zambia and Zimbabwe, China has been ignoring laws designed to protect the workers’ safety and right to assemble, such as poor safety conditions and 12-18 hour work shifts.18 In Nigeria, workers’ concerns are ignored, and they haven’t been supplied with safety masks at metal facilities.19 In Zambia, these conditions led to tensions between the Chinese and the Zambians, highlighted when Chinese managers shot into a crowd of protesters, hitting six of them, who were protesting for safety measures and healthcare rights.20 These were rights that had been guaranteed under Zambian law; however, they were thwarted by Chinese payoffs to the Zambian government.21 Events like these have led to public disapproval of the Chinese
the Chinese in Africa. In fact, Michel Sata won Zambia’s presidential election in part based on the anti-Chinese sentiment of the voter base.22 There are also concerns about how the Chinese run their business in Africa, such as unfair business practices, violation of local laws, and the environmental impact.23 Chinese factories pump toxic wastes into rivers and emit more toxins into the air than domestic African industries.24 On the contrary, other sources claim that “perception of China’s environmental impact in China is worse than reality.”25 China also sent unemployed Chinese people to work on projects in Africa in an attempt to circumvent labor rights law.26 This move not only led to pushback due to these migrant workers taking African jobs, but it was further exacerbated by these “Chinese workers displaying racist attitudes toward Africans (in Kenya) causing animosity between groups.”27 Some of the African nations have even taken action. The DRC has said 70-80 percent of workers must be local, but corruption and bribes prevent its complete implementation.28 To address this problem, China would ideally clean up its act. However, that seems not to be the case as China is moving to use propaganda to win back the African populus, evidenced by the fact that 94 percent of China’s exports to Africa are telecommunications equipment,29 insinuating that China could eventually control media access to a vast majority of Africans. However, currently “only 2 percent of Kenyans and South Africans listen to CRI (the CCP’s podcast) and read the China Daily, and only 6 percent of Kenyans and 7 percent of South Africans watch CGTN (CCP tv).”30 The Chinese need to regain
Source: Stefan R. Landsberger
favor among the Africans, but the means of accomplishing this should be through a policy change. Nevertheless, China will probably use a machiavellian and almost dystopian control and censorship of African media to win back the Africans’ support.
Moreover, the Chinese need to find more sustainable markets for their FDIs and other capital investments. Currently, it seems China is more interested in Africa’s significant deposits of natural resources than in working in partnership for sustained development.31 This will eventually result in African nations depleting their natural resources and revenue without any alternative. Likewise, China will be without a significant supplier of its raw resources. In fact, of the total African exports to China, 87 percent were extracted resources.32 These resources consisted mainly of oil, copper, iron ore, and “alumina commodities.”33 The graph below (figure 1) shows that an enormous 2.15 percent of Africa’s total GDP is exported to China in the form of “extractives,” natural resources.34 In conjunction with a majority of Chinese FDI investments centered on copper, alumina, and iron ore, finite resources,35 makes China’s investment in Africa unsustainable both financially and ecologically, destroying Africa’s environment and their future economic prospects. This is in the face of Africa’s immense untapped solar potential.
In fact, South Africa has created the “Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme,” proving that solar energy is viable in South Africa.36 Additionally, solar energy seems to be a convenient solution for the increased energy demand brought on by higher CO2 emissions for the nations of Africa.37 There is also a largely untapped pharmacological resource that would be useful for both “Chinese traditional medicine” and regulated pharmaceuticals.38 In particular, the Chinese traditional medicine market was projected to be 115 billion in 202039, ballooning to 218 billion as of 2024,40 illustrating that this market will sustain its growth. These sectors would be at least somewhat sustainable in comparison to the drilling of oil, the mining of iron ore, and other natural resources since it isn’t dependent on non-renewable goods.
Propaganda Promoting Chinese Medical Aid
However, there are concerns among Africans that their “traditional African pharmacopeia” will be eclipsed by the regulated pharmaceutical markets.41 In addition, given the Chinese track record of ignoring local laws and regulations, the quality could be a considerable hindrance to this industry because it is essential not to make harmful products. China needs to find new market investments, such as solar energy and pharmaceuticals, that will be more viable and not rely so heavily upon finite resources such as extractives. Additionally, China needs to further, as they have in the past, use the enormous debt of African nations to further their political goals. The total amount of Chinese-African loans currently stands at 170.4 billion USD,42 with China’s largest African debtors being Angola (20.98 billion), Ethiopia (6.82 billion), Kenya (6.69 billion), Zambia (5.73 billion), and Egypt (5.21 billion).43 See Figure 2. Zambia, Ghana, and Ethiopia have defaulted on those debts in the past three years.44 Furthermore, African nations vote in a bloc and makeup 53 out of 192 nations represented in the UN.45 Consequently, the Chinese have and will use these debts for political gain and influence. For example, the former leader of China, Hu Jintao, said he “would cancel all interest-free loans of heavily indebted nations with diplomatic ties to China.”46 The phrasing of “diplomatic ties” is significant because it means that these African nations vote according to China’s demands. The earliest example of this was when African nations collectively voted not to condemn China for the Tiananmen Square massacre.47 Likewise, China’s debt clout has been repeatedly used on the issues of Taiwan’s independence and Hong Kong’s autonomy.48 “During a China-Africa Summit on Solidarity Against Covid 19,”49 thirteen African nations, including the leaders of Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia, and the chair of the African Union said, “The
African side supports China’s position on Taiwan and Hong Kong and supports China’s efforts to safeguard national security in Hong Kong in accordance with laws.”50 Also, Uganda sided with China, making a statement in 2019 during the Hong Kong protests, stating they “firmly support the one country two systems policy of the People’s Republic of China on the matter of Hong Kong and other areas.”51 The “other areas” most likely refer to China’s One China Policy on Taiwan. China’s increased investments in Africa were partially in response to Taiwanese moves to gain recognition from African nations.52 To further advance China’s global policies and goals in Africa, it should continue to utilize the Chinese debt of these African nations to exert its soft power and influence. If the Chinese are to make the 21st century “China’s century,” they need to regain or bolster the public support of the African people, invest their capital more sustainably in non-finite and renewable resources, and continue to take advantage of the African nations financial debt to China to further its interests on the African continent and the world stage.
Endnotes
1) David Hamilton Shinn and Joshua Eisenman, China’s Relations with Africa : a New Era of Strategic Engagement (New York: Columbia University Press, 2023).
2) David N. Abdulai, Chinese Investment in Africa : How African Countries Can Position Themselves to Benefit... from China’s Foray into Africa (n.p.: ROUTLEDGE, 2020), [Page 2].
3) Chris Alden, China in Africa Chris Alden (London, England: Zed Books, 2021), 18.
4) Shinn and Eisenman, China’s Relations.
5) Ibid.
6) Sabella Ogbobode Abidde and Tokunbo A. Ayoola, China in Africa : between Imperialism and Partnership in Humanitarian Development (Lanham: Lexington Books, 2023), [Page 5].
7) Ibid.
8) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, [Page 53].
9) Abidde and Ayoola, China in Africa, 177. 10) Ibid.
11) Megha Mandavia, “China’s Belt and Road Plan Is Down, Not out,” Wall Street Journal (New York, New York/USA), January 9, 2023, accessed May 17, 2024, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-belt-and-roadplan-is-down-not-out-11673276687.
12) Abidde and Ayoola, China in Africa, 105.
13) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 43.
14) Yike Fu, “The Quiet China-Africa Revolution: Chinese Investment,” The Diplomat, November 22, 2021, accessed May 17, 2024, https://thediplomat. com/2021/11/the-quiet-china-africa-revolution-chinese-investment/.
15) Ibid.
16) Shinn and Eisenman, China’s Relations.
17) Eleanor Albert, “China in Africa,” Council on Foreign Relations, July 17, 2017.
18) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 91.
19) Ibid, 91.
20) Editors of Harvard review, “Chinese Investment in Africa: A Reexamination of the Zambian Debt Crisis,” Harvard International Review, January 25, 2023, accessed May 18, 2024, https://hir.harvard.edu/chinese-investment-in-africa-a-reexamination-of-the-zambian-debt-crisis/.
21) Ibid.
22) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 91 .
23) Ibid.
24) Ibid.
25) Albert, “China in Africa.”
26) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 93.
27) Abidde and Ayoola, China in Africa, 177.
28) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 96.
29) Editors of BU Global Development Policy Center, “China-Africa Economic Bulletin, 2024 Edition,” BU Global Development Policy Center, April 1, 2024, accessed May 18, 2024, https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2024/04/01/china-africa-economic-bulletin-2024-edition/.
30) Shinn and Eisenman, China’s Relations.
31) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 1.
32) Ibid.
33) Editors of BU Global Development Policy Center, “China-Africa Economic.”
34) Ibid.
35) Ibid.
36) O. O. Craig, A. C. Brent, and F. Dinter, “THE CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY ECONOMICS of CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP) in SOUTH AFRICA.,” South African Journal of Industrial Engineering 28, no. 3 (2017): , https://doi. org/10.7166/28-3-1835.
37) Ibid.
38) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 58.
39) Ibid.
40) 360 Trending Reports, “Traditional Chinese Medicine Market Size with Massive Data Volume and Top Companies Data | 103+ Pages Report,” Linkedin, last modified February 26, 2024, accessed May 18, 2024, https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/traditional-chinese-medicine-market-size-massive-ib20e.
41) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 58.
42) Editors of BU Global Development Policy Center, “China-Africa Economic.”
43) Ibid.
44) Ibid.
45) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 85.
46) Ibid.
47) Abdulai, Chinese Investment, 85
48) Shinn and Eisenman, China’s Relations.
49) Ibid.
50) Ibid.
51) Ibid.
52) Abidde and Ayoola, China in Africa, 185.
Bibliography
360 Trending Reports. “Traditional Chinese Medicine Market Size with Massive Data Volume and Top Companies Data | 103+ Pages Report.” Linkedin. Last modified February 26, 2024. Accessed May 18, 2024.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/traditional-chinese-medicine-market-size-massive-ib20e.
Abdulai, David N. Chinese Investment in Africa : How African Countries Can Position Themselves to Benefit... from China’s Foray into Africa. N.p.: ROUTLEDGE, 2020.
Abidde, Sabella Ogbobode, and Tokunbo A. Ayoola. China in Africa : between Imperialism and Partnership in Humanitarian Development. Lanham: Lexington Books, 2023.
Albert, Eleanor. “China in Africa.” Council on Foreign Relations, July 17, 2017.
Alden, Chris. China in Africa Chris Alden. London, England: Zed Books, 2021.
Craig, O. O., A. C. Brent, and F. Dinter. “THE CURRENT AND FUTURE ENERGY ECONOMICS of CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER (CSP) in SOUTH AFRICA.” South African Journal of Industrial Engineering 28, no. 3 (2017): 1-14. https://doi.org/10.7166/28-3-1835.
Editors of BU Global Development Policy Center. “China-Africa Economic Bulletin, 2024 Edition.” BU Global Development Policy Center, April 1, 2024. Accessed May 18, 2024. https://www.bu.edu/gdp/2024/04/01/china-africa-economic-bulletin-2024-edition/.
Editors of Harvard review. “Chinese Investment in Africa: A Reexamination of the Zambian Debt Crisis.” Harvard International Review, January 25, 2023. Accessed May 18, 2024. https://hir.harvard.edu/chinese-investment-in-africa-a-reexamination-of-the-zambian-debt -crisis/.
Fu, Yike. “The Quiet China-Africa Revolution: Chinese Investment.” The Diplomat, November 22, 2021. Accessed May 17, 2024. https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/the-quiet-china-africa-revolution-chinese-investment/.
Mandavia, Megha. “China’s Belt and Road Plan Is Down, Not out.” Wall Street Journal (New York, New York/USA), January 9, 2023. Accessed May 17, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-beltand-road-plan-is-down-not-out-11673276687.
Shinn, David Hamilton, and Joshua Eisenman. China’s Relations with Africa : a New Era of Strategic Engagement. New York: Columbia University Press, 2023.
Zhang, Hong. “From Contractors to Investors? Evolving Engagement of Chinese State Capital in Global Infrastructure Development and the Case of Lekki Port in Nigeria.” China Africa Research Initiative, January 2023. Accessed May 17, 2024. https://static1.squarespace.com/ static/5652847de4b033f56d2bdc29/t/63ebdaab742ed67a0 a96b5f3/1676401324873/ WP+53-+Hong+Zhang+-+January+2023+-+V2. pdf.
Space Travel: A Prodigious Source of Economic,
Innovational, and Inspirational and a Catalyst For International Cooperation
Sebastian Stafford ‘29
In 2025, America intends once again to set foot on the Moon. Through NASA’s Artemis program, an American crew will not only visit and plant a flag on the Moon, they will explore staying, living, and prospering. Artemis also plans to use the Moon as a hub to send humans to Mars. While skeptics have long questioned America’s commitment to space exploration, it is undeniable that America’s historic investments in space exploration have benefitted innovation, culture, and economics, all while fostering international cooperation, and that
Artemis will continue this legacy. However, America’s interest in space was originally set in motion by international competition. From 1955 to 1975, America and the Soviet Union were both aiming to be the dominant military power in the world, using space as a frontier for their race. Their competition earned a nickname: the Space Race. For most of the Space Race, America trailed the Soviet Union. In the early years, the Soviet Union accomplished never-before-seen feats, such as putting the first satellite in orbit and putting the first human in space. In response, America created the Apollo program. The Apollo program
Artemis 1 Rocket
Photo Credits: NASA
was run by NASA and included the launch of fourteen rocket missions to the Moon. On July 20, 1969, twelve years after the Soviet Union started the Space Race with their satellites, the American Apollo 11 crew landed on the Moon. They became the first humans to ever walk on its surface, putting America ahead of the Soviet Union, and ending the Space Race. Even without the fiery competition of the Space Race, Americans have continued to look to the stars, and society has continued to benefit. From its beginnings to today, space travel has consistently generated massively positive economic, social, innovational, and inspirational benefits, fostered international cooperation, and inspired millions to pursue careers in science and explore the universe.
To truly understand the importance of space travel, one has to take a step back and understand its history. During the Space Race, America and the Soviet Union had different, strong motivators to win the contest. Both countries wanted to be the dominant military power globally. The Americans and Soviets also wanted “to prove their technological and intellectual superiority” (Royal Museums Greenwich, 2023), through accomplishing space exploration firsts. However, to President John F. Kennedy, the Space Race was also an opportunity for America to work as a whole. This is shown in Kennedy’s famous speech “We Choose to Go to the Moon” where he stated, “But in a very real sense, it will not be one man going to the Moon—if we make this judgment affirmatively, it will be an entire nation. For all of us must work to put him there” (Saari et al. 2005). Kennedy’s “We choose to go to the Moon” speech became a pivotal moment in the space program, rallying the nation behind a mission that was far from certain (Jones, 2022). Never before had science and space exploration been made a top national priority. Following his famous “We Choose the Moon” speech, citizens responded immediately to Kennedy’s vision, and in turn “thousands of young people dreamed of becoming astronauts or rocket scientists, and college enrollments skyrocketed. Students studied science, and as people entered scientific professions the United States became an increasingly technological society”
“We
choose to go to the Moon,” 1962
Photo Credits: NASA
high-temperature alloys used in jet engine turbines, cameras found in today’s cell phones, compact water-purification systems, global search-and-rescue systems, and biomedical technologies” (NASA, 2013). In the International Space Station’s (ISS) Zero Gravity environment, scientists are studying areas such as human physiology, plant biology, materials science, and fundamental physics. This research yields insights that benefit society. For example, “studies of the human body’s response to extended periods in the microgravity environment of the ISS are improving understanding of the human aging process” (NASA, 2013). Space innovation has also prompted the development of many household items. For instance, the common everyday handheld vacuum cleaner was an invention pioneered for space travel. During the Apollo era, “NASA partnered with Black & Decker to invent various battery-powered tools for drilling and taking rock samples in space. This led to the creation of the ultra-light, compact, cordless DustBuster” (NASA, 2016). Another case in point of common technology pioneered through Space travel is cell phone cameras. In the 1990s, “NASA engineer Eric Fossum invented what would become NASA’s most ubiquitous spinoff, digital image sensors based on complementary metal oxide semiconductors. These were significantly smaller and more efficient than the charge-coupled-device imagers of the day and eventually enabled tiny, battery-friendly cell phone cameras” (NASA, 2017). This NASA-originated technology has
become standard in modern phone and computer cameras. The innovations in technology, as well as the development of new fields of study, propagated from humanity’s quest for space have triggered scientific advancements that have changed the world.
Space travel has also had, and will continue to have, a huge positive economic impact. From an employment perspective, the global space sector employed “around 1 million persons around the world in 2017. Around 350,000 full-time employees are active in the United States, 200,000 in the Russian Federation, and around 60,000 in Europe,” (Dunbar, 2022). According to a report by NASA, their “economic impact goes well beyond its immediate employment footprint. Wide-ranging benefits are created for local and state economies as well as the U.S. economy, as NASA contracts for goods and services boost activity throughout the economy. NASA generates an estimated $7.7 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenues throughout the U.S. annually, and for each million dollars-worth of output produced by NASA, an additional $7.2 million of output is produced throughout the national economy” (NASA et al. 2022). Economic benefits could also come from space itself, through the potential mining of mineral-rich asteroids and planets. In 2017, NASA announced, “a new mission to a metal-rich asteroid called 16 Psyche. The metals that 16 Psyche is thought to contain would be worth $100 quintillion on Earth in metals” (McGrath, Grace Eliza Goodwin, Jenny. 2023). There is also growing financial investment in space tourism. As stated by NASA, “May 2012 saw the first resupply mission to the ISS by a privately-owned space vehicle. Hundreds of millions of dollars of private capital have been invested in the development of human space transportation and habitation systems with relevance to potential future space-based industries such as tourism” (NASA, 2013). In sum, space travel has generated, and continues to generate, multidimensional economic benefits.
While America’s eagerness to pursue space exploration began in a bitter, Cold-Wardriven Space Race, over time, space exploration has evolved into a beautiful showcase
of global collaboration. After U.S. astronauts circled the moon, the Kremlin acknowledged a “new stage in the universal culture of Earth” (Anderson, 2019), a comment that indicated prior rivals were moving beyond nationalism. This shift from -competition to collaboration highlights space exploration’s unifying potential. Another illustration of this same dynamic comes from the iconic Apollo 8 “Earthrise” photo. This photograph taken in lunar orbit by astronaut William Anders (NASA, 2023a) radically reshaped perceptions of Earth and fueled environmental awareness around the world, sparking the creation of Earth Day. “Earthrise” brought to life how fragile the planet’s life-support systems are. According to Sanjoy Som, co-founder of the Blue Marble Space Institute of Science, “Before the Apollo program, people didn’t have a sense of scale of what it meant to be on a planet floating through the solar system. There’s really not much that’s keeping us alive. That idea of Earth’s fragility resonated” (Bartels, 2018). Som further argues, “It seemed like we really needed to mend our ways in terms of our relationship to the planet because it is fragile in some ways and that photograph really shows it” (Bartels, 2018). Today, the most dramatic example of international cooperation is the International Space Station. As NASA describes, “an international partnership of space agencies provides and operates the elements of the ISS. The principals are the space agencies of the United States, Russia, Europe, Japan, and Canada.
Apollo 8 “Earthrise” Photo
Photo Credits: NASA
The ISS has been the most politically complex space exploration program ever undertaken” (NASA, 2023b). According to the Space Station Research Integration Office, the office which represents all research on the ISS, “over 20 years of research and 3,300 experiments” have only been possible because of international cooperation on the ISS (Space Station Research Integration Office, 2022). In short, in a world full of conflict, space exploration has provided, and continues to provide, a unique arena for global cooperation where all nations benefit from working together.
Nearly fifty years post-Apollo 11, the drive to explore the universe shows no signs of slowing. Just as Manifest Destiny spurred westward expansion across the American continent during the 1800s, the Apollo missions inspired America’s expansion into space. In the book Beyond: Our Future in Space, Chris Impey echoes this observation, writing that a sense of “wanderlust… reminiscent of Wild West expansion, is part of our human DNA” (Hays, 2015). Space exploration invites an unequaled opportunity for reflection. As NASA writes, today’s modern space missions offer a “unique perspective on humanity’s place, answering profound questions about the Universe, destiny, uniqueness, and potential extraterrestrial life” (NASA, 2013). In essence, space exploration serves the important human need to explore the universe and contemplate philosophical questions about the meaning of life.
From its modest origins to today, space travel has successfully generated massively positive economic, social, innovational, and inspirational benefits, boosted international cooperation, and inspired millions to pursue careers in science and explore the universe. Fierce competition between America and the Soviet Union defined the early days of the race to explore and conquer space. However, in the words of longtime NPR journalist Dustin Jones, “Space exploration has come a long way since Kennedy kicked America’s space program into overdrive” (Jones, 2022). The innovations in technology, as well as the development of new fields of study, propagated from society’s quest for space have led to scientific
advancements that have changed the world. The economic benefits have been equally vast, and the Artemis missions are on track to impact the global economy once again. Finally, ISS is an unparalleled example of how a shared quest can bring disparate global interests together for a common goal. With Artermis poised to relaunch America to new space heights, it is reasonable to believe the future of space exploration will continue to generate an ever-expanding range of benefits, all while fostering awe and curiosity among rising generations of explorers.
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Davis, Maddie. 2020. “The Space Race.” Miller Center. University of Virginia. September 11, 2020. https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/ educational-resources/space-race.
Dunbar, Brian. 2022. “NASA’s Economic Benefit Reaches All 50 States.” NASA. NASA. October 27, 2022. https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/ nasa-s-economic-benefit-reaches-all-50states.
European Space Agency. 2019. “Why Go to Mars?” Esa.int. 2019. https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Human_and_Robotic_Exploration/Exploration/Why_go_to_Mars.
Green, Jamie. “Befouling The Final Frontier.” New York Times. November 5, 2023. https:// www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/magazine/ commercial-satellites-space-junk.html.
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That’s Not Why It’s Going There.” Business Insider. October 13, 2023. https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-visit-psyche-asteroid-worth-more-than-entire-world-economy-2023-10.
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Howard, Don “The Moral Imperative of a Permanent, Human Presence on the Moon, Mars, and beyond – Science Matters.” Blog.nd.edu. Accessed September 17, 2023. https://donhoward-blog.nd.edu/2019/07/10/the-moral-imperative-of-a-human-return-to-space/.
Jones, Dustin. 2022. “How Space Exploration Has Changed, 60 Years since JFK’s ‘We Choose the Moon’ Speech.” NPR, September 12, 2022, sec. Space. https://www.npr. org/2022/09/12/1122375097/space-exploration-jfk-we-choose-the-moon-speech.
Kelly, Matt. 2022. “Astronomer: Moon Mission Can Reignite Interest in Space and Science.” UVA Today. August 31, 2022. https://news. virginia.edu/content/astronomer-moon-mission-can-reignite-interest-space-and-science.
Magazine, Smithsonian, and Elizabeth Gamillo. 2022. “This Metal-Rich, Potato-Shaped Asteroid Could Be Worth $10 Quintillion.” Smithsonian Magazine. January 4, 2022. https:// www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/asteroid-16-psyche-may-be-worth-more-thanplanet-earth-at-10-quintillion-in-fine-metals-180979303/
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From Grace to DOGE: How Trump and Musk are reshaping federal spending to close the deficit
Lucien Davis ’26
The federal debt has climbed to $36 trillion, and debt interest payments now consume $881 billion annually, 16% of the federal budget.1 Interest spending has more than doubled in the last three years, and is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2026.2
To combat the rising deficit, Trump created the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) last January, making it the most recent in a long line of executive attempts to cut federal debt by implementing government efficiency. Fifteen years ago, Obama’s National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform came up with an ambitious plan to eliminate the deficit entirely. However, the commission’s members voted against the final submission of the proposals. Before that, in 1993, Clinton established the Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform with the same goals. Unfortunately, its congressional members never arrived at a consensus for specific solutions; its only accomplishment was forming a vague outline of recognizedly wasteful issues. The last cost-cutting effort that bore any fruit came in 1982 under Reagan. The PSSCC (Private Sector Survey on Cost Control), popularly referred to as the Grace Commission for its chairman J. Peter Grace, assembled corporate America’s finest, including the CEO of Exxon, the chair of Chase Manhattan Bank, and the President of Coca-Cola, to “cut back on waste and mismanagement.”34 Their early findings grabbed headlines, but unfortunately, most of their projected savings relied on an unwilling Congress to pass drastic proposals to restructure federal entitlements. J. Peter Grace was the charismatic CEO of W.R. Grace & Co. an international industrial chemical giant. Like Elon Musk, DOGE’s senior advisor, he was known to rally the public with
bold claims of rampant government inefficiency while garnering criticism for potential conflicts of interest and drastic proposals. Like DOGE, the Grace Commission relied on private leadership to apply corporate efficiency to government. The two efforts are strikingly similar. The major difference is that DOGE has taken much more action. Grace was faced with a reluctant Liberal Congress, and Reagan decided not to force his way in order to keep support for other plans. Trump, however, is equipped with a slight Congressional majority and a willingness to venture into a ‘legal gray area’, as he takes the reins from Congress. DOGE has served as a double-edged sword for the Trump administration. Musk has made fiscal cuts by cancelling contracts, cutting government jobs, and modernizing administrative processes, while propelling Trump’s ideological mission. The Department has terminated thousands of federal grants for scientific research, climate change initiatives, and DEI programs, saving tens of billions in government spending and stirring national controversy in the process.5 On April 18th, they cut 402 “wasteful DEI grants,” creating $233 million in savings in a single day. Musk’s team also recently cancelled hundreds of environmental justice grants, bringing total savings from the EPA up to $2 billion.
Uncoincidentally, DOGE has slashed programs abroad in accordance with Trump’s desire to reduce our foreign presence. Marco Rubio announced in March that they had cancelled 83% of the United States Agency for International Development’s contracts (USAID), approximately 5,200 of some 6,200 grants.6 On April 14th, DOGE and the Trump Administration proposed “to halve the State Department
budget”, which would cancel 30 missions abroad and cut foreign aid by 75%. This proposal, if enacted, would save $30 million for next fiscal year.7 In general, DOGE has painted aid programs, both foreign and domestic, as a thinly disguised slush fund for Liberal causes.
David Stockman, Reagan’s former budget director, hurriedly published a book entitled “How to Cut 2 Trillion” as something of an open letter to Musk upon his DOGE assignment. Stockman points out that cutting government employment, even entire departments, mathematically can do very little to close the 2 trillion dollar deficit gap. Stockman points out what all budget watchers know – meaningful budget progress cannot happen without major cuts to entitlements (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) and Defense. Musk has thus made social spending a key target as well. Within days of his appointment, he seized control of SSA records and claimed there were millions of dead beneficiaries on Social Security rolls. Further, the Trump administration and DOGE have made implications that illegal immigrants have been given Social Security numbers to access Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. These claims are, as of yet, unsubstantiated. What is clear is that DOGE is preparing to cut 7,000 Social Security Administration employees, around 12% of its workforce, and close 6 of the administration’s 10 regional offices. Many argue that these are poorly disguised backdoor benefit cuts designed to reduce access to government aid.8
Ultimately, DOGE’s Reagan-era ancestor, the Grace Commission, failed to close the deficit gap because the promised bounty of “fraud and waste” was not big enough. What is possibly different today is that Grace’s prickly Congress has been replaced with an extremely pliant one. Grace operatives did not have the power to fire, cut programs, or unenroll beneficiaries – they
wrote reports, not pink slips. They also did not have the gumption to tread upon Congressional mandates, threaten to “primary” anyone who complains, and use the might of the Justice Department to threaten any law firm daring to challenge them or any “activist judge” willing to rule against them. If deficit reduction is to be achieved, it will mathematically have to come from cuts to these popular programs. It remains to be seen if Congress will sit idly and let a small band of Musk’s men do the work for them.
References:
1. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/ interest-debt-grow-past-1-trillionnext-year#:~:text=Net%20interest%20 has%20been%20exploding,to%20 %24881%20billion%20in%202024.
2. https://www.pgpf.org/article/ high-interest-rates-left-their-mark-onthe-budget/
3. Grace, J. Peter. “A Private Sector Survey, California, Inc.” In Burning Money; The Waste of Your Tax Dollars, 49. New York City, USA: Macmillan Publishing Company, 1984.
4. “Remarks to the Reagan Administration Executive Forum.” Ronald Reagan Presidential Library & Museum. Accessed March 10, 2025. https://www. reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/ remarks-reagan-administration-executive-forum-0.
5.https://doge.gov
6. https://www.usatoday.com/ story/news/politics/2025/04/14/trumpcut-state-department-slash-foreignaid/83087292007/
7. https://www.epi.org/blog/ what-is-doge-doing-to-social-security/
Why the Top US Economists are Predicting a Crash or Recession
Samuel Leviton ’28
In 2008, investors panicked as many major stock indexes fell below 50% of their previous highs. While many renowned global and national economists predict the American economy will suffer a recession in 2025, it is doubtful that another significant crash will occur. That said, newly imposed international trade tariffs, high inflation rates, and government instability leave many investors and economists predicting that the stock market will suffer a severe economic downturn in the coming months.
Who is predicting what?
According to analysts at J.P. Morgan, “There is about a 40% chance of U.S. recession this year…”1 These analysts attribute this 40% figure to uncertainty with the current presidential office. The temporary implications of international trade tariffs set in place by President Trump played a prominent role in the firm’s prediction. The firm also stated the chances of a recession could soar up to 50% depending on whether the tariffs are fully set into place in the coming months.2
Another major firm, Goldman Sachs, has also recently increased their predictions for a market recession. Their analysts have predicted that there is a roughly 20% chance of a recession.3 This percentage is frequently rising due to worries about governmental instability and the implementation of tariffs. Over the last two weeks, the Goldman prediction increased from 15% to 20%.4
The Moody’s Corporation has also recently raised its own prediction for a recession. According to the Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, Mark Zandi, their current estimation for the recession probability gauge is 35%.5 This number is actively rising mainly due to political instability. Moody’s claims other reasons for the rising figure include the various tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, and issues with consumer interest and pur-
chasing.
Why are these predictions being made?
Many of the most prominent financial groups and top economists have two essential reasons for the high probability of a 2025 recession. The first is the current political instability due to the Presendital Office, mainly through tariffs on Mexico, China, and Canada. President Trump plans to implement the following taxes on imported goods into the US: 25% for Canada and Mexico and 10% for China.6 Tariffs on imported goods are known to increase stock market variability and risk due to the uncertainty they produce in many public companies. If these tariffs planned by the President come to fruition, the probability of a stock market recession would skyrocket. The second reason for a recession is the decrease in consumer spending. The stock market thrives when people spend, and a decline in purchases would lower overall US economic activity. As of the most recent inflation checks in 2025, “The latest reading of the U.S. inflation rate clocked in at 3%, higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.”7 A higher inflation rate hurts the average consumer, which decreases consumer spending and investing, hurting the stock market. Another factor that could decrease consumer spending sprouts from government spending. As it stands, the US government is in a budget deficit. This could lead to higher interest rates for borrowers, leading to less money spent in the stock market and less spending from the average consumer.
What has happened so far?
On March 13th of this year, the S&P 500 officially entered a correction, as it dropped 10.1% from its peak in February.8 A market correction is when a primary stock market index, such as the S&P 500, drops 10% or more from a recent peak. Since 1974, there have been only 27 different corrections.9 Once this
drop reaches 20% or more, it is called a bear market, and of the 27 corrections in the last 50 years, only six have reached the bear market threshold.10 A recession usually accompanies a bear market, though not always, so a bear market would likely be a sign pointing toward a recession. This may sound gloomy for the probability of a recession, but it is essential to acknowledge that only 22% of corrections turn into bear markets. What is next?
With a correction already completed and many top economists and firms estimating a high recession probability, the outcome may very well be a significant downturn for the stock market.
One thing J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Moody’ stated in common was that it was not time to panic. Even if a recession were to happen tomorrow, the government would likely help “bail out” larger companies to prevent bankruptcy. In addition to this, the market has consistently shown that it will eventually return to its previous form after a recession.
The most likely scenario for a recession revolves around governmental instability and the implementation of tariffs on major countries. If the government continues to produce vulnerabilities, the stock market will likely reflect that. If permanent tariffs are placed on major importers of goods into the US, the stock market will likely take a long-term hit. There is no surefire way of knowing if the stock market will enter a recession or fully crash, but it will likely be unstable for the foreseeable future.
References:
1. Reuters, “J.P. Morgan economist sees 40% US recession chance and risks to ‘exorbitant privilege,’” Reuters, last modified March 12, 2025, accessed March 20, 2025, https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/jp-morgan-economist-sees-40us-recession-chance-risks-exorbitantprivilege-2025-03-12
2. Vivien Lou Chen, “Goldman
Sachs says there’s now a 20% chance of a recession over next 12 months,” Market Watch, Dow Jones & Company, last modified March 8, 2025, accessed March 20, 2025, https://www.marketwatch.com/ livecoverage/stock-market-today-dows-p-500-and-nasdaq-set-for-tentativegains-after-the-worst-day-of-the-year/ card/goldman-sachs-says-there-s-now-a20-chance-of-a-recession-over-next-12months-W81LsV60jIhlSdbBvRiB.
3. Max Zhang, “Recession risks are rising, economists say. Here’s what to know.,” ABC News, American Broadcasting Company, last modified March 10, 2025, accessed March 20, 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/Business/recession-risks-rising-economists/story?id=119626246.
4. U.S. Office of Digital Strategy, “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Imposes Tariffs on Imports from Canada, Mexico and China,” The White House, last modified February 1, 2025, accessed March 20, 2025, https://www.whitehouse. gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-imposes-tariffson-imports-from-canada-mexico-andchina/.
5. Brian O’Connell, “Will the Stock Market Crash in 2025?,” ed. Jordan Schultz, U.S. News & World Report, last modified March 5, 2025, accessed March 20, 2025, https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/will-the-stock-marketcrash-risk-factors.
6. CNBC News, Why uncertainty makes the stock market go haywire, last modified March 19, 2025, accessed March 20, 2025, https://www.cnbc. com/2025/03/19/why-uncertaintymakes-the-stock-market-go-haywire. html.
7. Mark Riepe, “Market Correction: What Does It Mean?,” Charles Schwab, last modified March 14, 2025, accessed March 20, 2025, https://www.schwab. com/learn/story/market-correctionwhat-does-it-mean.
