Sign of the Times
Sign of the times 2014 ● This is our fifth annual review of consumer trends. ● It brings together a combination of primary research and observations from our in-house team.
● Six group discussions were conducted in January 2014 to probe consumer motivations and a series of quantitative surveys have also contributed to this report.
● If you have any queries or would like to arrange a run
through of the full deck please contact us on 01 2057500 or mail us at info@banda.ie.
2
Key Headlines ● Are we there yet? - belief and doubt about an upturn ● A country divided - city buzz and country cynicism ● The view from here - when the media view seems like another country
● Retail shifts - the rise of Aldi ● Pride and shame - being Irish in 2014 ● A three speed Ireland? – who benefits, who is left out ● Smartphone enabled lives - but can we switch off? ● Me TV – more choice, less variety ● Baby steps - little indicators we trust
3
Local news
4
International news
5
Celebrity news
6
In the frame!
7
“We just want to believe it’s going to get better. This is going to be the year.”
8
So, are we or aren’t we?
Want to believe in upturn ...
But diaspora wait and see... 9
“It’s not that you don’t have the money, it’s that you are always afraid of something going wrong somewhere down the road.”
10
Stabilisation, rather than growth More settled period
‘The rot has stopped’
Caution
Equilibrium
11
Half full or half empty? ●
When we review almost any market, we find variations are much deeper by demographics than previously.
●
Social class divisions are deeper, and while everyone seems to be impacted by job loss, sense of job security, reduced income etc., this has persisted and deepened with working class and those out of work.
●
There is also a distinct variation between Dublin, the commuter belt around Dublin and the rest of the country.
●
In a similar way, young families with kids are often the most hard-pressed, caught out by negative equity, while young professionals and empty nesters (if they’re still in work) have maintained some level of equilibrium.
12
Ready to move on?
Dublin +7 Outside -9
Balance +/10
-4
0 Looking Back
-10
-20
Looking Forward
-20 -30
-50
-65
-60 -70
-74
-58
-54
-58
-50 -74
-76
-100
-70
-72
-88 Mar
-93
May
-91 Sept
-86 Nov
2009
-81 Mar
-59 -69
-50 -60
-56
-57
May
Sept
-64
-36 -44
-51
-53
Feb
Apr
-27
-25
-7
-31
Dublin +6 Outside -12
-46
-62
-82 July
Nov
Jan
2010
Initial shock!
-52 -64
-86
-80 -90
-44
-45
-40
-39
-18
Apr
July
Nov
2011
Mar
Nov
2012
July
Sept
Dec
2013
Feb
2014
Towards positivity
Despair!
Readjustment
Just a ‘speedbump’
(IMF Bailout)
A ‘new reality’
Will return to ‘normal’
Changing for good
Value sought everywhere
Switch off to doom and gloom
Uplift in consumer mood pre budget
But Dublin vs outside Dublin divide evident.
Q.1
Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year?
Q.2
And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year? Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report
13
Under Pressure
Employer Trust deficit
No jobs/ No progression?
No holidays Caught out (generation)
Living on savings
Hang on to ‘essentials’ (PHI etc.) No credit card, no direct debit
14
“You only have to walk up Harcourt Street on a Tuesday night and all the pubs would be heaving.”
15
City Buzz City life picking up
Restaurant Deals
Unmortgaged spending
Pub lunches
Return of the Native
16
Cynicism evident… “You read that stuff in the media alright, but I dunno, I don’t see any of it around here”
“Best country in the world to do business? Try getting a loan from the bank for your business and see how good it is” “Look, it’s good. It’s better than the headlines we were getting, but we’re only getting it ‘cause we took our medicine like good kids…” 17
In towns like Sligo.. “Half the shops in Quayside are empty”
“People just don’t have the money to go out anymore”
..a sober reality “Town is dead. The bars that used to be hopping – Fiddlers, The Garavogue – they’re not half as busy as they used to be”
18
“The Troika wouldn’t mean anything to me, but the media were building it up as this is a very significant event.”
19
A media recovery? Wait and see‌ Official figures don’t connect
Are there signs I can trust?
20
Pride & Progress Improved Road Network Luas
Bridges & Buildings
Exiting Bailout
Investors’ Return
21
“Listening to the radio in the car the other day and my son said I am never giving money to charity again. Listening to Rehab and she is getting €240,000.”
22
Shame & Loathing Not run properly
Knee-jerk policies
Charity top up anger
Tax Haven Ireland
Elite Protected
23
3 Speed Ireland? Recovery is not equal‌
Recoverers
Strugglers Golden circle 24
“We haven’t had a holiday really in 5 years. I took the kids up to Donegal to stay with friends for a weekend last year but that was it. With the mortgage and the bills, you just can’t afford to.”
25
Strugglers Behind on payments Lost job
Resentment
Poor quality jobs
Getting on with it Local town depressed
26
Personal Impact of Recession
Base: 1003 adults aged 16+, 3,551,000
(end 2013)
Spending less on luxuries
75
Avoiding making big purchases
72
Going out/socialising less
66
Finding it much harder to make ends meet
63
Grocery shopping in cheaper shops now
54
Not booking overseas holidays
47
Not booking any holidays
46
Difficulties making loan or mortgage payments
33
Changed utility suppliers
31
Self- reduced salary at work
26
Self- reduced hours at work
26
Giving up gym or club memberships
21
Partner – reduced salary at work
19
Personally lost job
18
Cutting down on kids after-school/extra curricular/lessons
17
Queried cost of medicines with GP/pharmacist
16
Partner – reduced hours at work Asked GP/pharmacist to prescribe cheaper medicines
14 13
Stopped using car/car off the road
12
Stopped paying for private medical insurance
12
Partner has lost job
11
Even in the fifth year of recession, the impact of economic retraction is substantial. Almost 1 in 5 have lost a job, two thirds are finding it harder to make ends meet and are socialising less. One in three are experiencing mortgage difficulties and almost half are cutting out holidays.
Fundamental Recession Impact U25 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
49 43
24% 60% 57% 42% 8%
43
34 One or other in family has had salary or hours reduced or lost job (1,511,000)
2009
2010
2011
2013
The level of fundamental impact is diminishing, but there is massive age disparity: those aged 25-49 have been hugely impeded by the recession. Pfizer Index 2013
“I’ve booked my holidays alright. It’s the first thing I do in January! You have to have something to look forward to and we have the bit of money put aside for it so why not?”
29
Recoverers Steady job Retain smart shopper outlook
Hols and socialising Cautious optimism
30
“Best country in the world to do business? That’s just typical, but it’s just an elite who see any of that business. It’s not ordinary people.”
31
The Golden Circle
Business/ civil service elite
Least affected by crash
First to benefit from growth?
32
“It’s the people high up giving themselves money and then taking everything from the working people.”
33
A word in your ear ‌. Less tax Invest in jobs
Reopen Garda Stations Sort out spending on cars etc.
34
“My husband’s office closed in March so our life has gone and we are struggling and we are living on savings…we thought at this stage in our lives would be sort of enjoyable.”
35
Changed Horizons Kids stay at home longer
Postpone real retirement
See the world and stay away
Stay in college
Care of elderly parents
36
“I went to SuperValu a few weeks ago for a shop…and I felt really guilty. I felt it was a treat because I didn’t go to Aldi and do my main shop and then buy one or two things in SuperValu.”
37
Grocery Trends Discount Chic Deal Blinkers
Mainstream Guilt? Aisle End Myopia Offer route planning Supermarket meat!
Restraint & release 38
Responsibility for Groceries 2013 2002
Personally do all/ most grocery 44% shopping
Men (480)
2013
Personally
19%
43% 22%
Jointly Jointly do all/most
Neither
Women (531)
67%
9% 20%
49%
58% 37%
Neither
17%
16% Source: B&A Grocery Shopping & the Discounters 2013
Q.
Are you personally or jointly responsible for grocery shopping in your household?
Base: All Adults 16+
Normal Grocery Shopping It varies Daily
5% 6%
Spread over 2+ days a week
27%
61%
Source: B&A Grocery Shopping & the Discounters 2013
Q.
Which statement best describes your normal approach to grocery shopping nowadays?
One main trip weekly (+ top ups)
Base: All Shoppers - 662
Store Usage Main Shop
Tesco
2010
2012
27%
25%
2013
20%
19% Dunnes
29%
23% 19% 18%
SuperValu Any symbol group Superquinn
17%
4% 4%
Aldi
3% 4% 6%
Lidl
8%
9%
12%
Other
6%
4%
2%
12%
Source: B&A Grocery Shopping & the Discounters 2013
Q.
5% 4%
Which one of these shops do you use for most of your grocery shopping nowadays?
18%
Base: All Shoppers - 662
Incidence of Visiting 100%
89%
90%
87%
86%
82% 80%
77%
76%
82%
2011
2012
86%
82%
73%
73% 70%
84%
69%
67% 64%
60%
55% 50%
50%
47%
40% 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: B&A Grocery Shopping & the Discounters 2013
Q.
Have you ever visited either of these shops before?
2010
2013
Base: All heard of Aldi/Lidl - 658
“In Aldi sure the meat there is sourced from Irish farmers, you’re still getting quality like.”
43
Top 10 Items Bought % Fresh fruit & veg
63
Biscuits
54
% Fresh fruit & veg
50
Biscuits
40
Cheese
49
Household cleaners
39
Household cleaners
49
Cheese
38
Toilet tissue/rolls
40
Toilet tissue/rolls
Butter/butter spreads
39
Butter/butter spreads
28
Toiletries
39
Toiletries
28
Cereals/Porridge/ Muesli
36
Household products
34
26
Fresh meat
34
Detergents/washing powder
24
Frozen foods
34
Bacon/Rashers
23
Base: All shoppers of each store Q.
Thinking about the last time you shopped in ……… (SHOP) can you list all of the items you bought on that occasion. Anything else?
“Even when you hear something on the radio now, I think you are inclined to zone out and go straight to the internet, depending what it is, to see exactly what it is all about.�
45
Online Anytime ‘Verify’ news
Wifi threshold
Memory prosthesis
Augmented reality
Personal portal
46
“WhatsApp with friends in other countries is great; it is just like a chat with mates in a pub. It’s all the usual bullshit you talk. International bullshit!”
47
The New Pretenders A third of mobile internet usage is email or social media.
48
“With Facebook, I would just check in to make sure I am not missing something‌it used to be you would spend ages on it.
49
Questioning Facebook
‌.just as mums and dads get the hang of social networking.
50
“I mostly watch on demand or recorded live TV either streaming or Netflix.�
51
Me TV Multiscreen Homes
Screen matching
Boxset Bonding
Live is special
Back up options More choice ‌less variety?
52
Exponential Change
Too much choice?
40% have access to a tablet (up 15% in 6 months)
61% have a smartphone (86% of 16-24s)
Smartphone ownership doubled in a year and half
53
Source: eircom home sentiment survey
Technology trends 64% access the internet daily (95% amongst 1624s)
The average age for a child to influence technology decisions is 10
Facebook growing with 35+, in decline with under 24s (no longer seen as ‘cool’)
WhatsApp up 35% and Snapchat up 89% in 6 months
83% of parents agree their kids know more about technology than they do 93% view programmes on TV 22% now use portable device 93% of students/52% workers use digital devices while commuting 54
Source: eircom home sentiment survey
Online identity 59% of 16-34s sent a wrong text symbol (i.e. emoticon)
54% of 16-24 year olds posted embarrassing pictures of friends on Facebook
50% parents of 5-17s searched online to diagnose symptoms when child feels ill
43% of 16-24 year olds talked up social life online so it seemed better than it was
Source: eircom home sentiment survey55
Top TV
Big budget USA shows dominate with a few more local in the mix. Soaps key, but less talked about. X Factor showing signs of age.
56
Advertising Mindshare Big international campaigns more to the fore.
Polarised reactions to ‘silly accent’ Irish campaigns.
57
Discretionary € easing? €90
2013
83.97 77.30
€80
71.38
€70
75.07
66.70 61.29
€60
62.32
54.62 55.17
50.05
50.94
46.68
€50
47.08 43.57
47.23
51.06 43.66
€40
Pre Xmas, Property Tax, etc.?
€30 €20 €10 €0
'01 Q.
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
Apr '11
Jul '12
Feb '13
About how much would you say you spend each week on things you buy for yourself including money spent on clothes, eating out, going for a drink, going to the cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on?
Apr '13
Jul '13 Sept '13
Dec '13
Base: All adults 18+ 58
Eating and drinking All adults 18+: 951
DRINKING
Out
In
’02 ’04 ’08 ’09 ’14 %
More often
11
% 9
% 6
65
No change
% 4
62
% 4
9
12
% 14
% 9
71
18
24
-7
8
% 8
% 6
68
67
29
%
35
%
%
4
3
81
75
72
79 83
77
4
% 11
%
%
8
7
24 7
+3 +5
12
13
+2
-4 -16
9
-1
69
84
%
3
10
17
20
5
62
77
34
27
-4 -13 -17 -23
%
70 78
34
-16 -23 -31 -30
%
’02 ’04 ’08 ’09 ’14
63
6
Balance (more minus less)
%
Restaurant
’02 ’04 ’08 ’09 ’14
62
85
Less often
Fast Food
’02 ’04 ’08 ’09 ’14 %
EATING OUT
33
23 11
=
15
-7 -16-31 -28
Everything felt to be in decline, even drinking at home is losing its gloss.
59
Spending per fortnight All adults 18+: 951
All adults inc spend nothing
All Spenders €65.89
Buying clothes
€22.93
Going out for a drink to a pub, bar or lounge
€47.08
€20.53
Going out for a meal to a restaurant / pub
€46.70
€16.76
Going to the hairdresser
€28.38
€9.92
Beauty treatments (e.g. manicure, pedicure, eye brow, facial, etc.)
€27.83
€2.24
Drinking alcohol of any kind at home/ friends home (including wine)
€22.64
€9.23
Ordering food for home delivery/take-away
€22.63
€6.52
Going to the cinema
€21.98
€3.65
Visiting any fast-food restaurants like McDonalds, Burger King etc. Drinking soft drinks of any kind at home
€18.90 €9.07
€7.24 €4.34
60
When things improve % Don’t know
13
4
Have already improved/begun to improve By the end of March 2014
4
By the end of June 2014
5 6
13
2016 or beyond
Source: B&A Sunday Times Dec 2013
By the end of December 2014
In 2015
54
61
Events In Next 12 months % Taking a holiday abroad
53
Home improvements/extension
24
Buying a new/newer car
23
Home entertainment equipment
17
Having a baby/starting a family
9
Buying a family home/taking out a mortgage Buying an investment property Buying a holiday home
6
Perhaps a sign that people are anticipating ‘normal’ spending. However for many there is a sense of necessity in being ‘forced’ to make these purchases.
3 1
Base: All adults - 934 Q.
And which of the following are you planning to do over the next twelve months or so?
62
“People are buying massive televisions and going out in 10 year old cars.�
63
Little indicators we trust Good summer Short breaks perception
Pubs opening again
Investment in Ireland Rent going up
First time buyers
Newer car Just got used to it? Back to the dentist
Weddings
64
65