Consumer Confidence Tracker May 2014 PREPARED BY: Luke Reaper and Ciara McCarthy Behaviour & Attitudes J.5270
Introduction
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Introduction This report presents the findings of the latest phase of the Behaviour & Attitudes’ Consumer Confidence Tracker. Survey results for this phase are based on a sample of 1,006 adults aged 16+, quota controlled in terms of age, gender, socio-economic class and region to reflect the profile of the adult population of the Republic of Ireland. All interviewing on the survey is conducted on our fortnightly face-to-face Barometer by trained members of the B&A field force working under ESOMAR guidelines. Fieldwork on the latest wave was carried out between 10th – 20th of April 2014.
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About Behaviour & Attitudes Behaviour and Attitudes is Ireland’s largest and most experienced independently owned research company. We pride ourselves on having the most experienced director team in Ireland. All projects have a director involved. Established over 25 years ago, Behaviour and Attitudes provides a full range of market research services, ranging from CAPI, CATI, online and of course qualitative. Specialist sectors include: Retail & Shopper, Technology & Telecoms, Media, Financial, Political & Social, Polling, Automotive, Healthcare and Public Sector & Utilities.
For more information please visit our website at: www.banda.ie or contact us on +353 1 2057500.
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Summary Looking forward, consumers are the most confident they’ve ever been since the start of this study. Almost 1 in 3 adults now believe that improvements to the economy will be made in one years time. We have finally entered positive territory.
While consumers agree that things have improved, they remain sceptical about how they spend/save their own personal finances. Disposable income is still low, this the macro optimism has yet to filter down to the consumer level. Those outside Dublin display most scepticism (albeit improvements are being registered) – those outside Dublin lag Dubliner optimism. Encouragingly, unemployment levels are the lowest they’ve been since the start of the global recession, and employment is expected to increase by 2% this year alone.
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The Macro Context
7
7
At a Macro Level, Improvements to Irelands Domestic Economy are evident… 4.0
GDP
3.5
GNP
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.2 1.8
2.0 1.5
1.0
0.9
0.9
1.7
-0.5
-1.5 -2.0
-0.9 -1.0 -1.3 -1.5
-1.1
-1.3 -1.5-1.5
-1.2
-2.7-2.8
-4.0
2008
0.2
0 -0.1
-0.3 -1.1 -1.7 -2.3
-2.4 -2.8
-3.5 -3.6
0.4 0.2
-1.3
-1.9
-2.5 -3.0
-0.0 -0.4
-0.4
-0.6
0.7 0.6
0.1
0.0
-1.0
1.0 0.6
0.3
0.5
1.6 1.5
1.5
0.8
0.7
2.2
2.0
-2.3
-3.3
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(FORECASTED TOTAL)
Ireland’s GDP experienced positive growth during Q2 and Q3 2013, GNP also improved in Q3 2013. In 2014, GDP is forecasted to increase by a further 2.2%. Source: CSO Estimates as of 14th May 2014/EY Economic Eye Summer Report (2013)/ESRI Quarterly Commentary (2013)
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Exports – Improvements are evident, driven by Higher Food and Chemical Exports % Annual Growth
6.2 5.0
4.5
4.2
2.9 2.2
-1.1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 (f)
2015 (f)
-3.8
Irelands exports rose by 4% to
€7.031 billion in January 2014 vs. January 2013.
Main Contributors (Jan-March 2014 vs. 2013)
Food
+9.8%
€2,136 million
Chemicals
+22.2%
€203 million
Source: EY Economic Eye Summer Report (2013)/Bord Bia Export Performance & Prospects Report (2014)/CSO Goods Exports and Imports (March 2014).
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The number of people on the Live Register is the
lowest level recorded since April 2009.
Source: CSO latest Estimates (April 2014)
The Live Register and Unemployment Figures The Live Register
-7.8% Overall Change vs. April 2013. 149,018
239,541
Unemployment in Ireland
% Rate of Unemployment 20 15
12
13.8
14.6
2010
2011
14.7
13.6
11.7
10 5 0 2009
2012
2013 Apr '14
11.7% -2.3% -9.6% vs. April 2013
vs. April 2013
Current Rate of unemployment.
-22.5% vs. peak in 2012 of 15.1%
Source: CSO Estimates as of 15th May 2014
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The Live Register – Improvements Evident Seasonally Adjusted
Total Persons on live Register
500000 449,600 448,600 439,200 439,200 438,800 438,300 436,000 436,000 435,200 432,300 428,800 426,000 414,300 406,200 398,300 392,700
450000
433,000 434,700 426,000 425,400
400000
371,000 351,000
350000 300000
278,300 245,800
250000 200000 150000
198,400 186,300 171,300 166,000 136,962
100000
50000
Month
0
Nov Sept Nov Feb '00 '07 '07 '08
Apr Sept Nov Feb '08 '08 '08 '09
Apr '09
Sep Nov Feb '09 '09 '10
Apr '10
Sep Nov Feb '10 '10 '11
Apr '11
Sep Nov Feb '11 '11 '12
Apr '12
Sep Nov Feb '12 '12 '13
Apr '13
Sep Nov Feb '13 '13 '14
Apr '14
*Source: CSO latest estimates May 2014 * The Live Register is not designed to measure unemployment. It includes part-time work e.g. seasonal & casual workers who work up to 3 days per week
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A Somewhat Brighter Picture‌ Inflation edged up 0.3% in April 2014. Employment is expected to increase by 2% in 2014. GDP expected to grow by 2.2% and 2.6% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Disposable income is slowly increasing (+2% this Qtr. vs. last). Unemployment rate set to decrease to 10.9% this year, and 10.4% in 2015.
Almost 1 in 3 adults agree that the country is better of now than it was a year ago.
Source: Central Bank Quarterly Bulletin (April 2014)/ ESRI Quarterly Report (April 2014)/2013/EY Economic Eye Summer Report (2013)/B&A Consumer Confidence Index (April 2014).
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Consumer Confidence Findings
14 14
The Future Looks Bright: Ireland Returns to Positive Territory for the First Time Since 2009 Dublin +16 Outside +3
Balance +/-
6
10
-4
0 -10
-25
-20 -30
-58
-50 -60 -70
-54
-65
-58 -50
-74 -76
-74
-100
-70
-88
-93 -91
-86
-81
-39 -50
-56 -57 -69
-36
-64
-27
-44
-60
-64
-7
-51 -53
-31
-46
-62
Looking Back Looking Forward
-82
Mar May Sept Nov Mar July Nov
2010
2009
-52
-72 -59
-86
-80 -90
-44
-45
-40
0
-18
-20
Jan Apr July Nov Mar May Sept Nov Feb Apr July Sept Dec Feb Apr
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: B&A Consumer Confidence Report
Q.1
Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year?
Q.2
And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?
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The Economy: Looking Forward
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The Economy: Looking Forward – We have finally entered positive territory, at least at a Macro Level Base: All Adults 18+
April 2014
Better of
For the first time ever, consumers feel that the economy will be better of next year vs. this year. This opinion applies to those living in both Dublin and outside Dublin (albeit outside lags Dublin).
32% Dublin: +16
Gap
The same
42%
Worse of
26%
Outside Dublin: +3
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Feb ‘14
Apr ’14
=
-15
-59
-68
-49
-58
-52
-32
-5
+6
Q.2
And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?
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The Economy: Looking Forward – We have finally entered positive territory, at least at a Macro Level Base: All Adults 18+
Consumers are more positive about the future of the Irish Economy now than they have been in the history of this study.
6 0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Feb-5'14
Apr '14
-15 -32 -49
-52 -58
-59 -68
Q.2
And what about the coming year, do you think that the country will be better off, worse off or about the same as this year?
21
Economy – Looking Forward Trended x Region Base: All adults 18+ Balance +/-
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70
2013
2012
2014
16 3
7 -4
-9 -20
-23 -38 -32
-44 -42 -60
-30 -39
-36
The gap between Dublin and outside still exists, however both registered a dramatic increase in confidence this wave. Outside Dublin has finally left negative territory. Dublin Outside Dublin
-48
-61
-52 Sep 12
Nov 12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Q.1 Thinking about the economy as a whole, do you think that the country is better off, worse off, or about the same as last year?
24
Balance Of Opinion - Economy Long Term
Short Term
Balance +/-
10
3
0
-13
-10 -30
-40
-70
-59
-4
-6 -18
-15
-32 -44
-49
-50
-60
6
Looking Forward
-36
-40 -50
-2 0 -17
-20
Looking Back
8
-58
-59 -68
-52
-42
-59
-64 -71 -71
-80
-52
-39 -50 -60
-64
-56 -57 -62
-51
-36 -44
-27
-25 -7
0
-31
-46
-55
-90 -100
-89 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YEARLY AVERAGES
Mar
May
Sept
2012
Nov
Feb
Apr
July
Sept
Dec
Feb
2013
Apr
2014
When viewed longitudinally a pattern of consistent improvement has been noted over the past three years.
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Personal Finances
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Personal Finances – Looking Forward: Caution is still Evident (Albeit Improving Gradually) Base: All Adults 18+
April 2014 Higher
13%
The same
Looking forward one year, Dubliners are slightly more optimistic about their income levels than those living outside Dublin.
Dublin: -15
54%
Outside Dublin: -23
Lower
Gap
33%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Feb ‘14
Apr ’14
+18
+15
-21
-59
-50
-56
-51
-44
-37
-20
Q.5
Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes to be higher, lower, or the same as in the last 12 months?
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Price Increases Across Some Sectors Perhaps Contributing to Increased Caution Increased due to higher prices for alcohol sold in off licences and supermarkets and higher tobacco prices.
Grew primarily due to higher health and motor insurance premiums and the increased costs associated with the local property tax
+4.5% +3.7%
+3.2%
Increased largely due to higher prices for alcoholic drinks and food consumed in licensed premises, restaurants, cafes, and canteens.
+2.0% Education
Alcohol and Tobacco
Misc. goods and Restaurants and services hotels
Clothing and footwear
Food and nonalcoholic beverages
-2.1%
April 2014 vs. April 2013
-3.7%
Fell due to clothing and footwear sales.
Decreased due to lower prices across a range of products such as vegetables, bread and cereals, and meat.
Source: Consumer Price Index (April 2014)
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Personal Finances – Looking Forward Expect it to be ‌ LONG TERM
2012
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
5% 13%
Higher
22% 22% 25% 25%
7%
35%
Sept
Nov
Feb April July
8%
7%
7%
7%
7%
35% 37% 34% 34%
38%
6%
6%
Sept
Dec
Feb
Apr
10% 9%
9%
46% 47%
46%
13%
31% 34% 41%
34%
41%
54%
54% 54% 58%
58% 59% 64%
Gap
8%
May
52%
58%
Lower
7%
Mar
30% 28% 30%
The same
7%
2014
2013
57%
63% 59%
51%
58% 56% 59% 59%
55%
60%
53% 44% 44%
34% 24% 27%
-2
-8
45% 33%
17% 13% 12% 13%
+8 +16 +18 +15 -21 -59 -50 -56 -51 -44
-50 -49 -52 -52
-48 -54 -47 -34 -35
-37 -20
The gap is decreasing each year and has returned to match that of 2008 (hence, improvements are being made). Q.5
Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?
33
Personal Finances - Looking Forward x Region Base: All adults 18+ Balance +/-
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70
2012
2014
2013
-15 -23
-27 -33 -43 -55
-48
-55
-54
Sep 12
-44
-45
Nov 12
-54
-56
Feb-13
Q.5
Apr-13
-39
-35 -39
Those living outside Dublin feel marginally more positive about their personal finances for the year ahead.
Dublin Outside Dublin
-40
-53
Jul-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Do you expect your income in the next year, after inflation and taxes, to be higher, lower or the same as in the last twelve months?
35
Balance Of Opinion - Personal Finances Long Term
Balance +/-
16 18 15
15 5
-2
-8
-15
-35 -45 -55 -65 -75
Looking Back
8
-5
-25
Short Term
Looking Forward
1 -11
4
4 -21
-21 -34 -35
-23 -34
-35
-50 -59
-63
-58
-44 -56
-51
-47
-57 -61
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YEARLY AVERAGES
-47
-48 -50 -49 -52 -52 -54 -61 Mar
-56 May
-52
-52 -59
Sept
2012
Nov
Feb
-55 Apr
-38
-21 -36 -37
-44
-47
July
Sept
2013
Dec
Feb
Apr
2014
Gains being made over time. However we are still in negative territory.
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Savings
37
Saving Levels– Looking Forward Base: All Adults 18+
April 2014 Higher
10%
The same
Dubliners are slightly more likely to save in the year ahead vs. those living outside Dublin. Both, however, remain in negative territory.
Dublin: -10
57%
Outside Dublin: -27
Lower
Gap
33%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Feb ‘14
Apr ’14
-1
-5
-34
-56
-48
-50
-48
-40
-33
-23
Q.8
Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months?
38
Savings – Looking Forward x Region Balance +/-
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70
2012
2014
2013
-10
-24
-46 -50
-25
Sep 12
-27 -33 -40
-37
Gap between Dublin and outside Dublin continues.
-48 -53
-54
Nov 12
-35
-43 -47
Outside Dublin
-20
-29 -34
Dublin
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Q.8 Do you expect to save more, less or the same amount in the year ahead compared with the last twelve months?
41
Personal Assets
42
Personal Assets: Looking Forward Base: All Adults 18+
April 2014 15% Those living in Dublin feel slightly more optimistic about their personal assets looking ahead vs. those outside Dublin.
Higher Dublin: +6
The same
Lower
Gap
69%
Outside Dublin: -3
16%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Feb ‘14
Apr ’14
+33
+20
-25
-53
-43
-41
-31
-18
-8
-1
Q.6
Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) in the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?
43
Personal Assets– Looking Forward x Region Expect them to be ‌ Balance +/-
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70
2012
2014
2013
+2 -12 -18 -25
-29
-13
-11
-23
-22 -34
-4
-9 -11
-21
+6
0
Dublin has returned to positive territory this wave, whilst outside Dublin remains in negative territory (albeit improving).
-32
-33
Dublin Outside Dublin
Sep 12
Nov 12
Q.6
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Do you expect your assets (your house, shares, pension entitlements, savings) In the next year to be higher, lower or the same as in the past year?
46
Purchasing Goods and Services
47
Purchasing Goods and Services – Looking Forward: Improvements are Evident Base: All Adults 18+
April 2014 10%
More
Gap
The same
64%
Less
26%
Dubliners feel slightly more confident about spending in the coming year vs. those living outside Dublin (albeit they remain in negative territory).
Dublin: -9 Outside Dublin: -19
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Feb ‘14
Apr ’14
+7
+5
-29
-63
-47
-52
-45
-37
-30
-16
Q.7
In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year?
48
Purchasing Goods And Services – Looking Forward x Region Expect to purchase ‌ Balance +/-
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -50 -55 -60 -65 -70
2012
2013
2014
-9 -21 -31 -41 -46
-45 -50
Sep 12
Nov 12
Dublin
-19
-24
Outside Dublin
-28 -34 -32
-42
-31
-33
-42 -48
Feb-13
-47
Apr-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Q.7 In the year ahead, do you expect to purchase more, less or the same amount of goods and services as in the past year?
51
Balance Of Opinion in Summary – The Year Ahead Expectations in regard to assets value, purchases, and savings Long Term
Short Term
Balance +/40
31
30
21
20 10 0 -10
6
9
-10 -12 -12
-20 -30 -40 -50 -60
-23
Purchase
20 4
-8
Assets Value
33
-5
7
Savings
5 -1
-1
-10 -9 -5 -25 -29
-28 -34
-43 -47 -53
-41
-18 -31 -37 -45
-52
-29
-31 -33
-16
-29 -29 -30
-23 -39 -40 -40 -43 -43 -44 -31 -46 -48 -34 -33
-40
-63 -48 -50 -48 -56
-20
-21 -28
-8
-42
-44
-45
-51
-52
-48
-44
-70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
YEARLY AVERAGES
Mar May Sept Nov
2012
Feb
Apr July Sept Dec
2013
Feb
Apr
2014
Improvements are noted and momentum is slowly improving. However, any further imposition that directly affects real incomes of consumers will impact this area negatively. Growth in personal financial situations continues to be finely balanced.
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Disposable Income
Discretionary Income Has Halved in 5 Years but decline appears to have abated Base: All adults 18+
Dublin Outside Dublin ABC1 C2DE
€83.97
€50.23 €41.33 €51.78 €38.47
€62.32
€61.29 €50.94
€46.86
2001 2004 2008 2010 2012 LONG TERM
Q.
€43.57
Feb '13
€47.08
€47.23
€51.06
Apr Jul '13 Sept '13 '13
€43.66
€42.97
€43.85
Dec '13
Feb '14
Apr '14
SHORT TERM
About how much would you say you spend each week on things you buy for yourself including money spent on clothes, eating out, going for a drink, going to the cinema, gambling, sporting activities and so on?
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