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USC report: Southern California rents to rise over next 2 years
By Joe Taglieri joet@beaconmedianews.com
Apersistentlackof units to satisfy the growing demand for housing in Southern California will continue to drive rent increases throughout the region during the next two years, according to a USC study released Wednesday.
The 2025 Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast by researchers from the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate reported that vacancy rates remain low at around 5% in Los Angeles County and 4% in Orange County.
The Inland Empire remains Southern California’s most affordable rental market with vacancy at 6.4%.
The annual analysis also flagged broader economic risks such as a possible stockmarket correction fueled by AI investments, elevated interest rates and rising federal debt that could further curtail already sluggish housing production in the
region. Researchers said the forecast pairs its two-year housing projections “with the reality check that rebuilding into affordability will likely take sustained effort lasting a decade or more.”
According to the forecast, rent rose just 0.5% in LA County through October 2025, averaging $2,336. The vacancy rate was 5.37%.
Rents are expected to increase 0.64% over the each of the next two years to average $2,350 by October 2027.
Average rent this year as of October in Orange County was $2,776 with a 3.84% vacancy rate. Forecasters set annual rent growth of 2.52% in the county, with the average rent reaching $2,859 by October 2027, an annual increase of 2.5% over each of the next two years. The vacancy rate was expected to reach 4.21%.
“Housing affordability keeps shrinking for the people who need it most.
The most data-backed solution is obvious: we need more housing,” forecast author Moussa Diop, associate professor of Real Estate at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, said in a statement. “Beginning with the 2008 downturn, the US lost the production capacity needed to meet long-term demand. We can build back, but it’s going to take an allhands approach.”
While new housing construction in California remains weak, states including Texas and Florida have attracted former California residents and are building at much higher rates, according to the report. Adjusted for population, Texas permitted more than twice as many units as California despite facing similar high interest rates and volatile tariffs.
“Rent control or subsidies may offer short-term relief, but without new supply, these policies only
entrench the problems they seek to solve,” Diop said. “San Diego shows what’s possible: in just five years, it built enough supply to make average rents cheaper than in Orange County after years of similar prices. We’ll soon see whether CEQA reform improves the reliability of infill development.”
According to the report, San Diego County’s average rent was $2,535 with a vacancy rate of 5.54% in October. The forecast said rent will rise slightly, reaching an average of $2,563 by October 2027 along with a reduced vacancy rate of 5.18%.
Looking ahead, the forecast expects much of the same in 2026 and 2027: slowly rising rents and not nearly enough new housing, with a handful of local exceptions. Regional conditions vary significantly in
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LA County records 2nd-highest total of hate crimes in 44 years
Whilehatecrimes decreased by 1%, from 1,367 in 2023 to 1,355 in 2024, throughout Los Angeles County, public safety officials Thursday said that number marked the second-highest total number of such crimes and vowed to make the region a more welcoming place.
The Los Angeles County Commission on Human Relations released its annual analysis of hate crimes for 2024, which revealed record highs in reported hate crimes across multiple groups such as African Americans, LGBTQ+ individuals, Jewish people, Latino/as, Middle Easterners, women, Israelis, Muslims and Scientologists. The report highlighted a significant increase in crimes occurring in schools, and cases connected to conflicts in the Middle East.
Since 1980, the commission has compiled, analyzed and produced the annual report of hate crime data submitted by more than 100 law enforcement agencies, educational institutions and community-based organizations.
“Each of these numbers represents a person whose dignity was violated and whose community feels that harm,” county Supervisor Lindsey Horvath said in a statement. “This year’s report makes clear that hate isn’t slowing — it’s evolving and appearing in the daily lives of far too many Angelenos.”
The supervisor noted the county is strengthening its partnerships with schools, community organizations and survivors to confront hate “early, directly and with compassion.”
“No matter who you are or how you show up in the
world, you deserve to be safe and supported in Los Angeles County. We will not rest until that is true for everyone,” Horvath added.
Highlights of the report found the following:
-- Reported hate crimes in Los Angeles County decreased by a percentage point, from 1,367 in 2023 to 1,355 in 2024, the secondhighest total in the history of this report;
-- African Americans were again grossly overrepresented in the overall total of those targeted and made up 51% of racial hate crime victims. The 345 anti-Black crimes were the highest number ever reported;
-- There were 102 antitransgender crimes, the largest number ever documented in this report. A staggering 95% of these crimes were violent;
-- Anti-Latino/a crimes slightly decreased from 145 to 143, the second- highest number recorded in the history of this report;
-- Anti-Middle Eastern crimes sharply increased by 118% from 22 to 48, the largest count in the current database;
-- Anti-female crimes grew 75% from 20 to 35 and set a record for the highest number ever recorded;
-- Anti-Israeli crimes increased 27% from 22 to 28, the highest count in our current database;
-- Hate crimes targeting non-binary people sharply increased 275% from 4 to 15, higher than 2023, when we began tracking this targeted group;
-- Race, ethnicity and national origin was by far the most common motivation, constituting 48% of all hate crimes. The 678 victims in 2024 was the
| Photo courtesy of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate