Globalization Scenarios | CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Scenarios are not forecasts. They serve as thought
This
experiments meant to facilitate quantitatively
according to several questions of key importance:
section
summarizes
the
conclusions
sound discussions of long-term options, and can also be used as strategy development tools. As the scenarios discussed in this project show: The geopolitical and geoeconomic changes that could well shape globalization in coming years are of enormous relevance for German companies.
HOW WELL HAVE GERMAN COMPANIES’ BUSINESS MODELS PREPARED THEM FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES? All companies are aware that geopolitical shifts will change the foundation on which they do
The way in which different scenarios impact
business. The way in which companies prepare for
individual companies can vary widely. The
this differs, however: Some systematically analyze
strategies are as diverse as the German economy
geopolitical and global economic developments,
itself.
sometimes in the form of detailed future scenarios. At a number of major German companies, such
This publication can only provide a very rough
analyses are carried out in a structured fashion
outline of the discussions of both the impacts
by specialized organizational units. Yet even
the different scenarios are likely to have and
small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)
the strategic responses companies are using
reflect on their future at length in light of global
to prepare for them. One reason for this is the
changes. Some SMEs reported that, in the past,
agreement made with all partners to keep what
observing global conditions and assessing their
was discussed confidential.
future development has been a valuable tool for aligning strategic decision-making with political
Nevertheless, even the approximate patterns that
change. Some family-run companies in particular
emerge can be helpful for companies wanting
have generations of experience dealing with global
to think through the challenges individually. In
political developments, such as during the Cold
certain places, the patterns can be worked out in
War.
greater detail; in others, they are not a good fit and must be adapted.
Depending on the approach, the future scenarios used by the interviewed companies differ from
In the previous sections, potential reactions
the potential events depicted in the present
to the different scenarios were developed. The
publication. For the most part, however, the global
result is a series of snapshots of the German
trends they take into account are similar.
economy at the end of the current decade, when one of the scenarios has become reality. The
The crucial question, however, is whether it is
unpredictability of the factors involved makes it
possible for the companies – given their specific
difficult to depict the developments precisely or
business models, their financial resources and
in a nuanced manner, which is why the snapshots
their networks – to set the course in such a way
have necessarily been taken from a high altitude
that they can actually overcome new challenges.
and have a relatively low resolution.
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