Globalization Scenarios | WORLD IN PERMANENT CRISIS
Scenario
WORLD IN PERMANENT CRISIS The US and China are locked in an ongoing conflict. Europe is crushed between the two.
STRONG EUROPE REFORMED MULTILATERALISM
WORLD WITH MULTIPLE BLOCS A sovereign EUROPE asserts itself as its own power center next to the US and CHINA (and other regional blocs?)
COLD PEACE
Globalization is not what it used to be; the world is becoming more regional. Yet the US, CHINA and EUROPE compete to reform global governance.
The West joins forces. The US, EUROPE and like-minded partners form a counterweight to CHINA’s sphere of influence.
US – CHINA DECOUPLING/ CONFLICT WORLD IN PERMANENT CRISIS
US-CHINA INTEGRATION/ COOPERATION
G2 The world is dominated by the US and CHINA. EUROPE is no longer a global actor.
The US and CHINA are in permanent conflict. EUROPE is crushed between the two superpowers.
WEAK EUROPE
DESCRIPTION
POLITICAL SYSTEMS Democracies and autocracies are equally under pressure
In light of Europe’s weakened state, the US and China are the world’s sole superpowers and thus shape global developments. Each bloc views the other as an adversary. American democracy is in crisis, as is China’s one-party dictatorship. Driven by escalating concerns about domestic stability, the rivals develop an increasingly strident “My country first” mentality – and the effects are felt around the globe. Democracies come under pressure from internal conflicts, unstable governments, populism, nationalism and other extremist movements.
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