Globalization Scenarios | COLD PEACE
Scenario
COLD PEACE The West joins forces. The US, Europe and like-minded partners serve as a counterweight to China’s sphere of influence.
STRONG EUROPE REFORMED MULTILATERALISM
WORLD WITH MULTIPLE BLOCS A sovereign EUROPE asserts itself as its own power center next to the US and CHINA (and other regional blocs?)
COLD PEACE
Globalization is not what it used to be; the world is becoming more regional. Yet the US, CHINA and EUROPE compete to reform global governance.
The West joins forces. The US, EUROPE and like-minded partners form a counterweight to CHINA’s sphere of influence.
US – CHINA DECOUPLING/ CONFLICT WORLD IN PERMANENT CRISIS
US-CHINA INTEGRATION/ COOPERATION
G2 The world is dominated by the US and CHINA. EUROPE is no longer a global actor.
The US and CHINA are in permanent conflict. EUROPE is crushed between the two superpowers.
WEAK EUROPE
DESCRIPTION
POLITICAL SYSTEMS Western democracies face off against Chinese authoritarianism
National politics and bilateral relations play a crucial role. The Western democracies (the US, EU and their partners) are confronted with an authoritarian power bloc led by China’s one-party state. The spheres of influence of both major blocs are clearly delineated. Despite its close ties to Western partners, the EU attempts to maintain its relations with China and other regions (e.g. Russia), which becomes a bone of contention for some in the Western alliance.
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