November 2019 INDUSTRIAL POLICY DOSSIER
Industry Report Industrial production and trade in the individual industries
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We expect manufacturing output in Germany to drop by four percent this year. Following six years of growth, German industry has been in recession since the third quarter 2018.
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After two years of more than three percent growth each year, global industrial production is faltering and will only rise by one percent in 2019. We are even expecting industrial production to stagnate in the advanced economies. Growth in industrial production in emerging countries will only rise by two percent. This is the slowest pace of growth seen in the last ten years.
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In the current year, we expect German exports to increase by a mere one-half percent. In the previous year, exports grew by 2.1 percent. Exports have not registered such weak growth as this year since 2009.
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We expect global goods exports to decrease by one-half percent. Goods exports from advanced economies should rise slightly in 2019, while those from emerging countries are set to drop by one percent.