October 2018 EUROPEAN GROWTH OUTLOOK
Euphoria turns to disillusionment Europe’s economy passed its cyclical peak
The BDI is expecting the EU economy to grow by slightly over two percent this year. Following growth of 2.4 percent last year, the economy has passed its peak. Private consumption and investment remain the primary drivers of growth.
The trade disputes are now reflected in the hard figures. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth has been decreasing for several quarters. In the second quarter it turned negative, reaching minus 0.3 percent, half a percentage point lower than in the preceding quarters.
Brexit is looming large. The United Kingdom grew by only 1.1 percent in the first six months of the year compared to the same period last year, performing second to last among the EU28. The European Commission is expecting the weakest growth in the United Kingdom and Italy next year, forecasting 1.2 percent in both cases.
Europe is entering a slowdown in its economic cycle. Growing nationalism and protectionism are also curbing growth by hampering foreign trade. Domestic demand remains strong but may well come under pressure from second-round effects. Export-oriented countries with a strong industrial sector, like Germany, will be affected most.
The unemployment rate of 6.8 percent in the EU has dropped below pre-crisis levels for the first time. Unemployment in the euro area is slightly higher at 8.1 percent. The shortage of skilled workers is coming to a head. Inflation is close to the target rate of below, but close to, two percent. Monetary policy is slowly returning to normal.
The European Parliament elections will be a watershed moment: a choice between a sovereign Europe and weak nation states.