ACBR Issue 08 June 2018

WWW.ACBR.COM.AU • JUNE 2018 • ISSUE 08

2018年六月 · 第8期

Perfect partners Nutrition Care, Brownes Dairy find export match Page 14 天作之合

纽新宝Brownes乳业发现出口新捷径 第14页

Tourist challenge Access looms as WA’s biggest hurdle Page 18 旅游壁垒

西澳最大困扰-如何与中国接轨 第18页

Fintech disruption

Alibaba arrives in Australian finance Page 26 金融科技破冰者

阿里巴巴抢滩澳洲金融业 第26页

Chris Palandri Regional managing director - WA Multiplex Photo: Philip Gostelow 克里斯·帕兰德里 大区总经理-西澳大利亚州 Multiplex 照片：Philip Gostelow

Building boost

Chinese developers crucial in construction

建筑热潮

中国开发商在建设中举足轻重

' CHARTER I I Property Group 'I I

Charter Property Group is a leading West Australian "Boutique property consulting firm. The firm offers thirty years'worth of professional experience in property services: Corporate Real Estate, Project Management and Residential/Commercial Sales.

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Proposed 17/18 floor mixed use property with' apartments, offices and a street front bar/cafe.

Sensational views.

$1,995,000 Negotiable, Sold as a Going Concern

Enquiries for 1, 2 or 3 bedroom apartments

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Sale by Auction

1171-1175 Hay Street, West Perth WA 6005

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Rare duplex block in river location. Walk to Noosa Rivers cafes, bars, boutiques and the vibrant heart of Noosaville.

查尔特房地产中介公司是西澳地区领先品牌中介服务企业； 经过三十年的市场锤炼及经验累积，拥有一支专业干练的人才 团队，服务真诚专业，为新老客户提供高质量快捷的地产相关 服务。

Chimes Resort & Spa 467 Mount Shadford Road, Denmark WA 6333 Ten spacious resort rooms & day spa. Substantial improvements have recently been completed.

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17 Edward Street, Noosaville QLD 4566

ENQUIRIES: Christopher Borella Director M: +61 418 921 049 P: +61 8 9321 2181 E: chris@charterproperty.com.au

9/39 & 50B Hamersley Street, Broome WA 6725 Broome has just recently been connected with international flights to Changi Airport, Singapore.

Purchase a waterfront property on Roebuck Bay from $850,000 & $885,000

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目录

| CONTENTS

contents 目录

Property | 地产 6

Melbourne still big lure for buyers in 2018

令人怦然心动的墨尔本

Resources | 能源

22 Old, new drivers underpin nickel’s star performance

8 From the editor’s desk | 主编的话 4

Higher property tax undermines state’s competitiveness

高额海外买家财产税将削弱西澳州的竞争力

中国期货市场变革——铁矿石将紧随原油步伐

Technology | 科技

26 Alibaba moves to transform Australian fintech

阿里巴巴有意改变澳大利亚金融科技

32 Tech growth helps push WA to global stage

科技行业助力西澳登上全球舞台

Tourism | 旅游

有朋自远方来，不亦乐乎

Early China engagement a boost for Multiplex

Multiplex公司的中国策略

Opinion | 教育

34 Are shipping emissions adding to weather events in China?

14 Two paths to perfect China export partners 谋求出口中国合伙人的两条捷径

40 Industrial profits jump to six-month high

中国4月工业企业利润攀升至六个月以来最高点

WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

海运排放是否是中国雾霾的罪魁祸首？

36 How to protect your brand from counterfeiters

Economics | 经济

News | 新闻

30 Iron ore tipped to follow crude oil on China futures markets move

18 WA ripe for more tourists, if they can get here

Cover story | 封面故事 8

新旧因素助力期镍再掀狂潮

如何摆脱仿冒困扰 保护品牌商标

38 What’s at stake in the tariff negotiations between the US and China

中美关税谈判有何利害关系

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

3

Publisher DDK IN THE ZONE PTY LTD trading as Australia China Business Review Editor in chief Dan Wilkie

主编: 丹•威尔基

E: dan.wilkie@acbr.com.au

from the

Managing director Ken Meng

董事总经理: 孟敬亭

E: ken.meng@acbr.com.au Graphic design GRAFFIK www.graffik.com.au Printing Daniels Printing Craftsmen www.danielspc.com.au AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW 澳中商讯

PH: (08) 6216 9899 www.acbr.com.au Postal Address Unit 2c, 330 Churchill Avenue Subiaco, Western Australia 6008

Disclaimer While all care has been taken to ensure the information included in this publication is accurate and has come from sources deemed to be reliable, Australia China Business Review takes no responsibility, unless expressly indicated, for any inaccuracies. Inclusion of opinions, statements and comments does not constitute endorsement by Australia China Business Review.

Content within this publication is protected by Australian copyright law and may not be reproduced without express written permission by Australia China Business Review. 免责声明: Australia China Business Review已经采取所有措施来确保本刊 物所包含的信息是准确的，而且是来自 确认可靠的消息来源，除非明确指出，对 于任何不准确的信息Australia China Business Review 不负任何责任。刊物 中意见、声明和评论不代表 Australia China Business Review 立场。 本刊 物的内容受澳大利亚版权法保护，未经 Australia China Business Review 的书面许可，不得转载 4

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

DAN WILKIE | 丹·威尔基

高额海外买家

Higher proper FRESH data on offshore property purchases shows the Western Australian government is playing a risky game with its decision to increase taxes for foreign property purchasers.

Data from the Foreign Investment Review Board showed Chinese investors spent $15.3 billion on Australian properties in 2016-17 – more than 50 per cent down on the $31.9 billion spent in 2015-16.

Just 5 per cent of those transactions occurred in WA, the latest indication Perth is either unknown, or unwanted by Chinese investors.

The FIRB blamed its introduction of application fees for the plunge in foreign property purchases but said increased taxes in some states also had a considerable impact.

In that context, the WA government’s decision in May to increase its impost on foreign property purchases appears to be a head scratcher.

Chinese investors have already voted with their feet – Melbourne and Sydney are their clear preferences for property investment.

However, both of those residential markets are showing strong indications of having reached the peak of the price cycle, precisely the worst time for an investor to buy in.

Theoretically, that would open the door to other states to demonstrate a value proposition, but WA may have shot itself in the foot through its decision to increase its impost on foreign buyers to 7 per cent.

Perth is already the sixth-ranked preference for Chinese investors, not only behind Australia’s big iconic cities, but also Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra, according to data from Juwai.com.

主编的话

| FROM THE EDITOR’S DESK

editor’s desk 主编的话

财产税将削弱西澳州的竞争力

ty tax undermines state’s competitiveness For a state already lagging, it beggars belief the state government would bring in a policy that would reduce competitiveness, particularly at a turning point in respective property cycles.

It is understandable the state government would seek any means necessary to boost its bottom line, with Premier Mark McGowan recently saying the state of ruin in WA’s financial accounts was “extraordinary”.

But the question must be asked whether increasing the foreign buyers’ impost is really the answer.

If anything, the state government should be looking for ways to make investing in Perth more attractive for offshore investors, not adding additional hurdles.

State government forecasts show the impost increase would bring in $123 million from 2018-19 to 2021-22, but at the same time, WA’s state debt is expected to reach $39.1 billion in 2018-19.

Those figures show the impost is not going to be a debt buster by any measure, rather it seems a move of desperation by a government that’s been dealt a dud hand.

有关海外买家房产购置的最新数据显示，西 澳大利亚政府正在玩一盘非常危险的游戏， 其决定增加海外买家房产税。 海外投资审查委员会（FIRB）的数据显示， 中国投资者在2016-17年度澳大利亚房产上 的支出仅为153亿澳元，同期比2015-16年 的319亿澳元下降了50%以上。

这些交易中只有5%发生在西澳，这表明中国 投资者既不清楚珀斯，甚至也不愿了解珀斯。 海外投资审查委员会的项目审查收入直线 减少，它将其将其归咎于海外买家人数的大 幅下降。，同时部分州增加的各项税收也带 来了巨大的影响。 在这种形势下，西澳政府5月份突然决定增 加的海外买家房产税，似乎也属于这种令人 困扰的问题。 中国投资者早已举手表明了他们的立 场——墨尔本和悉尼才是他们对房地产投 资的首选。

然而，这两个住宅市场强势的迹象表明，它 们的房价高居不下，正是投资者入市的最差 时机。 理论上讲，这正有助于其它州展现各自价值 的绝佳机会，但西澳政府拟提升海外买家房 产税至7%，从而也使自己陷入了入地无门 的困境。

根据居外网（Juwai.com）的数据，珀斯已 排在中国投资者青睐城市第六位，不仅落后 于澳大利亚的大型标志性城市（悉尼和墨尔 本），甚至还被布里斯班、阿德莱德和堪培拉 超过。 对于这个已然掉队的州来说，州政府竟然出 台了这样一份令人大跌眼镜削弱竞争力的 政策，尤其是处于房地产周期转折的紧急 关头。 可以理解的是，西澳政府会千方百计地寻求 触底反弹的机会。州长马克·麦高文近期表 示，西澳州的经济情况“离奇曲折”。 但不得不问，提升海外买家房产税真的是最 佳良策吗？ 如果说有什么区别的话，州政府应不断寻求 解决方法，使投资珀斯对海外投资者更具吸 引力，而不是无的放矢。 州政府预算显示，预计从2018-19年度到 2021-22年度，提高海外买家房产税将带来 1.23亿澳元收入，但与此同时，2018-19年 度，西澳州的债务将达到391亿澳元。

这些数据表明，无论以何种标准来衡量，海 外买家房产税都不会对债务状况有任何改 善，更准确地说，政府放弃了这根救命稻草， 把一手好牌彻底打烂。

The state government should be looking for ways to make investing in Perth more attractive for offshore investors, not adding additional hurdles

州政府应不断寻求解决方法，使投资珀斯对海外投资者 更具吸引力，而不是无的放矢。 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

5

PROPERTY | 地产

Chinese buyers accounted for 38.7 per cent of all residential site sales in Victoria, and 35.6 per cent of development plot sales in NSW

中国买家占维多利亚州所有住宅地产销售的38.7%，同 时也占新南威尔士州住宅地产销售额的35.6%。

令人怦然心动的墨尔本

Melbourne still big lure for buyers in 2018 Dan Wilkie CHINESE investors in Australian property are being increasingly lured to Melbourne, drawn by the city’s multi-cultural offerings and top universities.

Data from China-based international real estate portal Juwai.com showed Melbourne was the most viewed location in Australia by Chinese buyers in 2017, followed by Sydney, Brisbane, Gold Coast and Adelaide.

Forecasts by global financial services company Credit Suisse show Chinese investment is expected to increase in 2018 in Australia, despite tough lending restrictions, limits on how much cash can come out of China to invest in property and a Foreign Investment Review Board ban on offshore buyers purchasing existing homes.

However, investment bank UBS has predicted those same imposts to result in an easing of demand in 2018, particularly as Australia’s comparatively high property prices result in price-sensitive investors seeking other destinations.

6

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

Juwai.com chief executive Carrie Law said she did not expect the behaviour of Chinese buyers to change markedly in 2018, with prospective purchasers most attracted to Melbourne’s lower prices in comparison with Sydney, top universities and its vast and colourful cultural offerings.

Behind Melbourne and Sydney, Ms Law said a clear second-tier was emerging in Australia in terms of Chinese interest, with Gold Coast and Brisbane the leaders of the country’s secondary cities.

Ms Law said that second tier was being created largely because of activity by Chinese developers.

China-based developers recently active in Gold Coast and Brisbane include Beijing’s Peng Bo Group, which launched its first Australian project in late March, and Guangzhou R&F Properties, which unveiled a $500 million plan to develop a riverside mixed-use precinct in Brisbane’s West End in April.

“Some of the Chinese developers are also acquiring land there and they have been tailor-making products that appeal to the Chi-

IN DEMAND Melbourne’s cultural flair, as well as its hot residential market, have made it the top choice for Chinese investors.

Photo: Wayne Yew 墨尔本的文化品位和火热的住宅市场让它 成为中国投资者的首选。图片来源: 韦恩·杨

丹·威尔基

墨尔本地产令对澳投资的中国投资客为 之着迷，主要原因为墨尔本具有多元文化 和顶级高校。

来自中国国际地产门户网站居外网（Juwai. com）的数据显示，墨尔本是2018年澳大利 亚最受中国买家青睐的地点，其次是悉尼、 布里斯河、黄金海岸和阿德莱德。 全球金融服务公司瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)的预测显示，尽管存在严格的贷 款限制，限制中国海外投资房地产的资金 数量，以及外国投资审查委员会(Foreign investment Review Board)对海外买 家购买现有住房的禁令，但预计2018年在 澳的中国投资额将持续增长。 不过，投资银行瑞银(UBS)曾预测，在 2018年将会出现同样的贷款政策收紧情 况，从而导致需求放缓，同时澳大利亚居 高不下的地产价格使对价格敏感的投资 者寻求其他投资目的地。

居外网首席执行官罗雪欣表示，她预计中 国买家的整体方向在2018年不会发生显 著变化，因为与悉尼相比，墨尔本的顶级

地产 nese market,” Ms Law told Australia China Business Review.

“These developers, they have been successful in China, and they have a steady consumer base already.

“And they are actually more diverse than any other developers locally in Australia, or any other part of the world, in knowing how to talk or how to market to Chinese people.

“They also have more channels to create property tours or to create an atmosphere of urgency with locations and projects that are very popular and will be bought very quickly, convincing people they have to buy now and not later.

“They know how to create that phenomenon – it’s a very different sales atmosphere and dynamic.”

In Perth and Adelaide, state governments are focusing on developing new initiatives to boost international student numbers, to create flow-on benefits in other sectors of the economy.

However, Ms Law said for those flow-on effects to reach the property sector, more needed to be done for developers to understand the Chinese market, and for Chinese buyers to understand each city’s offering.

“Some developers have been aggressively marketing Perth as a great location, it has all the facilities, the great infrastructure developments and the government has been spending, to create more commercial opportunities and more jobs for investors or for people who aspire to invest in Australia,” Ms Law said.

“However, there is still a kind of perception that Perth is stuck 10 years behind.

“It’s still seen as up and coming, still a little bit primitive compared with other destinations in Australia.

“That’s the perception, to dispel that in China there needs to be more education, I believe.”

Juwai.com’s data correlates neatly with research released by Knight Frank earlier this year, which showed that more than a third of residential development site sales in Australia in 2017 were to Chinese buyers.

Chinese buyers accounted for 38.7 per cent of all residential site sales in Victoria, and 35.6 per cent of development plot sales in NSW. Knight Frank said Chinese developers had been diversifying their portfolios in recent years, pursuing medium and lower-density projects, whereas historically their preference had been for higher-density development.

Around 29 per cent of all development site sales to Chinese buyers in 2017 were plots suited for low-density development, with 17.1 per cent considered appropriate for medium-density development.

In 2013 and 2014, more than 98 per cent of development sites sold to Chinese buyers were for high-density projects, Knight Frank said.

WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

大学、浓郁的人文气息、以及更低的价格 使这座文化之都更受青睐。

罗女士表示，毋庸置疑墨尔本和悉尼是澳 大利亚最吸引中国投资者的一线城市，一 些二线城市也紧随其后崭露头角，而黄金 海岸和布里斯班则成为其中的佼佼者。 罗女士同时表示，这类第二梯队的形成主 要归功于中国开发商的商业活动。

最近在黄金海岸和布里斯班活跃的中国 开发商包括北京的彭博集团(Peng Bo Group) 和广州富力地产(Guangzhou R&F Properties)，彭博集团在3月底推出 了其首个澳大利亚项目，而富力地产在今 年4月也推出估值5亿澳元计划，将在布里 斯班的西区开发一个滨河多功能住宅区。

“一些中国开发商也在那里购置土地， 他们一如既往地为吸引中国市场而定制 产品，”罗女士在接受《澳中商讯》(China Business Review)采访时表示。 “这些开发商在中国大获成功，他们也拥 有了稳定的消费群基础。”

“他们实际上比澳大利亚本地或世界上 任何开发商更多样化，他们知道如何与中 国人打交道，或者如何向中国市场推销 产品。 “他们也有更多的渠道来开发地产旅游， 或者给消费者营造出洛阳纸贵供不应求 的紧迫感，让人们相信过了这个村就没这 个店。” “他们知道如何将营销策略运用到极 致——这是一个非常不同的销售氛围和 动态。”

在珀斯和阿德莱德，各州政府正致力于发 展新的举措，以提高国际学生人数，在其 他经济领域创造出更多的效益。 然而罗女士表示，为了让本地开发商了解 中国市场，同时中国买家了解澳大利亚各 个城市的特色产品，以及达到房地产行业 的流动效应，还需要做更多的工作。

| PROPERTY

RISING Developers are tailoring products for Chinese buyers, increasing interest from investors in Brisbane. 越来越多的开发商正在为中国买家量身打 造产品，这使得投资者对布里斯班市场兴 趣倍增。

她说:“开发商一直在积极地推销珀斯，把 它宣传为一个优质地点，它拥有各种设 施，完善的基础设施，为投资者和未来渴 望在澳大利亚投资的人群创造更多的商 业机会和就业机会。”

“然而，人们也有另外一种看法，他们认 为珀斯已沉睡了10年之久。

“虽然珀斯被认为是充满前景的，但与澳 大利亚的其他热点城市相比仍然有些落 后。”

“这就是我们的看法，珀斯需要在中国市 场做更多宣传。”

Juwai.com的数据与莱坊(Knight Frank)今年早些时候发布的研究结果相 吻合。该研究显示，2017年澳大利亚逾三 分之一的住宅开发网站销售是面向中国 买家的。

中国买家占维多利亚州所有住宅地产销 售的38.7%，同时也占新南威尔士州住宅 地产销售额的35.6%。

莱坊表示，近年来，中国开发商一直在多 元化投资组合，追求中低密度项目，而以 往他们青睐的则是更高密度的开发项目。 2017年，所有面向中国买家的地产开 发中，约有29%是适合低密度开发的地 块，17.1%的地块适合中密度开发。 莱坊(Knight Frank)表示，2013年和 2014年，向中国买家出售的地块中，逾 98%是用于高密度项目。 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

7

COVER STORY | 封面故事

Multiplex公司的中国策略 Early China engagement a boost for Multiplex 8

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

封面故事

| COVER STORY

Dan Wilkie CHINESE developers remain a key component of the growth strategy for one of Australia’s biggest building companies, Multiplex, despite fears of a slowdown in activity due to tight local credit conditions and strict controls on capital outflows from China.

Over the past five years, Chinese developers have descended on Australia, helping to spark exponential growth in this country’s construction sector.

China-backed companies such as Greenland Group, Dalian Wanda Group, Greaton, Longton Property Group and Country Garden have collectively put together an impressive track record of project delivery, shaking up residential apartment markets across Australia’s eastern seaboard.

In 2013, just 11 per cent of all development site sales in Australia were to China-backed firms, according to data released by Knight Frank.

Last year, that share rose to 33 per cent, collectively totalling $2.02 billion.

While that was a reduction from the 38 per cent share of transactions recorded in 2016, the Knight Frank data is nonetheless indicative of the rapid growth and substantial impact that has occurred.

As a result, Chinese developers have become an increasingly important growth driver for local construction companies, according to Multiplex Victoria regional director Frank McMahon.

Mr McMahon told Australia China Business Review the company had put in place a strategy about five years ago to target Chinese companies interested in expanding to Australia.

“Research was telling us where the weight of capital around the world was sitting, and it showed that there was at that time a large number of Chinese development groups within China looking to expand their business in other countries, and Australia ticked a lot of their boxes when it came to decision making,” Mr McMahon said.

“The strategy was predominantly to introduce a sound business on the ground in Australia, which was very strong in delivery with a track record of 50-plus years of experience and a very safe pair of hands.”

Mr McMahon said the early stages of the strategy were to educate those interested in

丹·威尔基

尽管人们担心由于当地信贷环境紧张，以及 中国对资本外流的严格控制，中国经济活动 也预计放缓，但来自中国的开发商仍然被全 澳最大建筑商之一的Multiplex公司所青 睐，并列入长期战略合作伙伴。 在过去的五年里，中国开发商已在澳登陆， 帮助澳洲建筑行业实现了指数级增长。

具有中国背景的企业，如绿地集团、大连万 达集团、有武汉正堂置业有限公司背景的 Greaton集团、龙腾房地产集团和碧桂园澳 洲分公司Country Garden集团，共同打造 了令人叹为观止的项目交付记录，极大地震 撼了整个澳洲东部沿海地区的公寓市场。 根据莱坊发布的数据，2013年，澳大利亚所 有开发销售中，具有中方背景的公司只占其 中11%。 而在去年地一年中，这一比例攀升至33%， 共计20.2亿澳元。

尽管这比2016年记录的交易中38%的份额 有所下降，但莱坊的数据仍显示它会飞速增 长同时产生重大影响。 因此，根据Multiplex维多利亚州区域总经 理弗兰克•麦克马洪的说法，中国开发商 已成为当地建筑行业中日益增长的发展驱 动力。

麦克马洪先生对《澳中商讯》表示，该公司在 五年前就制定了一项战略，目标群体是有意 向澳扩张的中国企业。

“研究表明,世界各地有重量的投资公司正 在静观其变,这也说明当时有大量的中国开 发商希望扩大其海外市场。澳大利亚方面也 摩拳擦掌拭目以待,”麦克马洪先生说。 “这一战略旨在澳大利亚推出一项稳健的 业务，

我们拥有超过50年的行业经验，同时我们从 不失手。 ” 麦克马洪先生表示，该战略的早期阶段是，

We were going to them in their homeland and meeting them in their cities certainly went a long way in the trust line – Frank McMahon

我们去往他们的家乡，走访他们的城市，三顾茅庐。我们走 过了漫长的道路，直至坦诚相待。——弗兰克·麦克马洪

BUILDING UP Frank McMahon says Multiplex initiated a strategy to target Chinese developers in the early part of the decade.

Photo: Multiplex IMPACT At 63 levels, the EQ Tower is Melbourne’s eighth-tallest building.

径行直遂 弗兰克•麦克马洪表 示，Multiplex公司在本世纪初启动了 面向中国开发商的战略部署。图片来 源：Multiplex WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

目眩神摇 高达63层的EQ塔项目是墨尔本 高度排名第八的建筑。

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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expanding to Australia on local construction, contracting and procurement processes, in the context of Multiplex’s strong track record of delivery.

“They had little experience in contracting within Australia, so that was very beneficial for them to actually hear from a contractor directly,” said Mr McMahon, who travelled to China around eight times per year when initiating the strategy.

“But even more so, we were showing a lot of respect, and doing business with China is all about trust.

“The fact that we were going to them in their homeland and meeting them in their cities certainly went a long way in the trust line.”

Multiplex’s China engagement strategy is paying off, with Mr McMahon saying the company’s research showed Australian project acquisition and development activity had grown from around 12 per cent per year to peak at 42 per cent over the past five years.

Some of the biggest jobs on its books, which in 2016-17 comprised a development pipeline worth $5.1 billion, according to the HIA-Core Logic Construction 100, were now coming from Chinese developers, he said.

In Victoria, Multiplex recently completed Lighthouse, a $170 million, 67-level tower for Hengyi Pacific and Sixth Grange, which was named the best high-rise residential project in Australia at the 2018 Asia Pacific Property Awards.

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AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

Multiplex also recently finished work on the $340 million EQ Tower for ICD Property and Sino-Ocean Land, a 63-level building containing 633 apartments.

Works under way by Multiplex for Chinese firms include the first stage of Queens Place, a $1 billion vertical community located on Melbourne’s Flagstaff Hill, which is being developed by 3L Alliance, as well as Swanston Central, a 72-level, 1,039 apartment tower being developed by Hengyi Pacific.

Multiplex is also building the $1 billion Jewel development on the Gold Coast, a three-tower residential precinct, once feared to have been derailed by China’s capital outflow restrictions.

The project’s original developers, Wanda Group and China Ridong, exited the Jewel project earlier this year, selling it to the Australian subsidiary of Yuhu Group in the wake of the Chinese government’s restrictions on the types of overseas projects firms could finance.

While the Jewel experience sent shudders through the market, raising fears the Chineseled development boom could be coming to an end, Mr McMahon remained confident there was further to run.

“Without doubt there is a slowing in activity, but what we are seeing is that the number of Chinese groups that have now got a track record in Australia, and have delivered projects, they are recycling their capital or their profits back into the business

that is now established here in the Australian market,” Mr McMahon said.

“They are not repatriating back to China, because once the money enters China, it’s very difficult to excise that, given the restrictions on the outflows.

“Recent market entrants have their challenges, but we have done extremely well to partner with what I would deem to be bluechip groups.

“They are sophisticated, they have established their special purpose vehicles, they have listed either in Singapore or Hong Kong, their capital has exited China, and they may have been working on that for the last number of years, and now they are able to actually invest in property within the Australian market.”

On the other side of the country, Western Australia’s capital city, Perth, has not yet experienced high levels of activity by Chinese developers.

Recently released Foreign Investment Review Board data showed that just 5 per cent of foreign property purchases were made in WA in 2016-17, indicating the state was not appearing on the radar for Chinese developers.

Nevertheless, Multiplex WA regional director Chris Palandri said inquiry from Chinese developers had been increasing around 24 months ago, as property markets in Sydney and Melbourne approached the peak of their respective price cycles.

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| COVER STORY

MOMENTUM Chris Palandri says Chinese developers are beginning to have a substantial impact on WA construction. Photo: Philip Gostelow 乘风破浪 克里斯·帕兰德里说，中国开发商 开始对西澳建设产生举足轻重的影响。图片 来源:菲利普·葛斯特罗

FLAIR Hengyi Pacific and Sixth Grange’s Lighthouse is typical of the architectural flourishes pursued by Chinese developers. 恒易集团和Sixth Grange集团联手打造的 女王之光项目（Lighthouse）是中国开发商 蓬勃发展的典型代表。 运用Multiplex口碑载道以及良好的业绩， 对那些有意在当地建设、承包和采购的海外 企业进行引导。

They are a really important part of the market, because you’re not seeing other local developers undertake developments of that scale – Chris Palandri

“他们几乎没有在澳运作的经验，所以对他 们来说，能亲耳听到当地承包商的意见是大 有裨益的。 ”麦克马洪先生说，他在发起这一 策略时，大约每年往返中国八次。 “更重要的是，我们表现出了极大的尊重， 与中国人打交道，一切都是为了彼此信任。 “我们去往他们的家乡，走访他们的城市， 三顾茅庐。我们走过了漫长的道路，直至坦 诚相待。 ”

Multiplex的“面向中国”战略正在取得回 报。麦克马洪先生表示，其公司的研究显示， 过去5年，对澳的项目收购与发展活动已从 每年12%左右直线上升，达到惊人的42%。 他说，在其计划中有一些大动作，2016-17年 度Multiplex工程总值51亿澳元。根据行业 分析报告《HIA-Core Logic Construction 100》显示，这些现象的产生正是由于中国开 发商的到来。

在维多利亚州，Multiplex公司、恒易集团及 Sixth Grange集团于近期完工的价值1.7亿 澳元、67层的女王之光项目（Lighthouse）， 在2018年的亚太地产大奖上它被评为全澳 最佳高层住宅项目。 此外，Multiplex公司最近完成了为ICD地 产和远洋集团开发的价值3.4亿澳元的项 目，该建筑高63层，并可容纳633套公寓。 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

他们是市场中非常重要的组成部分，因为你闻所未闻其 他本地开发商能达到这种规模——克里斯·帕兰德里

Multiplex为中国公司所做的工作包括：位 于墨尔本的弗拉格斯山的英皇广场双子塔 项目（Queens Place）的第一阶段，该项目 是一个价值高达10亿澳元、由3L Alliance 公司开发的垂直社区。同期项目还有由恒易 集团开发的72层高、可容纳1,039套公寓的 Swanston Central项目。

Multiplex公司还在黄金海岸建造了价值10 亿澳元的珠宝三塔项目（Jewel），该住宅项 目一度被中国限制资本外流政策所限制。 该项目最初的开发商万达集团和中国珠海 日东集团于今年早些时候从中退出，并将其 出售给了玉湖集团的澳大利亚分公司。此 前，中国监管部门已勒令银行收紧对大集团 的资金借贷。

尽管珠宝三塔项目的经历让市场不寒而栗， 人们甚至一度怀疑中国引领的发展热潮很 可能即将结束，但麦克马洪先生坚定不移地 相信会有进一步发展。

“节奏无疑将被放缓，但我们看到的是，中 国企业在澳数量已经打破纪录，并交付了大

量项目，他们正对已投资的澳洲生意进行资 金回笼或坐享收益”麦克马洪先生说。

“他们不会就这样返回中国，因为一旦资金 进入中国，就会因资金外流限制而面临税 收难题。 ” 近期，进入澳洲市场变得严峻，不过我们公 司与我看中的蓝筹股公司合作相当愉快。

“他们很成熟，并且已经建立了各自的特殊 渠道，甚至已经在新加坡或香港上市了。他 们的资本已从中国撤离，或许在过去的几年 里他们一直致力于此。现在，他们完全有能 力对澳大利亚的地产市场进行投资。 “ 在澳大利亚的另一端，西澳大利亚州的首府 珀斯还没有经历过中国开发商的高水准“ 洗礼”。

最近公布的海外投资审查委员会的数据显 示，2016 - 17年度只有5％的海外买家交易 是在西澳产生的，这表明它还未在中国开发 商眼前脱颖而出。 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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“But that probably happened concurrent with the Chinese restrictions on capital outflows taking place, so the developers started to step out of the market,” Mr Palandri said.

“While we were getting inquiry, that inquiry seems to have dropped off in the last 12 to 18 months.”

Chinese developers active in WA include Far East Consortium, the Hong Kongheadquartered global development group responsible for bringing the Ritz-Carlton luxury hotel chain back to the Australian market, and Zone Q Investments, the Australian arm of JiaHe JianAn Investment Group, one of Shenzhen’s largest property players.

Along with the Ritz-Carlton and The Towers, Far East is also advancing plans for four other major developments in Perth’s CBD, comprising apartments, hotels and student accommodation.

Zone Q initially arrived in WA with a $100 million apartment project in South Perth, which was completed last year, while plans for an additional two towers in near-city locations were derailed by patchy market conditions.

While Zone Q has made headlines recently with commercial property purchases, spending around $250 million on assets in Perth, Melbourne and Sydney, industry sources suggest it is preparing to return to the WA apartment market with a redesigned plan for its second South Perth tower.

Another China-backed developer, 3 Oceans Property, remains mired in the approvals process for a two-tower, $500 million hotel 12

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

and residential plan in the beachside suburb of Scarborough, which Multiplex is in line to construct.

Mr Palandri said while Chinese developers had not arrived in numbers in WA like they had on the east coast, they were nonetheless providing a substantial boost to the local construction sector.

“They are a really important part of the market, because you’re not seeing other local developers undertake developments of that scale,” Mr Palandri said.

“It’s a really important thing for the market in terms of jobs and the development of Western Australia that these sorts of projects get off the ground.

“With the Ritz-Carlton at Elizabeth Quay, and 3 Oceans developing the tower and the apartments as well as the hotel and convention centre at Scarborough Beach, they are massive game-changers for the state, and assets that we haven’t seen the likes of in Western Australia before.”

Mr Palandri said Far East’s and 3 Oceans’ projects had the potential to become catalysts for more Chinese activity in WA, particularly if east coast development sites became too expensive for viable development.

“I’d like to think that the residential market will continue to improve in Western Australia, and that feels like it’s happening at the moment,” Mr Palandri said.

“It feels to me like the residential market in the eastern seaboard is coming off, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne at the moment, and perhaps that would start to

garner some interest in Western Australia from Chinese developers, and others.”

Outside of Australia, Multiplex has been increasing its presence in other markets, most notably India, the Middle East, the United Kingdom and Canada.

Multiplex’s parent company, global property investment giant Brookfield Asset Management, has also been focusing on efforts to expand its China presence, however, that does not include any plans to enter the China construction market.

Instead, Mr Palandri said Multiplex would continue to source building materials and fixtures from Chinese manufacturers, in order to realise cost efficiency and quality advantages over its competitors in the Australian market.

“The China construction market is very well established, and they have quite strong construction companies, and of course some of them have got investment in construction companies in Australia, John Holland being the most obvious one,” Mr Palandri said.

“Multiplex has no intention at all of expanding into China, we are pretty fixed at the moment on the construction markets that are in Australia, India, the Middle East, Europe, primarily being the UK, and Toronto in Canada, that’s pretty much our footprint at the moment.

“Given how strong the construction market is in China and given how complicated it would be for a company like Multiplex to stroll into China and start building buildings, that doesn’t fit into our strategy.”

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STRIKING If approved, 3 Oceans Property’s Iconic Scarborough is expected to be a game-changer for the seaside suburb. Image: 3 Oceans 鹤立鸡群 一经获批，三洋地产位于斯卡伯 勒区的Iconic项目将会彻底改变西澳海岸 线风光。图片来源：三洋集团

不过，Multiplex西澳州区域总经理克里斯· 帕兰德里表示，大约24个月之前，随着悉尼 和墨尔本的房地产市场达到各自价格周期 的顶峰，中国开发商对西澳的考察一直有 所增加。

“但是，可能与中国限制资本流出政策有 关，中国开发商渐渐离开当地市场，”帕兰德 里先生说。 “根据我们研究，这种考察力度在过去的12 到18个月中似乎又有所下降。 ”

在西澳活跃的中国开发商包括远东发展有 限公司（Far East Consortium），这家总部 位于香港的全球范围开发集团负责将连锁 豪华酒店丽思卡尔顿带回到澳洲市场，以及 深圳最大地产公司之一的中国嘉禾建安集 团在澳大利亚的分公司Zone Q投资公司。 除了丽思卡尔顿酒店和双子塔之外，远东地 区还在推进珀斯CBD的其他四个主要项目 发展计划，包括公寓、酒店和学生宿舍。 Zone Q最早在珀斯进行的项目是，位于南 珀斯区（South Perth）价值1亿澳元的公寓 项目，于去年已经竣工。而原计划在市中心 附近建立的两座高楼因市场表现不佳而受 阻。

然后Zone Q最近因购买商业地产而登上头 条新闻，其在珀斯、墨尔本和悉尼的资产支 出约为2.5亿澳元，业内消息人士表示，该公 司正准备重返西澳公寓市场，重新设计在南 珀斯区的第二栋大厦。

位于斯卡伯勒区（Scarborough），该项目也 由Multiplex公司负责建设工作。 帕兰德里先生表示，尽管这里中国开发商的 规模数量并不像东澳的那样庞大，但他们仍 为当地的建筑行业提供了巨大的推动力。 帕兰德里先生也表示： “它们是市场中非常 重要的组成部分，因为你闻所未闻其他本地 开发商能达到这种规模。 ” 于市场而言，这类项目的启动无论是对西澳 的就业问题还是州发展方向上，都是至关 重要的。 ”

“伊丽莎白码头的丽思卡尔顿酒店，以及三 洋集团在斯卡伯勒海滨的公寓、酒店、会议 中心综合项目，这些项目都是整个州乃至国 家真正的革新者，也是我们之前从未在西澳 热土上见识过的瑰宝。 ” 帕兰德里先生说，远东发展集团和三洋集团 的项目很有可能成为吸引中国在西澳投资 的催化剂，尤其是当东澳地产业价格高到难 以开发之时。

“我认为西澳的住宅市场将会蒸蒸日上，就 像此时此刻，我就可以感受到这种变化。 ”

“在我看来，东澳的住宅市场发展迅猛，尤 其是在悉尼和墨尔本，或许这些中国开发商 也会将目光投向西澳。 ”

除了澳洲本土市场，Multiplex公司也在逐 步开拓海外市场，比如印度、中东地区、英国 和加拿大市场。

Multiplex公司的母公司——全球房地 产投资巨头布鲁克菲尔德资产管理公司 （Brookfield Asset Management）也一 直致力于扩大其在中国的业务，然而，这并 不包括任何进入中国建筑市场的计划。

相反，帕兰德里先生表示，Multiplex公司将 继续向中国制造商采购建筑材料和固定装 置，以实现与澳方竞争对手相比的成本效益 和质量优势。

“中国建筑市场建立得非常好，他们有实力 雄厚的建筑公司，当然其中有一些已经投资 了澳建筑企业，John Holland就是最具代 表的公司。 ” “Multiplex公司无意扩张到中国，我们目 前在澳大利亚，印度，中东，欧洲，英国和加 拿大多伦多市的建筑市场上相当稳定，这就 是我们现阶段的状况。

“鉴于中国建筑市场的牢固性，同时考虑到 像Multiplex这样的公司进入中国建筑行业 从零开始的复杂程度，我想这实在有悖我们 的战略方针。 ”

另一家有中国背景的地产开发商三洋集团 （3 Oceans Property）仍然处于项目审批 过程中，这个价值5亿澳元的海滨双塔项目 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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EXPERTISE Ian Brighthope has vast experience in the Chinese market, dating back nearly three decades.

Photo: Nutrition Care 行家里手 伊恩·布莱特霍普非常了解中 国市场，甚至可以追溯到近30年前。 图片来源：纽新宝

谋求出口中国合伙 人的两条捷径

中国消费者对高端进口产品的需求让出口商眼前一亮，但 在全球竞争中，纽新宝、Brownes乳业等澳大利亚公司表 示，他们需要合适的当地合作伙伴才能成功。

Two paths to perfect China export partners Chinese consumers’ taste for premium imported products provides lucrative prospects for exporters, but up against global competition, Australian companies such as Nutrition Care and Brownes Dairy say they needed the right local partner to succeed.

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AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

新闻

| NEWS

Dan Wilkie ONE of Australia’s oldest vitamins manufacturers is experiencing surging demand for its products in China, nearly three decades after its entrance to the world’s fastest-growing and most lucrative retail market.

In the first quarter of 2018, Melbourne-based Nutrition Care recorded a five-fold increase in sales compared with the full 12 months of 2017, as Chinese demand for its Australian-manufactured health supplements began to skyrocket.

However, entering the Chinese market was not strictly a simple proposition for Nutrition Care, which was established in the 1970s as the Brighthope Clinic and Biocentre.

Led by nutritional pioneer Ian Brighthope, who began his career in agricultural science and food research before transitioning into medical practice, Nutrition Care made its first foray into China in the 1990s, shortly after establishing its manufacturing facility in Melbourne.

Professor Brighthope had developed a range of gastro-intestinal, lactose intolerance, metabolism and liver health supplements for use at the Brighthope clinics, which were proving popular among other doctors after producing positive results from many patients.

Entering the China market at that time was a logical step but Professor Brighthope said the company’s efforts of expansion were derailed because of issues with its export partner in Hong Kong.

“We were the first Australian vitamins company who went into China, far, far earlier than Blackmores or Swisse or any of the others,” Professor Brighthope told Australia China Business Review.

“That early sojourn was not successful, because the company in Hong Kong stopped funding their company in China, so it damaged our business there.

“But I kept an interest in doing something in China because it’s the largest local market for us, and also I wanted to globalise the product and also the educational services and training we provide, so we found the right partner.”

That partner was Hong Kong-listed Ausnutria Dairy Corporation, which took a 75 per cent stake in Nutrition Care for $30 million in 2016.

Since then, demand for Nutrition Care’s supplements has rocketed, tapping into Chinese consumers’ growing propensity to spend big on health and wellness products.

According to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council, China’s health supplement market is expected to increase by between 10 per cent and 15 per cent annually, from around ¥260 billion ($53.8 billion) in 2016 to ¥400 billion ($82.8 billion) in 2021.

Professor Brighthope said he was confident that this time Nutrition Care had selected the right partner to cash in on that growing demand for internationally manufactured products.

WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

丹·威尔基

澳大利亚老字号维他命制造商之一，在进 入全球增长最快、利润最丰厚的零售市 场近30年后，其产品在中国的需求正在 激增。 与过往一整年相比，墨尔本纽新宝集团在 2018年第一季度销售额增长了5倍，原因 则是中国对澳大利亚制造的保健品的需 求开始飙升。

然而，严格意义上来讲，这并不是纽新宝 首次进入中国市场，而其前身则是在约50 年前建立的布莱特霍普临床与生物研究 中心。 在营养药物学先驱者伊恩•布莱特霍普 的带领下（布莱特霍普的职业生涯始于农 业科学和食品研究等领域），纽新宝在上 世纪90年代首次进军中国市场。在此前 不久，该公司刚在墨尔本建立了自己的加 工厂。 布莱特霍普教授研发了一系列针对肠胃 病、乳糖不耐受、新陈代谢不良和肝脏健

康的保健品，用于在布莱特霍普研究所使 用。在许多病患临床实验结果良好后，其 研究所在医药行业中广受赞誉。

当时进入中国市场战略是合乎逻辑的一 步棋，但布莱特霍普教授表示，该公司的 扩张因在香港的出口合伙人问题而受阻。

“我们才是首家进入中国市场的澳 大利亚维生素企业，远远早于澳佳宝 （Blackmores）、Swisse或其他任何一 家同类企业。”布莱特霍普教授对《澳中 商讯》如是说到。

“早期的中国之旅并不成功，主要由于香 港公司中止了对中国内地的投资，所以也 严重损害了我们在中国的业务。”

“但我本人一直有兴趣在中国做点什么， 因为它是我们最大的市场，同时也想做成 全球化产品，以及提供相关的教育服务和 培训。功夫不负有心人，最终我们找到了 合适的合作伙伴。”

合作伙伴是在香港上市的澳优乳业集团， 在2016年，其以3,000万澳币收购纽新宝 75%的股权。

We manufacture all of our products here in Australia, and that was one of the attractions for Ausnutria to buy 75 per cent of the business – Ian Brighthope

我们在澳大利亚本土负责生产所有的产品，这就是澳优乳业 收购我们75%股权的根本所在——伊恩·布莱特霍普 SEARCH Ian Brighthope said the process of selection to find the right Chinese partner was an extensive one. 上下求索 伊恩·布莱特霍普表示，选择合适 的中国合伙人，路漫漫其修远兮。

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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NEWS | 新闻 “Chinese consumers hold Australian-manufactured products in high regard, but they can’t be guaranteed that all products are Australian manufactured just because it is coming from an Australian marketing company,” he said.

“Some of the biggest brands here don’t manufacture their own products. We manufacture all of our products here in Australia, and that was one of the attractions for Ausnutria to buy 75 per cent of the business.

“Their chairman, Yan Weibin, has a very similar philosophy about business and healthcare as I do, so we have a good match.

“They are quite large in China, they are the largest infant formula company providing goats milk infant formula to the Chinese population, which is a very good formula for children with allergies.

“They are also expanding into camels milk, but their focus is largely on infant formula from Australia, Europe and New Zealand.”

Professor Brighthope said the process of selection for partnership with Ausnutria was an extensive one, which took place over several years of travel between Australia and China.

“I spoke a lot to people, to people in business, I went to trade shows, and eventually I found Ausnutria of interest,” he said.

“Our partnership with Ausnutria has also given us some opportunities with some of the other companies that have invested in Ausnutria – most of these companies are public companies.

“They are involved in health and medicine, and one of our specialities is in the area of probiotics.

“One example, Bioengine, has ownership of a probiotic research facility in Taiwan, so the synergies have been absolutely fantastic.”

Dairy deal

In Western Australia, the state’s oldest dairy, Brownes, recently found its own partner to enter the Chinese milk market – in of the the country’s biggest cheesemakers.

Shanghai Ground Food Tech Co acquired Brownes in November last year, the culmination of a year-long sales process conducted by the dairy’s former owner, private equity group Archer Capital.

The company has four cheese and milk processing plants in Shanghai, Changchun, Tianjin and Jilin, with a processing capacity of about 400,000 tonnes.

Speaking at a recent Committee for Economic Development of Australia event, Brownes chief executive Tony Girgis said Shanghai Ground Food’s supply chain touched around 90 cities in China, making the company the perfect partner to roll out Brownes’ range of fresh milk, yogurt and cheese products.

“Right from the beginning when we had people from Ground Food come and look at the business, I and the management team felt the most comfortable,” Mr Girgis said.

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“First of all because they were in the game, they have been at it for a while and are very successful.

“They are a family business, and we were essentially founded as a family business so there was an immediate fit and we felt we could work with these people.

“The most important thing is they said ‘you can continue to do what you do, we won’t interfere’ and that is truly the case today.”

Mr Girgis said Brownes had decided to enter the Chinese market in 2015, two years before the Shanghai Ground Food deal was finalised.

“A critical point is finding the right partner, I remember at one stage around 2015, I would have met 15 potential partners that wanted us to work with them and take the brand to China,” Mr Girgis told attendees at the CEDA forum.

“When you meet the first, the second and the third, the numbers are intoxicating. They tell you what they can do with your product in the market and you say ‘wow, I want that’.

“Then the reality hits very quickly.”

That reality, according to Mr Girgis, includes the sophisticated nature of China’s retail market.

China’s dairy market is one of rapid growth, particularly when compared with Australia’s.

While Australian dairy consumption was growing at an annual rate of less than 1 per cent, China’s was growing at 6 per cent, Mr Girgis said.

Cheese consumption is growing even more rapidly in China, at a rate of between 17 and 20 per cent each year.

Those numbers provided a compelling

proposition for Brownes, but Mr Girgis said Australian and New Zealand-based dairy product manufacturers were not the only ones to take notice, with European dairies firmly focused on supplying Chinese demand.

“Today when you’re getting into the milk or dairy markets in China, you have to have a compelling proposition,” Mr Girgis said. “(Chinese consumers) are spoiled for choice. They are very fussy, and they are very sophisticated.”

Brownes’ biggest challenge in China, alongside cutting through competition on supermarket shelves, is dealing with supply chain challenges.

Mr Girgis said while Brownes’ products attracted a healthy premium on Chinese shelves as compared with Australian supermarkets, ensuring the range arrived in a fresh and consumable condition eroded much of that margin.

Adding to that cost pressure is the fact that manufacturing in Australia is often done at a higher cost for Brownes than its competitors.

“Manufacturing is difficult, not just in WA,” Mr Girgis said.

“I started my career in manufacturing and it’s been on a downhill trajectory for a long, long time.

“It doesn’t matter what industry you are in, you really have to be on the ball with your costs and supply chains and efficiencies and so on, and Australia now competes in a very big, global market.

“The premiums we used to command in WA are not that premium any more, there are lots of other choices that are just as good.”

新闻 来自澳大利亚、欧洲和新西兰的婴幼儿配 方奶粉。” 布莱特霍普教授说，与澳优乳业的合作历 程说来话长，其实是发生在澳中间的多次 旅途中。 他说： “我与中国商务人士进行了大量对 话，我也参加了各种贸易展，最终引起了 澳优乳业的兴趣。”

“与澳优乳业的合作也给我们带来了全 新的机会，接触到了澳优乳业的其他股 东——而这些股东或多或少都掌握上市 公司。

“他们涉及健康医学领域，益生菌领域则 是我们的专长之一。

“举个Bioengine的例子吧，它在台湾地 区拥有一家益生菌研究所。这种协同效应 绝对是百益而无一害的。” 乳品生意

西澳大利亚州拥有最长久历史的乳业公 司Brownes集团最近找到了通向中国乳 品市场的合伙人——中国一家顶级奶酪 制造企业。

去年11月，上海广泽食品科技股份有限公 自那时起，中国消费者对纽新宝的需求量 激增，他们也愈来愈倾向于在健康护理及 医药品上投资。

据香港贸易发展局统计，从2016年至 2021年，中国保健品市场预计年涨幅高 达10%至15%，从原有的2600亿人民币 （538亿美元）突破4000亿人民币（828亿 美元）大关。

教授说，他确信此次纽新宝已经找到了完 美的合伙人，以满足中国对国际制造产品 日益增长的需求。

“中国消费者高度重视澳大利亚制造的 产品，但绝不会仅仅因为一家澳企，就完 全信任所有的澳洲保健品。”他说。

“澳洲一些大品牌其实并负责生产自己 的产品。我们在澳大利亚本土负责生产所 有的产品，这就是澳优乳业收购我们75% 股权的根本所在。 “澳优乳业董事长颜卫彬，与我志同道 合，对商业医疗有着非常相似的看法，所 以我们才不约而同地携手并进。”

“他们在中国实力雄厚，而且是最大的羊 奶婴儿配方奶粉企业，这对患有过敏症的 儿童来说是绝佳配方。” “他们也在向骆驼奶粉进军，但重点仍是

SELECTIVE Tony Girgis said Brownes met with at least 15 groups throughout its sales campaign. Photo: CEDA 择善而从 托尼·杰尔吉斯说，Brownes乳业 在整个销售活动中会见了超过15个团体。图 片来源:CEDA WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

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杰尔吉斯在CEDA论坛上对出席来宾 说： “我记得，在2015年前后的某个阶段， 我遇到了15个希望将Brownes推广至中 国的潜在合作伙伴。”

“当你接二连三的遇到这些人，这个过程 是令人陶醉的。他们会告诉你能帮你的产 品做到无法想象的地步，你会情不自禁地 说，哇，我真想就这么做。 “然后，现实很快将你拍醒。”

杰尔吉斯表示，这一现实包括中国零售市 场的复杂程度。 中国的乳制品市场正在飞速发展，尤其是 与澳大利亚相比。

杰尔吉斯也表示，澳大利亚的乳制品消费 量仅以每年不到1%的速度增长，反观中 国的乳制品消费量，其正以6%的增幅迅 速扩大。 中国奶酪消费的增长速度甚至更快，年增 长率高达17%-20%。 这些数据为Brownes提供了强有力的建 议，但杰尔吉斯强调，并不是只有澳大利 亚和新西兰的乳制品制造商注意到这一 点，欧洲的乳制品企业更专注于供应中国 的需求。

(Chinese consumers) are spoiled for choice … they are very fussy, and they are very sophisticated – Tony Girgis

（中国消费者）早已习惯了琳琅满目的产品。他们不仅非常 挑剔，而且异常老练——托尼·杰尔吉斯 司（下文简称上海广泽）收购了Brownes 公司，这也将私募股权公司Archer Capital在长达一年对Brownes的销售 推向了高潮。 上海广泽在上海、长春、天津和吉林有4 家奶酪和牛奶加工厂，加工能力约为40 万吨。

在最近召开的澳大利亚经济发展委员会 会议上，Brownes公司首席执行官托尼· 杰尔吉斯说，上海广泽的供应链触及了中 国约90个城市，使该公司成为Brownes 推广新鲜牛奶、酸奶以及奶酪等产品的完 美合作伙伴。

杰尔吉斯先生说： “从一开始，上海广泽的 专业团队来实地考察，让我和管理团队感 觉如沐春风。”

“首先，因为他们长期沉浸在该专业领 域，而且非常成功。”

“其次，他们是家族式企业，我们本质上 也是作为家族式企业而建立的，所以双方 迅速适应彼此。我们觉得和这些人一起工 作是个好主意。” “最重要的是，他们说，你可以继续做你 所做的事，广泽不会从中干预。”

杰尔吉斯表示，Brownes已决定在2015 年进入中国市场。而就在两年前，与上海 广泽的交易最终达成。

“今天，若你想进入中国的牛奶或乳制品 市场，你必须要有自身的亮点，”杰尔吉 斯说。 （中国消费者）早已习惯了琳琅满目的产 品。他们不仅非常挑剔，而且异常老练。

Brownes在中国面临的最大难题，除了在 超市货架上与同类产品进行竞争以外，还 不得不面对供应链的挑战。 杰尔吉斯表示，与澳大利亚超市相 比，Brownes的产品在中国超市货架增加 了确保其健康的费用，其中大部分利润用 在提高产品的新鲜度和储存条件方面。 更令人感到压力重重的是，由澳大利亚 本土生产的产品，其成本往往高于竞争 对手。

“不仅仅是在西澳，可以说全澳的制造业 都举步维艰”杰尔吉斯说。 “我的职业生涯始于制造业，在相当长的 时间里，制造业一直在走下坡路。

“无论你所在哪个行业，你必须占有成 本、供应链或效率等优势，而澳大利亚现 在正处于全球市场竞争中尴尬的位置。” “或许我们在西澳的优势已不复存在 了，可我们仍有很多其他同样优秀的条 件。” 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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TOURISM | 旅游

The constraint is all about aviation, there is nothing else holding this destination back but aviation – Adam Barnard 唯一的限制来自于航班数量，除此之外没有任何因素能阻碍 游客来到这片胜地--亚当·巴纳德（Adam Barnard）

WA ripe for more tourists, if they can get here Aviation access is the only thing holding WA back from becoming a mecca for Chinese tourists, according to one of the state’s biggest tour operators.

Staff reporter ADAM Barnard has been preparing for the China tourist boom for the better part of a decade.

Mr Barnard, founder of Western Australia’s largest coach and bus tour operator, ADAMS, first travelled to China on business in 2008 and, since then, has been increasingly tuned into the growing opportunities emanating from the country’s ever-mobile middle class.

“I’ve been going there at least once a year since then,” Mr Barnard told Australia China Business Review.

“I’ve always had a fascination for China, I’ve had a fantastic time each time that I’ve been there, and I’ve watched it grow from being the only European person walking around the en18

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

tire city in some of the places I was going, to now being like Sydney or Melbourne.

“I knew the opportunities that were going to come from China just by observing it going as a guest on these tours and factory visits with suppliers and bus manufacturers.

“It was very simple to tell that China was going to change the world order.”

The latest data from the Chinese Academy of Social Science backs Mr Barnard’s view – with a record 4.5 billion domestic and overseas trips made by Chinese tourists in 2017.

And while most of the Chinese travellers that made it to Australian shores visited either Sydney or Melbourne, Mr Barnard said the changing behaviour of tourists to seek increasingly unique experiences gave WA the opportunity to become a go-to destination.

“They are all living very busy lives and the opportunity for natural beauty and natural experiences is well recognised as growing at an exponential rate,” Mr Barnard said.

“Western Australia, in my opinion, offers an extraordinary tourism product – blue skies, incredible beaches, wine, food, it is just an extraordinary state.

We know that we have an amazing product here, particularly for Chinese visitors.

“If you go to Sydney or Melbourne, you get a big-city experience.

“Now there are some beautiful places, there are some great places in Sydney and they do love those natural experiences, but here, our entire offering is extraordinary natural experiences, not just one or two places that the other cities have.

旅游

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VISION Adam Barnard identified WA’s Chinese tourism opportunity as long ago as 2008. Photo: Adams 未来憧憬 早在2008年，亚当·巴纳德认 为中国游客能给西澳大利亚州带来机 遇。图片来源：Adams

有朋自远方来，不亦乐乎

该州最大的旅游运营商之一声称，航空准入是阻碍西澳大利亚州成为中国游客 心中旅游圣地的唯一原因。

本刊记者

亚当·巴纳德花了近十年时间准备迎接即 将来临的中国旅游热潮

巴纳德先生是西澳最大的巴士观光营运 公司ADAMS的创始人。他在2018年第一 次去中国出差后意识到中国中产阶级能 带来越来越多的商业机遇。

“自那以后，我每年至少去一次”，巴纳德 先生对《澳中商讯》称。

“我对中国非常着迷，并且在中国度过的 时光都美妙。多年前，我可能是唯一一位 走在中国某些城市的欧洲人，如今，再次 游走在这些城市的道路上，会像是来到了 悉尼或者墨尔本这种国际大都市。 “之前仅仅作为游客和工厂观光客，我与 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

供应商和巴士制造商进行了观察，并且我 深知机遇将来自中国。

“显而易见的是，中国即将改变世界秩 序。”

中国社会科学院的最新数据佐证了巴纳 德先生的观点 - -2017年，中国游客创造 了45亿美元的国内外旅游消费记录。

尽管大多数前往澳大利亚海岸的中国游 客都游览过悉尼或者墨尔本，但巴纳德先 生表示，游客们不断改变的行为方式以及 日趋增长的寻求独特体验的需求，使得西 澳大利亚州有机会成为旅游胜地。

“中国人生活节奏很快，其实他们更愿意 同大自然亲密接触，感受自然风光，”巴纳 德先生说。

“在我看来，西澳大利亚能带给游客与众 不同的出行绝妙的游览体验：在湛蓝的天 空下，摄人心魄的美丽海滩前，尽情享受 珍馐美酒！澳大利亚真可谓世外桃源。 我们十分相信，这里的美景会令人陶醉其 中。中国游客们尤其会喜欢。

“你若是游览悉尼或墨尔本，便可领略一 番大城市的风采。

“当下在悉尼就有些还不错的漂亮景区， 人们倒也乐于去那儿体验自然；但要想领 略真正的自然景致，肯定是在我们这里， 独此一家。这绝不是去其他城市的一、两 个小景区能见得到的。 “我们想给游客带来前所未有的体验，与 此同时，我们也会将自己的劣势转化为优 势。” 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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TOURISM | 旅游 NEEDED Direct access to China’s most iconic cities would be a game-changer for WA tourism Photo: Shutterstock.com 需求 直接与中国主要城市的市场相连接， 这一策略将彻底改变西澳大利亚州旅游业 的格局。图片来源：Shutterstock.com

“We want to give them something else, and what has been our weakness will become our strength.”

At ADAMS, Mr Barnard said the company had developed a range of tours and experiences tailored for Chinese travellers, from Rottnest Island to Lancelin and the Pinnacles, to the majestic natural wonders of the Kimberley and also taking in the gourmet delights of the state’s South West.

“We have Chinese-speaking drivers, guides and staff, we have translated all our brochures into Chinese. We are ready, but we don’t have the numbers to justify it,” he said.

“It’s a bit of a chicken and the egg – we are way ahead of the curve, but we realise that we are constrained by the aviation situation.”

Mr Barnard said if the WA state government did not secure additional direct flights to the Chinese mainland, the state’s tourism opportunity could become a big tourism problem.

For many years the Achilles heel of WA’s tourism sector was hotel capacity, particularly through the heights of the mining investment boom of 2008 to 2013.

Hotel rooms were scarce and filled with travelling executives, leaving no room for leisure tourists to experience the state’s evolving hospitality offering or its natural wonders.

Today, WA is in the middle of the biggest tourism development boom in the state’s history, with billions being invested in new hotels across Perth.

Research from the Tourism Council of Western Australia showed the current construction cycle for Perth hotels recently passed its mid-point, with 2,019 hotel rooms created since 2012.

There are a further 1,877 rooms under construction, across eight properties.

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AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

“The amount of capacity that is being added to Perth is so extreme, that if something is not done soon by way of aviation access, then there is going to be some major problems in the hotel industry,” Mr Barnard said.

“Not only have they got this extra capacity, they’ve also got Airbnb, which has been growing at a rate of around 4 per cent a month.

“We may have around 10,000 extra rooms available now through Airbnb alone, so they have had a massive impact.

“There is opportunity from that, we now have the lowest room rates in the entire country and we have, without a shadow of a doubt, the best hotel stock in Australia.

“It is extraordinary, but it will be a complete failure if we don’t get the aviation access sorted.”

Mr Barnard said the fact that Perth only had one direct flight to the Chinese mainland that did not even run for a full seven days per week was the only thing holding the state back in attracting Chinese tourists.

He said one of the government’s top priorities needed to be securing a commitment from China Eastern to set up a permanent Perth to Shanghai route, following the announcement last year the airline would trial the flights starting from October.

“Sydney, for example, has got seven airlines flying in there and we have one that doesn’t even fly seven days,” he said.

“At the moment, a lot of the group inbound travel is coming through Singapore Airlines, there is a direct flight from Guangzhou, but we have found that travellers from Shanghai or Beijing are not willing to fly through Guangzhou to come here, they want to fly direct in.

“If you have a look at Adelaide, which has flights seven days a week, it’s just extraordinary that we don’t.

“This has been a result of the financial situation in WA, and a lack of action from the previous government.”

Mr Barnard said the Mark McGowan government, had been more committed to the industry than any of its predecessors, but nevertheless called for more support for the tourism sector, primarily in the form of an aviation development fund.

“The constraint is all about aviation, there is nothing else holding this destination back but aviation,” he said.

“What the government needs to do a better job of is making the taxpayer understand that tourism is one of the only things that the government spends money on that provides an economic return.

“If the government can help people understand that for every dollar they invest in tourism, it will generate an economic return of $28 for this state, just $20 million would change everything.

“If people understand the return, then people won’t criticise. There are better places to spend money than marketing, but people have to understand that’s what pays for the hospitals, and the roads and the schools.

“The Chinese visitors that come here are absolutely blown away by what we offer.

“When you look at the infrastructure that’s been built, Elizabeth Quay, Yagan Square, the revitalisation of the city, the food and beverage, the small bars, our city is a vibrant city with so much capacity now.

“The only thing we lack is more visitors to make it more vibrant.”

旅游

巴纳德先生表示，亚当斯公司已经特地 为中国游客开发了一系列的旅游体验产 品：从罗特内斯特岛到兰斯林小镇和尖峰 石阵，还有金伯利地区雄伟壮观的自然奇 观。除此之外，中国游客还可以品尝到该 州西南部的美食佳肴。

“我们有会讲中文的司机、导游和工作人 员。此外，我们还把所有的宣传手册翻译 成了中文。万事俱备，但我们却没有数据 来证明这一点， “他说。

“这有点像先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题。我 们虽然走在行业前端，但却意识到航空条 件制约着我们的发展。” 巴纳德先生表示，如果西澳政府没有增加 直飞中国大陆的航班，那么本地旅游业将 面临巨大问题。 多年来，酒店接待能力不足是西澳大利亚 旅游业发展的掣肘，尤其是该地区经历了 2008年至2013年的采矿业投资高峰后， 此问题更为突出。

酒店酒店房源供应不足并都用来接待企 业高管，没有更多房间招待这些想体验西 澳州风土人情和想领略自然奇观的游客。 如今，西澳地区正处于其历史上旅游业最 快发展的黄金时期，珀斯各地都在投资新 建酒店。

CLEAR SKIES Chinese groups have been impressed with WA’s nature-focused tours.

Photo: ADAMS 碧空如洗 西澳州亲近自然的主题旅游活动 给中国旅行团留下了深刻印象。图片来源： ADAMS WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

西澳大利亚旅游部门的调查显示，2012 年至今，珀斯新建酒店房间数超过中期目 标，达到2,019间。

目前尚有共计八所酒店的1,877间房仍在 建设当中。

“珀斯酒店的新增产能巨大，如果航空准 入问题不解决的话，酒店业将面临一些重 大问题。”巴纳多先生表示。 “珀斯不仅新建许多酒店，游客也可通过 爱迎彼网站进行预订，爱迎彼的订单量以 每月4%的速度增长。” “仅通过爱迎彼网站，就有约10,000个房 间可供住宿，这对住宿有巨大改观。” “我们拥有全澳最低的房价这为也能为 我们带来机遇。毫无疑问，我们也拥有最 棒的酒店储备。”

“这些条件都很优异，但如果没有解决航 空准入问题，那么所有的努力都将付之东 流。” 巴纳德先生表示，实际上从澳大利亚珀斯 往来中国大陆只有一趟直达航班，还不是 每天都飞。这显然是阻碍中国游客前往珀 斯的唯一因素。 他说，政府的首要任务之一是保证中国 东方航空开通珀斯到上海的航线，根据 去年的声明，该直达航线将于10月进行 试航。

“比如悉尼已经开通了七条航线，但西澳 只有一条航线，还不是每天飞，”他说。

“现在，许多组团入境游客会选择搭乘新 加坡航空来澳旅行。目前在广州就有一条 直达航线，不过我们发现上海、北京的旅 客其实不愿经广州转机，他们更期待可以 直飞。

| TOURISM

“你看与珀斯截然不同的阿德莱德，他们 每天都有航班。 “这与西澳大利亚的财务状况有关，也是 当前政府缺乏作为的后果。”

巴纳德先生说麦高文（Mark McGowan ）政府比所有前任州长更致力于产业发 展，然而政府现仍呼吁外界能主要通过 航空发展基金的形式，加大对旅游业的 投入。

他说， “航空就是所有的掣肘所在，除此之 外，再没有其他什么事情阻碍着旅游业的 发展。”

“而政府需要更好地开展工作，使纳税人 知晓，旅游业仅仅是政府投资以换取经济 回报的事情之一。”

如果政府能够促使人们明白在旅游业中 每投入一美元，都会带来28美元的经济收 入，只需要2000万美元就会产生翻天覆地 的变化。

“如果人们知道有回报，自然也不会有任 何抱怨。然而有比市场营销更好的地方花 钱，但人们必须明白，这是为医院、道路和 学校支付的费用。 如今，来到西澳大利亚的中国游客对这里 赞不绝口。 看看已经完建的基础设施，看看伊丽莎白 码头、雅冈广场，目睹城市的振兴，目睹 各式各样的食物和饮料、小酒吧，你会发 现，现在我们的城市如此生机盎然、包罗 万象。

“我们唯一的缺憾就是未能吸引更多地游 客使这座城市变得更加活力四射。” 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

21

RESOURCES | 能源 BIG PLAYER One of the world’s largest producers of ferronickel is South32’s Cerro Matoso, in northern Colombia.

Photo: South32 大玩家 位于哥伦比亚北部的South32 公司的Cerro Matoso矿区，是世界上 最大的镍铁生产基地之一，。图片来 源:South32

Old, new drivers underpin nickel’s star performance Andy Home Reuters NICKEL is turning out to be the star performer of the major industrial metals so far this year.

True, the London Metal Exchange (LME) price has retreated from April’s three-year high of $US16,690 a tonne as panic that US sanctions on Russia might be extended to Norilsk Nickel has dissipated.

But at a current $US14,650/tonne, LME three-month nickel is still up 16 per cent on the start of the year.

Tin, the second strongest performer among the LME base metals pack, is up by just 2 per cent.

In China, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) contract largely ignored London’s Russian jitters but has also just notched up its highest trading level in three years.

The London and Shanghai markets have been buoyed by a falling ‘visible’ inventory, which has reinforced a bullish view of the shortfall in supply.

22

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

LME stocks of nickel have fallen every month since August last year.

At 303,576 tonnes, they are down by 63,036 tonnes, or 17 per cent, on the start of 2018 and are now at their lowest level since June 2014.

Stocks registered with the ShFE closed in late May at 33,000 tonnes, their lowest level since October 2015, when the Shanghai contract was in its infancy.

Combined exchange stocks of 336,600 tonnes are now a long way off the highs above 500,000 tonnes seen during the first quarter of 2016.

This erosion of inventory reinforces the picture of a supply shortfall painted by the International Nickel Study Group (INSG).

The group forecast in April the world refined nickel market would register a shortfall of 117,000 tonnes this year.

It follows a similar-sized deficit in 2017 and marks a significant revision from the group’s previous assessment in October 2017 that the deficit this year would be around 53,000 tonnes.

Key to that rethink is an upgrade of expect-

ed global consumption growth from 5 per cent to 7 per cent this year.

A core driver of that strong demand growth is nickel’s traditional usage sector, stainless steel.

Global stainless steel production rose by 5.8 per cent to a record 48.1 million tonnes last year, according to the International Stainless Steel Forum (ISSF).

China is the world’s largest producer of stainless steel and the country’s output increased by almost 5 per cent last year.

But every other region experienced production growth as well, ranging from 1.3 per cent in Western Europe to 22 per cent in the ISSF’s “others” category, which comprises Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa and South Korea.

Stainless steel production, and therefore nickel consumption, is expected to rise again this year, albeit at a slightly less stellar pace.

However, if this were just a stainless steel story, the impact on nickel’s fortunes would be more muted.

Nickel production is also rising fast, partic-

能源

| RESOURCES

新旧因素助力期镍再掀狂潮 安迪·霍姆 路透社

今年迄今，镍已经成为主要工业金属中的 明星产品。

当然，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期 镍价格已经从4月触及的三年高位每吨 16,690美元回落，因为市场对于美国制裁 俄罗斯的措施可能波及诺里尔斯克镍业 的恐慌已经消散。

然而，即便以当前每吨14,650美元的价位 计算，LME三个月期镍今年以来仍上涨 16%。LME表现第二优异的期锡涨幅仅 为2%。 在中国，上海期货交易所期镍合约基本忽 略了伦敦市场关于俄罗斯制裁因素的担 忧，但也刚刚创下了三年来最高价位。 伦敦与上海市场都受到有形镍库存下降 的影响。有形库存减少，强化了供应短缺 的多头题材。

WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

库存下降，供应缺口扩大

导致短缺规模修正的一个关键原因是，今年 全球镍消费增幅预估被从5%上调到7%。

库存目前报303,576吨，较2018年初水平 减少63,036吨或17%，为2014年6月以来 最低位。

旧的驱动因素

LME镍库存自2017年8月以来每个月都 在下降。

上海期交所库存上周接近33,000吨，为 2015年10月以来的最低位，而当时的上 交所刚推出镍合约不久。

目前，伦敦和上海两地期交所的库存总计 达到336,600吨，与2016年第一季触及的 500,000吨以上高位相去甚远。

显性库存的这种下降，加剧了国际镍业研 究组织(INSG)所描绘出的供应短缺情况。 INSG在4月时预估，全球精炼镍今年料 出现117,000吨的供应缺口。这几乎等同 于2017年的供应缺口规模，也明显超出 INSG在去年10月做出的预估，当时预计 今年缺口仅为53,000吨左右。

驱动镍需求强劲增长的核心因素之一是 镍的传统应用领域：不锈钢。

据国际不锈钢论坛(ISSF)，去年全球不锈 钢产量增长5.8%至创纪录的4,810万吨。 中国是全球最大的不锈钢生产国，去年产 量增长近5%。但其他所有地区的产量也 都实现增长，西欧增幅较低，为1.3%，而 ISSF的”其他”类别(包括俄罗斯、巴西、印 尼、南非和韩国)则增长22%。 预计今年不锈钢产量和镍消费量将再次 上升，尽管增速可能略微逊色。

然而，如果只有不锈钢一个影响因素，那 么这对镍市的影响将会比较温和。 镍产量也在快速增长，特别是印尼，该国

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

23

RESOURCES | 能源 INTEGRATED BHP’s global nickel mining and processing operations are concentrated at Nickel West, near Kalgoorlie in WA. Photo: BHP 资源整合 必和必拓的全球镍矿开采及加 工业务主要集中在西澳大利亚州的Nickel West矿区，其位于卡尔古利市附近。图片来 源:必和必拓

Nickel’s traditional price driver, the stainless sector, is the foundation on which the current price strength rests but the extra spice is coming from the battery sector 作为镍价传统驱动因素，不锈钢行业是当前镍价上涨的基 础，但电池行业带来了额外的提振

ularly in Indonesia, the core supplier of nickel ore to China’s nickel pig iron (NPI) sector, which is itself increasingly integrated with the country’s stainless steel producers.

The part reversal of a 2014 ban on the export of unprocessed nickel ore has reinvigorated production in Indonesia.

The country’s mined production jumped by 74 per cent to 345,000 tonnes in 2017 and maintained that rate of growth in the first two months of this year, according to the INSG. China’s imports of Indonesian nickel ore accelerated to 3.3 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2018 from just 300,000 tonnes in the same period of 2017.

The resumption of this raw material flow is expected to cause a rebound in China’s own nickel pig iron output as well as underpin continued growth in its offshore NPI capacity, now located in Indonesia.

If this were just a stainless steel story, in other words, the supply gap would be narrowing over the course of this year, as originally expected by the INSG in its October 2017 assessment.

However, the nickel price is no longer just 24

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

a function of being an input into the stainless steel production process.

Nickel is an increasingly split market, one part oriented towards stainless and the other towards use in the super-alloys and battery sectors.

Indeed, nickel-containing batteries got their first specific mention in the INSG April forecast for having “a positive effect on nickel usage”, a trend that “is expected to continue”.

None of the current Indonesian production surge is going anywhere near a lithium battery. Neither nickel ore nor nickel pig iron is suitable for conversion into the form of the metal, sulfate, that is used for batteries.

Battery makers need refined metal, or what the nickel industry terms “class 1” material.

Precisely the sort of nickel that qualifies for good delivery on the LME and the Shanghai exchanges and precisely the sort of nickel that is now leaving those exchanges.

Not that the battery sector is by itself causing the run on inventories.

There are other factors in the mix, not least the decision by the world’s largest nickel producer, Brazil’s Vale, to slow capacity in

response to what were until very recently super-low prices.

But there is a sense the battery supply chain may be starting to stock up on what is already a key metallic input and one that is expected to gain in importance as battery makers use more nickel and less cobalt in their configurations.

Moreover, the battery story has charged investor enthusiasm ever since it burst on to the nickel scene during LME Week in October last year.

LME broker Marex Spectron estimates speculators have taken a longer-term view of upside on nickel prices.

Nickel’s traditional price driver, the stainless sector, is the foundation on which the current price strength rests but the extra spice is coming from the battery sector.

There remains an underlying tension between booming production of nickel for usage by stainless steel mills and lagging output of class 1 nickel that could be used by battery makers.

But for now, old and new drivers are both pushing nickel in the same direction.

能源

是中国镍生铁(NPI)行业的核心镍矿供应 国。该行业本身日益与中国的不锈钢生产 商整合在一起。

镍市场正在逐渐一分为二，一部分面向不 锈钢，另一部分面向超合金和电池行业。

INSG数据显示，印尼2017年镍矿产量跳 增74%至345,000吨，并在今年1-2月保持 了这种增速。

目前印尼产量的飙升远远不会影响到锂 电池行业。不论镍矿石还是含镍生铁都不 适合转化为用于制造电池的硫酸镍。

2014年印尼禁止出口未经加工的镍矿，该 禁令后来已部分撤销，重振了印尼的生产。

增产的影响在中国贸易数据中得到体 现，2018年第一季中国自印尼进口的镍矿 石提升到330万吨，2017年同期只有区区 30万吨。 镍矿恢复流入，料引发中国自身NPI产量 反弹，还将支持海外位于印尼的NPI产能 持续增长。

如果只是不锈钢题材在起作用，那么换句 话说，供应缺口今年将随着时间推移而 收窄，一如INSG起初在2017年10月评估 中所料。 新的驱动因素

然而，影响镍价的不再单纯是不锈钢生 产了。 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

事实上，INSG在4月预估中首次明确提到 了”含镍电池”，称其”对镍的使用有正面 影响”，并预计这种趋势”将持续下去”。

| RESOURCES

自从去年10月的LME Week上电池主题 进入镍市场以来，投资者的热情就不断 升温。

据LME经纪商Marex Spectron估计，投 机客目前的镍净多仓占未平仓合约的9% ，在基本金属中投机客多仓比例最高。

电池生产商需要的是精炼镍，用行业术语 叫做”一级”镍。

作为镍价传统驱动因素，不锈钢行业是当 前镍价上涨的基础，但电池行业带来了额 外的提振，尽管在一定程度上已通过供应 链囤货和投资兴趣等因素提前反应了这 种提振作用。

并不是说电池行业本身造成了有形库存 的流失。

但就目前而言，新旧因素正合力推动镍价 上行。

恰恰就是这类镍，满足LME和上期所的 交货条件，而目前正在从这些交易所当中 流失。 这其中还有其他原因，尤其是全球最大镍 生产商巴西淡水河谷(VALE3.SA)决定停 产，因为镍价一直到最近都处于超低水平。

但目前存在一种潜在紧张关系：用于生产 不锈钢厂的镍产量大增，而可用于电池生 产的一级镍生产滞后。

但亦有人觉得，随着电池厂商在生产中越 来越多使用镍而减少使用钴，电池供应链 或将开始囤积那些本已是重要金属原料 且预计会越来越重要的金属。

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

25

TECHNOLOGY | 科技

Alibaba moves to transform Australian fintech Staff reporter ALIBABA Group’s innovative facial recognition, artificial intelligence and data analytics technology is coming to Australia’s financial services sector, under a partnership with local technology group TAS. The landmark deal between TAS and Alibaba’s cloud computing arm, Alibaba Cloud, will have an initial two-year term, and will provide Australian businesses with the opportunity to access cutting edge cloud computing and data centre services.

TAS and Alibaba will also develop a joint innovation centre in Australia under the deal, to develop and tailor new technologies and services for the Australian market.

TAS has been providing technology solutions in Australia’s financial sector for nearly three decades, servicing about 60 institutions with cloud solutions for internet and mobile banking, internal systems as well as connection to third parties and ATMs. Alibaba Cloud ASEAN and Australia-New 26

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

Zealand general manager Raymond Ma said the tie-up with TAS would support the digital transformation of Australian financial services.

Mr Ma said since Alibaba Cloud had established an Australian data centre in 2016, the company had been scouring the market for the right local partner to help roll out its technology.

“It is not only Alibaba Cloud, but Alibaba Group has an ecosystem here, and we are trying to build up that ecosystem as well,” Mr Ma told Australia China Business Review.

“At that time, Alibaba Cloud was looking for a partner to work with us, we were looking at consultants, and we were looking for a partner to build up that kind of ecosystem.

“This market is a very mature cloud market and very open and very eager for digital transformation, especially for the financial sector – Australia’s financial sector has a huge potential to adopt new technology like facial recognition and big data support

“Our partner can help us lend our experience of best practice in the financial sector in China to this market.”

Mr Ma said early discussions with TAS unearthed a desire from its customers to upgrade their cloud technology, particularly in the fields of cloud security, big data analysis and how to use AI to support digital transformation and innovation in the financial sector.

“Fortunately, we have this kind of practice because we have supported Alipay in China for the last few years and we have a lot of experience from that,” Mr Ma said.

“That’s the reason why we have come together; one side has very good demand, a very good reputation and a lot of customers here.

“On the other side, we have the experience, we have the technology and we are willing to work together with partners.”

TAS chief executive Shane Baker said while accessing Alibaba’s cloud computing infrastructure was a compelling proposition, it was the technology giant’s experience in financial services, particularly through its pay-

科技

| TECHNOLOGY

GLOBAL Alibaba Group is employing an international approach to building its financial services network. Photo: Shutterstock.com 震撼寰宇阿里巴巴集团正采用国际化 的方式建立其金融服务网络。图片来 源：Shutterstock.com

阿里巴巴有意改变澳 大利亚金融科技

本刊记者

阿里巴巴集团创新的面部识别、人工智 能和数据分析技术正在与当地科技集团 TAS合作，进入澳大利亚金融服务行业指 日可待。

TAS与阿里巴巴云计算部门阿里云的协 议具有里程碑意义，初期合作时长为2年， 这也将使澳大利亚企业有机会访问尖端 云计算、享用数据中心服务。 根据协议，TAS和阿里巴巴也将在澳大利 亚创办联合创新中心，还会为澳大利亚市 场开发并调整新技术和新服务。

近三十年来，TAS一直对澳大利亚的金融 领域提供技术帮助，使用云计算解决方案 服务了近60家机构，帮助互联网和手机银 行、内部系统以及连接第三方和自动取款 机的通信线路。 阿里巴巴云计算东盟、澳大利亚和新西兰 总经理马镇金说，和TAS的合作将有利于 澳大利亚金融服务的数字传输。 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

马先生还说，因为阿里巴巴云计算已经于 2016年创办了澳大利亚数据中心，所以该 公司一直致力于使用原创技术，为当地的 合作伙伴开拓市场。 马云在接受《澳中商讯》采访时表示： “不 仅是阿里云，整个阿里集团在这里都有一 整个生态体系，并且我们也正在尝试加强 这种生态体系。”

“当时，阿里云在寻找合作伙伴，我们也 在寻求技术顾问，同时我们双方希望建 立合作伙伴关系去加强这种企业生态体 系。”

“这个市场是一个非常成熟的云市场，相 当开放，极其渴望数字转型，尤其是对金 融行业——澳大利亚的金融行业在采用 新技术方面有着巨大潜力，比如面部识别 和大数据支持技术。 “我们的合作伙伴有助于我们把中国金 融业的最佳实践经验传递给该市场。”

马云称，先前关于辅助技术的讨论激发了 客户对于升级云技术的渴望。特别是在云

安全、大数据分析和在金融业中应用人工 智能实现数字转换及创新等领域。

“幸好，过去几年对中国支付宝的开发使 我们有这方面的实践，并从中获得了大量 经验，”马云说。 “今天，大家汇聚于此，一方面，这里的 广阔市场需要这里需要我们家喻户晓的 服务。

“另一方面，我们不仅拥有丰富的经验和 完善的技术，也非常愿意同伙伴携手并 进。”

TAS 首席执行官谢恩·贝克(Shane Baker)表示，不仅阿里巴巴的云技术基础 设施确实引人注目，而且这家科技巨头在 金融服务方面的经验，尤其是支付平台支 付宝，也深深吸引了他的公司。

贝克在接受《澳中商讯》采访时表示： “我 们不愿意和只能提供基础设施的人合作， 因为尽管这部分也很重要，但是这种合作 太基础了，并不能满足我们的需求。”

“这关系到我们如何推进这个行业，而像 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

27

TECHNOLOGY | 科技 DISRUPTORS Shane Baker (left) and Raymond Ma expect the partnership to shake up Australian fintech. Photo: TAS 脱颖而出 谢恩·贝克（Shane Baker） （左）和 雷蒙德·马（Raymond Ma）期待这一合作 伙伴关系能改变澳大利亚的金融科技。图 片：TAS

ment platform Alipay, that had most attracted his company.

“We didn’t want to partner with someone that could provide infrastructure only, because while that’s important, it’s pretty basic and it’s very standard to our business,” Mr Baker told Australia China Business Review.

“This is about how we advance the industry, and things like facial recognition and voice recognition are certainly seen to be the future in that we will be communicating with technology in that fashion.

“So those technologies were one of the biggest considerations in terms of selecting a partner.

“The other thing about Alibaba for us is their regional focus.

“They have a desire and intent to be the largest in the Asia-Pacific region, which is perfect for us. The Asian corridor is where we see the most opportunity for growth outside of Australia and into Australia.”

Mr Baker said the major benefit of the partnership would not only provide value for both companies, but also be the target market of Australian banks and insurance providers.

He said applying Alibaba’s technology to the cloud computing sector would give institutions the opportunity to streamline pro-

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AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

cesses and reduce costs, while also allowing for better customer engagement.

“The insurance industry in particular realises that it’s at a tipping point where there is a lot changing in their world,” Mr Baker said.

“The way that cars are becoming more autonomous and certainly will be autonomous over time, weather patterns and all sorts of things are eating into premiums and therefore profits, so they have got to think about things differently.

“They have got to become leaner and using smarter technology is a way to do that.”

Mr Baker said he expected the financial services sector to embrace Alibaba’s entry to the market, particularly its commitment to collaboration.

He said Alibaba’s investment in the development of new technology through universities and other research institutions had been “remarkable”.

The company had also been a big contributor to the rapid modernisation of China’s financial sector over the past two decades.

“When you go back and research China, one of the arguments is that financial services jumped a whole era, if you like, in a progression that the western world went through in core systems and digitisation,” Mr Baker said.

“As a result of the way that they have advanced, it’s really advanced technology.

“The other thing with China that the world recognises is that technology advancements, focusing on development of technologies and patenting IP is what China does and does very well, and it’s what China has been doing for a number of years now.

“This is where our clients are getting really excited, talking about an organisation like Alibaba that has those advanced technologies, understands financial services themselves.

“We are getting a lot of interest from those organisations saying ‘we want to be a part of that. We want to look at how we resolve some of those issues and capitalise on these opportunities with an organisation that gets it, but also is prepared to do it in a collaborative fashion.’

“But it’s not just about the technology, it’s about how the technology gets applied to industries to add value.

“The way that they are considering the changing environment both in China and globally and how the technology can apply to solutions to those challenges and opportunities is quite unique.

“That’s the thing that excites us, because we can bring solutions to a market rather than just a product.”

科技

| TECHNOLOGY

Development of technologies and patenting IP is what China does and does very well – Shane Baker

中国做的是科技发展和知识产权的专利化，而且做得非常 之好 - 谢恩贝克（Shane Baker）

面部识别和声音识别之类的技术必然是 未来人类交流的大方向。

“所以，上述技术是我们在选择合伙人的 首要考虑条件之一。” “其次，我们考虑的是阿里巴巴的区域性 目标。”

“他们强烈渴望成为亚太地区最大规模 的企业，这与我们一拍即合。” “我们认 为，亚洲走廊是为澳大利亚经济增长提供 最多机会的地方。” 贝克先生说，这段合作关系不仅为双方企 业带来了利润，还为澳大利亚银行以及保 险供应商带来了全新市场。 他说，将阿里巴巴的技术运用到云计算部 门将为社会机构简化流程并降低成本，同 时也能实现更好的客户互动。

“保险行业正处于一个即将翻天覆地变 化的转折点，”贝克先生说。 “无论经营模式和其他各种因素是否有

WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

损保费和利润，汽车都朝着自动化发展， 且会一直发展下去，因此是时候改变思考 方式了。

“一种办法是，精简机构并利用更加智能 的技术。”

贝克先生说他期盼着澳洲金融服务行业 张开怀抱欢迎阿里巴巴的加入，尤其是在 阿里巴巴承诺合作之后。 阿里巴巴通过对大学和其他科研机构进 行投资来发展新技术，贝克先生称之“成 就斐然”。

在过去二十年，阿里巴巴是为中国财政部 门飞速现代化作出重大贡献的企业。

“当你回顾并研究中国时，一种观点认为 中国的金融服务跨越了一整个时代，而 这个时代正是西方国家核心系统和数字 化经济发展向往的时代，”贝克尔先生如 是说。

“公司发展的红利之一便是科技的进步。

“全世界也意识到，中国近几年一直致力 于技术和专利知识产权的发展，并且取得 了傲人的成绩。 “当谈到和阿里巴巴类似的企业时，我们 的客户往往会很兴奋，因为这些企业拥 有先进的高端技术和优秀的金融服务理 念。”

“我们对这样的企业充满了兴趣并表示‘ 我们想成为其中的一员。我们期望着解决 其中涉及的问题，同时准确抓住机会做好 与之合作的准备。 ”但这不仅仅是技术问题，它还包括如何 将技术应用于行业来获取附加值。 “

”他们所考虑是瞬息万变的中国和全球金 融环境，以及如何利用技术去解决所要面 对的机遇和挑战，这种战略眼光绝对是高 瞻远瞩的。

“这便是我们如此激动的原因：我们能够 为一整个行业带来生机，而并不仅仅局限 于单一产品。”

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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RESOURCES | 能源

中国期货市场变革—— 铁矿石将紧随原油步伐

Iron ore tipped to follow crude oil on China futures markets move Clyde Russell Reuters IN the relatively short space of the past decade, iron ore futures and commodities markets have grown from virtually nothing to exceed the physical market, but now the industry is grappling with what comes next.

While the growth in iron ore futures and exchanged-cleared swaps has been impressive, iron ore is still a long way behind other commodity markets, such as crude oil and some agricultural products, where ‘paper’ trade exceeds physical by large multiples.

There are two main paper markets for iron ore, the well-established Singapore Exchange futures and swaps, and the Dalian Commodity Exchange, which up until now has largely catered for Chinese domestic investors.

The SGX is viewed largely as the professional market, used by miners, traders, finance houses and steel mills to hedge risk and to some extent discover prices.

However, the main SGX contract is financially settled against an index, in this case provided by the Steel Index, one of the established players in the market.

The absence of a physically delivered future may be viewed as a weakness of the SGX, not30

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

withstanding the general respect the market has for the validity of the index price.

The DCE contract can be taken to physical delivery, but hardly ever is, with the bulk of the volume being day traders or short-term players, aiming to move in and out quickly to take advantage of news-driven, short-term price fluctuations.

Despite their different characteristics, the SGX and DCE contracts do track each other relatively closely, although the DCE is probably more prone to sharper movements as its participants respond more readily to news events, especially those reported in Chinese media.

The current situation is largely one where there are two separate markets serving two distinct types of participants.

But the landscape for paper iron ore appears to be reaching something of an inflection point, where the dynamics are changing and the ultimate outcome is somewhat uncertain.

One of themes at the SGX Iron Ore Week event in Singapore in late May was that the market needed to become more diverse and more sophisticated in order to grow.

Volumes on the SGX contract are flat for the year so far, a change from the previous trend of solid year-on-year growth.

This is likely because the price of iron ore

has been in a relatively narrow range between $US60 and $US80 a tonne for the past year, meaning producers and buyers have not felt the need to hedge as much as they would if prices were more volatile.

But it’s also likely SGX is close to the limits of growth in the current model, and the market needs to take the next steps on the road to ‘financialisation’.

These may include launching more products, especially a contract on higher-grade iron ore.

The current benchmark contract is for iron ore with a 62 per cent iron content, but the increasing use of 65 per cent ore by Chinese steel mills means there is potential for such a contract to gain traction.

At the other end of the quality scale, the SGX’s 58 per cent contract hasn’t worked because of a lack of liquidity.

But if there was a full suite of contracts for the various iron ore grades, it too may find volumes coming as participants see arbitrage opportunities.

The other main development is the internationalisation of the DCE, with changes earlier this month allowing non-Chinese players to participate without having to establish a Chinese-domiciled company.

能源

| RESOURCES

IN FLUX Structural changes are sweeping the iron ore market. Photo: BHP 瞬息万变 铁矿石市场将迎来翻天覆地 的变化。图片来源：必和必拓

This could well drive volumes on both the DCE and the SGX as participants play arbitrage opportunities, and also allow miners an outlet for physical delivery through the DCE if the pricing is favourable.

The main game is to bring more players into the market, such as hedge funds and high-frequency traders.

Access to DCE contracts may well be the key, and this in turn could result in changes in the way the SGX products are traded as well.

In some ways, the SGX participants are still something of an insiders’ club, with trade dominated by brokers, who build business on the basis on establishing relationships with miners, steel mills, shippers and traders.

克莱德·拉塞尔 路透社

在过去的十年中，铁矿石期货和大宗商品 市场从无到有再到超越现货市场。但是目 前整个行业都在为接下来发生的事情做 准备。 虽然铁矿石期货和对换清算掉期的增长 令人印象深刻，但铁矿石仍远远落后于如 原油和农产品等其他商品市场，其交易额 也数倍于铁矿石。 目前铁矿石有两个主要的交易平台，新加 坡交易所和大连商品交易所，迄今为止主 要是为中国投资者提供服务。 新交所被视为专业市场，用于矿商、贸易 商、金融机构和钢厂来对冲风险，并在一 定程度上提供价格发现。

但是，新交所的最终结算价生成方式是根 据权威指数进行的，在这种情况下，钢铁 指数则成为了不二之选。 尽管普遍对该指数的有效性表示肯定，但 没有现货实物交割方式可能会被视为新 交所的弱势之一。

大连商品交易所可以实现现金交割（股指 期货），但困难重重，因为大部分都是即日 交易或短线交易，这类型参与者的目标是 快速进出，利用短期价格波动来实现及时 平仓。 尽管新交所和大商所采用不同的交割方 式，但它们之间的存在千丝万缕的联系。 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

The main game is to bring more players into the market, such as hedge funds and highfrequency traders

这盘棋是为了吸引更多 参与者进入市场，尤其 是对冲基金和境外高频 做市商。

There is nothing inherently wrong with this model, but it likely places a cap on just how much the paper market can grow relative to the physical market.

It also probably acts as deterrent to attracting new participants, given they are likely to be cautious of being burned in what they see as an insiders’ market.

If the iron ore market does follow the path pioneered by crude oil, the brokers will eventually lose sway and be overwhelmed by the volumes being generated by new participants.

The opening up of the Chinese market to all investors may well be the spark needed to drive iron ore’s financialisation to the next level.

不过大连交易所可能更容易出现更为激 烈的走势，因为其参与者会根据新商品而 快速做出反应，尤其是当中国媒体报道相 关商品之后。

但是，如果能推出各种等级铁精粉的整套 合约，让参与者发现有套利机会，成交量 也可能会再次上涨。

但是，铁矿石期货似乎正处于转折点，这 个阶段瞬息万变，最终结果也有待观察。

这可能会极大鼓舞大商所和新交所的交 易量，因为参与者可以利用套利机会，而 且如果定价有利，矿商还可以通过大商所 进行实物交割

就当前现状而言，两个不同的市场分别服 务于两种截然不同的参与者。 5月下旬在新加坡举行的“新交所铁矿石 周”的活动主题之一——市场需要变得更 加多元化和差异化才能持续成长。

截至目前为止，新交所的业务交易量与上 年同月相比持平，同期曲线有所变化。 这可能是因为过去一年中铁矿石价格一 直处于每吨60美元至80美元之间的相对 狭窄范围内。这会让生产商和买家觉得， 如果在价格稳定的情况下，根本没有对冲 的必要。 但新交所也有可能达到目前模式下增长 的极限，市场需要向“金融化”迈出下一 步。

有可能会推出更多的商品，尤其是更高品 位的铁矿石合约。

目前的基准合约为含铁62%铁精粉期货 合约，但中国钢铁对含铁65％的铁精粉使 用量增加，意味着这种合约有可能越来越 受欢迎。 然而，由于新交所缺乏流动性，其含铁58 ％铁精粉合约未能顺利推出。

另一则消息是大商所正迈出国际化步伐， 本月初，允许境外投资无须开设中国本地 公司，可直接参与交易。

这盘棋是为了吸引更多参与者进入市场， 尤其是对冲基金和境外高频做市商。 能顺利签订与大商所的合约非常关键，当 然这也极有可能改变新交所的产品交易 方式。 从某种意义上讲，新交所仍像受控于场内 经纪人的会员制俱乐部，主营范围还是建 立在与矿商、钢铁厂、运输业以及贸易商 的基础上。

这种模式并没有本质上的错误，但它可能 会限制期货市场对现货市场的联动效应。 当新参与者看到这种不对外开放的“俱乐 部”模式时，很有可能会望而怯步。 如果铁矿石市场紧随原油市场的步伐，那 这些场内经纪人迟早会失去控场能力，并 被大量新鲜血液所吞没。 中国市场允许境外投资者直接参与交易 的政策，极有可能是铁矿石金融化迈上新 台阶的绝佳助力。 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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TECHNOLOGY | 科技

科技行业助力西澳登上全球舞台

Tech growth helps push WA to global stage Rapid expansion in Perth startups has the city poised to become a regionally significant technology centre.

Charlie Gunningham AS the mining construction boom came off from 2012 to 2017, other sectors grew a collective 62 per cent, says a report from Y Research commissioned by the City of Perth.

A study published last year (Shared Work Spaces and Technology Study) prepared by independent property research company Y Research has shown some distinct employment trends within the Perth CBD over the past five years.

Towards the end of 2012 two seemingly unrelated (but ultimately linked) events took place.

Local iron ore producer Fortescue Metals Group (itself a startup just 10 years earlier) laid off 2,000 workers.

Meanwhile, across town, the first Startup Weekend took place at the new co-working space that called itself Spacecubed (now Riff).

The Fortescue announcement was the first of many such calls from across the local resources industry, marking the end of the incredible mining construction boom that had held sway for almost a decade.

The mining industry had trebled in size during that time, as had local property prices, and it is unlikely any of us will see either phenomenon again.

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AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

Just as people would be piling out of the mining sector (5,000 fewer city workers would be employed within the industry over the next five years), the startup scene and ecosystem was just being born.

Redundancy cheques can provide the means to set up that idea you have always been looking to do, and it can give you the impetus and opportunity also.

An additional 3,000 people would depart the oil and gas industry in Perth during that timeframe as well, and some of them would also look to retrain or start their own business, or depart these shores for greener pastures.

“At the peak of the boom, 70 per cent of occupied space in the Perth CBD was by resources companies, firms servicing the resources industry and the government,” the report said.

Office vacancies during the peak of the boom in 2008 were driven to a world low in Perth, at under 0.5 per cent.

As the boom ended, those same workers departed, new office developments were coming on stream (at precisely the wrong time) and vacancies were driven up to more than 25 per cent, levels not seen since the 1960s.

The WA economy needed a transition, and one of the bright spots was tech companies and shared office (and co-working) spaces.

The report found there was a total of 24

shared office work facilities in the city, collectively occupying 22,400-plus square metres.

There were 38 new tech companies working out of these spaces, employing 803 staff.

The tech sector growth was the largest of any sector in Perth. It is now the eighth largest employer in town.

A more recent report, also produced by Y Research, has shown the tech sector has added more jobs than any other sector, apart from legal services.

“From my Perth CBD Office Tenant Census, the report developed by going floor by floor through every office building in the CBD, the technology sector in the CBD has grown by 42.5 per cent between 2012 and 2017 – delivering approximately 901 new jobs,” Y Research principal Damian Stone told Startup News.

“Education, shared work spaces, medical and PR/marketing are the other key sectors,” Mr Stone said.

“Collectively, these industries have grown by 62 per cent since the boom.”

Perhaps Perth will become the tech centre (in this time zone) many of us believe is within its grasp.

Perhaps we will diversify our local economy and cease being a ‘one-trick pony’.

Let’s hope these statistics are proof this is already happening.

科技

| TECHNOLOGY

Perhaps Perth will become the tech centre (in this time zone) many of us believe is within its grasp 很多人都相信珀斯或将会成为区域科技中心

查理·康宁翰 : Charlie Gunningham 初创新闻 : Startup News

EVOLVING Perth’s startup scene has invigorated the city as other industry sectors came off the boil. Photo: Shutterstock.com 随着其他行业的发展，珀斯的创业环 境给这座城市带来了活力。照片来 源：Shutterstock.com

珀斯创业公司的快速扩张，使这座城市有望成为一 个显著的区域技术中心。 查理·康宁翰

珀斯市政府委托Y Research机构进行的 一份研究报告显示，随着2012年至2017 年矿业建设热潮的兴起，其他行业也随之 增长了62%。

去年发表的一项研究（Shared Work Spaces and Technology Study）由独 立地产研究机构Y Research发布，在过 去的五年中，在珀斯CBD范围就业趋势有 显著变化。

在2012年底，发生了两件看似无关实则不 然的事件。 当地铁矿石生产商Fortescue Metals Group（仅在10年前成立了的一家初创公 司）一夜之间裁掉了2,000名员工。 与此同时，科技类公司Startup Weekend在全城开启了新型共享办公 空间，它被命名为Spacecubed（现名为 Riff）。

FMG（Fortescue Metals Group）是当 地能源行业中第一个发出此类声明的企 业，也标志着长达十年的矿业热潮戛然 而止。

回首那十年，矿业规模扩大了两倍，当地 的房产价格也与之成正比，或许我们再没 机会看到这两种情况了。 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

就像当时人们蜂拥而入矿业行业一样（在 矿业不景气的未来5年中，城区工作者将 增加5,000人），创业大潮才刚刚开始。

“下岗”补助金可以帮助你追求长期以 来的梦想，它也会为你带来动力和创造 机遇。

在此期间，约3,000人将离开珀斯的石油 天然气行业，其中一些人将重回学校进 修、独立创业或离开家乡去寻找诗和远 方。

报告称： “在繁荣时期，珀斯CBD中有70% 的写字楼被能源公司、能源咨询公司和政 府部门所占用。” 2008年珀斯经济顶峰时期的写字楼不到 0.5%的空置率也打破了记录。

随着繁荣盛世的结束，一些工人离开了， 然而新写字楼开发项目却开始了（在错误 的时间段），空置率一度超过25%，这也刷 新了自20世纪60年代以来的最高记录。 西澳经济需要转型，其中一个亮点是科技 公司和办公空间共享（以及联合办公）。

该报告显示，珀斯市共设有24处共享办公 室，共计面积22,400余平方米。

有38家新科技公司在这些区域内办公，雇 佣员工803名。

在珀斯各行各业中，科技行业的增幅最大 增长势头最猛。在员工数量排名中，其高 居第八位。

另一份由Y Research发布的报告显示， 除法律服务行业之外，科技行业提供的就 业岗位比其它任何行业都多。

“我有一份珀斯CBD写字楼租户普查报 告,这份报告是我们对CBD所有写字楼每 层每户详细调查之后完成的。报告显示， 从2012年至2017年五年间，CBD中的科 技类公司数量惊人地增长了42.5%，提供 了901份新工作岗位。”Y Research的主 要负责人达米安·斯通（Damian Stone） 告诉《Startup News》。 “教育、共享空间、医疗、公关及市场营销 等行业是其它发展重点，”斯通表示。 “自经济繁荣以来，这些行业总体上上涨 了62%。” 很多人都相信珀斯将会成为区域科技中 心。

或许当我们将使当地经济多样化之时，便 不会再出现“一锤子买卖”。 让我们拭目以待，这些数据统计也在见证 着经济变更。 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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OPINION | 观点 Captain Walter P Purio CEO of LNG Marine Fuel Institute Walter P. Purio船长–液化天然气 船用燃料机构(LNG Marine Fuel Institute) CEO

WALTER PURIO

Are shipping emissions adding to weather events in China?

IN the 1960s, Massachusetts Institute of Technology mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz constructed a model of the weather that showed how a butterfly flapping its wings in South America could potentially affect weather in New York’s Central Park.

Is it so outlandish, then, in line with his ‘chaos theory’, to think a ship in the Indian Ocean could affect the weather in China?

If, as it is widely assumed, higher pollution levels are linked to more severe weather patterns, it stands to reason the higher the emissions, the more extreme the weather.

This theory was backed by a recent study led by Pennsylvania State University professor of atmospheric science, Michael Mann.

The study examined historical atmospheric observations to identify conditions that correlated with extreme weather patterns.

“We came as close as one can to demonstrating a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events,” Professor Mann said.

Consider the situation in mainland China, the world’s leading source of air pollution: • Heavy snow hitting Shanghai for the first time in decades.

• Torrential rain and flooding.

• Gale-force winds.

And that’s just in the past few months.

China knows it has a pollution problem and has set stringent guidelines, such as barring the opening of new coal plants and requiring existing plants to cut emissions, restricting the number of cars in major urban areas, and even removing coal boilers from homes.

But while China reports some improvement 34

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in air quality, there’s only so much the country can do to rein in the weather, as well as the causes of that weather.

A significant source of pollution is outside the country’s direct control. There’s evidence that extreme weather is linked to pollution generated from the shipping industry.

A paper published in the scientific journal, Geophysical Research Letters, suggests areas marked by popular shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea experience twice as many lightning strikes than other areas of the water.

Here’s how it happens: Ships burning marine diesel emit exhaust high in sulphur dioxide, which results in the formation of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. These aerosols act as nuclei around which water vapour condenses, creating clouds.

Typically, marine clouds comprise larger droplets and do not reach higher altitudes.

However, these aerosol-formed clouds consist of smaller particles, which are more easily carried upwards by convection, resulting in the increase in lightning.

So how does this relate to weather in China?

Researchers such as atmospheric scientist Daniel Rosenfeld, of Israel’s Hebrew University, believe these ship-generated aerosols can impact on weather systems in a number of ways, such as transferring precipitation (and pollution) from one area to another, potentially thousands of kilometres away.

In other words, ships in the Indian Ocean could be impacting on the weather in Beijing.

The aerosol cloud-seeding creates droplets

so small they no longer band together to form rain.

Say goodbye, then, to the clearing rains China relies on to wash out air pollution and rid urban areas of the build up of smog.

Less rain, combined with stagnation of air, leads to poor air quality for China — no matter how far it cuts its own emissions from factories and cars.

“The haze-inducing conditions are 50 per cent more likely to form between 2050 and 2099 than they were from 1950 to 1999,” says climate change writer Robinson Meyer in the The Atlantic.

“And once those patterns fall into place in any one episode, they are 80 per cent more likely to persist.”

Researchers James J. Winebrake, professor at Rochester (New York) Institute of Technology, and James J. Corbett, professor at the University of Delaware, say that since 2008, ship pollution exposure has contributed to more than 1.5 million premature deaths worldwide.

Other studies have found that emissions from shipping are responsible for 24,000 premature deaths annually in East Asia, with 75 per cent of those deaths occurring in China.

It’s important to note these estimates don’t include the deaths, injuries, and economic damage from pollution-generated flooding, hurricanes, and other extreme weather events.

The link is clear – a reduction in sulphur emissions from ships leads to a reduction in sulphate aerosols, which in turn cuts down not only on the direct ill effects of shipping pollution, but on the potential for catastrophic weather events as well.

观点

| OPINION

Shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea experience twice as many lightning strikes than other areas of the water

印度洋和中国南海的航道比其他水域遭受的闪电 袭击要多两倍。

IMPACT Marine diesel emissions have a high concentration of sulphur dioxide.

Photo: Shutterstock.com 乌烟瘴气 海洋柴油的排放有高浓度二 氧化硫。图片来源：Shutterstock.com

海运排放是否是中国雾霾的罪魁祸首？ 在20世纪60年代，麻省理工学院的数学家和 气象学家爱德华·洛伦兹建立了一个模拟大 气中空气流动的数学模型，展示了一只蝴蝶 在南美洲拍打翅膀的方式，最终可能会影响 到纽约中央公园的天气。 那么，根据他的“混沌理论”，认为印度洋上 的一艘船会影响中国的气候，这是否太危言 耸听了？ 如果像人们普遍认为的那样，污染程度与恶 劣气候息息相关，那么就有理由认为，排放 量的大小与天气的极端程度成正比。 这一理论得到了宾夕法尼亚州立大学大气 科学系教授迈克尔·曼恩的最新研究成果的 支持。

这项研究观测了历史上的大气情况，用以定 义极端天气模式的条件。 曼恩教授说： “我们基本上可以确定气候变 化与最近发生的极端天气事件之间存在直 接联系。 ”

分析中国大陆的情况，中国是世界上空气污 染的主要来源： · 数十年来，暴雪首次袭击上海。 · 暴雨和洪水。

· 七级以上强风

这仅仅是在过去的几个月中。

中国发现自己有污染问题，并制定了严格的 指导方针，比如禁止新建燃煤电厂，并要求 现有工厂减少排放，主要城市和地区的车辆 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

限行，甚至将燃煤锅炉从住宅区中移除等。

不过，尽管中国的空气质量有所改善，但在 控制天气方面一个国家也只能做这么多了。 有一个非常明显的污染源是处于国家直接 管控之外的。有证据表明，极端天气与航运 业产生的污染有关。

发表在科学杂志《地球物理研究快报》上的 一篇论文指出，印度洋和中国南海的主要航 道遭受着两倍于其他水域的闪电袭击。 这究竟是如何发生的：

运作柴油机的海运船只排放的二氧化硫含 量很高，这导致了大气中硫酸盐气溶胶的形 成。这些悬浮微粒类似水蒸气凝结成的核 心，从而形成云。 通常情况下，海洋云会形成较大的水滴，也 不会攀升至较高的高度。然而，这些二氧化 硫形成的云实则由细微的颗粒组成，该微 粒更容易通过对流上升，从而导致闪电的 增加。

气溶胶形成的云散播产生的液滴非常小，它 们不再聚集在一起形成降雨。

中国需要加强空气污染管控，以消除城市地 区的雾霾现象。 无论在多大程度上减少了工厂和汽车的排 放量，可降雨量少，再加上空气不流通，导致 了中国的空气质量不佳。 气候变化专栏作家罗宾逊·梅耶在美国大西 洋月刊上发表： “在2050年到2099年之间， 危险条件形成的可能性比1950年到1999年 高出50%

“一旦这些形态在任何地点集中出现，它们 的持续时间就会增加80%。 ”

罗切斯特大学（纽约）理工学院的詹姆斯J· 温尼贝里克教授和特拉华大学的詹姆斯J· 科贝特教授联合声明，自2008年以来，船舶 污染在全球范围内已造成150多万人的过 早死亡。

那么，这与中国的极端气候存在哪些必然的 联系呢？

其他研究发现，东亚地区每年有24万人因运 输污染而过早死亡，而其中75%的死亡事件 发生在中国。

换句话说，印度洋上的远航船只可能会影响 北京的天气。

这种联系是显而易见的——减少船舶的硫 排放导致硫酸盐气溶胶的减少，这不仅减少 了运输污染直接造成的不良影响，还降低了 发生灾难性气候的几率。

以色列希伯来大学的大气科学家丹尼尔·罗 森菲尔德等研究人员认为，这些由船舶产生 的气溶胶可以通过多种方式影响天气系统， 比如将降水（和污染）从一个区域转移到另 一个区域，甚至可能传至数千公里之外。

值得注意的是，这些事件甚至不包括因污染 引发的洪水、飓风和其他极端气候造成的非 自然死亡、伤害和重大经济损失。

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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OPINION | 观点 Mark Tanner, China Skinny Mark Tanner is founder and managing director of Shanghai-based China Skinny. Through his agency, he has worked with over 150 international brands such as IKEA, Colgate, Tourism Malaysia, ANZ, Westpac and IHG on their China market entry and growth strategies, trend analysis, branding and new product development. 马克·唐纳, 灼见商务咨询（上海）有限公司 马克·唐纳是上海市灼见商务咨询公司的创始人和总经理。他的机构与 宜家宜居、高露洁、马来西亚旅游局、澳新银行、西太平洋银行和洲际酒 店等150多个国际品牌都有合作关系，帮助他们进入中国市场，推进业 务增长战略，分析市场趋势，推广品牌和开发新产品。

MARK TANNER | 马克·唐纳

The dark underbelly of fake products remains rampant in China 在中国，假冒产品的负面影响依旧猖獗。

How to protect your brand from counterfeiters THE early years of the 2010s felt like bad years for fakes in China.

It seemed like there was a new expose popping up every week, whether it was rat meat dressed up as lamb, fake Apple stores that even fooled the staff, or fake chicken eggs.

Today there is an occasional headline about a police bust of counterfeit condoms or infant formula; the constant bombardment of media about fakes has subsided.

There has been a genuine increase in public and private resources and direction to combat fakes, coupled with more positive court rulings.

Beijing’s clampdown on corruption and the growing number of Chinese brands with their intellectual property to protect has increased the focus on fighting fakes.

But don’t be fooled – just because we’re not often hearing about counterfeits, the dark underbelly of fake products remains rampant in China.

Just this month, four separate gangs were arrested in Guangdong with millions of dollars worth of fakes from wine to health supplements.

This is just a drop in the ocean of the wholesale counterfeiting happening in China. In 2016, a US Chamber of Commerce report noted that mainland China was the source of 72 36

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

per cent of global physical trade-related counterfeiting.

Add Hong Kong to the mix and you’re up at 86 per cent – an estimated $397 billion. And 12.5 per cent of China’s 2016 exports were calculated to be fakes.

Whereas some Chinese consumers are attracted to cheap rip-offs, many are duped unwillingly. As recently as the Singles’ Day sales in November last year, 40 per cent of cosmetics bought from cross-border platforms were fake.

China’s fake endemic spans far beyond products. The latest wave to sweep ecommerce sites is fake advertising using stock images of weathered old men, praying on consumers’ empathy to ‘help poor rural farmers’ selling fruit.

For brands, there are a host of steps businesses can take to minimise the risk. The first and most obvious is ensuring you’ve done all necessary trademarking in the relevant classes.

A recent article in Harvard Business Review detailed seven other ways businesses could fight counterfeits in China, including finding a good local lawyer and investment in anti-counterfeiting technology.

Another of the recommended steps is to join forces with ecommerce firms, the most obvious being Alibaba.

Alibaba has long been labelled a villain in the counterfeiting world – the enabler for vendors to get their fake products to the market.

Many argue Alibaba could be using more of its immense technology resources to rid its platform of fakes.

Its listing on the New York Stock Exchange in 2014 and then being booted out of the prestigious International Anti-Counterfeiting Coalition in 2016 were catalysts for it to lift its game.

The company now uses algorithms to scan the 1.8 billion listings on its platforms, runs test-buying programs that seek out fakes, and assesses reports from brands and rights holders.

Members of its AACA (Alibaba Anti-Counterfeiting Alliance) receive priority treatment, which has helped increase its membership from 30 in January 2017 to 105 today.

Beyond the Harvard Business Review recommendations, there are numerous smart marketing and channel initiatives to reinforce your products’ authenticity with consumers.

Agencies such as China Skinny can assist with this.

This article was originally published on http:// www.ChinaSkinny.com

观点

| OPINION

如何摆脱仿冒困扰 保护品牌商标 2010年代初期，中国的假货市场猖獗一 时。

似乎每周都会曝光新事件，无论是老鼠肉 当羊肉出售，还是连苹果员工都难辨别的 山寨手机店，再或是假鸡蛋事件。 最近偶尔有关于警方逮获假冒避孕套或 婴儿奶粉的新闻标题，但媒体对假货的不 断轰击逐渐平息。 在打击假货方面，公共和私人资源正在往 良好的方向发展，再加上法院对假冒伪劣 产品的更严格的裁决。 北京对腐败的打压以及拥有自己知识产 权保护的中国品牌数量不断增加，双管齐 下加大对假货的打击力度。

但千万别被其表象所蒙蔽——仅仅是由 于假冒伪劣产品不常会在我们身边出现， 而在中国，假冒产品依然猖獗。 就在本月，四个不同的造假组织在广东被 捕，所查处从葡萄酒到保健品共计价值数 百万美元的假货。

这只是中国大规模假冒伪劣产品的冰山 一角。2016年，美国商会的一份报告指 出，72%的全球实体假冒伪劣产品来自中 国大陆。

如果算上香港的话比例达到86％，估计价 WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

值约为3,970亿美元。中国2016年出口的 12.5％被认为是假货。

尽管一些中国消费者会被廉价的盗版商 品所吸引，但更多人往往不愿被欺骗。就 在去年11月的天猫双11那天，从跨境平台 购买的化妆品中有四成均为假货。 中国的假冒风气远不止体现在产品上。席 卷跨境电商的最新浪潮是盗用图库里饱 经风霜的老人照片进行虚假广告宣传，以 此骗取消费者同情来“帮助农村贫困农 民”卖水果。 对于品牌来说，企业可以采取一系列措施 来降低被假冒风险。最重要的做法是确保 您在相关产品类别中完成了所有必要的 商标注册。

《哈佛商业评论》最近的一篇文章中详细 介绍了企业在中国打击假冒产品的七种 方式，包括寻求一位优秀的当地律师，在 防伪技术上投资等。 推荐的做法之一是与电子商务公司强强 联手，比如电商巨头阿里巴巴。

长期以来，阿里巴巴一直被称为假冒领域 的罪魁祸首，它促使供应商将假冒产品推 向市场。

然而更多人认为阿里巴巴可能利用其巨 大的技术资源来摆脱它假货平台的污点。

2014年在纽约证券交易所上市，然后在 2016年被知名的国际反假联盟逐出，这是 推动其迅猛发展的催化剂。 该公司现在使用算法扫描其平台上的18 亿产品列表，运行测试购买计划来侦测出 假货，并评估品牌和股权持有者的报告。 其AACA成员（阿里巴巴反假联盟）将得 到优先待遇，这对企业而言大有益处。这 使得其成员从2017年1月的30个增加至 现如今的105个。

除了《哈佛商业评论》的建议之外，还有众 多智能营销和渠道举措来加强您的产品 与消费者的真实性。

像China Skinny这样的机构可以提供此 类帮助。 该文最初发表于http://www.

ChinaSkinny.com。

REAL OR FAKE China’s bustling, colourful markets are great for bargain hunters, but not all goods sold are authentic. Photo shutterstock.com 亦真亦假 中国熙熙攘攘的市场之下，琳琅 满目的市场对低端消费人群来说是件好事， 但并不是所有的商品都货真价实。 2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

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OPINION | 观点 Yixiao Zhou Lecturer in Economics, Curtin University 周伊晓 科廷大学经济学讲师

Rod Tyers Winthrop Professor of Economics, University of Western Australia 罗德·泰尔斯 西澳大学经济学教授

The impacts of rising protectionism can be as large (in Australia) as they are in the US and China

无论中美任意一方的贸易保护主义抬头，将会对澳 大利亚市场带来巨大冲击。

What’s at stake in the tariff negotiations between the US and China THE United States and China have put on hold plans to place tariffs on exports, in an effort to avoid a trade war. Our analysis shows just how important these negotiations are, with the impact of trade wars adversely affecting both economies and others like Australia.

The threat of a trade war started when US President Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on Chinese imported electronics, aerospace products, and machinery. China retaliated hours later and announced 25 per cent tariffs on US exports to China.

Now both sides are agreeing to take “measures to substantially reduce the United States trade deficit in goods with China” and to work on expanding trade and protecting intellectual property.

We modelled a number of scenarios showing all increases in US or Chinese protection would cause international trade, and the global economy more generally, to shrink.

We also find interest rates would rise everywhere and the Australian dollar would depreciate.

China and US trade would then fall by between a quarter and a third, depending on whether the tariffs are hiked unilaterally or bilaterally.

Australia’s lucrative exports to China would also fall as US demand for China’s goods fall and China requires smaller quantities of Australian goods to produce them.

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Because Australia is a small, open economy that is strongly influenced by developments abroad, the impacts of rising protectionism can be as large here as they are in the US and China.

We found if US imposed tariffs but there was no retaliation abroad, the rise in tariff revenue would provide relief for the US economy and that this would raise the after-tax incomes of Americans even though US GDP would fall.

However, we found after-tax incomes would fall everywhere else.

If China retaliated to the tariffs, all countries and regions would suffer losses, with Australia’s net loss among the largest, in per capita terms.

The effects on China would be the largest, relative to their current disposable income.

Because China would suffer the largest proportional loss of welfare, their government would have the strongest incentive to negotiate.

We expect any initial effects of tariffs on both sides to be slight, in small part this is because it will cause trade to be diverted to and through other countries.

Because trade is likely to leak around the new protectionist barriers, the US and China could choose to impose the protection on imports from all countries.

If this were the case global losses would be very much larger, and they would be borne primarily by third countries, including Europe and Australia.

One possible silver lining of this scenario for central banks would be inflation in the advanced economies like Australia, causing interest rates to rise.

This would take pressure off the central banks, which have been struggling to prevent costly deflation.

While the US president continues to bring up a trade deficit with China as a concern, most economists agree that trade imbalances depend most on differences in saving rates.

The US is threatened by the continuing rapid expansion of the Chinese economy and because US firms have to relinquish intellectual property in order to enter the large and growing Chinese market.

The US also fears China’s move toward more sophisticated manufacturing and services under the “Made in China 2025” plan.

Whether or not China and the US are successful in negotiating out of a trade war and restoring the integrated global economy, there will still be strategic tensions between the nations.

These will create political pressure for stronger trade interventions in the future and will place countries like Australia at risk of substantial economic losses.

This article was originally published on The Conversation.

观点

| OPINION

TOP LEVEL TALKS Whether or not China and the US are successful in negotiating out of a trade war and restoring the integrated global economy, there will still be strategic tensions between the nations. Photo: Reuters 高层会谈 无论中美能否通过谈判，顺利走 出贸易战，亦或是恢复全球一体化经济，两 国之间将仍然存在战略性的紧张关系。照 片：路透社

中美关税谈判有何利害关系

美国和中国已经搁置了出口关税计划，以 避免贸易战的发生。我们的分析表明了这 些谈判的重要性，贸易战对双方经济以及 澳大利亚等其他国家都产生了不利影响。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布对从中国进 口的电子、航空和机械产品加收25%的关 税，自此拉开了贸易战的序幕。中国在数小 时后做出了反击，宣布对美国进口商品征 收25%的关税。 目前，中美双方就“采取有效措施减少美对 华逆差”达成共识，并致力于扩大贸易和保 护知识产权。 我们对多种情形的进行了模拟分析，结果 表明中美任何一方贸易保护的加强都会导 致国际贸易乃至全球经济的缩减，还会导 致各地利率下降，以及澳元贬值。

中美贸易额将下降四分之一至三分之一， 下降额度取决于是单方还是双方加征关 税。澳大利亚对中国的出口获益丰厚，但会 随着美国对中国商品需求量的一降再降， 因为中国需要澳洲制造且出口美国的产品 也会随之减少。 由于澳大利亚是备受外国发展影响的小型

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开放经济体，无论中美，日益抬头的保护主 义对其产生的影响同样巨大。 我们发现，美国如果加征关税且对国外不 具有报复性，即使美国GDP下降，但关税 收入的增加将为美国经济带来缓解，美国 公民的税后收入也能够得到提高。然而我 们也发现，税后收入将在其他方面会有所 下降。

如果中国实施关税报复打击，所有国家和 地区都会遭受损失。按人均计算，澳大利亚 的净损失最为惨重。

就当前可支配收入而言，中国所受影响最 大。因为中国会损失很大比重的社会福利， 所以中国政府十分迫切地要进行协商。 我们希望关税问题对双方造成的任何影响 都可以降到最低，否则我们就会选择与其 他国家或通过别国来进行贸易。美国和中 国或将强制实施针对所有国家的进口保护 主义政策，因为贸易很可能受到新的保护 主义壁垒的影响。

这种情况下，全球经济损失增加，且这些损 失的后果将主要由欧洲和澳大利亚等第三 方国家承担。

从中央银行可以窥见一线可能，澳大利亚 等发达经济体的通货膨胀会导致利率上 升。

这为一直竭力避免通货紧缩造成惨重损失 的中央银行减轻了压力。 与中国之间的贸易逆差一直是美国总统关 心的问题。经济学家大多认为储蓄率是贸 易不平衡的主要原因。 美国面对迅猛扩张的中国经济的威胁。美 企不得不放弃其知识产权，以换取庞大而 深具潜力的中国市场的通行证。

美国也担心中国的制造业和服务业会因“ 中国制造2025”规划而再创新高。

无论中美是否顺利协商解决贸易战问题， 重建全球经济，两国之间战略性的紧张关 系不可能彻底消弭。 未来若要加强贸易干预，就不得不面临更 大的政治压力，澳大利亚等国的实体经济 因此也会有受损的风险。 本文原发表于The Conversation。

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

39

ECONOMICS | 经济

中国4月工业企业利润攀升至 六个月以来最高点

Industrial profits jump to six-month high

The higher April data should help ease concerns of slowing momentum in China’s economy

4月份数据应该有助于 缓解对中国经济增长 减缓的担忧。

40

AUSTRALIA CHINA BUSINESS REVIEW | 澳中商讯

经济 Elias Glenn Reuters CHINA’s industrial sector is still experiencing solid growth momentum, despite curbs on pollution and rocky trade relations with the United States.

Profits earned by Chinese industrial companies in April rose at their fastest pace in six months, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, as factories benefited from higher prices and stronger demand.

Profits in April rose 21.9 per cent year-onyear to 576 billion yuan ($US90.14 billion), the quickest since October, bringing gains for the first four months of 2018 to 15 per cent.

The rebound was helped by lower comparison figures for April 2017, higher factory prices and stronger demand, He Ping, head of NBS’ industrial division, said in a statement.

It was a significant improvement over March’s 3.1 per cent growth – the slowest in more than a year and which government officials had blamed on the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.

The higher April data should help ease concerns of slowing momentum in China’s economy as the country implements tougher pollution controls on “smokestack” industries and cash-strapped regional governments cut back on big investment projects, curbing demand for building materials.

Profit growth for Chinese industrial companies has softened from last year’s strong pace as factory gate price gains weaken.

In the first four months of 2017, profits rose 24.4 per cent.

China’s producer price inflation picked up to 3.4 per cent in April from March but was much lower than 6.4 per cent in the year-ago period.

Weaker profit growth suggests companies may be reluctant to invest and hire new staff, while making it harder for debt-laden firms to service their debt, especially state-owned enterprises that account for the bulk of the country’s high leverage.

A Reuters analysis showed debt growth for Chinese companies had slowed to the lowest rate in more than a decade, but companies had also seen profit margins squeezed to their lowest level in two years.

April economic data had shown signs of slowing momentum as investment growth touched a near 20-year low and retail sales growth weakened.

Despite stronger-than-expected first-quarter economic growth, economists polled by

Reuters still expect a gradual slowdown to around 6.5 per cent this year from 6.9 per cent in 2017, as rising borrowing costs weigh on consumption and investment.

Beijing continues to call for tighter controls on risky investments and speculation in the property sector but does not want to cut off funding to firms in the ‘real economy’ such as manufacturing operations that are a key source of jobs.

There have also been signs policymakers have moved to a slightly looser stance as they look to ensure growth does not slow too much, while also keeping financial risks under control.

April’s rebound was led by the steel, chemicals and automobile industries, Mr He said, as profits for iron and steel processing firms rose 260 per cent in April.

No industrial sectors recorded year-on-year losses over January to April, the data showed.

But earnings in the computer and telecommunications sector fell 5.3 per cent over the four months, though that was a slight improvement from an 11 per cent decline in the first quarter.

Liabilities of industrial firms rose 6.1 per cent year-on-year, according to the statistics bureau.

Profits at China’s state-owned firms rose 26.2 per cent to 627 billion yuan for Jan-April, compared with a 23.1 per cent rise in the first quarter.

The data includes companies with annual revenues of more than 20 million yuan from their main operations.

| ECONOMICS

回升、去年利润基数较低、生产加快、成本 下降等影响。

于3月份同比增长3.1%——这也是一年多 来的最小幅的增长比——政府官员将其归 咎于农历新年假期。 4月份数据应该有助于缓解对中国经济增 长减缓的担忧，因为中国对“烟囱”行业 实施了更严格的污染控制，而资金紧张的 地方政府削减了大型投资项目，抑制了对 建筑材料的需求。随着工业品出厂价格走 弱，中国工业企业的利润增长已从去年的 强劲增长中放缓。

在2017年的前4个月，利润增长了24.4%。

中国4月份生产者物价指数同比上涨3.4% ，但远低于去年同期的6.4%。 利润增长疲软表明，企业可能不愿投资和 雇佣新员工，同时加大了负债累累的企业 偿还债务的难度，尤其是中国占高杠杆率 的国有企业。 路透社的分析显示，中国企业的债务增长 已放缓至十多年来的最低水平，同时企业 的利润率也已降至两年来的最低水平。 4月份的经济数据显示出增长放缓的迹 象，投资增长触及近20年低点，零售销售 增长放缓。尽管第一季度经济增长强于 预期，但据路透社调查经济学家预计，随 着借贷成本上升，相应消费与投资也会随 之下降，今年的经济增速将从2017年的 6.9%放缓至6.5%左右。

中国政府继续呼吁对房地产行业的风险投 资及投机行为进行更严格的管控，但不希望 切断对“实体经济”企业的资金支持，比如制 造业的运营就是解决就业问题的关键。

和伊莱亚斯·格伦（Elias Glenn） 路透社

也有迹象表明，政策制定者已采取了略微 放宽的立场，因为他们希望确保经济增长 势头不会骤降，同时也能控制金融风险。

中国国家统计局周日公布，4月全国规模 以上工业企业利润增长速度达到6个月以 来的最高水平，原因是工厂受益于更高的 价格和更强劲的需求。

数据显示，今年1-4月份，没有全国规模以 上工业企业部门出现同比亏损。但在过去 4个月中，计算机和电信行业的利润下降 了5.3%，尽管其与第一季度11%的降幅相 比略有改善。

尽管对污染的限制和与美国贸易关系的 不明朗，中国的工业仍然保持着强劲的增 长势头。

实现利润总额5,760.3亿元人民币（901.4 亿美元），同比增长21.9%，使2018年前4 个月的利润增长至15%，且为去年10月以 来最高。 统计局工业司何平在一份声明中表 示，2017年4月的现象是受产品价格涨幅

何平表示，钢铁、化工、汽车等行业对工业 企业利润增长拉动作用明显，4月份钢铁 加工企业的利润同比增长了260%。

根据国家统计局的数据，工业企业的负债 同比增长6.1%。1-4月，国有控股企业实现 利润总额同比增长26.2%，达到6,270亿 元人民币，而第一季度的增幅为23.1%。 这些数据包括主要业务年收入超过2,000 万元人民币的企业。

REBOUND Profits for China’s iron and steel manufacturers increased by 260 per cent in April Photo: Shutterstock.com 4月份，中国钢铁制造商的反弹利润增长了 260%。图片来源：Shutterstock.com WWW.ACBR.COM.AU

2018年六月 | JUNE 2018

41

CHINA EXPO CHINAINTERNATIONAL INTERNATIONAL IMPORT IMPORT EXPO SHANGHAI SHANGHAI NOV NOV 5-10, 5-10, 2018

TheAustralia Australia China China Business Business Council Council (WA) and The and China China Chamber Chamber of of Commerce Commerceinin Australia(CCCA) (CCCA)(Perth (PerthBranch) Branch) invite invite you to exhibit Australia exhibit at at the theChina ChinaInternational InternationalImport Import ExpoininShanghai Shanghaifrom fromNovember November 55 to 10, 2018.

Expo CIIEisisaaChinese ChineseGovernment Government backed backed event, event, with CIIE with hosts hosts the the Ministry Ministry of ofCommerce Commerceofofthe the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM) and the Shanghai Municipal People’s Government.

People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM) and the Shanghai Municipal People’s Government.

Thisisisunique uniqueininChina, China, itit signifies signifies their their view view of This of firmly firmly supporting supporting trade tradeliberalisation liberalisationand and economic globalisation, opening the Chinese market to the world. economic globalisation, opening the Chinese market to the world.

STRONGPURCHASE PURCHASEDEMAND, DEMAND, A A STRONG LARGENUMBER NUMBEROF OFPROFESSIONAL PROFESSIONAL LARGE PURCHASES: PURCHASES:

150,000 domestic and foreign professional 150,000 domestic and foreign professional purchasers will participate in the Expo; and purchasers will participate in the Expo; and • Chinese enterprises from across China and • Chinese enterprises from across China and Merchants from across the globe will be Merchants from across the globe will be there to do business. there to do business.

•

•

LARGE EXHIBITION, DIVERSIFIED & LARGE EXHIBITION, DIVERSIFIED & TARGETED SUPPORTING ACTIVITIES: TARGETED SUPPORTING ACTIVITIES: • Enterprises from over 100 countries and •

Enterprises over 100 countriesinand regions arefrom expected to participate CIIE. regions are expected to participate in CIIE. • The following supporting activities will be • The following supporting activities will be held during the Expo: held• during the Expo: matchmaking Supply-demand • Supply-demand matchmaking meetings; meetings; • Seminars; and • • Seminars; and Product releases.

• Product releases.

CIIE CIIE HAS HAS THREE THREEPARTS: PARTS:

1.

1. Country CountryPavilion Pavilionfor forTrade Tradeand andInvestment, Investment,this thisisis exclusively for country exhibitions, not business exclusively for country exhibitions, not business transactions. The Australian Government will be transactions. The Australian Government will be exhibiting in this Pavilion. exhibiting in this Pavilion.

2. Enterprise and Business Exhibition 2. Enterprise and Business Exhibition a) Trade in goods: a) Trade in goods: 1. High-end Intelligent Equipment; 1. High-end Intelligent Equipment; 2. Consumer Electronics & Appliances; 2. Automobile; Consumer Electronics & Appliances; 3.

3.

Automobile; 4. Apparel, Accessories & Consumer 4. Goods; Apparel, Accessories & Consumer Goods; 5. Food & Agricultural Products; and 5.

Food & Agricultural 6. Medical Equipment Products; & Medicaland Care 6. Products.

Medical Equipment & Medical Care Products. b) Trade in services: b)1.Trade in services: Tourism; 1.

Tourism; 2. Emerging Technologies; 2. Culture Emerging Technologies; 3. & Education; 3. Creative Culture &Design; Education; 4. and 4. Service CreativeOutsourcing.

Design; and 5.

5. International Service Outsourcing.

6.

Trade Forum 6. International Trade Forum

Please see the China International Import Expo information pack and application forms for further ForInternational further information to submit applications please contact Lucy Please see details. the China Importand Expo information pack and application forms Palermo, Events information and Communications Manger on (08) 6189 7844 or email for further ACBC details.(WA) For further and to submit applications please contact Lucy lucy.palermo@acbc.com.au (WeChat Lucy_Clare_Palermo).

Palermo, ACBC (WA) Events and Communications Manger on (08) 6189 7844 or email lucy.palermo@acbc.com.au (WeChat Lucy_Clare_Palermo).

Ord River Nature Reserve Kimberley Region, Western Australia Photo: Madame Yu Huiwen

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