ATHLETIC S COACH
YOUTH COMPETITION IS NOT A GUIDE FOR ELITE PERFORMANCE Youth sport is becoming an increasingly serious business, driven by the belief that early success is an accurate indicator of potential
A recent study published in the Journal of Sports Sciences has revealed that for junior Track and Field athletes, performances at one age grade were poor predictors of performance at subsequent age grades (Kearney, Hayes & Nevill, 2018). Over 130,000 performances were analysed between 2005 and 2015, making this one of the largest long-term studies completed on the correlation between junior and elite performances. An analysis revealed that of the top 20 ranked senior athletes, only nine percent of males and 13
percent of females were also ranked in the top 20 at Under 13 level. Of the athletes who were ranked in the top 20 at Under 13, less than 14% were still ranked in the top 20 and less than 30% were ranked anywhere at all on the national rankings by Under 20. These results suggest that; a) performances when an athlete is Under 13 is a very weak indicator of future success and b) success at Under 13 level
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