Youth Competition is not a Guide for Elite Performance

YOUTH COMPETITION IS NOT A GUIDE FOR ELITE PERFORMANCE

"Youth sport is becoming an increasingly serious business, driven by the belief that early success is an accurate indicator of potential"

A recent study published in the Journal of Sports Sciences has revealed that for junior Track and Field athletes, performances at one age grade were poor predictors of performance at subsequent age grades (Kearney, Hayes & Nevill, 2018). Over 130,000 performances were analysed between 2005 and 2015, making this one of the largest long-term studies completed on the correlation between junior and elite performances.

An analysis revealed that of the top 20 ranked senior athletes, only nine percent of males and 13 percent of females were also ranked in the top 20 at Under 13 level.

Of the athletes who were ranked in the top 20 at Under 13, less than 14% were still ranked in the top 20 and less than 30% were ranked anywhere at all on the national rankings by Under 20. These results suggest that; a) performances when an athlete is Under 13 is a very weak indicator of future success and b) success at Under 13 level does not appear to be a major driving factor for long term participation in the sport.

The lack of correlation between performances at junior and senior level was not limited to the top performing junior athletes. Among the broader Track and Field population, there was poor correlation between performances from one age grade to a later grade. The earliest age where an athlete’s performances began to correlate reliably with future performance was noted between Under 17 and Under 20 for female athletes or Under 18 and Under 20 for male athletes.

The researchers identified numerous reasons for this discrepency in developing athlete’s ability. As Accredited Coaches should already be aware, developmental and training ages play significant role in performance outcomes of junior athletes, where there is often considerable varation due to the onset of puberty and athletes with vastly different experience in the sport. It was hypothesized that athletes who begin specialising in an event at a younger age may be at a competitive advantage at Under 13 level, but be a disadvantage in later years as athletes with a more broad base of physical fitness surpass them in their teenage years.

The study also focussed heavily on the role that the relative age effect had on competition performance. The researchers noted that athletes born earlier in the selection year were significantly more likely to experience success from Under 9 to Under 17 levels. The older an athlete was in their given age grade was the most reliable indicator of athlete success at youth level. For example, the top performing Under 13 males were 14 times more likely to be born in the first three months than in the rest of the year.

The coaching implication from this study is to avoid placing significance on competition for junior athletes. The development years should instead focus on building the foundation for physical competance of all athletes and introducing the technical model of the events in an age-appropriate and enjoyable way. If formal competition is to play a role in the program of junior athletes, results should be taken with a grain of salt and the focus should be on enjoyment and the development of competition skills for the future.