Farm Bureau Press for October 11

OCTOBER 11, 2019 • VOLUME 22 • ISSUE 20

Farm Bureau Press A PEEK INSIDE

ARFB AT WORK PRESIDENT RANDY VEACH

ArFB Recognizes Arkasnas Legislators, page 2.

ArFB President Randy Veach and other Farm Bureau leaders join American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall on a trip to Europe to discuss trade issues with European Union representatives, like EU Agriculture Commissioner Phil Hogan.

American Farm Bureau Convention Registration is open page 3.

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In honor of the American Farm Bureau centennial, ArFB President Randy Veach joined AFBF President Zippy Duvall, Vice President Scott VanderWal and other Farm Bureau leaders at a wreath-laying ceremony at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier at Arlington National Cemetary.

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LEGISLATIVE RECOGNITION That state board of the Arkansas Farm Bureau recently authorized the creation of special awards for presentation to legislators who sponsored priority agricultural legislation during the most recent session of the Arkansas General Assembly. These plaques stand above other appreciation awards that are often presented to legislators by local county Farm Bureaus and are meant to recognize the challenge that accompanies being a sponsor of proposed legislation.

In addition to the awards acknowledged below, other presentations will occur in the coming weeks.

David Hillman | Rep. David Hillman received his plaque for helping to pass Act 501 to “require truth in labeling of agricultural products that are edible by humans.”

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Matt Pitsch | Sen. Matt Pitsch was honored for sponsoring Act 515 to “require the disclosure of agricultural operations near real property located in a rural area.”

Marcus Richmond | Rep. Marcus Richmond received his plaque for leading the effort to pass Act 588 to “establish the Arkansas New Farm Machinery Quality Assurance Act.”

Gary Stubblefield | Sen. Gary Stubblefield was honored for sponsoring SB 550 to “amend the law regarding liquid livestock litter utilization.”

DeAnn Vaught | Rep. DeAnn Vaught was honored for sponsoring Act 515 to “require the disclosure of agricultural operations near real property located in a rural area.”

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ARFB HEADS TO AUSTIN FOR ABFB ANNUAL CONVENTION

Westerman & Veach | (from left) ArFB Randy Veach, state Sen. Gary Stubblefield, Fourth District U.S. Congressman Bruce Westerman and state Rep. Jon Eubanks all met with farmers and ranchers and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers personnel, Oct. 8 in Paris, to discuss levee restoration. The area levee system was topped and breached during severe spring flooding along the Arkansas River.

Master Gardens | The Pulaski County Master Gardeners are utilizing a grant from the ArFB Foundation to develop a “showplace” garden at the C.A. Vines 4-H Center in Ferndale. Still a “Work in Progress,” Pulaski County Farm Bureau Kathy Ratcliffe shared what they have accomplished so far, and how the garden complements the mission of the 4-H Center.

Plans are underway for the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual convention in Austin, Texas, Jan. 19-22. Learn about the policies and perspectives that will affect your farm or agribusiness and gain deep insight into the trends and realities impacting food production at the 101st Annual Convention & Trade Show.

With a focus on AFBF’s theme for the year, 2020 Vision: Sustaining America’s Agriculture, Annual Convention will bring thousands of farmers and ranchers from around the country together to hear from powerful speakers on subjects ranging from trade, broadband and the farm economy to business development, consumer engagement and technology. Advocacy and member engagement and development will also be featured topics.

The Trade Show provides hands-on access to innovative products and services from highly regarded industry leaders. At the Cultivation Center, on the Trade Show floor, Annual Convention attendees can enjoy TED-style talks as well as hear the Farm Bureau Ag Innovation Challenge finalists pitch live to the Challenge judges.

Members should note that book Foundation Night Out tickets and agriculture tours offered by Texas Farm Bureau Federation will need to be booked through ArFB. If you have any questions, or need more information, contact Maleta Stephens at 50I-228-1410 or maleta. stephens@arfb. com.

You can register for the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 101st Annual Convention at http://bit.ly/ AFBF2020Registration.

Toys for Tots Kickoff | The Arkansas Marines of “India Company” including Major, U.S. Marine Corps and ArFB Assistant Director of Public Affairs and Government Relations Jason Smedley completed a 50-mile hike from Hot Springs to the State Capitol to kick off the 2019 Toys for Tots campaign. Gov. Asa Hutchinson declared October 2019 Toys for Tots month.

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MARKET NEWS as of October 9, 2019 Contact Brandy Carroll 501-228-1268 brandy.carroll@arfb.com

The October Production and Supply/Demand reports, released on Thursday, cut corn production less than 1% from the previous forecast.

U.S. farmers are expected to produce 13.8 billion bushels of corn on 81.8 million acres, with an average yield of 168.4 bushels per acre. The recent corn stocks report pegged corn in all positions at 2.11 billion bushels, well below the average trade guess, and down 1 percent from this time in 2018. That carried over into the supply/demand report, with corn supplies down sharply. The net result was ending stocks down 261 million bushels to 1.929 billion bushels and an average on-farm price of $3.80/ bushel. While that all seems positive, the market was expecting a much bigger cut to production and prices were down sharply on Thursday.

Disappointing export sales of only 11.2 million bushels added to the negative undertone. December will have support around $3.70. A severe winter storm headed for the northern corn belt could do serious damage to the crop there over the weekend.

Thursday’s reports pegged soybean production at 3.55 billion bushels, down 2% from the previous estimate and 20% from 2018. The national average yield is pegged at 46.9 bushels per acre, and harvested acres are pegged at 75.6 million.

Soybean stocks, on the other hand, are 108% higher from a year ago at 913 million bushels. And while that is a huge number, the average trade guess was 981 million. The report showed disappearance was up 11% 4

in the June-August period, helping bring that total down a bit. USDA now estimates the season-average farm price to be $9, up 50 cents from the previous report. November beans are still trending higher and have resistance at the July high of $9.36.

Weekly exports of 77 million bushels, with China an active buyer, were supportive.

Cotton Cotton futures are chopping along mostly sideways, with December unable to move above resistance at 63 cents. The October reports showed production lowered to 21.7 million bales due to lower yield estimates primarily in Texas. Exports and domestic use were unchanged from last month, so the lower production carried over into ending stocks, now pegged at 7 million bales. The seasonaverage on-farm price is now pegged at 58 cents/pound, down 12.5 cents than the price for the 18 crop. Weekly export sales of 188,800 running bales were up 53% from the prior 4-week average, but the market is still looking for a trade deal with China to improve the outlook for cotton.

Rice Rice futures trade has been erratic to say the least over the past couple of weeks. November is attempting to build off support at $11.60 and has climbed back above the key $12 mark this week. Resistance will begin at the September high of $12.38 ½. Recent exports have been disappointing.

In the October production report, production was increased to 188.6 million cwt on better yields.

With exports and domestic usage remaining steady, that increase carried over directly into ending stocks, which are now pegged at 37.1 million cwt. The season average farm price estimate was down 20 cents from the previous report at $13.

Livestock, Dairy and Poultry The October Supply/Demand report shows higher production

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overall, as lower beef and turkey production and unchanged pork production were more than offset by higher broiler production. For 2020, higher pork and broiler production are expected. A continuing increase in pigs per litter points to larger supplies.

The quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September 1 hog heard at a record-setting 77.678 million head, up over 2.5 million head from the same time in 2018.

The December contact has reacted by failing at support at $72.50 and working lower over the past few days. However, the market did chart a bullish key reversal on Tuesday and then gapped higher on Wednesday to put the market back in position to test resistance at $70. Gains will likely be limited, though, without a trade deal with China.

Total U.S. milk production was raised in the October report thanks to a larger dairy herd. 2019 production is now pegged at 218.2 billion pounds, while 2020 production is pegged at 221.6 billion. Price estimates were also increased slightly, with 2019 Class III now estimated at $16.55/cwt and 2020 Class III estimated at $17.20/cwt.

Cattle Cattle futures have staged an impressive recovery in recent weeks, closing chart gaps left in reaction to the Tyson plant fire on the way higher. November Feeders need to close above $144 in order to extend the rally, while December live cattle have resistance at $112. Indications of tightening market-ready cattle supplies are supportive, but the market is technically overbought, which could limit the upside potential of the market.

EDITOR Ashley Wallace ashley.wallace@arfb.com