Farm Bureau Press | June 27

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Farm Bureau Press

Families celebrating the Fourth of July holiday continue to find high prices at the grocery store, based on the 2025 American Farm Bureau Federation annual marketbasket survey. An Independence Day cookout will cost $70.92 for 10 guests this year.

This is down only 30 cents from last year’s record-high cost. At $7.09 per person, 2025 will be the second-highest cost since Farm Bureau began the survey in 2013. The cookout favorites include cheeseburgers, chicken

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American Farm Bureau Applauds Suspension of Burdensome Labor Rule, Page 2

Livestock Relief Program: How it Works, Page 3

Ag in the Classroom | Boone County Women’s Leadership Committee took the milk cow demonstration to Harrison Middle School. In addition to the demonstration, they talked to students about the dairy and beef industries.

Teachers on the Farm | Teachers from across Arkansas experienced agriculture through a partnership between Arkansas Farm Bureau Ag in the Classroom and Economics Arkansas. Teachers participated in a local farm tour, which included stops at Cypress Valley Meat Company, Flying C Ranch and Simon Bros. Dairy.

COST OF SUMMER COOKOUT SURVEY

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breasts, pork chops, homemade potato salad, strawberries and ice cream, among other products. While the survey does not include an exhaustive list of Fourth of July options, it serves as a snapshot of prices families are facing this summer.

In Arkansas, the average cost of a this year’s cookout totaled $69.45, following the downward trend from 2024. Like every other state in the survey, beef and pork remain the highest priced commodity to include in an Independence Day celebration at $12.47 for two pounds of beef and $15.45 for three pounds of pork chops.

“Inflation and lower availability of some food items continue to keep prices stubbornly high for America’s families,” said AFBF Associate Economist Samantha Ayoub. “High prices doesn’t mean more money for farmers, however. Farmers are price takers, not price makers. Their share of the food retail dollar is just 15%. The cost of running their farm is up, from labor and transportation, to taxes.”

The marketbasket survey shows an increase in the cost of beef, potato salad and canned pork and beans, while there are drops in the cost of pork chops, chips and hamburger buns.

The retail price for 2 pounds of ground beef increased 4.4% to $13.33. Pork and beans will cost $2.69, up 20 cents from 2024. Potato salad is up 6.6% to $3.54. Several factors influence these increases, reflecting the sort of challenges farmers regularly face. Fewer cattle are available for processing, which is affecting supplies. Steel and aluminum tariffs mean increased prices on canned goods. The cost of eggs – used in potato saladis still elevated, although they are much lower than record highs earlier this year as egg-laying chicken populations are recovering from avian influenza.

Our survey found a reduction in cost for six cookout staples. Among them is a 3-pound package of pork chops, which is down 8.8% from last year, at $14.13. Chips average $4.80 a bag, a dime less than 2024. Hamburger buns are 2.6% less expensive, at $2.35. The amount of pork available to stores is up, which

AMERICAN FARM BUREAU APPLAUDS

BURDENSOME LABOR RULE

American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall commented on the Department of Labor suspending a rule dubbed the Farmworker Protection Act, which failed to live up to its name and was initially struck down by a district court.

“Farm Bureau thanks Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and the Trump administration for recognizing the obstacles created by this complex rule, which pit workers against their employers. Farmers value the men and women who choose to work on their farms, so they don’t take lightly the responsibility to care

SURVEY

is pushing prices down. The demand for potatoes has eased, helping bring down the cost of chips. Wheat prices are still much lower than record highs of three years ago, contributing to the slight decrease in the cost of buns.

Although the $7.09 per-person cost is near a historic high, when put in a global context, people in the U.S. spend a smaller percentage of their expenditures on food than in any other country.

AFBF President Zippy Duvall said, “We can celebrate America’s independence every year in part because of the hard work of the farmers and ranchers who contribute to the nation’s food independence. Farmers are dedicated to doing the right thing, and their commitment to sustainable and innovative farming practices ensures a safe and abundant food supply for every family in America.

“Farmers and ranchers achieve this, in part, through research, conservation and farm safety net programs that are made possible through a strong farm bill. We urge members of Congress to return from their holiday break and pass a new, modernized five-year farm bill. We appreciate efforts during the reconciliation process to address some issues facing agriculture, but only a new farm bill will bring the certainty farmers need to continue leading the world in agriculture.”

The federal government’s broader Consumer Price Index report for food at home shows an overall increase of 2.2% compared to a year ago. Farm Bureau’s informal marketbasket survey examines only those foods commonly associated with summer cookouts.

The July Fourth cookout survey is part of the Farm Bureau marketbasket series, which also includes the popular annual Thanksgiving dinner cost survey of common food staples Americans use to prepare a holiday meal at home.

Read the full results of the 2025 Fourth of July Cookout Survey here.

APPLAUDS SUSPENSION OF

for them. Our laws rightly penalize bad actors, but this rule assumed all employers are guilty until proven innocent.

“We pressed the administration to recognize the impact overreaching regulations have on farm viability and see this as a step in the right direction. We urge Congress to now follow the lead of the courts, which agreed with AFBF, and the administration by rescinding the rule altogether. Farmers need workable programs that ensure they can continue to provide jobs and put food on the table for America’s families.”

EMERGENCY LIVESTOCK RELIEF PROGRAM: HOW IT WORKS

Persistent drought and devastating wildfires across much of the U.S. in 2023 and 2024 significantly impacted livestock producers’ ability to maintain herd sizes and grazing operations. In response, USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) is delivering relief through the Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) 2023 and 2024. The program was formally implemented through a final rule published in the Federal Register on May 29, 2025.

ELRP 2023 and 2024 builds on a series of ad hoc livestock disaster assistance efforts launched after successive years of extreme weather. Like its predecessors, this latest iteration leverages data from the Livestock Forage Disaster Program (LFP) to streamline delivery. Authorized under Title I of the Disaster Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2025 (American Relief Act), the program allocates up to $2 billion for livestock-related losses, with approximately $1 billion committed to ELRP specifically for drought and wildfire damage. Unlike other disaster programs, ELRP 2023 and 2024 does not require a new application process. Instead, USDA will automatically issue payments to livestock producers with approved 2023 or 2024 LFP applications on file. The same eligibility rules that applied to LFP — such as livestock type, grazing land location and drought severity — carry over, with one notable exception: the average adjusted gross income (AGI) limit from LFP does not apply to ELRP.

Learn more about the Emergency Livestock Relief Program and how it works here.

MARKET NEWS

as of June 25, 2025

Contact Brandy Carroll brandy.carroll@arfb.com

Tyler Oxner tyler.oxner@arfb.com

Rice

In a surprising move, USDA aggressively cut the rice production estimate in the WASDE report, without waiting for the June acreage report. Due to excessive rains throughout the Delta, the acreage forecast was reduced to 2.83 million acres planted acres, down 70,000 acres from the May report and the March Prospective Plantings report. With 2.77 million acres projected to be harvested at a yield of 7,746 lbs/ac, the total crop is pegged at 214.4 million cwt. The reduction was partially offset by a reduction in domestic and residual use and a 1 million cwt increase in the import projection. The net result of the WASDE report was a reduction in ending stocks to 46.6 million cwt for 2025/26. The average on-farm price is projected to be $13.50 for all rice and $12.50 for long-grain. The crop condition has also suffered from the weather, with only 71% of the Arkansas crop in good to excellent condition. Futures markets, which have been trending higher since May, turned sharply lower last week despite the bullish numbers in the report. September has support near $13.40.

Corn

Bearish sentiment remains in control of the corn market. Neither a lower crop condition rating nor a sizable flash sale to Mexico earlier this week was enough to halt the selling pressure. Much of the market’s attention has shifted to next week’s USDA acreage report, where expectations are leaning toward an increase in planted corn acres — adding to concerns over potential supply. USDA’s latest Crop Progress report showed a 2-point decline in national corn conditions, now rated

70% good to excellent. While the drop raised eyebrows, that rating still suggests strong yield potential, especially with forecasts calling for mostly favorable weather. As long as conditions stay benign, traders appear reluctant to price in much production risk. From a technical perspective, December corn futures are nearing key support at the contract low of $4.28. A break below that level could open the door to the low $4.20s. Resistance is seen between $4.40 and $4.45, but a move back above $4.35 would be the first step in challenging the downtrend.

Soybeans

Soybean futures remain under pressure, weighed down by profittaking and a sharp reversal in crude oil that spilled over into the soybean oil market. With no fresh bullish news, momentum has faded across the complex. Crop conditions held steady this week, with 66% of the U.S. soybean crop rated good to excellent — just one point behind last year. Planting is nearly complete at 96%, and while most key areas are now within the late insurance planting window, Kansas and Kentucky could see additional acres planted through June 30. From a technical standpoint, November soybean futures dipped back below the 20-day moving average near $10.40. The 50-day moving average near $10.36 remains a key support level that has held since mid-April.

Wheat

Winter wheat harvest advanced 9 points this week to 19% complete but remains well behind the five-year average of 28%. At the same time, national wheat conditions declined 3 points to 49% good to excellent. Despite the slower harvest and lower ratings, traders largely shrugged off the data, anticipating dry windows ahead to help harvest catch up. Yield potential is still seen as stable for now. On the technicals, both July Kansas City and Chicago wheat futures fell below their 100-day and 50-day moving averages on back-to-back sessions. Support now comes in at $5.18 for KC wheat and $4.22 for Chicago.

Cotton

In the June WASDE, USDA lowered the harvested acreage estimate by 2% to 8.19 million acres. The national average yield was reduced more than 1 percent from last month to 820 lbs/acre. This is all due to excessive moisture throughout the Delta, including Arkansas. This cut the production estimate by 500,000 bales to 14 million. In addition to the cut in production, beginning stocks were reduced by 400,000 bales due to an increase in exports for 2024/25. This resulted in a 900,000 bale reduction in 2025/26 ending stocks to 4.3 million bales. The season-average on-farm price, however, was unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound. 64% of the Arkansas crop is in good to excellent condition according to USDA, and only 21% of the crop is squaring, compared with a 5-year average of 40%. Futures prices continue to consolidate in a mostly sideways pattern with December holding between support at 66.50 cents and resistance at 69 cents. The market has rallied in recent days, led by July, but December will need to close above that resistance at 69 cents to escape the consolidation pattern

Livestock and Poultry

The June WASDE lowered the U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2025. The beef production forecast, however, was the only one to decline thanks to reduced slaughter totals. Pork production was unchanged and broiler production was increased on recent production and hatchery data. The egg production forecast was lowered due to the recent discovery of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in commercial laying flocks. Cattle, hog, and broiler price forecasts were raised on current price strength and strong demand.

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