Beef prices remain near record highs, primarily due to historically low cattle inventories. While these high prices provide short-term optimism for ranchers selling calves, they also raise broader questions about how and when the nation’s herd will be rebuilt.
There was speculation that the federal government was considering financial assistance for heifer replacements. However, USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins later clarified that no funds will be made available for such a program at this time.
That idea quickly drew attention from cattle producers and economists, sparking debate over how markets could be impacted if a federal incentive program were ever introduced.
Prices are the market’s way of balancing supply and demand. Today’s recordhigh beef prices already indicate that rebuilding herds could be profitable. If federal dollars were introduced, those buyers receiving federal aid would then gain additional purchasing power, allowing producers to pay more for replacement heifers. This would likely push heifer prices even higher, beyond what supply and demand alone would dictate.
Higher replacement costs affect more than just the price of heifers; they also shape the pace of herd expansion. Government assistance would likely accelerate or enlarge purchases beyond what the market would normally sustain. As more heifers are retained and expansion occurs at a faster-thannormal rate, the likelihood of oversupply increases.
An oversupply would result in a surge of calves entering the market, potentially driving prices lower. This reflects the traditional cattle cycle: high prices encourage expansion; expansion overshoots demand and prices eventually decline.
The concern is that introducing outside aid during a period of already strong prices could amplify this cycle and create volatility more quickly than producers are able to adjust.
Continued on page 2
Small Family Farms, the Root of American Agriculture, Page 2
Arkansas Farm Bureau Staff Participates in Farm Tours, Page 3
FEDERAL AID PROPOSALS AND CATTLE MARKETS
Just as high prices encourage expansion, low prices discourage it. When cattle prices are depressed, it’s often because supply has outpaced demand. If government aid encourages continued production in the face of oversupply, it can prolong the imbalance and delay recovery.
At the same time, extraordinary events outside the control of producers can overwhelm normal market corrections. Severe drought, processing plant disruptions, natural disasters or foreign animal disease can create short-term conditions that threaten the stability of the industry. In these rare instances, temporary government assistance may be warranted to stabilize markets and ensure the long-term viability of producers, while preventing lasting market distortions.
This discussion is particularly important because Arkansas is primarily a cow-calf state, with the average herd size being fewer than 50 head. These smaller farms often operate with tighter margins and less flexibility. If the cost of replacements climbs due to added competition from subsidized buyers, it could be harder for smaller producers to participate in herd rebuilding. That creates challenges for farms that are already more vulnerable to market swings. While no funds are currently being offered, this debate is a reminder of how sensitive cattle markets are to outside intervention. Market signals alone are already driving decisions about herd rebuilding. Understanding how federal programs might influence those signals helps producers weigh risks and opportunities in their own operations. Farm Bureau is a member-driven organization. Our role is to share analysis and information so members are equipped Continued from page 1
SMALL FAMILY FARMS, THE ROOTS OF AMERICAN AGRICULTURE
When people are asked what a “small farm” is, they may base their answer on the number of acres or number of animals a farm has – and they often assume that there aren’t many of them. However, small, family owned farms continue to dominate the makeup of American farms and ranches across the country.
USDA considers any place that has at least $1,000 of agricultural product sales as a farm. The Census of Agriculture reports 25% of farms with no sales in any year, and 30% with less than $10,000 in sales. Regardless, these farms are important community members and may be contributing to the local food system. With such variation in farm size and structure nationwide, USDA considers small farms as those with
less than $350,000 of gross cash farm income (GCFI), regardless of whether the owner’s primary job is farming.
Small family farms remain the roots of American agriculture, not only because they represent the overwhelming majority of farm operations, but also because they embody the resilience and determination that keep rural communities thriving. Yet, farming at any size or scale is cost-intensive, yet rising input prices, thin margins, global competition and limited access to new technologies put significant pressure on small farms. Read more about the latest snapshot on small family farms here.
ARKANSAS FARM BUREAU STAFF FARM TOURS
The final Arkansas Farm Bureau (ArFB) staff farm tour of the year took team members to Marianna, where they visited the McClendon, Mann and Felton Gin and Delta Peanut to learn about the processing of cotton and peanuts. The tour concluded at Stiles Farm, where staff had the opportunity to witness the cotton and peanut harvest in action.
Staff farm tours were implemented in 2024 to allow ArFB team members to gain a greater insight and understanding of the work farmers and ranchers do across Arkansas.
ARKANSAS FARM TRAIL EXPANDS, OPENS APPLICATIONS FOR SECOND SEASON
The Arkansas Farm Trail passport program will expand in 2026 with more farms across the state. For farmers hoping to join the effort connecting consumers with Arkansas agriculture, applications are open through Oct. 17.
The Arkansas Farm Trail gives visitors a hands-on experience at local farms to shop for Arkansas-grown products and learn the stories behind their food. Shoppers carry a Farm Trail passport, collecting stamps at farms when they make purchases. The more stamps collected, the bigger the prize package.
“The farm trail launch was a huge success, both for farmers and for families exploring Arkansas agriculture,” said John McMinn, director of commodity activities and economics at Arkansas Farm Bureau. “We’re excited to build on that momentum, expand the program and help even more farmers reach new customers.”
Benefits for farmers include free statewide marketing, promotional materials like signage and displays, and visibility driving on-farm sales. The program is open to Arkansas farms that sell local foods such as fruits, vegetables, grains animal products and more. To qualify, farms must sell from a dedicated structure like a farm stand, shop, barn or storefront on their farm.
Participation is free with an Arkansas Farm Bureau membership, but space is limited. Selection will be based on factors like regional diversity and products. Farmers can find more information and apply here.
MARKET NEWS
as of October 1, 2025
Contact Brandy Carroll brandy.carroll@arfb.com
Tyler Oxner tyler.oxner@arfb.com
Rice
Rice futures are trading at six-year lows. The November contract has violated previous support at $11.15 and is now testing support at $11. Carryover stocks are up 35% year over year, marking the largest August rice stocks in nearly 40 years. Export demand is slow, with India undercutting prices and expecting a large crop again this year thanks to beneficial conditions during their monsoon season. In fact, in the most recent supply/demand report, exports were lowered by 3 million cwt, all from the long-grain category, on uncompetitive prices and the slow pace of sales. The net result of the report was an increase of 8.7 million cwt in ending stocks, which are now pegged at 53.4 million cwt. The 202526 season average on-farm price was lowered by $1.00 from the August report and is now expected to be $12.00/cwt for long grain rice.
Corn
December corn futures have been unable to gain significant footing, slipping back toward recent lows under $4.20 after failing to hold above the 20-day moving average at $4.22. The medium-term bearish target is the 50-day moving average near $4.14, while primary resistance remains at the 100-day moving average at $4.23. USDA’s Crop Progress Report showed 71% of the crop mature as of Sept. 28, slightly behind the five-year average. The USDA released its latest estimates of stocks as of Sept. 1, taking a look back at the 2024-25 season. A slight increase was expected from the
recent WASDE estimates, but all totaled corn ending stocks for 202425 are the lowest in four years.
Soybeans
November soybean futures remain rangebound, holding between recent lows near $10.06 and resistance at $10.13. After last month’s sharp decline on Chinese demand concerns, the market has steadied, with bargain buying emerging near the bottom of the range. Early harvest reports point to disappointing yields in parts of the eastern and southern Corn Belt following late-season dryness. However, the bearish argument remains that without a deal with China, the loss of export demand will more than offset realistic production decline expectations. Time will tell on that but reports that China is almost bought up for November soybean needs are certainly concerning.
Wheat
Wheat futures posted new contract lows in all three classes before rebounding to finish near unchanged. The 20-day moving average for Kansas City futures at $5.10 once again capped any further rally attempts. Chicago wheat futures have been fractionally lower while Minneapolis spring wheat futures finished higher. While weekly export sales have improved and have been strong overall this marketing year, global competition remains heavy and continues to pressure values. Technical indicators suggest downside may be limited, though the market has yet to find a firm bottom. For now, wheat’s direction remains closely tied to corn.
Cotton
Cotton futures continue to trend lower. December had found support at 65.80 cents, but violated that support in a huge outside trading day on Monday, moving to new multi-year lows and trading below 65 cents by Wednesday. The next
downside objective for bears is the December contract low of 64.24 cents. Weak demand is the driving factor in the market, completely overshadowing any concerns about the crop, with weekly net cotton sakes down 54% from the previous four-week average and China noticeably absent from the market. Harvest pressure will also continue to limit the upside potential of the market.
Cattle
Cattle futures continue to trend higher, trading just below recordhigh prices set in August. Last week, Mexico reported a case of New World Screwworm infestation had been discovered 70 miles south of the U.S. border, which initially led to increased prices. Futures have backed off those levels. The October live cattle contract has support between $228 and $229. Both live and feeder contracts appear to have put in a significant top in August, but the market is still trending higher overall and there is no sign the bull-market is over. Support from supply-side concerns as marketings have been low in recent months continues to buoy prices.
Hogs
Hog futures are also trending higher. Firm cash hog and wholesale pork prices have been supportive. The recent Hogs and Pigs report released last week was also solidly bullish. Estimates were lower than expected across the board. Both current supplies and farrowing intentions indicate that the tight supply situation will continue. The June-August pig crop was only 97.4% of the previous years’ crop, and the breeding herd was 98.2% of the previous year.
