AUSTIN MARKET REPORT 4Q 2016
2
AQUILA KNOWS AUSTIN
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VIEW FROM THE
EAGLE'S NEST The future is a funny thing, and trying to predict it is even funnier. A couple weeks ago, a news article hit my inbox titled "2017 Set to be Strong Year for Greater Austin Housing Market"1. One day later I received another with the headline "2017 Could Bring Slower Growth for Austin’s Housing Market"2. Both articles cite the same “expert” speaker from the same event, yet they came away
Clayton Schleimer
with quite disparate outlooks.
Market Research Analyst
Unfortunately, I lost my crystal ball
AQUILA Commercial
in my move down to Austin from
schleimer@aquilacommercial.com
the Dallas-Fort Worth area several years ago, so I can’t tell you exactly what the future holds for the Austin office market, but luckily neither can anyone else. All we can do is look at the historical trends and current statistics to draw our own conclusions.
4
VIEW FROM THE EAGLE'S NEST Looking back on 2016, Austin’s office market had quite
Following Thomas Properties Group’s aggressive play in
an impressive year. All fundamentals pointed in a positive
2007, asking rental rates downtown went from an average
direction, with almost 700,000 sf of space delivered and
of 20% higher than suburban rates to 35% during their
1.75 million sf absorbed over the past twelve months.
nearly six-year dominance of downtown (see chart on
Vacancy rates dipped below 10%, and average asking full
adjacent page).
service rental rates are knocking on the door of the $35/sf mark – the highest in the state of Texas and the 7th highest in the country.
The dynamics of Austin were undoubtedly different in 2007 than they are now, and the increase in downtown rental rates from 2007 to 2013 cannot solely be attributed to one
Since the end of the Great Recession, Austin has
landlord. Access to capital was much looser leading up
continuously
to the Great Recession, bringing a surplus of new product
posted
some
of
the
healthiest
office
online – especially in the suburban markets. In the past
fundamentals in the country. Despite these robust metrics, Austin is still primarily thought of as a second-tier market on a national level. While Austin may be making a strong case to enter the big leagues and
couple years there has been a healthier supply of new office space with respect to demand compared to the prerecession days.
is starting to compete with larger markets for investment
There were also fewer nearby alternatives to downtown.
dollars, some skeptics are wondering if we’re in the closing
The Eastside, for example, would not have even been
innings of the latest boom.
considered by large tenants ten years ago. These days, some
One player who is confident in the future of Austin is Cousins Properties. Following their recent merger with Parkway
tenants and landlords are willing to pay a premium to be on the Eastside to be in on the hip and trendy revitalization
Properties, Cousins is now the owner of four of Austin’s
of the area. In 2016, Los Angeles-based CIM Group made
premier downtown office properties, accounting for 16% of
a big play buying Eastside Village at a price per square
the total Class A office inventory in the CBD submarket. The
foot that rivals Class A properties in the more established
last time a single owner had this much control of a submarket
Northwest
in Austin was in 2007 when Thomas Properties Group
Oracle’s 625,000-sf campus under construction just south
acquired roughly 20% of the downtown Class A stock.
of Lady Bird Lake will further shape the landscape east of
and
Southwest
submarkets.
Additionally,
PERCENT CHANGES: 2011 TO 2016 (Source: CoStar) Asking Rental Rate
Vacancy Rate
Market Size
Employment
Austin
31%
4.1%
9%
19%
USA
14%
2.6%
1%
8%
VIEW FROM THE EAGLE'S NEST
Average Class A Asking Rates Market CBD
$50.00
Citywide Suburban
$45.00
$40.00
Asking Rate
$35.00 $30.00
$25.00
$20.00
$15.00 $10.00
$5.00 $0.00 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Numbers based on CBRE statistics
CBD
Citywide
Suburban
I-35. Historically thought of as an inconvenient yet cheaper
Overall, the general appetite for office space in Austin
place for college students to live, young talent has already
seems to lean towards newer product. With such limited
begun flooding Riverside Drive – a phenomenon which
options for large blocks of space available throughout
could spark the interest of tenants and office developers
the city – particularly downtown – preleasing activity is
alike in the years ahead.
strong among both under construction and proposed projects
Furthermore, the Domain was still in its infancy and not quite yet seen as Austin’s “second downtown.” Having
with almost 50% of the square feet under construction spoken for.
proven itself as a viable contender to cater to the young,
This high demand has garnered the attention of
techy demographic that Austin is known for, some tenants
sophisticated investors from around the country and the
like Facebook and WeWork are now drastically expanding
globe, making Austin less and less of a “small town.” While
their operations to the area. Expect to see other large
no one can definitively tell you what the future holds for the
tenants occupy the Domain in the next couple years as
city, historical trends and the current state of the market
the Domain is about to double its office space with
point to another exciting year in 2017.
the potential kick-off of projects like Domain Tower and Domain 11 & 12.
¹Navoy, S. "2017 Set to be Strong Year for Greater Austin Housing Market" <http://keyetv.com/news/local/2017-set-to-be-strong-year-for-greater-austin-housing-market> ²Hasan, S. "2017 Could Bring Slower Growth for Austin’s Housing Market" <http://kut.org/post/2017-could-bring-slower-growth-austins-housing-market>
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SPECIAL REPORT
BUYING INTO AUSTIN: IS IT TOO LATE? The Austin commercial real estate market has been on a tear since the dark days of the Great Recession. In a half decade, the city has seen over five million square feet of office space delivered and sales prices per square foot more than double. Institutional investors are also starting to buy into what Austin has to offer. Over the past three years, Austin has seen a noticeable increase in institutional capital entering the market1. In fact, in 2016 institutional investors made up 41% of all transactions in terms of dollar value, and institutional-grade assets saw a 30% increase in transaction volume2. Even with strong market indicators, the cyclical nature of real estate and the threat of rising interest rates is causing the question of sustainability in the Austin market to become commonplace. In this report, we take a look into capital markets and leasing trends to determine whether investing in commercial real estate in Austin will continue to provide attractive returns for investors.
Institutional investor is defined as investors such as hedge funds, investment banks, life insurance companies, pension funds, etc. who typically deploy capital into assets worth at least $40 million. 1
2
Source: Real Capital Analytics
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SPECIAL REPORT THE FUNDAMENTALS
of an investment. Factors such as rental, vacancy and
When aggregating cap rates for multiple transactions
overall desirability, and the likelihood that the market
in a given market and time period, a snap-shot of
will continue to be “hot” or “cold” cannot. The closest we
overall investor sentiment towards that market can
can get to measuring such values is to look at the market
be achieved as it relates to the overall investment
value, or the amount of money someone is willing to pay
universe. The closer a market’s average cap rate is to a
for the opportunity to realize the potential benefits of the
low-risk investment metric, such as the 10-year treasury
future desirability of an investment. So let’s take a look at
yield, the more confident investors are that investing in
the dynamics of the Austin investment scene3.
employment rates can be measured, while geography,
that market will provide them suitable returns for their portfolio.
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
Large, core markets such as New York and San Francisco have substantially lower cap rates than
For this analysis, we picked a competitive set of markets
smaller markets where there is greater opportunity
to compare to Austin: including San Francisco, New
for return. In terms of downside risk and net dollars
York, San Jose, Seattle, Los Angeles, Boston, Nashville
returned, investing in these smaller markets might not
and Raleigh.
make sense to investors – especially sophisticated
In terms of average sales price, Austin currently ranks
institutional investors who are looking to deploy large
towards the bottom of this list, with an average sales
amounts of capital into core assets.
price of $309/sf, beating out only Raleigh ($165/
So, where does the Austin office market fit into this
sf) and Nashville ($185/sf), with the nationwide
matrix of investments? There are many factors that
average sales price at $250/sf 4.
come into play when determining whether a market
New York and San Francisco properties are trading
is worth investing in. Cap rates are just the tip of
at the highest values, coming in at $451/sf and
the iceberg when it comes to measuring the value
$578/sf, respectively.
Not surprisingly,
Average Sales Prices ($/sf) Average Sales Prices ($/sf)
$600
San Francisco
$550
$500
New York
$450 San Jose
$400
Boston $350
Seattle
$300
Los Angeles Austin
$250
USA
$200 Nashville Raleigh
$150
$100
$50 $0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Real Capital Analytics
9
Austin
Raleigh
Los Angeles
San Jose
New York
Nashville
Seattle
Boston
San Francisco
USA
2016
2017
SPECIAL REPORT In terms of recent growth over time, however, Austin blows the other markets out of the water. Going back to 2011, when commercial real estate activity started to pick back up following the end of the Great Recession, Austin sales prices per square foot have increased by over 200%, going from an average of $99/sf5 in 2Q 2011 to the $300/ sf+ we see today. The only other market to more than double over the same time period is San Francisco, which leapt from $231/sf to $578/sf. % Difference in Average Sales Price ($/sf) % Difference in Average Sales Price ($/sf) Austin
200% 180% 160%
San Francisco
140% 120% 100% 80%
San Jose
60% Boston New York Los Angeles Nashville USA Seattle
40% 20% 0% -20%
Raleigh
-40% -60% 2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: Real Capital Analytics
Historically, the average value of Austinâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s sales have been on par with or below the national average. Then, in 2011, sales prices began a very steady march upwards, surpassing the national average in 2014 and today almost 25% higher. Despite this dramatic increase, cap rates in Austin have remained relatively flat over the past three years. Average Cap RatesRates Average Cap 9.00%
8.00% Nashville 7.00%
USA Austin Raleigh Seattle Los Angeles New York
6.00%
Boston San Jose San Francisco
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
10-Year Treasury Yield
2.00%
1.00%
0.00% 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Real Capital Analytics and U.S. Department of the Treasury
For a list of assumptions maintained in this analysis, see the end of the report.
3
Source: Real Capital Analytics
4
Since Austin was coming back from a great recession, most of the purchases were from foreclosures, which explains why this number was so low in 2011.
5
10
SPECIAL REPORT MEASURING THE HEALTH OF A MARKET Much like there are many ways to determine the health of any investment, there are many ways to measure the health of a market. Employment rates, GDP and inflation are all very useful metrics in determining the strength of an economy, but these do not fully capture the commercial real estate behavior. When looking at common commercial real estate leasing metrics such as rental rates, vacancy rates, absorption, etc., it is difficult to compare markets to one another, as each market’s quarterly performance is viewed relative to its historical trends, market size, etc. For our analysis, we want to measure the health of a market’s commercial real estate industry from a potential investor’s perspective by combining leasing and sales metrics to create an overall “Health Index.” For our purposes, we defined the Health Index as the ratio of rent being paid to the rent not being paid in a specific market. To measure the rent being paid in a market, we took the implied net operating income for the sales of the market, multiplied by the occupied square feet. To measure the rent not being paid in a market, we multiplied the total vacant square feet by the average asking rental rate.
Health Index
=
Income Generated Income Not Generated
=
≈
Implied Avg NOI × Occupied SF Vacant SF × Avg Asking Rental Rate
Avg Cap Rate × Avg Sales Price × Occupied SF Vacant SF × Avg Asking Rental Rate
While these are not scientific measurements, it can be a useful tool to compare markets, look at trends over time and normalize demand across markets of varying sizes. The Health Index attempts to measure investment opportunity by combining investor sentiments with the leasing environment. If a market has a high Health Index rating, it can be attributed to factors such as high NOI, high occupancy and/or high rental rates. When you have a high Health Index, in most cases, it’s because all of these factors are moving in sync. So, how does Austin stack up against its competitors in terms of health? Very well. In fact, it has been the “healthiest” for the last eight quarters. The Health Index on the next page also helps visualize worst-case scenarios. If there were a nation-wide economic collapse where employment growth went to zero and investors were caught with their pants at their ankles because there would be no new demand for space in their properties, those with holdings in Austin would be in the best situation given the relationship between low vacancy rates and high average implied NOI. If an investor was holding a 100,000 sf property in New York at 10% vacant with no demand for that vacant space, they would virtually be losing $638,800 per year of possible income on that vacant space – a space for which they paid roughly $500/sf.
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SPECIAL REPORT In Austin, however, a 100,000–sf property costing roughly $300/sf at 10% vacant and no possibility of leasing would only be losing the investor $237,800 per year6. In other words, an investor choosing New York over Austin would have paid roughly 1.6 times as much to lose 2.6 times as much as the investor who chose Austin.
Health Index
Health Index Austin
11
Nashville 10 San Francisco 9
Seattle
8
7
San Jose
6
Boston
5
New York
Raleigh
4 Los Angeles 3
2
1 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: Real Capital Analytics and CBRE Econometric Advisors
LOOKING BACK TO SEE FORWARD: WILL AUSTIN REMAIN HEALTHY? When looking at the health index above, one of the most obvious questions is how sustainable is Austin’s health? Will Austin’s health trajectory follow that of New York’s in 2008, or has Austin already seen its peak? While nearly every market’s health suffered during the last recession, New York never bounced back as much in recent years as other markets after being near or at the top every quarter prior to the recession. From a fundamental point of view, the driving factor of New York’s lack of rebound can be attributed to a supply and demand issue: there was too much product being delivered in relationship to employment growth. From 2009 to 2015, the employment growth in New York was among the lowest among this competitive set of markets in terms of percentage change – increasing just 7.5% over the seven-year period. Meanwhile, Austin’s employment growth has been the highest among the competitive set, increasing by more than 30% since 2009. The chart on the next page illustrates that Austin has added the least amount of office space (supply) relative to employees added (demand).
Calculations based on current market conditions according to Real Capital Analytics and CBRE Econometric Advisors
6
12
SPECIAL REPORT % Difference in NRA (Net Rentable Area) per Employed Person Since 2009 % Difference in NRA per Employeed Person since 2009
6%
4%
2%
0% Seattle
-2%
-4%
New York Boston
-6%
San Jose Los Angeles
-8%
-10%
San Francisco
-12%
Nashville
-14%
Raleigh
Austin
-16% 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Austinâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s conservative growth in office supply over the past seven years plays an important role in the overall investment scene as well. Institutional capital typically represents a likely source of investment in new office product upon stabilization. As new buildings are typically anchored by long term leases with good credit tenants, these projects trade at relatively low cap rates. Limited new construction has yielded limited opportunity to invest in this corner of our market and could be a contributing factor to cap rates sustaining their relatively higher levels. This extreme growth in employment relative to market size further sets Austin apart from its peers in coming years. As employees and employers expand or migrate their operations from the coasts to the more business-friendly state of Texas, employment will continue to provide ample opportunity for commercial real estate investments in the area. Furthermore, when compared to its in-state rivals of Dallas, Houston and San Antonio by the folks on the coasts, Austin is often desirable for relocations because of its unique culture and geographical features. Barring an economic downturn â&#x20AC;&#x201C; and so long as owners, developers and lenders continue to proceed as cautiously as they have in recent years â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the tightening of the market squeezing rents upwards should continue to bring great value to investors. Increasing rental rates brought about by high occupancy levels should continue to provide solid returns to investors, and continue to make Austin an attractive increment market that is not too late to buy into.
ASSUMPTIONS 1. Investor allocations are consistent This analysis assumes that overall investor sentiment towards commercial real estate remains consistent with historical trends. That is to say that there is not more or less investment dollars flowing into or out of commercial real estate and into other investment forms. This ensures that, looking forward, values are not inflated or deflated due to an economy-wide shift in demand for commercial real estate. Furthermore, this assumption ensures that there are ample transactions occurring in the market to encapsulate overall market trends and investor sentiments.
13
2. Access to capital is consistent One of the primary drivers of commercial real estate transactions is the accessibility investors have to capital from financial institutions. If commercial real estate loans dry up nation-wide, then transactions will become sparser, or market values will be skewed due to an abnormal lack of capital. For example, in the last economic downturn from 2008 to 2012, there were not enough transactions recorded in Austin to surmise any sort of market-wide trends due to an essential halt in banksâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; appetites for providing commercial real estate financing. This analysis assumes the demand for commercial real estate on a national or global level does not shift towards other vehicles such as stocks and bonds on a level that will affect all commercial real estate markets moving forward. 3. Inflation remains steady The return on an investment is only as good (or bad) as its relative ability to purchase or invest in goods at the time of sale. Real estate offers some protection against inflation as rental rates provide increased cash flow in a highinflationary period. However, this affects cap rates as well, as the numerator (Net Operating Income) could increase disproportionately to the value at which an asset will be sold. Given these assumptions, the primary driver of market values in this analysis is the supply/demand dynamic of each market.
14
AUSTIN CITYWIDE 4Q UPDATE 491,623 SF Net Absorption
9.20%
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
$38.84
Avg. Class A Full Service Rental Rate
15
SNAPSHOT:
CAPITAL MARKETS MAJOR SALES TRANSACTIONS DOMAIN 2 & 7
SOLD
SOLD
823 CONGRESS
SOLD
EXCHANGE PARK
Market
Northwest
Market
CBD
Market
Northwest
Class
A
Class
B
Class
B
Size (SF)
337,000
Size (SF)
181,381
Size (SF)
153,123
Buyer
TIER REIT
Buyer
Brickman
Buyer
Seamless Capital
Seller
Shorenstein
Seller
Cielo Property Group
Seller
Equity Commonwealth
Price
$153,335,000
Price
$62,939,207
Price
$29,200,000
Price/SF
$455
Price/SF
$347
Price/SF
$191
SOLD
PECAN PARK
SOLD
THE ESCALADE
Market
Northwest
Market
Southwest
Class
A
Class
A
Size (SF)
136,444
Size (SF)
115,039
Buyer
Mark IV Capital
Buyer
Wedge Commercial
Seller
Equus Capital Partners
Seller
TA Realty
Price
$33,565,224
Price
$25,000,000
Price/SF
$246
Price/SF
$217
SOLD
ONE ELEVEN
SAN JACINTO
SOLD CENTER
Market
CBD
Market
CBD
Class
A
Class
A
Size (SF)
548,823
Size (SF)
410,248
Buyer
Cousins Properties
Buyer
Cousins Properties
Seller
Parkway Properties
Seller
Parkway Properties
One Eleven
16
MAJOR LEASES SIGNED Leases signed this quarter over 20,000 sf:
CBD • Capital Factory renewed for 56,703 sf in Austin Centre early in October. This early renewal makes them the second largest tenant in the building behind Netspend, as Capital Factory now occupies the 16th, 5th and part of the first floor.
• CBRE signed for 21,688 sf on the 17th floor of 500 West 2nd. Currently occupying roughly 20,000 sf on the 5th floor at 100 Congress, their existing space is one of the largest and most expensive contiguous spaces coming available downtown in 2017.
• One more floor of Shoal Creek Walk was taken off the market this quarter as Cirrus Logic signed for the 10th floor bringing the Schlosser Development project to 66% preleased. Cirrus Logic will move into roughly 100,00 sf – almost half the building – on the 6th through 10th floors upon delivery in the third quarter of 2017.
NORTHWEST • In the biggest lease of the quarter, eBay renewed for 214,691 sf at 7700 Parmer, Building D, making them the sole tenant in the building.
• HomeAway (Expedia) and Visa each took a floor of Charles Schwab’s sublease at Research Park Plaza IV early in November. HomeAway took one floor for 49,312 sf while Visa took another 48,167 sf. Charles Schwab, who has been in Research Park Plaza for more than ten years, continues to move employees into its new campus adjacent to the Domain.
• Informatica signed for nearly 43,000 sf at Paloma Ridge Building B. Delivered a year ago, this lease brings one of the submarket’s newest buildings to 65% leased (Building A still sits 32% leased). Informatica’s previous space at Aspen Lake One (35,824 sf) is now being marketed for sublease and direct occupancy.
17
ALL MAJOR LEASES SIGNED Tenant
Property Name
Submarket
SF
Transaction Type
eBay
7700 Parmer Ln
Northwest
214,691
Renewal/Expansion
Indeed
Reserve at Bull Creek
Northwest
88,000
New
Capital Factory
Austin Center
CBD
56,703
Renewal
HomeAway
Research Park Plaza
Northwest
49,312
Sublease
Visa
Research Park Plaza
Northwest
48,167
Sublease
Informatica
Paloma Ridge Bldg 2
Northwest
42,996
New
Banker's Toolbox
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 3
Northwest
31,715
Expansion
Three Rivers Energy
5301 Southwest Parkway
Southwest
23,956
New
Netsuite
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 3
Northwest
22,963
Expansion
Intific
The Campus at Arboretum 4
Northwest
22,032
Renewal
CBRE
500 West 2nd
CBD
21,688
New
Cirrus Logic
Shoal Creek Walk
CBD
21,218
Expansion
Ovation Partners
Shoal Creek Walk
CBD
21,000
New
MongoDB
The Park on Barton Creek
Southwest
20,190
Renewal/Expansion
OFFICE SUBMARKET MAP: MAP: OFFICE SUBMARKET
Round Rock
Round Rock
Cedar Park
CBD
Cedar Park
Pflugerville Pflugerville
Lake Travis
McNeil
Lake Travis
Arboretum
Central
North
North Northwest
McNeil
Arboretum
CBD
Central
Domain
Southwest Northwest
Domain
South/Southeast
Southwest
East/Northeast
South/Southeast
Round Rock
East/Northeast
Tarrytown West Lake Hills
West Lake Hills
Round Rock
Austin
Tarrytown
Austin Sunset Valley
ABIA
Sunset Valley
ABIA
Buda
18
AUSTIN OFFICE
DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE This timeline shows office projects over 30,000 sf that have either broken ground or will be breaking ground soon.
2017
2018
1Q
1Q
The Diamond Building at Mueller
35,015 SF
East
The Station on Manor
31,600 SF
East
500 West 2nd
489,404 SF
CBD
Domain 8
195,230 SF
Northwest
2Q Galleria Oaks I & II
147,928 SF
Southwest
Walsh Tarlton Overlook
55,500 SF
Southwest
Lantana Ridge I & II
175,000 SF
Southwest
Fourth &
42,000 SF
East
3Q Domain Tower
308,000 SF
Northwest
University of Texas Systems
342,000 SF
CBD
Shoal Creek Walk
218,432 SF
CBD
The Overlook at Barton Creek
53,091 SF
Southwest
4Q Westview*
98,500 SF
CBD
MoPac Centre
95,863 SF
Northwest
801 Barton Springs
90,500 SF
South
Oracle Campus
625,000 SF
Southeast
*Already existing – coming to market 4Q 2017
19
Springdale General
165,000 SF
East
4Q Third + Shoal
338,279 SF
CBD
î&#x192;¡ PLANNED Future Developments
Future Developments
405 Colorado
195,511 SF
CBD
604 W 6th Street
31,035 SF
CBD
Austin American Statesman
TBD SF
CBD
Extended Stay Site
TBD SF
CBD
Travis Courthouse
TBD SF
CBD
Novare/Post Office
TBD SF
CBD
Waller Park Place
680,000 SF
CBD
Third + Shoal
338,279 SF
CBD
Velocity Credit Union
TBD SF
UT Office Site 901 E 6th
Four Points Centre, Phase II - Building 3
300,000 SF
Northwest
Amber Oaks Phase IV Buildings K, L, M
225,600 SF
Northwest
Quarry Oaks IV
160,000 SF
Northwest
Aspen Lake Three
128,700 SF
Northwest
Research Park Bldg 6
117,321 SF
Northwest
Paloma Ridge C
112,500 SF
Northwest
CBD
Four Points Centre, Phase II - Building 4
80,000 SF
Northwest
+/- 600,000 SF
CBD
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 1
65,000 SF
Northwest
132,000 SF
East
Riata Crossing Bldg 6
49,716 SF
Northwest
Canopy
40,200 SF
East
Frontera Ridge
400,000 SF
Northwest
Cityline at MLK
134,000 SF
East
St. Elmo
225,000 SF
South
Mueller Market District
2,000,000 SF
East
Regency Park
90,000 SF
Southwest
Plaza Saltillo
120,000 SF
East
Rollingwood Center III
107,000 SF
Southwest
The Foundry (310 Comal)
75,369 SF
East
Seven Oaks I & II
279,343 SF
Southwest
171,450 SF
Southwest
The Lakes at TechRidge Buildings A & B
97,600 SF
East
The Backyard Buildings B, J, & H
The Park at Mueller
116,000 SF
East
The Terrace 3
203,130 SF
Southwest
Preserve at 620
50,000 500,000 SF
Northwest
The Terrace 4
285,663 SF
Southwest
Frontera Ridge I & II
400,000 SF
Northwest
The Terrace 5
218,809 SF
Southwest
Domain 12
316,345 SF
Northwest
Upland Corporate Center Phase II
123,525 SF
Southwest
Domain 11
315,862 SF
Northwest
20
CBD SUBMARKET 4Q UPDATE BY BART MATHENEY | Principal, AQUILA Asset Services
2,908 SF Net Absorption
6.41%
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
$56.02
Avg. Class A Full Service Rental Rate 9th & Congress; Photo by Scott Mason Photography
21
CBD UPDATE
2016 closed with the first decrease in vacancy rates among Class A competitive set buildings since the fourth quarter of 2015, dropping just four basis points over the previous quarter from 6.45% to 6.41%. The majority of this decrease can be attributed to nearly 10,000 sf of sublease space being absorbed. Meanwhile, there are only about 6,500 more square feet directly vacant compared to the third quarter. These insignificant figures point to how tight
in roughly half the competitive set buildings1. Average operating expenses broke past $20/ sf, with Frost Bank Tower quoting the highest rate at $26.38. Two of the smallest and oldest buildings in the competitive set – Littlefield and Scarbrough – actually saw significant decreases in their new operating expense rates dropping by $2.16 and $2.45, respectively. These two buildings are also the only buildings in the competitive set to receive tax breaks due to their designation as historical landmarks.
the downtown market is right now. In fact, there were no new large leases signed this quarter in any existing buildings. The large leasing activity occurred in buildings currently under construction: Cirrus Logic took another floor in Shoal Creek Walk, where Ovation Partners also took a floor this quarter; and CBRE signed for part of the 17th floor at 500 West 2nd. Asking full service rates increased yet again for the 25th consecutive quarter – the longest streak in the eleven years we’ve been tracking the competitive set. Contributing significantly to this quarter’s increase was operating expenses, which are now reflective of their 2017 estimates
Third+Shoal Rendering; Courtesy of CoStar
22
CBD UPDATE
There are multiple entitled sites whose owners are vying for the chance to become Austin's next premier downtown office building.
In AQUILAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 4Q 2015 report, we reported that 5th + Colorado was 31% preleased and Shoal Creek Walk and 500 W 2nd were each 42% preleased. Since then, these three new downtown office buildings have gone from a combined 40% leased to 74% leased, accounting for over 300,000 sf of leasing activity between the three buildings. By comparison, in the other 21 competitive set buildings, there was just less than 400,000 sf of direct leasing activity in 20162. Given this information, new developments are the hottest commodity in downtown Austin. With over 1,600 multifamily units and nearly 2,000 hotel rooms under construction downtown, the area is poised for continued growth from a live/ work/play perspective. However, with only two office projects set to deliver in 2017 and with robust interest among tenants for the remaining 200,000 sf between them, the pressure is on for the next wave of developments to cater to the work aspect of the live/work/play equation. Third + Shoal appears to be the next building
23
out of the ground as they continue site work and are scheduled to go vertical in the first half of 2017. With strong activity on roughly 100,000 sf now, spaces are slated to be ready for TIs around mid-to-late 2018. Trammell Crow appears to be close behind with the last phase of Green Water getting set to launch in early 2018. 2017 is undoubtedly shaping up to be an interesting year in terms of new developments. As the hub of downtown continues to migrate south and west of the traditional epicenter of 6th and Congress, projects are being introduced in all directions, and there are multiple entitled sites whose owners are vying for the chance to become Austinâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s next premier downtown office building.
For the complete list of competitive set buildings and their corresponding availability and lease rates, see page 45 in the appendix. 1
2
Source: CoStar
CBD
COMPETITIVE SET PERFORMANCE CBD COMPETITIVE SET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
6,344,401
421,858
55,200
612,127
7.52%
$47.28
2015 Q2
6,466,952
479,092
40,409
80,108
8.03%
$47.74
2015 Q3
6,466,952
370,193
38,822
110,486
6.32%
$48.70
2015 Q4
6,471,834
237,718
55,748
120,431
4.53%
$52.03
2016 Q1
6,471,834
239,406
101,083
-47,023
5.26%
$52.80
2016 Q2
6,651,030
319,379
84,852
115,454
6.08%
$53.73
2016 Q3
6,650,834
331,435
97,862
-25,262
6.45%
$54.62
2016 Q4
6,650,834
337,907
88,482
2,908
6.41%
$56.02
*Absorption includes sublease space
NET ABSORPTION
600
12%
400
8%
4%
200
0
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
0%
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
16%
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
800
700
96%
600
95%
500
94%
400
93%
300
92%
200
91%
100
90%
0
89%
(100)
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Occupancy Rate
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
88%
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
$57
11%
$55
10%
$53
9%
$51
8%
$49
7%
$47
6%
$45
5%
$43
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY VS. RENTAL RATES
4%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
24
CBD DEVELOPMENT & LARGE AVAILABILITY
WES TVIE
W
OFFICE UNDER CONSTRUCTION HOTEL/RESIDENTIAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS EXISTING AVAILABILITIES
11th
Stre
SHO CRE AL E WA K LK
et
604 W. SIX TH
ar B Lam N.
t
RISE 8TH NUE + CES
EXT EN S TAY DED 5TH UT S SITE YST WES & EMS 300 T W EST END 6TH POS EAVOR / TO ALO FFIC FT E UT OF E IND THE LEM & FICE EPE ENT SITE NDE HOT NT EL Z GAB AZA/ THIR THE LES AUS SHO D + TRA TIN 4 A VIS PRO L COL 05 G COU PER O RAD RES REEN W RTH 500 IDEN O OUS WES TIAL ATER E T 2N TOW D NO ER RTH 301 SHO CON RE GRE SS
lvd.
5th
Stree
ON
6th S
treet
Bar
ton
Spr
ings
Rd.
801 BA SPR RTON ING S 25
EN
ress Ave .
Cesa r
Con g
S. 1
st Str eet
E EL EV
AU AM STIN E STA RICAN TESM AN
Cha
vez
St.
FAIR M HOT ONT EL
W PAR ALLER KP LAC E
70 RAI NEY
LARGE BLOCKS OF CONTIGUOUS AVAILABILITY
BRA CKE CAM NRIDG E PUS
VEL OCI UNI TY CRE D ON SITE IT
Building
Available SF
Max. Contiguous
300 West 6th
31,424 SF
29,952 SF
301 Congress
37,360 SF
20,591 SF
One Eleven
44,849 SF
23,142 SF
OFFICE PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION Building
Est. Delivery
% Preleased
Total SF
500 West 2nd
69%
500,436 SF
1Q 2017
Shoal Creek Walk
63%
218,432 SF
3Q 2017
UT Systems
95%
342,000 SF
3Q 2017
Westview
0%
98,500 SF
4Q 2017
801 Barton Springs
0%
90,500 SF
4Q 2017
Third + Shoal
0%
338,279 SF
4Q 2018
HOTEL/RESIDENTIAL UNDER CONSTRUCTION Building
Units/Rooms
Est. Delivery
Northshore
436 Units
1Q 2017
Rise â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 8th & Nueces
196 Units
1Q 2017
250 Rooms, 120 Units
2Q 2017
The Austin Proper Aloft & Element
422 Rooms
3Q 2017
1,066 Rooms
3Q 2017
5th & West
154 Units
4Q 2017
70 Rainey
164 Units
2Q 2017
The Independent
370 Units
3Q 2018
226 Units, 160 Rooms
TBD
Fairmont
Hotel Zaza/Gables
FUTURE/PLANNED DEVELOPMENTS Building
604 W 6th Street
Size/Units
Use
31,035 SF
Office
405 Colorado
195,511 SF
Office
Waller Park Place
680,000 SF
Office
Austin American Statesman
TBD
Office
Endeavor/Post Office
TBD
Office
Travis Courthouse
TBD
TBD
Extended Stay Site
TBD
Office
Green Water Residential Tower
TBD
Mixed Use
Brackenridge Campus
TBD
Medical
Velocity Credit Union Site UT Office Site
TBD
TBD
+/- 600,000 SF
Office
26
AVAILABILITY SUMMARY CBD CLASS A SUBLEASE SPACE AVAILABLE SPACE 32 31 30 29
29
28
12,085 SF
27
27
26
26
26
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
20
20
24 23 22 21
29,952 SF
20 19
1,472 SF
28
3,088 SF
22
22
21
21
32,603 SF
21
20
20
32,603 SF
20
19
19
33,932 SF
19
19
18
11,528 SF
18
18
18
18
10,134 SF
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
15
15
15
14
14
6,861 SF
1,388 SF
19
18
18
17
17
17
17
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
15
9,421 SF
15
14
14
14
14
23,798 SF
14
2,277 SF
14
13
13
13
13
13
3,754 SF
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
6,969 SF
10
10
10
10
10
10
5,297 SF
9
9
20,591 SF
9
9
9
9
9
9
2,809 SF
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
12,742
1,272
3
3
3
3
3
3
1,246 SF
2
2
19,912
2,962
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
7,887 SF
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2,893 SF
7,254
3,722
5,811 SF
6,432
6,858
1
16
4,571 SF
20,396 SF
17,400 SF
4,965 SF
4 10,559 SF
100 Congress 100 Congress Ave.
300 W 6th 300 W 6th St.
301 Congress 301 Congress Ave.
400 W 15th 400 W 15th St.
500 W 2nd 500 W 2nd St.
501 Congress 501 Congress Ave.
515 Congress 515 Congress Ave.
5th + Colorado 201 W 5th St.
600 Congress 600 Congress Ave.
411,536 SF 22 Floors 95% Leased $39.00-$40.00 NNN $22.69 Op/Ex $61.69 - $62.69 Gross
454,225 SF 23 Floors 93% Leased $38.00 NNN $25.78 Op/Ex $63.78 Gross
428,419 SF 22 Floors 91% Leased $34.00-35.00 NNN $22.52 Op/Ex $56.52-$57.52 Gross
281,196 SF 17 Floors 96% Leased $28.00 NNN $17.47 Op/Ex $45.47 Gross
500,436 SF 29 Floors 69% Pre-Leased $40.00 NNN $15.50 Op/Ex $55.50 Gross
122,551 SF 5 Floors 86% Leased $22.00 - $35.00 NNN $22.53 Op/Ex $44.53 - $57.53 Gross
258,176 SF 26 Floors 94% Leased $34.00 NNN $18.05 Op/Ex $52.05 Gross
179,000 SF 18 Floors 97% Leased $40.00 NNN $17.39 Op/Ex $57.39 Gross
503,951 SF 32 Floors 100% Leased $35.00 NNN $20.86 Op/Ex $55.86 Gross
27
Availability Summary
3
33 32 31 30
30
30
29
29
29
28
28
28
27
27
26
26
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
22
22
21
21
21
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
21,218 SF
14
14
14
10,218 SF
7,834 SF
27 26 25
11,061 SF
24
16
16
16
16
3,997 SF
15
15
15
15
3,325 SF
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
21,218 SF
11
11
11
11
11
11
21,218 SF
10
10
10
10
10
4,797 SF
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
23,142 SF
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
7
2,027 SF
11
7,322 SF
10 9
6,690 SF
8 7
3,663 SF
6,191 SF
16
701 SF
2,111 SF
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
6
3
10,821 SF
12,648 SF
11
14,328 SF
4,403 SF
1,318 SF
6 7,306 SF
5
816 Congress 816 Congress Ave.
Austin Centre 701 Brazos St.
Chase Tower 221 W 6th St.
Colorado Tower 303 Colorado St.
Frost Bank Tower 401 Congress Ave.
IBC Bank Plaza 500 W 5th St.
One Congress Plaza 111 Congress Ave.
San Jacinto Center 98 San Jacinto Blvd.
Shoal Creek Walk 835 W 6th St.
434,081 SF 20 Floors 96% Leased $32.00 - $35.00 NNN $17.59 Op/Ex $49.59 - $52.59 Gross
326,335 SF 16 Floors 90% Leased $28.50 NNN $19.92 Op/Ex $48.42 Gross
389,503 SF 21 Floors 99% Leased $37.00 NNN $19.85 Op/Ex $56.85 Gross
373,334 SF 30 Floors 100% Leased $34.00 NNN $16.83 Op/Ex $50.83 Gross
535,078 SF 33 Floors 96% Leased $38.00 -$43.00 NNN $26.38 Op/Ex $64.38 -$69.38 Gross
194,749 SF 13 Floors 100% Leased $35.00 NNN $23.50 Op/Ex $58.50 Gross
518,385 SF 30 Floors 91% Leased $35.00 -$37.00 NNN $18.15 Op/Ex $53.15 -$55.15 Gross
406,279 SF 21 Floors 100% Leased $36.00 NNN $23.73 Op/Ex $59.73 Gross
218,432 SF 14 Floors 66% Leased $32.00 -$36.00 NNN $16.50 Op/Ex $48.50 -$52.50 Gross
28
eBay extended and expanded its presence at 7700 Parmer in 4Q 2016; Photo by Third Eye Photography
NORTHWEST UPDATE
NORTHWEST SUBMARKET 4Q UPDATE BY CHAD BARRETT | Principal, AQUILA Asset Services
314,319 SF Net Absorption
10.12%
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
$35.99
Avg. Class A Full Service Rental Rate
The fourth quarter of 2016 was indicative of the strong year the Northwest office market experienced. In 4Q an impressive 314,319 sf of space was absorbed. Additionally, the vacancy rate for the competitive set of Northwest office buildings fell from 12.2% to 10.1% in the fourth quarter, marking a 186 basis-point decrease from just one year ago. Rental rate growth continued its steady trend upwards to a new all-time high of $35.99.
30
NORTHWEST UPDATE
All three micromarkets had significant leases signed in the closing months of the year. eBay extended and expanded its presence at 7700 Parmer in the Far Northwest. Indeed signed to reoccupy 88,000 sf on a short-term basis in the Shepherd Mountain area as it explores potential sites for an expansion in excess of 750,000 sf in the Northwest market. And, of course, the Domain continues to be the most sought-after northwest location as all of the new product has been spoken for, with large deals done recently by Facebook, Amazon, HomeAway (Expedia) and WeWork. Large leases like these point to the entire area being a hotbed for large technology companies looking to recruit the Austin-area talent.
Due to its extraordinary demand, several new projects have either been started or announced in the Domain area, including Stonelake Capital and HPIâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Domain Tower (300,000 sf) and Domain 11 & 12 (600,000 sf) by TIER REIT and Endeavor, which appear to be close to breaking ground soon. The hubbub surrounding the Domain of late resulted in the purchase of Domain 2 & 7 by TIER REIT at an impressive suburban price of $455/sf. With limited product set to deliver in 2017 and barring any significant downturn in the economy, the Northwest office market should continue to favor landlords.
Round Rock Cedar Park
FAR NORTHWEST/ ROUND ROCK PďŹ&#x201A;ugerville
Lake Travis
McNeil
Arboretum
Domain
SHEPHERD MOUNTAIN/ 2222
ARBORETUM/ DOMAIN
West Lake Hills
Tarrytown
Austin NORTHWEST MICROMARKETS
31
NORTHWEST
COMPETITIVE SET PERFORMANCE NORTHWEST COMPETITIVE SET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
12,931,909
992,194
292,334
319,783
9.93%
$33.39
2015 Q2
13,120,924
897,199
284,035
292,309
9.00%
$33.83
2015 Q3
13,634,732
1,453,835
287,248
-46,041
12.77%
$33.40
2015 Q4
14,156,083
1,460,249
235,206
566,979
11.98%
$34.14
2016 Q1
15,142,863
1,422,335
395,496
864,404
12.00%
$35.14
2016 Q2
15,142,863
1,471,413
425,470
-79,052
12.53%
$35.44
2016 Q3
15,142,863
1,363,757
483,190
49,936
12.20%
$35.72
2016 Q4
15,142,863
1,238,333
294,295
314,319
10.12%
$35.99
*Absorption includes sublease space
NET ABSORPTION 12%
1,200
9%
800
6%
400 0
3%
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
1,000
0%
95%
800
93%
600
91%
400
89%
200
87%
0
85%
(200)
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Occupancy Rate
15%
1,600
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
2,000
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
83%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
Net Abs orption*
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
$37
15%
$36
14%
$35
13%
$34
12%
$33
11%
$32
10%
$31
9%
$30
2014 Q4
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY VS. RENTAL RATES
8%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
32
CEDAR PARK
ROUND ROCK
4
3
PFLUGERVILLE 7
13
10 14
18 9
22
LAKE TRAVIS
21 19
8
1
2
ARBORETUM 12
15
DOMAIN
17
SHEPHERD MOUNTAIN
6
11
20
16
5
NORTHWEST AUSTIN LARGE OFFICE AVAILABILITY 20,000 SF + of available space
Building
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Total Available SF
1
Broadmoor 906
144,249
0
144,249
2
Braker Pointe III
131,404
0
131,404
3
Paloma Ridge A
103,368
0
4
Paloma Ridge B
81,101
5
Austin Oaks
60,338
6
Lakewood Center I
45,620
7
Amber Oaks J
8
Park Centre Bldg 3
9
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 8
10
Research Park Place 7
11
The Park at 8300 N. MoPac
33
Building
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Total Available SF
12
River Place Corporate Park II
21,306
16,662
37,968
13
Aspen Lake One
0
36,038
36,038
103,368
14
Research Park Place 8
33,518
0
33,518
0
81,101
15
Domain 3
0
33,390
33,390
1,248
61,586
16
Atrium Office Centre
32,952
0
32,952
10,182
55,802
17
Lakewood on the Park B
29,324
0
29,324
21,311
33,147
54,458
18
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 2
7,054
21,148
28,202
45,711
0
45,711
19
Park Centre Bldg 1
24,305
3,279
27,584
0
45,457
45,457
20
Bridgepoint Square 4
15,330
10,328
25,658
1,393
40,279
41,672
21
Prominent Pointe I
25,204
0
25,204
38,869
0
38,869
22
Lakeview Plaza
9,276
15,344
24,620
NORTHWEST AUSTIN OFFICE DEVELOPMENT Building
Total SF
Percent Preleased
Estimated Delivery
Status
1
Domain 8
195,230
94%
2017 Q1
Under Construction
2
Domain Tower
308,000
0%
2017 Q3
Under Construction
3
MoPac Centre
4
Preserve at 620
5
95,863
0%
2017 Q4
Under Construction
50,000 - 500,000
0%
Planned
Planned
Frontera Ridge I & II
400,000
0%
Planned
Planned
6
Domain 12
316,345
0%
Planned
Planned
7
Domain 11
315,862
0%
Planned
Planned
8
Four Points Centre, Phase II - Building 3
300,000
0%
Planned
Planned
9
Amber Oaks Phase IV - Bldgs K, L, M
225,600
0%
Planned
Planned
10
Quarry Oaks IV
160,000
0%
Planned
Planned
11
Aspen Lake Three
128,700
0%
Planned
Planned
12
Research Park Bldg 6
117,321
0%
Planned
Planned
13
Paloma Ridge C
112,500
0%
Planned
Planned
14
Four Points Centre, Phase II - Building 4
80,000
0%
Planned
Planned
15
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 1
65,000
0%
Planned
Planned
16
Riata Crossing Bldg 6
49,716
0%
Planned
Planned
Planned
Under Construction
ROUND ROCK
CEDAR PARK
13
5
PFLUGERVILLE 9
11
12
15
16
4 8
LAKE TRAVIS
14
6
10
ARBORETUM
2
7 1
DOMAIN
3 34
SOUTHWEST SUBMARKET 4Q UPDATE
BY MAX MCDONALD | Associate, AQUILA Corporate Services
105,799 SF Net Absorption
9.54%
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
$39.52
Avg. Class A Full Service Rental Rate Dimensional Place; Photo courtesy of CoStar
SOUTHWEST UPDATE
Several years ago, the Southwest market experienced a significant amount of leasing activity. In fact, in 2012, there was nearly twice as much leasing activity in the Southwest submarket than there was in 20161. The activity of five to seven years ago is now being reflected in the current state of the Southwest submarket. Large tenants who signed new leases or renewals then – such as St. Jude (now Abbott Laboratories) at Dimensional Place and SHI Corporation and CSID at Barton Skyway – are receiving much of the attention as they are coming up on their expirations in the next 12-24 months.
If a large tenant is coming up on the end of its lease, and opts to proceed cautiously before occupying a new building, the tenant may opt to take one of the large subleases in order to take advantage of the lower rate, while waiting to see how the overall market shakes out in the coming quarters.
With so many large blocks of space rolling in the quarters ahead, developers are licking their chops at the prospect of landing one of these major Southwest tenants. Development sites such as Garza Ranch by Brandywine, Seven Oaks by Riverside Resources, Uplands Phase II by Drawbridge Realty (124,641 sf with permit in hand), The Terrace III-V by Claydesta LLP and others are all vying for one of these groups to potentially kick-off their building.
Due to these limiting factors at the end of 2016, the lack of activity as of late is not indicative of a slowing submarket. Rather, tenants still find the Southwest submarket as one of the most desirable in the city, making these past few months feel more like the calm before the storm of new leasing activity ahead of us.
Meanwhile, most of the largest contiguous available spaces are subleases, including AMD’s space at The Summit at Lantana (58,480 sf available January 2017 plus 59,406 sf available July 2017), Apple’s space at CityView (94,198 sf) and YETI’s subleases at Uplands Corporate Center Phase I (92,781 sf) and Lantana Ridge (58,300 sf available October 2017). The Summit at Lantana Building 3; Photo courtesy of CoStar
36
SOUTHWEST UPDATE
As tenants continue to grow and with costs continuing to rapidly rise in the CBD, particularly with regard to operating expenses, it could be only a matter of time before downtown tenants begin to flock to the nearby southwest market to save
substantial dollars and get in on the amenity-rich new construction and more affordable parking.
1
Source: CoStar
Lake Travis
McNeil
Arboretum
Domain
FAR SW West Lake Hills
Barton Creek
Tarrytown
Austin
Lost Creek
NEAR SW
Sunset Valley
ABIA
SOUTHWEST MICROMARKETS
37
SOUTHWEST
COMPETITIVE SET PERFORMANCE SOUTHWEST COMPETITIVE SET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
7,100,750
399,919
188,613
-21,519
8.29%
$36.76
2015 Q2
7,782,464
428,605
213,812
627,829
8.25%
$37.35
2015 Q3
7,949,325
353,625
264,345
191,308
7.77%
$37.41
2015 Q4
8,158,872
634,326
246,492
-53,301
10.80%
$37.94
2016 Q1
8,161,143
680,309
195,638
7,142
10.73%
$38.47
2016 Q2
8,161,143
696,616
213,561
-34,230
11.15%
$38.65
2016 Q3
8,153,822
611,657
271,868
19,331
10.84%
$38.88
2016 Q4
8,153,822
550,953
226,773
105,799
9.54%
$39.52
*Absorption includes sublease space
15%
800
12%
600
9%
400
6%
200
3%
0
0%
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
800
95%
600
93%
400
91%
200
89%
0
87%
(200)
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Occupancy Rate
1,000
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
NET ABSORPTION
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
85%
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
$40
12%
$38
10%
$36
8%
$34
6%
$32
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY VS. RENTAL RATES
4%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
38
7
2
BEE CAVE
WEST LAKE HILLS
6
4 10 12
BARTON CREEK UT SO
T ES HW
9 8
PK
WY
5 3 11 1
SOUTHWEST AUSTIN LARGE OFFICE AVAILABILITY 20,000 SF + of available space Building
39
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Total Available SF
1
Encino Trace II
59,151
0
59,151
2
Wild Basin II
44,748
12,277
57,025
3
The Summit at Lantana Bldg 3
52,934
0
52,934
4
Las Cimas II
23,096
26,565
49,661
5
Rialto II
0
36,421
36,421
6
Las Cimas III
18,089
14,374
32,463
7
Plaza on the Lake I
8
Barton Oaks Plaza V
9
Rollingwood Center I
10
Las Cimas IV
11
The Park on Barton Creek 1
12
Cityview Center
8,936
21,596
30,532
28,784
0
28,784
0
27,276
27,276
11,408
14,373
25,781
24,520
0
24,520
0
24,478
24,478
SOUTHWEST AUSTIN OFFICE DEVELOPMENT Building
Total SF
Estimated Delivery
Status
1
Galleria Oaks I & II
147,928
50%
2017 Q2
Under Construction
2
Lantana Ridge I & II
175,000
100%
2017 Q2
Under Construction
3
Walsh Tarlton Overlook
55,500
0%
2017 Q2
Under Construction
4
The Overlook at Barton Creek
53,091
0%
2017 Q3
Under Construction
5
Regency Park
90,000
0%
Planned
Planned
6
Rollingwood Center III
107,000
0%
Planned
Planned
7
Seven Oaks I & II
129,604
0%
Planned
Planned
8
The Backyard - Buildings B, J, & H
171,450
0%
Planned
Planned
9
The Terrace 3
203,130
0%
Planned
Planned
10
The Terrace 4
285,663
0%
Planned
Planned
11
The Terrace 5
218,809
0%
Planned
Planned
12
Upland Corporate Center Phase II
123,525
0%
Planned
Planned
Planned
8
Percent Preleased
Under Construction
7
1
4
WEST LAKE HILLS BEE CAVE
BARTON CREEK UT SO T ES HW
6
PK
WY
3 2
10 11
9
12 5
40
AVAILABILITY SUMMARY SOUTHWEST CLASS A 5
8,717
4 3 2,500 SF
NSW
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
25,137 SF
3
3
2
2
2
3,647 SF
2
2
1
1
1
1
4 2,400 SF
2 1
5
3,480 SF
1
NSW
9,225
3,038 SF
NSW
NSW
5
NSW
NSW
Barton Oaks Plaza I 901 S Mopac Expy
Barton Oaks Plaza II 901 S Mopac Expy
Barton Oaks Plaza III 901 S Mopac Expy
Barton Oaks Plaza IV 901 S Mopac Expy
Barton Oaks Plaza V 901 S Mopac Expy
One Barton Skyway 1501 S Mopac Expy
5 Floors 99,404 SF 97% Leased $29.50 NNN $16.04 Op/Ex $45.54 Gross
5 Floors 116,448 SF 87% Leased $27.00 NNN $15.46 Op/Ex $42.46 Gross
5 Floors 121,467 SF 90% Leased $27.00 NNN $14.71 Op/Ex $41.71 Gross
5 Floors 112,000 SF 100% Leased $27.00 NNN $15.45 Op/Ex $42.45 Gross
5 Floors 119,549 SF 76% Leased $27.00 NNN $14.86 Op/Ex $41.86 Gross
4 Floors 195,324 SF 100% Leased $26.50-$27.50 NNN $15.09 Op/Ex $41.59-$42.59 Gross
5 4
4
3
42,369 SF
3
3
13,280 SF
2
16,782 SF
2
2
19,402 SF 2,433 SF
1
1
FSW
FSW
6,726 SF
1
FSW
3,694 SF 10,852 SF
3
3,021 SF
4
4,745 SF
15,047 SF
3
14,373 SF
2
2
1
1
FSW
FSW
Las Cimas I 804 Las Cimas Pkwy
Las Cimas II 807 Las Cimas Pkwy
Las Cimas III 805 Las Cimas Pkwy
Las Cimas IV 900 S Capital of Tx Hwy
4 floors 161,606 SF 100% Leased $24.50 NNN $13.83 Op/Ex $38.33 Gross
4 floors 158,137 SF 63% Leased $24.50 NNN $13.70 Op/Ex $38.20 Gross
3 Floors 85,000 SF 92% Leased $23.50 NNN $15.37 Op/Ex $38.87 Gross
4 Floors 156,682 SF 85% Leased $26.50 NNN $14.61 Op/Ex $41.11 Gross
4 Floors 156,682 SF 88% Leased $26.50 NNN $14.89 Op/Ex $41.39 Gross
5 Floors 138,008 SF 92% Leased $27.00 NNN $15.58 Op/Ex $42.58 Gross
4
27,276 SF
NSW
2
2
2
1
1
3
2
2
1
1
NSW
Rollingwood Center II 2500 Bee Caves Rd
4 Floors 145,437 SF 100% Leased $30.00 NNN $12.00 Op/Ex $42.00 Gross
2 Floors 69,150 SF 100% Leased $30.00 NNN $12.00 Op/Ex $42.00 Gross
FSW
3600 San Clemente B 3600 N Capital of Tx Hwy 3 Floors 90,267 SF 100% Leased $27.00 NNN $15.63 Op/Ex $42.63 Gross
14,514 SF
FSW
3700 San Clemente 3700 N Capital of Tx Hwy 5 Floors 249,870 SF 94% Leased $27.00 NNN $13.81 Op/Ex $40.81 Gross
11,038 SF
4
4 3
3
Rollingwood Center I 2500 Bee Caves Rd
5 11,874 SF
3
3
1
FSW
Encino Trace II 5707 Southwest Pkwy
5
3 52,934 SF
FSW
3900 San Clemente 3900 N Capital of Tx Hwy 5 Floors 251,146 SF 91% Leased $26.00 NNN $14.31 Op/Ex $40.31 Gross
Southwest Submarket
2
1
1
Availability Summary 41
2 6,663 SF
Encino Trace I 5707 Southwest Pkwy
4
3
FSW
The Summit at Lantana Bldg 300 7171 Southwest Pkwy 4 Floors 217,077 SF 76% Leased $25.00 NNN $14.59 Op/Ex $39.59 Gross
7 6
4
3
8,100 SF
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
NSW
4,658 SF
NSW
5
NSW
FSW
FSW
3,694
FSW
Two Barton Skyway 1601 S Mopac Expy
Three Barton Skyway 1221 S Mopac Expy
Four Barton Skyway 1301 S Mopac Expy
Capital Ridge 320 Capital of Tx Hwy
Dimensional Place 1 6304 Bee Caves Rd
Dimensional Place 2 6300 Bee Caves Rd
4 Floors 195,639 SF 96% Leased $26.50-$27.50 NNN $15.35 Op/Ex $41.85-$42.85 Gross
4 Floors 173,302 SF 97% Leased $26.50-$27.50 NNN $15.09 Op/Ex $41.59-$42.59 Gross
5 Floors 222,580 SF 100% Leased $26.50-$27.50 NNN $14.35 Op/Ex $40.85-$41.85 Gross
7 floors 216,511 SF 100% Leased $27.00-$30.00 NNN $10.56 Op/Ex $37.56-$40.56 Gross
7 Floors 220,000 SF 100% Leased $24.00 NNN $12.42 Op/Ex $36.42 Gross
5 Floors 156,000 SF 100% Leased $24.00 NNN $12.42 Op/Ex $36.42 Gross
5
5
4
21,262 SF
4
3
3
3,258 SF
3
2
2,568 SF
2
2
20,228 SF
2
1
8,295 SF
1
1
18,549 SF
1
NSW
NSW
Mira Vista 2705 Bee Caves Rd
NSW
The Park on Barton Creek One 3711 S Mopac Expy 5 floors 102,608 SF 76% Leased $26.00 NNN $13.87 Op/Ex $39.87 Gross
3 Floors 121,147 SF 93% Leased $27.50 NNN $15.28 Op/Ex $42.78 Gross
3
5,661 SF
1,806 SF
3
21,596 SF
3
2
8,936 SF
2
1
FSW
The Park on Barton Creek Two 3711 S Mopac Expy 5 floors 102,587 SF 100% Leased $26.00 NNN $14.02 Op/Ex $40.02 Gross
1
FSW
5000 Plaza on the Lake 5000 Plaza on the Lake Dr. 3 Floors 119,463 SF 94% Leased $27.00-$28.00 NNN $17.10 Op/Ex $44.10-$45.10 Gross
Plaza on the Lake I 5001 Plaza on the Lake Dr. 3 Floors 122,530 SF 93% Leased $28.50 NNN $15.57 Op/Ex $44.07 Gross
6
5,725 SF
6
5
5
5
8,456 SF
5
3,493 SF
4
4
4
4
4
2,221 SF
3
3
2,329 SF
3
3
3
2
2
1,281 SF
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
FSW
The Summit at Lantana Bldg 400 7171 Southwest Pkwy 4 Floors 220,218 SF 100% Leased $25.00 NNN $14.59 Op/Ex $39.59 Gross
1
NSW
15,712 SF
NSW
NSW
NSW
The Terrace I 2600 Via Fortuna
The Terrace II 2700 Via Fortuna
The Terrace VI 2901 Via Fortuna
The Terrace VII 2801 Via Fortuna
5 Floors 115,460 SF 97% Leased $27.00 NNN $15.99 Op/Ex $42.99 Gross
5 Floors 114,635 SF 86% Leased $27.00 NNN $16.35 Op/Ex $43.35 Gross
6 Floors 196,717 SF 97% Leased $30.00 NNN $16.44 Op/Ex $46.44 Gross
6 Floors 196,215 SF 98% Leased $30.00 NNN $16.41 Op/Ex $46.41 Gross
Austin, TX Q4 2016 Class A Office Space
To find out more, visit:
FSW
Plaza on the Lake II 4801 Plaza on the Lake Dr. 3 Floors 156,000 SF 100% Leased $28.50 NNN $15.57 Op/Ex $44.07 Gross
SUBLEASE SPACE AVAILABLE SPACE
aquilacommercial.com/reports
42
TheAppendix Competitive Sets
45-56
Central Business District
45
Arboretum/Domain
46
Shepherd Mountain/2222
49
Far Northwest
51
Near Southwest
53
Far Southwest
55
Longterm Performance of Submarkets
57
Longterm Performance: CBD vs. Suburban
58
CBD Overall Performance
59
Southwest Overall Performance
61
Northwest Overall Performance
63
The AQUILA Methodology
65
COMPETITIVE SET
BUILDING LISTS AND SUBMARKET DATA CBD COMPETITIVE SET BUILDINGS Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Asking Rental Rate
Estimated OpEx
100 Congress
411,536
20,132 ↑
0↓
$40.00
$22.69
300 West 6th
454,225
31,424 ↓
0↓
$38.00
$25.78 ↑
301 Congress
418,338
37,360 ↓
14,925 ↑
$35.00
$22.52 ↑
400 West 15th
281,196
12,243 ↑
6,858
$28.00
$17.47
501 Congress
122,551
17,400
20,396
$35.00
$22.53
515 Congress
263,058
15,078 ↑
0
$34.00
$18.05
5th + Colorado
179,000
4,965 ↓
0
$40.00
$17.39 ↑
600 Congress Ave.
503,951
0↓
22,644 ↑
$35.00
$20.86 ↑
816 Congress
434,081
16,845 ↑
3,325
$35.00 ↑
$17.59
Austin Centre
326,335
32,381 ↑
0
$28.50
$19.92 ↑
Capitol Center
164,044
24,301 ↑
1,616
$30.00
$19.70
Capitol Tower
172,837
10,580
0
$31.00
$16.52
Chase Tower
389,503
3,663 ↑
0↓
$37.00
$19.85
Colorado Tower
373,334
0
0
$34.00
$16.83
Frost Bank Tower
535,078
20,519 ↓
0↓
$43.00 ↑
$26.38 ↑
IBC Bank Plaza
194,749
0
0
$35.00
$23.50 ↑
Lavaca Plaza
118,635
6,714
0
$32.50
$22.65 ↑
Littlefield Building
109,779
19,907
0↓
$32.00 ↓
$15.92 ↓
One Congress Plaza
518,385
44,849 ↑
4,797
$37.00 ↓
$18.15 ↑
San Jacinto Center
406,279
0
7,306
$36.00
$23.73 ↑
Scarbrough Building
130,789
19,546 ↑
6,615
$35.00
$16.59 ↓
Seaholm
143,151
0
0
$28.00
$12.00
Building Name
45
COMPETITIVE SET
ARBORETUM/DOMAIN MICROMARKET PERFORMANCE ARBORETUM/DOMAIN COMPETITIVE SET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
6,553,774
447,850
71,595
126,043
7.93%
$34.46
2015 Q2
6,742,789
389,248
63,891
255,321
6.72%
$34.77
2015 Q3
6,719,697
407,169
76,078
-53,200
7.19%
$34.38
2015 Q4
6,938,611
322,314
93,200
286,647
5.99%
$34.82
2016 Q1
8,253,506
617,666
88,016
1,024,727
8.55%
$35.76
2016 Q2
8,253,506
687,546
100,846
-82,710
9.55%
$36.09
2016 Q3
8,253,506
664,105
94,513
29,774
9.19%
$36.42
2016 Q4
8,253,506
621,665
68,648
68,305
8.36%
$36.66
*Absorption includes sublease space
15%
800
12%
600
9%
400
6%
200
3%
0
0%
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
1,200
99%
1,000
97%
800
95%
600
93%
400
91%
200
89%
0
87%
(200)
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Occupancy Rate
1,000
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
NET ABSORPTION
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
85%
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
$37
11%
$36
9%
$35
7%
$34
5%
$33
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY VS. RENTAL RATES
3%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
46
COMPETITIVE SET
ARBORETUM/DOMAIN MICROMARKET COMPETITIVE SET BUILDINGS Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Asking Rental Rate
Estimated OpEx
3307 Northland
98,888
1,645
0
$17.50
$11.81 ↑
9500 Arboretum
182,331
0
0
$22.00
$13.51
Arboretum Atrium
90,280
8,222
0↓
$21.00
$15.48 ↑
Arboretum Plaza One
146,347
4,998
0
$28.00
$15.53
Arboretum Plaza Two
98,828
0
0
$28.00
$15.53
Arboretum Point
150,033
0
0
$23.00
$13.44
Atrium Office Centre
199,858
32,952
0
$18.50
$12.08 ↑
Austin Oaks
445,240
60,338 ↓
1,248 ↓
$19.00
$12.04 ↑
Balcones Centre
74,876
5,894 ↑
0
$26.00
$10.67
Building Name
Braker Pointe I
77,454
0↓
0
$22.50
$14.47 ↑
Braker Pointe II
103,114
1,953
5,162
$22.50
$13.81 ↑
Braker Pointe III
196,380
131,404 ↓
0
$25.00
$12.84
Colina West
69,299
3,666 ↑
0
$20.50
$13.30 ↑
Domain 1
124,571
0
0
$31.00
$11.00
Domain 2
143,331
0
0
$31.00
$11.00
Domain 3
179,006
0
33,390
$27.00
$11.90
Domain 4
152,012
0
0
$27.00 ↑
$11.16
Domain 5
78,987
0
0
$26.00
$11.00
Domain 7
221,973
0↓
0
$29.00
$12.00
Domain Gateway
173,962
0
0
$28.00
$15.39 ↑
Great Hills Corporate Center I
59,228
10,216 ↓
0
$18.50
$11.39
Great Hills Corporate Center II
60,429
0
0
$18.00
$11.39
Great Hills Corporate Center III
56,422
0
0
$18.50
$11.39
Great Hills Plaza
139,252
11,318 ↑
0
$21.00 ↓
$12.77 ↓
Greystone Plaza
78,248
2,184 ↓
0
$20.00
$13.88 ↑
Heritage Plaza
74,736
11,606 ↑
0
$29.00
$12.49
IBM Broadmoor Campus
47
1,111,734
144,249
0
$24.00
$11.00
Kaleido I & II
73,149
10,742 ↑
1,989 ↑
$18.50
$11.67 ↑
Lakeview Plaza
120,559
9,276
15,344 ↓
$23.00 ↑
$13.10
Northpoint Centre I & II
151,126
12,069 ↑
0
$24.00 ↑
$12.66 ↑
COMPETITIVE SET
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Asking Rental Rate
Estimated OpEx
Offices at the Domain Bldg 1
92,955
0
0
$27.50
$15.49
Offices at the Domain Bldg 2
75,509
0
0
$27.50
$14.75
One Far West Plaza
70,642
276 ↓
0
$18.50 ↑
$12.03 ↓
Park North I & II
133,568
0
0
$19.50
$11.83
Plaza 7000
155,076
1,712
0↓
$26.00
$13.82
Prominent Pointe I
150,376
25,204 ↓
0↓
$24.50
$14.83 ↑
Prominent Pointe II
102,567
4,917 ↓
8,409
$24.50
$15.88 ↑
Quarry Lake Business Center
117,512
0
0
$23.00 ↑
$13.75
Quarry Oaks I
165,435
0
0
$27.00
$11.82
Quarry Oaks II
126,000
0
0
$27.00
$11.48
Quarry Oaks III
137,615
0
0
$28.00
$12.00
Reunion Park
118,142
18,962
0
$19.00
$11.16
Stone Creek I
76,860
0
0
$24.00
$10.53 ↓
Stone Creek II
162,723
0
0
$24.00
$13.29 ↓
Building Name
Stone Creek Park
77,185
0
0
$20.00
$13.45
Stonebridge Plaza I
193,200
2,695 ↑
0
$28.00
$14.30 ↓
Stonebridge Plaza II
192,864
10,986
0
$28.00
$14.58 ↓
Stratum Executive Center Bldg A
61,000
0
0
$22.00
$14.60 ↑
Stratum Executive Center Bldg B
61,000
4,408 ↑
0
$22.00
$14.60 ↑
Stratum Executive Center Bldg C
61,000
3,099
0
$22.00
$14.60 ↑
Stratum Executive Center Bldg D
61,000
16,775 ↑
0
$22.00
$14.60 ↑
The Campus at Arboretum 1
60,059
0
0
$23.50
$15.02 ↑
The Campus at Arboretum 2
33,135
0
0↓
$23.50
$14.64 ↑
The Campus at Arboretum 3
32,765
0
0
$23.50
$14.92 ↑
The Campus at Arboretum 4
85,916
10,066
0
$23.50
$14.17
The Campus at Arboretum 5
105,000
0
0
$23.50
$14.57 ↑
The Park at 8300 N. MoPac
93,317
38,869
0
$23.00
$14.01
UFCU Plaza
246,869
5,607 ↓
0
$22.00
$13.12 ↓
Westech 360 Bldgs 1-4
175,529
6,225
3,106 ↑
$21.00
$13.79 ↑
Westpark Office 1-4
97,034
9,132 ↑
0
$19.00 ↑
$10.63 ↓
48
COMPETITIVE SET
SHEPHERD MOUNTAIN/2222 MICROMARKET PERFORMANCE SHEPHERD MOUNTAIN/2222 COMPETITIVE SET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
2,690,750
207,229
179,538
132,562
14.37%
$34.17
2015 Q2
2,690,750
181,798
152,245
52,724
12.41%
$34.45
2015 Q3
2,690,750
193,874
135,899
4,270
12.26%
$34.55
2015 Q4
2,690,835
173,907
79,703
76,248
9.42%
$35.16
2016 Q1
2,690,835
266,741
97,821
-110,952
13.55%
$36.11
2016 Q2
2,690,835
293,144
137,974
-66,556
16.02%
$36.16
2016 Q3
2,690,835
304,989
137,636
-11,507
16.45%
$36.65
2016 Q4
2,690,835
279,953
42,875
119,797
12.00%
$36.66
*Absorption includes sublease space
525
18%
350
12%
175
0
6%
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
160
0%
24%
$36
18%
$34
12%
$32
6%
$30
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
49
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
0%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY VS. RENTAL RATES
91%
120
89%
80
87%
40
85%
0
83%
(40)
81%
(80)
79%
(120)
77%
(160)
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
$38
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
24%
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
700
NET ABSORPTION
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
75%
Occupancy Rate
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
COMPETITIVE SET
SHEPHERD MOUNTAIN/2222 MICROMARKET COMPETITIVE SET BUILDINGS Building Name
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Asking Rental Rate
Estimated OpEx
Bridgepoint Plaza I
105,333
0
0
$23.50
$13.31 ↓
Bridgepoint Plaza II
72,640
11,303 ↑
0
$23.50
$13.31 ↓
Bridgepoint Square 1
84,692
5,016 ↓
0
$25.00
$13.54 ↑
Bridgepoint Square 2
92,459
6,636 ↑
0↓
$25.00
$13.22
Bridgepoint Square 3
78,352
0
0
$25.00
$13.22
Bridgepoint Square 4
109,175
15,330
10,328 ↑
$25.00
$13.22
Bridgepoint Square 5
76,793
5,646
0↓
$25.00
$13.22
Champion Office Park I & II
230,000
0
0
$26.50
$11.00
Four Points Centre I & II
192,396
0
0
$23.50
$14.09 ↑
Ladera Bend 1
56,466
0
0
$22.00
$16.34
Ladera Bend 2
45,732
0
0
$22.00
$14.10
Ladera Bend 3
56,196
0
0↓
$22.00
$14.67
Lakewood Center I
47,389
45,620 ↑
10,182 ↓
$21.00 ↓
$15.19 ↑
Lakewood Center II
44,611
0
0
$21.00 ↓
$15.19 ↑
Lakewood on the Park B
102,086
29,324 ↓
0
$21.50
$12.51
Lakewood on the Park C
78,596
12,808
0
$21.50
$12.51
Millennium Building
125,612
6,290
0
$24.00
$12.58
Park Centre Bldg 1
89,822
24,305 ↑
3,279
$17.00 ↓
$11.82 ↓
Park Centre Bldg 2
35,095
18,730
0
$17.00 ↓
$11.82 ↓
Park Centre Bldg 3
78,270
45,711
0
$17.00 ↓
$11.82 ↓
Reserve at Bull Creek A
43,867
11,365
2,424 ↑
$20.00
$13.17 ↑
Reserve at Bull Creek B
43,713
0↓
0
$20.00
$13.17 ↑
Reserve at Bull Creek C
43,695
0↓
0
$20.00
$13.17 ↑
River Place Corporate Park I
76,529
0
0
$23.00
$14.46 ↓
River Place Corporate Park II
114,491
21,306 ↑
16,662
$23.00
$13.72 ↓
River Place Corporate Park III
113,465
0
0↓
$23.00
$14.13 ↑
River Place Corporate Park IV
87,639
8,601
0
$23.00
$14.43 ↑
River Place Corporate Park V
67,601
0
0
$23.00
$14.83 ↑
River Place Corporate Park VI
62,037
0
0
$23.00
$14.64 ↑
River Place Corporate Park VII
69,119
0
0
$23.00
$13.72 ↓
Shepherd Mountain Plaza
100,937
1,247 ↑
0↓
$38.00
$12.39
Stone Cliff
66,027
10,715
0
$18.00
$13.66 ↑
50
COMPETITIVE SET
FAR NORTHWEST MICROMARKET PERFORMANCE FAR NORTHWEST COMPETITIVE SET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
3,687,385
337,115
41,201
61,178
10.26%
$30.93
2015 Q2
3,687,385
326,153
67,899
-15,736
10.69%
$31.66
2015 Q3
4,224,285
852,792
75,271
2,889
21.97%
$31.12
2015 Q4
4,526,637
964,028
62,303
204,084
22.67%
$32.36
2016 Q1
4,198,522
537,928
209,659
-49,371
17.81%
$33.30
2016 Q2
4,198,522
490,723
186,650
70,214
16.13%
$33.73
2016 Q3
4,198,522
394,663
251,041
31,669
15.38%
$33.56
2016 Q4
4,198,522
336,715
182,772
126,217
12.37%
$34.09
*Absorption includes sublease space
24%
1,000
20%
800
16%
600
12%
400
8%
200
4%
0
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
0%
$34
18%
$32
12%
$30
6%
$28
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
51
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
0%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY VS. RENTAL RATES 24%
98%
200
91%
100
84%
0
77%
(100)
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
$36
300
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
70%
Occupancy Rate
1,200
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
NET ABSORPTION
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
COMPETITIVE SET
FAR NORTHWEST MICROMARKET COMPETITIVE SET BUILDINGS Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Asking Rental Rate
Estimated OpEx
Amber Oaks A
78,164
19,124
0
$19.50
$11.67
Amber Oaks B
44,184
0
0
$19.50
$8.30
Amber Oaks C
44,184
0
0
$19.50
$8.60
Amber Oaks D
28,733
0
0
$19.50
$10.45
Building Name
Amber Oaks E
63,111
0
0
$19.50
$8.03
Amber Oaks F
79,732
0↓
0
$19.50
$11.64
Amber Oaks G
106,455
8,293 ↑
4,924 ↑
$19.50
$11.68 ↑
Amber Oaks H
101,045
0
0
$19.50
$10.93
Amber Oaks I
50,313
10,828
0
$19.50
$13.03
Amber Oaks J
50,111
21,311 ↑
33,147
$19.50
$12.14
Aspen Lake One
204,940
0
36,038 ↑
$22.00
$13.97 ↑
Aspen Lake Two
129,000
0
0
$24.50
$10.00
Crossings at Lakeline I
114,726
0
0
$22.50
$12.61 ↑
Crossings at Lakeline II
118,046
5,129 ↓
0
$22.50
$11.73 ↓
Paloma Ridge A & B
212,400
184,469
0
$19.50 ↑
$9.50
Parmer Business Park 7, 8, 9
123,731
0
0
$18.50
$5.60
Parmer Business Park D, E, F
107,283
0
0
$18.50
$5.60
Pecan Park I
136,444
0↓
0
$22.50
$11.92
Pecan Park II
136,245
0
0
$19.50
$10.72 ↑
Research Park Place 7
125,701
1,393 ↑
40,279
$23.00
$13.20
Research Park Place 8
125,700
33,518
0
$23.00
$13.20
Research Park Plaza I
135,541
7,641
0
$23.00
$14.98
Research Park Plaza II
131,027
0
0
$23.00
$14.98
Research Park Plaza III
173,530
0
0
$24.00
$15.90 ↑
Research Park Plaza IV
184,114
3,355
0↓
$24.00
$15.90 ↑
Research Park Plaza V
172,854
4,754
0
$24.00
$11.06
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 2
63,372
7,054
21,148 ↑
$23.00 ↑
$13.65
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 3
63,849
0
0
$23.00 ↑
$13.65
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 4
93,737
10,445
0
$23.00 ↑
$13.65
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 5
93,828
6,215
0
$23.00 ↑
$13.65
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 6
93,835
0
0
$23.00 ↑
$13.65
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 7
92,719
0
0
$23.00 ↑
$13.65
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 8
93,718
0
45,457
$23.00 ↑
$13.65
Riata Corporate Park Bldg 9
92,973
0
0
$23.00 ↑
$13.65
Riata Crossing Bldg 1
81,775
0
0
N/A
N/A
Riata Crossing Bldg 2
114,906
0
0
N/A
N/A
Riata Crossing Bldg 3
81,229
0
0
N/A
N/A
Riata Crossing Bldg 4
79,465
0
0
N/A
N/A
Tower of the Hills/Tower Point
175,802
13,186 ↓
1,779 ↑
$21.50 ↑
$13.52 ↑
52
COMPETITIVE SET
NEAR SOUTHWEST MICROMARKET PERFORMANCE NEAR SOUTHWEST COMPETITIVE SET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
2,711,340
143,863
125,110
12,181
9.92%
$38.69
2015 Q2
2,925,937
110,815
101,710
271,045
7.26%
$38.96
2015 Q3
2,925,937
105,532
175,528
-68,535
9.61%
$39.31
2015 Q4
2,925,937
149,170
165,733
-33,843
10.76%
$40.02
2016 Q1
2,926,017
137,847
113,003
64,133
8.57%
$40.53
2016 Q2
2,926,017
185,286
98,583
-33,019
9.70%
$40.93
2016 Q3
2,926,017
198,831
117,508
-32,470
10.81%
$41.35
2016 Q4
2,926,017
166,865
49,953
99,521
7.41%
$42.16
*Absorption includes sublease space
16%
300
12%
200
8%
100
4%
0
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
$41
15%
$39
12%
$37
9%
$35
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
53
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
6%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY VS. RENTAL RATES 18%
100%
200
96%
100
92%
0
88%
(100)
0%
$43
300
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
84%
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
Occupancy Rate
400
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
NET ABSORPTION
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
COMPETITIVE SET
NEAR SOUTHWEST MICROMARKET COMPETITIVE SET BUILDINGS Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Asking Rental Rate
Estimated OpEx
Barton Creek Plaza I
72,974
9,875
0
$24.00
$14.81 ↑
Barton Creek Plaza II
64,718
0↓
0↓
$24.00
$14.31 ↑
Barton Creek Plaza III
64,842
0
9,432
$24.00
$14.11 ↑
Barton Oaks Plaza I
99,404
2,500
0↓
$29.50 ↑
$16.04 ↑
Barton Oaks Plaza II
116,448
14,597 ↑
0↓
$27.00
$15.46 ↓
Barton Oaks Plaza III
121,467
12,263 ↑
0
$27.00
$14.71 ↑
Barton Oaks Plaza IV
112,000
0
0
$27.00
$15.45 ↑
Barton Oaks Plaza V
119,549
28,784
0
$27.00
$14.86 ↑
Barton Skyway I
195,324
0
0
$27.50 ↑
$15.09 ↑
Barton Skyway II
195,639
8,100 ↑
0↓
$27.50 ↑
$15.35 ↑
Barton Skyway III
173,302
4,658 ↓
0
$27.50 ↑
$15.09 ↑
Barton Skyway IV
222,580
0
0
$27.50 ↑
$14.35 ↑
Centre I
39,903
2,710 ↓
0
$20.50
$12.75 ↑
Centre II
54,610
11,083
0
$19.50
$12.47
Mira Vista
121,147
8,295 ↑
2,568 ↓
$27.50
$15.28 ↑
Overlook at Gaines Ranch
50,725
10,949
0
$26.50
$15.83 ↑
Rollingwood Center I & II
214,587
0
27,276 ↓
$30.00
$12.00
Spyglass Point
58,576
0
0
$22.00
$14.97 ↑
The Park on Barton Creek 1
102,608
24,520 ↑
0
$26.00
$13.87 ↓
The Park on Barton Creek 2
102,587
0↓
0
$26.00
$14.02 ↓
The Terrace 1
115,460
3,601 ↓
0
$27.00 ↑
$15.99
The Terrace 2
114,635
15,712 ↑
0
$26.50
$16.35 ↑
The Terrace 6
196,717
5,725 ↓
8,456
$30.00 ↑
$16.44 ↑
The Terrace 7
196,215
3,493 ↓
2,221 ↑
$30.00
$16.41 ↑
Building Name
54
COMPETITIVE SET
FAR SOUTHWEST MICROMARKET PERFORMANCE FAR SOUTHWEST COMPETITIVE SET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
4,389,410
256,056
63,503
-33,700
7.28%
$35.57
2015 Q2
4,856,527
317,790
112,102
356,784
8.85%
$36.39
2015 Q3
5,023,388
248,093
88,817
259,843
6.71%
$36.31
2015 Q4
5,232,935
485,156
80,759
-19,458
10.81%
$36.75
2016 Q1
5,235,126
542,462
82,635
-56,991
11.94%
$37.28
2016 Q2
5,235,126
511,330
114,978
-1,211
11.96%
$37.34
2016 Q3
5,227,805
412,826
154,360
51,801
10.85%
$37.47
2016 Q4
5,227,805
384,088
176,820
6,278
10.73%
$38.00
*Absorption includes sublease space
15%
600
12%
450
9%
300
6%
150
3%
0
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
$38
12%
$36
9%
$34
6%
$32
3%
$30
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
55
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
0%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY VS. RENTAL RATES 15%
96%
300
93%
150
90%
0
87%
(150)
0%
$40
450
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
84%
Occupancy Rate
750
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
NET ABSORPTION
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
COMPETITIVE SET
FAR SOUTHWEST MICROMARKET COMPETITIVE SET BUILDINGS Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Sublease Available SF
Asking Rental Rate
Estimated OpEx
3600 San Clemente Bldg B
90,267
0
7,238 ↑
$27.00
$15.63
3700 San Clemente
249,870
14,514 ↓
0
$27.00
$13.81 ↑
3900 San Clemente
251,146
18,242 ↓
0
$26.00
$14.31 ↑
5000 Plaza on the Lake
118,063
7,467 ↓
0
$28.00 ↑
$17.10 ↑
7000 West at Lantana 1 & 2
136,075
0
0
DND
DND
Canyon at Wild Basin
74,580
11,162 ↑
0
$24.50
$12.33 ↑
Capital Ridge
216,511
0
0
$30.00
$10.56
Cielo Center
270,711
10,033 ↑
5,656
$20.50
$13.48 ↑
Cityview 1
46,702
0
0
$22.00
$13.96 ↑
Cityview 2
47,809
3,023 ↑
4,278 ↑
$22.00
$13.96 ↑
Cityview 3
48,044
0
0
$22.00
$13.96 ↑
Cityview Center
137,763
0
24,478
$26.00
$12.91 ↑
Crystal Mountain 1, 2 & 3
61,762
14,524 ↓
0↓
$25.50
$9.41
Dimensional Place I
220,000
0
0
$24.00
$12.18 ↓
Dimensional Place II
156,000
0
3,694 ↑
$24.00
$12.18 ↓
Encino Trace I
161,606
0
0
$24.50
$13.83 ↑
Encino Trace II
158,137
59,151 ↓
0
$24.50
$13.70 ↑
Escalade Bldg A
58,344
9,440
0
$22.00 ↑
$13.46
Escalade Bldg B
57,142
3,165 ↑
0
$22.00 ↑
$13.46
Lake Pointe II
42,933
5,489
0
$14.00
$10.09
Las Cimas I
85,000
6,726 ↑
0
$23.50
$15.37 ↑
Las Cimas II
156,682
23,096 ↑
26,565 ↓
$26.50
$14.61 ↓
Las Cimas III
156,682
18,089 ↑
14,374 ↑
$26.50
$14.89 ↑
Las Cimas IV
138,008
11,408 ↑
14,373
$27.00
$15.58 ↑
Lost Creek Point
73,026
7,040 ↑
0
$18.00
$12.61 ↑
Parkway at Oak Hill I & II
145,475
12,485 ↑
0
$24.00
$13.84
Plaza 290
63,163
5,331
3,120 ↑
$19.00
$12.50
Plaza on the Lake I
122,530
8,936
21,596
$28.50
$15.57 ↓
Plaza on the Lake II
111,166
0
0
$28.50
$15.57 ↑
Rialto I
77,755
13,521 ↓
0
$23.50
$13.52 ↑
Rialto II
77,732
0
36,421
$23.50
$13.52 ↑
The Enclave Bldgs 1-4
44,704
5,500
2,750
$19.00
$9.77 ↓
The Summit at Lantana Bldgs 1-5
865,832
52,934
0
$25.00
$14.59 ↑
Travis Oaks
123,434
4,110
0↓
$23.50
$13.53 ↑
Vista Ridge I
67,933
1,252 ↓
0
$19.00
$11.00
Westlake Place
61,184
2,987 ↓
0
$20.00
$13.39
Wild Basin Atrium Bldg A & B
118,910
6,859
0
$18.00
$9.40
Wild Basin I
60,498
2,856
0
$19.50
$12.56 ↑
Wild Basin II
74,626
44,748 ↑
12,277
$19.50
$12.14 ↑
Building Name
56
LONG TERM PERFORMANCE OF SUBMARKETS Numbers based on CBRE statistics.
20%
6
15%
4
10%
2
5%
0
0%
Citywide Sublease Availability
5
40%
4
32%
3
24%
2
16%
1
8%
0
0%
$50 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20
Southwes t
15%
600
10%
300
5%
0
0%
CBD Dire ct Availability CBD Vacancy Rate
Northwest
2,500
30%
2,000
24%
1,500
18%
1,000
12%
500
6%
0
0%
Southwes t Di rect Avai lability Southwes t Vacancy Rate
Southwes t Su blease Availability Citywide Vacancy Rate
ABSORPTION & OCCUPANCY RATE *Absorption includes sublease space. 4
95%
3
90%
2
85%
1
80%
0
75%
-1
70%
-2
65%
Citywide
CBD
57
CBD Sublease Availability Citywide Vacancy Rate
SOUTHWEST AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
Year Over Year Direct & Sublease Absorption (Millions of SF)
$55
CBD
20%
900
Northwest Sublease Availabi lity Citywide Vacancy Rate
CITYWIDE AVERAGE CLASS A ASKING RATES
Full Service Rental Rate
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Availability (Millions of SF)
NORTHWEST AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
Northwest Direct Availability Northwest Vacancy Rate
25%
1,200
Citywide Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
Citywide Direct Availability
30%
1,500
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
8
1,800
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
25%
Direct & Sublease Occupancy Rate
30%
10
Availability (Thousands of SF)
12
CBD AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Availability (Millions of SF)
CITYWIDE AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
Northwest
Southwes t
Citywide Occupancy Rate
LONG TERM PERFORMANCE CBD VS. SUBURBAN Numbers based on CBRE statistics.
DIRECT & SUBLEASE VACANCY RATES 30%
$50
25%
$40
20%
Vacancy Rate
$60
$30 $20 $10
10% 5%
$0
0%
CBD
Su burban
CBD Vacancy Rate
Citywide
12
30%
10
25%
8
20%
6
15%
4
10%
2
5%
0
0%
CBD
Su burban
Su burban Vacancy Rate
Citywide Vacancy Rate
SF UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Citywide Vacancy Rate
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
DIRECT & SUBLEASE AVAILABILITY Direct & Sublease Availability (Millions of SF)
15%
Area Under Construction (Millions of SF)
Full Service Rental Rate
AVERAGE CLASS A ASKING RATES
4 3 2 1 0
CBD
Northwest
Southwes t
58
CBD
OVERALL PERFORMANCE CBD SUBMARKET Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
9,768,770
1,135,835
139,236
12.81%
$43.83
2015 Q2
9,809,755
870,240
291,638
10.20%
$41.90
2015 Q3
9,809,755
672,222
135,085
7.83%
$44.17
2015 Q4
9,732,884
631,228
83,341
7.07%
$43.64
2016 Q1
9,732,884
565,112
88,208
5.94%
$47.52
2016 Q2
9,954,349
706,027
25,998
7.80%
$47.93
2016 Q3
9,953,924
618,517
111,343
6.70%
$50.89
2016 Q4
9,946,701
727,763
-106,896
7.80%
*Absorption includes sublease space
NET ABSORPTION
12%
900
9%
600
6%
300
3%
0
0%
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
300
VACANCY RATES VS. RENTAL RATES
20%
$48
16%
$46
12%
$44
8%
$42
4%
$40
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
59
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
24%
$50
96%
200
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
$52
99%
250
0%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
150
93%
100
90%
50 0
87%
(50)
84%
(100) (150)
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
81%
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
Occupancy Rate
15%
1,200
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
1,500
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
2015 Q1
$51.06 Numbers based on CBRE statistics.
AUSTIN CBD OFFICE RENTAL RATE PROJECTIONS $60
3% Job Growth
$55 $50
Full Service Rental Rates
1% Job Growth $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Historic Rental Rate
2010
2011
2012
2013
3% Job Growth
AQUILA Model
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
1% Job Growth
AUSTIN CBD OFFICE VACANCY RATE PROJECTIONS 35%
11.5
801 Barton Springs Westview
11.0
Shoal Creek Walk
30%
500 W 2nd
Total Vacancy Rate
10.0 20% 9.5 15% 9.0 10%
1% Job Growth
5%
Market Size (Millions of SF)
10.5
25%
8.5
8.0
3% Job Growth 0% 2004
2005
2006
2007 Market Size
2008
2009
2010
Historic Vacancy Rate
2011
2012
AQUILA Model
2013
2014
2015
3% Job Growth
2016
2017
2018
7.5
1% Job Growth
60
NORTHWEST
OVERALL PERFORMANCE NORTHWEST OVERALL SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
17,154,310
1,879,975
138,145
11.65%
$31.84
2015 Q2
17,269,310
1,819,734
180,936
11.56%
$32.44
2015 Q3
17,269,310
1,665,124
237,697
9.96%
$33.39
2015 Q4
17,535,625
1,283,335
311,312
8.99%
$33.83
2016 Q1
18,039,828
1,868,483
136,576
11.17%
$33.70
2016 Q2
18,114,632
1,788,996
167,959
10.60%
$33.72
2016 Q3
17,913,936
1,465,141
308,550
9.03%
$33.70
2016 Q4
17,912,626
1,429,468
10,335
8.94%
$33.67
*Absorption includes sublease space
Numbers based on CBRE statistics.
15%
2,000
12%
1,500
9%
1,000
6%
500
3%
0
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
0%
$34
13%
$32
10%
$30
7%
$28
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
61
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
4%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY RATES VS. RENTAL RATES 16%
95%
450
93%
300
91%
150
89%
0
87%
(150)
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
$36
600
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
85%
Occupancy Rate
2,500
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
NET ABSORPTION
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
NORTHWEST SUBMARKET OFFICE RENTAL RATE PROJECTIONS $40
3% Job Growth
Full Service Rental Rates
$35
1% Job Growth $30
$25
$20
$15 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Historic Rental Rate
2010
2011
AQUILA Model
2012
2013
3% Job Growth
2015
2014
2016
2017
2018
1% Job Growth
NORTHWEST SUBMARKET OFFICE VACANCY RATE PROJECTIONS 30%
24.0
MoPac Centre
Domain Tower
25%
20.0
20%
16.0
15%
12.0
1% Job Growth 10%
8.0
3% Job Growth
5%
0% 2004
2005
2006
2007
Market Size
2008
2009
2010
Historic Vacancy Rate
2011
2012
AQUILA Model
2013
2014
2015
3% Job Growth
2016
2017
2018
Market Size (Millions of SF)
Total Vacancy Rate
Domain 8
4.0
0.0
1% Job Growth
62
SOUTHWEST
OVERALL PERFORMANCE SOUTHWEST OVERALL SUBMARKET PERFORMANCE Quarter
Net Rentable Area
Direct Vacant SF
Net Absorption*
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
2015 Q1
9,446,430
589,875
66,172
7.98%
$34.35
2015 Q2
10,109,725
1,070,609
21,626
12.21%
$33.76
2015 Q3
10,257,625
1,192,565
200,870
12.29%
$35.03
2015 Q4
10,484,922
769,552
131,055
9.80%
$35.85
2016 Q1
10,484,886
777,581
80,164
9.25%
$36.65
2016 Q2
10,484,886
985,849
-90,753
11.40%
$37.18
2016 Q3
10,484,922
789,995
101,770
10.40%
$38.05
2016 Q4
10,539,771
784,066
68,801
9.70%
$37.75
*Absorption includes sublease space
Numbers based on CBRE statistics.
15%
1,200
12%
900
9%
600
6%
300
3%
0
0%
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Di rect Vacant SF
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
Su blease Avai lable SF
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
15% 12%
$36
9%
$34
6%
$32
3%
$30
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
Average Class A Full Service Rental Rate
63
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
0%
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
Vacancy Rate
Rental Rate
VACANCY RATES VS. RENTAL RATES
$38
95%
200
93%
100
91%
0
89%
(100)
87%
(200)
Di rect & Subleas e Vacancy Rate
$40
300
2015 Q1
2015 Q2
Net Abs orption*
2015 Q3
2015 Q4
2016 Q1
2016 Q2
2016 Q3
2016 Q4
Di rect & Subleas e Occupancy Rate
85%
Occupancy Rate
1,500
Absorption (Thousands of SF)
NET ABSORPTION
Vacancy Rate
Availability (Thousands of SF)
AVAILABLE SF VS. VACANCY RATE
SOUTHWEST SUBMARKET OFFICE RENTAL RATE PROJECTIONS $45
3% Job Growth $40
Full Service Rental Rates
1% Job Growth $35
$30
$25
$20
$15 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Historic Rental Rate
2010
2011
2012
AQUILA Model
2013
2014
3% Job Growth
2015
2016
2017
2018
1% Job Growth
SOUTHWEST SUBMARKET OFFICE VACANCY RATE PROJECTIONS 25%
15.0
The Overlook at Barton Creek 12.0
Total Vacancy Rate
Lantana Ridge I & II Walsh Tarlton Overlook Galleria Oaks 1 & 2 15%
9.0
1% Job Growth
10%
3% Job Growth
5%
0% 2004
2005
2006
2007 Market Size
2008
2009
2010
Historic Vacancy Rate
2011
2012
AQUILA Model
2013
2014 3% Job Growth
2015
2016
2017
2018
6.0
Market Size (Millions of SF)
20%
3.0
0.0
1% Job Growth
64
THE AQUILA
METHODOLOGY
DEFINITIONS CBD Competitive Set Buildings: Class A buildings located in, or near, the core of downtown.
Suburban Competitive Set Buildings: Newer suburban office buildings that typically have structured parking and amenities such as conference rooms, workout facilities and/or delis.
Direct Vacant SF: Space that is currently vacant and immediately available to lease.
Sublease Available SF: Space that is currently available to sublease.
Direct & Sublease Vacancy Rate: (Direct Vacant SF + Sublease Available SF)/(Net Rentable Area)
Absorption: (NRA2 – Direct Vacant SF2 – Sublease Available SF2) – (NRA1 – Direct Vacant SF1 – Sublease Available SF1)
65
YOUR
NOTES:
66
YOUR
NOTES:
67
68
1717 W. Sixth Street, Suite 400 Austin, Texas 78703 512 684-3800 aquilacommercial.com 1