Antรณnio Valente Cardoso
Covid-19, football and attendances, home advantage
Index Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 3 Germany................................................................................................................................. 4 Spain........................................................................................................................................ 8 England................................................................................................................................. 12 Italy ....................................................................................................................................... 15 Serbia .................................................................................................................................... 17 Austria .................................................................................................................................. 19 Croatia .................................................................................................................................. 22 Poland ................................................................................................................................... 24 Russia.................................................................................................................................... 26 Ukraine ................................................................................................................................. 28 Greece ................................................................................................................................... 30 Denmark .............................................................................................................................. 32 Switzerland ......................................................................................................................... 34 Portugal................................................................................................................................ 36 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................... 38
2
Introduction The pandemic that stopped the entire world in 2020 brought new ways of acting, of thinking, changed all areas and sport wasn’t different. After three months of confinement, the return of football was and is still made with no attendances. This provides interesting data to understand how the home advantage really acts and feels. Whoever played football in past knows that playing at home is or was much more than just having the supporters cheering, it happens still in amateur football. Training on a daily basis on a pitch, on a field, on a stadium, allows the players to find references, very important in the set pieces, in the centers, even to shoot. Those references allow a more accurate definition. Even small holes or humps can be essential in the decision within a match when you know the pitch so well. Professional football is different nowadays. Since the 80’s the spread of club academies left the big stadia only to the matches and those references started to be lost – you need to train daily or very regularly to find them and adjust your precision with it, it’s only achievable with training, training, training! Home advantage gained further importance with the supporters and the support they give over the knowledge of the pitch by the practice in it. Naturally, in some countries home supporters are a less positive leverage and create negative pressure, which contrasts with the buildup developed in some magnificent stages, whatever the result or the club’s situation. The football return in this 2019/20 season was made without public in the stands, without attendances, and the results started to shift a little, it was created the idea that the home advantage factor was less favorable, a myth grew on it. Is it so? Do these empty stadia matches really interfere with the home advantage? It would be easy to merely compare the winning percentage of the leagues in the season, before and after the Covid-19 mandatory break, but that would give insufficient data to really observe, so this study takes a look at all the seasons in
3
the 21st century and shows the data of nearly 20 European leagues in order to have a proper analysis database. Contrary to many believes, the data vary. In some leagues it was really a record low home wins, but in others you can’t spot a difference. That can also be explained by the leagues themselves, the kind of support you witness in the stands, either booing or in absence, may also be relevant to determine the reasons, better, to infer the reasons that can explain the distinct behavior in the empty stadia. The 2020/21 season will also be an interesting subject to continue analyzing it, as the stadia will remain either fully closed to the attendances or with a marginal presence in the stands, Covid-19 oblige.
Germany Being one of the first leagues to resume the competition, Germany is also one of the most interesting cases. Bundesliga is the league with the highest average attendance and the average occupation rate is usually very proximate to the English Premier League, over 90 percent. So, a lot of people supporting the teams on a regular basis. Curiously, being the 2.Bundesliga probably the best second tier in the world, competing for the top with the English Championship, the numbers in each of the German top two tiers are opposite after the Covid-19 return, a record low home wins in the 1st Bundesliga, a number even superior to the 1st stage of 2019/20 in the 2nd Bundesliga.
4
41,94%
55,11%
59,23%
62,33%
64,66%
57,45%
64,73%
59,92%
57,02%
61,23%
58,02%
63,36%
62,02%
59,03%
68,38%
62,38%
56,82%
40%
61,83%
50%
62,88%
60%
67,23%
70%
67,51%
1.Bundesliga Average Home Wins Percentage
@by António Valente Cardoso 1.Bundesliga Average Home Wins Percentage
2019/20 BC – Before Covid-19; 2019/20 AC – After Covid-19 As it is easily seen, the beginning of the 21st century showed a very high percentage of home wins, around two thirds of the matches ending with a victory came to the home sides. The percentage scaled down a bit during the years, but usually in the 60/40 home favorable, until the 2019/20 season. The number before the Covid-19 mandated stop was already the lowest of the entire century, just above 55 percent, but the return after the Covid-19 outbreak was completely reversed from the average numbers seen since 2000 up to 2020, with the average home wins after the break and under empty stadia under 42 percent! These are merely percentages, it would be needed break the numbers, to understand the kind of matches played after the break, what was involved for each contestant. However, the fact that this was also the lowest home win average season before the pandemic stop, tends to give an easy answer, the absence of people in one of the most exciting, in all matters, including the public, football leagues in the world made a difference, took a little of the home advantage to the sides who were playing hosts! We would expect that the 2.Bundesliga would show the same kind of results. However, it wasn’t by far the case, it presented numbers similar to other seasons.
5
For anyone who really pays attention to the different levels in the football pyramid the differences are easily spotted. The football isn’t as glamorous, as open, it’s more physical, each point is even more precious, fighting for a chance to climb the ladder or to avoid drowning in the lower divisions. When you play more like that, there are less goals, each match is more levelled and you don’t take so much, so deep a full concept, idea, for rarely you get the advantage and comfortability of developing such a project. Naturally, this can only be one of the many reasons why a league with high attendances didn’t feel that absence in the return post-break. Even though the 2.Bundesliga averaged a higher number of goals scored in these last two seasons, the home advantage kept making the mark. Another reason that can explain this difference may line up with the introduction written, several teams still do their usual daily training on the pitch they play in each other weekend, or divide their routine between an academy more fitted for the youth training and the stadium, so they keep on tracking reference points, having the home advantage not only due to the crowd support, but also through the touching points, the marks.
63,64%
60,78%
58,72%
58,53%
62,84%
57,73%
60,77%
57,80%
65,12%
63,29%
61,97%
67,12%
66,82%
61,36%
59,72%
50%
61,92%
55%
66,81%
60%
64,84%
65%
61,16%
70%
63,68%
67,25%
2. Bundesliga Average Home Wins
@by António Valente Cardoso 2. Bundesliga Average Home Wins
As observed above, the German second tier had a very high number of home wins after the Covid-19 motivated stop, above the first part of the season and in
6
the higher tone of the last two decades, not far from the two thirds of home victories. Same country, same culture, within the natural regional differences, opposite results, not providing a definitive conclusion in relation with the emptiness of the stadia and the home advantage. Curiously, we’d think that the goals galore would accompany the visitor’s advantage, however the goals average decreased in the 1.Bundesliga from 1.62 per side to 1.55 while in the 2.Bundesliga the goals augmented from 1.42 per team to 1.48, the average obtained in the entire previous season and only surpassed by the initial season of this century, given the century started in 2001.
1,41 1,37 1,41
1,46
1,42
1,46
1BL Average Goals
1,38
1,42
1,48
1,55
1,42
1,48
1,38
1,32
1,47 1,43
1,62
1,24
1,45
1,25
1,29
1,40
1,36
1,32
1,39
1,42
1,31
1,37
1,38
1,41
1,49 1,34
1,59
1,58
1,28
1,47 1,47
1,30
@by António Valente Cardoso
1,57
1,70 1,60 1,50 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00
1,45
Average Goals 1BL vs. 2BL
1,43 1,40
2BL Average Goals
So, as this graphic shows, the German top tier has been increasing its goals’ average in recent years, topping the 3 goals/match average in the last two seasons. Also, the second tier has been recovering the goals momentum, nearing the numbers presented in the beginning of the century and millennium. One other reason that may justify the lesser difference in terms of home wins relates with the draws. Usually, again to a more competitive a pressured division,
7
draws are higher in the second tiers, as technical staff worries more with the point grabbing, for they have promotions and demotions, lot more to work about. The next graphic will show the comparison between both German tiers in terms of draw impact in the competition.
32,10%
23,46%
32,00%
21,78%
28,76% 23,86%
29,08%
27,12%
28,76% 24,18%
28,10% 23,20%
31,70% 26,80%
28,76%
29,41% 25,49%
20,92%
29,74%
22,55% 20,59%
25,82%
23,53%
28,43% 24,18%
31,05% 25,49%
21,90%
28,10% 25,82%
31,37%
23,20%
28,43%
28,10%
10%
21,24%
15%
23,53%
20%
22,55%
25%
23,53%
30%
25,16%
35%
22,22%
25,16%
40%
26,80%
Draw Percentage 1.BL vs 2.BL
@by AntĂłnio Valente Cardoso 1 BL
2 BL
Only in the seasons 05/06 and 09/10 the percentage of draws was lower in the German second tier comparing to the first one. The 2019/20 season peaked in the matches ending tied in the 2.BL, almost one third, before and after the Covid19 outbreak and stop. Opposite to it was the number achieved in the 1.BL, before and after the league break, at the lowest number of draws in this century, only behind three other seasons.
Spain Although the number of home wins didn’t decrease as heavily as in Germany, the Spanish La Liga also showed the 21st century lowest home wins average in the return post-Covid-19 mandatory stop. In this case the difference between the first and second stages of the season is fairly proximate to the one which
8
happened in Germany, 10 percent under the average before the stop is what could be witnessed in the return to the pitches at La Liga. The Spanish second tier, like the German one, didn’t witness that difference, no change between the before and after covid-19, even though it’s one of the lowest home wins’ average season in the 21st century.
56,25%
66,15%
62,22%
60,88%
61,86%
63,54%
59,17%
60,88%
65,73%
65,45%
68,07%
61,95%
62,12%
60,99%
68,57%
63,85%
40%
58,91%
50%
64,00%
60%
60,35%
70%
66,67%
80%
70,82%
La Liga Average Home Wins
@by António Valente Cardoso La Liga Average Home Wins
As it is easily verified, the variation of the home wins average in the 19/20 season before and after the Covid-19 mandatory break is of 10 percent under after the return. This is the lowest ever average in the 21st century, a value that can really show an impact of the absence of audience in the stadia, when both items are analyzed together, the 10 percent decrease in relation with the two thirds home wins in the first part of the season and the fact that it is the lowest average home wins in this century and millennium for the Spanish top tier. As explained above, the Spanish second tier didn’t witness that difference and the explanation is fairly equal to the one presented for the German professional leagues, matches more levelled, less goals, higher number of draws, much more balance between all the sides and the importance of grabbing a single goal, a single point, to make the main difference, as well as the fact that several teams still use the stadium as training facility during the week, which brings the
9
importance of the referential points in the matches and that can maybe also make a difference, as do the real home support, to the performances of the teams and the players.
Spanish Second Tier Average Home Wins
61,63%
61,64%
67,58%
68,04%
65,72%
63,91%
65,20%
40%
61,54%
66,28%
61,71%
66,47%
63,72%
64,89%
64,84%
64,72%
64,35%
56,67%
50%
62,96%
60%
60,94%
70%
60,31%
63,28%
80%
@by António Valente Cardoso Spanish Second Tier Average Home Wins
The variation index is much smaller than in the other tiers, there’s a curious pattern with one variation, only once in these 20 seasons the average home wins was below the 60 percent, in 04/05, and contrary to the top tier, which got at least one season average above 70 percent, here the top home wins average was in the 16/17 season, just above 68 percent. The average goals in the Spanish second tier has been decreasing in recent seasons, averaging not much above the one goal per side, 1.15 before the Covid19 mandatory stop, 1.12 after. The numbers increased as the seasons of the 21 st century happened, but there’s again a shortage of goals in recent seasons. The panorama in the Spanish top tier isn’t that different, decreasing also, nowadays with lesser goals than the Bundesliga, a visible distance, but the return after the Covid-19 stop was even worse, coming down from 1.27 per team to 1.17! If the post-Covid-19 was a season by itself it would be the 10 th worse all time in the low scoring average, clearly and by far the worse in the 21st century!
10
Average Goals per team SL1 vs. SL2 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1
1,44
1,34 1,34 1,45 1,38 1,44 1,26 1,36 1,24 1,37 1,29 1,37 1,38 1,33 1,23 1,34
1,47
1,35 1,11 1,10 1,30 1,23 1,29 1,23 1,26 1,08 1,11 1,14 1,15 1,33 1,13 1,13 1,15 1,17 1,16 1,32 1,21 1,09
1,27 1,17 1,15
1,12
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Liga Santander
Liga Smartbank
As it happens in the home wins, the variation in the average goals per side is much lower in the second tier than it is in the top Spanish league. Towards the end of the first decade there was an increase in both leagues, keeping it on the high through the first part of the second decade in this 21st century, however it has been decreasing since, with a high tone for the top tier in 16/17, but decreasing constantly nevertheless.
28,93% 27,27%
35,78%
27,78%
30,95% 28,95%
28,57% 22,63%
31,60% 23,42%
31,17% 24,21%
29,22% 23,95%
29,65% 22,63%
24,24%
25,54% 22,11%
20,79%
22,89%
25,79%
27,63%
26,32%
24,87%
10%
27,63%
15%
26,58%
20%
26,05%
25%
24,74%
31,39% 25,00%
27,71%
30,95% 21,84%
32,90%
25,76%
28,35%
35,71%
30%
28,57%
35%
35,71%
40%
30,74%
34,20%
Average Draws' Percentage SL1 vs SL2
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso SL1
SL2
11
The need for the wins, the openness of the competition, very balanced between almost all contenders, explains a little bit this clear difference between top tiers and the second tiers in each country. Halfway through the first decade of this millennium both 1st and 2nd Spanish tiers presented similar draw averages, but in the long term, as seen in Germany, the top tier as a considerably lower average draw percentage than the 2 nd Spanish league. In this atypical season, the before and after Covid-19 showed huge differences, in this case very distinct from the German numbers, with Liga Smartbank, the Spanish 2nd tier, decreasing the draws in circa 8 percent while Liga Santander kept the same numbers. However, it is worrying the decrease in goals and the increase in draws for La Liga, hitting the top in these last two seasons.
England
59,15%
59,91%
58,58%
61,57%
63,18%
57,51%
59,93%
59,27%
61,03%
67,96%
66,54%
59,58%
50%
61,13%
62,86%
64,54%
64,07%
63,37%
55%
61,40%
60%
64,48%
65%
59,14%
70%
65,95%
Premier League Average Home Wins
@by AntĂłnio Valente Cardoso Premier League Average Home Wins
The English Premier League didn’t show a significant shift either before and after the Covid-19 stop, as well as the previous seasons, this meaning that in the English case the empty stadia didn’t affect the home performances, better said, home results, comparing with the German and Spanish leagues, to name only the already evaluated ones.
12
With a peak in the end of the first decade, the average home wins in the Premier League have been pretty similar in the second decade of this millennium, showing a lower force on the home advantage in comparison to the previous decades. The Championship, curiously, showed the century’s lesser home win average in the nine matchdays after the Covid-19 stop. So, England showed numbers opposite to the German top two tiers.
Championship Average Home Wins
40%
50,00%
58,88%
61,54%
58,91%
62,09%
59,74%
57,87%
60,44%
58,56%
64,10%
61,28%
61,42%
57,58%
45%
60,89%
50%
62,00%
61,74%
60,26%
60,69%
55%
60,39%
60%
62,86%
65%
61,14%
70%
@by António Valente Cardoso Championship Average Home Wins
It’s curious to notice how similar the Championship is in the short variation, comparing with the Premier League, until this return post-Covid-19. The point importance is identical in all second tiers, which puts in perspective the idea above mentioned that tries to reason with the minor impact of the empty stadia in the performances. There are factors that also contribute – or can – specifically towards this, perhaps the playoff, but Spain also has a playoff instituted system, but that didn’t change the performance. Maybe the next season, which will be played – at least partially
13
– under closed doors or a very few margins of public, may shed a different light or bring more answers and questions related to it.
1,20 1,10
1,30 1,22 1,21 1,26
1,22 1,37 1,31
1,37
1,36
1,41
1,34
1,40
1,35
1,28
1,38
1,40
1,40
1,40
1,39
1,24
1,32
1,23
1,28
1,33
1,35 1,37 1,24 1,30
1,24
1,30
1,32
1,40
1,32
1,50
1,31
Average Team Goals Premiership vs Championship
1,35 1,29
1,21
1,30 1,34
1,33
1,31 1,28
1,31
1,32
@by AntĂłnio Valente Cardoso Premier League
Championship
The average goals have been more constant in the Premier League, with a low average in the middle of the first decade and peaking in the beginning of the second decade of this century. The balance of the championship has a bigger gap between the low, pairing with the Premiership, in the same low scoring seasons of the top tier, with a noticed difference, a constant wave without regularity. One of the lowest draws in the Premier League seasons happened in 05/06, precisely the highest peak in draws in the Championship. Interestingly, the following season witnessed the lowest ever season in draw percentage during this millennium in the English second tier. As in the goals average per team through the 21st century seasons, the average draw percentage was more even in the Premiership than in the Championship. The draw percentage decreased circa 3/4 percent in both leagues between the before and the after Covid-19 stop in the 2019/20 season.
14
21,11%
24,07%
27,70% 25,17%
29,35% 18,68%
26,81% 26,05%
23,55%
22,11%
28,62%
31,16% 28,16%
24,47%
28,26% 20,53%
26,27% 28,42%
26,81%
29,35%
26,99% 24,47%
29,21%
25,26%
25,53%
29,35%
30,98%
31,34%
22,28%
26,32%
28,95%
20,26%
10%
28,42%
15%
23,68%
20%
26,58%
26,58%
25%
25,79%
29,35%
26,27%
30%
25,91%
35%
25,36%
26,81%
Average Draws Premiership vs Championship
@by António Valente Cardoso Premier League Average Draws
Championship Average Draws
Italy In Italy there wasn’t also a significant change between the values prior to the Covid-19 outbreak and mandatory stop and the ones achieved after the football return in the Serie A. It’s true that the home wins average is fewer than in previous seasons, however it hasn’t decreased since the first part of the 19/20 season and there are a couple of other sporting years with a similar outcome.
55,32%
52,74%
61,03%
61,67%
61,40%
55,22%
50%
58,46%
62,41%
62,32%
64,31%
66,91%
67,37%
65,30%
65,04%
64,71%
65,10%
66,82%
63,25%
55%
61,11%
60%
63,93%
65%
65,60%
Lega Serie A Average Home Wins 70%
@by António Valente Cardoso Lega Serie A Average Home Wins
15
It is impossible to give a special relation between the home win averages and the outbreak in the 19/20 season when the number during the season is the lowest ever in the 21st century, specially before the league stop. It is, nevertheless, an interesting point of view, over 10 percent under the cumulative average of the previous seasons, only comparing to the 18/19 season. The myth concerning the defensiveness of the Italian top league continues to be spread through many so-called experts, clearly overrated in their capacities and giving speeches with an outdated knowledge foundation. It is true that the predominance of the Italian league in European football was achieved using two factors, the tactical-defensive capability and the ban imposed to the English clubs. The end of the 80’s and the 90’s were years of very physical and defensive football, fewer goals, poor spectacles, which led the IFAB to change some rules in order to try and make football more appealing and offensive. This took some time to be adjusted and other leagues also longed to overpass it. The shift in the technical way of thinking, the training evolution and revolution, the growth in the football thinking changed football and Spain, Germany, England and other footballs schools took over. It took the Italians nearly a decade to understand they had been overpassed and a new generation of managers emerged, bringing positive ideas, attractive and offensive football, changing the methods and the procedures. Lega Serie A became much more interesting to watch. That happened in the beginning of the second decade of this century, 2012, 2013, and it can be seen in the outcomes, in the average goals, in the European performances and in the export of Italian managers too.
Average Goals per Team Serie A 1,80
1,65
1,46
1,34
1,34
1,48
1,29
1,35
1,36
1,32
1,28
1,26
1,31
1,30
1,28
1,28
1,30
1,33
1,26
1,00
1,29
1,20
1,32
1,40
1,38
1,60
@by AntĂłnio Valente Cardoso Average Goals per Team Serie A
16
As seen through this average of goals per side in each season, the numbers start to rise a little since the 12/13 season, with only one season below the 1,3 goals per team. The 19/20 season peaked this goal average.
21,67%
22,69%
28,42%
21,84%
21,05%
25,00%
31,58%
23,68%
25,26%
29,21%
25,53%
26,84%
25,00%
29,47%
30,00%
28,42%
32,89%
23,72%
24,24%
22,93%
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
23,16%
Average Draws per Season - Serie A
@by António Valente Cardoso Average Draws per Season - Serie A
The draw percentage as been very irregular during the Italian top tier football seasons, with highs and lows successively falling one another, making it hard to link this final result to a more offensive or defensive mentality.
62,96%
63,69% 2019/2…
58,18% 2019/2…
65,25% 2018/19
2017/18
60,67%
60,85%
@by António Valente Cardoso
2016/17
60,44% 2015/16
65,91% 2014/15
56,59%
65,38% 2013/14
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2002/03
2003/04
2001/02
2000/01
40%
2012/13
61,45%
66,67%
67,61%
59,86%
50%
64,05%
67,20%
65,79%
67,55%
60%
69,58%
70%
Serbian League Average Home Wins 72,84%
80%
78,35%
Serbia
Serbian League Average Home Wins
Contrary to other leagues assessed, in Serbia the return after the Covid-19 motivated stop didn’t change the values. Truth be told, there were only 4 matches played per side, without the ‘playoff’ season that has been happening after the
17
30 matches regular calendar, so it’s a very short process to place it as a strong valid point to prove the empty stadia didn’t affect the performances. Also, in Serbia there’s not much attendances, it has been losing public in several former big houses. Despite showing a decrease since the beginning of the century in the home wins average, which had a very heavy weight in the performances when there was still Serbia and Montenegro league, several seasons previous to 2019/20 presented lower percentages comparing to the Covid-19 first season. It is very interesting to notice that despite the null change in the home wins average post-Covid-19, the 4 matchdays played after the return gave the highest ever goal average per side in the 21st century, by far, half a goal above the accumulated average of these 20 seasons combined!
1,69 1,34
1,18
1,35
1,21
1,20
1,16
1,16
1,19
1,10
1,05
1,11
1,09
1,18
1,12
1,18
1,30
1,18
1,30
1,26
1,70 1,60 1,50 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00
1,42
Average Goals per Team - Serbia
@by António Valente Cardoso Average Goals per Team - Serbia
As one of the leagues with fewer goals scored on average per match in European football, very defensive, very physical, with the managers not taking full advantage of their natural talented players, unlike the neighbor and former
15,63%
19,23%
25,68%
20,27%
19,26%
28,38%
24,17%
26,67%
22,71%
24,17%
25,42%
23,75%
30% 20% 10%
16,99% 24,18% 21,57% 21,67% 20,83% 21,25% 20,31% 29,17% 29,17%
Average Draw Percentage - Serbia
@by António Valente Cardoso Average Draw Percentage - Serbia
18
federal partner in the Yugoslav territory, Croatia, it was an almost unnatural set of matches in terms of goalscoring for this competition! With a shortage of goals in Serbia, we might think there was a prolific percentage of draws. However, that isn’t what happens. Apart from the end of the first decade, when Montenegro split from Serbia and the championship was reduced from 18 clubs to 12. The growth towards the 16 teams that compose the Serbian Superliga, with the exception of the 2020/21 season, due to the Covid-19 outbreak, which will witness a higher number of competitors, reduced the draws’ average and in recent seasons the percentage was below 20, so less than 1/5 of the matches ended in a draw. Regardless of this, the end of season, short as it was, presented an even lower percentage of draws. In this case accordingly with the higher number of goals scored. Usually higher goals mean less draws, but that’s also not a definite conclusion.
Austria The league where the stadia emptiness felt the most, if it can be related with the results, was the Austrian Bundesliga, where the return after the Covid-19 mandatory stop saw the lowest average home win, just over one third of the matches ending in victory to one of the sides resulted in home win, 38 percent in 10 matchdays is a very low average with a sufficient amount of games to have a good measurement, contrary to the Serbian assessment, for instance.
Austrian Bundesliga Average Home Wins Percentage
38,30%
47,47% 2019/20 AC
53,42% 2019/20 BC
59,44%
2018/19
63,01%
@by António Valente Cardoso
2017/18
62,96% 2016/17
60,29% 2015/16
58,02% 2014/15
57,55% 2013/14
55,81%
64,96% 2012/13
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2011/12
67,65%
69,23%
70,31%
69,63%
65,93%
65,67%
68,94%
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
30%
2010/11
40%
59,09%
50%
61,19%
60%
68,66%
70%
Austrian Bundesliga Average Home Wins Percentage
19
Like the other leagues overviewed, in the Austrian Bundesliga the value of the home win has been decreasing through the years, perhaps explained as mentioned above by the huge shift in the clubs daily routines, now most of them owning training facilities where the squad trains usually, with losing the home ground knowledge advantage by training there on a daily basis. In the first decade the home wins averaged round two thirds of the overall victories in each season. In the second decade it decreased to circa 60 percent. The Austrian second tier copies the other leagues, the home advantage has been decreasing in the numbers and the growth to 16 sides appears to balance even more the sides and lower the home advantage measurable values.
52,17%
48,18%
55,80%
57,89%
54,89%
40%
49,65%
56,82%
58,70%
61,31%
65,00%
58,13%
61,84%
63,51%
64,49%
57,58%
45%
61,44%
50%
62,99%
55%
60,00%
60%
67,12%
65%
60,87%
70%
64,71%
Austrian 2 Liga Average Home Wins
@by António Valente Cardoso Austrian 2 Liga Average Home Wins
Although the 2019/20 was the lowest averaged home wins seasons, it’s very interesting to notice that the number before the Covid-19 stop is lower than the percentage achieved in the remaining 11 matchdays played after the outbreak start. Despite the points difference between clubs in the first stop, still it casts doubts over the home advantage impact, but it’s important to notice there are several ‘Amateure’ or feeder/farm clubs, where there’s never a big attendance, and naturally it’s a league with lesser attendances, usual in the lower tiers, which takes a bit of that linkage, the weight of home attendances in the better performances. Below the comparison between both Austrian tiers. Contrary to other countries, the Austrian 2nd league has numbers relatively similar to the Austrian Bundesliga, in several seasons with the home advantage being even smaller in the 2nd tier.
20
38,30% 52,17%
47,47%
48,18%
55,80%
57,89% 53,42%
59,44%
54,89%
49,65% 63,01%
62,96%
60,29%
56,82%
58,70%
61,31% 58,02%
57,58% 57,55%
64,96%
55,81%
65,00%
58,13%
61,44%
69,23%
67,65%
61,84%
63,51% 70,31%
64,49%
69,63%
62,99%
65,93%
64,71%
60,00% 65,67%
30%
68,94%
40%
59,09%
50%
68,66%
60%
61,19%
60,87%
70%
67,12%
Austrian Average Home Wins 1BL vs 2L 80%
@by António Valente Cardoso BL
2L
And how they fare in goals? The amount of goals tends to ally itself with a higher number of wins in comparison with the draws. It’s not a fully scientific assessment, however facts to correlate both when analyzing the leagues and teams’ performances.
1,22
1,33 1,36
1,66 1,49
1,41
1,43
1,47
1,46
1,32
1,53
1,49
1,46
1,47 1,30
1,44
1,73
1,58
1,65
1,44
1,361,35 1,301,34 1,33 1,33 1,31 1,37
1,46
1,63
1,40
1,49
1,48
1,37
1,40
1,44
1,46
1,73
1,48
1,80 1,70 1,60 1,50 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00
1,54
Austrian Average Goals per Team BL vs 2L
1,56
1,45
@by António Valente Cardoso BL
2L
In the first decade of the 21st century the numbers in both leagues were very regular, growing towards the end of it. The second decade is much more irregular in both of them, with an absolute peak in the last season, the Bundesliga reaching
21
1,73 before the Covid-19 mandatory stop and the 2 Liga averaging precisely the same in the remaining matchdays after the stop. Curiously, there’s a tendence of lesser goals in the second tiers, however in Austria even that is contrary, with the average of the second league outscoring the average of the Bundesliga.
27,63%
24,58%
26,11%
21,59% 21,67%
25%
23,96%
20,56%
26,11% 18,89%
20,56% 25%
26,67% 24,44%
23,89%
26,67%
23,33% 27,22%
22,78%
22,22%
35%
22,73%
23,23%
25,25%
23,33%
29,44%
25%
18,89%
24,44%
19,19%
28,33%
24,44%
20,56%
28,89%
25%
25%
10%
25,56%
15%
26,67%
20%
26,67%
25%
25,56%
30%
25,56%
35%
23,33%
Average Draw Percentage BL vs 2L
@by António Valente Cardoso BL
2L
While the Bundesliga experienced again a very regular first decade, spiking during the second one, the Austrian 2nd League balanced a lot, going from under to 20 percent to almost 30 percent in 2 years – 3 seasons apart only. The 2019/20 season showed a difference here, both leagues presented a higher average draw percentage comparing with the more recent seasons before the stop, but lowered that average considerably in the return, even with a goal decrease in the Bundesliga.
Croatia Croatia has been trying to find the best fit for the country in terms of league. The huge dominance of Dinamo Zagreb and the loss of power of the main rival Hajduk Split takes energy to the league, which lowers the quality and doesn’t attract investors and big clubs to hire – they do it already in the academies because the Croatian sporting talent is vastly known. Although several models tried, the balance doesn’t shift and there was only a couple of exceptions. Football is followed but not so much locally and in the stands, the diversity of sporting offers and the success and genesis of other sports, handball, basketball,
22
water polo, volleyball, tennis, athletics, swimming, skiing, takes crowds from the stadia, however, taken out the 18/19 season, which saw a 21st century low in the home wins percentage, there is a clear difference in the home matches before and after the covid-19 outbreak, in the season itself and also comparing with the previous years.
57,89%
69,70%
54,35%
62,96%
61,31%
67,16%
62,40%
50%
61,31%
65,31%
65,73%
68,89%
67,74%
74,00%
66,48%
55%
65,43%
66,01%
60%
70,21%
65%
72,37%
70%
69,63%
75%
66,67%
80%
76,06%
Average Home Wins Percentage - Croatia
@by António Valente Cardoso Average Home Wins Percentage - Croatia
1,42
1,17
1,28
1,14
1,21
1,38
1,44
1,43 1,23
1,32
1,45
1,42
1,35
1,35
1,21
1,00
1,11
1,10
1,31
1,20
1,38
1,30
1,36
1,40
Croatia - Average Goals per Team 1,42
1,50
1,43
As observed in other leagues – and the final comparison will better show it, with all leagues’ numbers viewed together – the Croatian league keeps up with the norm, the home win average has been decreasing in the second decade of the 21st century.
@by António Valente Cardoso Croatia - Average Goals per Team
23
The average goals scored per side has varied a lot in these scrutinized seasons, after a first decade relatively levelled. The beginning of the second decade gave the lowest scoring average and even if the numbers closed into the best of the first decade in some seasons, they’re mediating with very low numbers. The 2019/20 season showed a sufficient to mediocre average goals before the stop, decreasing by a tenth after the return.
Croatia - Average Draws Percentage
24,00%
23,85%
23,33%
25,00%
23,89%
30,56%
25,56%
23,89%
25,76%
25,83%
26,67%
25,00%
21,72%
24,24%
26,04%
18,18%
10%
21,09%
15%
26,56%
20%
20,83%
25%
20,42%
30%
26,56%
35%
@by AntĂłnio Valente Cardoso Croatia - Average Draws Percentage
The draws average percentage peaked in the 15/16 season, having the lowest average in the 06/07 season. The average draws can be fixed around a quarter of the matches in these 20 seasons observed.
Poland One of the most underrated leagues in European football, the Polish football always served great players to the Western leagues. They keep scouting and recruiting young talents there. Ekstraklasa is very physical but doesn’t lose the technical component, has intensity and good matches, entertaining. Poland was one of the first leagues that understood the need for more internal competition and a shift in the format, so it was added a sort of play-off system, with the top 8 and the bottom 8 playing an additional leg, seven matches, to decide the title and European positions, on the top, and the demotion on the bottom.
24
In Poland there was also a clear distinction between the home advantage before and after Covid-19, a decrease of near 10 percent but not the lowest average of the century.
56,72%
65,00%
59,38%
61,32%
60,18%
57,97%
62,96%
64,25%
54,80%
61,14%
68,89%
61,71%
65,75%
63,44%
63,74%
64,16%
66,67%
67,63%
63,54%
66,88%
70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40%
65,41%
Ekstraklasa Average Home Wins Percentage
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Ekstraklasa Average Home Wins Percentage
1,26
1,38
1,39
1,32
1,37
1,31
1,33
1,25 1,10
1,20
1,11
1,09
1,20
1,30 1,16
1,33
Ekstraklasa - Average Goals per Team 1,37
1,37
1,35
1,25
1,40 1,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00
1,29
As stated above regarding different leagues, the Polish Ekstraklasa also witnessed a decrease in the home power advantage. In the first decade of this millennium the average wins percentage neared the two thirds of all matches ending in a win, numbers that have been decreasing in the second decade, not too much but clearly.
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Ekstraklasa - Average Goals per Team
25
The goal numbers per team aren’t that exciting, however the numbers have been growing since the entrance of the playoff model in the Polish league, clearly improving from the worrying low numbers in the transition between decades and the early second decade of this century. In this particular evaluation, there’s also an increase of over a tenth between the values before the Covid-19 stop and after the return in the 19/20 season.
Ekstraklasa - Average Draws Percentage
23,86%
23,08%
24,32%
25,34%
28,38%
30,07% 27,03%
28,38%
26,25%
27,08%
25,00%
27,08% 24,58%
22,50%
22,53%
22%
23,63%
24%
22,92%
26%
24,58%
28%
27,92%
28,57%
30%
28,75%
32%
20%
@by António Valente Cardoso Ekstraklasa - Average Draws Percentage
The average draw percentage varies notably in the Polish Ekstraklasa, spiking throughout the seasons, with lows and highs very close to each other, however it is to underline the fact that the present season, 19/20, showed the lowest average draw percentage in the second decade of the 21st century. If the goals average has been increasing with the added playoff, the draw percentage started higher than before, only decreasing in the two most recent seasons.
Russia Russia started the century with a civil year league, as do most northern countries, but shifted to an intermediate yearly season in order to try and better behave in the European competitions when the decisive stages, elimination rounds, arrive. This was an interesting decision but didn’t improve too much the performance as the winter stop keeps happening and the teams enter that stage with basically three months of zero competition, which could be amended with some changes, but that is not for this paper.
26
In Russia the 19/20 season also witnessed the lowest ever average home wins percentage, in spite of the increase in that value after the return.
52,17%
50,39%
60,59%
57,23%
64,00%
56,65%
59,22%
58,66%
60,75%
57,66%
64,33%
61,33%
71,26%
68,29%
67,25%
40%
56,36%
50%
59,65%
60%
67,80%
70%
59,22%
64,41%
80%
69,32%
Russian PL Average Home Wins Percentage
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Russian PL Average Home Wins Percentage
The evolution during both decades is relatively similar, with ups and downs, but more linear in the most recent one and with a lower average percentage of home wins.
1,28
1,19
1,13
1,13
1,07
1,23
1,21
1,28
1,31
1,19
1,17
1,25
1,20
1,17
1,22
1,12
1,25
1,27
1,21
1,26
1,50 1,30 1,10 0,90 0,70 0,50
1,21
Russian PL Average goals per Team
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Russian PL Average goals per Team
As most Eastern European major leagues, the Russian top football championship has a low goal average, peaking in the 21st century at 2,62 goals per match in the 12/13 season.
27
If there was an increase in the home wins average during this atypical season, the number of goals went up by over a tenth, a good growth when comparing with the 3 previous seasons. The Russian league still lacks the understanding that there’s a need for change too, to bring foreign managers and to adjust to those ideas, bringing the league to the current state of football. It is tremendously important to do so in order to get back on track and also to attract talents not only via huge wages.
Russian PL Average Draws Percentage
28,13%
26,70%
29,17%
27,92%
27,08%
27,92%
25,42%
25,42%
22,50%
29,55%
28,75%
31,25%
30,42%
31,67%
28,75%
28,75%
26,25%
24,58%
20%
25,42%
25%
26,67%
30%
26,25%
35%
@by António Valente Cardoso Russian PL Average Draws Percentage
The draw percentage in the Russian league is high, which follows and concurs with the previous data shown, low goals average, for instance. With the exception of the 2009 year and the 12/13 season, the average draw percentage was always above 25 percent, a quarter of all matches played, being the 12/13 season the higher in the goals average per squad, that says something.
Ukraine Despite being in Eastern Europe, the Ukrainian league has been playing the transitional season for a while, not doing the civil year. As in Russia, there’s nevertheless the problem of the long winter stop, which usually interferes with a better performance in the European competitions. The Covid-19 stop and the return with empty stands didn’t make much difference in the home wins. It is important to notice that the invasion of the Donetsk Oblast and the occupation of the Crimea Peninsula by Russia left several teams homeless, now playing in other cities, which probably explains the lowering numbers of the average home wins percentage in recent years.
28
54,05%
55,36%
48,30%
55,97%
55,56%
52,55%
58,27%
59,63%
62,57%
54,75%
57,69%
63,93%
60,33%
40%
56,59%
63,91%
59,56%
63,28%
50%
71,43%
60%
68,98%
70%
61,43%
80%
67,91%
Ukrainian PL Average Home Wins Percentage
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Ukrainian PL Average Home Wins Percentage
In the Ukrainian top tier the average win percentage numbers were higher in the first decade of the century, as in the majority of the observed leagues, with a solid decrease still in that decade, reinforced in the second decade and in the 18/19 season even below the half, meaning there were more foreign than home wins! The numbers in the 19/20 season are similar to the ones in the last five seasons.
1,59
1,30
1,23
1,15
1,16
1,26
1,33
1,31
1,29
1,27
1,27
1,24
1,15
1,17
1,07
1,15
1,06
1,16
1,22
1,16
1,50 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00 0,90
1,23
Ukrainian PL Average Goals per Team
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Ukrainian PL Average Goals per Team
As stated above, Eastern European leagues tend to be too worrying because of the low number of goals average. In Ukraine the numbers are close to the ones in Russia, Serbia or Poland, below the Western European leagues.
29
After hitting a low average between 2016 and 2018, with a small increase in 18/29, the Ukrainian league averaged the highest number of goals per side in this century during the 19/20 season, peaking in the return post-Covid-19 stop, with an average of over 3 goals per match in the matches played after the return.
Ukrainian PL - Average Draws Percentage
22,92%
18,84%
23,44%
30,21%
24,48%
24,73%
29,67%
23,33%
15%
22,08%
25,42%
24,17%
23,75%
23,33%
24,17%
29,58%
26,25%
27,08%
23,75%
20%
22,08%
25%
23,08%
30%
26,37%
35%
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Ukrainian PL - Average Draws Percentage
The draw percentage shows a fairly regular pattern in Ukraine, with the decade transition barely shifting. The 2019/20 season brought the lowest ever draw percentage in this millennium, even if the numbers increased in the return after the Covid-19 stop.
Greece
52,78%
65,67%
64,88%
66,67%
62,70%
0%
60,80%
70,39%
72,15%
64,41%
63,59%
62,86%
65,76%
67,39%
64,04%
71,74%
66,86%
59,41%
20%
62,30%
40%
63,59%
60%
69,85%
80%
70,05%
Greek SL Average Home Wins Percentage
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Greek SL Average Home Wins Percentage
30
Greece showed the lowest ever home win average percentage in the return after the Covid-19 stop, which says a lot in a country and a league where the home ground plays a huge part, witnessed in loco and confirmed by the numbers analyzed. It’s a huge gap, since Greece presents usually a two third of the winning matches are home victorious.
Greek SL Average Goals per Team
1,06
1,22
1,14
1,10
1,16
1,13
1,24
1,27 1,07
1,11
1,10
1,17
1,08
1,17
1,16
1,16
1,16
1,31
1,29
1,44
1,50 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00 0,90 0,80
1,49
Even if the numbers have been decreasing since the start of the century, as in the other leagues, Greece still offers one of the highest numbers in the home wins average within the European football.
@by António Valente Cardoso Greek SL Average Goals per Team
The century started with a good goal average in the Greek top football league, however the numbers decreased enormously and it is one of the championships with the lowest rates in goal scoring. The first part of the 19/20 season presented an up in this item, comparing with the four previous years, however the return after the stop ended up with the lowest ever scoring average in the 21st century, circa 2,12 goals per match. As seen in other countries, the Greek league has been losing attendances in the football league, now – before the outbreak – showing higher numbers in the basketball domes stands than in the football grounds, for instance. Recent years saw a renewal in some of the clubs to better rival Olympiacos, however the club continues to be prevalent in the league and there are too many incidents and problems, which distances even further the supporters from the matches. It is crucial for the Greek league to stabilize, to show security all around and attractiveness in the pitch, upping the positive emotion, developed with more interesting matches.
31
Greek SL Average Draws Percentage 40%
37,93% 2019/20 AC
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso
2019/20 BC
2018/19
22,92%
26,37%
30,00%
27,50% 2017/18
26,67% 2016/17
23,53% 2015/16
22,55% 2014/15
26,25% 2013/14
23,33% 2012/13
27,08% 2011/12
23,33% 2010/11
29,17% 2009/10
23,33% 2008/09
29,58%
2006/07 23,33% 25,83% 2007/08
2000/01
20%
2005/06
25%
2003/04 23,33% 2004/05 23,75%
30%
2001/02 22,08% 25,27% 2002/03
35%
Greek SL Average Draws Percentage
As the goals average dropped to an ever low in the second part of the 19/20 season, the draws reached an all-time 21st century high, over one third of the matches ending in a tie between the sides in contention, curiously just one season after one of the lowest draw average percentage in this century.
Denmark Denmark shows numbers more even, with the home factor not as prevailing as other leagues, but the return after the Covid-19 motivated stop presented basically a 50/50 factor in the wins, between home and away.
50,98%
62,12%
57,31%
62,50%
57,23%
58,33%
60,14%
56,85%
57,05%
57,97%
55,26%
61,11%
64,38%
56,67%
59,59%
64,00%
54,29%
20,00%
57,96%
40,00%
52,78%
60,00%
55,94%
80,00%
62,07%
Danish SL Average Home Wins Percentage
0,00%
@by Antรณnio Valente Cardoso Danish SL Average Home Wins Percentage
32
Unlike the other European leagues observed, the Denmark Superliga started the 21st century with very even numbers in the home wins average, growing throughout the seasons but with very regular sequences. The 19/20 season presented one of the highest percentages in the first part of the season, but dropped heavily to 50 percent in the second half of it.
1,40
1,40
1,39
1,44
1,33
1,39
1,21
1,37
1,42
1,36
1,35
1,30
1,37
1,37
1,40
1,40
1,46
1,52
1,57
1,45
1,60 1,50 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00
1,49
Danish SL Average Goals per Team
@by AntĂłnio Valente Cardoso Danish SL Average Goals per Team
The goals average has been decreasing, contrary to the majority of the other European leagues, since the start of the century, however the high values that started the millennium didn’t decrease too much, there was a bottom reference in the 14/15 season but like in the home winning percentage the evolution is fairly regular.
Danish SL Average Draw Percentage
25,01%
21,43%
27,55%
25,43%
26,70%
21,21%
25,25%
29,29%
26,26%
24,75%
30,30%
23,23%
27,27%
26,26%
26,26%
24,24%
24,24%
15%
20,71%
20%
26,77%
25%
27,27%
30%
27,78%
35%
@by AntĂłnio Valente Cardoso Danish SL Average Draw Percentage
33
The percentage of draws increased in the second stage of the 19/20 season after a first part with one of the lowest averages in this 21st century. The numbers are more regularly around the quarter of the matches ending in a draw with some spikes and lows.
Switzerland The average home wins percentage in the Swiss return after the Covid-19 mandatory stop was only topped by the first season of this century, contrary to all other leagues viewed, where in most cases there was a decreased and the increases that happened were reduced, not in this heavy margin, from 54 to 68 percent in the same season, contradicting completely the model that underlines this document, not only there wasn’t an prejudicial effect in playing ‘home alone’, the home teams grabbed way more wins than before.
68,75%
54,02% 2019/20 AC
55,56% 2019/20 BC
53,19% 2018/19
55,80% 2017/18
60,15%
@by António Valente Cardoso
2016/17
57,58% 2015/16
58,99% 2014/15
62,22% 2013/14
57,38% 2012/13
55,81% 2011/12
65,56% 2010/11
64,44% 2009/10
66,92% 2008/09
62,69% 2007/08
62,22% 2006/07
64,08%
61,40% 2005/06
2003/04
2004/05
2002/03
69,23% 2000/01 2001/02
70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40%
63,24% 67,42%
Swiss SL Average Home Wins Percentage
Swiss SL Average Home Wins Percentage
If the 19/20 season broke the norm, the evolution of the curve in the 21st century seasons is relatively similar to the ones observed in other leagues, the first decade with a higher home percentage win and levelling a little bit more in the second decade. It becomes a bit more difficult to find a pattern or a direct correlation between the stadia emptiness and the teams’ performances, even although the points highlighted throughout this analysis also serve as explanation, the public pressure, that in several countries is negative, the usual training in the pitches, if it’s still done regularly it allows the focal points to be defined and that sharpen the precision in each movement, pass, shot. Where it is known that the
34
supporters really positively back their sides there was an effect and the home wins dropped in the after Covid-19 stop return.
1,58
1,46
1,53
1,51
1,62
1,57
1,44
1,44
1,28
1,00
1,31
1,49
1,66
1,50
1,45
1,31
1,20
1,44
1,56
1,63
1,40
1,52
1,60
1,46
1,80
1,67
Swiss SL Average Goals per Team
@by António Valente Cardoso Swiss SL Average Goals per Team
In terms of goals, the Swiss top tier has been very consistent on a high note, averaging over 3 goals per match in several seasons and near it in others. The last five seasons the Swiss Super league average always over 1,5 goals per team and the 19/20 split increased the shots on target successful performance.
10%
26,15%
24,35%
25,00%
21,67%
23,33%
26,11%
26,67%
22,78%
25,00%
24,69%
28,33%
25,00%
27,78%
25,00%
29,63%
25,56%
16,11%
15%
21,11%
20%
22,61%
25%
24,18%
30%
25,41%
Swiss SL Average Draw Percentage
@by António Valente Cardoso Swiss SL Average Draw Percentage
The draw percentage didn’t shift a lot before and after the break, despite the notable increase in the goals scored. Most of the Swiss seasons surround the 25 percent draw in the matches played.
35
Portugal In Portugal the home weight increased between the first and second half of the 19/20 season, yet another league where the empty stadia didn’t affect much, again in a competition with low attendances and negative pressure from the stands whenever the match doesn’t go so well.
59,70%
53,75%
58,61%
64,49%
60,18%
57,83%
61,99%
60,00%
57,54%
61,50%
58,05%
60,47%
60,80%
65,45%
59,77%
60,87%
63,76%
66,38%
66,52%
67,97%
70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40%
66,95%
Portugal Liga NOS Average Home Wins Percentage
@by António Valente Cardoso Portugal Liga NOS Average Home Wins Percentage
As noticed in the other leagues under scrutiny, the Portuguese football top tier also witnessed a decrease throughout the seasons in the home wins percentage. The 19/20 season, before the mandatory stop, was showing the lowest ever home win average percentage in this century, augmenting to near 60 percent after the return.
1,34
1,21
1,35
1,35
1,19
0,50
1,36
1,25
1,19
1,39
1,32
1,22
1,25
1,15
1,15
1,20
1,11
1,16
1,32
1,34
1,19
1,00
Portugal Liga NOS - Average Goals per Team 1,32
1,50
0,00
@by António Valente Cardoso Portugal Liga NOS - Average Goals per Team
36
In Portugal there’s also a need to increase the show presented to the audience. It’s true that we can’t measure the quality of a league merely through the amount of goals, however the primary purpose of the sport is to score, not to not suffer, it is to score and that’s what needs to be addressed. The goal number increased interestingly between the two halves of the 19/20 season, however more is needed, still a low average.
Portugal Liga NOS - Average Draw Percentage
25,56%
25,93%
20,26%
26,14%
19,93%
0%
24,84%
27,78%
25,00%
25,42%
27,50%
28,33%
26,67%
31,25%
27,50%
24,84%
28,76%
24,18%
22,08%
10%
27,78%
20%
24,51%
30%
23,86%
40%
@by António Valente Cardoso Portugal Liga NOS - Average Draw Percentage
The draws percentage didn’t suffer a change in between the split of the 19/20 season, increasing from the two previous seasons. After two seasons showing the lowest ever draw percentage in the 21 st century, with around a fifth of the games played ending in a draw, 19/20 returned to the quarter of matches finishing with a tie between both sides.
37
Conclusion Despite not finding one-way data to confirm the negative effects on the home performances with empty stadia, it’s a fact that in the leagues analyzed the majority, particularly in the top tiers, there’s a decreased in the home wins after the Covid-19 stop.
Average Home Wins Percentage 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55%
50% 45%
Ger1
Esp1
Eng1
Srb
Ita
Aut1
Cro
Pol
Rus
Ukr
Gre
Dnk
Swi
Por
2019/20 AC
2019/20 BC
2018/19
2017/18
2016/17
2015/16
2014/15
2013/14
2012/13
2011/12
2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2003/04
2004/05
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
40%
Ger2
Esp2
Eng2
Aut2
Two thirds of the evaluated leagues had a decreased in the home wins during the 19/20 season before and after the Covid-19 mandatory stop. Some were marginal, either in the low or on the high, other were significant. With a lot of spikes, it can be seen that there’s a general diminution of the home wins percentage throughout the years analyzed.
38
Average Home Wins Percentage 80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45% 40%
Ger1
Esp1
Eng1
Srb
Ita
Aut1
Cro
Pol
Rus
Ukr
Gre
Dnk
Swi
Por
Ger2
Esp2
Eng2
Aut2
19/20 19/20 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 BC AC Ger1 67,51 67,23 62,88 68,38 61,83 62,38 59,03 62,72 63,36 56,82 58,02 61,23 57,02 59,92 64,73 57,45 64,66 62,33 59,23 55,11 41,94 Esp1 70,82 66,67 64,00 60,35 68,57 58,91 60,99 62,12 61,95 68,07 65,45 65,73 63,85 60,88 59,17 63,54 61,86 60,88 62,22 66,15 56,25 Eng1 65,95 59,14 64,48 61,40 64,07 63,37 64,54 62,86 61,13 67,96 66,54 59,58 61,03 59,27 59,93 57,51 63,18 61,57 58,58 59,91 59,15 Srb
78,35 72,84 69,58 67,55 65,79 67,20 64,05 59,86 67,61 66,67 61,45 56,59 65,38 65,91 60,44 60,85 60,67 65,25 58,18 63,69 62,96
Ita
65,60 63,93 66,82 61,11 65,10 64,71 65,04 65,30 67,37 66,91 63,25 64,31 62,32 62,41 58,46 61,40 61,67 55,22 61,03 52,74 55,32
Aut1 68,66 61,19 59,09 68,94 65,67 65,93 69,63 70,31 69,23 67,65 55,81 64,96 57,55 58,02 60,29 62,96 63,01 59,44 53,42 47,47 38,30 Cro
66,67 69,63 72,37 70,21 76,06 66,01 65,43 74,00 67,74 68,89 66,48 65,73 65,31 61,31 67,16 62,40 61,31 62,96 54,35 69,70 57,89
Pol
65,41 66,88 63,54 67,63 66,67 64,16 63,74 63,44 65,75 61,71 68,89 61,14 54,80 64,25 62,96 57,97 60,18 61,32 59,38 65,00 56,72
Rus 64,41 69,32 59,22 67,80 59,65 67,25 68,29 71,26 56,36 61,33 64,33 57,66 60,75 58,66 59,22 56,65 64,00 57,23 60,59 50,39 52,17 Ukr 61,43 67,91 68,98 71,43 63,28 59,56 63,91 56,59 60,33 63,93 57,69 54,75 62,57 59,63 58,27 52,55 55,56 55,97 48,30 55,36 54,05 Gre 70,05 69,85 63,59 62,30 66,86 71,74 64,04 67,39 59,41 65,76 62,86 63,59 64,41 72,15 70,39 60,80 66,67 64,88 62,70 65,67 52,78 Dnk 55,94 52,78 62,07 57,96 64,00 59,59 56,67 64,38 61,11 55,26 57,97 57,05 56,85 54,29 60,14 58,33 57,23 62,50 57,31 62,12 50,98 Swi 69,23 63,24 67,42 64,08 61,40 62,22 62,69 66,92 64,44 65,56 55,81 57,38 62,22 58,99 57,58 60,15 55,80 53,19 55,56 54,02 68,75 Por
66,95 67,97 66,52 66,38 63,76 60,87 59,77 65,45 60,80 60,47 58,05 61,50 57,54 60,00 61,99 57,83 60,18 64,49 58,61 53,75 59,70
Ger2 67,25 63,68 61,16 64,84 66,81 61,92 61,36 66,82 67,12 61,97 63,29 65,12 59,72 57,80 60,77 57,73 62,84 58,53 58,72 60,78 63,64 Esp2 63,28 60,31 60,94 62,96 56,67 64,35 64,72 64,84 64,89 63,72 66,47 61,71 66,28 61,54 63,91 65,72 68,04 67,58 65,20 61,64 61,63 Eng2 63,64 64,36 60,77 60,98 60,36 62,55 62,54 61,88 61,20 64,35 61,49 59,44 60,61 57,33 59,49 60,98 63,72 59,15 63,24 59,71 48,03 Aut2 60,87 64,71 67,12 60,00 62,99 64,49 63,51 61,84 61,44 58,13 65,00 57,58 61,31 58,70 56,82 49,65 54,89 57,89 55,80 48,18 52,17
39
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 BC 2019/20 AC 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 BC 2019/20 AC
Ger1 67.51 67.23 62.88 68.38 61.83 62.38 59.03 62.72 63.36 56.82 58.02 61.23 57.02 59.92 64.73 57.45 64.66 62.33 59.23 55.11 41.94 Ukr 61.43 67.91 68.98 71.43 63.28 59.56 63.91 56.59 60.33 63.93 57.69 54.75 62.57 59.63 58.27 52.55 55.56 55.97 48.30 55.36 54.05
Esp1 70.82 66.67 64.00 60.35 68.57 58.91 60.99 62.12 61.95 68.07 65.45 65.73 63.85 60.88 59.17 63.54 61.86 60.88 62.22 66.15 56.25 Gre 70.05 69.85 63.59 62.30 66.86 71.74 64.04 67.39 59.41 65.76 62.86 63.59 64.41 72.15 70.39 60.80 66.67 64.88 62.70 65.67 52.78
Eng1 65.95 59.14 64.48 61.40 64.07 63.37 64.54 62.86 61.13 67.96 66.54 59.58 61.03 59.27 59.93 57.51 63.18 61.57 58.58 59.91 59.15 Dnk 55.94 52.78 62.07 57.96 64.00 59.59 56.67 64.38 61.11 55.26 57.97 57.05 56.85 54.29 60.14 58.33 57.23 62.50 57.31 62.12 50.98
Srb 78.35 72.84 69.58 67.55 65.79 67.20 64.05 59.86 67.61 66.67 61.45 56.59 65.38 65.91 60.44 60.85 60.67 65.25 58.18 63.69 62.96 Swi 69.23 63.24 67.42 64.08 61.40 62.22 62.69 66.92 64.44 65.56 55.81 57.38 62.22 58.99 57.58 60.15 55.80 53.19 55.56 54.02 68.75
Ita 65.60 63.93 66.82 61.11 65.10 64.71 65.04 65.30 67.37 66.91 63.25 64.31 62.32 62.41 58.46 61.40 61.67 55.22 61.03 52.74 55.32 Por 66.95 67.97 66.52 66.38 63.76 60.87 59.77 65.45 60.80 60.47 58.05 61.50 57.54 60.00 61.99 57.83 60.18 64.49 58.61 53.75 59.70
Aut1 68.66 61.19 59.09 68.94 65.67 65.93 69.63 70.31 69.23 67.65 55.81 64.96 57.55 58.02 60.29 62.96 63.01 59.44 53.42 47.47 38.30 Ger2 67.25 63.68 61.16 64.84 66.81 61.92 61.36 66.82 67.12 61.97 63.29 65.12 59.72 57.80 60.77 57.73 62.84 58.53 58.72 60.78 63.64
Cro 66.67 69.63 72.37 70.21 76.06 66.01 65.43 74.00 67.74 68.89 66.48 65.73 65.31 61.31 67.16 62.40 61.31 62.96 54.35 69.70 57.89 Esp2 63.28 60.31 60.94 62.96 56.67 64.35 64.72 64.84 64.89 63.72 66.47 61.71 66.28 61.54 63.91 65.72 68.04 67.58 65.20 61.64 61.63
Pol 65.41 66.88 63.54 67.63 66.67 64.16 63.74 63.44 65.75 61.71 68.89 61.14 54.84 64.25 62.96 57.97 60.18 61.32 59.38 65.00 56.72 Eng2 61.14 62.86 60.39 60.69 60.26 61.74 62.00 61.42 61.28 64.10 60.89 58.56 60.44 57.58 57.87 59.74 62.09 58.91 61.54 58.88 50.00
Rus 64.41 69.32 59.22 67.80 59.65 67.25 68.29 71.26 56.36 61.33 64.33 57.66 60.75 58.66 59.22 56.65 64.00 57.23 60.59 50.39 52.17 Aut2 60.87 64.71 67.12 60.00 62.99 64.49 63.51 61.84 61.44 58.13 65.00 57.58 61.31 58.70 56.82 49.65 54.89 57.89 55.80 48.18 52.17
40
As seen by the graphics and the table numbers, the 21st century witnesses a noticeable decrease in the home advantage, measured by the home wins average percentage, naturally. This helps confirming a football evolution served in several leagues and how it is happening, how the coaching schools and ideas shifted, but also how the lesser training in the main stadium and the move to the academies can help explain this decline of the home ground advantage. Everything needs to be put into context, numbers and stats can only be interpreted knowing the subject, analyzing it, having the practical view and insight on it. Football, as other sports and areas, is always evolving and the tendency is to be overpassed if you stop in time. Most leagues and models saw that and only a poor performance or a set of bad international performances mandates an update, happened in Germany after the 2000 Euro debacle. Also, the knowledge of a need to change can set up the upgrading, as did Italy from 2012, 2013 on, after finally realizing the 90’s success was a distant memory and the league was losing attendances, money and international power. Some do, some don’t, often the minor leagues, countries and coaching schools follow the references and when you witness a successful new idea the tendency is to try and adapt it to context. The first decade of the 21st century was still breathing from the 90’s, the Italian defensive and physical domination, but the growth and rise of ambitious new names like Mourinho, Guardiola, Löw, Klopp, helped to shape new football models, more attractive, more offensive, with the rise of the average goals also helping to prove that change. There are a lot of measurable and unmeasurable effects that can determine the success, the more attractive match, the home advantage or disadvantage, the higher number of goals or draws, but the central focus of this analysis was to try and determine whether the empty stands caused a real impact in the home performances, or contributed to it. The numbers say yes, the absence of supporters can partially explain the drop in home wins as it happened in two thirds of the reviewed leagues. In Germany, Spain, Austria, Croatia, Poland, Greece, Denmark top tiers and in the English Championship the decrease between the 19/20 season before the Covid-19 mandatory break and the return is pretty significant, which reinforces the idea of the strong impact of the home advantage with the supporters in the stands.
41
