ORANGE COUNTY
COMMUNITY
INDICATORS
2021- 2022
TABLE OF CONTENTS 05
ORA N GE COU N TY PRO F ILE Place/Land Use..................................... 6 People/Demographics/Diversity........... 8 International Residents....................... 12 Education/STEM/Colleges................. 13 Economy/Business Community.......... 14 Travel & Tourism................................. 23 Quality of Life..................................... 25
29
SP E CIA L SE CTION Future of Work and COVID Demographics.............................. 30 Remote Work and Housing................ 59 Note on Data Availability.................... 74
77
E CON OM Y Employment....................................... 78 Diversity in Business........................... 84 High-Tech Diversity and Growth......... 85
87
HOU SIN G Housing Landscape............................ 88 Housing Affordability.......................... 91 Rental Affordability............................. 94 Housing Security................................. 98
1 0 1 IN COM E Household Income........................... 102 Family Financial Stability.................. 105
2
109 EDUC AT IO N Kindergarten Readiness.................... 110 Social-Emotional Development........ 113 High School Graduation Rate........... 114 STEM-related Degrees..................... 117
119 HEALT H Health Care Access........................... 120 Chronic Disease................................ 123 Mental Health & Substance Use....... 126
131 INF RAS T RUCT URE Transportation................................... 132 Water Use & Supply.......................... 137 Drought Status.................................. 141 Broadband Internet Access.............. 143
147 G O VERNANCE & CIVIC ENGAGEMENT Voter Participation............................ 148
DEAR COMMUNITY PARTNER Orange County Business Council, First 5 Orange County, Orange County United Way, CalOptima, and the Orange County Community Foundation are pleased to present 2021– 22 Orange County Community Indicators. An informed indicator reveals a region’s performance, showing whether key areas are improving, worsening, or remaining constant. The indicators in this report track a comprehensive range of issues important to Orange County’s long-term health and prosperity, highlighting areas where the county is performing well and making progress as well as those areas where improvement is needed and community efforts could positively impact the future. We also compare Orange County to “peer” counties within California and across the nation based on the many characteristics we have in common. While this structure hasworkedwellsincethefirstannualepo r rtwaselr easedin2010,someadjustmentshave been made to address the continuing impacts of COVID-19. This year’s report features a detailed look at the long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic for Orange County, exploring shifts in consumer behavior, the mainstreaming of remote work, and digitization of the workplace and how these changes could potentially influence the county’s housing market. The insights of theepo r rt can help guide ongoing pandemic response and highlight areas where Orange County can focus resources and efforts during recovery. s always, the findings in the epo r rt are intended to serve as a starting point for further dialogue and collaboration. In working together to ensure a resilient OC, we hope you will use 2021–22 Orange County Community Indicators as a thought-provoking resource and guide that helps position the region as a front-runner in addressing the challenges facing communities across the country. Please share the report with others interested in sustaining the county’s long-term health and high quality of life and securing a promising future for all who call Orange County home.
Sincerely,
SUSAN B. PARKS
LUCY DUNN
SHELLEY M. HOSS
KIMBERLY GOLL
President and CEO President and CEO President and CEO President and CEO Orange County Orange County Orange County First 5 United Way Business Council Community Orange County Foundation
RICHARD SANCHEZ Chief Executive Officer CalOptima
3
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS C O NTRIBU TIN G PA RTN ERS
O R A NGE COU N TY COMMUNIT Y INDIC AT O RS PRO JECT S PO NSO R S TITLE SPONSOR
PLATINUM SPONSOR
GOLD SPONSORS
SILVER SPONSORS
BROOKFIELD PROPERTIES
SDG&E
2021-2022 ORANGE COUNTY COMMUNITY INDICATORS TEAM Dr. Wallace Walrod, OCBC BenjaminPalmer,SEEDConsulting Robert Walrod, OCBC Kathy Corpuz, OCBC Abbi Brown, OCBC Natalie Rubalcava, OCBC Lauren Martin, OCBC Jeff Corless, Venture Strategic Chelsea Shay, Venture Strategic
4
COX COMMUNICATIONS
SPECTRUM
REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Curt Condon, Orange County Health Care Agency Diana Ehrle, Orange County Department of Education Kari Parsons, Parsons Consulting Lisa Burke, First 5 Orange County Limor Zimskind, Datalink Partners Kevin Hostert, Municipal Water District of Orange County Travon Martin, Ontario International Airport Debra Kegel, CalOptima
ORANGE COUNTY PROFILE
PLACE/LAND USE
799
Southern California, home to 22 million people in 209 cities spread over 42,00 square miles, experienced significant impacts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, yet recent economic trends suggest a recovery has already begun to materialize. Effectively, the pandemic served to test the resilience of many regional economies as government mandates forced business closures while providing comparatively lite in financial support. Nevertheless, businesses implemented innovative strategies to comply with ever-changing regulations while residents wrestled with their new normal of distance-learning and work-from-home. Alongside multiple vaccine rollouts and a better understanding of the virus, daily cases across the nation began to shrink rapidly while additional federal stimulus helped buoy consumer spending, and eviction moratoriums kept people in their homes. With vaccination rates ranging from 45.9 percent in San Diego County to 57.6 percent in Ventura County as of August 23, 2021,1 and the reopening gaining speed, Southern California’s diversified industry base and inovation industry clusters will help to bring economic activity back to and surpass pre-pandemic levels.
land area (square miles)
42
miles of coastline
3,947
persons per square mile
34
cities and several large unincorporated areas Orange County has
8%
of California’s population but only
0.5%
of its land area.
1
6
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations_vacc-total-admin-rate-total
S O U T H E R N CA LIFORN IA A N D O RANGE CO UNT Y C IT IES , 2021
Orange ,County whose population toaled 3,153,764, faced significant challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, many stemming from its status as a global tourist destination. Disneyland and other tourist destinations were shut down for most of 2020 and much of 2021, for instance, and national and international travel remain well below pre-pandemic levels. The county’s strong and diverse economy, however, enabled it to withstand the economic downturn and begin an economic recovery fueled in large part by its well-educated workforce.
PO P U L AT I O N DE N SITY
COUNTY POPULATION PER SQUARE MILE, 2021
Orange County had an average population density of 3,947 residents per square mile, 5.7 percent more than in 2010. Orange County is significantly denser than neighboring counties, as seen to the right.
COUNTY
POPULATION PER SQUARE MILE
Orange
3,947
Los Angeles
2,475
Riverside
341
San Bernardino
108
San Diego
788
California (Statewide)
253
Sources: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit
7
PEOPLE/DEMOGRAPHICS/DIVERSITY
3,153,764
Population 2021
3,166,309
Population 2060
0.40%
Percent Growth
Orange County’s Population Shrinks Slightly in 2021 Orange County’s population declined by over 25,000 residents between 2020 and 2021, but it remains the state’s third largest county, after Los Angeles and San Diego, with more residents than Arkansas, Kansas, and 16 other states.
Increasingly Older and More Diverse Orange County’s median age reached 38.6 years in 2019, higher than both the state (37 years) and national (38.5 years) median ages as well as an increase of 0.3 years over its median age in 2018. Meanwhile, the proportion of Asian, Latino, and African American communities increased since 2010 by approximately 17, 7, and 1 percent, respectively, while the proportion of White communities fell by 10 percent over the same time period.
International Migration Surpasses Natural Increase as Driver of Population Growth While natural increase — the number of births minus deaths in a given region — has driven Orange County’s growth for decades, international migration outpaced natural increase in 2020 fother firsttimesince19Or90. angeadded County anestimated12,930internationalimgrants in 2020 compared to a natural increase of only 12,869, with a negative net domestic migration of over30,00,afiguer seen not since207.sexpled or elsewherethisn epo r rt,OrangeCounty’s skyrocketing housing costs remain the primary reason for its negative net migration (and negative population growth in 2020).
8
Residents aged 65 and older are the only segment of the population expected to see growth between 2021 and 2060, eventually representing 27 percent of the county’s population.
P O P U L AT I O N 6 5 + TO CON TIN UE T O EX PAND 30%
25%
27% 25%
27% 22% 22%
20% 17% 15%
15%
10%
14%
8% 7%
7% 7%
5%
0% 202 1 0- 5
206 0 6- 17
18- 24
25- 44
45- 64
65+
Sources: California Department of Finance. Demographic Research Unit. Report P-2B: Population Projections by Individual Year of Age, California Counties, 2010-2060 (Baseline 2019 Population Projections; Vintage 2020 Release). Sacramento: California. April 2021
LATINO COMMUNITIES SET TO EXPAND OVER NEXT FEW DECADES P R O J E C T E D CHA N G E BY RA CIA L AND ET HNIC GRO UPS A S P R O P O RTION S OF THE TOTAL O RANGE CO UNT Y P O P U L AT I O N , 2 0 2 1 A N D 2 0 6 0 45. 0% 40. 0%
41.4%
40.3% 35.9%
35.7%
35. 0% 30. 0% 25. 0% 18.2%
20. 0%
17.1%
15. 0% 10. 0% 5. 0% 0. 0% 202 1
206 0 Whi te
Lat ino
Asi an
Sources: California Department of Finance. Demographic Research Unit. Report P-2D: Population Projections by Total Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Race, California Counties, 2010-2060 (Baseline 2019 Population Projections; Vintage 2020 Release). Sacramento: California. March 2021.
DIVERSITY: ORANGE COUNTY’S DIVERSE COMMUNITIES ARE A KEY STRENGTH
Orange County’s Latino communities are expected to grow from representing 36 percent of the population in 2021 to 40 percent by 2060. White and Asian communities are expected to decline by 5.5 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points, respectively.
9
Orange County Scores Highest Diversity Index in Southern California The United States Census Bureau’s Diversity Index (DI) measures “the probability that two people chosen at random will be from different race and ethnicity groups…. A value close to 1 indicates that everyone in the population has different racial and ethnic characteristics.”2 The United States average is 61.1 percent, up from 54.9 percent in 2020, while California’s statewide average was 67.7percen2010in t and69.7percenCal 20. in t iforniafinishedsecondthein natdiin o versi,ty after Hawaii, in both 2010 and 2020. The nation’s ten most diverse states in 2020 were: 1. Hawaii (76.0 percent);
6. Texas (67.0 percent);
2. California (69.7 percent);
7. New Jersey (65.8 percent);
3. Nevada (68.8 percent);
8. New York (65.8 percent);
4. Maryland (67.3 percent);
9. Georgia (64.1 percent); and
5. District of Columbia (67.2 percent);
10. Florida (64.1 percent).
Orange County, as seen in the chart below, had a DI of 69.2 percent in 2020, which ranked 9th out of California’s 58 counties. (Orange County’s DI was 66.0 percent in 2010 for 10th in the state.) It finishedfirstamongcountiesoutsidetheBayea r andthusfirstSoin utherCal n iforniaaswell. of Orange County’s neighbors finished lower on the list in 20: San Diego County at 11th, Los Angeles County at 13th, Riverside County at 15th, and San Bernardino County at 16th.
TO P 1 0 CA LIFORN IA CO UNT IES BY DIVERS IT Y INDEX, 2020 78% 76%
75.6%
75.1%
Diversity Index
74%
73.3%
73.0% 71.5%
72%
71.2%
70.4%
70.1%
70%
%2.96
69.1%
68% 66%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Racial and Ethnic Diversity in the United States: 2010 Census and 2020 Census
2
10
https://public.tableau.com/shared/3ZKNJZHXS?:showVizHome=no
Su t te r
e ra ng O
Cl ar a Sa nt a
Fr an ci sc o
in
Sa n
Jo aq u
Sa n
M at eo Sa n
Sa cr am en to Co nt ra Co st a
Al am ed a
So la no
64%
D I V E R SI TY I N DE X BY CA LIFORNIA CO UNT Y
11
INTERNATIONAL RESIDENTS
30%
of county residents were born in other countries
Orange County has the nation’s fourth largest international population with approximately 949,825 foreign-born residents and is home to 2.1 percent of the nation’s international population and 8.9 percent of the state’s international population.
47%
of all residents over age five speak a language other than English at home
FOREIGN-BORN POPULATIONS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ORANGE COUNTY FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION METRICS BY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COUNTY
TOP 10 COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN
FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION
% FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION
Los Angeles
3,401,887
33.9%
Orange
949,825
San Diego
COUNTY
COUNTRY
POPULATION IN ORANGE COUNTY
Mexico
303,095
Vietnam
141,724
29.9%
China
84,079
761,933
22.8%
Korea
68,686
San Bernardino
468,907
21.5%
Philippines
59,126
Riverside
525,953
21.3%
India
33,341
Iran
27,400
Taiwan
26,254
El Salvador
20,128
Canada
11,009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table B05006
ORANGE COUNTY BOASTS HIGHEST INCOME AND LOWEST POVERTY AMONG REGIONAL NEIGHBORS
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year Estimates, Table B05006
B Y T H E NU M BE RS SN A P SH O T: O RANGE CO UNT Y C HARACT ERIS T ICS C O M PA RE D TO RE G ION A L PEERS , 2021 COUNTY
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
MEDIAN AGE
POVERTY LEVEL (%)
MEAN COMMUTE TIME (IN MINUTES)
FOREIGN-BORN POPULATION (%)
Orange
$95,934
38.6
9.4%
28.3
29.9%
San Diego
$83,985
36.4
10.3%
27.2
22.8%
Los Angeles
$72,797
37.0
13.4%
32.8
33.9%
Riverside
$73,260
36.2
11.3%
35.7
21.3%
San Bernardino
$67,903
33.8
13.3%
31.9
21.5%
California (Statewide)
$80,440
37.0
11.8%
30.7
26.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year Estimates
12
EDUCATION/STEM/COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES: Orange County is Highly Educated Total STEM-related bachelor’s and graduate degrees conferred by Orange County colleges and universities totaled 14,448, representing 42.8 percent of all degrees conferred in Orange County in 2020. Since 2010, STEM-related degree conferrals in Orange County have increased by 68 percent or by an annual average of 5.4 percent. Orange County’s high levels of education, as seen in the chart bel,ow wil be a major asset in the economic recovery from COVID-19.
14%
of adults over age 25 have less than a high school diploma
41%
of adults over age 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher
O R A NG E C O U N TY E DU CATION AL AT TAINMENT C O MPARED T O PEER RE G I O N S BACHELOR’S DEGREE OR HIGHER
PERCENT GRADUATE OR PROFESSIONAL DEGREE
Orange County
41.0%
15.2%
San Diego County
39.9%
15.4%
California
35.0%
13.1%
Los Angeles County
33.8%
11.5%
United States
33.1%
12.8%
Riverside County
23.5%
8.5%
San Bernardino County
22.5%
7.9%
REGION
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table S1501
13
Unemployment Rates Steadily Decline, Indicating A Sustainable Recovery
$95,934
Median household income (2019)
6.3%
Unemployment rate (July 2021)
$1,090,000
Median existing single-family home price (July 2021)
ECONOMY/BUSINESS COMMUNITY/LABOR MARKET ORANGE COUNTY’S ECONOMY DEMONSTRATING RESILIENCE IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY
Employment SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATES LAG NATIONAL AVERAGES ORA N GE C O UNT Y INC O ME AND RATE REGIO NAL CO MPARIS O N
UNEMPL O Y M E NT
REGION
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JULY 2021)
Orange
$95,934
6.30%
Los Angeles
$72,797
10.20%
Riverside
$73,260
7.90%
San Bernardino
$67,903
8.00%
San Diego
$83,985
6.90%
California
$80,440
7.90%
United States
$65,712
5.70%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table B19013; California Employment Development Department
14
Unemployment Trends Impacting Middle Age Populations the Most Despite accelerated vaccine rollouts and economic re-opening plans, unemployment continues to impact communities across the region. Residents aged 25-34 have the county’s highest unemployment rate (28.4 percent for a total of 28,555 unemployed individuals) followed by residents aged 35-44 (19.1 percent or a total of almost 20,000 residents).
O R A NG E C O U N TY U N E M P LOYMENT BY AGE C O HO RT (JULY 2021) 30, 000
35. 0% 30. 0%
29%
25. 0%
20, 000 20%
20. 0%
15, 000
16%
15. 0%
10, 000
10. 0%
9%
8% 5, 000
Percent of Age Cohort
Number of Unemployed
25, 000
7%
6%
5%
0
5. 0% 0. 0%
< 22
22- 24
25- 34
35- 44
Unemployme nt
45- 54
55- 59
60- 64
65+
% of Age Cohort
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International
O R A NG E C O U N TY U N E M P LOYMENT BY ET HNIC IT Y AND RAC E ( JU LY 2 0 2 1 ) 70. 0%
59%
60, 000
51%
49%
50, 000
50. 0%
40, 000
40. 0%
27%
30, 000
30. 0%
20, 000
20. 0%
11%
10, 000
2%
A
an ic er m
an di In
an sk la
e iv at N
10. 0%
0%
0
A or
60. 0%
A
n sia
A
N
n ca fri
e iv at
A
an ic er m
n ia ai aw H
or
e th O
c ifi ac rP
I
er nd sla
Unemployme nt
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International
Percent of Age Cohort
Number of Unemployed
70, 000
0. 0% te hi W
o in at
ic an isp H
L or
N
c ni pa is H ot
o
o in at rL
% of Age Cohort
15
Number of Net Commuters into Orange County Grows from 167,000 to Over 200,000 in Three Years I N FLOW /OU TFLOW PAT T ERNS O F O RANGE CO UNT Y W ORKE RS A N D RE SID ENT S , 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, OnTheMap Application and LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics
ORANGE COUNTY’S LARGEST EMPLOYERS WILL PLAY KEY ROLE IN RECOVERY LARGEST EMPLOYERS IN ORANGE COUNTY, 2021 COMPANY
EMPLOYMENT IN ORANGE COUNTY
COMPANY
EMPLOYMENT IN ORANGE COUNTY
The Walt Disney Co. University of California, Irvine County of Orange Providence Albertsons Southern California Division Kaiser Permanente Hoag Memorial Hospital Presbyterian
28,000 25,512 18,543 12,866
MemorialCare Edwards Lifesciences Corp. Bank of America Corp. Boeing Co.
5,500 5,319 5,000 5,000
8,159
California State University, Fullerton
4,349
8,050
Home Depot Inc.
4,300
6,710
Allied Universal
4,152
Walmart Inc.
6,400
Target Corp. Yum Brands Inc.
6,000 5,600
16
Children’s Hospital of Orange County Costco Wholesale Corp. loanDepot
4,107 4,011 4,000
Source: Orange County Business Journal, 2021 Book of Lists
Orange County’s Diverse Industry Sectors MANUFACTURING AND HEALTHCARE IN CENTRAL OC, PROFESSIONAL AND TECHNICAL DOMINATE IN SOUTH AND ALONG COAST
DO MI N A NT IN DU STRY BY CE N S US T RACT IN O R A NG E C O U N TY, 2 0 2 1
Orange County has the nation’s third most diverse mix of hightech sectors, as seen below. The following table highlights the region’s most concentrated industries communicated through ‘location quotients’ — a measure which indicates how concentrated an industry is in a given region compared to the national average. An industry with a score of 5 means that this industry is 5 times more concentrated in a given region than the national average.
T O P O R A NG E COU N TY IN DU ST RIES BY LO CAT IO N QUO T IENT, 2021 INDUSTRIES
LOCATION INDUSTRIES QUOTIENT
LOCATION QUOTIENT
Nonferrous Forging
13.91 10.52 10.19
Dental Laboratories
9.81
Men’s and Boys’ Cut and Sew Apparel Manufacturing
6.22
Dental Equipment and Supplies Manufacturing
8.55
Other Lighting Equipment Manufacturing
5.81
Electromedical and Electrotherapeutic Apparatus Manufacturing
8.49
Electronic Connector Manufacturing
5.69
Computer Storage Device Manufacturing
7.61
Industrial Design Services
5.66
Bare Printed Circuit Board Manufacturing
7.49
Computer Terminal and Other Computer Peripheral Equipment Manufacturing
5.54
Surgical and Medical Instrument Manufacturing
7.18
Biomass Electric Power Generation
5.46
Plumbing Fixture Fitting and Trim Manufacturing
6.80
Guided Missile and Space Vehicle Manufacturing
5.20
Amusement and Theme Parks Other Apparel Knitting Mills
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International
Fluid Power Pump and Motor Manufacturing Bolt, Nut, Screw, Rivet, and Washer Manufacturing Family Planning Centers
6.61 6.51 6.24
17
TheU.S.ClusterMappingProject — a Different Look at Orange County Industry Clusters TheU.S.ClusterMappingProject,acolaboratbet ion weentheU.S.EconomicDevelopmendmt instration and the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness at Harvard Business School, provides another snapshot of Orange County industry clusters using slightly different methodology for measuring industry concentration and output. I colects and analyzes metrics including labor product,ivty job growth, location qutents, wages, and many other metrics to determine industry concentration. Using this indicator, Orange County’s most concentrated industry clusters included: • Medical Device (5.30)
• Information Technology (1.87)
• Apparel Manufacturing (2.32)
• Hospitality and Tourism (1.86)
• Biopharmaceuticals (2.04)
• Communications (1.73)
• Lighting and Electrical Equipment (1.90)
• Financial Services (1.62)
O R A N G E C OU N TY N ATION A LLY LEADING INDUS T RY C LUS T ERS REGION
EMPLOYMENT
NATIONAL RANK
LOCATION QUOTIENT
Medical Devices
17,231
1
5.30
Apparel
2,976
3
2.32
Biopharmaceuticals
6,970
7
2.04
Lighting
6,915
2
1.90
Information Technology
30,527
5
1.87
Hospitality and Tourism
77,547
4
1.86
Communications
9,697
8
1.73
Financial Services
38,257
6
1.62
Source: U.S. Cluster Mapping, U.S. Department of Commerce, Economic Development Administration, Harvard Business School
18
Businesses of All Sizes Thrive in Orange County 96 PERCENT OF ALL OC BUSINESSES ARE CONSIDERED SMALL BUSINESSES In Orange County, small businesses employing under 50 people accounted for 96 percent of all business in the region and accounted for 45 percent of all employees. Approximately 168 businesses in the region employ more than 500 people while 65 businesses employ over 1,000 people.
N U MB E R O F BU SIN E SSE S A N D EMPLO YEES , BY S IZE O F B U SI N E SS, 2 0 2 0 100,000 90,000
208,567
80,000 151,699
60,000 115,851
127,754
123,542
150,000
105,177
40,000
100,000 69,752
30,000 15,925
20,000
11,125
10,000
50,000 7,668
2,617
0 0-4
5-9
10-19
Employees
Businesses
200,000
182,059
70,000
50,000
250,000
229,416
88,609
20-49
1,389
369
103
65
0
50-99 100-249 250-499 500-999 1,,0 000+
Number of Employees
Number of Businesses
Source: California Employment Development Department, Size of Business Data 2020
19
Orange County Compared: OCSignficaneroM ylt Prduo ctevi Perapi C a t ThanRegial no Peers GROSS REGIONAL PRODUCT DECLINES ACROSS THE REGION IN 2020 Orange County’s gross regional product (GRP), a county-level measure of gross domestic product (GDP), fell from $309 billion in 2019 to $262 billion in 2020, representing a decline of nearly 15 percent resulting from pandemic-related economic declines. Despite this, Orange County remains one of the most productive regions in Southern California, generating over $328 million in economic activity per square mile. If Orange County was a state, it would be the 24th largest state by GRP output, just behind Wisconsin, Missouri, and Connecticut, while ahead of 27 other states including Oregon, Louisiana, and South Carolina. Despite San Diego having over 150,000 more residents, Orange County had nearly 50,000 more employed residents making it the second largest labor market in Southern California, behind only Los Angeles County. As a result of its largest labor market and comparatively smaller geographic region, Orange County boasts a staggering 2,194 employees per square mile, well above Los Angeles County (1,237 employees per square mile) and San Diego County (405 employees per square mile).
G R O SS R E GION A L P RODU CT AND EMPLO YMENT CO MPARIS O N BY S O U TH E R N CA LIFORN IA COU NT Y, 2020 TOTAL POPULATION
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
TOTAL REGIONAL PRODUCT ($ IN B)
EMPLOYMENT PER CAPITA
GRP PER CAPITA
GRP PER SQUARE MILE
EMPLOYMENT PER SQUARE MILE
San Diego
3,315,404
1,702,504
$252
0.51
$75,890
$59,806,656
405
San Bernardino
2,175,909
876,419
$98
0.40
$44,980
$4,879,664
44
Riverside
2,454,453
850,569
$90
0.35
$36,537
$12,445,104
118
Orange
3,153,764
1,753,352
$262
0.56
$83,150
$328,204,102
2,194
Los Angeles
10,044,458
5,018,070
$766
0.50
$76,255
$188,747,052
1,237
COUNTY
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International; California State University, Fullerton
20
EMP L O Y M E N T P E R SQ U A RE M ILE BY S O UT HERN C ALIF O RNIA C O U NTY, 2 02 1
G R O S S R E G ION A L P RODU CT ( GRP) PER S QUARE MILE BY S O U T H E R N CA LIFORN IA COU NT Y, 2021
21
OCBX Recovers Yet Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Levels California State University, Fullerton’s Orange County Business Expectation Index (OCBX) fell and recovered dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching a low of 22.7 in Q2 2020 before rising to 80.9 in Q4 2020. The index fell to 71.6 in Q1 2021, before increasing to 95.3 and 96.4 in Q2 and Q3 2021, respectively, indicating renewed optimism for future economic growth and act. cco ivty dir ng to he survey sumar,y inflation was the primary concern for executives indicating that employers are beginning to be less concerned with the effects of the COVID-19 andemor concernedwithecuenr teconomicandfinanciallandscapepost-pandemic.
30 20
95.3 96.4 80.9 71.6
90.7
22.7
40
18.1 17.8 15.2 22.7 30.8
50
29.1 37.3
60
46.3
48.8 53.3
70
62.9
80
72.8 70.5 75
90
77.9
65.2 60.6 60 71.4 80.9 70
100
91.6 93.9 85.2 88.8 88.1 83.8 85.7 91.5 92 81.7 83.8 82.6 85.3 79.4 84.4 97.9 92.4 93.2 88.2 95.2 94.4 98.1 96.2 89.5 91.3 87.1 90.9 92.9
ORANGE COUNTY BUSINESS EXPECTATION INDEX, Q1 2008 – Q3 2021
10
An index above 50 indicates expansion Source: California State University, Fullerton
22
Q3 2021
Q1 2021
Q3 2020
Q1 2020
Q3 2019
Q1 2019
Q3 2018
Q1 2018
Q3 2017
Q1 2017
Q3 2016
Q1 2016
Q3 2015
Q1 2015
Q3 2014
Q1 2014
Q3 2013
Q1 2013
Q3 2012
Q1 2012
Q3 2011
Q1 2011
Q3 2010
Q1 2010
Q3 2009
Q1 2009
Q3 2008
Q1 2008
0
TRAVEL AND TOURISM T O TA L M O NTH LY PA SSE N GE RS S ERVED AT JO HN WAY NE A I R PORT, JA N U A RY 2 0 19 – JUNE 2021 1, 000, 000
PASSENGER VOLUME AT JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT RECOVERING
900 ,00 0 819,392 800 ,00 0
730,144
764,506
Total Passengers
700 ,00 0 600 ,00 0 500 ,00 0 400 ,00 0 300 ,00 0 200 ,00 0 100 ,00 0 0 9 9 19 -1 -1 nar ay Ja M M
25,313 9 0 0 9 19 20 -2 -1 -2 l -1 npar ay ov Ju Ja M Se N M
0 1 1 0 20 21 -2 -2 -2 l -2 npar ay ov Ju Ja Se M N M
Source: OCair.com
The majority of visitors in Orange County came from in-state egi r ons (39.2 percent) followed by Arizona (11.6 percent), Nevada (6.3 percent), and Texas (5.4 percent). Over the past year, total visitors from California have increased by 27.1 percent and by 4.1 percent and 2.4 percent from Arizona and Nevada, respectively. When looking at visitors from within California, visitors from neighboring counties such as San Diego and Los Angeles have increased year-overyear while visitors from regions further away, including San Francisco and Sacramento counties, have declined. This indicates that travelers may feel safer driving rather than traveling on more crowded transportation options such as airplanes. Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Salt Lake City had the highest share of visitors into Orange County from out-of-state regions at 16.4 percent, 9.2 percent, and 4.8 percent, respectively.
As COVID case numbers declinedintherst half of 2021 and travel restrictions began to soften, travelers once againfeltsafetoyand book vacations. With Disneyland reopening in late April and dropping mask requirements for vaccinated visitors in mid-June, alongside restaurants and entertainment venues being fully re-opened, Orange County’s tourism industry is slowly regaining strength. Total passengers at John Wayne Airport declined from 764,506 in February 2020 to 25,313 by April 2020, a decline of 96 percent. As of June 2021, passengers at John Wayne Airport totaled 730,144, only 5 percent below its February 2020 totals.
23
1.9%
1.9%
2.3%
2.7%
2.8%
10%
2.9%
20%
5.4%
30%
6.3% 2.4%
40%
11.6% 4.1%
50%
39.2% 27.1%
O R A NGE COU N TY V ISIT O R S HARE BY S TAT E AND YEAR- O VER - Y E A R CHANGE, Q1 2021
Vis itor Share
Il l in oi s
-26.0%
n re go O
Fl or id a
o
W as hi ng to n
Ut ah
Te xa s
N ev ad a
na Ar izo
Ca lif o
rn ia
-5 0%
Co lo ra d
-4 0%
-40.9%
-3 0%
-22.8%
-19.8%
-2 0%
-11.3%
-5.2%
-1 0%
-20.5%
0%
YoY P erce nt Change
Source: VisitCalifornia, Domestic Visitor Profiles, Q1 2021
O R A N G E C OU N TY V ISITORS SHARE AND YEAR- O VER- YEAR CHANGE B Y ME T R O R E G ION S IN-STATE METRO REGIONS
OUT-OF-STATE METRO REGIONS
VISITOR SHARE
YOY PERCENT CHANGE
VISITOR SHARE
YOY PERCENT CHANGE
San Francisco
20.7%
-27.0%
Phoenix, AZ
16.4%
16.9%
San Diego
17.1%
32.1%
Las Vegas, NV
9.2%
20.2%
Sacramento
15.8%
-16.8%
Salt Lake City, UT
4.8%
-11.3%
Los Angeles
14.9%
30.2%
Denver, CO
3.5%
4.8%
Fresno-Visalia
9.2%
-5.7%
Seattle-Tacoma, WA
3.4%
-35.9%
Bakersfield
8.0%
44.6%
Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
3.1%
-19.9%
Palm Springs
5.4%
40.7%
New York, NY
2.6%
-17.4%
Santa Barbara
5.1%
2.4%
Chicago, IL
2.6%
-12.6%
Monterey-Salinas
2.0%
-13.4%
Portland, OR
2.2%
-28.0%
Chico-Redding
1.3%
-13.7%
Houston, TX
2.1%
-8.4%
REGION
Source: VisitCalifornia, Domestic Visitor Profiles, Q1 2021
24
REGION
QUALITY OF LIFE
Irvine:
VIOLENT AND PROPERTY CRIME RATES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA Nearly all areas measured in this year’s crime index saw increases in their total crime index, with Orange seei County ngitstoalcrimeindexjumpfr80om to 82. Despite this increase, the region’s assault crime indexdeclinedby1pointo52,significantlybelow any other region measured in the table below.
Safest Major City in America
Assault Crime Index in Orange County Continues to Decline
O R A NG E C O U N TY A N D RE G IONAL C RIME INDEXES , 2021 TOTAL CRIME INDEX
ASSAULT CRIME INDEX
PROPERTY CRIME INDEX
San Diego County
78
83
77
Orange County
82
52
85
Santa Clara County
98
67
101
United States
100
100
100
Sacramento County
101
120
99
California
107
107
106
Riverside County
107
87
110
San Bernardino County
107
121
105
Los Angeles County
108
122
104
Boston (Suffolk County)
111
184
99
Minneapolis (Hennepin County)
118
82
120
Dallas County
128
98
128
Austin (Travis County)
129
83
144
Seattle (King County)
156
78
166
San Francisco County
237
128
244
REGION
Note: An index value of 100 represents the national average Source: Esri Crime Index Data
25
C R I ME IN DE X, COU N TY CO MPARIS O N, 2021
Crime Index, County Comparison, 2021
250
237 National Average = 100
200 156 150 100
28
78
98
101
108
100
107
107
107
111
118
128
129
50
Cl ar a
e
Sa nt a
Sa n
Di eg
o
Co OO rar un ann ty gge
Co un tyy Sa Co cr am un en ty to Co un Un ty i t Lo ed sA St ng at es el es Co un ty Ca lif Ri or ve ni Sa rs a i de n Be C rn ou ar nt Bo di y M st no in o n Co ne (S ap un uf ol ty fo is lk (H Co en un ne ty pi ) n Co un D ty all Au ) as st C in ou (T nt ra y vis Se at Co t le un (K ty in Sa ) g n C Fr o an un ci ty sc ) o Co un ty
0
Source: Esri Crime Index Data.
Orange County has long been seen as a perfect destination to raise a family, with some of the nation’s lowest crime rates, highest incomes, and best educational institutions. It remains highly attractive to both young and more established families. Irvine, Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Anaheim, and Santa Ana all make WalletHub’s recent list of The Best Places to Raise a Family, due in large part to exceptional scores in Health & Safety, which outweighed generally low affordability.
WALLETHUB’S BEST PLACES TO RAISE A FAMILY – ORANGE COUNTY CITIES AND SCORES, 2021 RANK
CITY
TOTAL SCORE
FAMILY FUN
HEALTH & SAFETY
EDUCATION & CHILD CARE
AFFORDABILITY
SOCIOECONOMICS
3
Irvine, CA
69.19
17
1
3
57
9
12
Huntington Beach, CA
64.31
64
10
4
96
12
53
Garden Grove, CA
55.9
38
15
15
173
38
92
Anaheim, CA
51.69
34
14
73
174
54
133
Santa Ana, CA
47.76
91
18
69
180
49
Source: WalletHub
26
Data Notes: The racial and ethnic categories presented are the three largest in Orange County and are not mutually exclusive. Latino includes children of any race who are of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity. Asian includes the race Asian alone and includes both Hispanic and nonHispanic. White, no-Hispanic includes only White alone and no-Hispanic. Projection data by race/ethnicity and age have been updated by the source.
Sources: Place – Land Area: County of Orange Public Works; Density: U.S. Census Bureau; GHTPH1-R: Population, Housing Units, Area, and Density, Census 2010 (land area) and State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State — January 1, 2011-2020. Sacramento, California, May 2020. People – California Department of Finance. Demographic Research Unit. Report P-2B: PopulatPrion ojectionsbyIndividualYearofge,CaliforniaCounties,2010-2060(Baseline 2019 Population Projections; Vintage 20 Release). Sacramento: California. pril 201; California Department of Finance. Demographic Research Unit. Report P-2D: Population Projections by Total Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Race, California Counties, 2010-2060 (Baseline 2019 Population Projections; Vintage 20 Release). Sacramento: California. March 2021; Foreign Born, Language: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table DP02. Education – Educational Attainment: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table S1501. Economy – Median Household Income: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table B19013; Unemployment Rate: California Employment Development Department Labor Market Information, April 2021; Median Existing SingleFamily Home Price: California Association of Realtors, Current Sales and Price Statistics.
27
28
COVID-19 SPECIAL FEATURE UPDATE
COVID-19 AND THE FUTURE OF WORK Orange County’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic will be a process, rather than an event, as local, national, and global economies face the long-term consequences of their “lost year.” McKinsey & Company describes the current economic downturn as “double-barreled,” in that it involves changes in both supply and demand. Orange County’s world-famous Hospitality and Tourism industry is a perfect example of this double-barreled downturn: pandemic restrictions both shut down or greatly restricted the capacity of tourist attractions (as well as the ability to travel, domestically or internationally) and significantlyedu r ced consumer demand for those attractions and related travel.
This special section of the report explores three pandemic-driven changes that could have long-term impacts: • Shifts in consumer behavior; • The mainstreaming of remote work; and • The accelerated automation and digitization of the workplace. While much of Orange County’s economy is returning to normal, these shifts may continue to impact the county far into the future.
Consumer Behavior From online grocery shopping to food delivery apps to virtual doctor’s visits, the COVID-19 pandemic has transformed consumer behavior, boosting the sales of some goods and services 3 while almost completely closing the (such as cycling, home fitness, and home improvement), market for others (hotels, movie theaters, the performing arts, etc.). The pandemic has had a particularly profound and potentially long-lasting impact on three of Orange County’s most important industry sectors: Hospitality and Tourism, Retail, and Health Care. HOSPITALITY AND TOURISM Orange County’s Hospitality and Tourism sector faces the consequences of a lost year of revenue as well as lingering consumer caution. While Disneyland reopened on April 30, 2021, after being closed for more than a year, it did so at limited capacity. The county’s travel industry as a whole is operating at a limited capacity, albeit with much fewer limits than during the worst months of the pandemic. According to the U.S. Travel Association, in April 2021, international travel to the
3
30
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/covid-19-where-consumers-are-flocking-under-lockdown/
United States remained 87 percent below pre-pandemic levels, a discouraging statistic for one of the country’s premier international travel destinations. Only 29 percent of U.S. adultssurveyedbyMornigConsuMar in lt ch201epo r rtedfeelingcomfortableflyingon 4 an airplane. Furthermore, the pandemic-driven popularity of virtual meetings on Zoom and other platforms means that hotels and convention centers may expect less business travel-related income over the next few years. Similarly, the U.S. Travel Association estimates that the U.S. travel industry lost almost $500 billion in revenue in 2020, a decline of approximately 42 percent.5 International travel, according to the U.S. Travel Association, saw a 76 percent decrease, with business travel declining by 70 percent. This reduction in travel has in turn drastically diminished themarketfoelr atedsectors;alackofairportafficfoced r HertzanddvantageRenta Car to declare bankruptcy in 2020.
N ATI O N A L CH A N G E IN YE A R-OVER- YEAR T RAVEL S PENDING, 2020 Going on a Vacation
63%
Taki ng a Road T rip
56%
Going to t he Movies
52%
St ayi ng at a H ot el
47%
Going to a Mus eum
45%
Going to an Amuse ment Park
45%
Going to a Shoppi ng M all
45%
Going to a Spor ting Ev ent
41%
Fly ing on an Air plane
38%
Tr av eling Abroad
34% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Source: U.S. Travel Association, Weekly Coronavirus Impact on Travel Expenditures in the U.S., January 22, 2021 Updated
Despite these losses, Disneyland and Knott’s Berry Farm were able to return to full capacity on June 15, 2021. As COVID-19 vaccination levels began to increase and case counts declined, the United States, along with several other countries, began to ease travel restrictions meant to reduce the potential for transmission. While case trends have beendeclingforthemajorityf201,theecen r triseofaemor transmissiblevariantof COVID-19 known as the Delta variant has many concerned about reinstating lockdowns and additional travel restrictions. Despite this, many researchers and media commentators predict that pent-up demand could lead to a surge in Hospitality and Tourism consumer spending.
4 5
https://morningconsult.com/2021/03/24/pent-up-demand-travel-restaurants-cruise-pandemic/ https://www.ustravel.org/sites/default/files/media_root/document/TE_Coronavirus_WeeklyImpacts_01.22.21.pdf
31
A Morning Consult survey, for instance, asked more than 2,000 U.S. adults about their enthusiasm for returning to various activities after the end of the pandemic.6 As might be expected, more survey respondents reported being “very excited” about returning to their normal routine than about any other activity; 43 percent reported high levels of excitement about taking a vacation, 33 percent about taking a road trip, and 29 percent about socializing in public places. The following chart shows Hospitality and Tourism-related activities by the percentage of “very excited” or “somewhat excited” survey respondents.
P E R CE N T OF SU RV E Y RES PO NDENT S “VERY EXC IT ED” O R “ S O M E W HAT E XCITE D” BY HO S PITALIT Y AND T O URIS M- RELATE D A C TIV ITY ON CE PA N DEMIC IS UNDER CO NT RO L Going on a Vacation
63%
Taki ng a Road T rip
56%
Going to t he Movies
52%
St ayi ng at a H ot el
47%
Going to a Mus eum
45%
Going to an Amuse ment Park
45%
Going to a Shoppi ng M all
45%
Going to a Spor ting Ev ent
41%
Fly ing on an Air plane
38%
Tr av eling Abroad
34% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Source: Morning Consult, 6 Charts Illustrate Where Pent-Up Demand Is Strongest (and Weakest) in a Post-Pandemic Economy
Excitement about going on a vacation positively correlates with income and educational attainment: 76 percent of post-graduates reported excitement compared to only 60 percent of those without a college degree. Morning Consult also found that younger generations generally reported higher levels of excitement. “It appears that Millennials and, to some extent, Gen Z adults will bolster the post-pandemic economy,” writes Morning Consult head of industry intelligence Joanna Piacenza. Surveyed Millennials are more excited about going on a vacation, goingtohemovies,visitingamuseum,stayinginahotel,attendingasportingevent,flyingin an airplane, and traveling abroad than members of any other generation; they also show the highest levels of excitement about traveling for work. Gen Z respondents reported the highest levels of excitement about going to an amusement park, seeing a concert, and going to a party or social event.
32
6
https://morningconsult.com/2021/03/24/pent-up-demand-travel-restaurants-cruise-pandemic/
RETAIL Brick-and-mortar etr ail taxable sales, which account for a significant part of Orange County’s tax revenue, faced more competition from e-commerce during the pandemic than ever before, with regulations shutting down many stores, consumers choosing to stay at home, and the convenience of e-commerce. The pandemic, McKinsey notes, “has driven unprecedented numbers of consumers into digital channels.” Orangeetr County aifaced l majch or allengesbefoer thepandemic,asexpled or OCin BC’s report Inside Orange County’s Retail E-volution: How E-commerce is Transforming the Future of Orange County’s Retail Sector, Land Use, Workforce and Tax Base. Between 2000 and 2020, competition from e-commerce led to the bankruptcy of many national retailers — from RadioShack and Toys ‘R’ Us to Quiksilver and Sears Holdings — and the obsolescence of entire retail categories, such as video rental and music stores. The United States experienced a similar “retail apocalypse” during the COVID-19 pandemic. JC Penney, Neiman Marcus, Chinos Holdings (J. ewCr ), Guitar Center, and other major etr ailersaldecl l aredbankruptcyTh20.in efolowingcharprt ovidesatimelineofmajor dining and retail bankruptcies during the pandemic.
T I M E L I NE OF DIN IN G A N D RE TAIL BANKRUPT CIES DURING PA NDE MI C MAY 2020: J.C. Penney; Neiman Marcus; Centric Brands (BGB, Joe’s Jeans)
JUNE 2020:
CEC Entertainment (Chuck E. Cheese); GNC Holdings
JULY 2020:
Ascena Retail Group (Lane Bryant, Catherines, Ann Taylor, Loft, Justice clothing)7; Brooks Brothers; California Pizza Kitchen; Sur la Table
AUGUST 2020:
Tailored Brands (Men’s Wearhouse, Jos. A Bank); Stein Mart
SEPTEMBER 2020:
JANUARY 2021:
Century 21
L’Occitane US8
OCTOBER 2020:
Rubio’s Restaurants
NOVEMBER 2020: Guitar Center
FEBRUARY 2021:
Solstice Marketing Concepts (the United States’ second largest sunglasses retailer); Belk9
MARCH 2021: Paper Source
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-us-bankruptcies-coronavirus/ https://www.retaildive.com/news/the-running-list-of-2021-retail-bankruptcies/594891/ 9 https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/whats-next-for-digital-consumers 7 8
33
As in Hospitality and Tourism, there is some evidence to suggest pent-up demand for brickand-mortar retail. Of Morning Consult survey respondents, 45 percent reported excitement about returning to a shopping mall; 23 percent reported having already done so, with only eight percent reporting no excitement about going to a shopping mall. There is also evidence suggesting that e-commerce has reached near-saturation levels and has limited room to expand. McKinsey’s May 2021 article “What’s Next for Digital Consumers” analyzes the results of a survey of almost 30,000 global consumers, observing that…
“…the acceleration into digital channels now seems to have leveled off in both Europe and the United States, with consumers in some industries saying that they will be using digital channels less frequently once the pandemic ends. As a result even as total digital adoption remains above prepandemic levels, many industries and regions may see a modest negative net change in postpandemic digital use relative to 2020.”10
Despite the significant pressues r facing etr ailers across the nation, Orange County etr ail employment has begun to recover. County retail employment declined from 150,400 in January 20 to 118,500 in pril and May 20, a loss of 31,90 jobs or 21 percent. s case levels declined in mid-2020, retail employment began to recover as stores were able to reopen at limited capacities and with mask mandates in place. Retail employment reached 146,400 in December 2020, supported by pent-up demand and holiday spending. From December 2020 to April 2021, retail employment began to steadily decline before starting to improve again in May and June 2021. The sector should slowly recover as vaccination rates increase and the overall economy reopens and recovers.
34
10
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital/our-insights/whats-next-for-digital-consumers
T O TA L M O NTH LY RE TA IL E M P LO YMENT IN O RANGE C O UNT Y, J A NU A RY 2 0 2 0 – JU LY 2 0 2 1 160 ,00 0
Total Employment
150 ,00 0 140 ,00 0 130 ,00 0 120 ,00 0 110 ,00 0
Ja n2 Fe 0 b2 M 0 ar -2 0 Ap r-2 M 0 ay -2 0 Ju n20 Ju l -2 Au 0 g2 Se 0 p20 O ct -2 N 0 ov -2 D 0 ec -2 0 Ja n21 Fe b2 M 1 ar -2 1 Ap r-2 M 1 ay -2 1 Ju n21 Ju l -2 1
100 ,00 0
Source: California Employment Development Department
Post-pandemic, retailers can use the same strategies that helped them compete against previous waves of e-commerce — “experiential retail.” Inside Orange County’s Retail E-volution identified several ways in which etr ailers can leverage the uniqe properties of a staffed, physical brick-and-mortar space. “Tried-and-true retail values still work,” that report concluded, “because today’s shoppers still have needs for the brick-and-mortar fundamentals that haven’t changed: good customer service, an enjoyable shopping environment, the experience of discovering new things, making connections to other people and to a community.”11 The post-pandemic consumer is perhaps hungrier now for these place-based, retailspecificexperiencesthaneverbefoe.r
11
Inside Orange County’s Retail E-volution, p.148.
35
HEALTH CARE The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated clearly how important Orange County’s Health Care sector is to the overall health, wellbeing, and economy of Orange County. The sector has undergone a transformative year and a half, from treating intensive care patients at hospitals and ICUs to rolling out the county’s mass vaccination program. Perhaps the most notable change for consumers has been the rising importance and use of Health Care Information Technology, or Health Care IT, especially in the form of telehealth epl r acing in-person doctor’s office visits. An American Medical Association (AMA) survey found that 28 percent of surveyed physicians usedtelehealfoth virtualofficevisits2019in ,twiceasmanas y 2016; in VicePresidenoft Digital Innovation, Meg Barron estimates that up to 90 percent of U.S. physicians offered telehealth services in 2020.12 Patients’ usage of and interest in telehealth has also increased. An April 2020 McKinsey survey found that 75 percent of patients reported interest in telehealth, compared with only 11 percent of patients who used telehealth in 2019. In addition, 74 percent of telehealth consumers reported high levels of satisfaction.13 Overall, McKinsey predicts that up to $250 billion in health care services could be switched to telehealth or other digital channels. The chart below illustrates the skock yr etinguseofCalOptimatelehealser th vices:frjustom 69virtualvisits2019Julyin emort than 191,000 in July 2020.
C A L OP TIM A TE LE H E A LTH S ERVICES , JULY 2019–JULY 2020
200 ,00 0
Q3 July 201 9
Q4 O ct 2019
CalOptima T eleh ealth Visit s
108,712
4,232
13,505 49
71
119
32
37
0
69
50, 000
9,338
100 ,00 0
71,177
98,988
150 ,00 0
82,720
169,765
191,002
250 ,00 0
Q1 Jan 2 020 M edical Vis its
Q2 Apr 2 020
Q3 Jul 2020
Beh av ior al He alt h Visit s
DataNote:Thisfiguer includesthemostecen r tdataepo r rted,asofJanuary201. Source: CalOptima
12
36
13
https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2020-02/ama-digital-health-study.pdf h ttps://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/telehealth-a-quarter-trillion-dollar-post-covid19-reality
Orangesaw County significanHeal t Car th eITgrbefo owth er thepandemic.sseenthein chart below, total subsector employment more than doubled between 2001 and 2020, with the number of Computer Occupations in the Health Industry — Software Programmers, Networkdminstrators,andotherno-HealthCare-specificoles r —emor thantripling.
Computer Occ upations in Healt h I ndus try
He alt h IT Occupati ons *
202 0 202 0
201 9 201 9
201 8 201 8
201 7 201 7
201 6 201 6
201 5 201 5
201 4 201 4
201 3 201 3
201 2 201 2
201 1 201 1
201 0 201 0
200 9 200 9
200 8 200 8
200 7 200 7
200 6 200 6
200 5 200 5
200 4 200 4
200 3 200 3
0
200 2 200 2
1, 800 2, 000 1, 600 1, 800 1, 400 1, 600 1, 200 1, 400 1, 000 1, 200 800 1, 000 600 800 400 600 200 400 0 200
200 1 200 1
Emplo Eymmpelonyt ment
O R2A NG E C O U N TY H E A LTH IT J O BS GRO WT H, 2001–2020 , 000
Total
Compu ter Occ uHealth pationInformation s in Healt h ITechnologists, ndus try He alt h IRegistrars, T OccupatSurgical i ons * Assistants, Total and Health * Health IT Occupations includes: Medical Care Practitioners and Technical Workers. Source: Emsi
Local educators have supported this growth by building strong talent pipelines, especially at the community college and university levels. As seen below, the University of California, Irvine had more graduations from Health Care IT-related programs than any other Orange County college or university. Overall, 4,860 Orange County students graduated from Health ar C eT-I elr atedprgro ams1902ni duE. catsro eed nl iw co ot eunit efin rot eese ht pipeles ni in order to better support the growing consumer demand for Health Care IT services.
T O P 1 0 O R AN GE COU N TY COL LEGES AND UNIVERS IT IES BY N U MB E R O F H E A LTH CA RE IT PRO GRAM CO MPLET IO NS INSTITUTION
NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS, 2019
INSTITUTION
NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS, 2019
University of California, Irvine
1,509
Cypress College
147
California State University, Fullerton
1,275
Golden West College
128
Trident University International
460
Irvine Valley College
128
Saddleback College
350
Chapman University
109
Orange Coast College
228
Coastline Community College
96
Source: Emsi
37
REMOTE WORK Beyond any specific indust,ry the rise of emr ote work during the pandemic marks a sea of change for the world of work, one with implications for employment, tax revenue, residential and commercial real estate, transportation infrastructure, and workforce development. In the words of a recent McKinsey article, “the virus has broken through cultural and technological barriers that prevented remote work in the past, setting in motion a structural shift in where work takes place, at least for some people.”14 While another section of this report analyzes mainstream remote work’s potential impacts on the housing market, this section focuses on potential remote work impacts on the workplace and labor market. While many remote workers have already returned to in-person work, multiple sources predict thatasignificannumber t ofemr oteworkersetr not wil theourn office,etr wil o a onur limted basis, even after the pandemic ends. A December 2020 Pew Research Center poll, for instance, found that 54 percent of American workers were willing to continue working from home after the pandemic.15 Of surveyed workers, 38 percent report that they can perform most of their work activities from home, a number that increased with income and educational attainment; 68 percent of workers with a postgraduate degree report that their work can be done at home, compared to only 17 percent of workers with a high school diploma or less. Why are some workers willing to continue working from home? As seen on the next page, avoiding commutes tied with avoiding COVID-19 infection as a reason for working remotely, according to a survey by remote collaboration provider Owl Labs.16 Even during a global pandemic,emr oteworkerscitedanumberofothersignificanmotivatingfactors.OwLabs’ l 2019 survey of pre-pandemic remote workers provides a clear picture of remote work’s advantages for many employees; it appears that a significant percentage of the workfoce r discovered these advantages while forced to work from home in 2020.
h ttps://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/whats-next-for-remote-work-an-analysis-of-2000tasks-800-jobs-and-nine-countries?cid=other-eml-alt-mgi-mck&hdpid=ef77708e-97cb-4375-abe3-bc174c2f6edf&hctky=1945270&hlkid=9efc52d57ade41e6b9a3b792248f5c59 15 h ttps://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/12/09/how-the-coronavirus-outbreak-has-and-hasnt-changed-the-wayamericans-work/ 16 h ttps://resources.owllabs.com/state-of-remote-work/2020 14
38
MAIN R Remotely, MainREAS ReasonO s fNS or WoFrkO ing 2020T ELY, 2020 WO RK ING REMO
MA I N MaR in E ReAasSoON ns foS r WFOR orking Remotely, 019 LY, 2 0 1 9 W O R K I N G RE M2OTE Bet ter Work -Life Balance
91%
Fears of COVID-19 In fe ction
79%
79%
In creas ed P roducti vity / Focus
79%
Avoiding Com muting
Reducin g St res s
78%
Reducin g St res s
74%
Avoiding Com muting
78%
Bet ter Work -Life Balance
72%
Saving M one y
76%
In creas ed P roducti vity / Focus
70%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100 %
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100 %
Source: OWL Labs Surveys, 2019-2020
Global Workplace Analytics predicts that up to 30 percent of the workforce will continue to work from home at least part of the time by the end of 2021.17 In the words of Global Workplace Analytics president Kate Lister, “the genie is out of the bottle and it’s not likely to go back in.”18 Similarly, McKinsey predicts that between 20 and 25 percent of workers in advanced economies could permanently work from home several days per week.19 McKinsey esear r chersanaled zy drnuh edsfo ccu o patsnoi anderom an ht ,02 b oj 0 ask t sden i ot fyit eht sectors with the highest potential to effectively make a long-term transition to remote work. As seen below, “white collar” sectors tend to have the highest remote work potential, which aligns with the aforementioned Pew survey. 1. Finance and Insurance (76–86 percent) 2. Management (68–78 percent) 3. Pr fessi o al no ,Scienfic, it andTechcal in Serces iv (62–75percen) t 4. IT and Communications (58–69 percent) 5. Education (33–69 percent)20 Sectors with the lowest potential for remote work include Agriculture, Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, and Transportation and Warehousing.
https://globalworkplaceanalytics.com/work-at-home-after-covid-19-our-forecast Ibid. 19 https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/whats-next-for-remote-work-an-analysis-of-2000-tasks-800-jobsand-nine-countries?cid=other-eml-alt-mgi-mck&hdpid=ef77708e-97cb-4375-abe3-bc174c2f-6edf&hctky=1945270&hlkid=9efc5 2d57ade41e6b9a3b792248f5c59 20 The first percentage represents a sector’s potential to effectively transition to remote work with no productivity losses, with the second representing a “theoretical maximum.” 17 18
39
n ofmajortechcompanieshaveannoucedplanstocontiuesupportingemr otework umber after the end of the pandemic: • Coinbase letwi employeeschosebetweenworkingfrhomeandworkingatanoffice, as will Square and Twitter. • Dr
o plx ansleton tingaleml ployeescontiueworkingemr otel,offices pbo y with transformed into coworking spaces called Dropbox Studios.
• Facebook plans on letting half of its employees work remotely after July 2021. • Infosys will allow up to 50 percent of its employees to work remotely. •Shopifyplanstoletallemployeesworkfromheindefinitel. y • Skillshare plans to permanently shift to entirely remote work, as does Upwork. These shifts toward emr ote working are likely to have significant impacts on demand for comercial eal r estate and office space as employers wil likely edu r ce their overall physical footprints as more workers adopt remote working strategies. A PWC survey of 128 business executives, for instance, found that emr ote work il ely have a major impact on comercial real estate.21 Of surveyed executives, 87 percent predicted changes in real estate strategy over the next year, with 61 percent plannig on consolidating office space in business districts and 58 percent planning on opening different kinds of locations in different areas, such as “satellite offices in suburbs.” Furthere, mor coworking spaces such as WeWork could contiue to take market share away from traditional office buildings as companies contiue to focus on emr ote work and flexibi. lity Overall, the shift to emr ote work has been a success as indicated by 83 percent of employers and 71 percent of employees surveyed by PWC.22
HAS OTE ORK HaRE s ReM mo te WoW rk B een a BE SucEN cess fA or S U C C E SS FOR ? EmpEloM yeP rsLOYERS ?
HAS EorWO HasREMO RemoteTW k BeeRK n a SBEEN uccess foAr S UCC ES S F O RplEMPLO Em oyees? YEES?
6%
6%
11% 23%
71% 83% Suc ces sful
M ixed Res ult s
Uns ucce ss fu l
Suc ces sful
Source: https://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/us-remote-work-survey.html
21
40
22
h ttps://www.pwc.com/us/en/library/covid-19/us-remote-work-survey.html I bid.
M ixed Res ult s
Uns ucce ss fu l
Of executives surveyed by PWC, 43 percent predicted that they would increase remote work gogni foar wr d,htiw13 percent claignim at ht “we’re betert ff o gigniv pu noffice space 23 entirely.” Only 17 percent reported a desire to return to the pre-pandemic status quo. Thsi shfti ,,nriut lead iw otaeir agi m gni fo eht ffice o sel ti f, poent al it yedu lr cign ffice o footprints and clearing space for different kinds of businesses, or for mixed-use spaces.
Which Work Activities Can Effectively Be Performed From Home? In the study “What’s Next for Remote Work: An Analysis of 2,000 Tasks, 800 Jobs and Nine Countries,” McKinsey researchers identify which work activities can and cannot be performed effectively at home. Two work activities have zero remote work potential: Handling and Moving Objects; and Controlling Machines and Mechanical Equipment. Working with Equipment, Materials and Machinery, and Assisting and Caring for Others also have fairly low remote work potential. On the other hand, work activities with high potential to transition to remote work include: 1. Updating Knowledge and Learning; 2. Interacting with Computers; 3. Thinking Creatively; 4. Communicating With and Guiding Clients or Colleagues; and 5. Processing, Analyzing, and Interpreting Information.
23
Ibid.
41
The shift to remote work has already begun to affect venture capital, with investment shifting away from traditional technology hubs. While Silicon Valley remains the United States’ largest destination for venture capital, its share of total investment fell from 26 percent in 2014 to 22.4 percentin20;itsshareispredictedtofallbelow20percentin201,thefirsttimeinhstoryit will have done so.24
T O P U . S. V E N TU RE CA PITAL MARKET S , Q3 2020 2,379
2,5 00
Number of Venture Capital Deals
2,0 00
1,768
1,5 00 1,070 1,0 00
794
610
500
257
233
226
195
188
171
-
a ll n e n a e es ill m sa to or nc r de r at o g rv e t a u c n m e S d e a -A vi rli Ta g d ap O -P A er ro -C eN r l oite v s on l P t o c L n n g t e r e s Y e f n i a U i c te or es D go e un Se ad ew an el es im ca th ra e i t c g N l f r Fr B R h n a o o n C A st -B s ew ia -W Sa e h o n N C L R lp se D to ia n Jo de os n o a B l t n o i nt Sa ng Ph A hi s n a Sa W nd la k a
k ar ew N k-
h ac Be
Source: Q3 2020 Pitchbook-NVCA Venture Monitor Report
42
24
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/14/silicon-valleys-share-of-venture-capital-may-drop-below-20percent-in-2021.html
Employee Perspectives on Work after COVID-19 A McKinsey survey of more than 5,000 employees of private and public sectors found that: • Only 37 percent of surveyed employees preferred working on-site to hybrid or remote models, compared to 62 percent of employees before the pandemic. More than half of surveyed employeesprefered r aflexiblehybridmodel incorporating both on-site and remote work.
• Surveyed employees were asked to list their top fivemostimportantcompanypoliciesegar r ding remote work. The most commonly listed policies were: – Clearexpectationsforonlieandoffline hours,withflexibilityousideofonliehours (34 percent);
• More than half of surveyed employees would prefer to work from home at least three days per week; this includes more than two-thirds of surveyed parents with young children.
– Reliable and well-supported virtual collaboration tools (29 percent); – A strategy to determine “what is and isn’t working,” for example, via employee surveys (27 percent);
• significantnumberofsurveyedemployees reported concerns with remote work: 46 percent were concerned about work-life balance, 44 percent about losing community and their connections to colleagues, 43 percent about reduced collaboration, and 43 percent about a decreased focus on employee well-being.
– Regular small team-connectivity events to facilitate social cohesion (26 percent); – Guidelines for dialing into remote meetings (26 percent); and – Clear expectations for documenting remote and in-person work activities (26 percent).
PWCsurveyofemor than10U.0 S.executivesand1,2office 0 workersfoundthat8only percenoft U.S. officeworkersdowan not emrwokt otel,y ifallowedby to theiemr ployerWo. rkingfrhomefivedays a week was more popular than any other option, as seen below. “How often would you want to work remotely after COVID-19 is no longer a concern (if your employer allowed you to work remotely as you want to)?”
PWC SU R VE Y RE SU LTS Fiv e Days P er Week
29%
Four Day s Per We ek
10%
Th ree Day s Per We ek
16%
Tw o Day s Per W eek
19%
One Day Pe r Week
10%
A fe w Days P er Month
10%
No Remote Work
8% 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers, PwC’s US Remote Work Survey – January 12, 2021
25%
30%
35%
43
Digitization and Automation of the Workplace In addition to remote work, companies across a variety of industries saw a general increase in digitization. “The pace of digitization and automation quickened in some companies,” in the words of McKinsey’s recent report titled “Will Productivity and Growth Return After the COVID-19 Crisis?“ Firms became emor efficient and agile, and many businesses — and people — went onlie for the first time. The bold espo r nse of many companies and governments proved that organizations could transform quickly when they had to. This bold response, it should be noted, was not limited to governments and large companies. Orange County’s entrepreneurs and small business owners also adapted to the “new normal,” from restauranteurs switching to an online ordering/curbside pickup model to doctors switching to telehealth and businesses of all sizes replacing conferences with Zoom meetings. Digitization and automation were headline news well before the COVID-19 pandemic, with artificialintelligence,machinelearnig,theInternetofThings(IoT),andelr atedconceptsspawnig waves of speculation on their potential labor market impacts. In 2018, OCBC collaborated with OC Pathways and the Orange County Department of Education (OCDE) on The Dimensions of Defensibility: Human-Centered Design in an Automated Workplace, which rates the defensibility — or resistance to automation — of skills, activities, and other aspects of work. Three work activities, for instance, are strongly defensible: •DevelopingObjectivesandStrategies; • Thinking Creatively; and • Providing Consultation and Advice to Others. The least defensible work activities, on the other hand, include: •EstimatingtheQuantifiableCharacteristicsofProducts,Events,orInformation; • Performing Administrative Activities; and • Drafting, Laying Out, and Specifying Technical Devices, Parts, and Equipment. Work-related skills are some of the best predictors of defensibility. The most defensible skills include: 1. Active Learning; 2. Critical Thinking; 3. Systems Evaluation; 4. Systems Analysis;
5. Learning Strategies; 6. Judgment and Decision-Making; and 7. Complex Problem-Solving.25
In many cases, the workers most vulnerable to automation are those who were hit hardest by the pandemic. For one, the pandemic disproportionately affected job security in sectors with high numbers of no-technical, entry-level jobs, such as Ding, Retail, and Hospitality and TourismWh. iledefensibidolity esper not fectco ly dior nateedu with cationalattainment,jobswith higher educational requirements tend to be more defensible. Across the economy, as previously mentioned, the ability to work from home positively correlates with both education and income.
44
25
Dimensions of Defensibility p.22.
A Pew Survey found that only 17 percent of workers with a high school diploma or less could work remotely, a number that increases to only 29 percent for workers with some college education. Less than a quarter of low-income workers reported being able to work from home, compared to 37 percent of middle-income workers and 56 percent of upper income workers. Going forward, county educators and workforce development professionals will need to focus on Orange County’s residents who face the double displacements of automation and the impacts of the COVID-19 economic downturn. Defensible skills, activities, and other aspects of work — as outlined in The Dimensions of Defensibility — should guide the development of programs to serve these residents. Skills development programs, focused on both transferable “soft” skills and currently in-demand “hard” skills, should target a population of mid-career professionals and unemployed adults in addition to traditional students. Entrepreneurs and small business owners are another target audience, as they are likely operating in a much more digital environment now than before the pandemic. On an individual level, employer-subsidized professional development/ upskilling courses in digital-related skills could help employees in almost every industry better adapt to an increasingly digital environment. Information Technology in particular has expanded out of tech companies and Fortune 500 corporations to become an essential part of businesses of all sizes and in all industries. Educators and workforce development professionals should also keep track of emerging technologies with an eye toward how they can be incorporated into the classroom; educators and librarians have already done good work in incorporating technologies such as 3-D printing.
45
Conclusion While 2021 will likely be remembered as a return to normal, many aspects of the workplace, consumer experience, and overall economy have seen long-term — if not permanent — changes. The COVID-19 pandemic transformed the day-to-day physical environment in Orange County and across the world, with plexiglass dividing tables and people, social distancing marks on steor floors, and hand sanitzng stations in seemingly every public place. While some of these pandemic measures will fade away, other pandemic impacts will likely transform the Orange County landscape for decades. In the retail landscape, further e-commerce gains against “big box” stores mean that large footprint clothing stores will lose further ground as the anchor tenants of large shopping malls. 2020 and 2021 have already seen community health clinics replacing shops and restaurants in Orange County shopping centers, offering another example of the “consumerization” of Health Care: Health Care as something more akin to a brick-and-mortar retail experience than a hospital visit. How can Orange County adapt in the long-term to this newer normal? It’s important to remember that Orange County showed tremendous resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: breweries and distilleries switched from producing drinks to producing hand sanitizer; Soka University and the Disneyland Resort became temporary vaccine distribution centers; teachers and professors moved classes online. The co,unty otherin ds, wor hasshemtr own endouscapacifoty flex r ibianlity d reinvention and is thus fully capable of adapting to the future of work — a much less immediate disruption than the COVID-19 crisis. Many of the lessons learned over the past year and a half will help Orange County take this next step in its evolution.
46
COVID’s Impact on Demographics in Orange County POPULATION ehtroF firstemit ervoni aceny,rut al C foi a inr expereni cedaetn ss ol poni puat l ,02 ni o a drop of 0.46 percent as reported by the Census.26 Orange County recorded a net loss of more than 8,000 residents in Q4 of 2020.27 This population loss is due to many factors including: COVID deaths, domestic migration in search of cheaper living, and a halt on immigration during the pandemic. Many experts expect the population to rebound after the pandemic, but the pandemic’s lasting effects, such as the prevalence of remote work, may change that.
AGE AND ETHNICITY Orange County’s population is aging. According to the most recent data from the California Department of Finance, residents aged 65 and over are the only age group expected to increase in proportion between 2020 and 2060 in Orange County. With only the oldest age group increasing, the old-age dependency ratio will increase, meaning fewer workers and students and more elderly dependents. This puts increasing pressure on the medical and social support systems, forcing current workers to pay more into the system. COVID disproportionally affected elderly communities, which make up a large part of Orange County’s population. In January of this year, Dr. Clayton Chau, the county’s Chief eal H ht Officer, epo r ed tr at ht “54 percent fo eht spi oh al t ed zi OVI C 19-D pateni st are 61 and older. Of the patients admitted into Intensive Care Units, 71 percent are 61 years old or older. Nearly 72 percent of those in ICU are on a ventilator and are also over the age of 61.”28 On top of that, 75 percent of COVID deaths in Orange County are people aged 65 and over. Whereas younger age groups in Orange County reported more COVID cases, people aged 65andervo accoed tnu foeht r ast v aj m fo ytiro OVI C deat D s.h
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-loss.html?referringSource=articleShare https://www.capolicylab.org/calexodus-are-people-leaving-california/ 28 https://patch.com/california/orange-county/orange-countys-senior-citizens-remain-hardest-hit-coronavirus 26 27
47
C O NFIRM E D COV ID-1 9 C AS ES AND DEAT HS IN O RANGE CO UNTY B Y A G E G ROU P, DATA A S O F 8/23/21 CConfiromednCases firmed Cases 85 Ye ar s and Ove r
Confir CmedoDeat nhsfirmed Deaths
5,683
75- 84 Years
85 Ye ar s and Ove r
8,610
65- 74 Years
75- 84 Years
45- 54 Years
44,000
45- 54 Years
35- 44 Years
43,451
35- 44 Years
25- 34 Years
56,199 38,696
0- 17 Years 20, 000
40, 000
745 335 121
25- 34 Years
59
18- 24 Years
8
0- 17 Years
1
30,555 0
1,,0 004
55- 64 Years
34,670
18- 24 Years
1,267
65- 74 Years
17,183
55- 64 Years
1,638
60, 000
0
1,,0 000
500
1,,5 500
2,,0 000
Source: Orange County Health Care Agency, Orange County COVID-19 Dashboard, Updated 8/23/21
When looking at COVID-19 cases by ethnicity in Orange County, Hispanic or Latino populations hadasignificanhightly erpercenoft toalcases(45.6percent)whencomparedtheio prr oportion of the population (35 percent). Latino or Hispanic, White, and Asian communities accounted for 1,985, 1,932, and 1,106 deaths, respectively, as of August 23, 2021. When compared to their proportion of the population, only Hispanic or Latino communities had a higher death rate at 38.4 percent.
0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Oth er
0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Asian
1.4% 1.2% 1.6%
Wh ite
2.5% 0.4% 2.9%
Hispan ic or Lati no
Pe rcen t of Cas es
48
11.4% 0.5% 0.2%
12.0% 21.4% 21.1%
26.4% 37.4% 38.6%
50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
45.6% 38.4% 35.0%
P R O PORTION OF COV ID - 19 C AS ES AND DEAT HS BY PERC ENT O F P O P ULATION BY E THN IC IT Y, DATA AS O F 8/23/21
Mult iple Races
Black of Afr ican Amer ican
Native Hawaii an/ Pacifi c I slande r
Amer ican I ndian /Alaska Native
Pe rcen t of Death s
Pe rcen t of Population
Source: Orange County Health Care Agency, Orange County COVID-19 Dashboard, Updated 8/23/21
INCOME Lower-income, minority communities experienced increased prevalence of OVI C 19-D copar m edafflu ot en,t predoat nim eletihw ary easOrni angey. tnuoC Results from a study done by UC Irvine and the Orange County Health Care Agency show that the “greatest prevalence of exposure is maintained by the Latino community and persons of lower income. Latinx and low-income residents had the highest prevalence of antibodies with prevalence rates of 17% and 15%, respectively.”29 The data gathered from the study found that, “the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Orange County is 1.8-fold greater among Hispanics than among the referent group of mostly non-Hispanic whites.” They attributed this disparity to the work settings of Hispanics and lower-income communities that may not allow for physical distancing, or working in hazardous conditions out of economic necessity, or relatively dense housing situations.30 The ability to work remotely is correlated with higher incomes, thus people of lower income levels were less likely to be able to do eiht bs oj r safelfry e, moh cr ni easign eht elkil do hi fo exposue.r
FERTILITY sitI ear o t defin otyl elvit co y cl n de u at hw appen hl iw fer ot at rytil es,buti is certain that there will be a temporary drop in fertility. A postdoctoral scholar ehtni UCerB elk eyepar D enmt fot emD gro aphden iy fied it eerht easo r sn yhw fertility has declined during the pandemic. She points to physical closures of fertility clinics, economic hardships — especially for women — and the increased burden placed on parents.31 Preliminary data analysis from the Associated Press found that births have fallen dramatically during the pandemic in many states. In California, births in December 2020 declined 10 percent from a year earlier, with even more dramatic declines in January 2021, which were over nine months after the spring lockdowns.32 Analysis from 24 states found that, “December, January, and February together had about 41,000 fewer births than the same threemonth span a year earlier. That’s an 8% decline.”
https://calmatters.org/commentary/my-turn/2020/11/the-shocking-prevalence-of-covid-19-in-orange-county-minoritycommunities/ 30 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.07.20208660v1 31 https://alumni.berkeley.edu/california-magazine/just-in/2020-12-08/covid-19-may-have-long-term-effects-childbearing-us 32 https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-science-health-3dc7033a62728f1a99a176c5577af58c 29
49
GENDER The pandemc i as h ad h a signfican i t ecoc imon pact mi noenm w . Woenm ’s bs oj are 1.8 es mit erom ernluv ablean ht enm ’sbs oj OVI Cot ,D accodir gn a ot cK M sey ni stdy.u bal olG y,l “female bs oj are 19 percent erom at skir an ht al m e es no siplm y because enmow are disproportionately represented in sectors negatively affected by the COVID-19 crisis.”33
WO RLD E M P LOYM E N T IMPAC T IN 2020 BY INDUS T RY High
80
60
l Female-dominated jobsimpactedemor
Accommodation and food services
Education Other
Female share of employment 40 2019, % share
Human health and social work Financial and insurance activities
Wholesale and retail trade 39% = average share of women in the economy today
20
0 -30 Low
l Male-dominatedjobs impacted more l Male-dominatedjobs impacted less
Manufacturing gricue, ltur foest r ryandfishing
Transportation, storage and communication Utilities Mining and quarrying
Real estate, business and administrative services
-20 -10 0 Share of jobs impacted between 2019-20, % of 2019 jobs
Circle size = jobsaffected, thousands 900 500
Construction
Low
l Female-dominated jobsimpactedless
250
10 High
100
Source: McKinsey – COVID-19 and Gender Equality: Countering the Regressive Effects
Women also disproportionately provide unpaid care such as dependent childcare, caring for the elderly, cooking, and cleaning. COVID has increased the time women spend on family responsibilities by an estimated 1.5 to 2 hours a day, causing women to drop out of the labor force. In California, the unemployment rate for men over the age of 20 was 4.8 percent in April 2021. For women, it was 5.8 percent, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.34 The National Women’s Law Center reports that more than 2.3 million women have dropped out of the workforce since the pandemic began, versus only 1.8 million men. saesu r ,tl eht femaleabo l for ce r parci it patat rnoi eas h falenl stujot 57percen,t sti est wol 35 point since 1988.
h ttps://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/covid-19-and-gender-equality-countering-the-regressiveeffects#:~:text=Women%20are%20more%20vulnerable%20to,to%20the%20COVID%2D19%20pandemic. 34 h ttps://www.labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/specialreports/CA_Employment_Summary_Table.pdf 35 h ttps://nwlc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Final_NWLC_Press_CovidStats.pdf 33
50
CHILDCARE AND WORKING PARENTS Even prior to the pandemic, the childcare sector served an incredibly important role in both generating economic activity and employment on its own while also allowing working parents to pursue full-time career options. Unfortunately, there is a severe lack of childcare services in Orange County with only enough licensed capacity for 1 in 7 children. Due to both the supply of childcare centers and demand from working parents, childcare costs have risen more rapidly than median household incomes in recent years, which has forced many parents to pick between employment and childcare services.
easCH e in C hildcare RE CostsCOST for ChilS dreFnO UnRdeC r 5HILDREN and Median HUNDER ousehold 5 AND I N CR E A SEIncIrN ILDCA Incomes, 2012-2018 ME DI A N H O U SE H OLD IN COM ES , 2012–2018 60%
54%
Percent Change
50% 40% 29%
30%
30% 25%
20% 10% 0% California
Chil dc ar e Cos ts
Orange County
M edian H ou sehold Inc ome
Source: Kidsdata.org; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year ACS
As the COVID-19 pandemic forced the closures of both schools and daycare centers, parents ko t no signfican i ylt erom espo r sin bies it l as schslo adopted and ed l o r tuo distancelearning programs and children remained home throughout the day. School closures had signfican i co t seq n enu cesfognikrow r parens; t sueyvr edparenst exohw pereni cedfusch l lo clsuo es r dini catedsignfican i ch t alenl gesalni facet l sfo eiht es, vil r frenm o al t eal h b oj t h security and homeschooling. Survey results show that parents whose schools closed down entirely faced similar results as parents whose schools partially closed, indicating that partial school closures may provide eht bestcostbenefit—chdrli enarestabl l i esee ot eiht peer r sandpreserev soem fofomr important social interaction, while parents have time to focus on other responsibilities. While espo r den n st ohwexpereni ced on clsuo es r saw fewer chalenl ges niert sm fo b oj secuy,tir b oj ppo o es, it nu r andphsiy calandenm al t eal h ,ht eyht didexpereni ceerom ad lkrow and childcare challenges when compared to parents who only had partial closures. Overall, gnikrow parenst av h eexpereni cedsignfican i erom ch ylt alenl gesan ht par no ens, t chalenl ges primarily caused by full school closures.
51
Working parents in SHARE OF PARENT RESPONDENTS CITING A general have been ‘SIGNIFICANT’ CHALLENGE DURING THE COVID-19 disproportionately CRISIS, BY SCHOOL CLOSURE, % affected by the Healthy and Connectivity Growth and Fair pandemic, as they safe on-site and progress performance Physical Homeworkplace belonging opportunities evaluation health schooling have been responsible for childcare on top Mental Workload Household Job Child/family health increases responsbilities insecurity care of their jobs. With 60 widespread childcare Full closure closures, working 50 parents have had to 40 No closure navigate childcare, facilitate their 30 Partial closure children’s schooling, 20 and maintain their own jobs. This has 10 caused many parents, 0 especially women, to Please indicate which of the following has been challenging for you as an employee during the COVID-19 crisis (parents, n=1,397; nonparents, drop out of the labor n=1,259; full school closure, n=655; partial school closure, n=567, no school closure, n=175), Acute challenges are those where respondents describedthechallengeasbeing“significant”(otheroptionsincluded“somewhat,”“notachallenge,”and“notapplicable”). force. The loss of jobs This category is primarily relevant for parents, and hence has been marked as “N/A.” only makes childcare Source: McKinsey and education more expensive, creating difcultsituationsforPERMANENT LICENSED CHILD CARE CLOSURES BY many families. COUNTY, MARCH 2020 – JULY 2021 1
2
600
500
Closures
400
204
300
200 286 100
42
07 35
0 Los Angel es
17 14
75
Orange Vent ura River side Family Chil d Care Centers Chil d Care Cen ters
30 34 San Bern ar dino
Data Note: The State of California’s Department of Social Services – Community Care Licensing does not provide data or information regarding small family child care centers due to privacy concerns. As such, this list only provides closure information on large family child care centers. Source: State of California, Department of Social Services – Community Care Licensing
52
Economic Impacts of Disruptions in Child Care in Orange County According to research published by First 5 Orange County, child care disruptions cost Orange County approximately $4.3 billion in lost productivity and wages and $372 million lost in tax revenue every year, aswellastheyearlyossofemor than67,00jobs.Thesedisruptionscanesu r ltinworkersarrivnglateor leaving early, workers choosing to resign in order to take over child care responsibilities, or workers who are forced to work only part-time.
EC O N O MI C IM PA CT OF DISRU PT IO NS IN CHILDCARE IN O RANGE COU NTY LOST JOBS
LOST EARNINGS
LOST TAXES
Impact on Orange County Families and the Overall Economy*
36,376
$2.27 Billion
$202 Million
Impact on Orange County Employers**
31,013
$2.04 Billion
$170 Million
Total Economic Impacts
67,389
$4.3 Billion
$372 Million
* Due to voluntary and involuntary separations from work, going from full- to part-time, and not being able to go full-time due to child care challenges ** From turnover, absenteeism, and recruitment Source: First 5 Orange County
Overall, the cost of childcare remains the greatest challenge for Orange County families, often forcing parents to choose between working or taking on child care themselves. Parents and guardians surveyed by First 5 Orange County identified affodabi r ,lity convenience and quality of care as the most important challengesinfindingchildcare,asseenbel. ow
B I G G E S T C HA LLE N GE S FIN DING C HILD CARE (REPO RT ED BY PA R E NTS/G U A RDIA N S) Price/affordability Convenience (location) Hours that align w/my needs Quality that I am happy with Space (options I found were full) No challenges 0 Source: First 5 Orange County
20
40
60
80
53
MORTALITY The population of California also decreased directly from COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic. California’s death rate increased by 19 percent in 2020, accounting for about 50,000 excess r ytnuoC ed tr stuj ervo 5,0OVI C 0 elr-D ateddeats, h asepo r ed tr byeht New deaths.36Orangeepo 37 York Times. The nation’s sixth largest county, Orange County ranked 11th in both COVID-19 cases and deaths, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.38
COVID DAILY DEATHS IN CALIFORNIA, 2020 TO 2021 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100
1/ 23 /2 02 2/ 23 0 /2 3/ 0 20 23 /2 02 4/ 23 0 /2 5/ 0 20 23 /2 02 6/ 23 0 /2 7/ 0 20 23 /2 02 8/ 23 0 /2 02 9/ 23 0 / 10 20 2 /2 0 3/ 20 11 /2 20 3/ 12 2 02 0 /2 3/ 20 2 1/ 23 0 /2 02 2/ 23 1 /2 3/ 0 2 23 1 /2 02 4/ 23 1 /2 5/ 0 21 23 /2 02 6/ 23 1 /2 7/ 0 21 23 /2 02 1
0
Note: Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occued r and when the death certificate is completed, submited to NCHS and processed for eporting purposes. This delay can rangefrom1weekto8weeksore, m dependingonthejurisdictionandcauseofdeath.DataonalldeathsexcludingCOVID-19 exclude deaths with U07.1 as an underlying or multiple cause of death. Death counts were derived from the National Vital Statistics System database that provides the timeliest access to the vital statistics mortality data and may differ slightly from other sources due todifferencesincompleteness,COVID-19definitonsused,dataprocessing,andimputationfmissingdates.Weightedestimates maybetohighortlwincertainjurisdictionswherethetimelinessofprovisionaldatahaschangedinecen r tweekselr ativeto prioryears.Dataforjuisdictionswherecountsarebetween1and9aresuppressed. Source: Center for Disease Control, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm for more information.
h ttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/us/california-population-loss.html?referringSource=articleShare New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/california-covid-cases.html 38 h ttps://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/409af567637846e3b5d4182fcd779bea 36 37
54
C O VI D D A I LY DE ATH S IN ORA NGE C O UNT Y, 2020 T O 2021 80 70 60
COVID-19 Deaths
50 40 30 20
7/10/2021
6/19/2021
5/29/2021
5/8/2021
4/17/2021
3/27/2021
3/6/2021
2/13/2021
1/23/2021
1/2/2021
12/12/2020
11/21/2020
10/31/2020
10/10/2020
9/19/2020
8/29/2020
8/8/2020
7/18/2020
6/27/2020
6/6/2020
5/16/2020
4/25/2020
4/4/2020
3/14/2020
2/22/2020
0
2/1/2020
10
Note:Dataoncases,deaths,andtestingisnotepo r rtedonweekendsorstateholidays.Thisdataisepo r rtedonthefirstday following the weekend or holiday. Data on administered vaccines is reported daily. Case rate is based on a 7-day average with a 7-day lag. Rates of deaths is based on a 7-day average with a 21-day lag due to delays in reporting. Test positivity is based on a 7-day average with no lag. Directional change is compared to the prior 7-day period. Data is provided by the California Department of Public Health. The population denominators used for the per 100K rates come from the California Department ofFinance’spopulationprojectionsfor20. Source: State of California COVID-19 Dashboard, Tracking COVID-19 in California, Update for July 16, 2021
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STUDENTS Another demographic that has been drastically affected by the pandemic is students. From elementary school to graduate school, students have been displaced, isolated, and forced to adapt to an entirely new way of learning. Orange County public schools were closed in March 2020 when the pandemic began and started reopening in October, long before schools in other parts of California.39 Data from MAP Growth reading and math assessments show that students fell behind academically during the pandemic as compared to students from the year before.40
MAP GROWTH PERCENTILES IN MATH BY GRADE LEVEL IN FALL 2019 AND FALL 2020 n F19
Percentile Rank
60
n F20
55 50 45 40 Grade 3
Grade 4
Grade 5
Grade 6
Grade 7
Grade 8
Note: Each bar represents the median percentile rank in a given grade/term. Source: Author calculations with MAP Growth data.
However, not all students are being affected uniformly. As of early May 2021, 87 percent of California’s public schools have reopened for in-person learning. However, less than half of students have returned either full-time or part-time in a hybrid model. During the pandemic, 45 percent of students were in distance learning in Orange County, compared to 83 percent in Los Angeles County. EdSource research found that, “two-thirds of students in district schools with the largest proportions of low-income families were in distance learning, compared with only 43% of students in schools with the fewest low-income families.”41 This means that school districts in higher income areasav h esenerom tstden u st backper -ni ot soear l n gni an ht ess l affluendit stct ir s.ghiH erOVI C D at r esness il affluent areasay m av h e disicen n ed ziv t parenst frmosendign eiht r chdrli en backro teachers from returning to campus.
https://edsource.org/2020/a-look-at-orange-county-as-first-in-a-wave-of-school-reopenings-in-california/641701 h ttps://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2020/12/03/how-is-covid-19-affecting-student-learning/ 41 h ttps://edsource.org/2021/new-data-55-of-california-public-school-students-remain-in-distance-learning/653848 39
56
40
This trend occurred on a larger scale in higher education as well, with fouryear college enrollment dropping 29 percent for students from lower-income high schools, a much larger decline than the national average of 13 percent, according to data from a McKinsey report.42 Furthermore, “the rates of Black, Hispanic, and Native American students returning to college were lower than at ht fo Wheti stden u s,” t eflect r gni eht disprpoo at noitr ebuden r OVI C Das h had on disadvantaged students. Postponing college enrollment is described as a “privileged person’s game” by Sara Urquidez, executive director of ASP al D as, l aprno fit o at ht prdes ivo coege l cosel nu gni foco ni-wol r em andfirstgeneration high school students. She says that the choice between full-time work and full-time school is not even a choice many students are able to make; if their family needs them to work, “school is absolutely going to go by the wayside.” Students in community or four-year colleges have had their futures turned upside down when the pandemic forced more than half a million students across the country to drop out of college, according to the McKinsey report. Men are reportedly dropping out at nearly three times the rate that women are, elkil y due ot eedi n gn ot ak t e a secodn b. oj President fo Soest whtu Tennessee Community College, Tracy Hall said “life” happened to their students, when they needed to care for ill parents or children: “COVID-19 si stuj anerhto slapeht ni faceat hw ot eyht ’vealeady r beenexpereni cig.n ” All students have been impacted by the pandemic in one way or another, but not to the same extent. Family income, resources, and access to internet have created very different experiences for students of different income levels throughout the state and county. A return to more normalcy in the fall will hopefully lessen these disparities and help students get back on track.
42
https://www.mckinsey.com/about-us/covid-response-center/inclusive-economy/covid-19-crisis-pushes-us-students-intoan-uncertain-job-market?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck&hdpid=50c5001b-7e04-4b38-9766-754b605ff813&hctky=1945270&hlkid=40378e83f6b9408098d53c67e57b756f
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REMOTE WORK’S POTENTIAL IMPACT ON WORKFORCE HOUSING California has some of the most expensive housing markets in the country, one of the most notable being Orange . County Fr so long, the state’s globally competitve job market and world-class employers outweighed the cost of living for many residents. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought about drastic changes to how people are working and long-term transitions to remote work could disrupt this balance. In Orange County, “home prices are among the highest in Southern California, over $200,000 more than the state’s average.”43 An extreme shortage of workforce housing is continually forcing prices higher at a time when the feasibility and appeal of remote work is increasing, creating potential for migration-driven demographic shifts.
Cost of Living Index: Above
100
= higher than national average
Cost of Living in Orange County:
167.7
44
Average Cost of Living in California:
149.9
Average Cost of Living in the U.S.:
100
For decades, workforce housing has been a prominent policy focus in Orange County and California. Due to the high demand for housing in California, along with a persistent shortage of housing supply — estimates of the shortage vary from one to three million homes statewide — prices continue to skyrocket.45 While experts differ in their analysis of population shifts both within and outside of California, discretionary relocation and workforce housing shortages have certainly impacted California demographics, causing what some experts term an “exodus” from California as a means of escaping crowded areas and everincreasing prices.46 Remote work will potentially accelerate these changes and, in turn, result in dramatic changes to the housing market. Remote work, in other words, has already started to upend traditional housing and labor market forces. In the past, employment opportunities often centered on population centers and/or employment and transportation hubs, with businesses competing by offering higher salaries and the ensuing high housing demand driving up home prices. If widespread remote work outlasts the pandemic, which seems increasingly likel,y significanongot ingimpactscouldesu r a inlt profoundalternatofin traditionallocation-basedlabor and housing market dynamics.
https://patch.com/california/orange-county/orange-countys-median-housing-prices-remain-sky-high-over-1-1m https://www.bestplaces.net/cost_of_living/county/california/orange 45 https://www.cato.org/blog/whats-going-californias-housing-market#:~:text=Even%20low%E2%80%90%E2%80%8Bend%20 estimates,a%203.5%20million%20home%20shortfall 46 https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-01-12/california-exodus-intensifying-retirees-musicians-teachers-actors 43 44
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Others, such as the California Policy Lab’s research, found that thus far the pandemic has not so much caused an exodus from California, but rather has caused people to relocate within the state.47 The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) found that those who did leave the state were primarily lower- and middle-income residents who were displaced by rising housing costs 48 The direction of relocation within California has primarily been from the ro ni search fo bs. oj most expensive counties to the cheaper, more suburban and rural ones with higher proportions of single-family detached housing, evidence that a lifestyle shift from the pandemic and remote work is already occurring.
NET MIGRATION BY COUNTY, Q4 2020 10, 000 1,582
2,014
2,541
Vent ura
San Bern ar dino
River side
0
-1 0,0 00
-8 30, -11,528
-2 0,0 00
-20,612
-3 0,0 00
-4 0,0 00
-5 0,0 00 -51,361 -6 0,0 00 Los Angel es
San Franci sco
San Die go
Orange
Source: California Policy Lab, Calexodus: Are People Leaving California?
Oterh perspectes vi do find at ht grimtuo atnoi frmo al C foi a inr si a grgniwo ssu i e. ccodir gn ot the New York Times, “hundreds of thousands of people did leave California entirely during the pandemic, with Texas as the primary destination, and Arizona and Nevada close on its heels.” They cite catalysts such as “high taxes, and disagreements over Gov. Gavin Newsom’s strict Covid-19 lockdowns.” However, Dr. Richard K. Green, Chair of the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California, has stated that “the root cause is likely much more simple: 49 In his opinion, “the high level takeaway is that you’ve got a lot eyht stuj codnlu ’taffodr ase. uoh ” more people moving to other states than coming here from other U.S. states.”50
https://www.capolicylab.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/CalExodus-Are-People-Leaving-California.pdf https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-moving-in/ 49 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/realestate/california-real-estate.html 50 https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/02/11/whats-driving-californias-exodus 47 48
60
N E T MI G R ATION OF CA LIFORNIA TAX F ILERS , T HO US ANDS 0 -50 -100 -150
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
-250
2000
-200
Source: California Legislative Analyst’s Office, Net Taxpayer Outmigration Increased During 2017-2019
nI fact, al C foi a’s i nr egi L slatevi al n sty ’s Office (LO) stdiu ed RS I data at ht shed wo etn taxpayer outmigration from California increased from 2017–2019, which seemingly contradicts the data from the University of California and the California Policy Lab.51 This datasal im gni enm an t deht pact mi fo OVI C 19-D suggestay mti beear o t defin otyl elvit y say if people are leaving California in larger numbers than before. However, it is impossible to deny that California is experiencing historically low population growth and even declines, enough for the state to recently lose a Congressional seat. The cause of this phenomenon is complex, likely due in large part to the state’s high cost of living and housing shortage. Thsi si prenvo byeht factat ht erwol co ni em seh uoh ds lo fleenar il geretn ber mun s,elihw wealthier households tend to enter, although even that trend may have reversed recently.52 THE CURRENT PANDEMIC-INDUCED HOUSING MARKET The pandemic housing market has caused house hunters to “go to extremes to win homes,” according to CBS News.53 Homes are being put into lotteries due to record-level competition for family homes in California’s suburbs.54 Buyers have been offering well over asking price, waiving inspections, and offering other enticements in a time of unusually high demand. The National Association of Realtors reported that housing prices are currently around 15 percent higher nationally than they were a year earlier. Not only in Orange County, but nationally, 99 percent of U.S. metro areas experienced year-over-year (YOY) home price cr ni easesdugnir eht firstar uq ert fo 1, 20 erhw eas52 ylno percensaw t grfo htw eht same 55 calber i eht ni firstar uq ert fo .02
https://lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/Detail/675?mc_cid=963c1cec5e&mc_eid=62119e3d27 https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2021/02/11/whats-driving-californias-exodus 53 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/housing-real-estate-market-home-buying-difficulty/ 54 https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/29/business/economy/new-home-building-suburbs.html 55 https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/ninety-nine-percent-of-u-s-metros-recorded-rising-home-prices-in-q1_o?utm_ source=newsletter&utm_content=Article&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BP_051821& 51 52
61
As of July 2021, the median price of an existing single-family home in Orange County was priced at over $1.09 million dollars, representing an increase of 23.9 percent compared to the previous ear. y soL gel n esad h ytnuoC eht ghih estpmuj sal ni escopar m edeht o prear y roi at6.4percen,t followed by Ventura (1.9 percent) and San Diego (1.4 percent) counties. San Bernardino County saw eht ghih est pmuj ni prces i ervo eht past ear y at 5.2 7 percent h iw Orange and Rierv side counties closely behind.
SO U THE RN CA LIFORN IA C O UNT Y MEDIAN HO ME PRIC E AND SA L E S, J U LY 2 0 2 1 MEDIAN PRICE
Los Angeles
YOY PERCENT YOY PERCENT CHANGE IN PRICE CHANGE IN SALES
$809,750
22.6%
6.4%
Orange
$1,090,000
23.9%
1.1%
Riverside
$570,000
23.4%
-9.9%
San Bernardino
$440,000
25.7%
-13.2%
San Diego
$860,000
19.6%
1.4%
Ventura
$825,000
14.6%
1.9%
Source: California Association of Realtors, Current Sales and Price Statistics
The rapid increase in Orange County’s median home price is due to a combination of factors. A historically strong labor market and economy continually attract working professionals into the egi r fono bu o r stb oj ppo o es, it nu r elihw beaufuit beach l es,emht epars, k etr yrux laidest l at ni s, noi world-renowned educational institutions, and diverse communities cultivate a high quality of life for new and existing residents. As the demand to live and work in the region increased, the supply of housing failed to keep pace resulting in skyrocketing prices. Orange County is becoming a victim of its own success, as these ever-increasing home prices are pushing many young families and working professionals into less expensive regions. The supply of housing is not a problem singular to Orange County. The entire Southern California egi r as h no asignfican i ack l t fo siuoh gn supplaty ear n alyl co ni l em evl els.ccodir gn eht otSoerhtu n California Association of Governments (SCAG) 6th Regional Housing Needs Assessment covering the planning period from October 2021 to October 2029, Orange County needs an additional 183,861 housing units56 of which 41.1 percent are either very low-income or low-income housing units.
62
56
https://scag.ca.gov/sites/main/files/file-attachments/6th-cycle-rhna-final-allocation-plan.pdf?1625161899
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS (SCAG) 6TH REGIONAL HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT HOUSING NEEDS ALLOCATION VERY-LOW INCOME
LOW INCOME
MODERATE INCOME
ABOVE MODERATE INCOME
TOTAL
4,671
2,357
2,198
6,767
15,993
Los Angeles
217,273
123,022
131,381
340,384
812,060
Orange
46,416
29,242
32,456
75,657
183,861
Riverside
41,995
26,473
29,167
69,716
167,351
San Bernardino
35,667
21,903
24,140
56,400
138,110
Ventura
5,774
3,810
4,525
10,343
24,542
351,796
206,807
223,957
559,267
1,341,827
Imperial
Total
Source: Southern California Association of Governments 6th Regional Housing Needs Assessment
According to academic and policy research most notably conducted by Dr. John Landis, former Chair of thean City dRegionalPlannigDepartmenat t theUniversiofty California,Berkeley,aratofi 1.5jobsper new home provides an acceptable balance for workforce housing — a higher ratio indicates more workers per job and, as such, less housing for workers. In the Workforce Housing Scorecard 2019-2020, OCBC identifies the housing shortage in Orange County at around 58,00 units esu r lting in a new jobs to new housingratofi 1.58,aratwhich o isprojectedincr to ease1.to 69astheegi r onalhousingshortagegrows to 115,000 units. This indicates that housing scarcity is likely to increase in Orange County in the coming decades, keeping overall supply low and prices high.
Housing Shortage (in units) 2020: 58,000 2045: 115,000
New Jobs per New Housing Ratio 2020: 1.58 2045: 1.69
O C BC WO RKF O RCE HO US ING S CO R E CA R D C IT Y RANK INGS , 2016–2030 1. Irvine 2. Santa Ana 3. Lake Forest 4. Anaheim
5. Buena Park 31. Seal Beach 32. Villa Park
33. Laguna Beach 34. Laguna Woods 35. La Palma*
*The OCBC Workforce Housing Scorecard included an analysis of all 34 incorporated cities in Orange County as well as a combination of all the unincorporated Orange County areas, communities which fall outside of incorporated city boundaries, as a 35th “city.” This allowed for a much more comprehensive analysis of Orange County’s workforce housing situation.
The cities with e best rankingsepo r rt noable projected job and housing growth in e fue.tur In other ds, wor thetopfiveareplannigfonow fur etur gran owth dtendbe to thein centeroftheco,unty closerto growing employment and industry hubs. Overall, they are successfully addressing the housing shortage by providing adequate workfoce r housing to meet fuetur job growth. Cies at the botom f the list are not accomplishing this and tend to be more developed, expensive cities such as Laguna Beach, Villa Park, and Seal Beach that may be reluctant to add large-scale workforce housing.
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NEW HOUSING CONSTRUCTION tak I essignfican i emti forbuder li scr onti easeeiht rprduo ctnfoi ewn es moh der nrio oeet tm the demand. Inspections, regulations, permits, lack of building sites, and rising prices of building products all slow the process. Sales have outpaced new construction starts by the “largest gap ever,” according to National Association of Home Builders Chief Economist Robert Dietz.57
O R A NGE COU N TY SIN GLE FAMILY AND MULT I- FAMILY HO US IN G STA RTS, 2 0 1 8 –2 0 2 0 2018
2019
2020
Single-Family Residential Starts
4,500
3,200
4,000
Multi-Family Residential Starts
3,900
5,200
3,600
Source: FirstTuesdayJournal, Orange County Housing Indicators, June 20, 2021
Orange County saw a decrease in new homes built in 2020 due at least in part to slowdowns from the pandemic. However, single family construction increased while multi-family decreased. The Orange County Housing Indicators data shows that “after years of increased single family residential (SFR) construction starts, 2018 and 2019 both saw a decrease in the number of new SFRs started. In 2020, the trend reversed, with SFR construction rising and multi-family declining.” U.S. builders are on track to start construction on 1.1 million single-family homes this year, the most since 2006.58 Remote work, already a growing trend before the pandemic, will likely continue long past it, as expled ro nisht epo r ’s tr chapter no OVI C 19-D and eht erut F fo Wo,kr and codlu signfican i ylt impact the housing market by allowing workers to move far away from their workplaces. This codlu poent al it ylead otaj m ro prce i coect r snoi ni expensiev siuoh gn ar m etk s, such as Orange County and Silicon Valley. They have already resulted in increased home prices in rural areas, which nonetheless remain affordable and attractive to young families. While the full effects of increased remote work on the housing market remain to be seen, the housing market is currently booming, with Orange County home values reaching new, record-setting highs seemingly every month.
CHANGES IN HOUSING DEMAND BY TYPE Approximately 51 percent of Orange County’s housing is single-family detached homes, with multi-unit housing accounting for only 33.7 percent in 2020. However, with the shortage of new, detached home construction and lack of turnover, multi-unit housing is growing in importance. Wheli fam -itlum yldev i elpmo entsi eht stom an l d-efficientay w cr onti easeeht supplyfo siuoh gn and alleviate the shortage, the pandemic has shifted homebuyer’s demand away from multi-family and toward single-family housing.
64
57 58
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article248460985.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/29/business/economy/new-home-building-suburbs.html
Multi-family housing industry leader David Blackwell says the pandemic and remote work, “will adversely affect multi-family development in larger metropolitan areas, as employees will forgo small expensive apartments in dense urban areas for affordable housing in the suburbs, exurbs, or in less expensive states. Adding a lingering fear of viral transmission could indeed result in a steady 59 However, he predicts that eventually most workers will return to work flotuo frw ban ru mo areas.” in-person and demand for urban multi-family housing will increase once again. Yardi Matrix data shows that, in 2020, “developers broke ground on 1,810 units, accounting for nearly one-third of the market’s 5,872 units underway” in Orange County.60 Despite Orange ’s ytnuoC epu r at t noi for expensiev siuoh g, n 10 fo eht 52 prect jo s der nu ay w are fuyl affodabl r e housing. Demand is expected to increase once again following the pandemic, which is when the siuoh gn prect jo scuenr ehnytil pipeleni areschedued l obe t coplm eted.co E c imon cer nu ai t ytn and permitting delays due to the pandemic caused construction of multi-family units to lag, yet they have since picked back up.61
POPULATION CHANGES
0.1%
0. 2%
0.2%
0.2%
0. 4%
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0. 6%
0.6%
0. 8%
0.7%
1. 0%
0.8%
O R A NG E C O U N TY SIN GLE FA MILY AND MULT I- FAMILY HO US ING S TA RTS, 2 0 1 8 –2 0 2 0
-0 .2%
-0.5%
-0 .4%
-0.2%
0.0%
0. 0%
-0 .6%
-0.8%
-0 .8% -1 .0% 201 5
201 6
201 7 California
201 8
201 9
202 0
202 1
Orange County
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, E-4 Population Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State, 2011-2021, with 2010 Census Benchmark. Sacramento, California, May 2021.
https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/multi-family-market-sentiment-continues-4262535/ https://www.multihousingnews.com/post/top-5-multifamily-projects-under-construction-in-orange-county/ 61 https://www.multihousingnews.com/post/construction-delays-continue-for-multifamily-developers/ 59 60
65
Orange County’s population had begun its decline in 2019, shrinking by 0.1 percent, followed by a 0.2 percent decline in 2020 and another 0.8 percent decline so far in 2021. At the same time, the state of California saw its population increase slightly in both 2019 and 2020 before seeing a 0.5 percent decline in population in 2021. These population declines are the result of increased outmigration likely spurred by the increasingly high cost of living, especially in Orange County which is forcing many families to seek out more affordable housing outside the region. From 2011 to 2016, population growth in all Orange County cities outpaced housing unit growth as the region’s rapid recovery from the previous recession gained steam and the strengthening labor market and discounted home prices attracted working professionals and families of all ages. As demand to live and work in the region continued to increase, home prices rose and the supply of available homes began to dwindle, further driving large increases in home values. As home prices reached new highs, many residents began to cite affordability issues — especially young families and young professionals looking to establish themselves in the area. As such, domestic outmigration began to increase year-over-year and population growth slowed dramatically. Between 2016 and 2021, housing unit growth outpaced population growth in every city in Orange County. The two charts below help highlight this shift.
201 1-20 16 Population Growth
Fountain Val ley Fountain Val ley Newpor t Beach Newpor t Beach Laguna Beach Laguna Beach Laguna Woods Laguna Woods Laguna Niguel Laguna Niguel Dana Point Dana Point
CypresCsypress OrangO e range
La Pal m Laa Pal ma Garden G Garrdoevne Gr ove
Vi ll a PaVrikll a Park
San ClS ea mneC ntle emente
LagunaLaHgilulsna Hil ls
BuenaBPuaer kna Par k
Aliso ViA eljioso Viejo
Los AlaLm oistoAslamitos
Sn anat a Ana Sant a A
Seal BeSaecahl Beach
RaSnacnhto Saanrg taarM Rancho aM i taargari ta
West mW inestset m r inster
Stanton Stanton
La HabLraa Habr a
AnaheA i mnahei m C Co st a Moesstaa Mesa
Irvi ne
Irvi ne
Brea
16. 0% 141. 0 8% . 0% 6% . 0% 121. 0 4% . 0% 101. 0 1 2 . 0% 8. 0% 1 0 . 0% 6. % 8% . 0% 4. 0 6% . 0% 2. 0 4% . 0% 0. 0 2 . 0% -2 .0% 0. 0% -2 .0%
Brea Tust in Tust in Lake Fo rest Lake Fo rest Yor ba Linda Yor ba Linda Full ert on Full ert on Hunt ington Beach Hunt ington Beach Mi ssio n Viej o Mi ssio n Viej o San Juan Capistr ano San Juan Capistr ano Pl acenP tilaacenti a
P O P U LATION A N D HOU S ING UNIT GRO WT H BY O RANGE CO UNTY 18C . 0% I T Y, 2 0 1 1 –2 0 1 6
201 1-20 16 Housin g Unit Gr ow th
201 1-20 16ofPo pulation GrPopulation owth 20Housing 1 1-20 16Estimates Housin gfor UnCities, it Gr oCounties w th Source: State of California, Department Finance, E-5 and and the State — January 1, 2011-2021. Sacramento, California, May 2021.
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20PO . 0% P U L AT I O N
A N D H OU SIN G U NIT GRO WT H BY O RANGE CO UNT Y C I T Y, 2 0 1 6 – 2 0 2 1
15. 0% 20. 0% 10. 0% 15. 0% 5. 0% 10. 0%
201 6-20 21 Population Growth
ag Laguna WLo ou dn s a Woods
La Pal maLa Pal ma Vi ll a ParkVi ll a Park
sio n Viej o Mi ssio n VMiei sj o
Laguna BLeaagcuhna Beach
Pl acenti aPl acenti a
FountainFVoauln letyain Val ley
o aSragnatrai taMargari ta Rancho SRaanntcahM
Dana PoiD ntana Point L Lo s Al amio tossAl ami tos
Orange Orange eal Beach Seal BeaS ch
nte Clemente San ClemSean F u Full ert on ll ert on
Brea
Brea
Irvi ne
-5 .0%
Irvi ne
-5 .00% . 0%
Lake Fo rest Lake Fo rest Laguna Ni guel Laguna Ni guel La Habr a La Habr a Aliso Viejo Aliso Viejo Anaheim Anaheim Stanton Stanton Yor ba Linda Yor ba Linda Laguna Hil ls Laguna Hil ls San Juan Capistr ano San Juan Capistr ano Cypress Cypress Co st a Mesa Co st a Mesa Hunt ington Beach Hunt ington Beach Newpor t Beach Newpor t Beach Tust in Tust in Sant a Ana Sant a Ana Buena Par k Buena Par k Garden Gr ove Garden Gr ove West minster West minster
0. 0% 5. 0%
201 6-20 21 Housin g Unit Gr ow th
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State — 201 6-California, 20 21 Popu latio2021. n Growth 201 6-20 21 Housin g Unit Gr ow th January 1, 2011-2021. Sacramento, May
AGING POPULATIONS IN ORANGE COUNTY AND CALIFORNIA Another factor that has impacted the housing market is the “graying” of Orange County, and California as a whole. Between 2020 and 2060 in Orange County, residents 65 and over are the only population segment expected to grow as a percentage of overall population.
ME DI A N A G E OF RE SIDE N TS IN O RANGE C O UNT Y, 2009–2019 39. 0
38.6 37.8
38. 0 37.1 Median Age
37. 0
37.3
37.5
36.7 36
36. 0
36.2
36.4
35.7 35.3
35. 0
34. 0 200 9
201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-year Estimates
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
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Orange County’s aging population will likely result in a lack of turnover in housing markets as people “age in place” and remain in their homes. This will make it more expensive for younger families to live in the county, which will only reinforce aging population trends.
80%
Under 5 Year s
5 to 9 Year s
15.3% 21.1%
11.3% 8.4%
16.8%
-6.1% -15.9%
-4 0%
-0.9%
-2 0%
-13.3% -22.1%
0%
-3.2%
1.4%
20%
5.9% 7.1%
40%
-3.1% -13.3%
Population Change
60%
72.5% 84.7%
70.4% 68.5%
100 %
35.5% 53.4%
120 %
78.7% 85.2%
104.1% 103.1%
POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE COHORT IN ORANGE COUNTY AND CALIFORNIA, 2000–2019
10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 Years Year s Year s Year s Year s Year s Year s Year s Year s Year s Year s and Ov er
California
Orange County
Source: U.S. Census, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates
WHO IS LEAVING CALIFORNIA? According to Business Insider, “remote work ignited a rebound in residential migration as the ber mun fo ervom scr ni eased16% ot ,02 ni pu fr14% mo 1902 ni —as w ti eht firstUSgrim atnoi ht “teh ar l gest pmuj ni esi r denal it increase in over a decade.”62 parenmt t stiL data fodnu at migration took place among high-income households earning over $150,000, who for the last decadeav h eactal u been yl eht east l e.elvkoiml ot ”y Theypoemr ot eonas i krow eht aj m drro ervi fo eht enrt d,aseal w erkrowyht sed vom fuerhtr frb ojm cenert sanderw eerom elkil elroty cat o e than on-site workers.63
68
62 63
https://www.businessinsider.com/wealthy-millennials-moving-suburbs-buying-houses-upended-migration-trends-2021-5 https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/remote-work-wealthy-americans-moving-again
REMOTE WORK IS DRIVING THE 2020 MIGRATION BOOM T H E S H A R E OF W ORKE RS W HO MO VED BET WEEN APRIL 2020 AND AP R I L 2 0 2 1
One-Year Mover Rate
35%
32.7%
30%
24.8%
25% 20%
21.0%
22.9%
17.6%
15.5%
15%
16.4%
10%
Overall
13.5% 8.7%
5% <$25K
$25-50K
19.7% Remote Workers
$50-75K
7.7%
8.3% On-site Workers
$75-100K $100-$150K >$150K
Household Income
Note: Limited to full-time workers, ages 18+ Source: Apartment ListRemote Work Survey, April 2021
As seen in the graph below from the California Policy Lab, exits have increased more for the top 10 percent of the wealthiest ZIP codes than for the bottom 90 percent. Although lower- and middle-income residents historically leave in larger numbers, the increase in exits from the wealthiest residents suggests at ht affluenesi rt denst emhtiw plenmyo am t enableemrot eto sukrow chasech t bs oj ay m beelr cat o gni along with their transition to remote work. Sixty-eight percent of workers with a postgraduate degree can do their work from home, compared to only 17 percent of workers with a high school diploma or less.64 The ability to work remotely increases with education and income, meaning wealthy workers in the tech and professional industries are among the most capable of continuing to work remotely.
YE A R - O V E R -YE A R P E RCE N T C HANGE IN CALIF O RNIA ENT RANC ES AN D E X I T S, BY IN COM E , 2 0 1 6 – 20 Entrances
Exits
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-20%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
n Top 10% wealthiest ZIPs
64
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
n Bottom 90% of ZIPs
https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/12/09/how-the-coronavirus-outbreak-has-and-hasnt-changed-the-wayamericans-work/
69
THE PANDEMIC’S EFFECTS ON RENT AND HOUSING AFFORDABILITY The pandemic is clearly changing who chooses to move, along with why and where people move. According to Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, Sam Khater, “There’s clearly a relationship between affordability and migration. In the past Americans used to move for opportunity. But in recent years, they’ve been moving for affordability.”65 Entering the second year of the pandemic, “more than ten million households are behind on rent—more than three times the historical rate”66 according to McKinsey & Company. Orange County enacted emergency rental assistance programs to help renters who were struggling due to the pandemic. Governor Gavin Newsom also extended the state eviction moratorium through the end of September 2021, preventing landlords from evicting tenants if they cannot pay due D et ese ht easu m es r elhot p,eht pandemc i as h signfican i pact m iy l t edeht state’s to COVID.67espi already-existing housing crisis, making housing even less affordable for Californians, and the case for relocating even more compelling.
RETHINKING RETAIL WITH THE TRANSITION TO REMOTE WORK E-commerce and online shopping have become mainstream during the pandemic with the widespread closure and health risks of brick-and-mortar retail. In 2020, e-commerce as a share of total retail sales grew at 3.3 times the rate before COVID-19.68
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/28/realestate/california-real-estate.html https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-social-sector/our-insights/preserving-the-largest-and-most-at-risk-supply-ofaffordable-housing 67 https://calmatters.org/housing/2021/06/california-eviction-moratorium-deal/ 68 https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-after-covid-19 65 66
70
YE A R - O V E R -YE A R G ROW TH OF E- C O MMERC E AS S HARE O F T O TAL RE TA I L SA L E S, P E RCE N TA G E P OINT S 2020 – 5.7 4.8
4.6
1.6x
4.5x
3.3x
3.0
2.8
4.7x
1.4
2015-19 average – 1.3 0.8
0.6 United Kingdom
China
United States
Spain
24
27
20
9
E-commerce sales as % of total retail sales, 2020
2020 – 1.8
2.3x
2015-19 average – 0.8 E-commerce sales as % of total retail sales, 2020
1.6 0.7
2.1x
1.2 0.6
2.0x
1.1 0.6
Germany
India
France
Japan
14
7
9
10
1.8x
Source: Retailing by Euromonitor International 2021; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
South Coast Plaza debuted a collection of outdoor, open-air, private shopping suites called the Pavilion to combat the COVID retail restrictions. They are available by appointment only, following an online preference survey, and still require social distancing, masks, and other precautions. With the increased appeal of online shopping, this hybrid format may continue after the pandemic.69 Orange County is recognized for its retail centers; places such as Fashion Island and South Coast Plaza have become tourist destinations. Furthermore, retail employs 1 in 10 Orange County residents, making up a considerable part of the workforce. Zoning for retail rather than housing si erom prfit o ablebecausefo eht salesax t generatci inum ot noi pales. it evwoH er,eht pandemc i and lifestyle changes that working from home has brought about are changing the appeal and purpose of retail centers and malls. Now that online retail is more prominent than ever, the demand for retail space is decreasing. Although retail is important in Orange County, the way retail is changing could be a blessing in disguise. Brick and mortar shopping has become more of an experience, and customers
69
https://www.southcoastplaza.com/the-pavilion/
71
want entertainment, gathering spaces, and dining along with their shopping. This transition to more multi-use spaces could be a valuable opportunity to help the housing and affordability crisis that has been exacerbated by the pandemic. Repurposing excess retail space can help create more workforce housing, as Bella Terra in Huntington Beach and Platinum Triangle in Anaheim have already done. In Placentia, located in north Orange County, a large mixed-use development prect jo si der nu ay w at ht lco iw ai tn n418aparenmt st and8,20sqar u efeetfo etr ailspace.l itwI not only help the lack of housing supply in Placentia but also help revitalize the downtown into an urban center.70 Creating higher density housing near experiential shopping centers may be the solution for both the housing crisis and loss of retail revenue. However, with the transition to remote work, people av h ebecoem ertni estedar lni ger,erom spaced-siuoht gn fomo rhtiw an r ffice o anderhto -ni home amenities. While housing affordability and shortages are now more pressing than ever, highdensity apartments located in or near shopping and gathering areas may become less desirable following the pandemic. Time will tell.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FUTURE OF HOUSING IN ORANGE COUNTY AND CALIFORNIA AT LARGE? OCBC’s Workforce Housing Scorecard 2019–2020 demonstrates that many California counties and cies it coeunit otatact rt peoplehtistw gno r b oj ar m etk s,eiht r abiytoilatact rt busiesses, n andprb ojyt im xo cenert s.fI eht an rt siemornt i eto kco row es unit aftereht pandemc, i asti si elkil yotdo,al C foi a’s i nr advanage t fo av h gni bustgnil b oj cenert sandduni stes ir ay m becoem less of a competitive advantage. Remote work has the potential to decrease the demand for expensive housing markets located near business and industry centers. Economists at Builder den i fied it Rierv side and San erB ar n dion coes itnu as emergign siuoh gn ar m etk s otat w ch. Their analysis considered the effects of working from home, infrastructure, and home prices among other things. They predict that residents of Los Angeles and Orange counties will begin to move inland in search of cheaper, more spacious housing now that they are no longer tied to in-person work in the Los Angeles metro area.71 They predict a similar phenomenon in which the Sacramento region absorbs people relocating from the expensive, crowded Bay Area.
FINAL THOUGHTS Increased demand for relocating to larger, more affordable homes, along with a pressing housing shortage, may accelerate the exodus from California that has already started. Orange County needs to build more affordable workforce housing units to reduce the shortage, but also should build more family-friendly homes to appease the demand for more space. Housing affordability was already a leading issue in Orange County that has only been worsened by the impacts of the pandemic. COVID-19 and the related transition to remote work will continue to accelerate the changes occurring in Orange County’s housing markets.
70
72
71
ttps://www.multihousingnews.com/post/jpi-secures-financing-for-socal-development/ h https://www.builderonline.com/data-analysis/2021s-key-markets-work-from-home-meets-migration-and-infrastructure_o
HOPE IS GROWING City of Hope is bringing its lifesaving cancer care to more OC locations
We’re delivering on our promise to bring lifesaving cancer care closer to home. That’s why City of Hope is adding three new locations to our Orange County network to help more people who need us. With our world-class cancer center opening in Irvine in 2022, hope is truly growing. Learn more at CityofHope.org/OC
© 2021 City of Hope
Huntington Beach | Irvine Sand Canyon | Newport Beach Fashion Island | Newport Beach Lido
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A NOTE REGARDING THE PANDEMIC’S IMPACT ON THIS YEAR’S REPORT: EDUCATION DATA Orange County Community Indicators relies on the most accurate, current data from a multitude of private, public, and government sources. The Education section of this report and several of its sub-sections rely on data aggregated, analyzed, and presented by the California Department of Education through its DataQuest portal. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and associated state government mandated school closures, many of the data points provided in prior years of the Orange County Community Indicators are not available for the 2019–2020 academic school year. Specifical,ly theCaliforniassessmenoft StudenPer t formanceandProgress(CSPP)andPhysical Fitness Exams for 2019–2020 were not administered or placed on hold. This impacted both the Academic Performance: English and Academic Performance: Math sections as well as the Health & Fitness section, which provided indicators of student health and obesity. Additionally, the College and Career Readiness section provided measures of enrollment in Career-Technical Education (CTE), Advanced Placement (AP), and International Baccalaureate (IB); these data points were also unavailable due to impacts related to the pandemic, and therefore will be unavailable for this year’s iteration of Orange County Community Indicators. Rather than omitting these sections completely, this year’s report instead aggregates the metrics for which new data was available from these sections and combines them below. In next year’s iteration of Orange County Community Indicators, data aggregation of these metrics will resume as data is made available. Suitable replacements will be included if data points continue to remain unavailable.
COLLEGE READINESS The percent of Orange County high school graduates eligible for entry into University of California (UC) or California State University (CSU) systems increased from 55.3 percent in 2018/19 to 55.8 percent in 2019/20. During the same time period, at the state-level UC/CSU eligible graduates increased from 50.5 percent to 50.9 percent. Despite the continued growth at both the county and state level, UC/ CSU eligible graduate growth has slowed, indicating that new strategies may need to be implemented to further guide students toward higher education programs.
74
Orange County’s three
UC/CSU ELIGIBILITY GROWTH CONTINUES TO INCREASE PER C E NTA GE OF H IGH SCHOOL GRADUAT ES T H AT A R E U C/CSU E LIG IBLE IN O RANGE C O UNT Y, 2 0 0 9 /1 0 – 2 0 19 /2 0 60%
50%
46.6% 42.8%
40%
48.9%
51.1%
50.4%
52.0%
54.6%
55.3%
55.8%
largest racial/ethnic groups have all seen signicantimprovements in UC/CSU eligibility since 2009/10, a metric that is a good indicator of overall college
43.3%
38.3%
preparation. While over the past year,
30%
Orange County’s Asian
20%
students – which boast the highest UC/CSU
10%
eligibility – experienced
0% 200 9/10 201 0/11 201 1/12 201 2/13 201 3/14 201 4/15 201 5/16 201 6/17 201 7/18 201 8/19 201 9/20 Orange County
California
a slight decline, dropping from 79.3 percent in
Source: California Department of Education, DataQuest
2018/19 to 78.4 percent
UC/CSU ELIGIBILITY DROPS SLIGHTLY FOR ASIAN STUDENTS; CONTINUES TO IMPROVE FOR LATINO/A AND WHITE STUDENTS
in 2019/20, eligibility of Orange County’s White and Latino/a students increased by 0.4 percentage points and
PER C E NTA GE OF H IGH SCHOOL GRADUAT ES ELI G I B L E F OR U C/CSU BY RA CE/ET HNICIT Y IN O R A NG E C O U N TY, 2 0 0 9 /1 0 –2 019/20
1.2 percentage points, respectively.
100 %
80%
78.4%
65.4%
Smallest Gap: 36 points 62.1%
Largest Gap: 44 points
60% 44.4% 40%
42.5%
20% 20.6% 0% 0 /1 09 0 2
1 /1 10 0 2
2 /1 11 0 2
3 /1 12 0 2
4 /1 13 0 2
Asi an
5 /1 14 0 2
Lat ino/a
6 /1 15 0 2
7 /1 16 0 2
8 /1 17 0 2
9 /1 18 0 2
0 /2 19 0 2
Whi te
Source: California Department of Education, DataQuest (http://data1.cde.ca.gov/dataquest/)
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HOW WILL YOU ANSWER THE CALL? Making meaningful, lasting impact begins with choosing the right partner to support your philanthropic vision. The Orange County Community Foundation (OCCF) partners with Orange County’s savviest donors to create lasting impact on the causes closest to their hearts. Whether you want to super-charge your current giving, spark a family tradition of philanthropy or ensure an enduring charitable legacy, OCCF is your ideal partner for strategic and effective giving.
LET US HELP BRING YOUR PHILANTHROPIC DREAMS TO LIFE!
76
CONTACT US AT 949.553.4202 OR VISIT OC‑CF.ORG
ECONOMY
EMPLOYMENT Orange County’s unemployment rate has consistently improved throughout 2021, reaching 6.3 percent in July 2021, well below its peak rate of 14.9 percent in May 2020, yet still well above the April 2019 rate of 2.5 percent. While Orange County’s unemployment rate is 1.6 percentage points below the state rate of 7.9 percent, it is also 0.6 percentage points above the national rate of 5.7 percent. Over the past year, employment in Orange County has expanded by 133,100 jobs to 1,487,200, an increase of slightly over 10 percent, while the number of unemployed individuals shrank by 90,800, or by 48 percent, totaling 99,500 in July 2021.
COUNTY AND STATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES LAG BEHIND NATION U N E M P LOYM E N T RATES IN O RANGE CO UNT Y, CALIF O RNIA , A ND U N I T E D STATE S, 2 0 1 0 –2021 18% High: 14.9%
16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Dec-1 0
Low: 2.5%
Dec-1 1
Dec-1 2
Dec-1 3
Dec-1 4
Unit ed St at es (5 .7 %)
Dec-1 5
Dec-1 6
California (7.9%)
Dec-1 7
Dec-1 8
Dec-1 9
Dec-2 0
Orange County ( 6.3 %)
Source: California Employment Development Department, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Betweenan 20July d201, July Orangehad County approximatel49y 4,315jobpostingswith a median posting duration of 29 days and an average advertised salary of $50,000. The city of Irvinecontiuedtodriveemploymentdemandintheegi r onwith113,461jobpostingsoverthe pastyear,folowedbynaheim(44,949jobpostings)andSantana(35,881jobpostings).The employers with the most job openings in the egi r on included University of California, Oracle Corporation,andmazon.comInc.,eflect r ingsomeofthemostin-demandoccupations.
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While COVID-19 caused job postings to decline 41 percent between July 2019 and July 20, they recovered by 37 percent during the following year, totaling 109,884 in July 2021. Software Developers and Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Tester was the most in-demand occupat20,0with on 57jobpostings,closelfoy lowedbyRegisteredNurses(19,660jobpostings) andHeavyandTract-Tror ailerTruckDrivers(15,185jobpostings).
UNIQUE JOB POSTINGS RECOVER FROM 2020 DECLINE TOTAL JOB POSTINGS IN ORANGE COUNTY, JULY 2019 – JULY 2021 160 ,00 0 137,028
140 ,00 0 120 ,00 0
109,884
-41%
+37%
100 ,00 0 80,449
80, 000 60, 000 40, 000 20, 000 0 Jul y 2 019
Jul y 2 020
Jul y 2 021
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International
SOFTWARE DEVELOPERS OVERTAKE REGISTERED NURSES AS MOST INDEMAND OCCUPATION M O S T I N - DE M A N D OCCU PATIONS IN O RANGE C O UNT Y BY JO B P O S TI N G S , JU LY 2 0 2 0 – JU LY 2021
Hea vy a nd Tra ctor-Tra iler Truck D rivers
Reta il Sa lesp ersons
Custom er Co mp uter Servic e Oc cupa tions, Rep resenta tives All Other
First-Line Superv iso rs of Reta il Sales Wo rkers
Ma rketing Ma na g ers
Ho me Hea lth a nd P erso nal Ca re Ai des
8,669
9,263
Reg istered Nurses
9,317
Sof twa re D evelop ers and Sof twa re Qua lity Assurance Ana lysts a nd Testers
9,418
0
9,680
5, 000
10,573
10, 000
12,110
15,185
15, 000
19,660
20, 000
20,507
25, 000
Stock ers a nd Ord er Fill ers
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International
79
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OrangeCounty’sindustcl ry ustersgrewbyover165,0jobs 0 between2011and2019, reaching total employment of nearly 770,000 before experiencing a decline of over 100,00 jobsfrom 2019to 20 due tohe COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, from 2011 to20hemostsignificantgrowthccued r in:
Computer
Construction
Biomedical
Health
percent
percent
percent
percent
+43.4 +41.6 +28.7 +22.5
Business & Professional Services
+14.3 percent
Five industry clusters saw employment declines since 2011:
Communications
Energy & Environment
Defense & Aerospace
-30.2 -22.8 -16.9 percent
percent
percent
Tourism
-13.9 percent
Computer Software
-2.6
percent
Between 2019 and 2020, industries with the fastest salary growth included:
Business & Professional Services
Computer Software
Computer Hardware
Communications
percent
percent
percent
percent
+8.4
+7.7
+5.9
+.54
All industry clusters have seen earnings improve since 2011, with the fastest growth taking place in Computer Software (37.7 percent) and Computer Hardware (36.9 percent).
81
TOURISM EMPLOYMENT SEES SIGNIFICANT DECLINE E M P LOY MENT AND AVERAGE S ALARIES IN O R A NGE COU N TY CLUS T ERS WIT H MO RE T HAN 50,000 J O B S, Jobs 2 0 1 1 –2 020 in Thousands Jobs
Jobs ininTThousands housands
250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 -
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
Cons truc tion Cons truc tion $90 $80 $90 $70 $80 $60 $70 $50 $60 $40 $50 $30 $40 $20 $30 $10 $20 $$10 $-
He alt h Servi ces
Tour ism
Bus ines s and Profess ional S ervi ces
Salaries He alt h Servi ces Tour ism Bus ines s and Profess ional S ervi ces in Thousands Salaries Salaries in in ThThousands ousands
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
Cons truc tion
He alt h Servi ces
Tour ism
Bus ines s and Profess ional S ervi ces
Cons truc tion
He alt h Servi ces
Tour ism
Bus ines s and Profess ional S ervi ces
Sources: California Employment Development Department; U.S. Inflation Calculator, reporting Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data provided by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.usinflationcalculator.com)
82
BIOMEDICAL ONLY INDUSTRY TO SEE EARNINGS DECLINE IN 2020 EMP L O Y M E N T A N D C O U NTY CLU STE RS 2011–2020
AV E RA GE S ALARIES IN O RANGE W ITH 50,000 JO BS O R F EWER, Jobs in ThJooubssands
JobsininTThousands housands
45 4 40 5 3 45 0 3 30 5 2 35 0 2 20 5 1 25 0 1 10 5 5 10 0 5 0
$160 $160 $140 $140 $120 $120 $100 $100 $80 $80 $60 $60 $40 $40 $20 $20 $$-
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
Computer S oftw ar e
Communic at ion
Energy and En vironmen t
B mpeudtieca Cioom r lS oftw ar e
C rd Co om mp muutneircH ataio nware
D ad ndEn Aveirro et Eneefergnys ean osnpmaecn
Biomedical
Compu StaelraHriaersdware
Defens e and Aerospace
laursieasnds in in TShao Salaries Thousands in Thousands
201 1 201 1
201 2 201 2
201 3 201 3
201 4 201 4
201 5 201 5
201 6 201 6
201 7 201 7
201 8 201 8
201 9 201 9
Computer S oftw ar e C r lS oftw ar e Bioom mpeudtieca
Communic at ion C ataio nware Co om mm puutneircH rd
Energy and En vironmen t E osnpmaecn Dneefergnys ean ad ndEn Aveirro et
Biomedical
Computer H ar dware
Defens e and Aerospace
Data Notes veragesalarieshavebeeninflation-adjustedto20dolars.
202 0 202 0
Sources: California Employment Development Department; U.S. Inflation Calculator, reporting Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data provided by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.usinflationcalculator.com) Note: Average salaries have been inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars.
83
As the economy and business environment recovered in Orange County, so did the number of woman-owned, minority-owned, and woman minorityowned businesses. The number of woman-owned businesses in Orange County increased from 389 in 2020 to 404 in 2021, while the number of minority-owned businesses increased from 98 to 112 and women minorityowned businesses increased from 42 to 47 during the same time period.
OC WOMAN-OWNED BUSINESSES SURPASSES SAN DIEGO COUNTY RE G IONAL WO MAN- O WNED, MINO RIT Y- O WN E D , A N D M INO RIT Y WO MAN- O WNED BUS INES S ES P E R 61 000 0 , 0 0 0 PEO PLE, 2021
0
37 37
81 81
42 42
46 46
108 108
104 104
47 47
0
47 47
100
112 112
100
52 52
200
121 121
300
237 237
254 254
300
90 90
400
360 360
400
200
84
402 402
500
348 348
500
404 404
600
62 62
These three major job centers have been heavily affected by the pandemic, especially Anaheim, which is the center of the county’s tourist industry. Their ability to withstand and bounce back will play a major role in the county’s overall recovery.
DIVERSITY IN BUSINESS
533 533
Before the pandemic hit, Irvine, Santa Ana, and Anaheim were Orange County’s major job centers,withsignicant opportunities for both resident workers and commuters. In Irvine, where job growth dramatically outpaced housing supply, 56 percent of jobs were lledbycommuters, compared to 3 percent in Anaheim and 1 percent in Santa Ana. This is likely due to the high cost of living in Irvine, where workers may be forced to live in neighboring cities or counties, while maintaining employment in the city.
ORA N GE C O UNT Y T O TAL JO BS BY ZIP C O DE, 2020
152 152
OC JOB CENTERS REMAIN STRONG
San Franci sco
San Die go
Orange
Santa Clara
Los Angel es San Bern ar dino
River side
San Franci sco
San Die go
Orange
Santa Clara
Los Angel es San Bern ar dino
River side
Woman-Own ed
M inority -Owned
M inority Woman-Own ed
Woman-O wn ed Insight M inority -Owned Source: Dun and Bradstreet, Market
M inority Woman-Own ed
HIGH-TECH DIVERSITY AND GROWTH Following the detailed rankings created by the Milken Institute in its 2021 Best Performing Cities Report, Orange County continued to show strength in high-tech sector employment concentrations – tied for 3rd place with Seattle and San Diego – yet fell in rankings measuring high-tech sector GDP output – from 82nd place in the 2020 iteration of this report to 126th in the most recent report.
ORANGE COUNTY TIES SEATTLE AND SAN DIEGO FOR HIGH-TECH EMPLOYMENT CONCENTRATION RA N K I N G S F OR H IGH-TE CH SE CT O R EMPLO YMENT C O NC ENT RAT IO N I N O R A N G E COU N TY COM PA RED T O PEER MET RO AREAS , 2021 METRO REGIONS
RANKINGS
METRO REGIONS
RANKINGS
Oakland
1
San Francisco
15
Seattle
3
Austin
15
San Diego
3
Dallas
25
Orange County
3
Minneapolis
48
San Jose
5
Boston
48
Los Angeles
7
Riverside/San Bernardino
110
Source: Milken Institute, Best Performing Cities Report
OC HIGH-TECH GDP FALLS IN RANKING RA N K I N G S O F H IGH-TE CH GDP O UT PUT IN 2018–2019 F O R O RANGE C O U NTY A N D P E E R RE G ION S METRO REGIONS
RANKINGS
METRO REGIONS
RANKINGS
San Francisco
6
San Jose
72
Seattle
12
Los Angeles
76
Riverside/San Bernardino
26
Oakland
102
Boston
27
Orange County
126
Austin
46
Minneapolis
142
San Diego
69
Dallas
171
Source: Milken Institute, Best Performing Cities Report
85
Overall, Orange County ranked 61st in the 2021 Best Performing Cities report, a drop from its 46th place finish the previous year. While the egi r on does have a significant number of high-tech industries and considerable high-tech employment, ecen r t high-tech job growth as been lackluster. When combined with current affordability issues, which have been making it increasingly difficult for many esi r dents to live and work in the egi r on, this esu r lted in Orange County dropping in the overall rankings.
ORANGE COUNTY RANKS 18TH FOR HIGH-TECH CONCENTRATION R E G I ON A L RA N KIN G S F O R HIGH- T ECH INDUS T RY C O NC ENT R ATIO N FO R ORA N GE COU N TY AND PEER REGIO NS , 2021 METRO REGIONS
RANKINGS
METRO REGIONS
RANKINGS
San Jose
1
Orange County
18
San Francisco
2
Dallas
23
Seattle
3
Minneapolis
51
Austin
9
Boston
54
San Diego
13
Los Angeles
76
Oakland
14
Riverside/San Bernardino
114
Source: Milken Institute, Best Performing Cities Report Data Note: Due to changes in how the scores of regions are presented by the Best Performing Cities Report, this year’s indicators have changed from scores to overall rankings.
86
HOUSING
HOUSING LANDSCAPE
Tracing back its roots as a bedroom community for Los Angeles manufacturing industries, 50 percent of Orange County housing structures are single-detached homes, similar to Santa Clara, San Diego, and Los Angeles counties. San Bernardino and Riverside counties have even higher proportions of single-family structures, while 5an(ranEKUEQJaUUKgnKEanVN[JKgJerRrQRQrVKQnUQHOWNVKHaOKN[UVrWEVWreUtNKMeN due to the strict o z ning regulations and already tight housing density.
SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES DOMINATE IN SOCAL H O U SIN G STRU CTU RE S BY T YPE F O R PEER C ALIF O RNIA REGIO NS, 82 0%0 2 1 78 00 %% 67 00 %% 56 00 %% 45 00 %% 34 00 %% 23 00 %% 12 00 %% 1 00 %% 0%
San Bern ar dino San Bern ar dino
River side River side
Sin gl e Detach ed
Santa Clara Santa Clara
Sin gl e At tached
San Die go San Die go Tw o or Four Units
Orange Orange
Los Angel es Los Angel es
Fiv e+ Unit s
San Franci sco San Franci sco
M obile H omes
Source: State ofglCalifornia, E-5 Population Counties Sin e Detach eDepartment d Sin gof l e Finance, At tached Tw o or and FourHousing Units Estimates Fiv e+ for UniCities, ts M obile and H omthe es State — January 1, 2011-2021. Sacramento, California, May 2021.
Orange County had a homeownership rate of 57 percent in 2019, unchanged from the year before, and below the national (64 percent) yet above the state rate of 55 percent. White and Asian communities in Orange County had the highest rates of homeownership at 65 percent and 63 percent, respectively, while Hispanic or Latino and African American communities had the lowest rates at 38 percent and 34 percent, respectively.
88
OW N E R - A N D R E NTE R -OCCUPI ED RAT ES OF HOMEO W NERSHIP BY M A JO R E TH N IC GR OUPS IN OR ANGE C O U NT Y, 2019 600, 000 527,967 500, 000 35%
Housing Units
400, 000
300, 000
253,981 215,130
200, 000
65%
62%
37%
100, 000 63%
38%
19,785
66%
34%
Whi te
His panic or L atino Owne r-Occu pied
Asi an
African Americ an
Rente r-Occ upied
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table S2502
Building permit issuance in Orange County declined in 2020 by 33 percent to a total of 6,027 building permits. The decline in 2020 is directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic which caused many businesses and construction sites to shut down temporarily in an effort to reduce community transmission. This delay in home building adds to the problem of an already low housing supply in the region, which likely served to further boost home prices. As businesses and industries come back online and begin mitigating pent-up demand, many expect a dramatic resurgence in home building and housing supply.
89
BUILDING PERMITS SEE DECLINE IN 2020 O R AN G E COU N TY BU IL DING PERMIT MO NT HLY T RENDS , 2010– 2020 14, 000 11,523
12, 000 10,771
10,422 10, 000
9,510
9,291
8,989 7,515
8, 000 6,082
6, 000
6,027
4,532 4, 000
3,134
2, 000
0 201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Building Permits Survey
Demonstrating Orange County’s relative density, the region had the second highest housing and population densities at 3,947 and 1,400, respectively, second only to San Francisco County.
ORANGE COUNTY SEES HIGH POPULATION AND HOUSING DENSITY
20, 000 18, 000
17,532
H O USIN G U N IT A N D PO PULAT IO N PER S QUARE MILE IN P E E R C A L IFORN IA COU N TIE S, 2020
16, 000 14, 000
10, 000 8, 000
8,179
12, 000
San Franci sco
Orange
Los Angel es
Populati on Pe r Square Mile
90
Santa Clara
San Die go
River side
36
108
120
0
341
293
788
1,499
527
0 4,1
2, 000
891
749,3
4, 000
2,475
6, 000
San Bern ar dino
Aver age Hous ing Units P er Square M ile
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties and the State — January 1, 2011-2021. Sacramento, California, May 2021.
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Despite the ongoing pandemic and related labor market struggles, Orange County home prices continue to hit new highs — a trend being observed in many high costof-livngegi r onswithmajorjbcentersnearby.omFrJuly2011toJuly201,Orange County’s median home price increased by 97.6 percent to $1,090,000 as of July 2021. Further complicating affodabi r lity in the egi r on, first-time home buyers in Orange County would need a minimum qualifying income of $124,500 to afford an entry-level home priced at $850,00. s of the first quarter of 201, only 34 percent of firsttime home buyers can afford an entry-level home, down from 36 percent in the fourth quarterofTh20. isepr r esentsthelowestfirst-timehomebuyeraffodabi r sility ncethe fourth quarter of 2007. COVID-19 has served to dramatically disrupt the housing sector across the nation. Moratoriums on evictions and paused rent payments have kept many individuals in their homes, while skyrocketing prices supported by low interest rates and supply/ demand imbalances are causing bidding wars with buyers paying well over asking prices. While the housing market is likely to push forward during the popular home buying summer months, many expect the market to cool down once construction inventories return to normal and evictions are allowed to resume.
MEDIAN HOUSING PRICES HIT RECORD HIGH IN ORANGE COUNTY MEDIAN EXISTING SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES PRICES IN ORANGE COUNTY AND CALIFORNIA, JULY 2011 – JULY 2021 $1, 200 ,00 0
$1,090,000
$1, 000 ,00 0 $811,170
$80 0,0 00
$60 0,0 00
$551,510
$40 0,0 00
$20 0,0 00
$297,660
$0 J u l y -11
J u l y -12
J u l y -13
J u l y -14
J u l y -15
California
J u l y -16
J u l y -17
J u l y -18
J u l y -19
J u l y -20
J u l y -21
Orange County
Source: California Association of Realtors, Current Sales & Price Statistics
91
AFFORDABILITY DROPS ALONGSIDE RECORD HOME PRICES R E G ION A L COM PA RISO N O F T HE PERC ENTAGE O F F IRST- TIM E H O ME BU YE RS A BLE TO AF F O RD AN ENT RY- LEVEL HO ME, Q1 2011 – Q 1 20 2 1 100 % 90% 80%
87% 80%
70% 72% 60% 63%
65% 63%
62%
58%
53%
46%
44% 43% 42% 34% 33% 27%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
San Bern ar dino
River side
California
San Die go
Los Angel es
Orange County
Santa Clara
San Franci sco
Q1 2020
Q1 2021
Source: California Association of Realtors, First-Time Home Buyer Affordability Index
With home prices in Orange County reaching record highs and increased wages being largely supported by government aid, all of the occupations now measured in this report failed to meet the necessary eqr ed uir minu qualifying income for a first-time home buyer. This growing mismatch has been tracked now for several years and highlights a growing decline in the proportion of individuals who are able to buy a home in the region. Despite increases in wages experienced across the county, housing prices have increased much quicker, pricing an increasingly large proportion of the population out of the area — a trend which may be accelerating domestic out-migration and hurting future population and labor market growth. Orange County must make concerted efforts to ensure all their residents can afford to both live and work in the region. If these issues are not addressed, young professionals and families will continue to move out of the region for areas with lower housing costs and more housing options.Effectivel,y OrangeCountyisatriskoflosingoneofitsmajorcompetitveadvantages — a well-educated, qualified workfoce r who is able to actively fill lucrative positions of local employers. If the region fails to continually attract, retain, and more importantly, house young families and professionals, it is unlikely to remain an economic engine of Southern California.
92
HOUSING NOW OUT OF REACH FOR MANY OCCUPATIONS MI NI M U M I N COM E N E E DE D T O AF F O RD AN ENT RY- LEVEL HO ME C O MPA R E D TO M E DIA N SA LARIES IN S ELEC T ED O C CUPAT IO NS IN O R A NG E C O U N TY, 1 ST Q U A RTER 2021 Minimum Qualifying Income - $124,500
$33,772
Personal Care Aide Retail Salesperson
$37,766 $46,657
Secretary/Administrative Assistant
$48,742
Machinist
$71,231
Carpenter
$89,966
Biomedical Engineer Computer Programmer
$97,634
Elementary School Teacher
$98,531
Registered Nurse
$117,057
Software Developer
$118,172 $0
$20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000 $140,000
Source: California Association of Realtors, First-Time Home Buyer Affordability Index; California Employment Development Department, Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics Program
LOW-INCOME RESIDENTS STRUGGLE TO REDUCE HOUSING COSTS
0% 0%
Le ss t han Le ss t han $20,000 $20,000
$20 ,00 0 t o $20 ,00 0 t o $34 ,99 9 $34 ,99 9 Le ss T han 20% Le ss T han 20%
$35 ,00 0 t o $35 ,00 0 t o $49 ,99 9 $49 ,99 9 Household Income Household Income 20% to 2 9% 20% to 2 9%
$50 ,00 0 t o $50 ,00 0 t o $74 ,99 9 $74 ,99 9 30% or M ore 30% or M ore
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates
191% 9%
191% 9%
191% 9%
121% 2%
131% 3%
6% 6%
101% 0%
20% 20%
6% 6%
40% 40%
313% 1%
626% 2%
60% 60%
3% 3%
PePre ce rcnetnotfoHf oHuosuesheohld oslds
80% 80%
757% 5%
838% 3%
909% 0%
100 % 100 %
505% 0%
O R A NG E C O U N TY OW N E R-OCC UPIED HO US ING C O S T S AS A PERCENT O F I NC O ME , 2 0 1 9
$75 ,00 0 or M or e $75 ,00 0 or M or e
93
RENTAL AFFORDABILITY
YKcJ cJG JQW•KPI OCTMGc GZRGTKGPEKPI •KIPKECPc •JKHc• FWG cQ cJG RCPFGOKE cJG TGPcCN OCTMGc YC• PQ FKHHGTGPc YJKNG GXKEcKQP OQTCcQTKWO• CNNQYGF C •KIPKECPc RQTcKQPQHcJGRQRWNCcKQPcQTGOCKPKPcJGKTJQOG•cJG•GRTQcGEcKQP•CTGNKMGN[cQGP •QQPtTKIJcCccJGcKOGYJGPOCP[GZRGEcTGPcRTKEG•cQKPETGC•GFTCOCcKECNN[C• YQTMGT•TGcWTPcQcJGKTRNCEG•QHGORNQ[OGPcKPOCbQTEKc[EGPcGT•
In Orange County, the “housing wage” or minimum wage a worker would need to earn in order to afford a median-priced, one-bedroom apartment increased to $36.31 an hour or $75,529 per year. This represents an increase of 5.8 percent over last year’s housing wage. A minimum wage worker would need to work 104 hours a week to afford a one-bedroom apartment, 128 hours a week to afford two bedrooms, and 177 hours per week to afford three bedrooms. While rent in Orange County has been consistently increasing for the past decade, rental costs marked their first decline in the second quarter of 20. Mared r by increased vacancy, the pandemic, and regional labor market exposure to tourism-related sectors, Orange County’s average rent dropped by $27 to $2,066 per month. Prior to the pandemic, rent in the region had largely plateaued due to the construction of new housing supply. Looking forward, rent in Orange County is expected to drop further by 0.5 percent, the smallest drop among 30 metro areas. These rising housing costs, already an issue well before the pandemic, have been dramatically amplified by COVID-19, which wil undoubtedly affect the local,egi r onal, and national housing markets, potentially driving up rental demand, as was the case during the Great Recession.
ORANGE COUNTY RENTALS SEE LARGE INCREASE IN PRICE R E G I ON A L COM PA RISON O F T HE HO URLY WAGE NEEDED T O A FFO R D A O NE -BE DROOM U N IT, 2021
Minn eapoli s Rivers ide/ San Be rnardi no
Austi n
San Diego
Se attl e
$37.00
Los An ge le s
13.6 $
$30.75
$0
$31.58
$10
$23.31
$20
$21.27
$30
$30.87
$40
$56.21
$49.19
$50
$20.27
One-Bedroom Housing Wage
$60
Orange County
Boston
San Jose
San Fran ci sco
Sources: Community Indicators Report analysis of Fair Market Rent data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development using the methodology of the National Low Income Housing Coalition
94
REQUIRED WAGE FOR ONE-BEDROOM JUMPS BY 9.4% H O U R LY WAG E N E E DE D TO AF F O RD A O NE- BEDRO O M UNIT IN O R A NG E C O U N TY, 2 0 1 5 –2 0 2 1 $40
$36.31
$35 $34.33
$31.38
$30 $28.71 $27.62 $25 $24.67
$25.46
$20 201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
202 1
Sources: Community Indicators Report analysis of Fair Market Rent data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development using the methodology of the National Low Income Housing Coalition
AFFORDING MEDIAN RENT REQUIRES 104 MINIMUM WAGE WORK HOURS RE N TA L M A R KE T A FFORDA BILIT Y IN O RANGE C O UNT Y, 2017–2021 FAIR MARKET RENT (MONTHLY)
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
One Bedroom
$1,436
$1,493
$1,632
$1,785
$1,888
Two Bedroom
$1,813
$1,876
$2,037
$2,216
$2,331
Three Bedroom
$2,531
$2,626
$2,862
$3,098
$3,227
Amount a Household with One Minimum Wage Earner Can Afford to Pay in Rent (Monthly)
$546
$572
$624
$676
$728
Number of Hours per Week a Minimum Wage Earner Must Work to Afford a One-Bedroom Apartment
105
104
105
106
104
Sources: Community Indicators Report analysis of Fair Market Rent data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development using the methodology of the National Low Income Housing Coalition
95
Half of the county’s most common occupations — carpenters, machinists, administrative assistants, retail salespersons, and personal care aides — earn less than the required $36.31 per hour to afford a one-bedroom apartment. While individuals in these occupations may seek out shared housing arrangements with roommates, housing price increases have outpaced wage increases and, if not properly addressed, could lead to increased homelessness, especially considering recent housing shifts brought about by COVID-19. While eviction moratoriums cuenr tly protect many enr ters and homeowners, they wil soon expie, r significantly increasing the risk of homelessness for many families in Orange County.
HOUSING WAGE TOO HIGH FOR MANY OC OCCUPATIONS H O U R LY WA GE N E E DE D T O AF F O RD A MEDIAN O NE- BEDRO O M U NIT I N O R A N G E COU N TY ( 2021) CO MPARED T O MEDIAN LO CAL WA GE S I N SE LE CTE D OCCU PATIO NS (1S T QUART ER 2021) PePersonal rsonal CCare are AAide ide
Housing Wage: $36.31
$16.23
Salesperson ReRetail tail Sa les pe rson
$18.15
MMachinist ach inis ts
$23.43
CCarpenter arpent er
$34.25
Secretary/Administrative Sec retar y/AdminAssistant ist rative …
$36.81
EleElectrician ct ricians
$37.83
Biomedical Bio medical EEngineer ngineer
$43.25
CoComputer mputer P rProgrammer ogrammer
$46.94
ReRegistered gist ered NNurse ur se
$56.28
SoSoftware ftware DDeveloper evel oper
$56.81 $0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Sources: Community Indicators Report analysis of Fair Market Rent data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development using the methodology of the National Low Income Housing Coalition (2020 housing wage); California Employment Development Department Occupational Employment Statistics (1st Quarter 2020)
96
WITH CURRENT AFFORDABILITY RATES, RENTERS SHOULD BRACE FOR IMPACTS FROM COVID-19 O R A NG E C O U N TY W ORK HO URS REQUIRED BY H O U S I N G SIZ E FOR M IN IM U M WAGE WO RK ERS , 2021 250 Minimum Wage = $14.00/Hour 204 200 177
Work Hours
150
128 104
92
100
50
0 Zer o- Bedroom
One- Bedroom
Tw o- Bedroom
Th ree- Bedroom
Four- Bedroom
Sources: Community Indicators Report analysis of Fair Market Rent data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development using the methodology of the National Low Income Housing Coalition
Considering the comparatively high costof-living in the county, asignicantportion of low-income renters spend over 30 percent of their incomes on housing needs. As a result, these communities are less capable of saving for bigitem expenses, such as home or car purchases. This further inhibits their ability to build equity or generational wealth and limits their employment opportunities to areas in their proximity, or areas which are accessible via public transportation.
LOW-INCOME RENTERS SPEND DISPROPORTIONATELY MORE ON HOUSING
80%
0%
19%
19%
42%
31%
$20 ,00 0 t o $35 ,00 0 t o $50 ,00 0 t o $34 ,99 9 $35,000 to $4$94,999,999 9 $50,000 to $7$47,949,999 9
$20,000 to $34,999
40%
19%
19% 4%
24%
12%
13% 8%
2%
6%
10% 2%
Le ss t han $20,000
Less t han $20,000
2%
0%
6%
3%
20%
20%
7%
40%
40%
0%
60%
50%
62%
75%
72%
60%
91%
Percent of Households
100 % Percent of Households
96%
80% 92%
120 %
83%
90%
O R A NG E C OU N TY RE N TE R-OC CUPIED HO US ING 100 %A S A P E RCE N T OF IN CO ME, 2019 C O S TS
$75 ,00 0 or M or e $75,000 or Mor e
ulsdeh ncome HousH eo ho InoclodmIe Le ss T 0n%20% 20%2t0o%2t9o%2 9% 30% or M ore LehsasnT2 ha
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimate, Table B25106
97
HOUSING SECURITY As of 2021, Orange County has approximately 2,441 people living in sheltered homeless arrangements, of which 43 percent are adults with children, while only 1 percent are children without adults. From 2020 to 2021, the number of homeless adults declined by 548 people, or 28 percent, while the number of homeless adults with children declined by only 40 people, or 3.7 percent, during the same time period. The number of sheltered homeless children without anadultactuallyincreasedfromjust7peoplein20to19peoplein201. White communities represent 77 percent of homeless sheltered people in 2021, an increase from 73 percent in 2020. The next highest rates of homelessness were endured by African Americans (12 percent) and Multiple Races (4 percent). Overall, African American and White communities experience homelessness at much higher rates than other ethnicities throughout the county.
P R O P ORTION OF SH E LT ERED PO INT- IN- T IME HO MELES S BY R A CE / E T H NICITY IN ORA N GE C O UNT Y, 2021 1%
3%
12%
3%
1%
4% 4% 3% 3% 45%
12% 55%
His panic or L atino
77%
Whit e Whit e Amer icanAIm nd eiraicnao nrInAdl a i asnkaoN rA atliavseka Nati ve Mul ti pl e M Raucle tispl e Races
Afr ican AAmfreicriacnanAmeri can Asian Asian Nati ve HN aw aa tiivi a enHoarwPaaiicainficoIrslPaancdi feicr Islander
Source: Orange County 2-1-1, 2021 Sheltered Point in Time Count
98
77%
Not His pan ic or L at ino
onical Chr Homelly essIndividualssawthemostsignificanimprt ovemhomelenin essn t ess rates from 2020 to 2021, with their population shrinking from 825 to 431, a decline of 48 percent. While homelessness among Youths and Seniors was also reduced, the number of homeless Veterans and Domestic Violence survivors increased by 24.6 percent and 10.3 percent espect r ivel. y Major disabilites stil impacting homeless populations included Mental Health Disability, Physical Disability, and Substance Abuse Disability.
S HE LTE R E D H OM E LE SS COU NT S BY S PEC IAL PO PULAT IO NS I N O R9A 00 N G E COU N TY, 2 0 2 1 900 800 Homeless Counts
Homeless Counts
700 600 500 400 300 200 100
825
800
825
700 600
556 556
500
431 431
400
322
300
322525
200 100
99
130 99 162 130
162
255
151 151
127
127
295
295
216815
261 288
288
185
102
102
0 Vete rans
0
Vete rans
Yout h Yout h
Chr on ically Sen ior s Hh orm elie C on cassllyI ndividuals Sen ior s Homele ss I ndividuals 201 9
202 0
Dome stic Violen ce Dome stic Violen ce
202 1
201 9 202 0 202 1 Source: Orange County 2-1-1, 2021 Sheltered Point in Time Count
D I SA B I L I TI E S RE P ORTE D BY P ERS O NS S HELT ERED IN O R A N G E C OU N TY, 2 0 2 1 400 350
334 308
300
297
250 200 150 100 57 50 12 0 M ental Health and Disabilit y
Subs tance Abus e Disabilit y
Ph ysi cal Disabilit y
Source: Orange County 2-1-1, 2021 Sheltered Point in Time Count
Development al Disabilit y
HI V/AI DS
99
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INCOME
HOUSEHOLD INCOME The median household income in Orange County grew by a staggering $6,175 from 2018 to 2019, representing an increase of 6.9 percent, and reached $95,934 in 2019. Orange County’s median household income was $30,222, or 46 percent, higher than the national average ($65,712) and $15,494, or 19.3 percent, higher than the state average ($80,440) in 2019.
The percentage of Orange County households in the “very high” income category increased by 2 percent from 2018 to 2019 while the percent of households in the “low” income category declined by 2 percent, largely due to the egi r on’s stongr and diversified industry base and business environment. Overall, 22 percent of Orange County households earned less than $45,000 in 2019 while 4.1 percent (42,330 households) earned less than $10,000. The percentage of households earning $200,000 or more increased from 15.3 percent in 2018 to 17 percent in 2019, representing 177,477 households.
Percentage of Orange County residents living in poverty
10.9%
Percentage of Orange County children living in poverty
Working poor: percentage of residents living in poverty who work full-time
14.2%
or part-time
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates (Table S1701)
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3.4%
37.9%
MORE OC HOUSEHOLDS JOIN “VERY HIGH” INCOME CATEGORY DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSEHOLDS BY MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME, OR A N G E C OU N TY, CA LIFORN IA, AND T HE UNIT ED S TAT ES , 2019
40% 35%
31%
29%
30% 25% 20%
17%
15%
11%
10% 5%
7% 4%
0% Ver y Low (Less than $10,000)
Lo w ($10,000-$24,999)
Lo w- Moderat e ($25,000-$44,999)
Unit ed St at es
Mo derate High Ver y Hi gh ($45,000-$99,000) ($100,000-$199,999) ($200,000 or mor e)
California
Orange County
Number of Orange County households in the “Very Low” income group in 2019:
Approximate 2019 U.S. poverty threshold for a 4-person household:
$25,926
of poverty, or roughly $48,000 for a 4-person household.
2019 median household income in Orange County:
Minimum qualifying income for a first-time homebuyer in Orange County in 2017:
The number of Orange County households grew 5% between 2010 and 2018, while the number of households in the “Very High” group grew
43,771
$95,934 $124,500
Eligibility for many support services begins at
<185%
60%
.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates (Table B19001), 20010 through 2019; U.S. Census Bureau, Poverty Thresholds for 2019; California Association of Realtors, First-Time Buyer Housing Affordability Index
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While many expected reductions in personal and household incomes resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent government mandates shutting down business operations across the nation, federal and state aid in the form of stimulus and extended unemploymentbenefits have buoyed personal and household incomes. This has brought about a number of discussions regarding the current level of compensation for workers being considerably too low. As such, and in the face ofincreasinginflation rates, it is imperative that employers across the nation understand that compensation rates must improve if the nation is to experience a continued economic recovery.
OC MEDIAN INCOMES BOUNCE 7 PERCENT M E DIA N HO US EHO LD INCO ME (INF LAT IO N ADJ U STE D TO 2 0 1 9 DO LLARS ), O RANGE C O UNT Y, C ALIFO R NIA , A N D U NIT ED S TAT ES $10 0,0 00
$95,934
$82,110
$80,440
$80 ,00 0 $67,332
$65,712
$60 ,00 0 $57,380 $40 ,00 0
$20 ,00 0
$0 200 9
201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
Orange County
201 4
201 5
California
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
Unit ed St at es
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table B19013 (http:// factfinder.census.gov/); U.S. Inflation Calculator, reporting Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) data provided by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (www.usinflationcalculator.com)
HIGH COS T MARK ET S S EE A DEC LINE IN C O ST O F LIV IN G While cost of living in Orange County is 87 percent higher than the national average, it did decline by 4 points compared to the previous year. Several major markets experienced similar declines, especially San Jose and San Francisco. Orange County’s housing costs, which are 374 percent higher than the national average, continue to drive its high cost of living. The cost of living takes housing, groceries, health, utilities, transportation, and miscellaneous expenses into account; while Orange County outpaced the nation in nearly all metrics, the costs for Health (95.9) and Utilities (98.3) were both below the national averages. 300 250
269.30
National Average = 100
200 150 100
119.30
106.50
101.60
160.10
133.10
162.40
187.10
173.30
172.30
214.50
50
Fr an c
isc
o
e Jo s
Sa n
Sa n
nt y Co u e
O ra ng
Lo s
An
ge le
s
at t le Se
Bo st on
Sa n
De i
go
no Be r
Sa n e/ rs id Ri ve
104
na rd i
st in Au
ap ol is ne
M in
D
al la s
0
FAMILY FINANCIAL STABILITY Family Financial Stability Continues to Improve into 2019 The 2019 Family Financial Stability Index for Orange County (FFSI-OC) showed that 18 percent of neighborhods had high levels of family financial instability (scoes r of 1, 2, 3, and 4 out of a maximu scoer of 10). The FSI-OC measues r the financial stability of families with children under 18 by Orange County neighborhood and is a composite of three metrics: family income, employment status, and the proportion of household income spent on rent. FFSI-OC tracking began in 2012, when 39 percent of neighborhoods received “unstable” FFSI-OC scores of 4 or less. While this level of instability ose r to include 41 percent of neighborhods in 2013, family financial stability has steadily improved each year between 2013 and 2019. The improvement inoverallfinancialstabilityscoes r since2012appearstobedrivenby: • A substantial increase in employment levels; • Fewer families with very low income; and • A modest easing of rent burden. Twocities(SantanaandStanton)andonemajorunicorporatedarea(MidwayCity) had the highest concentrations of family financial instability with scoes r of 4 on the 2019 FFSI-OC. No city or unincorporated area scored below a 4 in 2019. FFSI-OC results for 2020, which will show the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, will be available in January 2022.
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MAJORITY OF NEIGHBORHOODS MODERATELY STABLE OR STABLE FFSI -OC SCORE S: P E RCENT (AND C O UNT ) O F O RANGE C O U NTY 19% N E I GHBORH OODS, 2 0 1 9 (103)
17% (96)
15% (82) 11% (60)
10% (55)
10% (57)
10% (57)
9
10
5% (27) 2% (11)
1% (6) 1
2
3
4
5
FFSI-OC Score
1
6
2
3
Least Stable
4
Unstable
7
5
6
Moderately Stable
7
8
8
Stable
9
10
Most Stable
Note: Percentages have been rounded. The number of neighborhoods falling within each FFSI-OC index score is provided in the parentheses following the percentage. Source: Parsons Consulting, Inc. for Orange County United Way
FAMILY FINANCIAL STABILITY INCREASES TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE TRACKING BEGAN
28% 29% 21% 22% 20% 22% 24% 23%
15% 13% 15% 17% 18% 21% 20% 21%
12% 13% 14% 9% 7% 4% 3% 3%
15%
23% 25% 23% 22% 21%
27% 28%
26% 24% 28% 27% 28% 30% 29% 32%
P E R C E N TA G E OF ORA NGE C O UNT Y NEIGHBO RHO O DS BY F FSI- O C SC O R E , 2 0 1 2 –2 0 1 9
1-2
3-4
5-6
7-8
9-10
FFSI Score 2012
106
2013
2014
2015
Source: Parsons Consulting, Inc. for Orange County United Way
2016
2017
2018
2019
18 PERCENT OF NEIGHBORHOODS HAVE LOW LEVELS OF FAMILY FINANCIAL Family Financial Stability Index STABILITY
Orange County, 2019
FAPERCENT M I LY F IOF N AN CIA L STA BILITY – OOF RANGE O UNT Y:STABILITY 18 NEIGHBORHOODS HAVE INDEX LOW LEVELS FAMILY C FINANCIAL Family Financial Stability Index – Orange County: 2019 Neighborhood-Level Results 20 1 9 N E I G H BORH OOD-LE V E L R ES ULT S La Habra
U V
Brea
142
Fullerton
Placentia
U V
Buena Park
57
La Palma
Anaheim
Los Alamitos Seal Beach
U V Orange
U V 39
Westminster Huntington Beach
Yorba Linda
91
Cypress Stanton
±
U V
90
Villa Park
Garden Grove
U V
Santa Ana
22
U V
Fountain Valley
Tustin
55
U V 261
U V 241
§ ¨ ¦ 405
Irvine
Costa Mesa
Lake Forest
§ ¨ ¦ U V 5
U V 1
Newport Beach
Mission Viejo
133
U V
Laguna Woods
73
Aliso Viejo
Rancho Santa Margarita
Laguna Hills Laguna Niguel
Laguna Beach
U V 74
San Juan Capistrano Dana Point
San Clemente
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Redordarkorangeareasonthemapepr r esentneighborhodswithloevelsoffamilyfinancial 0 Red or 4Families 8 withareas 16 Milesrepresent dark orange on the neighborhoods withlikely low levels of a low income (less stability. children in map these neighborhoods are more to have Missing Data financial of stability. Families with children in these neighborhoods more thanfamily 185 percent the poverty level), spend 50 percent or more ofare household income on rent, likely to have a low income (less than 185 percent of the poverty level), spend 50 and/or have one or more unemployed adults seeking employment. Green areas, on the other percent or more of household income on rent, and/or have one or more unemployed hand, have a higher proportion f familes that are financially stable. Gray hatch marked areas adults seeking employment. Green areas, on the other hand, have a higher represent neighborhoods with data available due to small numbers families with children in proportion of families that areno financially stable. Gray hatch marked areasof represent those neighborhoods thusavailable data has been suppressed privacy. neighborhoods withand no data due to small numbers to of protect families with children in those neighborhoods and thus data has been suppressed to protect privacy.
Family Financial Stability Index – Orange County Summary Results 2019
4
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Lack of quality child care affects all of us In Orange County, the impact of child care related challenges — to the overall economy, families and employers — is significant.
Orange County Impacts
$4.3 BILLION
lost productivity and wages annually
$372 MILLION
lost tax revenue annually
67,000
lost jobs annually due to disruptions or gaps in child care
We need your help. We’re looking for leaders to help formulate local recommendations and a plan of action to solve our child care crisis. 108
Learn more at first5oc.org/childcare
EDUCATION
KINDERGARTEN READINESS Signfican i Raci t alspar iD gnom yti der niK garent Readiess n OCni drlihC en Orange County’s Early Development Index (EDI) measures the percentage of children are read r inder ar en defined as ein n rac in all fi e Id sical eal and ell ein c nica i n s ills and eneral n social competence, emotional maturity, and language and cognitive development. Kindergarten readiness serves as a predictor of future performance, as it provides a strong foundation for academic and career growth.
It is imperative that all children are provided the necessary tools to develop the skills needed to ensure future success, and yet there is a disparity in developmental readiness among Orange County’s children. This disparity is exemplified in the chart bel,ow where Latino students are estimated to be 27 percent less likely to be ready for kindergarten than non-Latino children; Asian students, on the other hand, are 26 percent more likely to be kindergarten ready than nonAsian children. Acknowledging, understanding, and putting policies in place to understand and edu r cetheeqgap uity amongchildrenwouldben only t efitthelivesofthesechildren,bual t so helpguaranteethatOrangeetCountyr ainsastong, r diversifiedlabormarket.
C H I L DRE N ’ S LIKE LIH OOD O F BEING READY F O R K INDERGART E N B Y R A C E A N D E TH N ICITY, 2019 Less Likely
More Likely
Asian
26%
Pacific Islander
21%
White
21% 12%
Multiracial Native American
4%
Other
4%
Black Latino
8% 27%
Source: First 5 Orange County, Early Development Index, Equity Ratio
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ain led
When crafting policies or strategies aimed at supporting early learning and child development, school districts and kindergarten teachers must consider more equitable and inclusive solutions to support students of every background. This will ensure all groups see meaningful improvements in early childhood health and development. In order to do so, it is important to understand where children are in their development and what tools, or skills, would allow them to close those gaps. Looking at the chart below, Asian students were less likely to be vulnerable in any of the EDI domains compared to non-Asian students; White students also were less likely to be vulnerable compared to non-White students. Reducing the vulnerability of Latino, Black, and Native American students and increasing the equitable outcomes for all Orange County children would not only improve the quality of life for these families, but for all families in the region.
C H I L D R E N ’S LIKE LIHOOD OF BEING VULNERABLE O N T HE EDI, B Y R A C E A ND E THN ICITY A N D DEVELO PMENTAL DO MAIN, 2019 Less Likely
More Likely
Asian Black Latino Native American Other Pacific Islander
Domains l Physical Health & Well-Being l Social Competence l Emotional Maturity l Language & Cognitive Development l Communication Skills & General Knowledge
Two or More White vs. Rest of Population Source: First 5 Orange County, Early Development Index, Equity Ratio
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Noticeable Difference in Kindergarten Readiness Between North and South OC Overall, an estimated 52.9 percent of Orange County children were considered ready for kindergarten in 2019. In addition, 63.9 percent of Asian children were considered ready compared to only 44.5 percent of Latino children.
P E R C E N TA G E OF STU DENT S READY F O R KINDERGART EN, EA R LY DE VE LOP M E N T IN DE X, 2019
Note: The EDI assists stakeholders in identifying how children are faring developmentally as they enter school. Therefore, data in this map is based on where children live rather than the school (and district) where their data is collected. Source: First 5 Orange County, Early Development Index, Equity Ratio
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C H I L DR E N ’S LIKE LIH OOD OF BEING S O CIALLY AN D E M O T I ON A LLY V U LN E RA BLE BY RAC E AND ET H NI C I T Y, 2 0 1 9 Less Likely Asian
31%
White
19%
Pacific Islander
17%
Two or More Other Native American
More Likely
15% 4% 16%
Latino
40%
Black
42%
Source: First 5 Orange County, Early Development Index, Equity Ratio
SOCIALEMOTIONAL DEVELOPMENT Approximately 9.7 percent of Orange County kindergarteners in 2019 were considered vulnerable in their social-emotional development on the EDI. However, Black and Latino kindergarteners were 42 percent and 40 percent more likely to be vulnerable, respectively, while other groups are less likely to be considered vulnerable.
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HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION RATE In the 2019/20 academic year, 90.4 percent of students who entered 9th grade in 2016 graduated on time four years later, an improvement of 0.7 percentage points compared to the prior year. When compared to the statewide average, Orange County outperformed the state’s graduation rate of 84.3 percent by more than 6 percentage points. In Orange County, Asian students posted the highest graduation rates once again at 94.7 percent, followed by White students (92.8 percent), ‘Other’ ethnicities (90.7 percent) and Latino students (87.5 percent). Despite posting the highest overall graduate rate, the Asian student cohort also posted the only year-over-year decline in graduation rates, falling from 94.9 percent to 94.7 percent. The ‘Other’ student cohort posted the largest improvement over the past year with graduation rates increasing from 87.3 percent to 90.7 percent.
ASIAN STUDENT COHORTS SEE SMALL DECLINE IN GRADUATION RATES G R A D U ATION RATE 2 0 1 7 /1 8 -2 0 1 9 /2 0
BY
RACE/ET HNIC IT Y
IN
O RANGE
COU NTY,
100 %
80%
90.4%
89.7% 84.5%
89.2% 83.0%
84.3%
60% 94.5% 92.4% 40%
86.0% 85.3%
94.9% 92.4%
87.3% 86.1%
94.7% 92.8% 90.7% 87.5%
20%
0% 201 7/18 Asi an
Whi te
201 8/19 Othe r
His panic or L atino
201 9/20 Orange County
California
Source: California Department of Education, DataQuest
Laguna Beach Unified overtok Los lamitos Unified for the Orange County schol district with the highest graduation rate at 98.4 percent in 2019/20 while Fullerton Joint Union High egi r stered the lowest rate at 88 percent. Laguna Beach Unified, Placentia-Yorba Linda Unified, and Capistrano Unified egi r stered dropout rates of 0.4 percent, 1.2 percent, and 1.6 percent, respectively. At the county-level, the overall dropout rate declined from 4.6 percent in 2018/19 to 4.4 percent in 2019/20.
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LAGUNA BEACH UNIFIED SEES HIGHEST GRADUATION RATE H I G H SC H O OL STU DE N T OU TCO MES BY O RANGE CO UNT Y S C HO O L DI S T R I C T, 2 0 1 9 /2 0 Lagun a Beach Unified
0.4%
98.4%
Los Alamitos Unifie d Capistrano Unified
1.7%
97.2%
1.6%
95.9%
Pl ac entia-Yorba Linda Unified
95.2%
Ir vine Unified
94.7%
Tu sti n Uni fi ed
94.5%
2.9%
Garden Grove Unified
94.0%
3.5%
Hu ntington Beach Union High
93.9%
1.9%
1.2% 2.4%
Orange Unified
93.2%
5.1%
Saddleback Val ley Unified
92.9%
3.5%
Anaheim Union High
92.3%
3.2%
Orange County Average
91.2%
4.4%
Santa Ana Unified
2.7%
90.6%
Brea-Olinda Unified
88.6%
9.2%
Newport-Mesa Unified
88.5%
7.4%
Ful lerton Joint Union High
10.0%
88.0%
0% Graduation Rat e
50% Dropout Rate
St ill Enr oll ed
100 % Othe r C omplet es or Trans fers
Source: California Department of Education, DataQuest
Resilience
An Le had typical teen worries about what to do with her life. At the nationally-ranked College of Business and Economics at Cal State Fullerton, she discovered her love for accounting and engaged in real-world professional opportunities like VITA (Volunteer Income Tax Assistance), providing free tax preparation to low-income individuals. An has now graduated, joining more than 115,000 Titan alumni in Orange County who are powering and leading our business community. Learn more about An’s story at: campaign.fullerton.edu/resilience.
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The percentage point gap between the graduation rate of students who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and those who are not (86.9 percent and 95.1 percent, respectively) totaled 8.2, a continued improvement since 2016/17 when the point gap measured 10.7.
ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT GAP BETWEEN SOCIOECONOMIC GROUPS CONTINUES TO SHRINK FO U R-YE A R A DJU STE D CO HO RT GRADUAT IO N RAT E BY SO C IOE CON OM IC STATUS , 2016/17–2019/20 100 % Point Gap: 8.2
Point Gap: 9.8
Point Gap: 10.1
Point Gap: 10.7 80%
60% 94.9%
94.7% 40%
84.0%
95.3% 84.8%
85.5%
95.1%
86.9%
20%
0% 201 6/17
201 7/18
Not Socioeconomically Di sadvantaged
201 8/19
201 9/20
Socioeconomically Disadvant aged
Source: California Department of Education, DataQuest
Data Notes: The graduation rate measures the percentage of students who receive a diploma in four years.Duech to angesmetin hodology,fo-year ur adjustedcogrhort aduatrat ion edata are only available for the 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, and 2019/20 school years. Data are for non-charter schools only, with the exception of the analysis by socio-economic status,whichincludesalsch l ols.“sian”includessian,PacificIslander,andFilpino. “Other” includes Native American/Alaskan Native, African American, two or more races, or not reported. A student is considered socioeconomically disadvantaged if both parents have not received a high school diploma, the student is eligible for Free or Reduced-Price Meals, or the student is a migrant, homeless, or foster youth.
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2020 SEES DECLINE IN NUMBER OF HEALTH-RELATED DEGREES S T E M - R E L AT E D BA CHE LOR’ S D EGREES C O NFE R R E D AT ORA N GE COU NT Y CO LLEGES AND UN I VE R SI TI E S, 2 0 1 0 –2 0 2 0 350 0 300 0 2,752 250 0 200 0 150 0
1,607
1,573 1,302 1,292
1,223 100 0 664 500 644 0
388 360
232 142
201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
He alt h Profes sions
Enginee ring
Computer and Information Sci ences
Biological and Biomedical Scie nces
Ph ysi cal Sc ience s
M at hematics and Stat isti cs
201 9
202 0
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International
S T E M - R E L AT E D GRA DU ATE DE GREES CO NF ERRED AT O R A NG E COU N TY COLLE G ES AND UN I VE R SI TI E S, 2 0 1 0 –2 0 2 0 250 0
200 0 1,740 150 0
1,334
100 0 708 500
291 217 146 136
365 316 107 0 50 201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
He alt h Profes sions
Enginee ring
Computer and Information Sci ences
Biological and Biomedical Scie nces
Ph ysi cal Sc ience s
M at hematics and Stat isti cs
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International
201 9
202 0
STEMRELATED DEGREES Orange County colleges and universities conferred a total of 14,448 STEMrelated bachelor’s, master’s, and doctorate degrees in 2020, a decline of less than 0.1 percent from the previous year. The number of total (STEM and nonSTEM) degrees declined by 4.1 percent, indicating that students in STEM-related eldswerelessaffectedby the pandemic. The number of STEM-related bachelor’s degrees increased by 3.4 percent to 7,667 in 2020, while the number of STEMrelated graduate degrees declined by 8.9 percent to 3,238, led primarily by declines in Health Profession and Computer and Information Sciences. TheonlySTEMeldtosee an increase in the number of graduate degrees was Mathematics and Statistics, which saw 66 more degrees in 2020 than in 2019. Thisreectsalongerterm trend. From 2010 to 2020, the number of Mathematics and Statistics degrees (undergraduate and graduate combined) grew by 215 percent, morethananyothereld, followed by Engineering (126 percent) and Computer and Information Sciences 117 (63 percent).
DEGREES GRANTED IN 2020 DECLINE DUE TO COVID-19 STE M-RE LATE D DE G RE ES AS A PRO PO RT IO N O F T O TAL DEGR E E S G R A NTE D IN ORA N G E C O UNT Y, 2010–2020 40
45.0%
35
40.0% 35.0%
30
30.0%
In Thousands
25
25.0% 20 20.0% 15
15.0%
10
10.0%
5
5.0%
0
0.0% 2010
2011
2012
STEM- Rel at ed Degrees Granted
2013
2014
2015
Al l Degr ees Gr anted
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Percent age o f All Degrees Granted t hat are STEM-R el at ed
Source: Economic Modeling Specialists International
Data Notes: “STEM” degrees are those granted in the fields of science, technolgy, engineering, and mathematics. Data are inclusive of bachelor’s, master’s, and doctorate degrees granted at public,private,andfo-prr ofit4-yeardegreegrantinginstituonsOrin angeDat . County aeflect r degrees granted in a given school year, where 2019 represents degrees granted in the 2018/19 school year, for example. In the 2020 iteration of the National Center for Education Statistic’s Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), the Classification of Instructional Programs(CIP)underwentsignificanevtr isionswhichalteredhistoricaldatapointspublishedin prior versions of Orange County Community Indicators.
118
HEALTH
HEALTH CARE ACCESS The percentage of Orange County residents lacking health insurance increased from 7 percent in 2018 to 7.7 percent in 2019 to fall in line with the state average of 7.7 percent. National uninsured rates, on the other hand, increased from 8.9 percent to 9.2 percent over the same time period. Orange County had California’s third lowest uninsured rate, behind San Francisco County (3.8 percent) and Santa Clara County (4.6 percent), but ahead of San Diego County (8.0 percent) and Riverside County (8.7 percent).
UNINSURED RATES CLIMB SLIGHTLY IN 2019 U N I NSU RE D ( A LL A G E S ) IN O RANGE C O UNT Y, CALIF O RNIA , A ND U N I T E D STATE S, 2 0 0 9 –2019 25%
20% 17.8%
18.0%
15%
17.3%
17.2%
16.9%
11.9%
10%
9.1% 5%
7.2%
7.4%
7.0%
201 6
201 7
201 8
7.7%
0% 200 9
201 0
201 1
201 2 Unit ed St at es
201 3
201 4 California
201 5
Orange County
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table S2701
120
201 9
UN I NSU R E D ( A LL A G E S) IN ORANGE CO UNT Y AND PEE R R E G I O N S, 2 0 1 9 9.9%
10%
9.1%
8.7% 8.0%
%7.
8%
6% 4.6% 3.8%
4%
2%
0% San Franci sco Count y
Santa Clara Count y
Orange County
San Die go Count y
River side Count y
San Bern ar dino Los Angel es Count y Count y
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table S2701
MEDI-CAL MEMBERSHIP SEES ENROLLMENT BUMP IN 2020
774,722
774,620
745,796
201 2
736,467
385,564
201 1
765,262
379,529
359,788
600 ,00 0
201 8
201 9
202 0
451,793
609,542
900 ,00 0
745,509
CALOPTIMA MEDI-CAL MEMBERSHIP IN ORANGE COUNTY, 2010–2020
Over the past year, Medi-Cal membership through CalOptima increased by nearly 10,000 members, or by 1.3 percent, reaching a total of 745,796 in 2020. This increase was primarily led by the 19 to 40 year age group, which saw enrollment increase by 5.6 percent, followed by the 41 to 64 year and 65+ year age groups, which both saw increases of 1.6 percent. The 0 to 5 and 6 to 18 age groups, on the other hand, saw enrollment declines of 3.9 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively.
300 ,00 0
0 201 0
Age 0-5
201 3 Age 6-18
201 4
201 5
Age 19-4 0
201 6 Age 41-6 4
201 7
Age 65+
Source: CalOptima
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In 2019, insurance coverage in Orange County for residents making under $25K and making between $25K and $49K improved by 2.2 and 0.9 percentage points, respectively. Young Adults aged 18–34 and Older Adults aged 65+ also saw improvements in insurance coverage by 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively. All other groups highlighted in the chart below saw insurance coverage decline, with the most significant change occuring for esi r dents making between $75K and $99K, who saw a decline of 4.1 percentage points.
INSURANCE COVERAGE FOR LOWER-INCOME SEGMENTS IMPROVES; WORSENS FOR NEARLY ALL OTHER GROUPS
B y R a ce/ E thni c i ty
U N I NSU RE D IN ORA N GE CO UNT Y BY RAC E/ET HNICIT Y, INCO M E , E D U CATION , A N D A G E , 2018 AND 2019 W hi te
4.1%
A si a n
5.3%
L a ti no
13.7%
By Race/Ethnicity
U nd er $25K
9.1%
B y In co me
$25K - $49K White
4.1%
Asian
10.2%
5.3%
$50K - $74K
11.6%
Latino
13.7%
$75K - $99K
Under $25K $25K-$49K
B y E du ca ti o n
By Income By Education
9.1%
$100 K a nd O v er
5.0%
10.2%
$50K-$74K L ess t ha n HS Gr a d
11.6%
$75K-$99K
11.7%
HS Gr a d o r G E D
$100K and Over
5.0%
So me Co l le ge o r As soc i a te's
Yo ung Chi l dr en (und er 6)
12.4% 7.4%
3.0%
Bachelor's or Higher
3.8%
Chi l d ren & You th (6- 17)
Young Children (under 6) B y Ag e
3.0%
Yo ung Adul t s (18- 24) Children & Youth (6-17)
4.4% 10.4%
4.4%
Young Adults (18-24) Ad ul ts (25 -64)
10.4%10.7%
Adults (25-64)
Older Adults (65+)
12.4%
19.9%
3.8%
Some College or Associate's
Ol d er Ad ul ts (65+ )
19.9%
7.4%
Less than HS Grad
B a cheor l o r'GED s o r H i gher HS Grad
By Age
11.7%
10.7%
1.0%
1.0% 0% 0%
5%
5%
10% 2 01 8
1 0%
15%
1 5%
2018 2019 2 01 9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates, Table S2701
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20%
2 0%
25%
2 5%
30%
35%
CHRONIC DISEASE With COVID-19 posing a greater risk to individuals with existing medical conditions, a renewed focus was placed on improving the health of residents across the nation. Most notable are four behaviors which heavily contribute to illness and early death: sedentary lifestyles, poor nutrition, tobacco use, and excessive alcohol consumption. In Orange County, death rates due to diabetes and stroke declined by 0.2 and 2.1 points, respectively, from 2018 to 2019, while deaths related to heart disease and asthma increased by 1.7 and 0.1 points, respectively. While the prevalence of high blood pressure remained constant at 26.8 percent, prevalence rates for diabetes declined by 0.2 percentage points and increased by 0.5 for heart disease. Theprevalenceratefoesi r dentswithasthmaincreasedthemost,jumping from 11.8 percent to 15.4 percent from 2018 to 2019. Despite declining COVID-19 cases across the county, state, and nation, it is imperative that continued focus be placed on better supporting individuals with pre-existing conditions. Ensuring these individuals have access to appropriate healthcare options will help maintain the region’s already high quality of life.
Heart Disease and Asthma Deaths Increase; Diabetes and Stroke Deaths Decline DIABETES
DI A B E T E S P RE VA LE N CE A N D DEAT H RAT E IN O R A NG E C O U N TY, 2 0 1 4 –2 0 1 9 10%
15 14.3 13.9 7.1%
Deaths per 100,000
Percent with Diabetes
7.7%
5%
0%
The rate of adults with diabetes declined by 0.2 percentage points to 7.1 percent in 2019, while the death rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 13.9 percent. This is the lowest prevalence rate measured over the past six years.
10 14 20
15 20
16 20
Pr evalance
17 20
18 20
19 20
Death Rate
Sources: California Health Interview Survey; California Department of Public Health, County Health Status Profiles
123
10%
150
7.1% 5.6% 5%
100 91.7 77.2
0%
Deaths per 100,000
The percent of Orange County residents with heart disease increased from 6.6 percent in 2018 to 7.1 percent in 2019, while the death rate increased from 75.5 to 77.2 during the same time period.
HE A RT DIS EAS E PREVALENC E AND DEAT H RAT E IN ORA N GE C O UNT Y, 2014–2019
Percent with Heart Disease
HEART DISEASE
50 14 20
15 20
16 20
Pr evalance
17 20
18 20
19 20
Death Rate
Sources: California Health Interview Survey; California Department of Public Health, County Health Status Profiles
30%
45
10%
150 26.8%
26.4%
35.9 7.1%
33.9 20% 5.6%
30
5%
100 91.7 77.2
10% 0%
144 201 20
155 201 20
166 201 20
Pr evalance
177 201 20
188 210 20
9 91 210 20
ea erer10 Age-AdjustedDD etahtshspp 10 0,00,0 00 00
While the prevalence of high blood pressure or strokes in Orange County remained steady at 26.8 percent in 2019, the death rate dropped byasignificant2.1 points to 35.9 in 2019.
HIGH BLO O D PRES S URE PREVALENCE AND S T R O KE DE ATH RAT E IN O RANGE CO UNT Y, 2014–2019
igisheB PP ee rcrece nn t twtihthatHheaasrtHD asloeod Pressure
HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE/ STROKE
15 50
Death Rate
Sources: California Health Interview Survey; California Department of Public Health, County Health Status Profiles
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ASTHMA/ CHRONIC LOWER RESPIRATORY DISEASE
AS TH MA P RE VA LE N CE A N D CHRO NIC LO WER RE SP I R AT O RY DISE A SE DE ATH RAT E IN O RANGE C O U NTY, 2 01 4 –2 0 1 9 20%
40
15.4%
15%
30
10%
26.5
28.6
20 5%
0%
Deaths per 100,000
Percent with Asthma
12.5%
10 14 20
15 20
16 20
Pr evalance
17 20
18 20
19 20
Death Rate
Sources: California Health Interview Survey; California Department of Public Health, County Health Status Profiles
15.4 percent of Orange County residents had asthma in 2019, a significantincrease from 11.8 percent in 2018. The death rate increased slightly by only 0.1 points to 26.5 in 2019. The increase in asthma prevalence is especially worrying considering the possibility of chronic lung damage from COVID-19.
Data Notes: Prevalence and death data eflect r olingr (overlapping) eethr year averages. For example, “2019” is an average of 2017, 2018, and 2019 data, and “2018” is an average of 2016, 2017, and 2018 data. The death data shown are age-adjusted rates, which coolsntr for egional variability in age composition.
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MENTAL HEALTH AND SUBSTANCE USE Orange County mental health hospitalizations of adults trended downward before the pandemic as hospitalizations of residents aged 65 and older decreased by 28 percent and hospitalizations of residents aged 18–64 decreased by 5 percent between 2010 and 2019. The hospitalization of children and youth (aged 0–17), on the other hand, increased by a staggering 99 percent during the same time period. Hospitalizations for all age groups will likely increase in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite consistent declines in substance use hospitalizations in children and youth over the past decade, there was a 33 percent increase over the past year, and adults saw an 11 percent increase over the same time period. Older adults were the only group that saw a decline in substance use hospitalizations, a number that declined by 14 percent since 2018. The overall death rate due to opioids increased from 7.9 to 8.4, an increase of 6.3 percent over the past year; the hospitalization rate increased by 28.4 percent over the same time period. Together, mental health and substance use-related hospitalizations in Orange County increased from 50 per 10,000 residents in 2018 to 52.7 in 2019, an increase of 5.4 percent. This was the highest percentage since 2007 and well above the low of 48.8 measured in 2010.
126
Youth Mental Health and Mood Disorders Increased Before Pandemic O V E RA LL ME NTA L ILLN E SS H O SP I TA L I Z ATION S PER 10,000 B Y A G E IN O R A N G E C OU N TY, 2 0 10 –2 0 1 9
60 50 40
Adults
Children and Youth
Older Adults
All
51.6 40.7
42.9
3 7 .3 38 8..7 34.3
37.6
30 20
17.3
10 0 201 0
201 1
201 3
Chil dr en and Y ou th
30
M A JOR DE P R E SSI ON A N D MO O D D I SORDE RS HO S P I TA L I Z ATION S PER 10,000 B Y A GE IN O R A N G E C OU N TY, 2 0 10 –2 0 1 9
201 2
201 4
201 5
Adults
201 6
201 7
Older Adults
201 8
201 9
All
23.7 20 15.8
15.3 13.6
12.4 12.0 10
10.3
9.3
0 201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
Chil dr en and Y ou th
S U B STA NCE U SE H O SP I TA L I Z ATION S PER 10,000 B Y A GE IN O R A NG E C O U N TY, 2 0 0 8 –2 0 1 9
201 4
201 5
Adults
201 6
201 7
Older Adults
201 8
201 9
All
30
20.3
20 16.0
10
11.5 8.8
7.7
1.7
0.8
0 200 8
200 9
201 0
201 1
201 2
Chil dr en and Y ou th
201 3 Adults
201 4
201 5
201 6
Older Adults
201 7
201 8
201 9
All
Sources: Office of Statewide Health Planning & Development Patient Discharge Data prepared by Orange County Health Care Agency, Research and Planning; California Department of Finance; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey
127
Substance-Related Death Rates Continue to Rise M E N TA L H E A LTH A N D SUBS TANC E US E- RELAT ED DEAT HS PER 1 0 0 ,00 0 IN ORA N G E COUNT Y, 2010–2019 13. 0 13. 0
10. 0 10. 0
12.5 12.5
10.7 10.7 10.2 10.2
9.8 9.8 9.2 9.2 8.4 8.4
7. 0 7. 0
201 0 201 0
201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4 201 1 Chr on2i0c1L2ive r Dis2e0a1s3 4s is e and C2ir0r1 ho Chr on ic L ive r Dis ease and C irrhos is
201 5 201 6 201 7 201S5ui cide 201 6 Drug-2I n0d1u7ce d Sui cide Drug-I nduce d
201 8 201 8
201 9 201 9
Source: California Department of Public Health, County Health Status Profiles
Orange County Schools Join with Children’s Hospital to Address Student Mental Health Needs The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the past decade’s increase in mental-health related hospitalizations of children and youth. According to the Community Suicide Prevention Initiative, “[t]he youth suicide rate in Orange County increased by 11 percent from 2010 to 2018, the sharpest increase among the 20 most populous counties in the U.S. Reecting a national trend, suicide is the second-leading cause of death among adolescents in Orange County.” In response to this trend, Children’s Hospital of Orange County (CHOC) and the Orange County Department of Education have partnered to provide connections between classrooms and mental health services and to create “well spaces” on all campuses where students can visit counselors, meditate,andrelax.Therst“wellspaces”openedinAugustand 02 arestaffedby counselors, psychologists, or social workers with whom students can book meetings. CHOC and the OCDE plan to provide access to virtual health checkups and counseling sessions with CHOC doctors and nurses at these spaces.
128
Source: EDSource, Orange County Schools Join with Children’s Hospital to Address Student Mental Health Needs, June 8, 2021
OPIOIDS IN ORANGE COUNTY • At the national level, the rate of overdose deaths increased by more than 4 percent between 2018 and 2019. • Synthetic opioids continue to be the main driver of overdose deaths, accounting for 72.9 percent of overdose deaths nationwide. • No state experienced a significant decrease in overdose deaths over the past year. • California’s drug overdose death rate was 15 (per 100,00),asignificantincreasefromitsdeathrate of 12.8 the previous year.
• Over the past year, emergency department (ED) visits for opioid overdose or use increased by only 2.5 percent, while the hospitalization rate increased by 28.4 percent. • Orange County’s overall opioid-related death rate increased from 7.9 to 8.4, an increase of 6.3 percent since 2018. • Since 2010, the ED visitation rate and hospitalization rates have increased by 76 percent and 34 percent, respectively; the death rate has increased by only 12 percent.
RATE OF OPIOID-RELATED EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT (ED) VISITS, HOSPITALIZATIONS, AND DEATHS IN ORANGE COUNTY, 2010–2019 80 Death Rate
ED Visit Rate
Hospitalization Rate
66.4
60
37.8 40
40.2 29.9
20 7.5 8.4 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
Death Ra te
2014 E D Visit Ra te
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Hospitalizatio n R ate
Sources: California’s Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development Emergency Department and Patient Discharge Data (ED/ hospitalization data); CDC Wonder (death data)
129
AdvanceOC Introduces the Orange County Equity Map Created through a partnership between AdvanceOC, the County of Orange and the Healthcare Agency (HCA), the Orange County Equity Map (OC Equity Map) is an interactive data visualization platform, which highlights the social and health disparities and gaps in the region with a focus on impacts resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. It allows users to explore the Social Progress Index (SPI), CDC Health Indicators, and demographic information, and apply other map overlays (including COVID-19 case counts and testing rates) to 580 census tracts in the egi r on. In the ds wor of County Health Officer Clayton Chau, “This depth of data will help to create a roadmap for private and public partnerships to collectively address complex social circumstances at the root of inequities in health and well-being. The platform also supports the OC Health Care Agency’s mission to work collaboratively with the community to deliver sustainable and responsive services that promote population health and equity.” The OC Equity Map’s foundation is the SPI, which incorporates over 50 indicators of health and wellness of a community into three broad categories: Basic Human Needs, Foundations of Wellbeing, and Opportunity. The SPI was created to inform and educate esi r dents, elected officials, and local stakeholders on their neighborhod’sspecificneeds,andtoenableemor targetedstrategiesandeffectivesolutions.Whilethe current iteration uses 2010 Census data, an updated version will use 2020 Census data.
130
INFRASTRUCTURE
TRANSPORTATION In 2019, 77.3 percent of Orange County residents ages 16 and older drove to work alone, a small decline from the year before. Carpooling also declined from 9.4 percent to 9.1 percent, as did nearly all modes of transportation. The percentage of individuals working from home, on the other hand, increased from 6.7 percent to 7.6 percent, indicating a growth in remote work’s popularity even before the COVID-19 pandemic. The 2020 and 2021 survey results will likely show much higher remote work numbers.
OC Residents Continue to Prefer Driving Alone MO DE OF TRAV E L TO WO RK IN O RANGE CO UNT Y, 2019
2.1%
1.8% 1.5%
0.6%
7.6%
9.1%
77.3%
Dro ve A lone Wal ked
Carpool ed Publ ic Tr anspor tati on
Wor ked at Ho me Other Means
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates
132
Working at Home Continues to Increase in Popularity S E L E C TE D MODE S OF TRAV E L T O WO RK IN O RANGE CO UNT Y, 2009–2019 8%
6%
4%
2%
0% 200 9
201 0
201 1
Worke d at Home
201 2
201 3
201 4
Pu blic Trans por tation
201 5 Walke d
201 6
201 7
Othe r M eans
201 8
201 9
Bic ycled
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009-2019 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates
The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically reduced congestion across the entire state as a significantportionftheworkfoce r adoptedwork-from-hestrategiesandstudents began distance learning programs. Orange County was no different. In 2019, the averageOrangetrav Couny elerexperienced14.6hoursfrin eewaytrafficcongestion, up from 13.5 hours in 2018. Orange County had the second highest average annual delay behind only the Inland Empier which eco r ded r 14.5 hours of freeway traffic congestion. Theaveragedelayfeljusttol 3.8hoursthein firsthalfof201eflect r ingthecontiued lockdowns throughout the county. The average delay is expected to increase in the latterhalfof201asthemajofrity businesseshaveeor penedandhirnghasesu r med. Carownershiphasincreasedbyjust0.6percentoverthepastyearafterincreasingby 0.9 percent in 2019 and 1.0 percent in 2018.
133
Freeway Delays Dropped Dramatically During Covid-19 A N NU A L HOU RS OF FREEWAY DELAY PER CAPITA O R C O MMU TE R I N O RA N G E COU N TY, 2 010–2021 (1S T HALF O NLY)
Hours per Capita and/or Commuter
20
15
10
5
0 201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
M or ning Peak
201 5
201 6
After noon Pe ak
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
202 1 (F irs t Half)
Offpe ak
Note:Datafopeak r hourseflect r annualhoursofdelaypercomuteratspeedslessthan60milesperfronhur eewaysOrin ange Dat . County afooffpeak r hoursarepercapita.Countsofcomutersan 20in d2019areprojectedestimatesbasedhiston orical trends and change in vehicle miles traveled; consequently, morning and afternoon peak estimates of delay per commuter should be interpreted with caution. Source: Caltrans, Performance Measurement System; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates; California Department of Finance, Population Estimates, Tables E-2 & E-4
134
Afternoon Delays in San Bernardino/Riverside Counties Overtake OC RE G I O N A L COM PA RISON OF ANNUAL HO URS O F F REEWAY D E L AY P E R CA P ITA OR COM M UT ER, 2019 30
Hours of Delay per Capita or Commuter
25 6.4 3.8
20 2.6 15
2.0
0.3
12.3
11.1 10.4
10
8.1
4.7
4.4
2.4
5 5.6
7.3
7.8
Bay Area
Los Angel es
0 San Bern ar dino / River side
Orange County M or ning Peak
San Die go After noon Pe ak
Offpe ak
Note: Data for peak hours eflect r annual hours of delay per comuter at speeds less than 60 miles per hour on freeways in Orange County. Data for offpeak hours are per capita. Source: Caltrans, Performance Measurement System; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates; California Department of Finance, Population Estimates, Table E-2
Car Ownership Rates Begin to Slow V E H I C L E R E GISTRATION IN OR ANGE C O UNT Y, 2010–2020
2,782,434
2,778,694
2,806,684
2,831,956
2,848,864
201 2
2,714,120
201 1
2,652,166
2,428,906
201 0
2,503,435
2,395,878
2, 000, 000
2,396,150
3, 000, 000
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
1, 000, 000
0 201 3
201 4
201 5
Source: California Department of Motor Vehicles, Forecasting Unit
135
Over 950,000 people both live and work in Orange County with 200,000 more people commuting into the county than out. Overall, approximately 728,776 individuals work in Orange County but live elsewhere, while 527,423 people live in Orange County but work elsewhere. The largest regional trade of workers occurs with Los Angeles County, where Orange County sees over 25,000 more commuters entering. Overall, all neighboring counties have more workers commuting into Orange County than Orange County workers commuting into their counties — a testament o he county’s incredibly stongr job market. While Orange County’s comparatively higher median household incomes attract many workers into the county, they have been outpaced by home prices, a trend that prices many young professionals and families out of Orange County and into more affordable surrounding areas.
OC CONTINUES TO ATTRACT WORKERS I N T E RCOU N TY COM M UT ING PAT T ERNS BET WEEN O RANGE A ND N E I GHBORIN G COU N TIES , 2018
136
WATER USE AND SUPPLY Orange County water consumption increased from 106 gallons per capita per day (GPCD) in 2019 to 108 in 2020, only slightly above the 10-year low recorded in 2016. Orange County’s average water consumption remains well below the Water Conservation Act of (SB 209 X7-7)targetof158GPCD,aeflect r ofin ecen r co t nservateffo ion rtsundertaken by Orange County water users and suppliers. SB X7-7 was enacted in November 2009 andeqr es uir watersuppliersincr to easetheiwat r eruseefficiencyandthestateedu r to ce urban water consumption by 20 percent.
WATE R U S A G E IN CRE A SE S SLIGHT LY IN 2020 800 ,00 0
225
640 ,00 0
180
155 143
143
145
146
135 128 105
117
106
108
582,598
609,882
631,888
573,544
490,748
515,893
557,059
518,610
531,278
200 9
201 0
201 1
201 2
201 3
201 4
201 5
201 6
201 7
201 8
201 9
202 0
0 Acre -Fee t
90
45
560,364
160 ,00 0
109
601,593
320 ,00 0
656,091
Acre-Feet
480 ,00 0
Gallons per Capita per Day
173
0
Gallons per Capita per Day
Source: Municipal Water District of Orange County
137
The region’s total ‘consumptive use’ or total water sourced after conservation efforts totaled 519,000 acre-feet in 2020; this is expected to grow to 580,647 acre-feet by 2030 and 579,189 acre-feet by 2040. Conservation efforts are expected to total 326,496 acre-feet in 2021, slightly below the 330,000 acre-feet conserved in 2020, which can be attributed to a wet year in 2020 vs a dry year in 2021. Looking forward, conservation efforts are expected to reach 365,000 acre-feet by 2040, an increase of over 32 percent.
ORA N GE CO UNT Y WAT ER S O URC ES PRO JECT IO NS, 2 0 2 1 –2 040 1, 000, 000 900 ,00 0 800 ,00 0 700 ,00 0 Acre-Feet
CONSERVATION EFFORTS INSULATE COUNTY FROM FUTURE DEMAND SPIKES
600 ,00 0 500 ,00 0 400 ,00 0 300 ,00 0 200 ,00 0 100 ,00 0 0 202 1
203 0
San ta An a Ri ve r and In ciden tal Gr ou ndwat er Basin Re plen ish men t
Groundwat er Reple ni shme nt Syst em (GWRS)
Recycl ed Water
Oth er Local
I mported Wate r for Re plen ish men t
Conse rva tion
Sources: Municipal Water District of Orange County; Orange County Water District
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138
204 0
I mported Wate r for D ire ct Use
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In May 2021, 15 of the 27 measured water districts in Orange County reported lower per capita water consumption than the statewide average of 97 gallons per day (GCPD). The city with the lowest water consumption in the region was the City of Garden Grove at 49.4 GCPD, while the water district with the highest water consumption was Yorba Linda Water District with 141 GCPD.
12 OC Water Retailers Have Lower Consumption than Statewide Average WATE R C O N SU M P TION IN G A LLO NS PER CAPITA PER DAY BY OR A NG E C O U N TY WATE R RE TAILER, MAY 2021 California Average GPCD, May 2021: 97
49.4
Garden Gro ve City of
58.1
Santa Ana City of
70.6
Irvi ne Ra nch Water D istri ct Ana hei m Ci ty of
78.8
Westminster City o f
80.0
Santa Marg arita Water D istri ct
85.3
San Clemente City o f
85.7
Gol den State Water Comp any West Orange
86.8
Founta in Va lley City o f
88.6
Lag una Bea ch County Wa ter District
89.5 92.0
Buena Pa rk City of Gol den State Water Comp any Placenti a
94.4
Seal Beach Ci ty of
94.8
La Ha bra City o f Publ ic Works
95.4
Mesa W ater Di strict
96.6 98.1
Brea Ci ty of
99.9
Mo ulton Niguel W ater Di strict
100.9
San Jua n Cap istrano City of
104.4
Hunti ngton Bea ch City of Trab uco Canyon Wa ter District
111.3
South Coa st W ater Di strict
111.7
Fullerto n Ci ty of
112.6 115.9
Ora ng e Ci ty of
122.4
Newpo rt Beach City of
124.8
El Toro Water D istri ct
133.6
Tusti n Ci ty of
141.0
Yorb a Lind a Water D istri ct
-
50
100
150
Gallons per Capita per Day Source: State Water Resources Control Board
139
Data Notes: Urban water usage data in acre-feet includes residential, industrial, and comercial water use in a fiscal year (July–June); data identified as2018,foexr ample,eflect r swateruseFYin 2017/18.Thegallonsper capita per day (GPCD) calculations for Orange County overall, provided by the Municipal Water District of Orange County, are calculated to comply with SB X7-7. These GPCD calculations include potable water, lessecy r cledwaterandindiect r potableeur sewaterfother enetir fiscal year. This measure of GPCD differs from GPCD reported in Community Indicators Reports prior t 2017. The GPCD figues r by water supplier from the State Water Resoce ur olCntr Bard eflect r esi r dential water use only and report water usage for a single month. Reporting to the state is currently voluntary for water suppliers. Water conservation savings are calculated based on annual difference between the 240 average GPCD between the year 1980 to 1989 vs the present year [ex. (240 GPCD X – FY 2021 GPCD) X 365 Days X 325851 Gallons = Annual Savings in Acre Feet].
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140
Nationally,
DROUGHT STATUS According to the California Department of Water Resources, the snowpack in California was at 65 percent of the average in the April 1st survey. While this doesn’t indicate the complete absence of snow, it does indicate that snow has melted at the majority f survey stations used. This 65 percent snowpack is higher than the 2019–2020 winter reading snowpack average of 58 percent but significantly below the snowfall experienced prior to 2019, which was measured at 172 percent of the average. Overall, mountain snowpacks provide 30 percent of the yearly freshwater supply for California, but low runoff levels, where snowmelt runoff is being absorbed by dry landscapes, have resulted in below-average state reservoir levels, which are currently at 67 percent of capacity.
4, 500, 000
187.3
million acres of crops and
76.6
100 % 86%
90% 80%
3, 500, 000
70% 56%
3, 000, 000 2, 500, 000
60% 42%
43%
40%
2, 000, 000
37%
50% 31%
1, 500, 000
30%
40% 24%
24%
21%
19%
30%
1, 000, 000
20%
500 ,00 0
10%
0
Percent of Capacity
4, 000, 000 Acre-Feet
of the U.S. is currently in a drought;
million people are currently affected by the drought.72
C U R R E NT T OTA L STORA G E A ND CAPAC IT Y F O R MA J O R R E S E RV OIRS IN CA LIFO RNIA, AUGUS T 25, 2021 5, 000, 000
40.1%
0% s rri Pe D
on
o dr Pe
M
es on el
M
n to er ill
ity in Tr
ic ta as C
ta as Sh
is at m re lle Fl lu Lu vi so e n ro ol cC n a F O S M Pi
Cur rent St oof r ag e Total Capac iCurrent ty CConditions ur rent P erce nfor t of Major Capac itReservoirs y Source: California Department Water Resources,
72
https://www.drought.gov/states/california
141
In terms of rainfall, all cities measued r by the Department of Water Resoces ur had significantly lower average precipitation levels, and all locations are expected to see levels remain below critical levels in the near future.
P E R C E N T OF N ORM A L PRECIPITAT IO N BY C IT Y S INCE O C T O B E R 1, 2020 60%
Percent of Average
50% 40%
56% 56%
53% 52% 46% 45% 39% 38% 37% 36% 35% 34% 33%
30%
30% 29%
27% 18%
20%
15%
10% 0% s y e e o g o ta es e s hoe ka ey ield co on sno ge in nt ll e rin g os is el as e g r sid bl re er la f d kt a e i e R l a c t h s o g i u c r d D n T n o F R V E ve th V er ta Sp on em nt S Re Fra St Ri an ke cr ak os A M a so an ite m a u S l a e a B S n L o S P L D Pa em h Sa M ut os Y o S Source: California Department of Water Resources, Statewide Precipitation Data
Drought conditions are said to be affecting 100 percent of Orange County’s population with FY 2021 marking the seventh driest year in the past 113 years.73 Orange County is currently identified as being in a ‘severe drought’ which is denoted by inadequate grazing lands, longer andemor intensefireseasonsandstessed r ees, tr andanincreaseinwldlifediseases. Despite these drought conditions, Orange County and the Southern California region remain better positioned than other regions in the state due to increased water storage. In the words of Rob Hunter, General Manager of the Municipal Water District of Orange County, “The good news is that Metropolitan (Metropolitan Water District of Southern California) has more water storage than ever…Southern California, because of its investments, is in much better shape than most of the rest of the state.”74 Overall, Metropolitan estimates that water storage is roughly 13 times higher than in the 1990s, indicating it could handle drought conditions in 2021 without implementing water-use restrictions.
73
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74
OC Public Works Rain Gauge #121 Santa Ana https://www.ocregister.com/2021/06/25/south-orange-county-gears-up-for-future-droughts-water-emergencies/
BROADBAND INTERNET ACCESS During the pandemic, social distancing and remote work made high-speed internet access even more important for households across the nation. As technologies continue to evolve, and telecommuting, telehealth, e-commerce, and online education become more and more mainstream, ensuring all residents have access to high-speed internet will be crucial for future economic growth and prosperity. Orange County’s average download speed by zip code was 100Mbps in 2020. Southern county zip codes had higher average internet speeds than those in northern and central Orange County, likely a result of their relative newness and incorporation of newer infrastructure, as well as their residents’ higher average incomes.
Northern and Central Zip Codes See Lowest Download Speeds AVERAGE DOWNLOAD SPEED (Mbps) BY ORANGE COUNTY ZIP CODE
Source: Broadbandnow.com
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Fastest Average Download Speeds in Newer Communities FA STE ST AV E RA GE DOWNLO AD S PEED (Mbps) BY ORANGE COUNTY ZIP CODE
Source: Broadbandnow.com
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LO WE S T P R ICE D BROA DBA N D PLANS BY O RANGE C O U N T Y Z I P CODE
For most of Orange County, the lowest priced broadband plan starts at $29.99. In more rural areas, however, the lowest priced plan increases to between $35 and $55. The northwestern part of the county does have plans under $29.99, along with average or above average internet speeds.
Source: Broadbandnow.com
55.0%
70% 60%
60.5%
73.7%
P E R C E N T O F RE SIDE N TS W ITH ACC ES S T O 1 G I G A B I T BROA DBA N D COV E RAGE BY CO UNT Y, 20 1 8 & 2 0 1 9 80%
10%
11.7%
8.0%
18.6% 9.0%
%0.31
11.0%
20.0%
30%
24.5%
30.9%
40%
23.0%
%0.4
50%
20%
0% San Die go
San Franci sco
Source: Broadbandnow.com
NORTHERN/ COASTAL ORANGE COUNTY ZIP CODES SEE LOWEST PRICED PLANS
Orange
Santa Clara
San Bern ar dino Los Angel es
River side
GOOGLE FIBER IN IRVINE BOOSTS GIGABIT COVERAGE IN OC The percentage of San Diego residents with access to 1 gigabit broadband speeds increased dramatically from 11 percent to 73.7 percent. Orange County saw the second largest increase in gigabit coverage, jumping from 13 percent to 44 percent, largely due to the presence of Google Fiber in Irvine.
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When looking at the typical time spent online in 2021, most residents spend, on average, less than two hours per day online. This excludes time spent looking at messages or emaieas r l. locatedaroundmajuniveror sities,includingUniversiofty California,Irvine show much higher times spent online, likely due to the younger population.
TY P I CA L TIM E SP E N T ONLINE BY C ENS US T RACT, 2021
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GOVERNANCE & CIVIC ENGAGEMENT
VOTER PARTICIPATION Over the past decade, Orange County has seen a slow decline in the percentage of registered Republicans and a corresponding increase in the percentage of registered Democrats. This trend has accelerated in recent years, as seen below.
Registered Democrats in OC Surpass Republicans O R A NGE COU N TY ODD- YEAR VO T ER REGIS T RAT IO N BY M A J O R PA RT Y, 2 0 1 1 –2 0 2 1 50% 43%
45%
42%
41%
40% 35%
38% 32%
32%
32%
34%
37% 33% 34%
34%
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 201 1
201 3
201 5 Democractic
Source: California Registrar of Voters, California Secretary of State
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201 7 Republican
201 9
202 1
IRVINE RANKS #1 AGAIN IN CITY FINANCES
Orange County Voter Registration by Party Fairly Equal When Compared to Regional Peers C O U NTY C O M PA RISON OF ODD - YEAR VO T ER RE G I STR ATI ON BY M A JOR PA RT Y, 2021 70% 63% 60% 53% 50% 40%
46%
%73
40%
%43
32%
30%
41% 30%
50%
40%
27%
24% 17%
20% 10%
17% 7%
0%
Orange
River side
San Ber nardino
San Die go Democratic
California Republican
Source: California Registrar of Voters, California Secretary of State
Los Angel es Santa Clara San Francs ico
Truth in Accounting’s 2020 Financial State of the Cities report ranked Irvine as the United States’ most scallyhealthycityfor the fourth year in a row. Irvine received a “B” grade for its net budget surplus of $380.4 million, approximately $4,100 per taxpayer; Washington, D.C. ranked second with a budget surplus of $2,500 per taxpayer. Santa Ana and Anaheim also made the list, at 43rd and 47th place, respectively.
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Committed to keeping our community more connected. Because we live here too. Spectrum is proud to support the Orange County Community Indicators.
Economic Development
Workforce Development
orange county business council The Leading Voice of Business
www.OCBC.org
Workforce housing
Infrastructure
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