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The actions of the region’s national militaries have been crucial, with their neutrality in Tunisia and Egypt commendable. It was a tragedy that hundreds lost their lives in Egypt’s revolution; however, it could have been much worse if the armed forces were dispatched by Mubarak against his people. In states where the military is not tied to the ruling regime, it can play a pivotal and positive role, by refraining from escalating nonviolent demonstrations and moving quickly to safeguard important institutions. They also help to maintain law and order should a power vacuum arise. By contrast, the possibility of a brutal crackdown is enhanced by the actions of militias loyal to the regimes (like the Basij in Iran) in addition to the police and intelligence officials who pay no heed to human rights and justify anything in the name of national security.
So is a functioning democracy possible in a majority Muslim nation? Turkey and Indonesia already provide credible examples. It’s true they are not liberal democracies free of significant internal corruption, nor do they have ideal human rights records or high living standards. But compared to the rest of the developing world, their people have it pretty good. In any case, comparing the democratic systems of non-Western states with vastly different cultural values to ours is unfair. It is also worth pointing out that the West has had two centuries of conflict and experimentation with various forms of representative government, while postcolonial states have not. The argument that because democracy and the nation-state are Western concepts they are incompatible with non-Western faiths and cultures is farcical. Many ideas and inventions were expropriated by the West from the Middle Eastern empires during the medieval and early modern periods. Furthermore, if the Qur’an is interpreted in its entirety, according to reason and in a historical context, it becomes evident that Islamic religious principles such as consultation, consensus and independent interpretive judgement are conducive to a democratic political system. The vast majority of Muslims are moderate followers of their faith and do not consider there to be a contradiction between the oneness of God and democracy. The US and other Western states will have to work hard to form positive relationships with the new class of rulers, who will be resentful of America’s support for the authoritarian old guard and its blind eye to human rights violations. However, given the vast consumption of the region’s oil by Western industry and consumers, the equipment and training provided by the US to those countries’ militaries, and the ongoing development aid programs, it is unlikely that a significant restructuring of alliances will occur. What is likely to be required in the short-term is humanitarian assistance to displaced persons fleeing the various revolutions. The West should not be too forceful in promoting its brand of democracy and be patient with elections so the grass roots revolutions have time to consolidate their gains and set up a
“ An exaggerated fear among observers of the protests is that islamist groups, such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, may hijack the revolution ”
home grown political process. An exaggerated fear among observers of the protests is that Islamist groups (such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt), may hijack the revolutions and implement their fundamentalist sharia legal systems. The prospect of such an organisation attaining power is highly unlikely as they only have a small minority of support among the populations of the Middle East. In addition, the mood of the protests does not reflect a desire for an islamist mandate seeking to create another theocratic state similar to Iran or Saudi Arabia. The comparisons with the 1979 Iranian revolution that deposed the monarchy are unfounded, as the anti-imperialist sentiment directed towards the US is not as prominent. The people of the Middle East have swallowed the bitter pill of Iraq’s invasion and occupation and are more receptive to President Obama’s foreign policy. The closest Islamists will come to power is if they are included in a coalition government, but this will not translate into their main agenda being implemented or their members being granted important ministries. However, a serious danger is terrorist networks exploiting the uprising and potential civil war in Libya or the protests in Yemen — already an extremist hotspot. Both countries’ leaders have resisted calls to resign, although Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh has vowed not to pursue another term in 2013 and has announced wide reforms. Despite detractors joining the rebels, a significant portion of the Libyan military are defending Muammar Gaddafi’s regime by engaging with the rebels as well as targeting civilian protesters, causing significant casualties. Yemen is struggling to deal with a secessionist movement and has a contingent of CIA personnel combating al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). A power vacuum would only play into the hands of AQAP and other militants. Major protests in Iraq could also destabilise reconstruction efforts and the fragile coalition government which emerged after 8 months of negotiations following elections last year, potentially plunging the country back into civil war. Therefore, whilst the transition to democracy will drastically improve the lives of millions of people in the Middle East, a violent last stand by power hungry despots could drag the region into further insecurity. O
Volume 79, Issue 2
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