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FINANCIAL VOICE Financial Voice
www.abplgroup.com - Asian Voice 8th February 2014
Dear Financial Voice Reader,
During the previous week investors were initially focused on the emerging markets' currencies selloff and didn't react to the encouraging news from the US. However, this was until Thursday when Dollar picked up pace and started gaining against its peers. Retail Sales in Germany fell 2.4%on Friday and more importantly Euro-zone's inflation missed the target for a second month in a row and printed at 0.7%. This means, in simple terms, that Euro-zone has issues moving forward with its recovery, a low inflation number is not a good indication for an economy that tries to grow out of a recession and this worries investors. On Monday, the surprises in the PMI and ISM reports drove the Euro and the Pound in different directions while the Dollar was under pressure. The European currency received some much needed lift from the better than expected Manufacturing PMIs allowing the Euro to run a short relief rally up to 1.3540. The numbers printed strong across the board and that is an encouraging sign for the Euro area that is struggling to find its pace on the recovery race. On the other hand, the Pound came under selling pressure when the Manufacturing PMI disappointing coming at 56.7, lower than the 57.3 previously eyed. Investors and traders sold off the Pound aggressively as fears for a peak in the recovery came back in the forefront. The fact of the matter is that the underlying components in the PMI report were better than the headline figure reveals but traders sold off the currency anyway, hinting us that it's the future expectations that worry them rather than the number itself. Dollar was also under pressure as the ISM Manufacturing report came in a lot lower than expected printing at 51.3 from the 56.0 expected, which is one of the largest drops in over 20 years. Analysts made word of the weather conditions that prevented people from going to work and tampered with production but still the weather can't account for this drop entirely. With the NFP miss last month, the deteriorating conditions in emerging markets and the drop in the Manufacturing activity the Dollar really needs something solid to hold on to. Might that be the NFP report later this week? The fact remains that confidence among investors has taken a hit and a stabilizing factor is needed. Janet Yellen, the new head of the Fed, is expected to play a vital role in bringing back confidence in investors' hearts and I'd like to see how the new Chairwoman will cope with this mission. Definitely the event of the week will be the NFP release on Friday and investors are eager to see whether the previous miss in the employment figures was nothing more of a blip on the radar or more weakness should be expected in the jobs sector in the US.
Paul Singer joins Vyman Solicitors
Paul Singer, commercial lawyer and B r i t i s h Hospitality Association board director, has been appointed as head of commercial property at Vyman Solicitors in Marylebone High Street. Senior Director, Anup Vyas, said, “Paul has a
wealth of knowledge, experience and connections in the property, restaurant and leisure market, particularly in Central London. We are confident that his involvement will add considerable value to our clients and a unique extra dimension to our advisory services in these sectors.”
India has overtaken Japan as the world's thirdbiggest crude oil importer in 2013, data showed. India imported 3.86 million barrels-per-day of
crude oil last year. India's imports were nearly 6 per cent higher than Japan's customs-cleared imports of 3,648,372 bpd (211,716,710 kilolitres).
India overtakes Japan as world's No.3 crude importer
Alpesh Patel’s trading system outperforms all UK fund managers
Alpesh Patel, the wellknown asset manager, developed a software for the private investor, the ‘Sharescope Alpesh Patel Special Edition’ trading system, which has achieved a return of 351% over 10 years compared to 56.5% for the FTSE AllShare. It has also beaten the 10 year return of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (one time the world’s richest man and best known investor) which only rose 100% in that time. Patel has also beaten all the top performing managers in the UK over the 10 year period. The’ Value/Growth’ system developed by Alpesh Patel targets companies with an outstanding combination of valuation, growth and dividend characteristics. The system maintains an up-todate shortlist of companies that meet his criteria. He said. “I grew up under Thatcher’s vision of a share-owning democracy, so I’ve always believed in the public owning shares – that is a true capitalist democracy where entrepreneurs can go to the public not just banks for money. I’ve always wanted to share professional-standard research with private investors and help them generate a market-beating return without the legwork or costly fund manager fees. ShareScope is the perfect vehicle for my system because it provides high quality data and the powerful tools which enable the system to be automated. When the credit crunch happened, I was even more keen to make sure the public didn’t have to rely on overpaid bankers, brokers and fund managers who got paid for underperforming. Now a machine proves it! It’s especially sweet because after I left Oxford and the Bar I was rejected by all the big banks.” He continues, “Sure I could have become ridiculously rich by charging huge fees to manage the portfolios of the super-rich and keeping my expertise to myself, but that was fundamentally against my vision for a share-owning democracy where everyone can participate. Personally it’s been a huge financial sacrifice, but I’ve been motivated by the political fairness of the idea as much as solving a major problem private investors face: huge fees, and which stocks to buy.” Patel says “Buy the stocks on the shortlist on any day of the year and
hold for 12 months. Sell any stock that falls 25%. It’s that easy. I target 25% per year return but this is a guide. Over a ten year period which has included the credit crunch, I‘m very happy with 16.3% annualised return.” His story of how he invented the software can be found at: http://storify.com/alpeshp1/top-market-tips.html The system has been measured independently by Sharescope by doing just this. Usually, Alpesh highlights the stocks in his filter in January – in the newsletter he writes for subscribers to the system. The performance of the stocks is measured form the closing price on the date of publication to the close on the last trading day of the year. Any stock that has fallen 25% from the start price, at any time during the year, is logged as a 25% loss. The annual picks have achieved a total 351% increase over ten years given an annualised return of 16.3%. Patel added “Despite the recent market sell-off I remain bullish for 2014. This could be an excellent time to buy into the stocks in my Value/Growth screen”. Private investors can download and try the software for themselves by v i s i t i n g : www.sharescope.co.uk/al peshpatel As further free resources for private investors Patel also launched www.investingbetter.com offering free daily market tips and w w w. a l p e s h p a t e l . c o m which gives investment educational videos. “I want others to learn and do it themselves too,” says Patel. What next for Patel, “Well DeepMind the algorithm maker just got bought for $400m by Google. My company TraderMind makes algorithms, so maybe it’s time I got rich – but off Google, not the public. I’ve been Co-Chair of the Loomba Trust over the past few years which looks after widows and orphans, so that would be a good thing to focus on as soon as Google buy my company out!” Alpesh Patel: Alpesh Patel is the founder of a FCA regulated asset management firm managing millions of dollars in investments. He won the Financial Times competition to ‘predict the FTSE 100’ over a 12 month period beating other City professionals and traders to
come within 0.5% of the final value. Each fortnight he appears on the BBC to provide his much soughtafter analysis of global events – reaching 280 million viewers worldwide. He is invited regularly on Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, Al Jazeera and other major networks and has given investment speeches in US, China, India, Guatemala, Thailand among many others. He is the author of 18 books on trading published which have been translated into German, French, Mandarin, Russian, Polish, Korean and Thai. His book Trading Online hit number 2 on the Amazon bestseller list, just behind ‘Harry Potter’. S h a r e S c o p e : ShareScope has been voted the UK’s “Best Investment Software” for nine years running by
readers of Shares magazine and eight out of the last nine years by readers of Investors Chronicle. It is also widely used by investment journalists and writers, pundits and trainers. ShareScope covers equities, indices, funds, investment trusts, ETFs, bonds, forex, commodities and economic data. It provides comprehensive portfolio management facilities and a powerful stock screener. ShareScope runs a fortnightly sentiment survey which typically receives around 900 responses. If you would like to pose a question in this survey to gauge investor sentiment on an issue, please contact us. The survey is delivered electronically via ShareScope on a Monday with results available to you on the Thursday. 70% of our customers invest and 70% trade.
India to create 100 mn jobs: Anand Sharma
Anand Sharma, India’s commerce and industry ministry, while addressing the World Economic Forum in Davos said that the country would be aiming to create around 100 million skilled jobs by 2022 in the manufacturing sector by raising its share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 16% to 25%. A large delegation of ministers as well as business leaders from
India attended this annual meeting. Sharma also had interactions with some top executives of large companies from across the world and met around 80 business leaders from India and abroad at an investment roundtable. He also met top executives of global firms, including Diageo, Heineken and Shell, and pitched about the growth of India.
The luxury car markers are planning to launch more high-end cars in India this year. Hyundai is likely to launch three new cars, Sedan of the Hyundai Grand, the proposed multipurpose vehicle (MPV) and the refreshed new Santro. Maruti Suzuki is also looking forward to launch face-lifted version of Swift, SX4 and Dzire. Even Honda, Datsun,
Tata Motors are planning to launch new cars this year. Tata Motors will be launching new Vista and Manza this year. Mercedes Benz could be the first to launch its new model this year, the new S-Class. BMW is planning a slew of new launches, the new X5, 3GT and MINI. Porsche will be launching the new Mecan and Mecan Turbo later this year.
NASDAQ OMX, the American stock exchange, has opened a new office in Bangalore which will focus on developing new technologies, including the next generation investors relations platform. NASDAQ had shut its operations in India in 2009. This is the second time they have entered the Indian market
and are looking to deepen their business relationships and outreach within the Southeast Asia region. NASDAQ’s technology solutions are used by over 10,000 customers in 60 countries including public and private entities, exchanges, regulators and broker-dealers and powers over 80 marketplaces worldwide.
Luxury car makers focus on Indian market
NASDAQ opens office in Bangalore