Use and Misuse of Data Narratives in the Colony Mario Marazzi-Santiago, Ph.D. Executive Director Instituto de EstadĂsticas de Puerto Rico
Data Narratives for the Colony Example Report on the Census of Porto Rico 1899, U.S. War Dept. ⇒ American racial concepts were used in Puerto Rico from the beginning without any thought given to the local concepts of race (mulatto, etc.) Source: AvilÊs, Luis A. (2011). Mosaico nacional, racial y sexual: 1899. 80grados.
The “Whitening” of Puerto Rico 50%
Percent of Non-Whites
50%
➢ With the approval of the Commonwealth Constitution in 1952, the Puerto Rico Government chose to exclude the race question from its Census Questionnaire.
38%
25%
25%
➢ In 1997, the Puerto Rico Government requested the use of the stateside questionnaire in Puerto Rico: race is back!
13%
0% 1899
38%
13%
0% 1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
Source: Decennial Census of Population, U.S. Census Bureau.
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Effects of the Data Narratives on Society • Loveman & Muñiz (2007). How Puerto Rico Became White: Boundary Dynamics and Intercensus Racial Reclassification. American Sociological Review Vol. 7.2 ⇒ Puerto Rico whitened between 1910 and 1920 primarily through boundary shifting—an expansion of the social definition of whiteness itself.
Puerto Rico Focus Groups on the Census 2000 Race and Ethnicity Questions Census 2000 Evaluation Report B.13 • Unanimous agreement that the question on race is inappropriate to the Puerto Rican context • Participants could not find themselves reflected in the available answer categories, which they viewed as foreign to the Puerto Rican history and culture of mixing across racial groups. • Some also felt the question was inherently racist, discriminatory, and divisive, and suspected a hidden political agenda.
Commonwealth required a new data narrative Puerto Rico, like its Caribbean neighbors, was overpopulated. Modern development required migration en masse.
The Artifice of Caribbean Island’s Overpopulation • Avilés, Luis A. (2010). The credibility of small island overpopulation: A critique of population density maps as a proxy for overpopulation. Journal of Critical Geographies. ⇒ Crude Population Density Rates (Population / Surface Area) treat all countries using the same scale. As a result, smaller areas tend to have higher crude population densities. ⇒ Properly weighted population density rates show that “there is insufficient statistical basis to conclude that Caribbean islands are overpopulated.”
Fostering Dependency Through Data Narratives Poverty Rate • Measured by U.S. Census Bureau using uni-dimensional poverty rate based on income threshold. • Puerto Rico has had the highest poverty rates in the United States since (just about) forever. Labor Force Participation Rate • Measured by Puerto Rico Government using standard methodologies of the International Labor Organization • Puerto Rico has had the lowest participation rate in the United States, and one of the lowest in the world, for many years.
Blurred Data Concepts under the Colony • Should Puerto Rico residents moving to the Unites States be considered as “migrants” or “immigrants”? • Should goods shipped between Puerto Rico and the United States be considered as “exports” or “imports”? • Should American tourists in Puerto Rico be considered as “foreign tourists”? • If I transfer funds to my family back home in Puerto Rico, should that be measured as a “remittance”?
Puerto Rico Statistics on the International Stage • United Nations Regulation Num. M.49 establishes the list of geographic areas for which the UN’s Statistics Division gathers statistics. Puerto Rico has always been included in the M.49 list. ⇒The Puerto Rico Government is responsible (not always successfully) for supplying official statistics on its society, economy, environment, etc. to international organizations. Example: The privatization of the Puerto Rico Telephone Company in the 1990s led to an absence of telecom statistics on Puerto Rico in the International Telecommunications Union and World Bank.
Exclusion from Federal Statistics • The U.S. pays for many important statistical operations in Puerto Rico. Example: The Decennial Census • But, the current political status allows the Federal Government to choose when to include Puerto Rico, and when to exclude it. • This also makes Puerto Rico invisible within the U.S. • The Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics (PRIS) works closely with federal partners to change this situation. Examples: U.S. Cancer Statistics, Energy Information Administration, Cost-of-Living
Cost of Living in Puerto Rico versus in U.S. • PRIS worked to have the San Juan, PR MSA included in the Costof-Living Index (COLI) of the Council for Community and Economic Research, which has been around since 1968 and which covers some 300 geographic areas in the U.S. • San Juan, PR MSA has a higher cost-of-living than the average cost-of-living of these 300 geographic areas in the U.S. Examples: Electricity, Margarine, Lettuce. • Is it the Jones Act or is it just an isolated area? • Paradigmatic shift for policymakers in San Juan and Washington
Three Examples of Data Narratives that have Supported Puerto Rico’s Indebtedness • The population will always rise. • Medicare treats all American citizens the same. • Retail Sales are so strong in Puerto Rico, that with the new sales tax Puerto Rico will be able to continue to access credit markets at reasonable rates.
Reality Puerto Rico’s catches Population up (millons of people)
4.5
3.375
2.25 • 1.125
Hurricanes Irma and María hit Puerto Rico in September 2017
0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
PREPA’s 2013 Bond Emission
Prevalence of Public Housing vs. Median Gross Rent $1,800
$1,350
$900
$450
Puerto Rico
$0 0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
Source: ACS/PRCS, Census Bureau, 2010 3-year estimates (vertical axis). Residents Characteristics Report, HUD, May 31, 2015, and ACS/PRCS, Census Bureau 2013 5-year estimates (horizontal axis).
Retail Sales • Following a benchmark revision, the value of retail sales was overestimated by the Puerto Rico Government in 2007. • A couple of years later, this data was being used in official bond emission documents to sell COFINA bonds. • It wasn’t until 2015 that Economic Census provided evidence to support the hypothesis that retail sales were overestimated. • By then, some $18 billion in COFINA bonds had been emitted.
Concluding Thoughts • The use of foreign data narratives can create a lot of confusion. • Data narratives have been used to support the colony and its dependency on the U.S. for many years. • The colony blurs certain concepts, which makes data narratives ambiguous at times. • When Puerto Rico joins a new federal or international statistical product, paradigmatic change is possible. • Beware of the data narratives that support indebtedness. • Puerto Rico needs an independent Institute of Statistics.
Net Air Passenger Movement on Rico Sept-2017 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Total
domestic flights into Puerto -43k -95k -46k -184k
⇒ On net, almost 6% of Puerto Rico’s population left Puerto Rico on a domestic flight, during the 3 months following the
Net Air Passenger Movement into Puerto Rico (Domestic flights only)
50,000 25,000 0 -25,000 -50,000 -75,000
9/1/1
10/1/
11/1/
12/1/
1/1/1
2/1/1
3/1/1
4/1/1
5/1/1
6/1/1
7/1/1
8/1/1
9/1/1
10/1/
11/1/
1/1/1
2/1/1
3/1/1
4/1/1
5/1/1
6/1/1
7/1/1
8/1/1
9/1/1
10/1/
11/1/
Source: U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Air Carrier Statistics.
12/1/
-100,000
Net Air Passenger Movement on Rico Sept-2017 Oct-2017 Nov-2017 Total
domestic flights into Puerto -43k -95k -46k -184k
⇒ On net, almost 6% of Puerto Rico’s population left Puerto Rico on a domestic flight, during the 3 months following the
➢The New Fiscal Plan projects that the population will decline by 7.7% during Fiscal Year 2018, that is between July 1st, 2017 and July 1st, 2018. ➢Assuming no natural change in the population (births = deaths), how many people would have to migrate on net during Fiscal Year 2018 to meet this projection? ⇒ Answer: -250k
➢Between July and November 2017, there was an estimated -210k net air passenger movement on domestic flights. ➢Will we see some net returns over the next few months? ➢How many?