Climate Change in the West Balkans by Zoï Environment Network

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment and security risks into regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multistakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and countries. ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security risks in four regions: Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus and Central Asia.

© ENVSEC, Zoï environment network, 2012 This publication has been prepared by Zoï Environment Network on behalf of UNEP in the framework of ENVSEC. Numerous organizations and experts from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia contributed to the publication. The financial support for the preparation has been provided by the governments of Austria and Finland. ISBN: 978-2-940490-06-6

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holders, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. UNEP and Zoï Environment Network would appre ciate receiving a copy of any material that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in written form from the copyright holders. The use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products for advertising is not permitted.

Editorial and production team: Jasmina Bogdanovic, Lesya Nikolayeva, Viktor Novikov, Aleksandra Siljic, Otto Simonett (Zoï Environment Network) Harald Egerer, Pier Carlo Sandei (UNEP Vienna)

The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the partner organizations and governments.

Design and layout: Carolyne Daniel

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of a commercial company or product does not imply endorsement by the cooperating partners. We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made.

Text: Geoff Hughes Maps and graphics: Matthias Beilstein, Yann Demont

Photos © → Goran Pozek

Printed on 100% recycled paper with the use of technologies that minimize climate damage.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ADAPTATION IN THE REGION

68 VULNERABILITY

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REGION

BACKGROUND

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

FOREWORD This report forms part of an awareness-raising campaign by the United Nations Environment Programme and the Environment and Security initiative on the effects of climate change. Representatives of governments, international orga nizations, civil society organizations and research institutions and other experts from the region have compiled this booklet with the objective of revealing and explaining the linkages between people and the environment in the Balkans. Climate change is a complex process that can exacerbate threats caused by persistent poverty, by weak institutions for the management of resources and for conflict resolution, by a history of broken communication channels and mistrust between communities and nations and by inadequate access to vital natural resources such as water and arable land. Our intention is to stimulate a policy debate and to contribute to a society that is better informed about upcoming environmental challenges, even tually strengthening the basis for planning for the inevitable consequences of climate change. Effective governance and political and economic

stability are crucial to a country’s or a region’s capacity to cope with climate change. Reporting on these sensitive and complex matters is an essential component of our work, and we strive to do so without casting aspersions. Daunting challenges in terms of climate change exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity are identified in the region, and we are pleased to observe that the countries are making progress in developing their strategies for adaptation to climate change. A number of regional agreements and initiatives provide a good basis for enhanced regional cooperation as well. We hope that this report will be of some assistance to those who develop climate change policies and programmes in the region and that it will stimulate concrete actions that eventually can be reported back to the world at one of the future global meetings on climate change.

Jan Dusik Acting Regional Director for Europe United Nations Environment Programme

Guest list of the official COP 15 Royal Climate Change dinner in Copenhagen → http://kongehuset.dk/publish.php?id=23249 H.E. Prime Minister Sali Ramë Berisha (Albania) H.E. President Stjepan Mesić (Croatia) H.E. President Gjorge Ivanov (Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) H.E. Prime Minister Milo Dukanović (Montenegro) H.E. President Boris Tadić (Serbia)

Climate change in the West Balkans: Key findings, trends and projections ALBANIA1

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Air temperature change (last half century)

Precipitation change (last half century)

CROATIA

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards (1990–2009) Water resources availability in the future (forecast period until 2100)

Health infectious and vector-borne diseases6 Greenhouse gas emissions (in CO2eq) for period observed

n.a.

Policy instruments, actions and awareness

Climate observation and weather services (1990–2009)

increase, enhancement

decrease, reduction

mostly increasing, improving

variable

Information related to vulnerability assessment and adaptation options is based on the study focused on the Drini River Cascade (area from Kukes up to the Lezha Plain).

Air temperature change covers only 11-year period 1990-2000 compared to reference period (1961-1990).

Precipitation change covers only period 1999-2008 compared to reference period (1961-1990).

Lower river flows are expected although scenarios are to be introduced in Second National Communication; “water managers are still using historical climate data to design water infrastructure and guide management decisions”.

Decrease is expected, although further studies are required.

In West Balkan countries reliable health statistics on the impacts of climate change on population health, illness and mortality do not exist, since mandatory health records do not contain information for such a complex evaluation. According to National Communications under the UNFCCC, estimated data indicate an increase in the number of strokes and mortalities, mostly as a result of higher temperatures.

Greenhouse gas emissions are available only for the base year (1990).

Basic systems providing information on water resources were never rebuilt after the breakdown of the former Bosnia and Herzegovina Hydrometeorological Service during the early 1990s. One of proposed adaptation measures is the development of a Hydrological Information System.

Sources: Most recent National Communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, 2012.

BACKGROUND

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

BACKGROUND

GDP in the West Balkans constant 2000 USD per capita

Democracy, economic development and even statehood itself are all less than secure in the Balkans, a region with a history of conflict. Now, as the countries of the region strive for individual and collective stability, they face the additional challenges brought by climate change, and do so against a background of new international borders and dynamic populations with strong ethnic identities. In spite of these challenges, however, the six West Balkan countries (the Republic of Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; the Republic of Croatia; the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia; Montenegro; and the Republic of Serbia) that are the subjects of this report have all experienced rising GDP in the 1995â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 2009 period with the exception of the slight declines in 2008 corresponding to the global financial crisis. In addition, all have made progress towards membership in the European Union. And in perhaps the most encouraging sign of all, the younger generations are demonstrating an astonishingly high degree of bottom-up cooperation across a range of issues. A series of six maps illustrates the development of national boundaries in South-Eastern Europe. The capacity of the region to respond to the effects of climate change depends to a large extent on its political stability and the effectiveness of its governance. As the series of maps suggests, political stability in the region is a work in progress that may affect the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ability to respond effectively to climate change. 10

7000

Croatia 6000

5000

4000

3000

Montenegro 2000

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania Kosovo* Serbia

1000

0 1995

2000

2005

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with

UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

2009 Source: World Bank, 2011.

R U S S IA

Vienna

Budapest

R U S S IA

AVienna U STR IA- H U N GARY

Budapest

Zagreb

R U S S IA R O M A N I A Bucharest

Zagreb

Budapest Belgrade E RY B I A A U S T RSarajevo I A - H U N G AS R

R O M A N I A Bucharest Sofia

Zagreb Belgrade SarajevoMONTENEGRO S E R B IA

R O M A N I A Belgrade Bucharest Sofia OTTO MAN EMPIRE I T A L Y SarajevoMONTENEGRO Constantinople S E R B IA

O T T O M A NSofia EMPIRE

MONTENEGRO

Congress of Berlin

Constantinople

Congress of Berlin

1878

CZECHOSLOVAKIA Congress of Berlin Vienna Budapest AUSTRIA CZECHOSLOVAKIA

Vienna Zagreb AUSTRIA Zagreb

POLAND

SOVIET UNION

POLAND

SOVIET UNION

H U N GARY

Vienna Zagreb AUSTRIA

Budapest CZECHOSLOVAKIA

H U N GARY Belgrade Budapest

SOVIET UNION

R OB UML G A ANR IIA A

Constantinople

B U LGAR IA

TURKEY

I TALY 1923

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

Constantinople

I TALY 1923

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

Constantinople

1923

TURKEY SLOVAKIA G R E E CU EK R A I N E

Treaty of Lausanne Vienna

AUSTRIA Vienna SLOVENIA AUSTRIA

Sofia

TURKEY

Budapest SLOVAKIA H U N GARY

U K R A I MOLDOVA N E

Budapest R O M UA K N RI AA I MOLDOVA N E Zagreb SLOVAKIA C R O AHT U I AN G A R Y Vienna Bucharest SLOVENIA BOSNIA AND Budapest AUSTRIA Zagreb Belgrade R O M A N I A MOLDOVA C RHERZEGOVINA O AHT U I AN G A R Y Bucharest Sarajevo SLOVENIABOSNIA B UA LNGIAAR I A Zagreb AND YUGOSLAVIA Belgrade R O M Sofia C RHERZEGOVINA OAT IA Bucharest Sarajevo THE FORMER YUGOSLAV BOSNIA AND REPUBLIC OF B U LGAR IA YUGOSLAVIA Belgrade MACEDONIA I T A L Y HERZEGOVINA Sofia Istanbul ALBANIA Sarajevo THE FORMER YUGOSLAV

I TALY 1995

Dayton Agreement

I TALY

1995

Dayton Agreement

1995

Dayton Agreement

B U LGAR IA REPUBLIC OF YUGOSLAVIA TURKEY MACEDONIA Istanbul G R E ESofia C E ALBANIA THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

MACEDONIA

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

TURKEY Istanbul

TURKEY G R E E C E

R O M A N I A

B U LGAR IA Bucharest Sofia

R O M A N I A B U LGAR IA

Bucharest Sofia

Constantinople

B U L GAR IA OTTO MAN MONTENEGRO Sofia Constantinople ALBANIA EMPIRE G R E E C E

I TALY 1913 I TALY 1913

After Balkan Wars

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

OTTO MAN Constantinople EMPIRE OTTO MAN

1913

EMPIRE CZECHOSLOVAKIAG R E E C E SOVIET UNION After Balkan Wars Vienna Budapest AUSTRIA CZECHOSLOVAKIA

Zagreb

SOVIET UNION

H U N GARY Budapest CZECHOSLOVAKIA

H U N GARY

R O M A N I A SOVIET UNION Bucharest

Belgrade Budapest

R O M A N I A

Y U HG UONS GL A AV R IYA

Bucharest

Belgrade Sarajevo

B UA LNG IAAR I A R O M

Y U G O S LAV IA

Sofia Bucharest

Belgrade Sarajevo

B U LGAR IA

Sarajevo

Treaty of Lausanne

S E R B IA Belgrade I T A L Y SarajevoMONTENEGRO ALBANIA S E R B IA

Sofia Bucharest

Sofia

Bucharest

S E R B IA Zagreb Belgrade SarajevoMONTENEGRO

R OBucharest M A N I A

LAV IA I T A L Y Y U G O S ALBANIA

R U S S IA

R O M A N I A

Budapest Belgrade

A U S T RSarajevo IA- H U N GARY

Vienna Zagreb AUSTRIA

POLAND

Belgrade Sarajevo

Treaty of Lausanne

Zagreb

R O M A N I A

Bucharest

Belgrade Sarajevo

Y U G O S LAV IA

Budapest

AVienna U STR IA- H U N GARY

Vienna Zagreb AUSTRIA

Y U HGUONSGL A AV R IYA

R U S S IA

AVienna U STR IA- H U N GARY

After Balkan Wars

OTTO MAN E M PI R E

I TALY 1878

Budapest Zagreb

AVienna U STR IA- H U N GARY

I TALY 1878

R U S S IA

Vienna

B U LGAR IA

LAV IA I T A L Y Y U G O S ALBANIA

Sofia

Sarajevo

B U LGAR IA

Istanbul

TURKEY

I TALY 1945

ALBANIA

G R E ESofia C E

I TALY 1945

ALBANIA

G R E E C E

1945

TURKEY SLOVAKIA G R E E CU EK R A I N E

After World War II

After World War II Vienna

AUSTRIA Vienna SLOVENIA AUSTRIA

Istanbul

TURKEY

Budapest SLOVAKIA H U N GARY

Istanbul

U K R A I MOLDOVA N E

Budapest R O M UA K N RI AA I MOLDOVA N E Zagreb SLOVAKIA C R O AH T IUA N G A R Y Vienna Bucharest SLOVENIABOSNIA AND Budapest AUSTRIA Zagreb Belgrade R O M A N I A MOLDOVA C RHERZEGOVINA O AHT U I AN G A R Y SERBIA Bucharest Sarajevo SLOVENIA BOSNIA B U LGAR IA Zagreb ANDMONTENEGRO Belgrade R O M A N I A Sofia C RHERZEGOVINA OAT IA Kosovo* Bucharest SERBIA Sarajevo THE FORMER YUGOSLAV BOSNIA AND REPUBLIC OF B U LGAR IA Belgrade MONTENEGRO MACEDONIA I T A L Y HERZEGOVINA Sofia Kosovo* Istanbul ALBANIA SERBIA Sarajevo THE FORMER YUGOSLAV B U LGAR IA REPUBLIC OF MONTENEGRO T URKEY MACEDONIA I TALY Kosovo*G R E ESofia Istanbul ALBANIA C E

2011

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

T UandRtheK * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 MACEDONIA T A L onY the Kosovo Declaration ICJIOpinion of Independence. Istanbul ALBANIA

2011

G R E E C E

T Uand R the KE * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. G R E E C E

2011

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS Szombathely

Graz

A U S T R I A

Székesfehérvár Veszprém

Subotica

Sav

Karlovac

Pula

be Danu

C R O A T I A

Osijek

Timishoara

Brcko

Sarajevo

Split

Pescara

Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

Dubrovnik

Manfredonia

Benevento

I T A L Y Salerno

Potenza

Taranto

Sofia

Pristina

Tirana

MACEDONIA Bitola

ALBANIA

Brindisi

Korche

Ioannina

E Larisa

Kerkyra

Cosenza

Khaskovo

Kavala

Kastoria

Vlorë

Arta

Catanzaro

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, February 2012. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Lamia

A G E A N

Volos Crotone

Serres imo nas Thessaloniki Str

Stara-Zagora Dimitrovgrad K�rdzhali

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

Durrës

Lecce

Plovdiv

Blagoevgrad

Veles

Gostivar

Slive

Pernik

Skopje

Veliko T�rnovo Gabrovo

Kyustendil Shkoder

Bar

Bari

Raz

B U L G A R I A

Leskovac

s Axio

Napoli

Giurgiu Ruse

Pleven

Vratsa

Kosovo*

Podgorica

C S

Foggia

Novi Pazar

BUCURE�TI

Danube

Nis

Craiova Vidin

Mostar

Ploie�ti Piteshti

Bor

Morava

Kragujevac

Buz

Olt

S E R B I A

i na Dr

HERZEGOVINA

DrobetaTurnu Severin

One�

Bra�ov

Ramnicu Valcea

Belgrade

Tuzla

Sibiu

R O M A N I A

Panchevo

BOSNIA AND

res Mu

Sfântu Gheorghe

l hu

Novi Sad

Slavonski Brod

Banja Luka

Zadar

Deva

Tisza

v Dra

Zagreb

Arad

Pecs

Rom

Bac�u

Cluj-Napoca

Szeged

Ljubljana Rijeka

Kecskemet

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA Trieste

Bistri�a

Zalaegerszeg n to Bala

Klagenfurt

Piatra Neam�

Z�lau

S E A

POPULATION AND MIGRATION The demography of the Balkans is anything but static. Populations are ageing, fertility rates are declining and people are moving from rural to urban areas. Ethnic distributions within countries have political implications regarding the rationale for statehood, and international ethnic migration within the region is high as is emigration to other nearby states, Europe, the United States and other western countries.

Population in the West Balkans millions of people 8 Serbia

7 6 5

Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania

4 3 2

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Kosovo*

1 0 1995

Montenegro 2000

2005

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

2009 Source: World Bank, 2011.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

The overall populations in Croatia, Montenegro and Serbia are declining, and Serbiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s population, among the oldest in Europe and with a low fertility rate, is shrinking by 30,000 per year. In Albania, the fertility rate has fallen from 2.0 to 1.3 births per woman, and large numbers of women of child-bearing age have left the country. Emigration and war reduced the population in Bosnia and Herzegovina, but accurate figures are hard to obtain, and a political controversy is holding up progress on a 2012 census.

Population redistributions have disrupted the structure of the working age population, changed the balance in the job market and increased unemployment. The rural-to-urban movement has increased the pressure on already inadequate infrastructure. Many of the best-educated and most highly skilled workers have emigrated to destination countries outside the Balkans.

Population over 64 years old

percentage of total population and absolute number per country in 2010

18 16 14 12 10 8

Serbia Montenegro

6 4

Croatia

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina

0 1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

Source: United Nations, 2011.

Szombathely

Graz

A U S T R I A

Székesfehérvár Veszprém

Zalaegerszeg

Klagenfurt

Sav

Pula

Subotica

C R O A T I A Karlovac

Szeged

Osijek

Deva

R O M A N I A

Brcko

DrobetaTurnu Severin

Belgrade

Tuzla

S E R B I A

HERZEGOVINA

Kragujevac

Sarajevo

Buză Ploieşti Piteshti

BUCUREŞT

Craiova

Bor Vidin

Giurgiu Ruse

Raz

Split Mostar

Pescara

Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

Dubrovnik

S Foggia

Manfredonia

Benevento Salerno

Potenza

Taranto

Leskovac

Sofia

Tirana

MACEDONIA

(inhabitants per km²)

Kerkyra

Crotone

Kavala

Kastoria

Vlorë

Ioannina

Population density

Kŭrdzhali

Thessaloniki

Korche

G Cosenza

Serres

Bitola

E Larisa

A G E A N

Volos Arta

Catanzaro

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, March 2012. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. Source: LandScan Global Population Database 2007, Oak Ridge, TN, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (→ www.ornl.gov/sci/landscan).

Lamia

S E A

Slive

Stara-Zagora Dimitrovgrad Khaskovo

Blagoevgrad

Veles

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

ALBANIA

Lecce

Plovdiv

Kyustendil

Skopje

Durrës Brindisi

Gabrovo

Pernik

Gostivar

Veliko Tŭrnovo

B U L G A R I A

Pristina

Shkoder

Bar

Bari

I T A L Y

Napoli

Pleven

Vratsa

Kosovo*

Podgorica

Nis

Novi Pazar

Oneş

Braşov

Ramnicu Valcea

Panchevo

BOSNIA AND

Sfântu Gheorghe

Sibiu

re Mu

Novi Sad

Slavonski Brod

Banja Luka

Zadar

Arad Timishoara

Rom

Bacău

Cluj-Napoca

Tisza

Zagreb

Ljubljana Rijeka

Kecskemet

Pecs

Piatra Neamţ

Bistriţa

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA Trieste

Zălau

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

International migrant stock is the number of people born in a country other than the country where they live. The data come primarily from censuses, and the idea is to provide a snapshot of the situation in a given area on a certain date. Analysts use extrapolations and interpolations to reconcile data from different periods or sources. The 2010 migrant stock figures for the West Balkan countries indicate the extent of migration in the region. Just more than 50 per cent of the more than 4 million emigrants from the West Balkan countries is living in other Balkan countries or in Italy, Greece or Turkey. Another 29 per cent is elsewhere in Europe, and the remaining 21 per cent is scattered across the globe with significant numbers in the United States, Canada and Australia. Of the more than 1.5 million immigrants in the West Balkans, 52 per cent comes from other Balkan countries or from Italy, Greece or Turkey.

Migration 2010 Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Croatia Kosovo* The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Montenegro Serbia 4321

Total 0

300

600

900

1200

1500

Stock of Emigrants Stock of Immigrants

N/A

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. Source: World Bank, 2010.

Age pyramids

Absolute number of people per age category in 2010 Albania

350 230

Bosnia and Herzegovina

115

230

350

350 230

115

230

350

females

115

230

350

350 230 115

100+ 90-94 80-84 70-74 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4

230

115

230

350

males

0 0 115 230 350 Thousands

Montenegro

350

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Kosovo*

350 230

Croatia

115

350

230

115

230 350

115

230

Serbia

115

230

350

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Source: US Census, 2011.

350

230

350

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

AUSTRIA

HUNGARY

Ljubljana

Zagreb

SLOVENIA Rijeka

Novi Sad Banja Luka

Zadar

Knin Split

All of these demographic changes reduce the region’s adaptive capacity.

ROMANIA

Subotica

CROATIA Brcko

BOSNIAHERZEGOVINA Sarajevo Gorazde Mostar

Belgrade SERBIA Novi Pazar

MONTENEGRO Dubrovnik

Podgorica

Pristina

Kosovo

BULGARIA

Internal migration is also an issue in the West Balkans as many people leave rural areas to seek opportunities in the cities. The population of Tirana has grown from 200,000 to almost 1 million since the end of the communist era, taxing the city’s infrastructure. Belgrade, Sarajevo and Skopje have similar situations. Since 1992 the percentage of the population living in rural areas has declined in every West Balkan country.

Skopje THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

ITALY

MACEDONIA

ALBANIA GREECE

Population displacement, 1991-2001 Croatians Muslims Serbians Others (Albanians, Hungarians) Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, February 2012. Sources: Philippe Rekacewicz; Le Monde diplomatique (→ www.monde-diplomatique.fr); UNEP/GRID-Arendal (→ www.grida.no).

Emigration from the West Balkans Number of people born in a West Balkans country living abroad 1000

10 000 100 000 250 000 500 000

Albania

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Finland

Bosnia and Herzegovina Serbia

Norway

Croatia

* Emigrants from Kosovo and Montenegro are displayed under Serbia. + This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Sweden

Within West Balkans

Denmark Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, March 2012. Source: World Bank, 2010 (â&#x2020;&#x2019; www.worldbank.org).

Ireland

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Germany Poland

Belgium

Czech Republic France Switzerland

Hungary

Austria Slovenia

Other Europe

Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Other

Montenegro* Kosovo* + The former Yugoslav Republic of

Macedonia

Portugal

Albania Spain

Canada

Italy

Greece

ali str Au

United States

Turkey

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REGION

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REGION The Balkan countries experience a range of climates out of proportion to the size of their geographic area. Albania has a Mediterranean climate with mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers, as does the southern part of Montenegro and the coastal and lowland areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The climate in the remaining areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina ranges from temperate continental to alpine. Most of Croatia has a moderately warm, rainy climate. The far north of Montenegro has a continental climate, and the central and northern parts have some characteristics of mountain climate, but with Mediterranean Sea influences on temperature and precipitation.

The climate of Serbia varies from temperate continental in most areas to continental in the mountains to Mediterranean subtropical and continental in the south-west. The climate in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia varies from sub-Mediterranean to moderate continental/ sub-Mediterranean to hot continental to cold continental to a range of alpine sub-climates.

i n

AUSTRIA

AUSTRIA M O L D O V A

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA C R O AT I A BOSNIA AND

SLOVENIA R O M A N I A

MONTENEGRO Kosovo*

R O M A N I A

C R O AT I A BOSNIA AND

S E R B I A

HERZEGOVINA

M H U N G A R Y

HERZEGOVINA

S E R B I A

MONTENEGRO Kosovo*

B U LGAR IA

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

ALBANIA

I T A L Y

MACEDONIA

G R E E C E

B U LGAR IA

ALBANIA

I T A L Y

MACEDONIA

G R E E C E

Change in precipitation, 1951-2006

Change in temperature, 1951-2006

Per cent per year -0.5 -0.4 -0.3

°C per year -0.005 0

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.3%

0.005 0.01 0.015 0.02 0.025

Pula

Panchevo

Banja Luka

B O SBALKANS NIA AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST

Brcko

Belgrade

Tuzla

Ploieşti

DrobetaTurnu Severin

Piteshti

BUCUREŞTI

Craiova S E R B I A Giurgiu Bor HERZEGOVINA Kragujevac Ruse Vidin Sarajevo The Balkans are getting warmer and are projected significant increase in the incidence of dry days. Razgrad to continue on this Split warming trend generally in In the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia – Pleven Mostar proportion to the expected increase in global where the frequency and intensity of floods and Vratsa Novi Pazar Nis temperatures. Similarly, the region is receiving droughts has already increased – the sharpest Veliko Tŭrnovo Leskovac Bijelo Polje B U L G A R I A less precipitation and is projected to experience in precipitation are expected to occur in Sliven M O N T E N E G declines RO Gabrovo Pristina Sofia Pescaradecreases, although precipitation patterns further the summer, along withPernik the greatest increase in Yamb Podgorica Dubrovnik Kosovo* will continue to vary according to terrain, elevation temperature; winter precipitation is expected to Stara-Zagora Plovdiv Kyustendil and proximity to the sea. The effect of warmer Shkoder remain unchanged. Serbia has also experienced Dimitrovgrad Skopje Khaskovo temperatures on evaporation, together withBarthe more frequent and intense droughts. Blagoevgrad Precipitation VelesBosnia and Herzegovina hasKŭrdzhali Gostivar decline in precipitation, will make the region drier. in both Serbia and Manfredonia THE FORMER YUGOSLAVareas, REPUBLIC OFand declined in others. increased in some Foggia Tirana M Ahas C Ebeen D O Nexperiencing IA Durrës All six Benevento of the West Balkan countries conform to Montenegro more frequent Bari Serres the general warming trend, with Albania expecting extreme heat since 1998, but annual precipitation Bitola Napoli ALBANIA I T A L Y Kavala Salerno more frequent droughts. In Croatia, a reduction in has remained fairly constant with some fluctuations Korche Potenza is attributable Brindisi annual precipitation to changes in around the norm, and some analysts detect a Taranto Thessaloniki Kastoria Vlorë Lecceand to the frequency of low-intensity rain days a slight downward trend. Zadar

Ioannina

Kerkyra

Cosenza Crotone

Larisa Volos

Arta Lamia

Catanzaro

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, May 2012.

→

Climate change hotspots Change in annual precipitation by the 2050s

Present risks intensified by climate warming

Increase

Risk of forest fires

Decrease

Risk of desertification

Temperature increase by 1.7-2.3°C by 2050 across the region (depending on the model and scenario)

Risk of decreasing farming productivity and risk of failures of rain-fed crops Sea level rise impacts on coastal erosion and salt water intrusion

Risk of floods Drought and heat waves Projected change in mean seasonal and annual river flow between 2071-2100 and the reference period 1961-1990 Increase Stable Decrease

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. Sources: Global Risk Data Platform (→ www.preventionweb.net/english/maps); European Environment Agency (→ www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/sensitivity-to-desertification-index-map); European Environment Agency (→ www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-change-in-mean-seasonal-and-annual-river-flow-between-2071-2100-and-the-reference-period-1961-1990); Climate Wizard (→ www.climatewizard.org); The Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC) (→ www.rec.org/topicarea.php?id=11&section=events&event=12).

Zalaegerszeg n B al at o

Klagenfurt

Arad Mur eshu

Subotica

Timishoara

C R O A T I A Osijek Slavonski Brod

Pula

Novi Sad

BOSNIA AND

Brcko

Sarajevo

Morava

Kragujevac

Split

Craiova Bor

Pescara

Bijelo Polje

Dubrovnik

Podgorica

C S

Manfredonia Foggia Benevento

Leskovac

Durrës

I T A L Y Potenza

Brindisi Lecce

Taranto

Plovdiv

Stara-Zagora Dimitrovgrad Kŭrdzhali

MACEDONIA

Bitola Korche

Kerkyra Crotone

Str

imo Serres nas

E Larisa

A G E A N

Volos Arta Lamia

Catanzaro

Kavala

Thessaloniki

Kastoria

Vlorë

Ioannina

S E A

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, May 2012.

Climate change hotspots Change in annual precipitation by the 2050s

Slive

Gabrovo Tundzh

Khaskovo

Blagoevgrad

Veles

Veliko Tŭrnovo

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

Tirana

G Cosenza

Sofia

Kyustendil

Skopje

ALBANIA

Salerno

B U L G A R I A Pernik

Kosovo*

Gostivar

Bari

Pristina

Shkoder

Bar

Raz

Vratsa

Nis

s Axio

Napoli

Novi Pazar

MONTENEGRO

Giurgiu Ruse

Pleven

BUCUREŞT

Danube

Vidin

Mostar

Ploieşti Piteshti

Olt

S E R B I A

i na Dr

HERZEGOVINA

Zadar

Braşov

Buz

Ramnicu Valcea

Belgrade

Tuzla

Sibiu

DrobetaTurnu Severin

Oneş

Sfântu Gheorghe

R O M A N I A

Panchevo

Banja Luka

Deva

a Tisz

Karlovac

Rijeka

Rom

Bacă

Cluj-Napoca

Szeged

Pecs

Zagreb

Ljubljana

av a

Piatra Neamţ

Bistriţa

Kecskemet

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA Trieste

Zălau

Siret

A U S T R I A

Székesfehérvár Veszprém

Evro

Szombathely

Graz

25 Present risks intensified by climate warming

Risk of floods

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT AND DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS IN THE BALKANS Scenarios are neither predictions nor strategies, but rather narratives of alternative futures that assist decision-makers and stakeholders plan in an environment of uncertainty. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and the European Environment Agency (EEA) organized a scenario development workshop, “Opportunities for development in the West Balkans in the context of climate change impacts and water scarcity”, held in Belgrade, Serbia, 24–26 October 2011. More than 40 experts from the region participated in the event, and developed four separate scenarios based on assumptions about future climate change impacts (low or high), and about economic growth (sustainable or not). The baseline scenario combines assumptions of low climate change impacts with unsustainable economic growth. The workshop participants considered a wide range of driving forces – social, technological, economic, environmental and political – across global, regional and local levels of influence. Those drivers contributing to greater risk included poor education and an inadequate knowledge base; low political and public awareness; ill-prepared and vulnerable industries; and unsustainable economic growth. The participants identified the following goals or pathways as essential to reaching the desired future: • Good governance • Education and social awareness • Improvement in general welfare • Political stability • Availability of green technology.

West Balkans Scenario Development Workshop Prospective scenario outcomes

Climate Change Impacts

Prosperous and secure → Equality → Good knowledge base → High quality of life → Effective environmental policies and management, including integrated water management and cross-border agreements. → Energy mainly from renewable sources

Prosperous but fragile Sustainable

Similar to “Prosperous and secure”, but : → More intensive resource use controlled by green technology → Declining groundwater resources may necessitate importing water → Decreased hydropower potential may necessitate energy imports.

Low

High

Business as usual

Dramatic impacts

→ Poverty and hopelessness → General scarcity → Drinking water deficits → Water use mainly in agriculture → Some ecosystem recovery attributable to economic stagnation.

Similar to “Business as usual”, but : → A deteriorating environment and a negative development spiral → High water scarcity → Unmanaged extreme events Unsustainable lead to further environmental deterioration.

Economic Growth 27

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.”

– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

While the West Balkans are experiencing serious consequences of climate change, the regionâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s contribution to the problem is much lower than in highly developed countries. In 2008, the CO2 emissions for the West Balkan countries range from slightly more than 1 metric tonne to just over 8 metric tonnes per capita. As a group, their annual per capita emissions are a bit more than one half

those of the European Union (EU-27) countries, and a bit more than one quarter those of the United States. The largest disparity is evident in the total emissions figures: compared to China, the US and the EU, the West Balkansâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; emissions barely register. A brief overview of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation strategies by country follows.

CO2 emissions in the West Balkans metric tonnes per capita

Bosnia and Herzegovina

8 7

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Croatia West Balkans region Serbia

6 5

Serbia and Montenegro

4 3

Montenegro

Albania

1 0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

CO2 emissions in different regions metric tonnes per capita

0 1995

European Union (27)

China 2000

2005

4,000

2,000

West Balkans region

2008

2005

2006

2007 2008 Sources: World Bank, United Nations, 2011.

absolute number in millions in 2008

6,000

2004

8,000

USA

2003

China 7,031

USA 5,461 European Union (27) 4,186

West Balkans region 0,122

0 Sources: World Bank, United Nations, 2011.

AUSTRIA

HUNGARY

SLOVENIA CROATIA

ROMANIA

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

MONTENEGRO

SERBIA

BULGARIA

Kosovo*

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

MACEDONIA

I T A L Y

ALBANIA

Greenhouse gas emissions in the West Balkans Energy Transport

Kilotonnes CO2 equivalents

50000

Fugitive emissions from fuels Industrial processes Agriculture Waste

G R E E C E

20000 10000 5000

Removals by land use change and forestry Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, March 2012. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. Sources: National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, latest year available (Albania 2000, Bosnia and Herzegovina 1990, Croatia 2008, Montenegro 2003, Serbia 1998, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 2002) (→ http://unfccc.int).

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

AUSTRIA

HUNGARY

SLOVENIA

CROATIA

304

ROMANIA

1108

663

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

SERBIA

294

BULGARIA Kosovo*

MONTENEGRO THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

MACEDONIA

I T A L Y

ALBANIA

182

655

Carbon dioxide emissions, 2008 Kilograms per 2005 PPP $ of GDP 1000 500 200 100

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, March 2012. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. Source: World Bank, latest available data (→ http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog).

G R E E C E

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ALBANIA Between 1990 and 2000, Albaniaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s GHG emissions associated with land use change and forestry declined significantly, while emissions in all other sectors increased. Because land use change and forestry represented such a large proportion of total emissions in the base year (45 per cent), the total emissions for the country declined in the period by 3 per cent. The increase in emissions in the energy sector combined with the decline in land use change and forestry emissions resulted in the energy sector having the highest proportion of total emissions in Albania in 2000. The waste sector shows the highest percentage increase, but in absolute terms, waste emissions rose less than in any other sector except industrial processes.

Albaniaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s mitigation strategies for the energy sector include switching to power plants that use cleaner energy sources, and increasing the efficiency of boilers, refrigerators and motors. Agricultural initiatives centre on improvements in the management of manure and grazing systems, and on crop rotation. New landfills with methane recovery and solid waste incinerators are intended to reduce emissions associated with waste. The strategies related to land use change and forestry include the development of a sustainable forestry plan, improvement in forestry management pracÂ tices and rehabilitation of damaged forest land.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2000 in Albania

land use change and forestry

waste

agriculture

industrial processes

energy -100%

-50%

50%

100%

150%

Note: no data available on transport and fugitive emissions from fuels for Albania. Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.

200%

250%

300%

350%

Source: Second national communication of Albania, 2009.

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Greenhouse gas emissions data for Bosnia and Herzegovina are available only for 1990, so no trend analysis is possible. The country is working with external partners on a project intended to enable the preparation of its second communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The second communication will update the GHG inventory, and include additional gases not covered in its initial communication. The project aims to build capacity so that Bosnia and Herzegovina can develop data and estimates that adhere to the good practice guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Bosnia and Herzegovinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s initial communication to the UNFCCC recommends the development of a national climate change mitigation strategy and action plan based in part on the findings of the initial communication, and prepared in conjunction with work on the second communication. DevelopÂ ment of the mitigation strategy is to include a national mitigation policy that relates to national economic and development plans; the identification of measures and activities necessary for implementation; and provisions for the direct inclusion of the entity-level governments.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CROATIA In both 1990 and 2007, the energy sector in Croatia accounted for almost 70 per cent of the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s total GHG emissions. Emissions in the waste, fugitive emissions, transport and energy sectors all increased between 1990 and 2007, while in the agriculture and industrial processes sectors emissions declined. Absorption of GHG emissions in the land use change and forestry sector increased, thus further reducing total emissions. The highest percentage changes occurred in transport, land use change and forestry and waste. The overall GHG emissions during this period increased by 6 per cent. Croatia has already implemented an impressive array of mitigation measures across all sectors, and has identified additional measures as either adopted or planned. In the energy sector, the country has implemented measures to promote the use of renewable energy sources in electricity generation, the application of cogeneration and

the upgrading of energy efficiency in building construction, and has plans to construct a 1,000 MW nuclear power plant by 2024. The transport sector has seen the introduction of biofuel and a programme to increase the attractiveness of rail transport. New measures related to industrial processes are intended to reduce N2O emissions in nitric acid production and volatile organic compounds emissions in solvent use. New waste measures include avoiding and reducing municipal waste generation, enhancing the recycling of municipal waste and using landfill gas for electricity generation. The efficient management of organic manure is being promoted in agriculture, and in the land use and forestry sector, efforts are underway to improve private forest management and to plant new forests. Croatia has also undertaken a number of crosssectoral measures and activities related to its status as UNFCCC Annex I country.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2007 in Croatia land use change and forestry waste agriculture industrial processes fugitive emissions from fuels transport energy

- 50%

- 40%

- 30%

- 20%

- 10%

Note: Croatia is the only Annex I country from the region and therefore has committed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 5 per cent as compared to the base year (1990) during the first mandatory period (2008-2012) under the Kyoto Protocol.

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data. Source: Fifth national communication of the Republic of Croatia, 2010.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA The reduction in emissions associated with land use change and forestry in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia between 1990 and 2002 appears to be impressive, but this sector represented only 2 per cent of the country’s total emissions in 1990. The energy sector accounts for the lion’s share – 70 per cent in 2002. Overall GHG emissions for the period dropped 8 per cent, largely attributable to the decline in agricultural emissions. The second national communication of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia to the UNFCCC

includes a National Action Plan for Climate Change Mitigation. In the energy sector, the plan envisions using natural gas for electric power production, maximizing the potential of hydropower and improving energy efficiency. Transport measures include improvements in the energy efficiency of vehicles and in public urban and intercity transport. The waste strategy introduces sustainable management and measures for waste selection and recycling, composting and the reduction of deposited waste. The main strategy in agriculture focuses on manure management, and in forestry on afforestation.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2002 in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia land use change and forestry waste agriculture industrial processes fugitive emissions from fuels transport energy - 90%

- 80%

- 70%

- 60%

- 50%

- 40%

- 30%

- 20%

- 10%

10%

20%

30%

Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data. Source: Second national communication of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, 2008.

MONTENEGRO Montenegroâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s overall GHG emissions decreased between 1990 and 2003 by 2 per cent, with the largest contribution coming from land use change and forestry. While energy emissions increased slightly in this period, the proportion of total emissions attributable to the energy sector increased slightly â&#x20AC;&#x201C; from 51 per cent to 54 per cent. The largest percentage change in emissions came from absorption in the land use and forestry sector, but in 2003 this sector accounted for only 17 per cent of total emissions. In its initial communication to the UNFCCC, Montenegro identifies emission reduction straÂ tegies for each sector. Strategies for the energy

sector include combining the production of heat and electric power, increasing the efficiency of industrial boilers and replacing coal with liquefied petroleum gas in industrial boiler rooms and in the production of high temperature heat. Plans for the transport sector provide for the replacement of fossil fuels with alternative fuels and for the development of a more efficient transportation system. Strategies for agriculture include the improvement of manure management and the encouragement of organic farming. In the land use and forestry sector, Montenegro intends to increase the share of highly productive forests, to rehabilitate damaged forests and to preserve and enhance woodland habitats.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 2003 in Montenegro land use change and forestry waste agriculture industrial processes fugitive emissions from fuels transport energy - 80%

- 70%

- 60%

- 50%

- 40%

Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.

- 30%

- 20%

- 10%

10%

20%

Source: Initial national communication of Montenegro, 2010.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

SERBIA Between 1990 and 1998 Serbia’s GHG emissions declined by 22 per cent with most of the reduction coming from the energy sector, which accounted for 79 per cent of Serbia’s GHG emissions in 1998. Emissions in the land use change and forestry and waste sectors experienced significant percentage changes, but these sectors represent a small proportion of overall emissions. Serbia’s mitigation plans for the energy sector include improving energy efficiency and using more renewable energy sources. Automation, monitoring and waste energy utilization are the main strategies for reducing emissions in the

area of industrial processes. In the transport sector, Serbia seeks to re-establish an efficient international rail system, repair roads, increase the level and efficiency of river transport and cease production of leaded gasoline. New technologies in coal mine ventilation are expected to reduce fugitive emissions. The use of biogas in the production of heat and power for local consumption in large livestock operations is a key strategy for reducing agriculture emissions, and afforestation is the preferred strategy in the land use change and forestry sector. In the waste sector, Serbia plans to establish regional landfills and increase the degree of recycling.

GHG emissions change from 1990 to 1998 in Serbia land use change and forestry waste agriculture industrial processes fugitive emissions from fuels transport energy - 30%

- 20%

- 10%

Note: comparison between base year and year with latest available data.

10%

20%

30%

40%

Source: Initial national communication of the Republic of Serbia, 2010.

“A green economy results in improved human wellbeing and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. In its simplest expression, a green economy can be thought of as one that is low-carbon, resourceefficient and socially inclusive.” – United Nations green economy report

The idea of a green economy emerged from the recognition that the economy is crucial to the achievement of sustainability, and that today’s economies fail to account sufficiently for pollution, resource depletion, declining ecosystem services and the consequent inequities that affect the poor. The transition to a green economy would entail creating the conditions for public and private investments that include both environmental and social goals. Such investments would drive economic growth while reducing carbon emissions and pollution, enhancing energy and resource efficiency and preventing further losses of biodiversity and ecosystem services.

The measures for responding to climate change – both through mitigation and adaptation – are entirely consistent with the green economy model, as are sustainable development projects. The difference is that a green economy would take a more comprehensive approach, one designed so that all projects meet the tests for sustainability as a matter of course. The West Balkan countries may be able to adopt national policies that encourage a green economy while simultaneously pursuing separate sustainable development and climate change adaptation projects.

VULNERABILITY

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

The ability of the West Balkan countries to respond effectively to climate change â&#x20AC;&#x201C; either alone or together â&#x20AC;&#x201C; depends on their overall vulnerability, which is a function of three factors â&#x20AC;&#x201C; exposure, sensitivity and the capacity to adapt. Exposure accounts for the hazards associated with future climate change as compared to present conditions. Drought, for example, is a hazard resulting from higher temperatures and less precipitation. Sensitivity considers the degree to which exposure to a hazard causes harm. In an agricultural region, for example, exposure to drought may have significant consequences. Adaptive capacity captures the ability of the social, economic and political institutions to respond to the effects of climate change. The vulnerability index combines indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. (These separate indices are included in the sections that follow.) On this relative scale, the higher scores signify higher overall vulnerability. Of the five countries included in this analysis, Albania is the most vulnerable to climate change, and Croatia the least.

Vulnerability index Tajikistan Albania Kyrgyz Republic Armenia Uzbekistan Georgia Azerbaijan Turkmensitan Turkey Moldova The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Serbia Russia Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Kazakhstan Romania Belarus Ukraine Latvia Poland Croatia Lithuania Slovakia Hungary Estonia Czech Republic Slovenia 0

Source: World Bank, 2011.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

EXPOSURE AND SENSITIVITY The exposure index measures the strength of future climate change relative to today’s natural variability, and includes both annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation indicators. It combines the number of additional hot, dry and wet years; hot, dry and wet summers; and hot, dry and wet winters projected over the 2070–2100 period relative to the 1961–1990 period. On this relative scale, the higher scores signify higher exposure.

Rising temperatures and disruptions in the precipitation regime are the most significant exposures for the region. All the countries in the West Balkans face more frequent and more intense droughts and floods, and the four countries with coastal areas – Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro – also face potential hazards associated with a rising sea level. Exposure to these hazards will play out in public health and biodiversity and in key economic sectors – water resources, agriculture, forestry, energy and tourism.

Exposure index

Serbia The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania

Note: no information available for Montenegro.

Source: World Bank, 2011.

The sensitivity index is based on indicators likely to increase the impact of climate shocks. These indicators include the available renewable water resources per capita; the extent of air pollution; the share of agricultural employment and the value of agricultural assets; the share of electricity derived from hydroelectric plants; a measure of the overall quality of infrastructure; and the share of the population over 65 (who tend to be more sensitive to climate shocks). The higher scores signify higher sensitivity.

Sensitivity index Serbia The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia Croatia Bosnia and Herzegovina Albania 0

Note: no information available for Montenegro.

Source: World Bank, 2011.

The sensitivity of the region to its exposure is high, and centres on the climate change effects on water resources. As the disruptions in water resources ripple through the West Balkans, the negative effects will multiply. In particular, agriculture may see diminished production and periodic catastrophic losses, and hydropower may become less reliable. The socio-economic consequences are likely to be profound, and the countries of the region â&#x20AC;&#x201C; on the basis of exposure and sensitivity â&#x20AC;&#x201C; are highly vulnerable to climate change.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

Agriculture has a significant role in the West Balkans’ sensitivity to climate change. Almost half of the land in the region is used for agriculture – 19 per cent in pastures and 29 per cent in arable land and permanent crops. Estimates of agricultural employment vary, as do survey definitions, but between 18 per cent and 58 per cent of the working population is engaged in agriculture, and the sector is an important employer in the region, maybe the most important employer. Agriculture, on average, contributes 17 per cent to West Balkans’ GDP. Croatia’s 6.0 per cent agricultural share of GDP, the lowest in the region, is still significantly higher than the EU average of 1.6 per cent. Higher temperatures combined with more frequent and intense droughts increase the risk of forest fires, and the West Balkans are already experiencing more fires over larger areas – more than 38,000 fires that burned more than 450,000 hectares between 1988 and 2004 in Albania, Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. No reliable data are available to estimate the economic losses, but the environmental damage includes loss of habitat, soil erosion and greenhouse gas emissions. The region’s exposure to more frequent and intense floods has implications for the economies of the countries and for the environment, to say nothing of the attendant human suffering. Flooding in 2010 in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Montenegro forced 20,000 people

from their homes, and caused US$ 450 million in damage. And in the summer of 2011, heavy rains overwhelmed the wastewater system in Pristina, and flooded hundreds of homes causing almost US$ 500 million in damage. The mining legacy in the West Balkans raises the spectre of a flood resulting in an environmental catastrophe, possibly one with international implications. Mine tailings – the waste material remaining after metal and mineral extraction – contain complex compounds and residual chemicals used in the extraction process, and are held indefinitely in tailings management facilities. The volume and contamination level of waste in these facilities can be high, and maintaining reliable storage and management of the tailings is a challenge under any circumstances. Unfortunately, many tailings management facilities in the West Balkans are abandoned, neglected or orphaned. Without routine monitoring and maintenance these facilities deteriorate and become vulnerable to failure and the consequent release of toxic contamination. The main exposure pathways for such releases are rivers, and the combination of river flooding and tailings management facility failure poses a major threat in the region. Such an event within a country would be bad enough, but when the river crosses international borders and the event involves more than one country, dealing with the event becomes more complicated.

Szombathely

Graz

A U S T R I A

Székesfehérvár Veszprém

Zalaegerszeg n to Bala

Klagenfurt

Nere tv a

Ta mi

Tirana

Elbasan complex

Durrës

ALBANIA Taranto

Brindisi Lecce

S em

Vlorë

Assessed mining site

Serious water pollution Watershed boundary

V jo

Mining sites in the West Balkans Prioritized mining site

Pleven

B U L G A R I A Sofia

Podgarec

Korche se

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

MACEDONIA Bitola

Kavadarci

Plovdiv

Serres Kavala

G Ioannina

Kerkyra

E Larisa

A G E A N

Volos Arta

Lamia

Gabrovo

S E A

Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, March 2012. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence Sources: Zinke Environment Consulting (→ www.zinke.at) and Fluvius Floodplain Ecology and River Basin Management (→ http://fluvius.com); Site assessment conducted by ENVSEC in 2006.

Slive

Stara-Zagora Dimitrovgrad Khaskovo

Thessaloniki

Kastoria

Veliko Tŭrnovo

Kŭrdzhali

ma Stru

Potenza

Bari

Salerno

Leskovac

Giurgiu Ruse

Raz Vratsa

Nis

BUCUREŞT

Danube

ar Vard

I T A L Y

Craiova

Bardh- Pristina Novo Brdo Mirash Pernik Fushe-Arrez Kosovo* Kyustendil Podgorica Lojane Jegunovce Reps Sasa Giegan Bar Blagoevgrad Zletovo Kurbnesh Tetovo Skopje Rreshen Veles Gostivar Bucim

Manfredonia

Vidin

Suplja-Stena

Dubrovnik

Bor complex

Ploieşti Piteshti

Olt

Benevento Napoli

Stan Terg

MONTENEGRO

S Foggia

Morava

Bijelo Polje

Buz

Zeta

in a Dr

tina Ce

A Pescara

S E R B I A

Oneş

Braşov

Ramnicu Valcea

Kolubara

Novi Pazar

Mojkovac

Sfântu Gheorghe

Sibiu

DrobetaTurnu Severin

Rom

Bacă

R O M A N I A

Panchevo

Srebrenica Kragujevac

Sarajevo

Mostar

Zajaca

Tuzla

HERZEGOVINA Split

Vares

res Mu

l hu

Belgrade

Brcko

Bos na

a Un

Zadar

Novi Sad

BOSNIA AND

Jajce

Deva

Timishoara

Timok

Banja Luka

Osijek

Slavonski Brod Vrb as

Pula

Arad Tisza

Sav

be Danu

C R O A T I A

Karlovac K u p a

Subotica

Piatra Neamţ

Bistriţa Cluj-Napoca

Szeged

Pecs

v Dra

Zagreb

Ljubljana Rijeka

Kecskemet

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA Trieste

Zălau

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ADAPTIVE CAPACITY All societies have inherent abilities to deal with certain variations in climate, yet adaptive capacities are unevenly distributed, both across countries and within societies.” – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report Adaptation is a risk management strategy that intends to respond to the inevitable effects of climate change, and to enhance resilience – the capacity to respond to a change in a function or in an environmental condition by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Ecosystems with a higher capacity to adapt are less vulnerable to the effects of climate change. For regions or countries or economic sectors, the capacity to adapt similarly determines their degree of vulnerability. The West Balkan countries face several challenges to their capacity to adapt. Countries with well established, effective governance and strong, stable economies have a distinct advantage in their adaptive capacity. As the recent history of conflict in the region recedes into the past, the Balkan countries are experiencing varying levels of success in establishing effective governance and in bringing stability and growth to their economies. A country’s adaptive capacity may be evidenced at the systemic level (governance, economy), the institutional level (ministries, organizations) and at the individual level (household, farm).

All of the Balkan countries aspire to membership in the European Union, and a country’s status with respect to EU membership is an indicator of its stability. The framework for EU negotiations with the West Balkan countries is actually called the Stabilisation and Association1 process, which has three goals: → The stabilization of the countries and the encouragement of their swift transition to market economies → The promotion of regional cooperation → Eventual membership in the EU Croatia, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia all enjoy official candidate status, and Croatia is engaged in accession negotiations. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo2 are potential candidates in the earlier stages of the Stabilisation and Association process.3

1 More about the process: http://europa.eu/legislation_ summaries/enlargement/ongoing_enlargement/l14536_en.htm 2 This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. 3 Map of candidate and potential candidate countries: http:// www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-11283616

The West Balkans countries face many of the same problems on the path to stabilization â&#x20AC;&#x201C; lingering boundary disputes and ethnic enclaves, gray economies, corruption, organized crime and the effects of the global economic crisis. But each of the West Balkan countries also has its own set of circumstances and challenges. The adaptive capacity index combines social and economic measures â&#x20AC;&#x201C; income inequality, GDP per capita â&#x20AC;&#x201C; with institutional measures of voice

and accountability, political stability and absence of violence; and an aggregate measure of government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law and control of corruption. The higher scores signify higher adaptive capacity. Croatia has the highest adaptive capacity of the five countries included in the index. The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has the lowest adaptive capacity, while Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia fall in the middle. Montenegro was not included in the analysis.

Adaptive capacity index Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Serbia

Note: no information available for Montenegro.

14 Source: World Bank, 2011.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ALBANIA Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

In Albania, hydro sources produce more than 95 per cent of the country’s electrical energy, but as of 2007, only 12 per cent of the country’s total energy supply – down from 25 per cent in 2000. Overall, the share of total demand met by renewable energy including hydro fell from 42 per cent in 2000 to 22 per cent in 2007. Albania’s expected increase in long-term mean annual and seasonal air temperature and its decrease in mean annual and seasonal precipitation are likely to reduce long-term mean annual and seasonal runoff. A 20 per cent reduction in runoff is projected to cause a 60 per cent reduction in power generation. This means that while hydropower may be good for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, reliance on hydropower can increase the country’s vulnerability to climate change.

The precipitation regime is also important for agriculture, which is still the backbone of Albania’s economy. Agriculture employs nearly half of the work force and generates a considerable part of the national GDP. Emerging sectors (commerce and services) are diminishing agriculture’s overall proportion of the Albanian economy, but agriculture will continue to dominate. In the transition from communist rule to multiparty democracy, Albania has experienced major political, institutional and socio-economic changes, and successive governments have grappled with high unemployment, widespread corruption, crumbling infrastructure and powerful organized crime networks, all in a contentious political environment. Albania has an informal, unreported economic sector that may be as large as 50 per cent of the country’s official GDP. The transition from a centrally planned state to a more modern openmarket economy has been difficult, but the government has adopted a fiscal reform package aimed at reducing the large gray economy and at attracting foreign investment.

a Bijelo Polje

rnic

Mojkovac Kolasin

Vlasotince Leskovac

Berane

Rozaje

Plav

Pristina

Pernik

Vranje

K o s o v o *

Pec

Herceg-Novi Podgorica Kotor

Gnjilane Orahovac

Urosevac

Prizren

Lake kee Skadar Ska kadar

Va rd

Pc in

Skopje

Tetovo r

Lezhe

s Tre

Gostivar Burrel

Lac

Kavaje

Bulqize

Debar

Elbasan

Struga L kee Ohrid Lake O Ohrid Lake Prespa

Pogradec

Kucove

Patos Berat

Vlore

Kilkis Edessa

Gianitsa

Thessalonik

Naousa Veria

Kastoria

n mo liac Ha

Tepelene

Kozani

Katerini

Gravena

Dri

Gjirokaster

Bitola Florina

Corovode

um ica Strumica

Gevgelija

Korce

Str

Sarande

Trikala 0

75 km

Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, March 2012.

Korfu

Ioannina

Axios

ma Se

Kavadarci

Prilep

Lushnje

Fier Vijo

Radovis

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Tirana

ALBANIA

Shkum b

Kicevo

Stip

Rek a

n Erze

Shijak

Mat

Kruje

Blag

Kocani Sveti Nikole lnica ega Br

Veles

Peshkopi

Mat

Dup Kriva Palanka

ma Stru

Kukes

ja Bo

Durres

Psac

Kumanovo

Shkoder

Bar

B U L G A Kjustendil

Presovo

Ha lia cm

Dakovica

Cetinje

Ulcinj

Podujevo

Beli Drim

M O N T E N E G R O

Mitrovica

Crna

om a

Novi Pazar

Karditsa

Igoumenitsa

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

In terms of both exposure and sensitivity, the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is similar to Albania’s. The expected effects from the changes in temperature and precipitation are the same, and pose threats to agriculture, forestry, energy and water resources management. The country anticipates that the unfavourable spatial and temporal distribution of water outflows will require construction of water management facilities of considerable scale and complexity to permit the rational use of water resources and the preservation of water quality and quantity, and to provide protection from the damaging effects of water. The economic importance of agriculture and forestry, and to a lesser extent, hydropower means that Bosnia and Herzegovina is highly sensitive to these exposures. In addition, a lack of alternative employment options in communities dependent on these climate-sensitive sectors of the economy could make the problems worse.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, three levels of autonomy and up to four administrative layers make for a complex public admin¬istration system. The country lacks the management and the technological and economic capabilities to adapt to climate change at the national level, and limited public awareness and financial resources constrain the capacity for individual adaptation measures. A large share of the country’s economic activity remains unofficial and unreported. An analysis of competitiveness in Bosnia and Herzegovina found that the country ranks at the satisfactory level on only 18 out of 116 relevant criteria. Among the problems are underdeveloped and inefficient financial markets, a weak fiscal system and inadequate infrastructure, particularly in water management. The country possesses considerable water resources, and water is potentially a basis for economic development, but the existing water supply infrastructure is in poor condition and water resources are increasingly polluted.

Pecs

Subotica

V o j v o d i n a

Sombor

Osijek

Kutina

Zrenjan

Pozega

a Tis

Sisak

Dakovo

D an u

Vukovar

Slavonski Brod

Sav a

Novi Sad

Tim is

Kupa

Karlovac

Prijedor a Vrb

Bihac

Banja Luka

a San

Bosanski Petrovac

sna Bo

Doboj

B O S N I A

A N D

Jajce

Zadar

Travnik

Brcko Bijeljina Tuzla

SERBIA

Valjevo

Zenica

Dr i

Bugojno

a tin Ce

H E R Z E G O V I N A

a va ret Ne

Gorazde

l m

Mostar

Pljevla Ta ra

Hvar

N Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

Korcula

Lim

Brac

Niksic

Trebinje

Berane

Dubrovnik

Pec Herceg-Novi

E Cacak

Uzice

Sarajevo

Sibenik

Split

Belgrad

Sabac

100

150

Podgorica

200 km

(UN

Lake Skadar

D ri n

Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, November 2011.

Bar

Shkoder

A L B 55 ANIA Lezhe

Kuk

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

CROATIA Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

In Croatia, concerns about water resources extend to whether the water supply can continue to meet the ever-growing drinking water requirements. The main issues in agriculture relate to both water availability and increased temperature, and focus on the prospects of diminished water supply, the greater frequency of droughts and the effects of heat stress on animals. The tick-borne virus meningoencephalitis occurs from spring to autumn in Croatia. Warmer and longer autumns extend the period of tick activity; milder winters favour tick survival; and higher temperatures shift the altitudinal limits for tick occurrence.

Croatia still has boundary disputes with Slovenia and with Bosnia and Herzegovina, and continues to battle corruption and organized crime. It is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the World Trade Organization, and is a party to the Central European Free Trade Agreement. While Croatia has largely achieved macroeconomic stabilization, deep resistance on the part of the public and weak political support have inhibited structural reforms. Long-term growth prospects remain strong, but difficult problems – a stubbornly high unemployment rate, a growing trade deficit and uneven regional development – still remain. The global financial crisis will create significant pressure, and Croatia’s high foreign debt, anemic export sector, strained state budget and over-reliance on revenue from tourism will result in higher risk to economic stability over the medium term.

Klagenfurt

Kranj

Celje

Sombor

Virovitica

Sisak

Subotica

Karlovac

Szeged

n Da

Pecs

Zagreb

Trieste

Kutina

S l a v Osijek o n i a Pozega

Krk

Dakovo

V o j v o d

SERBIA

Vukovar

Prijedor

Cres

Bihac Bosanski Petrovac

Sav a Brcko

Banja Luka

V Pag

Zre Novi Sad

Slavonski Brod

Pula

Doboj

B O S N I A

Bijeljina

A N D

Sabac

Bel

Tuzla

Jajce

Zadar

Travnik

A d

Sibenik

Valjevo

Zenica

Bugojno

Krin

H E R Z E G O V I N A

Uzice

Sarajevo

Ancona

Hodm

Koprivnica

Novo Mesto

Istria

Kaposvar Szekszard

S L O V E N I A

Rijeka

H U N G A R Y

Nagykanizsa Varazdin

Ljubljana

Gorizia

Balaton Ba

a av

Jesenice

ITALY

Mu ra

Maribor Dr

Cac

Gorazde

Split

Brac

Hvar

S Teramo

ITALY

t Korcula

Pescara

Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

a Dubrovnik

Pljevla

Mostar

75 km

Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, March 2012.

Trebinje

Berane

Niksic

Pec

Podgorica

Herceg-Novi

Bar

Shkoder 57 Lezhe

ALB

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Agriculture and industry have been the two most important sectors of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia economy, but the services sector has recently gained prominence. Agriculture is a priority sector that accounts for a significant proportion of GDP and employment, and contributes to social security and poverty reduction. With its wide range of subnational climates, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia expects highly varied effects from changes in temperature and precipitation: projections for the reduction in effective rainfall vary from 15 per cent to 40 per cent. Of the countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s available water resources, 84 per cent are formed within its boundaries, so the country is particularly sensitive to the overall reduction in effective rainfall. Agriculture will bear the brunt of the negative consequences, and the largest effects are expected in central and southeastern parts of the country.

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has capacity constraints at the systemic, institutional and individual levels. Shortages in resources and staff are evident in the ministries for the environment and physical planning, economy, transport, health and industry. The main economic problems of the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are a low standard of living, high unemployment and relatively modest economic growth. The official unemployment rate of 31.7 per cent may overstate the case because of an extensive gray market, estimated to be more than 20 per cent of GDP. A largely obsolete industrial infrastructure has not seen much investment during the transition to a market-oriented economy. Labour force education and skills are competitive, but in the absence of adequate job opportunities, many of those with the best skills seek employment abroad. Despite making extensive fiscal and business sector reforms, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia has so far lagged behind the rest of the region in attracting foreign investment and in creating jobs.

Novi Pazar

Ibar

Polje

Vlasotince

Leskovac

Mojkovac Berane

sin

Mitrovica

Rozaje

Podujevo

Sofia

Pristina Pec

Pernik Vranje

Dr Beli

Dakovica

Orahovac

Gnjilane

rav a

K o s o v o *

Plav

z Ju

B U L G A R I A Kjustendil

Presovo

Urosevac

Prizren

Psaca Kriva Palanka

Kumanovo

der

Kukes

cin

Blagoevgrad

Str

um ic

Va rd

Va rda r

Re k

Gevgelija

Crn a

Struga

Lake Ohrid Ohrid

Elbasan

mbin

Lake Prespa

Kilkis

Bitola

Lushnje Florina

E Gianitsa

Veroia

Kastoria

Ha lia

liac Ha

hice

n mo

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo KozaniDeclaration of Independence.

Vijo s

Thessaloniki

Korce

su m Corovode

Tepelene

Edessa

cm on

Berat

Pogradec

Seres rym o

Axios

ev oll

n ma Se Kucove

Patos

Sandanski

Shku

Kavadarci

Prilep

Tirana

ALBANIA

Radovis

Strumica

Kicevo

Shijak

vaje

Debar

Stip

Veles

Mat

Bulqize

galn Bre

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Burrel Kruje

Kocani ica

Sveti Nikole s Tre

Gostivar Peshkopi

Mat

Stru

Skopje

Tetovo

n Fa

Lezhe

Samokov Dupnica

75 km

Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, March 2012.

Katerini

59 Gravena

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

MONTENEGRO Exposure

No information availble

Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Montenegro’s sensitivity to climate change is highest for forest ecosystems. Most Montenegrin forests were established by natural regeneration, and by virtue of their climate and terrain are characterized by high biodiversity. They are important producers of biomass, and are sources of fruits, medicinal herbs and mushrooms. They provide habitat for wild plant and animal species; maintain and regulate the hydrological regime; provide protection from landslides and erosion; and absorb significant amounts of carbon. Montenegro’s highly diverse ecosystems host rich flora and fauna – about 3,250 plant species, with the highest vascular flora speciestoarea ratio in Europe. Of the 526 European bird species, 297 can be regularly found in Montenegro, while about 29 other species are occasionally present.

In 2007, Montenegro joined the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, and is actively pursuing membership in the World Trade Organization. The country’s small national economy was hit by a 2009 recession caused to a significant degree by negative global economic trends including the ongoing credit crunch, a decline in the real estate sector and a fall in aluminum exports. Montenegro has privatized its large aluminum complex – the country’s dominant industry – as well as most of its financial sector, and has begun to attract foreign investment in tourism. Unemployment and regional disparities in development remain the key political and economic problems.

Cacak

Moravica

Sarajevo

Uzice

Konjic

Za pad na Kraljevo

Gorazde

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Trsten

Ivanjica

Mo rav a

Priboj

Foca

Ra sin a

Prijepolje ac Uv

Lim

Ce hoti Pljevla na

Mostar

Raska

Sjenica Ta ra

Zabljak

Gacko

Novi Pazar Bijelo Polje

Ko ma rni ca Bileca

Mojkovac

Shavnik

Ibar

M O N T E N E G R O

Dubrovnik

Plav

eta

Kotor

Podgorica Cetinje

Orahovac Rahoveci

Dakovica Gyakove

Bajram Curri

ri iD Bel

Tivat

K o s o v o *

Ce m

Herceg-Novi

Pec Peje

Andrijevica

Budva

Prizren

Lake Skadar

Shkoder

Ulcinj

a jan

Kukes

Tetovo

A L B A N I A

Va rd

Bar

Gostivar

Lezhe 0

Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, March 2012.

75 km

Mitrovica

Rozaje

Kolasin

Niksic

Trebinje

Berane

Klin a

Stolac

Peshkopi

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Kruje Shijak

Burrel Bulqize

Debar

Kicevo

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

SERBIA Exposure Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

Like most of its West Balkan neighbours, Serbia faces exposure to the hazards associated with rising temperatures. Increasingly frequent and intensive droughts over the past two decades have already caused great damage to Serbian agriculture, and crop production is expected to decline by as much as 10 per cent in second half of this century. Projections of precipitation show increases in some areas and declines in others. Serbia’s agricultural sector is an important part of the national economy, and thus increases the country’s sensitivity to climate change. Serbian agriculture employs 10 per cent of the work force, and accounts for 26 per cent of export revenues. The country relies on the sector for food security, and it is an essential component of rural development.

With unfinished privatization and incomplete structural reforms, the economy of Serbia is still in transition. The country’s economic challenges include high government expenditures for salaries, pensions and unemployment; outdated technologies; degraded infrastructure; and a low level of domestic investments. Other problems include a growing need for new government borrowing combined with rising public and private foreign debt and stagnant levels of foreign investment. An inefficient judicial system, high levels of corruption and an ageing population add to the difficulties. Serbia’s strategic location, a relatively inexpensive and skilled labour force and a generous package of incentives for foreign investments are all factors favourable to economic growth.

H U N G A R Y

Hodmezovasarhely

Szekszard

H U N G A R Y Pecs

Szeged

Arad

Alba Iulia

Subotica

Mureshu l

Sombor

Timishoara

V o j v o d i n a a Tis

Osijek

C R O A T I A

R O M A N I A

Zrenjanin

Dan ube Novi Sad

Tim ish

Vukovar

Slavonski Brod

Hunedoara

Lugoj

Petrosani

Resita Targu Jiu

Bijeljina

Sabac

Sav

Pancevo

Belgrade

Jiu

Brcko

Drobeta Turnu Severin

Valjevo

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Sarajevo

Krusevac

Novi Pazar

Dubrovnik

Mitrovica

Berane

Niksic Herceg-Novi

Pec

Podgorica

100 km

Bojana

Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, March 2012

Kukes

ALBANIA Lezhe

Sofia

K o s o v o *

Tetovo Gostivar

Pernik

Vranje

Kjustendil Kumanovo

Skopje

Blagoevgrad Kocani

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Veles

a Strum

Shkoder

BULGARIA

Leskovac

Pristina

Prizren

Lake Skadar Bar

r Isku

Trebinje

Ibar

Bijelo Polje

MONTENEGRO

Vratsa

rav Mo

Pljevla Ta ra

Montana Nis

na J uz

Lim

Mostar

Vidin

be Danu

Kraljevo

Gorazde

Bor

Kragujevac

Cacak

Uzice

Craiova

Timok

Zvornik

Morava

Smederevo

Tuzla

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Burrel

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

KOSOVO* Exposure

No information availble

Sensitivity Adaptive capacity

The effects of climate change exacerbate Kosovoâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s* existing environmental problems, particularly water scarcity and pollution, land degradation, deforestation and air pollution. Rising temperatures and disruptions in the precipitation regime are likely to intensify the stress on water resources and damage ecosystems and biodiversity. Agriculture, which comprises about 13 per cent of Kosovo* GDP while employing about 24 per cent of the work force, may suffer water shortages, heat waves and droughts. The services sector â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 65 per cent of GDP â&#x20AC;&#x201C; is less vulnerable to climate change than more resource-dependent sectors such as agriculture and energy. Lignite is a primary resource in Kosovo*, and its use for the production of electricity contributes significantly to GHG emissions, a condition that may continue as long as economic concerns have priority over environmental concerns, or until alternatives are developed.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Kosovo* lacks the institutional and financial capacity to respond effectively to climate change. In the transition from a socialist economy to a market-based economy, Kosovo* has received substantial international donor support, but the economy remains weak and unable to sustain itself. Under the guidance of the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo*, and with the assistance of international donors, Kosovo* is working to establish governmental institutions and a legal system compatible with European Union law. Kosovo* joined the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in 2009. An unemployment rate of about 45 per cent encourages outmigration and black market activity, and remittances are an important part of GDP, but the small economy with a relatively small trade sector avoided the worst effects of the global financial crisis. In fact, the Kosovo* economy grew by 4 per cent in 2009, and is expected to continue growing.

Ra sin a Prijepolje

Lim

Raska

Sjenica

Prokuplje

ca Topli r Iba

Dren

Novi Pazar

Kursumlija

A Leskovac

Lab

Ibar

M O N T E N E G R O

Mitrovica Mitrovice

Berane

Lausa

Durakovac

im Pec Peje

Plav

Klina Kline

Podujevo Podujeve

Obilic Kastrioti

Pristina Prishtine Kosovska Kamenica Kamenica

Kosovo Polje Fushe Kosova

K o s o v o *

Vranje

Lipljan Lipjan

Gjilan Gnjilane

v or a aM n Juz

m Ce

Dakovica Gyakove

Orahovac Rahoveci

r li D Be

Bajram Curri

Urosevac Ferizaj

Drin

Kacanik

Prizren

Presovo

Vitina Viti

r Klisu Kac.

Velika Krusa

e Skadar

Psaca

Kumanovo

Shkoder

Kukes

Lezhe

Saraj Restelica Restelice

cin

Ilinden

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA

Sveti Nikole

Bre

Gostivar 0

75 km

Stip

Veles

Map produced by ZOĂ? Environment Network, May 2012.

s Tre

Mat

Skopje

Tetovo Vard ar

A L B A N I A

Vlasotince

Vucitrn Vushtrri

Klin a

Andrijevica

ca tni Si

Rozaje

Kolasin

nica abla

Mojkovac

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and isPeshkopi in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

Burrel Kruje

65 Bulqize

Debar

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

Annual precipitation Croatia

Serbia

per cent of norm, 1961-1990

per cent of norm, 1961-1990 120

120

100

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

120

100

60 1970

1980

1990

2000

1990

2000

per cent of norm, 1961-1990

1960

1970

Albania

Montenegro

1950

1960

1990

2000

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia per cent of norm, 1961-1990

1950

1960

1970

1980

Bosnia and Herzegovina No data

Kosovo*

120

No data

100

80 * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

60 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: ClimateWizard, 2009.

Annual temperature Croatia

Serbia

°C

°C 12

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1950

1970

1980

1990

2000

1980

1990

2000

°C

1960

1970

Albania

Montenegro

1950

1960

1980

1990

2000

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia °C

1950

1960

1970

Bosnia and Herzegovina No data

Kosovo*

No data

11 10 9

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. 1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: ClimateWizard, 2009.

ADAPTATION IN THE REGION

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

COUNTRY PLANS Four of the six countries in this report included adaptation plans in their national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. These plans are outlines and generic statements of intent to adopt more detailed strategies related to specific challenges, and they are indicative of the direction a country is likely to follow. In the short term, Albania intends to focus on improving its monitoring and warning systems for coastal areas, agriculture and forestry. Longerterm plans contemplate participation in the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe; the construction of a range of coastal protection structures; and the development of land management strategies â&#x20AC;&#x201C; such as levelling and terracing â&#x20AC;&#x201C; together with water control measures for agriculture. Adaptation plans in Bosnia and Herzegovina centre on coping with drought. Measures under consideration include modifications in crop rotation, the application of new technologies to improve soil structure, the installation of windbreaks and the establishment of a drought early warning system. The plans also envision an information and education campaign related the public health and climate change.

The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia plans for adaptation contemplate extensive measures covering several areas â&#x20AC;&#x201C; water resources, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, public health and tourism. The water resources strategies include both structural and management initiatives. The agriculture measures include improvements in irrigation practices and the expansion of irrigated areas in combination with other changes in agricultural practices. The Montenegro adaptation plans also consider agriculture, biodiversity and public health, but have a special focus on coastal zone protection. The adaptation measures include improvements in monitoring and infrastructure, and call for the eventual relocation of 10 per cent to 20 per cent of the urbanized coastal population.

South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation Summary of proposed activities by sector Sector

Proposed activities

Public Health

• Perform regular health monitoring • Establish emergency alert systems and data sharing • Conduct impact and adaptation assessments

Water Resources

• Build or modernize irrigation systems in drought-prone areas • Build or rehabilitate flood protection and drainage systems • Expand and modernize the network of meteorological and hydrological stations • Improve national flood and drought insurance schemes

Agriculture and Forestry

• Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on planting dates and cultivars, and on yields, pests and diseases • Conduct research on the effects of extreme events on agriculture and forestry • Develop databases on droughts and forest fires

Land Use, Buildings ans Transportation

• Improve design standards for buildings • Incorporate climate change impacts information into the construction, operations and maintenance of infrastructure projects

Tourism

• Develop efficiency standards for new tourist accommodations

Coastal Zones

• Evaluate the impact of sea level rise on groundwater and water availability • Improve early warning and response systems

Biodiversity and Ecosystems

• Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on species survival, habitat composition and structure, invasive species, and seasonal phenomena • Assess climate change impacts on wetland and mountain ecosystems

Energy

• Conduct research on the impacts of climate change on renewable energy sources • Conduct integrated research on the impacts of climate change on water resources (precipitation and runoff) and energy production and consumption

General

• Organize information and awareness campaigns and training programmes • Create and develop maps • Establish early warning systems • Raise awareness • Incorporate climate change adaptation into national and urban plans

Note: Information presented in this table is excerpted from table 2 in the South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

WATER RESOURCES IN THE BALKANS Although all of the West Balkan countries have fresh water resources sufficient to meet the needs of sustainable development, climate change is expected to disrupt water regimes. As the requirements for drinking water grow, and the demands for hydropower production increase, the water resources of the region may come under pressure from users with conflicting interests. New international boundaries add yet another wrinkle. Twenty years ago the Balkans had six international river basins. Now, as a result of the new international borders, they have thirteen, as well as four transboundary lake basins. In terms of exposure and sensitivity, water resources in the Balkans are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and what happens in the water sector will influence what happens in agriculture and energy, two other highly vulnerable sectors. The implications for the development of adaptation strategies are enormous. The water resources problem is more regional than national in scale, and effective adaptation in the region cannot occur on a strict country-by-country basis. This means that the Balkan countries must work together on regional adaptive strategies, and that their capacity to cooperate on mutual problems is a major element in their overall adaptive capacity.

Szombathely

290

863

nub

v Dra 753 985 5581150 Sava

232

113

1570

157

ora

Nere tv a

MONTENEGRO

Podgorica

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

Tirana

ALBANIA 96 204

S em

V jo

Lake Ohrid 146

Discharge scheme of the West Balkans 10

100

500 1000

Khaskovo Kŭrdzhali

Prespa Lakes

Slive

Gabrovo Tundzh

MACEDONIA

Veliko Tŭrnovo

Stara-Zagora Dimitrovgrad

ma Stru

Crna

I T A L Y

350

Skopje

318 116

Sofia

Drin

B U L G A R I A

Kosovo* 320

Raz

104

rd Va

Lake Skadar 682

93 va ora S. M

Giurgiu Ruse

Danub e Tim

336

BUCUREŞT

5683

Great Morava

111

154

W. M

Zeta

342

S E R B I A

Ib a

Braşov

Ploieşti 5684

235

1722

in a Dr

tina Ce

180 231

R O M A N I A

5600 5678

395

HERZEGOVINA

is Tam

Buz

Belgrade

BOSNIA AND

Sarajevo

792 1179

Bos na

a Un

Vrb as

197

Tisza

802

R O A T I A

Oneş

Sfântu Gheorghe

2607

314

274 C

K u pa

Zagreb

Rom

Bacă

H U N G A R Y

525

168

Piatra Neamţ

Bistriţa

SLOVENIA Ljubljana

Bala

182

Zălau

Siret

A U S T R I A

Székesfehérvár (2350 Budapest) Veszprém

Evro

Graz

A G E A N

S E A

Annual mean discharge in m³/s Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, February 2012. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. Sources: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe: Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters, 2011 (→ www.unece.org/env/water); Sava River Basin Analysis Report, International Sava River Basin Commission, 2009 (→ www.savacommission.org); Jaroslav Cerni Institute (→ www.jcerni.org); Wikipedia article “Seman” on 21 December (→ http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seman); Wikipedia article “Vjosa” on 21 December (→ http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vjosa); Wikipedia article “Tisza” on 21 December (→ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza).

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

REGIONAL INITIATIVES All six of the West Balkan countries covered in this report are founding members of the Drought Management Centre for Southeastern Europe, the mission of which is “to coordinate and facilitate the development, assessment and application of drought risk management tools and policies in South-Eastern Europe with the goals of improving drought preparedness and reducing drought impacts.” These goals fit comfortably in adaptation plans, and by virtue of their participation in the Drought Management Centre the countries stand to advance their knowledge and capacity. In its national communication to the UNFCCC, Bosnia and Herzegovina makes a strong case for a regional approach to climate change adaptation, and suggests that the provision of water, energy, transport and communications is enhanced by regional cooperation. In this spirit, five of the West Balkan countries – all but Croatia – reached agreement on a South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation creating a common platform for subregional cooperation on climate change.

organizations; and improving the availability and applicability of climate modelling in the region. The plan also identifies the improvements in knowledge and capacity necessary to reduce the risks associated with climate change and to incorporate socio-economic considerations into the analysis. Most of the proposed actions in the plan are preliminary steps – information and awareness campaigns, training, research, assessment, map ping and analysis. The focus on such basic mea sures reveals how far the West Balkan countries have to go in order to develop concrete adaptation measures. A close reading of the list raises a number of questions: Who does what? How? In what time frame? At what level of analysis – local, subnational, national or regional? And how does the preliminary work, once completed, get used to develop specific adaptation programmes and projects?

The plan does not go to the level of detail of specific programmes or adaptation projects, but rather provides a comprehensive framework that the countries can follow to develop their own. It begins with the fundamentals – strengthening the systems for climate observations, monitoring and forecasting; improving the quality of data and database management; enhancing the capacity to work with the regional and international

The West Balkans are still developing their institutions, but progress is evident. All six of the West Balkan countries have participated in projects funded by the United Nations Development Programme Global Environment Facility, and as result have enhanced their capacity to manage climate change adaptation. Through the process of complying with UNFCCC assessment and reporting requirements, the countries have already demonstrated an increased awareness and know ledge of climate change. In addition, all of the West Balkans countries and Kosovo* participate in the Dinaric Arc and Balkans Environment Outlook, a platform for integrated environmental assessments.

* This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.

The South-East European Climate Change FrameÂ work Action Plan for Adaptation is a regional forum with a promising beginning, but has no institutional or political authority, and other models for regional cooperation may be able to incorporate the plan into a stronger scheme with international partners and the opportunity for significant funding. The EU Stabilisation and Association process could become the organizing focus for a regional approach to adaptation. As part of this process, the EU finances the Regional Environmental Network for Accession (RENA). All of the West Balkan countries are already engaged in the process, and the RENA structure offers a logical place for the coordination of regional adaptation strategies, but whether the EU would consider taking responsibility for the additional mission is an open question. The scheme makes more sense for the period of transition to EU membership than it does in the long run.

transboundary mountain regions. They relate more to the Convention on Biological Diversity than to the UNFCCC, but a Dinaric Arc Convention could nevertheless provide a platform for regional climate change adaptation strategies, and may be able to bring all the existing agreements together under one roof. Any new scheme designed to coordinate adaptation in the West Balkans would do well to consider the array of organizations, programmes, initiatives and agreements currently contributing to adaptation projects and strategies in the region. The idea of having one comprehensive regional adaptation mechanism may be attractive, but in light of the myriad efforts already in place, the best overall approach may emerge from a recognition of what each component can contribute to the cause.

The Alpine and Carpathian Conventions â&#x20AC;&#x201C; each of which provides a platform for cooperation for environmental protection and sustainable development â&#x20AC;&#x201C; offer a template for the Balkans, and the United Nations Environment Programme is an independent player who may be able to assist in the development of a Dinaric Arc Convention. The existing conventions and the prospective Balkan convention arose from the recognition of transboundary issues related to ecosystem protection, and all three are defined by 75

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED Croatia, with its higher adaptive capacity and lower exposure and sensitivity, is the least vulnerable country in the region, while Albaniaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s high exposure and sensitivity rank it as the most vulnerable. Each of the countries faces its own challenges with political and economic stability, demographic changes and institution-building, among others. The generally low adaptive capacity rankings reflect the difficulty of these challenges and the relatively short time the countries have had to make progress. The individual country adaptation plans and the South-East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan are promising beginnings, and participation in the Global Environment Facility, the Dinaric Arc and Balkans Environment Outlook and the EU Stabilisation and Association process are further evidence of progress.

All of this work lays the foundation for the even more challenging regional work that lies ahead. A regional strategy for the management of water resources appears to be the key to successful climate change adaptation in the Balkans. The water resources in the region have a high exposure and sensitivity to climate change, and the fates of the agricultural and energy sectors are closely tied to the water sector. In addition, the international implications of an environmental catastrophe resulting from a flood that wipes out an abandoned mine tailings facility are too serious to ignore. With so many transboundary river and lake basins, the countries of the region have the best chance of managing their water resources in cooperative fashion, whether through an existing agreement or a new one or a series of bilateral efforts.

Zalaegerszeg n to Bala

Klagenfurt

Banja Luka

Osijek

a Un

Ta mi

Belgrade

tina Ce

Sarajevo

Morava

Kragujevac

MONTENEGRO

Dubrovnik

Podgorica

Napoli

Salerno

Potenza

Taranto

Kosovo*

Tirana

Pernik

Gostivar

MACEDONIA

Lecce

Sem

Vlorë

Ioannina

Kerkyra Crotone

Kavala

Kastoria Vjo

E Larisa

A G E A N

Volos Arta

Catanzaro

Lamia

S E A

Major watersheds in the West Balkans Map produced by ZOÏ Environment Network, February 2012. * This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSC 1244 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence. Sources: Zinke Environment Consulting (→ www.zinke.at) and Fluvius Floodplain Ecology and River Basin Management (→ http://fluvius.com).

Slive

Gabrovo Tundzh

Stara-Zagora Dimitrovgrad Kŭrdzhali

Thessaloniki

Korche

G Cosenza

Serres

Bitola

Veliko Tŭrnovo

Khaskovo

Blagoevgrad

Veles

THE FORMER YUGOSLAV REPUBLIC OF

ALBANIA

Brindisi

Plovdiv

Kyustendil

Skopje

Durrës

Bari

I T A L Y

Sofia

uma Str

Benevento

B U L G A R I A

Pristina

Drin Shkoder

Bar

Pleven

Vratsa

Manfredonia

Giurgiu Ruse

Raz

Leskovac

rd Va

S Foggia

Bijelo Polje Zeta

Pescara

Nere tv a

BUCUREŞT

Danube

Vidin

Nis

Novi Pazar

Ploieşti Piteshti

Craiova

Bor

Braşov

Buz

Olt

S E R B I A

ina Dr

Bos na

Brcko Tuzla

Sibiu

DrobetaTurnu Severin

Oneş

Sfântu Gheorghe

Ramnicu Valcea

Mostar

res Mu

l hu

R O M A N I A

Panchevo

HERZEGOVINA Split

Deva

Timishoara

Novi Sad

Slavonski Brod

BOSNIA AND

Zadar

Arad

Timok

Vrb as

Sav

be Danu

Pula

Subotica

C R O A T I A Karlovac K u p a

Szeged

Rom

Bacă

Cluj-Napoca

Tisza

av Dr

Zagreb

Ljubljana Rijeka

Kecskemet

Pecs

Piatra Neamţ

Bistriţa

H U N G A R Y

SLOVENIA Trieste

Zălau

Siret

A U S T R I A

Székesfehérvár Veszprém

Evro

Szombathely

Graz

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE WEST BALKANS

REFERENCES Angelini, S., V. Re, E. Guadagno, M. Montini and F. Volpe,

Preparation of Second National Communication of Bosnia and

2012: Climate Change Adaptation in South Eastern Europe: A

Herzegovina to the UNFCCC, 2012: Available from http://www.

Background Report, in press.

unfccc.ba/en/unfccc/national-communication/snc.

Bogdanovic, J. and A. Siljic, eds, 2012: West Balkan Environmental

Republic of Albania Ministry of Environment, Forestry and

Core Set of Indicators. Geneva, ZoĂŻ Environment Network, in press.

Water

Administration,

2009:

Albaniaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

Second

National

Communication to the Conference of Parties under the United Climate Wizard, 2012: Available from http://www.climatewizard.org/.

Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Available from

Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of

http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599.

php?such=j&symbol=ALB/COM/2%20E#beg.

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007: M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson

Republic of Croatia, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical

(eds), Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press.

Planning and Construction, 2010: Fifth National Communication of the Republic of Croatia under the United Nation Framework Convention

Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report

on the Climate Change. Available from http://unfccc.int/national_

of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007: B. Metz,

reports/annex_i_natcom/submitted_natcom/items/4903.php.

O.R. Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds), Cambridge and New York, Cambridge University Press.

Republic of Serbia Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, 2010: Initial National Communication of the Republic of Serbia

Macedonia Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning, 2008:

under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Second National Communication on Climate Change. Available

Change. Available from http://unfccc.int/essential_background/

from http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/macnc2.pdf.

library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=%20SRB/COM/1%20 E#beg.

Montenegro Ministry for Spatial Planning and Environment, 2010: The Initial National Communication on Climate Change of Montenegro

Rucevska, I., O. Simonett, C. Stuhlberger and J. Bogdanovic,

to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

eds, 2007: Balkan Vital Graphics: Environment without Borders.

(UNFCCC). Available from http://unfccc.int/essential_background/

Geneva, UNEP/GRID-Arendal.

library/items/3599.php?such=j&symbol=MNE/COM/1%20E#beg. Pfeiffer, Nils, 2009: Kosovo and Climate Change: A Strategic Approach to the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference 2009. Pristina, Balkan Investigative Reporting Network.

South East European Climate Change Framework Action Plan for Adaptation, 2008: Available from http://www.google.com/url?sa=t &rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&ved=0CDgQFjAC&url=h ttp%3A%2F%2Fdocuments.rec.org%2Ftopic-areas%2FCCFAP_ Executive_Summary_final.pdf&ei= imF0T72cKcbPhAfwvsGlBQ& usg=AFQjCNFVM_W9a_Zh0WIqXKTBtvnis5Iong&sig2=Qpjfv0z5 u8ZWqmdNZAKgnQ Stuhlberger, C., ed., 2010: Mining and Environment in the Western Balkans. Geneva, Zo誰 Environment Network. United Nations Environment Management Group, 2011: Working towards a Balanced and Inclusive Green Economy: A United Nations System-Wide Perspective. Geneva, United Nations Environment Management Group. United States Central Intelligence Agency, 2012, The World Factbook, Available from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/ the-world-factbook/. Vukmir, G. et al., 2009: Initial National Communication (INC) Of Bosnia and Herzegovina under the United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change (UNFCCC). Available from http://unfccc.int/essential_background/library/items/3599. php?such=j&symbol=%20BIH/COM/1%20E%20#beg. World Bank, 2009: Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia, Washington, World Bank. World Bank, 2011: Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011, Available from http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/migrationand-remittances.