Scenario Development and Analysis Paper
Singapore Water Crisis
PLAN30001 Planning Scenario and Policy Workshop ZHIYI LIANG 1118499
Water Crisis in Singapore
Contents Introduction
2
Case Study Case #1 Case #2
3-5
Stakeholder Analysis
6-7
Influential Factors Matrix and Scenario Matrix
8-11
Scenario Plots Plot #1 Plot #2 Plot #3 Plot #4
10-11
Conclusion
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Reference
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Introduction
The pernicious issue of fresh-water scarcity relative to human demands
is evident in Singapore. The water poverty in Singapore is not due to insufficient precipitation but to limited land, availability to conserve water (Tortajada, 2006). Also, the issue has been deteriorated by overlaying adverse factors, along the lines of unprecedented population growth and consequent increasing human activities (Deng & Zhao, 2015). Singapore is pressurized to import water from Johor, Malaysia (Tortajada & Pobre, 2011). Therefore, meticulous and innovative planning is highly demanded to maintain a sustainable water supply in Singapore. This report primarily aims to propose well-founded scenarios that facilitate mitigating water stress in Singapore. Conducting preliminary research on case studies and acquiring manifestation and experience from Chennai, India, and Beijing, China, identified influential factors and predominant stakeholders who impact or be impacted by water poverty. Eventually, a scenario matrix will be created to represent the future trajectories about critical water-shortage urgency in Singapore.
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Case Study Case studies of progressing projects and perspectives from other waterstressed regions (Chennai. India and Beijing, China) do duty for inspiration in tracking future forward-looking pathways for Singapore with a similar water problem. The following case studies are the same cityscale as Singapore, which have reference value. These two case studies are intended to facilitate identifying influential factors, stakeholders, also helping to form specific scenarios for Singapore’s case.
Figure 1. Annual Average Rainfall Precipitation in Three Cities
Figure 2. Population Density of Three Cities
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Case Study 1: Insufficient water supply and difficulty of water accessibility - Chennai, India
Map 1. Location of Chennai in India
Chennai is located in the southern part of India (Map 1) within a flat coastal plain, in a tropical area with abundant precipitation. Annual rainfall reaches an average of 1541mm (fig.1). Logically, Chennai should not beset with a water crisis; however, the contextual factors result in the current drought. Chennai and Singapore are both restricted to conserve water because of their spatial disadvantages and uncontrolled climate. Vedachalam (2012) indicated that Chennnai’s rainfall collection is restricted by extremely plain terrain “with average slopes of less than 0.7 m/km”. The flat typology restrict the rainfall collection; climate exacerbates water supply’s stabilization. Chennai establishes four reservoirs in peri-urban regions, which are all rainwater fed. However, rainfall scarcity will paralyze the city when monsoons fail (Ge, 2020), leading to reservoir drain. Thus, the climate becomes the most prominently uncertain element while receiving water; this multifaced problem does not happen overnight; minimizing indeterminacy is the effort direction. The inadequate and intermittent water supply cannot catch this fourth-largest city (VEDACHALAM, 2012). The exponential population density (fig. 2) excesses the water supply capacity in Chennai. Therefore, Water Supply Department has explored desalination (CMWSSB, 2021), as Singapore PUB does also, to meet incremental water demand. Desalination, an innovative high-technical method, definitely relieves the water stress, enhancing the cost and difficulty of water access. Chennai’s follow-up policies are not active; expensive water price catalyzes illegal groundwater extraction and private sale (Sethuram, 2014). The influential factors causing water stress are similar in Chennai and Singapore. Chennai’s strategies are comprehensive, but it does not advance follow-up policies as Singapore does. Therefore, more cost-effective and locally compatible approaches are needed to innovate. Also, decreasing the level of uncertainty of driving forces is essential in both plannings. 4
Note. From Origins by Venkatesh, A., 2017, March 8, https://origins.osu.edu/connecting-history/postcard-madras-city-born-colonial-encounter. Copyright 2017 by Venkatesh.
Water Crisis in Singapore
Case Study 2: Drought on a drought-prone land – Beijing, China
Map 2: Areas Experiencing Water Stress, 2015
Beijing’s key factors leading to water scarcity are different from Singapore’s case. Beijing is situated in a northern drought-prone area (map 2) without sufficient precipitation (see fig. 1). This prerequired condition forces Beijing to heavily depend on groundwater which constitutes 68% of the total water resources (Deng & Zhao, 2015). Water poverty and inordinate groundwater extraction are worsened by population and land patterns. Beijing, the capital of China, attracts an influx of immigration. The surge in the ratio of the residential population undoubtedly maximizes groundwater depletion. Expanding urbanization inevitably equilibrates water availability threshold and human-based activity (Li et al., 2015). Both water scarcity in Beijing and Singapore is inseparable from the rapid demographic explosion and following land use allocation. In order to stabilize groundwater level, Beijing chose to transfer water from other humid regions, similarly, Singapore needs to import water from Malaysia. The national project of south-to-north diversion minimizes aquatic-ecosystem jeopardy (Long et al., 2020). Compared with Singapore, Beijing’s transferring water project is more stable and regular without worries of political conflicts. In this case, Beijing recognizes contextual factors and political advantage to propose a water-transferring project. By comparison, Singapore’s water importing project may be interrupted by international relations which is the largest indeterminacy of stable water supply; despite it is the most enormous energy to achieve self-sufficiency. Note. Adopted From Knowledge by Nunlist, T., 2018, December 11, https://www.businessinsider.com/china-waterrisk-2011-11#over-300-million-rural-chinese-have-no-access-to-safe-drinking-water-4. Copyright 2015 by World Resource Institution.
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Stakeholder Analysis
Figure. 4: The Stakeholders Involved with Singapore’s Water Crisis
In terms of stakeholders in Singapore, they can be divided into mainly four sections, Government departments, providers, influencers, and users. The governmental sectors also have different hierarchies to burden different responsibilities. From international affairs to specific waterrelated management, they are closely linked to water shortage and future supply in Singapore. Additionally, the scale of providers is broad; they are involved with offering technology, materials, and construction. Also, the influencers cover vast regions like non-profit activity organizations and collaboration with the governmental sectors. Lastly, users’ roles are unique; they are beneficiaries, also a key factor to the impact water crisis. The concrete roles or responsibilities and importance of some key stakeholders are concluded and illustrated in Table 1. 6
Water Crisis in Singapore
Table 1: The qualitative analysis of stakeholder’s role/conflict/interest/power
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Influential Factors Matrix and Scenario Matrix
Matrix 1: Importance & Uncertainty Matrix
Table 2: Analysis of Importance and Uncertainty of Key Factors.
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Water Crisis in Singapore
According to the above matrix and table, two key factors are identified and evaluated as highly significant and uncertain to generate a scenario matrix. i) ii)
Drought in Johor Water-related Technology and Management
Matrix 2: Scenario Matrix
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Scenario Plot #1 Better Together
Technology improvement and mitigating drought are key impacts of water sources. These come with rewarding and most ideal consequences in both countries. In terms of Singapore, technological advancement can gradually eliminate leaning on imported water from Johor Malaysia. Also, Johor can increase the water supply for the local residents and respond to the future, increasing population growth calmy. In the further future, Singapore can achieve complete aquatic self-sufficiency domestically, with a high-quality and steady water supply. This scenario is an ideal option.
Scenario Plot #2
Incremental Improvement The drought in Johor forces Singapore to quicken the pace of exploration of technology. The supply of imported water will gradually decrease. Also, based on the original water supply mode with imported water, Singapore needs to be more sensitive with moderately adjusting water management, like more efficient performance on recycling and desalination. Besides, Singapore will emphasize climate change which impacts the quality and quantity of rainfall to ensure the stability of this domain water source. Incremental progress on innovation and attention would be the most practical option for Singapore.
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Scenario Plot #3
Gearing Up for Drought
Water-related technology and management are stepping without any progress. Meanwhile, drought in Johor is deteriorated by influential contextual factors. They will cause the worst outcome for both Singapore and Johor. To ensure sufficient water provision for Johor’s residents, exporting water certainly will be cut off, and the loss of domain water source will lead Singapore to a devastatingly water-shortage conjuncture.
Scenario Plot #4
Maintaining Existing Mode Water-related technology and management are stepping without any progress. Meanwhile, drought in Johor is deteriorated by influential contextual factors. They will cause the worst outcome for both Singapore and Johor. To ensure sufficient water provision for Johor’s residents, exporting water certainly will be cut off, and the loss of domain water source will lead Singapore in a devastatingly water-shortage conjuncture.
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Conclusion
The future pathway of Singapore’s water is evoked by huge factors,
with water poverty, like projected population increase, and unpredictable climate, and land availability being the most predominant ones. This report portrays Chennai and Beijing's case studies and conducts deductive research to explore future options for Singapore. Additionally, four scenarios are generated with distinctive plots by identifying and evaluating stakeholders and driving factors’ significance and uncertainty.
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Water Crisis in Singapore
Reference CMSWSSB. (2021). Desalination Plant at Minjur. https://chennaimetrowater.tn.gov.in/desalination. html Deng, X., & Zhao, C. (2015). Identification of Water Scarcity and Providing Solutions for Adapting to Climate Changes in the Heihe River Basin of China. Advances In Meteorology, 2015, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/279173 Ge, K. (2020). No water – or too much of it. https://www.dandc.eu/en/article/2019-chennai- suffered-terrible-drought-after-devastating-flooding-four-years-earlier Li, E., Endter-Wada, J., & Li, S. (2015). Linkages Between Water Challenges and Land Use Planning in Megacities. Water Resources IMPACT, 17(1), 9-12. Retrieved May 4, 2021, from https://www.jstor.org/stable/wateresoimpa.17.1.0009 Long, D., Yang, W., Scanlon, B., Zhao, J., Liu, D., & Burek, P. et al. (2020). South-to-North Water Diversion stabilizing Beijing’s groundwater levels. Nature Communications, 11(1). https://d oi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17428-6 Sethuram, S. (2014). Case Study: Water Management Issues in Chennai, India. Euresian Publication, 4(6), 299-306. https://www.environmentaljournal.org/4-6/ujert-4-6-3.pdf Shao, J., Liu, J., Zhang, Q., Wang, R., Li, Z., Wang, L., & Yang, Q. (2016). Groundwater Environment in Beijing, China. Groundwater Environment In Asian Cities, 345-381. https:// doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-803166-7.00016-7 Srinivasan, V., Lambin, E., Gorelick, S., Thompson, B., & Rozelle, S. (2012). The nature and causes of the global water crisis: Syndromes from a meta-analysis of coupled human-water studies. Water Resources Research, 48(10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011wr011087 Tan, M., Juneng, L., Tangang, F., Chan, N., & Ngai, S. (2019). Future hydro-meteorological drought of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia, based on CORDEX-SEA projections. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 64(8), 921-933. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.161 2901 Tortajada, C., & Pobre, K. (2011). The Singapore–Malaysia water relationship: an analysis of the media perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(4), 597-614. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 02626667.2011.579074 Tortajada, C. (2006). Water Management in Singapore. International Journal Of Water Resources Development, 22(2), 227-240. doi: 10.1080/07900620600691944 VEDACHALAM, S. (2012). Water Supply in Chennai: Desalination and Missed Opportunities. Economic and Political Weekly, 47(23), 26-28. Retrieved May 3, 2021, from http:// www.jstor.org/stable/23214915
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