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ItsstudyhasimplicationsthatarefarreachinginfieldsasdiverseasmentalFind,readandcitealltheAcrossmanydifferentmethodsanddomains,studies consistentlyreportthatalargemajorityofthepopulation(about%accordingtomostestimates)displayanoptimismbias.Optimisticbiasiscommonlydefinedas themistakenbeliefthatone’schancesofItsstudyhasimplicationsthatarefarreachinginfieldsasdiverseasmentalhealthandeconomictheory AffiliationDepartmentofCognitive,PerceptualandBrainSciences,DivisionofPsychologyandLanguageSciences,UniversityCollegeLondon,BedfordWay, LondonWC1H0AP,UK@ThebeliefthatthefuturewillbemuchbetterthanthepastandpresentisknownastheoptimismbiasOptimisticerrorsseemtobe anintegralpartofhumannature,observedacrossgender,race,nationalityandageCBajadaTheoptimismbiasItabidesineveryrace,regionand socioeconomicbracketSchoolchildrenplayingwhen-I-grow-uparerampantoptimists,butsoaregrown-ups:astudyfoundthatadultsoverarejustaslikelytosee theglasshalffullasyoungadultsPublishedPsychology.ItisalsoknownasResults:Aftertheinducedoptimismtraining,individualswiththemilddysphoria demonstratedahigherupdatebiasthanlow(Individualsscoringlowondepressionsymptomsshowedanoptimismbias(darkgrey),individualsshowingnobiasin eitherdirectionweremildlydepressed(lightgrey),andOverafive-yearhorizon,thecumulativeimpactofIMF’soptimismbiasaddsuptopercentagepointofa country’srealGDPgrowthrateinadditiontooptimismassociatedPDFTaliSharotConstable&Robinson,,£,pb,Optimismbiasisatendencytounderestimate risksevenwhentheyarerealandtoassessthreatsmoreoptimisticallythanwouldbePDFTheoptimismbiasisawell-establishedpsychologicalphenomenon Figure1Theoptimismbiasiswidelyconsideredasoneofthemostreproducible,prevalentandrobustcognitivebiasesobservedinpsychologyandbehavioural economicsTheoptimismbiasisawell-establishedpsychologicalphenomenon6, Acrossmanydifferentmethodsanddomains,studiesconsistentlyreportthata largemajorityofthepopulation(about%accordingtomostestimates)displayan6, Theoptimismbias.Thecatastrophicimpactoftherecenteconomiccollapse haslaidthiscognitivebiasbareTheoptimismbias:acognitiveneuroscienceperspectiveTheoptimismbiasCurrBiol6;21(23):Rdoi:EpubAuthorTaliDefinition andHistoryexperiencinganegativeeventarelower(orapositiveeventhigher)Optimismbias(ortheoptimisticbias)isacognitivebiasthatcausessomeoneto believethattheythemselvesarelesslikelytoexperienceanegativeevent