Express economic almanac

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2017

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W W W . M T E X P R E S S . C O M

IDAHO MOUNTAIN

VOLUME 42

|

NUMBER 96

ONE COPY FREE – ALL OTHERS 50 CENTS

E C ONOM I C

Express 017 Summit – Overall Strategic ramework ®

AND GUIDE

ALMANAC B L A I N E

C O U N T Y

B Y

T H E

N U M B E R S

2017 SUN VALLEY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC SUMMIT

infrastructure & business pillar

What: Seventh annual gathering of Blaine County community leaders to learn, network and engage. When: Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2017, from 8 a.m. to 2:45 p.m. Where: Limelight Room, Sun Valley Resort.

social & cultural pillar

economic ecosystem

housing & accommodation pillar

Theme: “National Trends-Local Responses: Critical Factors That Will Affect Our Future Economy.” Tickets: Go to sunvalleyeconomy.org.

AGENDA 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. Registration, continental breakfast and networking.

9 a.m. to 9:30 a.m.

recreation & environment pillar

Welcome, local context and scene setting—Harry Griffith (Sun Valley Economic Development).

9:30 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. Presentation: “The Value of Arts and Culture in Blaine County” —Randy Cohen (Americans for the Arts).

Local business tied to national trends Economic Summit to take place Nov. 1 in Sun Valley By GREG MOORE—Express Staff Writer

E

ver since Union Pacific Railroad built a millionA scarcity of affordable workforce housing is a pardollar ski lodge in the central Idaho mountains ticularly acute problem in the Wood River Valley. at the height of the Great Depression, part of the “We’re looking at some innovative solutions at attraction to the Wood River Valley for both visitors and other resort towns and what can we learn from that,” residents has been its isolation. But residents need to keep Griffith said. an eye on events outside of the local bubble if they expect He said previous Economic Summits have attracted to make a decent living here. between 220 and 240 people, filling Sun Valley Resort’s Limelight Room. This year, he said, he hopes to attract Sun Valley Economic Development’s 2017 Economic Summit is titled “National Trends-Local Responses: a more wide-ranging, regional audience. Critical Factors That Will Affect Our Future Economy.” Griffith said previous Economic Summits have Harry Griffith, executive director of Sun Valley Ecohelped the area focus on subjects needed to create a nomic Development, a nonprofit organization that prosustainable economy. An emphasis on housing this year motes business and action on countywide issues, said will continue a subject highlighted at last year’s Eco“I think this is nomic Summit. the event is intended to help business owners “think more strategically and position themselves for the “By making people realize that there’s a critical a super year future.” gap in our housing inventory, we’ve been able to put in terms of The summit will feature three nationally known some focus on these projects,” he said. “It’s not going to change overnight, but we’re starting to see some speakers who will provide information on expected some really changes in the resort industry, the economic contribuprogress.” tions of the arts and resort housing challenges. He said some new middle-income housing projects motivating and “I think this is a super year in terms of some really are expected to break ground next year. innovative and motivating and innovative and knowledgeable speakers,” Griffith said the hour-long time slots allotted to each Griffith said. “They’re going to bring a lot of different knowledgeable speaker will allow enough time for audience questions, perspectives about the industry.” as will an hour-long panel discussion. He said each year’s Economic Summit is based on the “We really want to open that up for the audience to speakers.” same “four pillars” of the local economy—infrastructure ask questions and make comments and engage in the Harry Griffith and business, housing and accommodations, recreation dialogue,” he said. Sun Valley and the environment, and social and cultural ameniThis year’s event will be held Wednesday, Nov. 1, Economic Development ties—but emphasize different aspects of those each year. later than previous years’ summits, which took place Griffith said current resort-town changes nationwide in early October. The forum runs from 8 a.m. to 2:45 include the changing face of Main Street retail, a shortage of employee p.m. in the Limelight Room at Sun Valley Resort. Griffith said Octohousing and uncertainty about the future value of existing large sec- ber in the valley is getting busier, and a November date allows Sun ond homes as the younger generation seems less eager to own big Valley Economic Development to “do our part to extend the shoulhouses. der season.”

10:30 a.m. to 10:45 a.m. Coffee break.

10:45 a.m. to 11:45 a.m. Presentation: “The Resort Community of the Future” —Mark Kane (SE Group).

11:45 a.m. Buffet lunch open.

Noon to 1 p.m. Presentation: “Resort Housing Challenges: Pillows for Guests and Locals” —Ralf Garrison (Inntopia/Destimetrics).

1 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Presentation: “Blaine’s Economic Ecosystem: Constraints and Realities” —Harry Griffith (Sun Valley Economic Development).

1:30 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. Panel: “Challenges and Opportunities: Planning for Future Changes in our Ecosystem.”

2:30 p.m. to 2:45 p.m. Wrap-up and concluding remarks.


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Express

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017


Express

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

economic summit SH

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he 2017 Economic Summit will feature noted speakers who will address some of the challenges and opportunities associated with resort communities. n

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By TONY TEKARONIAKE EVANS— Express Staff Writer

Randy Cohen is vice president of research and policy at Americans for the Arts. He has spoken widely as an arts advocate. His talks and writing have appeared on C-SPAN, CNN, CNBC and NPR, as well as The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. Cohen is a noted expert in the fields of arts funding, research and policy, and using the arts to address community development issues. He recently published “Americans Speak Out About the Arts,” a national study about the public’s opinions and participation in the arts. Cohen also publishes the National Arts Index, an annual measure of the health and vitality of the arts, as well as two premier economic studies of the arts industry; Arts & Economic Prosperity, a national impact study of Ralf Garrison of Inntopia will address housing issues in resort areas at the 2017 nonprofit arts organizations and Sun Valley Economic Summit. Courtesy photo their audiences; and Creative Industries, an annual mapping study of website, SE staff have become resorts, golf courses, attraction the nation’s 703,000 arts establish- “leading experts in working with parks and tour operators. ments and their employees. mountain resorts and small-town, Well-known as a longtime indus Cohen led the development of rural communities alike.” try pundit, Garrison frequently the National Arts Policy Roundta- The website states that Kane writes and gives presentations on ble, an annual convening of leaders helps communities defined by out- travel industry trends. His presenwho focus on the advancement of door recreation, the rural lifestyle tation style has been described as American culture, launched in 2006 and tourism to “unlock and max- “data-driven, witty, occasionally in partnership with actor/activist imize economic, environmental, irreverent, but rarely boring.” Robert Redford and the Sundance aesthetic, and recreational charac- Garrison was quoted in June Institute. ter—and potential—through com- on Inntopia’s website, reporting “The bulk of my talk will be munity and land-use planning, that overall revenue from mounabout ‘The Economic Impact of permitting, and entitlements.” tain resort destinations continues Nonprofit Arts and Cultural Orga“Mark brings together deep to climb for the sixth year in a row, nizations and Their Audiences in community planning expertise; yet occupancies are down for the the Wood River Valley’ study,” an intuitive and informed under- summer, as of June 20. Cohen said. “The nonprofit arts standing of how to bring together “A booming economy has and culture industry is diverse communities for allowed lodging properties to nudge a $29.3 million induslong-term consensus and rates up for the past year, but occutry that supports 891 “A booming gain; and a profound pancy is lagging, which is unusual jobs [in the Wood River commitment to helping and in contrast to previous sumeconomy small communities find, mer seasons,” Garrison said. “One Valley].” “I will also be talking tap into, and or more culprits could be contribhas allowed articulate, about how the arts build retain what makes them uting to this trend, including rate healthier communities, special,” the company resistance, lower demand or fewer lodging socially, educationally states. available rooms during peak weekproperties and economically,” he Kane often provides ends and periods.” said. “I will also touch witness testimony In an interview, he said that “the to nudge expert on some trends in audiand is a frequent speaker nascent rent-by-owner market is ence engagement, the rates up for at conferences. He’s also proving to be more disruptive and impact of technola pioneer in the use of less understood than most any marthe past ogy and how audiGIS, computer model- ket force at play.” ences are looking for ing and digital technol- Garrison, who describes himself year, but more-active/less-passive ogies for both analysis as a “longtime friend of Sun Valexperiences.” occupancy is and engagement, using ley,” is currently working with a n these extensively in his new Visit Sun Valley destination/ lagging.” Mark Kane is direcwork and public engage- lodging research program. tor of community planment activities. In 2014, Northstar Travel Media Ralf Garrison ning and design for Founder of DestiMetrics n became the majority shareholder the SE Group, with Ralf Garrison of in Inntopia. Other partners in the an office in Ketchum. Inntopia, based in Ver- company include founder and CEO He has 20 years of experience in mont, will talk about housing issues Trevor Crist, Aspen Skiing Co. and environmental and land-use plan- in mountain resort areas. He is the Intrawest Resorts Holdings. ning and analysis. He will speak founder of DestiMetrics, a Denver- Northstar Travel Media is, about development issues in resort based travel research and consulting according to the Inntopia webcommunities. services company founded in 2004 site, “the leading provider of news, For more than 50 years, SE and recently acquired by Inntopia. information and data for the Group has provided strategic plan- Inntopia, headquartered in the travel, meetings and hospitality ning, permit consulting and design destination resort town of Stowe, industries” and parent of brands services, completing more than Vt., produces technology for res- including Travel Weekly, PhoCus2,500 projects at numerous resort ervation systems and marketing Wright, Meetings & Conventions, areas, towns and private residences. intended for destination marketing TravelAge West, Family Getaways, According to the company organizations, ski resorts, vacation Explorer and Web in Travel.

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Economic Summit speakers to address resort-town issues

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

R e s i d e n t i a l R e a l E s tat e

Residential real estate takes off in 2017 Market accelerates after dip during recession By JOSHUA MURDOCK—Express Staff Writer

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fter years of timid recov- some people who previously rented ery from the Great Reces- want some security and to buy,” sion, residential real estate he said. “It gets to the point where agents said the market in Blaine rental prices exceed home ownerCounty is becoming more robust, ship prices.” but this time it’s at a more sustain- However, Gorham said the valable rate than pre-recession activity. ley’s high-end market picked up this According to longtime Wood year, as well, but he’s not entirely sure River Valley resident and Winder- why. It could be because of increased mere Real Estate broker Dan Gor- air service, he said, a change in presham, “2017’s been a very, very idential administrations, changing good year for almost all sectors, for interest rates or something else—or starter homes to the high end. All a combination of factors. cylinders are firing right now, which Another sign of increased activhasn’t happened in eight years.” ity, Gorham pointed out, is that this According to statistics from the year’s sales by mid-September had Sun Valley Board of Realtors com- well exceeded all of 2016’s sales. piled by the nonprofit Sun Valley Residential, farm and ranch propEconomic Development, 538 single- erty sales totaled $420 million on family homes and condominiums Sept. 20, up from $283 million on sold in 2016, with a median sale price that date last year and significantly of $350,000. That’s up more than 2016’s total from 2010’s 341 sales, of $404 million. Gorham projected though the median “Five years 2017 to record $560 price was $382,000 that year. And that’s still well total residenago, it was a million below 2006’s median tial, farm and ranch sale price of $550,000. very stressed property sales, “which But 2017’s median sales is a dramatic increase economy, price as of mid-Septemover the $404 million ber was $402,500— last year … but it still overall, isn’t where the market about $52,500 more was in 2006 or 2007.” than 2016’s median, and we’re Focusing solely on and showing marked climbing out residential sales, data upward movement. Median sales prices from the Sun Valof that.” were flat as the market ley Board of Realtors was “bumping along Shannon Flavin shows the total dolReal estate agent for seven or eight years” lar value of residential during and after the sales on an overall rise recession, Gorham said, as well. Sales in 2006 but now “the inventory is decreas- totaled $466 million before dropping to $168 million in 2009. But ing and the median is rising.” That sentiment was mirrored by sales totals have generally risen Windermere agent Shannon Flavin, since then, reaching $346 million who is running for Ketchum City in 2015 and totaling $307 million Council and observed that “the in 2016, the latest year for which a market is busier this year than it total was available. has been in years past.” “Five years ago, it was a very “It is, overall, a strong market stressed economy, overall, and we’re in that there’s more buyers and less climbing out of that,” Flavin said. sellers, so you have a more stressed “So, I think we’re slowly, and in a inventory, which creates a stronger very healthy way, climbing.” position for sellers, which is why New you see increased prices,” he said. construction lags Gorham said “that’s a good thing for home ownership, but it Though residential sales became presents a challenge for those get- energized in 2017, new construction ting into the market.” has yet to do the same. According Overall, more people are making to statistics from Sun Valley Ecoless-expensive purchases, Gorham nomic Development, yearly residensaid, which could be a product of tial building permits have failed to high rent prices and low availabil- rival their pre-recession heights. In ity of long-term rentals. 2007, 665 residential building per “The lack of rentals has made mits totaling $173.6 million were

approved in Blaine County, only marginally down from 2006’s 760 permits totaling about $185 million. In those two years, permits were mostly single-family construction and some remodels, with significantly fewer multifamily projects. But by 2012, the county saw only 361 permits totaling $40 million, with only slightly more new single-family homes than remodels, and no new multifamily projects. That plummet in construction activity represented a 47 percent drop in permits and a 78 percent drop in total value. After 2012’s low point, permits rose to 462 in 2014, fell to 408 in 2015 and reached 434 in 2016, the most recent year for which Sun Valley Economic Development has data. Permits’ value in 2016 totaled $108 million, far short of pre-recession totals but more than double 2012’s low point. However, the total number of permits has not recovered as well, with yearly permits floundering well short of 500 since 2010. “The labor market is extremely tight, and the cost of building materials has risen dramatically. So, in many cases, it’s much more affordable to buy an existing single-family home than it is to buy a new one,” Gorham said. “More people would build if building costs were lower, but that’s something that’s out of our control. It’s a factor of the labor costs and materials costs.” Gorham said that’s another factor straining the inventory of available homes. He said “you could easily be into [a] property for $575,000 to $600,000” to build on a lot, but an existing home can be found for $400,000 to $500,000.

Offerings differ throughout valley However, the valleywide statement that homes are available in that price range doesn’t always apply when scaled down to individual towns, agents said. Real estate offerings from Sun Valley to Bellevue, and everywhere between, are as diverse as the towns themselves. And, while there are some mid-priced offerings in every town, agents say smaller mid-priced residential products carrying greater per-square-foot prices, such as condos in Ketchum and Sun Valley, are

Residential Markets – Blaine C Sales Specializing in Private Residences and Association Management

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residential Markets: blaine co. total sales All Residential Sales Transactions ($ & #) '16

538

'15

545

'14

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208-481-1786 sheri@bmpmgmt.com

Greg Thomas 208-481-1785

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$307,222,000 $346,314,000

456 $309,138,000 532 $252,345,000 625 $299,963,000

419 $207,378,000 341 $217,888,000 256

$168,323,000

262 $219,822,000

403

$423,389,000 $466,677,000

492 # Units

$ Market Source: Sun Valley Board of Realtors


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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

R e s i d e n t i a l R e a l E s tat e

Real Estate Real estate market is short on low-level inventory Continued from previous page

less appealing to the demographic that is shopping for something in that price range. Flavin said the valley is “still a very viable place to live. You can get a lot of house in Hailey or Bellevue for $500,000,” but Sun Valley Board of Realtors Government Affairs Director Bob Crosby observed that “on one hand, there’s availability in a price band [around $400,000] here in Sun Valley and Ketchum. The problem is the demographic we’re talking about is looking for a different style product.” Crosby and Flavin said many people shopping for a residential offering around $400,000 are more interested in a single-family home with a yard than a smaller condo or townhome. “It’s a lifestyle choice that people have: Do we want to live in Ketchum, close to the hill, close to all the mountain bike trails, all those recreational aspects that we love about Ketchum, or do we want to have a yard and space because now we have kids?” Flavin said. “A single-family lot in Ketchum doesn’t accommodate a single-family build, price-wise, because the lot’s too expensive.” However, a move southward to Hailey or Bellevue, where singlefamily homes exist for that price, is “less of a sacrifice now than it used to be,” Flavin said, because of the growth in south-valley outdoor recreation opportunities, such as Croy Canyon mountain bike trails.

Offerings don’t match buyers’ needs And that’s where the otherwise healthy market that the agents depicted displays a weakness: a shortage of what they describe as “middle-income homes” configured

such that people shopping in that price range actually want to buy them. According to the Sun Valley Board of Realtors and Sun Valley Economic Development, as of year-end 2016, Hailey and Bellevue’s supply of homes selling for less than $425,000 was well into the “unhealthy market” range, with Hailey having a 2.8-month supply and Bellevue having less than a onemonth supply. A transitioning market is considered to have between four and seven months of supply, and a healthy market has eight or more months of supply. “Hailey and Bellevue have been so far below that six-month benchmark, which is our equilibrium for buyers and sellers,” Crosby said. “For recent years, they are way below that six-month supply of homes.” Gorham said there were 73 twoor three-bedroom offerings for less than $300,000 in Blaine County as of Sept. 20, and that 18 of those were under contract to buy, leaving only 55 still available. “There’s obviously a need for more housing under $300,000,” he said. However, despite the shortage of middle-income offerings, Flavin said that “it’s more competitive than it was a few years ago, but all of my clients have been able to find something that works for them.” And things, generally, are pointing upward, the agents said. “It seems to be moving at a healthy pace. I don’t feel that we’re exploding,” Flavin said. “It seems to be moving in a healthy manner, in part due to lending restrictions and in part due to the speculative nature of people right now. People want a value.”

Sun Valley Center for the Arts 208.726.9491 | sunvalleycenter.org

residential Markets: blaine co. unit sales price Single Family/Condo Sales Prices ($000 & #) 341

$800

419

625

532

456

545

538 #

$365

$365

$350

'14

'15

'16

$600

$400

$382 $305

$265

$200

$228

$-

'10

'11

'12

'13

Average

Median

Source: Sun Valley Board of Realtors

residential Markets: blaine build permits All Residential Building Permits ($m & #) 760

665

694

520

501

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

e: Sun Valley Board of Realtors $180,000 $200,000

401

361

446

462

408

'14

'15

434 #

$160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0

Single Family

'11

'12

Multi-Family

'13

'16

Remods/Other

Source: Sun Valley Economic Development analysis

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

T O U R I S T A C C O M M O D AT I O N S

Lodging study shows accommodations lagging behind Colorado resorts

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T

he southern portion of the Wood River Valley has the bulk of Blaine County’s full-time residents, but the north valley has the overwhelming majority of the hotel and tourist accommodations. A study commissioned by the marketing organization Visit Sun Valley confi rmed those fi ndings earlier this year. DestiMetrics and Inntopia conducted the analysis, which found a total of 1,338 units and up to 5,670 pillows—a measurement of maximum occupancy—available for tourists in Ketchum, Hailey, Sun Valley and the mid-valley. The survey did not include Bellevue, and does not include shortterm rental units on websites such as VRBO, Homeaway or Airbnb. Ketchum and Sun Valley boasted 4,869 of the 5,670 total pillows, or a whopping 85.8 percent. The survey included units available for rent or reservation for less than 30 days. That includes timeshares and units offered seasonally, such as only for winter or summer. Only 24 units were timeshares. To produce the survey, DestiMetrics and Inntopia contacted 23 property management companies, including 11 hotel, motel or lodge

owners, 10 condominium or private home managers and two other property owners. It was completed in April.

Results Hotel, motel or lodge units represented a slight majority of the total accommodations across all jurisdictions, with 690 units out of 1,338, or 51 percent. Condominium units had 560 units, but had the most pillows with 2,604. Hotels, motels and lodges followed in second place with 2,332 pillows. Broken down even more, condominiums had greater capacity to accommodate families or groups of visitors. Condominiums had 4.7 pillows per unit, compared to the 3.4 pillows per unit for hotels. Private homes had the greatest capacity, with a 9.1-pillows-per-unit ratio. The survey found 75 private homes and 685 pillows. By contrast, a DestiMetrics study done for Vail, Colo., in 2015 found 3,823 total units with 17,849 pillows. Aspen had 2,091 units in a 2016 survey conducted by DestiMetrics. Breckenridge, Colo., had 3,749 units total, according to a 2016 report from DestiMetrics.

Winter outlook So, how will all those rooms be used this winter? DestiMetrics tracked lodging bookings for several ski-resort destinations in the West, and found that the winter season was off to a slow start. August bookings were down compared to August 2016, the company reported. DestiMetrics tracks bookings made in August for a trip made in December and January. Those bookings were down by 16.7 percent in December and 7.2 percent in January, compared with August bookings in the year prior, according to DestiMetrics. However, the economy continues to remain strong on the national level, leading analysts to believe bookings could pick up in the fall. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished August higher than it was a year prior, while the consumer confidence index rose again in August. Employment rose by 156,000 new jobs across the U.S. “Economic conditions are ripe heading into the fall for early winter bookings, but now the wellestablished pattern of declining occupancy is something that needs See STUDY, next page

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Units by Quality Rating 77 Units by Quality Rating Pillows by Quality Rating by Quality Rating 339 Pillows 3,000 Units as % of Overall 5.8% Units as % of Overall P155/80SR-13 Pillows as % of Overall 6.0% All-Season Traction Pillows as % of Overall 2,500 Smooth, Quiet Ride Your size in stock; call for size & price.

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Hotel

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Sun Valley

Other

Source: Visit Sun Valley & Inntopia/DestiMetrics analysis 2017

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Sun Valley Pillows by Type / Region

Condominium

Hotel / Motel / Lodge

Private Home

Other

Total


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T O U R I S T A C C O M M O D AT I O N S

STUDY to be monitored closely,� said Ralf Garrison, founding principal of DestiMetrics. Looking back, an occupancy report from Visit Sun Valley covered the six months from March to August and found that the occupancy rate for local lodging companies was 46 percent. That compares to 51.9 percent in the same time period in 2016. However, the average daily rate charged to customers increased significantly, according to the occupancy report. The average daily rate was $219 per unit in 2017, compared to $178 in 2016. The report takes data from nine properties representing 666 units in the Wood River Valley, or slightly less than half of the 1,338 total units.

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Key statistics Visit Sun Valley collaborated with DestiMetrics and Inntopia to study the accommodations and maximum occupancy for lodging in the Wood River Valley. The report tracks the number of pillows a type of lodging offers, a means of gauging maximum occupancy. The results are broken down by jurisdiction:

Ketchum Condominium: 993 pillows Hotel/Motel/Lodge: 1,112 pillows Private home: 240 pillows Other: 49 Total: 2,394

Hailey Condominium: 0 Hotel/Motel/Lodge: 611 pillows Private home: 8 pillows Other: 0 Total: 619 pillows

Unit size and quality Unit size and quality are important considerations for many travelers. Of the 560 condominium units, 30 were studios, 56 were one-bedrooms, 262 were two-bedrooms, 164 were three-bedrooms and 48 were four-bedrooms or larger. The survey used the Diamond Rated system created by AAA, which assigns a score of one to five diamonds depending on quality and extent of services. A one-diamond hotel room would be “budget-oriented, offering basic comfort and hospitality,� while a three-diamond room would be “distinguished, multifaceted with enhanced physical attributes, amenities and guest comforts,� according to AAA. A five-diamond room would be “ultimate luxury, sophistication and comfort.� The survey determined that 77 units earned one- or two-diamond scores, or 5.8 percent of the total. It found that 633 had three-diamond scores, or 47.3 percent of the total. Another 613 units earned four-diamond scores, which AAA considers deluxe. That accounts for 45.8 percent of the total units.

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Study finds 5,670 tourist ‘pillows’ in valley CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS PAGE

ď Ž

Mid-valley Condominium: 8 pillows Hotel/Motel/Lodge: 0 Private home: 174 pillows Other: 0 Total: 182 pillows

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Pasco

Lewiston

Sun Valley

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Valleywide Condominium: 2,604 pillows Hotel/Motel/Lodge: 2,332 pillows Private home: 685 pillows Other: 49 pillows Total: 5,670 pillows

Vancouver

To Anchorage

Calgary

Seattle

Spokane

WA

Portland

Pasco

Kalispell/Glacier Missoula

Lewiston

Eugene Redmond Medford

Butte

ID

OR

Idaho Falls

Boise To Tokyo

MT

Sacramento

Reno

NV

Elko

Salt Lake City UT

Fresno

Las Vegas

WY

Cedar City St.George

Burbank AZ Ontario Palm Springs Orange County San Diego

CO

NM

Tucson

Only 15 units got five-diamond scores, or 1.1 percent of the total. Ketchum had the most three-diamond units, with 434, while Sun Valley had the most four-diamond units with 468. Less than half the units supplied airport transportation. The survey found that 603 units offered that, or 45.1 percent of the total.

Alaska Delta 8QLWHG

To Puerto Vallarta

Pittsburgh

Cincinnati

WV

St.Louis

AR MS

TX

Dallas

San Antonio

LA

Philadelphia

VA

NJ

To Frankfurt

To Paris Boston

RI

New York-JFK

DE MD

NC

TN Memphis

Oklahoma City

Newark

Baltimore Wash. Dulles Wash. DC

KY

MO Tulsa

OK

Austin To Los Cabos

IL

Kansas City

KS

Colorado Springs

Alburquerque

Phoenix

OH

IN

MA CN

PA

Chicago Midway

IA

NH

NY

MI

Indianapolis

Denver

Grand Junction

Los Angeles

Long Beach

Madison

Detroit

Omaha

To London

VT

WI

Minneapolis St. Paul

SD Rapid City

NB

ME

Montreal

Fargo

MN Gillette

Casper

Rock Springs

San Francisco San Jose

ND

Helena Bozeman Billings

Twin Falls

Oakland

To Honolulu

Great Falls

Cody Jackson Hole Pocatello

Sun Valley

CA

Charlotte

Nashville

Birmingham

Atlanta

AL

GA

SC

New Orleans

FL

Houston Tampa

To Guadalajara

Orlando

Fort Lauderdale Miami

To Mexico City

To Cancun

ADVENTURE IS CLOSER THAN YOU THINK!

ACCOMMODATION MARKET: BLAINE CO. PILLOWS BY TYPE

OUR COMMUNITY INVESTMENT IN THE AIRPORT IS WORKING TOO! $35 MILLION in SUN airport improvements 7

$11.3 $198 $10

(93.75 percent in FAA grants) MAJOR runway and terminal projects in +/- 26 months to ensure FAA compliance, enhanced safety and continued commercial/general aviation air service at FMA MILLION in local impact to Blaine County from project construction MILLION in economic impact attributable to commercial and general aviation operations to SUN* MILLION terminal expansion and remodel

+ NEW CONCESSIONS + IMPROVED reliability via new instrument approach capabilities

+ IMPROVED traveler experience + IMPROVED facility for community outreach efforts like the SUN Airport Art Committee who has created a biannual rotating art exhibit within the expanded terminal showcasing artists who work, live, and play in Idaho IMPROVED facilities for Aircraft Rescue and + Fire Fighting (ARFF), Snow Removal Equipment (SRE) and FMA administration

IN THE WORKS + IMPROVED parking – better access and efďŹ ciency, additional exit lane, and automated payment

As always, FMA remains committed to being a good neighbor while providing a safe, efďŹ cient and enjoyable travel experience to all who use our community airport. * 2014 SVED study

FRIEDMAN MEMORIAL AIRPORT

Source: Visit Sun Valley & Inntopia/DestiMetrics analysis 2017

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8

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r e n ta l m a r k e t

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sk a Ketchum resident about the top issues facing the city, and affordable housing may be the first one mentioned. Five years ago, the mantra among business leaders and elected officials was helping the city’s economy overcome the devastating effects of the recession. Ketchum has, for the most part, recovered and key indicators such as employment or residential and commercial real estate prices have met—or exceeded—their prerecession marks in many cases. But now the city is confronting an affordability crunch. Rentals are in short supply and rates have steadily climbed. The number of units advertised for rent monthly has plummeted. This is a key supply of housing for the Wood River Valley’s workforce, and for younger residents who may not be able to afford to buy a home. It’s also transitional housing for new residents. The city of Ketchum helped shape some of the debate over the supply of rental housing last summer, when it released a report examining the effects of short-term rentals listed on websites such as VRBO.com, HomeAway and Airbnb. Authored by Genevieve Pearthree, an Arizona State University graduate student, the report looked at rental housing in Ketchum since the 1970s and how short-term rentals have proliferated in the 2010s. Pearthree’s research found that short-term rentals could command nightly rates equivalent to five to 10 times the amount that a long-term rental would bring in monthly. More importantly, she concluded that the short-term rentals were siphoning off units that would otherwise be available in the long-term rental pool. “Those who can’t find housing, leave,” Pearthree wrote in the report. “Companies considering relocation to Ketchum are also discouraged by unaffordable housing prices for their employees.” Pearthree completed a fellowship with the city government that lasted longer than a year, and presented her report to the Ketchum City Council in August.

New legislation The council couldn’t do much in response, thanks to a new law passed by the Idaho Legislature last spring and signed by Gov. Butch Otter.

The law prohibits any city or county from enacting an ordinance that would regulate, ban or restrict a short-term rental, except for health, safety or welfare. The law does require that the rentals remit the applicable taxes back to the local and state governments. Proponents of the law called it necessary to protect a property owner’s rights, as well as an important boost to a burgeoning industry in Idaho. Critics said it gives short-shrift to local governments’ ability to govern themselves and zone their communities as they see fit. The debate was settled in the Legislature when the House and Senate voted to pass the bill, and now local governments are considering how to implement the new law before it takes effect Jan. 1. And, short-term rentals have plenty of support in Ketchum and in the Wood River Valley. They were a popular option for tourists coming to town for the total solar eclipse on Aug. 21. They’re also popular among landlords tired of the problems associated with long-term tenants—property damage, missed rent payments and other disputes. One landlord told the City Council he was happy the Legislature tied the city’s hands in regulating short-term rentals.

Pearthree report Regardless of the politics, Pearthree’s report found that shortterm rentals are affecting Ketchum’s housing market. For about a two-month period last fall, Pearthree observed 332 unique short-term rentals listed on VRBO.com. Her research centered on examining four elements of the issue: • Analyzing the long-term trends in Ketchum’s demographics and population since 1970. • Producing a complete picture of short-term rentals and the housing market. • Analyzing the connection between short-term and long-term rental units. • Studying how other local governments have approached regulating short-term rentals. Her research drew a series of important conclusions. The dawn of the 1970s was an important era for Ketchum’s development, because it truly started to become a high-end resort community and embrace that identity. A growth

in second homes and short-term rentals followed suit, Pearthree reported. The number of second homes has risen ever since, while shortterm rentals have experienced the most growth since 2000. That leads to a stark reality—the number of permanent residents in Ketchum has declined since 2000, according to Pearthree. “The sense of community, tradition and history that are Ketchum’s will be lost,” she wrote. “When those properties are used as shortterm rentals, they are no longer available for long-term rental or owner occupancy.” Relying on U.S. Census data, Pearthree wrote that second homes have driven up home prices. “Demand for second homes has raised the median single-family home price to more than $1 million in 2016, a price far beyond the means of most Ketchum residents,” she wrote. Her research concluded that Ketchum had 471 short-term rentals on the market earlier this year, which accounts for 12 percent of the citywide supply of 3,857 units. In 1970, Ketchum had 882 housing units. By 2015, that figure had grown to 3,827. The city’s population peaked at 3,003 residents in 2000, but dropped by 275 residents in the 17 years since then. In 1970, 31 percent of the homes were unoccupied for part of the year. That figure was 59 percent in 2015. The number of seasonally vacant homes increased from 678 in 1990 to 1,975 in 2015, an increase of 190 percent. She concluded that low- to moderate-income households bear the brunt of these consequences via higher rent payments and longer odds to afford to buy homes. Other workers will be forced to commute long distances to get to their jobs in Ketchum. “Commuters pay lower housing costs but pay higher transportation costs in the form of fuel, insurance, automobile maintenance and time spent waiting in traffic,” Pearthree wrote. “Furthermore, all Wood River Valley residents suffer from increased air pollution.”

Countywide look Sun Valley Economic Development conducted its own analysis of the countywide housing stock and utilization rates this year. The organization analyzed the total number of units across Blaine See Rental, next page

housing & accommodation framework Blaine Co. Housing & Accommodation Mix Matrix

Owner Occupied

AH

Seasonal

ADU*

Rent Paid

+

RBO

Note: Relative size of above blocks represents relative Unit Utilization

*Accessory Dwelling Units

+Rental By Owner

AH

Key

~Heads ~Unit ~ # Units Per Unit Utilization

Owner Occupied Housing Stock

5,884

2.35

13,827

Seasonal/Vacant Housing Stock

6,185

4

24,740

Rental Housing Stock

3,040

2.35

7,144

Paid Accommodation

1,338

4.2

5,620

Rental By Owner (RBO)

500

na

na

Affordable Housing (AH)

545

na

na

Totals: 16,947 units

51,331 pillows

Source: Sun Valley Economic Development analysis 2017


Express

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

9

r e n ta l m a r k e t

Rental Valley rental units becoming fewer, costlier

Long-Term Rental Markets: blaine co. advertised prices 1 Bedroom Units Average Advertised Price

Continued from previous page

County, and broke them down by category. The SVED analysis found a total of 16,947 housing units in Blaine County this year, across all jurisdictions. Of those, 5,884 units were owner-occupied, according to the analysis. Another 6,185 units were seasonally occupied, while 3,040 were included in the rental pool. The analysis found that there were 1,338 units of paid accommodation, such as hotel rooms and property-management-companycontrolled condos, townhomes and singlefamily homes. Based on preliminary analysis, there are approximately 500 short-stay units for rental by owner. The county has 545 units of subsidized, deed-restricted affordable housing. The number of available long-term rentals has dropped every year since 2012, according to the Blaine County Housing Authority. The BCHA analyzes the number of rentals listed as available in the Idaho Mountain Express and other listing websites each month. In 2012, across all rental categories and jurisdictions, more than 50 rentals were being advertised every month. That figure had dropped below 20 per month by 2016, according to BCHA. Fair-market rent has also climbed in Blaine County. The rent was $888 per month in 2012, but increased to $921 per month in 2013, $926 per month in 2014, $947 per month in 2015 and $963 per month in 2016. Fair-market rent is a federal calculation that measures the gross rent for a typical rental unit in defined areas in the United States. Gross rent includes the rent paid to a landlord, as well as utility costs borne by a tenant. Idaho’s fair-market rent has hovered between $612 and $674 per month over that time period. Affordability is a huge concern, according to the BCHA analysis. Of the county’s 3,040 rental units, 27 percent, or 831 units, house people spending more than 35 percent of their household income on rent. That qualifies them as housing burdened. National and state standards call for renters to spend less than one-third of their take-home pay on rent each month, or else they will struggle to afford costs such as food, transportation, utilities, child care, education and other expenses. In Ketchum, that situation becomes tougher because low-income residents may not qualify for federal housing assistance programs due to the area’s high income. “Federal funding does not adequately address unaffordability in Ketchum,” Pearthree wrote. “Federal assistance is not widely available because median household income is artificially high; affluent residents that receive income from investments inflate this benchmark, which is problematic for many residents that rely on wage income alone.”

$1,200 $1,000 2012

$800

2 Bedroom Units Average Advertised Price

2013

$600

2014

$400

2015

$200

2016

$0 Ketchum

Sun Valley

Hailey

Bellevue

Blaine County

$2,000 $1,500

2012 2013

$1,000

2014 $500

3+ Bedroom Units Average Advertised Price

2015

2016

$0 Ketchum

Sun Valley

Hailey

Bellevue

$3,000 $2,500

Blaine County

2012

$2,000

2013

$1,500

2014

$1,000

2015

$500

2016

$0 Ketchum

Sun Valley

Hailey

Long-Term Rental Markets: comparative fair market rent

Bellevue

Source: Blaine Co. Housing Authority

Blaine County

Fair Market Rent ($/mo) $1,200

$1,000

Source: Blaine Co. Housing Authority & U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development

$963

$947

$926

$921

$888

$800 $674

$661

$656

$612

$658

$600

$400

$200

$2012

2013

2014 Idaho

Long-Term Rental Markets: rental affordability

2015

2016

Blaine Co

Blaine Co. Gross Rent as % of Household Income Not specified

Source: American Community Survey 2009-15 5-Yr

Source:>35% Blaine Co Housing Authority & U.S. Department of Housing & Urb 25-29.9%

20-24.9%

You can read a copy of Genevieve Pearthree’s report on shortterm rentals online at the city of Ketchum’s website. The report can be viewed at ketchumidaho.org/ documentcenter/view/5481.

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30-34.9%

Read the report

15-19.9%

<15% 0

100

No. of units

60.0

50.0

40.0

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Facts/Analysis: • Total of 3040 Rental Housing units in Blaine Co Adspaying per month - All Blaine Sizes • 27% or 831Rental units more then Co/All 35% Unit of household income are rent bu Long-Term Rental Markets: Blaine Co. Rental Ads per Month Source: Blaine Co. Housing Authority

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0 2012

2013

2014 Ketchum

Sun Valley

2015 Hailey

Bellevue

2016


10

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

demographics

Who we are in Blaine County Wealth and ethnicities vary by city

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By TONY TEKARONIAKE EVANS—Express Staff Writer

T

he 2017 Economic Summit on Nov. 1 will address the critical factors that affect our future, tying in national trends to local circumstances and potential responses. Even in a tourist-based economy, viability depends on local people of all ages and backgrounds to thrive. Some are successful and/ or retired, while others are still working. Their kids will need jobs and housing. The Idaho Mountain Express recently reported on a labor shortage in the Wood River Valley. Business owners and developers need to know who they can depend on as employees as well as clients, and whether the area’s overall demographics will support sustained growth. Blaine County extends across 2,664 square miles in southern Idaho, with towns in the Wood River Valley and Carey. Population growth and ethnic diversity in these cities have changed considerably since 2000.

Population Blaine County’s population in 2015 was 21,592, with recent growth focused in the southern Wood River Valley. Since 2000, the population in Sun Valley, Carey and the unincorporated areas of Blaine County has remained relatively stable, with the largest increases taking place by 2010. By contrast, the Ketchum population has dropped by about 300 people since 2000, to a population of 2,706, while the population in the southern cities of Hailey and Bellevue has been growing steadily. “This tells us a lot about housing costs,” said David Patrie, the owner of Sawtooth Strategies LLC and a consultant who helped compile data for the Economic Summit. “Homes are cheaper in the south valley. A lot of people have also settled in Hailey because that’s where the schools are and where their other social networks are.”

Age by city Old-timers abound in Sun Valley and Ketchum, with nearly 35 percent and 25 percent, respectively, over age 64. The rural community of Carey also has a relatively high percentage of older people, about 15 percent. By contrast, the south-valley towns have the highest concentration of residents under age 20, with Bellevue topping the list at 38 percent, or about 1,000 residents. Hailey and Carey are about equal at 28 percent, totaling 2,375 youngsters. The percentage of people in the 20- to 34-year age range is fairly consistent throughout all towns, with numbers ranging from 134 in Carey to 1,447 in Hailey. Ketchum has 549 people in that “millennial” group and Sun Valley has 234. The highest percentage of mature, working-age people in Blaine County, ages 35-54, reside in Hailey and Bellevue, totaling 3,335 men and women. The north-valley towns of

Ketchum and Sun Valley have only 634 in that category. The overall demographic numbers, as well as observed traffic flows, show that a great many residents in the Wood River Valley travel north each morning to jobs in Ketchum and Sun Valley. Patrie said the high concentration of older people in Sun Valley and Ketchum reflects the fact that the south-valley towns are less “resort-oriented.” “South-valley towns have many education, government and privatesector jobs. The north-valley economy tends to revolve around the Sun Valley Resort or other recreation jobs,” he said. “Those who can live in a resort area tend to be older and have more time and money,” Patrie said. “The type of homes that are built in Sun Valley are designed to attract a wealthier demographic.”

Ethnicity The Latino community made up about 20 percent of the population of Blaine County in 2010. About 40 percent of the county student population is Latino today. This segment of the population comprises a vital segment in the labor and services industries, as well as a growing number of new business owners. “It’s important to know who we are as a community,” Patrie said. “We also know that today’s laborers are tomorrow’s business owners.” Bellevue has the highest concentration of Latinos, at 32 percent, or 851 people. Hailey, with its much greater overall population, has a total of 2,355 Latinos, but a lower concentration, about 28 percent. Ketchum and Sun Valley could be called the “whitest” communities, both with 5 percent Latino populations, or 95 total individuals. Carey’s Latinos represent 12 percent of the overall population in that town, or 65 individuals. Sun Valley is also quite ethnically diverse, with 10 percent, or 124 individuals, identifying as “other” than white or Latino.

Household income Sun Valley and Hailey have the highest percentage of high-income households, with 45 percent and 37 percent, respectively, earning more than $75,000 per year. The percentage of far more affluent secondhome owners in that category is not represented in the data. Bellevue has the highest percentage of residents making under $25,000 per year, 22 percent, or 195 homes. Ketchum and Hailey are nearly equal in this low-income category, at about 17 percent. Interestingly, the rural farm area of Carey and the upscale resort town of Sun Valley have about the same percentage of low-wage earners (under $25,000 per year), about 15 percent. “It’s easy to assume that everyone in Sun Valley or Ketchum is rich, but this is not the case,” Patrie said. “That’s why it’s important to do the numbers.” See Demographics, next page


Express

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

11

demographics

Demographics Demographics tell story of Blaine communities Continued from previous page

demographics: ethnicity by city Sun Valley

Authorized FedEx Discount ShipCenter Ketchum White

Hailey

Latino Other

Carey

Bellevue 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2015 5-Yr

demographics: population by city 25,000

20,000 Blaine County

15,000

Sun Valley Ketchum Hailey

10,000 Source: American Community Survey 2009-2015 5-Yr

Carey Bellevue

5,000

'70

'80

'90

'00

'10

'15

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2015 5-Yr

demographics: age by city Sun Valley

(Median: 56.7)

Ketchum

(Median: 51.4) <20 yrs

20-34 yrs

Hailey

35-54 yrs

(Median: 37.4)

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2015 5-Yr

55-64 yrs >64 yrs

Carey

(Median: 38.1)

Bellevue

(Median: 30.1)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2015 5-Yr

Median in Ketchum now close to SV

demographics: household income distribution by city Sun Valley

Ketchum

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2015 5-Yr Hailey

Ketchum Auto Inc

<$25k $25-50k $50-75k >$75k

Carey

RYAN DEAN OWNER

208-726-8259 208-726-0995 fax

Bellevue 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Source: American Community Survey 2009-2015 5-Yr

360 10th Street PO Box 1779 Ketchum, Idaho 83340

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12

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

COMMUNITY HOUSING

Low-priced homes aren’t sufficient for county workers By JOSHUA MURDOCK—Express Staff Writer

N

ot only does Blaine County suffer from a shortage of middle-income-priced homes— that is, properties selling for less than $425,000 and often around $300,000—but many workers in the county are far from being able to afford a home at all, and they are faced with even fewer options. “There’s no secret that we don’t have enough housing,” Sun Valley Economic Development Executive Director Harry Griffith said during the presentation of an annexation request for a proposed development in Bellevue on Sept. 20. “There is significant demand in the employment community … that are being constrained in growing their workforces and adding to their business because of the lack of affordable housing. ‘Where do my employees live?’ That’s a problem that we don’t have an answer to.” But while there’s a lot of talk surrounding middleincome housing, such as the development proposal in Bellevue, Blaine County Housing Authority Executive Director Nathan Harvill said, there’s not nearly enough discussion about affordable housing—deed-restricted properties with lowered rents or prices that can only be rented or purchased by people with low-enough income to qualify. So too is there not enough discussion on what’s actually affordable for the county’s workers. That creates a blind spot in the county’s overall discussion on “workforce housing,” a term Griffith said encapsulates both middle-income housing and affordable, or deed-restricted, housing. “What I’ve noticed is that I’m not seeing a lot of housing that’s accessible to people who do the majority of the work within the region, and I think there are some opportunities to have a broader discussion about what’s affordable here,” Harvill said. Among workers in the service and hospitality industries, he said, “you’re not going to find people in those industries who are searching for a $300,000 house.” Since moving from Tulsa, Okla., to begin leading the Housing Authority in August, Harvill said he’s been poring over data on Blaine County from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and state and local agencies and organizations. “They’re all in agreement that housing in this area is not affordable,” but data and opinions diverge when it comes to determining at what point housing becomes affordable, he said.

Wages don’t cover housing Harvill said the county needs to assess “who are we trying to make housing available for?” “In this area, we’re talking about firefighters, policemen, teachers and working professionals, who, because of what they’re paid, don’t make enough to be able to afford a house,” he said. Harvill shared data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that the projected average annual wage for a Blaine County worker is about $47,800, a figure that was extrapolated from first-quarter 2017 data for individual workers. Complete 2016 data, adjusted for inflation, showed average yearly earnings of about $48,900 for an individual Blaine County worker. While it’s great to build middle-income homes with the goal of attracting new businesses and their employees, he said, that’s “chasing a fantasy” compared to providing for the needs of workers already living in the county who find themselves underserved by available housing. “The crisis is for people who live here right now,” he said, adding that the entry-level rung on the housing ladder is “a little bit lower than what we think it is.” Harvill said individuals and households should spend no more than 30 percent of their income on housing, and Sun Valley Economic Development classifies anyone paying more than 35 percent of earnings on rent as “rent burdened.” That means that the average Blaine County worker should be spending no more than about $1,200 on housing each month. Service-industry workers, of which there are about 9,000 in the county, make an average of about $38,000 each year and should spend no more than $950 on housing per month. The county’s

HOUSING COSTS IN BLAINE COUNTY WORKFORCE MIDDLE-INCOME HOUSING HOUSING $1,250 $171,000 a month to own

$1,775

$241,000

$2,350

to own

a month

a month

$71K+

30 years old

$2,750

$416,000

a month

to own

$171K+

$94K+

$50K+

Age 25 years old

$321,000 to own

35 years old

40 years old Source: Department of Housing and Urban Development/Bank Metrics

Annual income

Growing Debt

Maximum Rent

3,700 leisure and hospitality workers make an average of $24,500 a year, meaning they should spend about $600 on housing each month, “And I don’t see anything like that around Ketchum,” Harvill said. Data from Sun Valley Economic Development show that the inventory of affordable-housing units in Blaine County has nearly flatlined since 2010, with the 524 units available that year marginally increasing to 545 by 2017, but Harvill said it’s unclear how many units, if any, are available. The last major addition was 61 new units in 2010. Before that, it was 208 new units in 2002, which brought total units at that time to 412. Of those 545 units, 444, or 81 percent, are rentals. The largest project was the Balmoral development in Hailey, which added 192 units. A total of 38 projects have been completed since 1980, with a median of four units per project. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are about 12,500 workers in Blaine County. “Workforce housing is not $400,000 for a house,” Bellevue City Councilman and business owner Shaun Mahoney said at the annexation request presentation in September. “$400,000 is not affordable housing.” Mahoney said his employees have struggled to find housing in the Wood River Valley, typically having no luck with long-term rentals and instead opting to commute as much as 90 minutes each way from towns outside the area. And that experience is emblematic of Harvill’s suggestion to recalibrate the area’s perception of “affordable.” “No one really talks about rental housing … just getting people into a place to live,” he said. Harvill shared data showing that Blaine County’s average hourly wage of $23.01 across all workers in 2017 is significantly less than the $26.20 wage required to afford the median two-bedroom residence advertised in Blaine County. And that required wage is significantly greater than the Department of Housing and Urban Development’s calculation that a two-bedroom residence at fair-market rent in Blaine County should only require a wage of about $17 per hour. And even more concerning, Harvill said, is that the average Blaine County renter’s hourly wage is even lower than that, coming in at $13.75. According to American Community Survey data from 2009-2015 compiled by Sun Valley Economic Development, about 27 percent of renters in the county are rent-burdened, spending more than 35 percent of their income on housing.

High failure rate among affordable housing While affordable housing has been added to the county’s market in intermittent spurts, a greater number of sizable proposed projects have either failed to be completed and were built but not as affordable units. According to Sun Valley Economic Development, 14 proposed affordable-housing projects totaling 323 deed-restricted units have failed to be delivered since 1990—and the failure rate is rising, with 122 undelivered units from six failed projects in the past seven years. Reasons for project failure are diverse, including lack of affordable land, lack of funding or investors, the Great Recession and a stigma against affordablehousing projects, including lawsuits from neighbors. “It’s the NIMBYism that really hurts it,” Harvill said, referring to a “not in my backyard” mentality toward affordable housing. “You do have to kind of break down the stereotypes.” Additionally, he said, non-deed-restricted, yet lowpriced, long-term rentals and homes are often purchased for conversion into more profitable ventures, such as second homes or high-end vacation rentals. See COMMUNITY, next page

Maximum Home Price

WORKFORCE HOUSING: AFFORDABLE HOUSING PROJECTS DELIVERED BY YEAR Number of New Affordable Housing Units 600

500

400

300

200

100

0

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Valley has a blind spot in workforce housing

New Ownership & Rental Units

Cumulative # Units

Source: Sun Valley Economic Development analysis

WORKFORCE HOUSING: BLAINE CO. RESIDENTIAL BUILD PERMITS BY PRICE RANGE & LOCATION Number of New Residential Units Permitted by Location

(Total 2011-16)

90 80 70 60 50 40 30

20 10

0 Belllevue

Carey

<$250k

Hailey

Ketchum

$251-499k

$500-749k

Sun Valley

$750-999k

UBlaine

>$1m

Source: Sun Valley Economic Development analysis

WORKFORCE HOUSING: AFFORDABLE Source: Sun Valley Economic Development analysis HOUSING PROJECTS NOT DELIVERED Affordable Housing Units NOT Delivered Bigwood Quail Creek 2 Old Cutters

2010’s

Evergreen Apts.

Washington Place Agave Place 6th and Leadville Old Visitor Center

2000’s

Quail Creek 1 Thunder Spring Bavarian Village East Fork Fire Station

1990’s

North Fork Trailer Park Manookian 10

20

30

40

50

60

Source: Sun Valley Economic Development analysis

WORKFORCE HOUSING: BLAINE CO. RESIDENTIAL BUILD PERMITS BY PRICE RANGE

Source: Sun Valley Economic Development analysis Number of New Residential Units Permitted by Year 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2011

<$250k

2012

$251-499k

2013

2014

$500-749k

2015

$750-999k

2016

>$1m

Source: Sun Valley Economic Development analysis


Express

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

13

COMMUNITY HOUSING

COMMUNITY Some community-housing projects have failed CONTINUED FROM PREVIOUS PAGE

The valley, Harvill said, needs to diversify its housing by adding more long-term rentals that workers can afford. Plus, in the event of another economic downturn, falling wages and cautious lending will push more people into long-term rentals, and a community without many available will suffer.

Low-priced houses offer little relief Even workers who can afford a middle-income home are hardpressed to find one for sale or that meets their needs. According to the Sun Valley Board of Realtors and Sun Valley Economic Development, Blaine County as a whole has 4.7 months of supply of homes selling for less than $425,000. Anything less than a four-month supply is considered a sign of an unhealthy market; four to seven months of supply is a sign of a transitioning market and an eightmonth supply or more is a sign of a healthy market. Individually, Sun Valley has an 8.6-month supply of such homes, slightly into the healthy market range. Ketchum has 5.9 months of supply—a transitioning market— and Hailey and Bellevue have 2.8 months and 0.9 months of supply, respectively—both unhealthy. However, real estate agents have observed that the large supply of middle-income properties in Ketchum and Sun Valley are almost exclusively condos and townhomes—often used as vacation properties—and not the types of properties families and workers are looking to purchase. Those properties, typically single-family homes with yards, are primarily in Hailey and Bellevue. And there are very few of them. According to Sun Valley Board of Realtors data compiled by Windermere Real Estate broker Dan Gorham, there were 73 two- or three-bedroom offerings for less than $300,000 in Blaine County as of Sept. 20, and 18 were under contract, leaving 55 still available. Gorham showed that for properties less than $500,000—the absolute upper limit for what’s considered workforce housing— and with two or three bedrooms,

the median sale price dropped from $289,000 to $282,500 from 2006 to 2017. However, in 2006, only 131 such properties sold by Sept. 20, with properties taking an average of 269 days to sell. By Sept. 20, 2017, 279 properties of those criteria had sold, with an average of only 174 days on the market, illustrating that such units are being snapped up faster than in 2006.

Hailey’s monopoly on inexpensive homes But more middle-income homes are being built in the valley, with 2016 seeing 20 permits for homes less than $250,000 and 19 permits for homes between $250,000 and $500,000. That’s a marked increase from 2011, which recorded only five permits total for homes less than $500,000, three of which were under $250,000. But since 2011, nearly all those homes have been built in Hailey, with the town becoming home to 78 new units less than $250,000 and 52 between $250,000 and $500,000. Bellevue recorded six and 10 permits for those respective price ranges during that time, and unincorporated Blaine County recorded 11 and 20 permits, respectively. In contrast, Sun Valley saw one permit in each of those price ranges during the five-year span, and Ketchum had one permit for a unit less than $250,000 and 12 permits for units between $250,000 and $500,000 during that time, but those were mostly, if not entirely, condos and townhomes, real estate agents said. However, permits for 77 units each greater than $1 million were issued between Ketchum and Sun Valley during that time, as well as 34 permits for units between $750,000 and $1 million and 29 permits for units between $500,000 and $750,000. Unincorporated Blaine County saw 30 permits for units between $500,000 and $750,000, 17 permits for units between $750,000 and $1 million, and 52 permits for units greater than $1 million during that time. “Idaho’s a very affordable state, but Blaine County is not,” Harvill said.

WORKFORCE HOUSING: MONTHS OF SUPPLY WITH SALES VALUES <$425K 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Healthy Market

8.6

Transitioning Market 5.9 4.7

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

business and economy

The state of Main Can valley Main Streets adapt to a changing economy?

D

owntown Hailey hides its history in plain sight. Take the Barkin’ Basement Thrift Store, its cartoon sign immediately below the arcing words “J.J. Tracy Druggist,” a longago tenant reduced to vaporous white lettering against the building’s russet paint. Or the Public Library next door, red brick inscribed with the white words “J.C. Fox, 1920.” In the intervening century, the building has housed a saloon, a bank, a 10-room hospital presided over by Dr. Fox himself and, on the upper floors today, the city’s staff offices. From her window inside, Hailey Community Development Director Lisa Horowitz can look across south Main Street onto a marquee with nothing to tout but the building itself: The Mint—For Sale With Liquor License. Once a nightclub owned by actor Bruce Willis, the building—all 15,000-plus square feet of it—has been on the market for the better part of a decade. The marquee advertises the nightclub’s name in gold-tipped lettering, but the coming-attractions spot remains blank. Yet up and down the street, new developments—a bank, a mixed-use site and soon a Marriott—are going up next to empty lots and vacant buildings. Eight years after the official end of the Great Recession, downtowns nationwide are still adapting to shifts in spending, some temporary, others potentially tectonic. Towns in the Wood River Valley are no different, reflecting these national trends and, at varying rates, changing in kind. “We always see a lot of activity along Main Street, with businesses opening, closing or moving,” Horowitz said. “I don’t know what I can say about Hailey that’s not going to reflect what’s going on throughout the entire country.” With the economy steaming ahead, it’s clear that there’s money out there. Countywide, revenues have risen from their 200910 pit. The question is: Where’s that money going? And how can businesses channel it back to the traditional hub of small-town life, Main Street? Just look for the faded signs, and you’ll see how Hailey has adapted before. Even The Mint, before it was a nightclub, was a dive bar; before that, an insurance agency. Perhaps the new signs along state Highway 75 can shed some light on where the towns that hedge the road are headed next. “Everyone wants a vibrant downtown,” Horowitz said. “But cities across the country are asking the same questions about how to achieve that, and what it might look like.”

A ‘king’ in the jungle You don’t have to venture far from Horowitz’s office to get a glimpse of what it won’t look like. Just head a half-mile up Main Street. There, you’ll find the empty shell of King’s Variety Store, once a modern take on a chain five-and-dime. At over 11,000 square feet, King’s carried everything from toys to school supplies, hardware to arts and crafts. King’s shut down all its 19 stores in May, shaved too thin by cheaper alternatives online. “Anyone with a computer can buy from millions of vendors around the world,” the company said through a statement in February. “Brick-and-mortar stores need feet and faces to survive as we have salaries, rents and other costs to cover. Unfortunately for us, that is not the current landscape.” That landscape, as it has for nearly two decades, is increasingly digital. For retailers it’s only trending faster in that direction. During the second quarter of 2017, nearly 9 percent of all retail purchases (excluding food services) were made online—about $111.5 billion worth, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That’s up more than 16 percent from the year before, a growth rate four times higher than that of brick-and-mortar sales.

By MARK DEE—Express Staff Writer

Nine percent hardly sounds like the death of traditional retail. But consider that most big-ticket items—cars, equipment, etc.—are made in person, and the share of consumer goods bought online is likely much higher. Over the past 10 years, the percentage of purchases made online has increased by 163 percent—and that rate is accelerating. Perhaps it’s not surprising that during that same period, Amazon, the internet’s largest retailer, has seen revenues balloon from $2.89 billion to $37.96 billion. “I know people who are buying toilet paper online,” said Jeff Bacon, executive director of The Chamber, the valleywide chamber of commerce. “As a community, we have to decide if we want to have retail in the valley in 10 years, or not. And if we do, we’re going to have to support it.” It can be tricky to put a figure on online purchasing locally—neither websites nor shipping companies release detailed records for specific locales—but it’s safe to say that numbers are up, according to Harry Griffith, executive director of Sun Valley Economic Development. “On a given day last summer, you’re seeing an increase from 2,000 packages a day to over 3,000 packages per day” at the UPS processing facility in Hailey, he said. “That’s on top of a double-digit increase over each of the past three years.”

Leather couches next to shelves lined with silver-plated antlers. Mid-century furniture poised above ottomans shaped like angora rabbits that swallowed truck tires. In back, a separate building houses owner Marina Broschofsky’s interior design studio. That mix of eclectic offerings and professional expertise is tough to replicate online, where you’re only likely to find exactly what you search for. “People often come in just because they’re curious, or they were sent in by a friend,” Broschofsky said. “But once they’re here, they realize that we sell more than furniture— we have gifts, candles, jewelry, all sorts of things.” More often than not, someone walks out having bought one of those knick-knacks. It’s the furniture store equivalent of someone coming in to look at skis, and realizing that they need socks; the adjacencies of the store— combined, ideally, with the expertise of the staff—drives customers to purchase something they didn’t know they were looking for. Customers at the Red Door, where a couch can cost as much as a used Corolla, probably don’t overlap a lot with those who shopped at a store like King’s. In the absence of a lowprice option, those people either buy online themselves or flock to Twin Falls, where the same thing’s likely to happen. “There’s a compounding effect,” Bacon

Stand at the south end of Ketchum’s Main Street and it’s abundantly clear. On your left, there’s the Limelight Hotel, less than a year old. On your right, the planned site of the Auberge Hotel. Five blocks away, the new Hotel Ketchum is emerging from the gutted bones of the Bellemont. That doesn’t even consider the 75-room Fairfield Inn and Suites approved in Hailey, or the 56-room Silver Creek Hotel that opened over the summer on north Main in Bellevue. “Historically, what happens here is that Ketchum gets busy first—then Hailey, then Bellevue,” said Paul Kenny, of Ketchum-based Paul Kenny and Matt Bogue Commercial Real Estate. “Now, we’re seeing it simultaneously, which is unprecedented.” The impact is strengthened by the new ways that people are spending money once they get where they’re going. In 2016, Americans spent more money going to restaurants and bars than they did at grocery stores, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More and more, people are putting a larger portion of their budget on going out than on buying goods: Since 2005, sales at what the Census Bureau calls “food service and drinking places” have grown at a rate roughly twice as fast as other retail spending. That’s good news for hotels, bars and restaurants—but only if they can find workers. In September, Sun Valley Economic Development blamed “anemic” economic growth on shortages of labor, and hospitality requires a lot. Ultimately, to solve the problems on Main Street, cities in the valley must first address issues off it.

The wobbly top

The Mint, once a nightclub in the center of Hailey’s downtown, has been on the market since 2010, on a Main Street block that has seen many changes. Express photo by Roland Lane

The Amazon effect extends beyond spending, though; online shopping has changed the way consumers research products. This is especially true among price-sensitive buyers—that is, the type of shopper who might have once visited a place like King’s. According to a Pew Research Center study published in December, nearly eight in 10 Americans shop online—even though a majority, 64 percent, say they’d prefer to buy from a physical store. The reason, predictably, is price—and the ability to comparison shop. Forty-five percent of Americans begin product searches in online marketplaces like Amazon.com, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers’ 2017 Total Retail survey. That same study found that 37 percent of Americans were less likely to shop in a store because of Amazon. “One of the elements we found is that people are really buying on one of two things: They’re buying on price, or they’re buying on experience,” said Matt O’Connor, a spokesman for UPS. “We’ve seen some smaller retailers do well because they’re not trying to compete on price—they’re selling an experience.” So maybe, even though the UPS survey found that 65 percent of respondents buy online based on price, modern brick-andmortar retail isn’t totally unworkable. But it needs a face-lift. Local businesses that cater to affluent parttimers or the tourist set seem particularly well positioned to capitalize on consumers who still prefer to deal in person. Consider Red Door Home and Design, a store that moved to the northern end of Hailey’s Main Street from Bullion Street earlier this year. Inside, the showroom looks like the studio apartment of some eccentric industrialist.

said. “People go to Twin to buy something they can’t get here, and inevitably, they end up getting something else that they can.” That said, “buying on experience” need not only apply to high-end goods. Just look at post-recession spending trends on dining and travel, which are skyrocketing to new highs nationally. To see how that’s playing out in the valley, we should head up the road to Ketchum.

The Wood River bellwether In 2016, the American Planning Association named a quarter-mile stretch of Ketchum’s Main Street to its list of Great Places in America. The designation is based on character, not economic strength, but it came at a significant time for the city’s finances as well. “Fiscal 2016 was the best year since fiscal 2006,” said Director of Finance Grant Gager. “Essentially, Ketchum lost a decade of growth in the last recession.” In 2016, non-grocery retail spending in Ketchum had risen 20 percent from the end of the recession in 2009; liquor sales at bars had jumped 23 percent, according to city tax data adjusted for inflation. And 2017 is shaping up to be even stronger: With two months remaining in the fiscal year, hotel receipts had nearly matched the entire take from 2016. Given national trends, that’s not surprising. In March, the Department of Transportation announced that 823 billion passengers flew on U.S. carriers last year, a record number. And, last August, the hotel industry sold 3 million more room nights than any August on record, according to the travel research firm STR. That coincided with a supplyside increase that nearly matched the surging demand; right now, America literally can’t build hotel rooms fast enough.

“Think of the valley as a top,” Bacon said. “Everything’s been spinning pretty well, but now we’re a little out of balance, and things are getting a bit wobbly.” Talk to local employers, and many blame an unhealthy housing market for knocking the top off its axis. Since 2012, long-term rental units, as determined by the number of ads per month, have been cut in half, according to data compiled by the Blaine County Housing Authority. And 27 percent of all renters are considered “housing burdened,” paying more than a third of their paychecks in rent, based on data compiled by Sun Valley Economic Development from the American Community Survey. The problem isn’t unique to Sun Valley— it’s something that resort communities around the West have been grappling with since the economy picked up. Demand in the real estate market can be a great thing for businesses— just ask Broschofsky, who says The Red Door’s been slammed with remodels and new projects all summer. But a hot market can easily burn locals and seasonal employees. “Right now, it’s a seller’s market. That’s not a positive thing for workforce housing,” Bacon said. “The housing crisis—and I think you can call it a crisis—is hitting everyone, from the School District to the Sheriff’s Office. No one is safe from this. We need to make sure that paychecks earned here stay here. Every time someone has to move to Fairfield, that’s money going to Fairfield.” If not, expect broadening shoulder seasons, and more dark windows on downtowns. “In my experience, when commercial activity and development gain momentum, it’s a forerunner of good things to come in the residential market,” said Kenny, the 18-year commercial real estate veteran whose firm is listing The Mint for sale. For now, there are still gaps. Yesterday’s trends can become tomorrow’s anomalies. And until those gaps fill in, the valley, like The Mint’s marquee on Main Street, won’t know what’s coming next. “Someone’s going to figure out what to do with it,” Kenny said. “It just takes the right idea.”


Express

ď Ž

www.mtexpress.com

ď Ž

Wednesday, October 25, 2017

15

art s

Art means business in the Wood River Valley Spending on the arts supports nearly 900 local jobs, study says By ANDY KERSTETTER—Express Staff Writer

J

udging from the annual Sun Valley Summer Symphony, the Sun Valley Writers’ Conference and semi-regular concerts, plays and gallery walks, the arts industry in the Wood River Valley is thriving. In fact, depending on whom you talk to, the arts—visual, performing, literary and others—are as inextricable a part of this community as Bald Mountain’s ski runs or the Big Wood River’s fishing. And now, a study released earlier this year by the national nonprofit arts advocacy group Americans for the Arts presents the data to back up that claim.

The impact of the arts nationally The organization’s Arts and Economic Prosperity 5 study examined the local and national economic impacts of the nonprofit arts industry. Thousands of arts organizations in hundreds of locations across the United States provided information from their fiscal 2015 activities to present a picture of the impact that the industry has on the country. The study discovered that nationwide, the nonprofit arts industry creates about $166 billion in economic activity every year, resulting in about $28 billion in federal, state and local tax revenues. The industry also supports about 4.6 million fulltime-equivalent jobs. Additionally, about $103 billion a year is spent by audiences at cultural events—not including the cost of admission—by buying dinner at local restaurants, paying local babysitters, buying souvenirs and gifts and staying at overnight lodging. “This study demonstrates that the arts are an economic and employment powerhouse, both locally and across the nation,� said Robert L. Lynch, president and CEO of Americans for the Arts. “A vibrant arts and culture industry helps local businesses thrive and helps local communities become stronger and healthier places to live.�

The impact of the arts on the Wood River Valley Lynch’s words are especially backed up in terms of how the arts industry impacts the local economy in the valley. The study concluded that in fiscal 2015 in the Wood River Valley, a total of about $29.32 million was spent by organizations and audiences, with organizations spending about $15.70 million (on things

that include supplies, commissions, payroll and facility expense) and audiences spending about $13.85 million (on things such as transportation, food, souvenirs, lodging and child care, not including the cost of admissions to events). That totals about 891 full-timeequivalent jobs supported in the community by spending on the arts. The impact of local arts organizations such as the Sun Valley Summer Symphony, Sun Valley Center for the Arts and St. Thomas Playhouse play a stronger role in supporting jobs than audience spending does, with organizations supporting about 570 full-time jobs and audience spending supporting about 321 full-time jobs. The study concluded that, in total, local spending on the arts brings roughly $15.60 million in income to residents, $705,000 in revenue to local governments and $1.35 million in revenue to state government. Though the arts industry has grown in the valley over the years, the arts have always been an integral part of the community. “Strong arts and culture have become an essential way that we define the Wood River Valley,� said Kristin Poole, curator of visual arts for the Ketchum-based Sun Valley Center for the Arts. “As we distinguish ourselves as a beautiful mountain resort town, it’s important to realize that we offer our residents and visitors alike the opportunity to not just exercise their body but also their mind and spirit.�

A history of giving art its due Poole traces the arts’ importance in the community to the early 1970s, when the Janss Co.—which owned Sun Valley Resort at the time—recognized that a great community cannot be built solely based on a beautiful place. “Bill Janss knew you had to have arts and culture to make a community,â€? she said. In 1971, Janss convinced a friend, who later became his wife, Glenn Cooper, to start the Sun Valley Center for the Arts and Humanities. Poole said The Center began to attract patrons and visitors who were interested in the arts. As that population grew, so did the desire to have more and different kinds of arts organizations and offerings. â€œThe arts scene is so rich and deep here because there is a patron and audience base to support it,â€? she said. “If it wasn’t essential to See Arts, Page 16

arts & culture: aep 5 economic impacts

$29.3 million in spending for WRV Sales ($ million)

$13.80

$15.50 Organizational Spend Audience Spend

Source: AEP5 study 2017

Source: aep5 study 2017

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Express

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Wednesday, October 25, 2017

arts

Arts

arts & culture: aep 5 spending per capita

Arts industry provides jobs, revenue for local, national economy

Arts & Culture Spend per Capita in each community

Continued from page 15

their experience here, they wouldn’t show up!” Poole added that a number of people who relocate to the valley do so because of the arts scene. “People come here and then return because they can have a great day on the [ski] hill and then go to hear spectacular live theater or a stimulating lecture, or take in a gallery walk in the evening,” she said. “They get a full experience here that connects them to themselves and to this place.” The numbers collected by Americans for the Arts bear out Poole’s assertion. In fiscal 2015, 201,507 people attended the various arts and cultural events in the valley throughout the year, with valley residents making up the majority—about 66 percent of event attendees live in the valley, while 34 percent were from out of town. Those figures are a bit different from the rest of the nation, where audiences tend to include more out-of-towners than locals. That may just be more proof of how much the Wood River Valley community values the arts. “We hear all the time that people make the choice to move here with their family because of the diverse opportunities in the arts and education,” Poole said. “We have become a community that attracts sophisticated people who not only want to live in this beautiful place but want and need the intellectual and spiritual stimulation that comes from the arts, and they’re willing to support it.” Not only do families enjoy attending the events here, they also appreciate the chance for their children to grow up receiving quality arts education. “The Center, the symphony, the library, Footlight Dance— so many organizations spend their time in our local schools, enriching and deepening local students’ experience,” Poole said. “Without these arts organizations, our students would have a very different education. And imagine what summers would be like without the concerts, the writers conference, without the theater and the symphony.” What the out-of-town event attendees lack in physical numbers, they make up for in spending. On average, a resident attending a cultural event in the valley spends about $40 per event, while those coming from somewhere else spend about $103 on average. Visitors from elsewhere outspend residents on meals and refreshments, souvenirs and gifts, ground transportation and especially overnight lodging. “The economic impact of arts events in the summer is tremendous—these events fill seats on airplanes, beds in hotels and seats in restaurants,” Poole said. “Not only would we be spiritually and intellectually impoverished without the arts, we would also be less economically sustainable and diverse as a community.” Lynch agrees, and he exhorts government leaders to take into account the impact that the arts industry has on economies, both local and national, not to mention the cultural importance of supporting the arts. “Leaders who care about community and economic vitality can feel good about choosing to invest in the arts,” he said. “Nationally as well as locally, the arts mean business.”

Salt Lake City UT Iron County UT City and County of San Francisco CA City of Miami Beach FL City of Miami FL City of Falls Church VA Wood River Valley ID Town of Chapel Hill NC City of Boston MA City of West Palm Beach FL Southern Oregon Area OR City of Laguna Beach CA District of Columbia Town of Jackson WY Town of Crested Butte CO $-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

Source: aep5 study 2017 & SVED analysis

arts & culture: blaine co. creative industries

Direct Employment in Arts & Culture Oriented Organizations

Source: AEP5 Study 2017 & SVED analysis

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Visual Art-Other Visual Arts-Services Visual Art-Photography Visual Art-Crafts Perform Art- Services & Facilities Perform Art - Performers Perform Art -Music Zoos and Botanical Museums Radio Motion Pictures Design-General Design-Architecture Desing-Advertising Arts Schools and Instruction 0

10

20 # Employees

30

40

50

60

70

# Businesses Source: Dun & Bradstreet 2015


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