Auto Report, June 2020

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AUTO REPORT Wynter Murdoch’s

Vol 1 No 4 June, 2020

C

oming in the midst of softening consumer markets globally and a shift away from traditional vehicles and systems, the effects of the COVID-19 crisis have presented the world’s automotive industry with severe revenue and cost challenges, along with some problematic capital allocation choices. That’s the view of global consulting company AlixPartners which, in a study published this month, predicts that lockdowns, slow restarts and lingering blows to consumer confidence and employment will see automakers face a cumulative volume drop of up to 36-million vehicles over the next three years. Further, the study finds that the industry will carry an additional debt burden of around $72 -billion (about R1,2-trillion) which was added between March and May this year when automotive companies scrambled to maintain the cash they needed to meet their payrolls and other financial commitments. The analysis, entitled The Global Automotive Outlook: Mastering Uncertainty, forecasts that global vehicle sales in 2020 will total just 70,5-million units, down from a record-setting 94-million units only three years ago.

Coming to terms with COVID-19’s dire stats be courageous yet forward-looking in their decisions, all the while taking full advantage of any favourable governmental policies available to them.”

“The impact of the COVID-19 crisis globally is as if a market the size of all of Europe has vanished for the year,” says Stefano Aversa, chairman of Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) at AlixPartners.

Regarding the supplier industry’s readiness to deal with crisis ahead of the coronavirus pandemic, the study concludes that financially strong companies represented only 6% of the sector’s revenue last year, with 50% generated by entities deemed “stressed” or “distressed.”

“To weather the storm, companies need to

“Clearly, automakers, suppliers, mobility

GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY DEBT MARCH, APRIL, MAY

$72-

BILLION

players and all others connected to this industry need to be microscopically selective with their capital allocation decisions – closely and unsentimentally examining each and every programme and spend for its cash and profitability implications,” says Aversa. Mark Wakefield, managing director of AlixPartners’ automotive practice, says to deal with the gaping holes in their profit-and-loss statements and ballooning balance sheets, the industry’s decision makers will need to rapidly reduce their true breakeven points. “To be prudent given the uncertainty of the pandemic, companies should get their breakeven points to Great Recession levels – to be in line with global industry sales of only about 65-million units, or at most about 14million units on the US side,” he advises. Meanwhile, other parts of the research find additional evidence that suppliers and vehicle makers alike entered the crisis in bad financial shape. For instance, against 2015’s figures, return on capital employed (ROCE) Continued on Page 2

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