Meredith Guthrie Weather and Climate information

Weather and climate information Dr Meredith Guthrie Climate and Weather, DPIRD, Perth

What is an El Nino ?

Usually starts in autumn and decays the following summer can last 2 years (1993/1994)

Southern Oscillation Index is below -7

Sea Surface Temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region + 0.8°C

El Niño influence – winter - spring

El Niño influence in summer

What is a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole?

Sea Surface Temperature +0.4°C Usually lasts from May to November due to the onset of the Australian monosoon

Positive Indian Ocean Influence

higher than normal temperatures over parts of Australia during winter and spring.

What can we except this summer?

Future Climate Projections Dardanup https://myclimateview.com.au/ My Climate View Oct-April rain

May-Sept rain

Mean Jan Temp (°C)

Heatwave*

1963-1992

209

700

22.4

1

1993-2022

172

628

22.8

1

Medium Greenhouse Gas Scenario Representative Concertation Pathway 4.5 2030

155

602

23.4

2

2050

164

581

23.7

2

2070

153

575

24.1

2

High Greenhouse Gas Scenario Representative Concertation Pathway 8.5 2030

166

589

23.4

2

2050

143

528

24

2

2070

133

511

24.8

3

* Heatwave, 3 or more consecutive days >35°C

Australia’s Wine Future A Climate Atlas University of Tas 2019 6 Climate Models

Minimal change in rainfall Warmer temperatures Heatwaves increasing Less available water

Aridity = Annual precipitation/ annual pan evaporation Indicates available water

DPIRD Weather station

https://weather.agric.wa.gov.au/

Bureau of Meteorology – Met Eye http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

Bureau’s Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD)

Windy https://www.windy.com/ Rain accumulation – 4 models, ECMWF is the best

Ozforecast www.ozforecast.com.au

Forecasts are from 3 model systems, Australian Digital Forecast Database (ADFD), Operational Consensus Forecast (OCF), and the US GFS model. For a week ahead, also shows sub-daily details, as well as graphical output (Forecast Meteogram) .

Three month forecasts https://www.agric.wa.gov.au/newsletters/sco

Thank you

Important disclaimer The Chief Executive Officer of the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development and the State of Western Australia accept no liability whatsoever by reason of negligence or otherwise arising from the use or release of this information or any part of it.

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