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LBizMarketIntelligence_220725

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Leatherbiz Market Intelligence executive summary: • • • • • •

• •

People in the leather industry in China lament the current situation and are already suffering from tariffs and restrictions However, expectations for the industry’s immediate future there are not all negative This is why so many US hides still appear in the export statistics for China Essentially, a small number of companies that are either wholly or partly supported by the state are engaging in this raw material sourcing The only interest is in the cheapest hides, but these raw material purchases still seem to point to a better future If leather is competitively priced, Chinese consumers will still be very willing to buy leather products and still consider them to be of higher quality than the alternatives With a population of almost 1.4 billion people, China still represents a very large domestic market If the government includes good stimulus policies in its next five-year plan (2026-2030), there are grounds for optimism, and for investing in raw material.

MARKET INTELLIGENCE

M

ost factories in Europe are clearing the decks and production is entering its final stages before the summer holiday season begins. The general situation has not changed in recent weeks. In international politics most decisions continue to originate with the US president, and the fact that announcements increasingly play out on social media is accelerating the pace of information even further. As a result, political decisions are less and less the result of calm discussions in parliaments and government buildings and more and more the result of impulsive outpourings from individuals. We will refrain from listing the individual tariff threats and agreements that have been made in recent weeks. Ultimately, it is not so much the individual threats and deals that are decisive, but rather the high degree of uncertainty they cause. When talking to many of those affected in the supply chain in Europe today, the content of the conversations is mostly similar. But one thing unites almost all of them. There is a sense of great fatigue and the impression that the reaction is, increasingly, a shrug of the shoulders and less on actually dealing with the problems that directly or indirectly affect the leather industry. To sum it up briefly, it seems that people are simply waiting for the holiday break and do not want to deal with problems, big or small, for a few weeks. Of

course, people are not so naive as to believe that everything will be fine again after they return. We have no choice but to address customs duties once again. In our opinion, the indirect influences are particularly problematic. Owing to the long supply chains, customs duties cannot be viewed bilaterally. This is particularly true for high-quality leather manufactured in Europe. If this leather is delivered to third countries to be made into a final products there, the question of who is affected by tariffs and to what extent is one issue. But then there is the other issue of how the possible customs burden should be distributed. However, we also believe that the consideration and discussion of tariffs overlooks a very important point. The tariffs must be paid by the buyers in the US and not by the exporters. In the public perception, there is a growing impression that tariffs are a direct burden on those who supply goods. The discussion and analysis of how and to what extent the increased prices will affect US purchasing behaviour is, in our opinion, far from sufficient. Despite all the hope that the president has regarding his goals, it should not be forgotten that, at the moment, US consumers and companies are still dependent on imports of many products. It can therefore be assumed that almost all countries could be affected by tariffs in some form, which raises the question of how the competitiveness of

the individual supplier countries will develop. There are quite a number of products that cannot be immediately and easily imported and replaced by the US. Ultimately, the question is whether there will be a significant increase in inflation there and how purchasing behaviour might change. Even though highquality products will not be left unscathed, higher-end products that are either manufactured in Europe or made from European materials in third countries will probably feel less of an impact than others. Nevertheless, there is still a possibility that leather could be less affected by tariffs and therefore become more competitive as a material. Due to historically low prices for raw materials, the pure costs are often no longer the most significant obstacle. In any case, if the tariffs are actually implemented, there will most likely be a significant change in supply chains and purchasing behaviour in the US. This does not even take into account the impact of possible counter-tariffs, which in turn could bring about additional changes for individual products and countries. However, the situation is so complex and so many parameters are still unclear that it is virtually impossible to make a truly comprehensive and reliable analysis and projection. This explains why so many players in the leather supply chain are currently overwhelmed and, in some cases, even desperate about whether and how their products will be affected by these developments. This explains why this feeling of paralysis is so widespread in Europe. In this context, the diverse discussions with our partners in Asia, and especially in China, have also been interesting. We have naturally tried to gather information and impressions from China as well, to find out how the trade conflict between China and the US is perceived there, given that it will have a much more decisive impact on the Chinese market. We readily admit that we did not have high expectations for the discussions. To be honest, we expected pessimism and fear. As much as people lament the current situation in the leather industry in China and as much as they are already suffering from tariffs and restrictions, it is surprising that this is not necessarily linked to negative expectations for the future. Our questions were actually based on the assumption that we would receive information about why, under the current conditions, so many US hides still appear in the export statistics for China. If the outlook is so poor and larger stocks have allegedly already been built up, why buy even more, and in significant quantities, over the last few


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