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Leatherbiz Market Intelligence executive summary: • • •
A question has arisen about the extent to which the changing political situation will have an impact on the leather industry Ours is only a small sector and does not play a special role in the big world of business But for our customers, especially in the automotive and luxury goods industries, it looks as though important changes are possible
MARKET INTELLIGENCE Macroeconomics
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veryone knows the outcome of the US presidential election now. It was a clear victory for Donald Trump in the end. It seems US voters were guided in their decision by national concerns rather than by questions of global security, free trade or foreign policy. This must be accepted; the decision of the voters is a cornerstone of democracy. The next four years will certainly bring many changes. The convictions of the new-old president and his administration will certainly provoke a lot of reaction, and possibly also conflicts. Much of what is considered important in other regions, especially in Europe, seems to mean relatively little to the new president, and on many crucial issues he also takes diametrically different positions. It remains to be seen what impact this will have on the global economy, trade relations and political relations. One thing is for sure: it will not be easy. Europe is now taking revenge for the fact that, on the one hand, it was not really prepared for this result and, on the other hand, that Europe does not agree on many issues and has also weakened itself in many sectors in recent years. This does not make the situation any easier economically. In addition to security policy issues, trade relations will be difficult and for our sector there will be also the different positions on climate policy. Europe may have many good intentions and some goals may also be shared worldwide, but the way in which the problem is dealt with, the time factor and the pathways are extremely different. A good example of this is India praising itself for buying Russian oil. Another is the COP29 conference taking place in Azerbaijan; the chosen location alone represents a certain paradox. Ideology meets pragmatism at the moment, and you have to have the impression that pragmatism is winning. How Europe deals with this question will be very interesting. The break-up of the German coalition government is more than just a side note; the
outcome of the new elections in 2025 will be of considerable importance for future European Union policy. If the general shift to the right is also evident in Germany, then this is likely to have a significant impact on many areas of EU policy. In addition to politics, the announcements of the Chinese central government to support some highly indebted provinces with $1.4 trillion were a very clear signal of how difficult the current economic situation in China is. In addition, there were announcements of tax cuts for private house purchases to support the still weak real estate market. The reaction of the financial markets in China and overseas has been relatively muted. Given the size of the Chinese government’s support measures, it must be assumed that the less than enthusiastic reaction of the financial markets indicates that problems are so significant that even this extremely large support may still not be enough to put the economy back on a solid growth path. The financial markets reacted clearly to the election result in the US. Donald Trump is generally considered positive for the stock market and that is how it was interpreted this time. In particular, companies and entrepreneurs who are assumed to be in line for help from his policies have seen significant gains in value. After a few days, the enthusiasm of investors slowly waned and somewhat more realistic valuations set in. From a more rational point of view, it is first necessary to wait and see to what extent the new president can implement his announcements. This is particularly true concerning tariffs and his idea that he will be able to control inflation better than his predecessor. If you take the US dollar as a reflection of the expectations of interest rate developments, then you have to assume that the markets see the policy as inflationary and the US dollar has therefore risen sharply in value. The price of gold fell significantly after the election. Likewise, the price of oil continued to go backwards because estimates of oil
demand and at the same time Mr Trump’s desire to produce more oil in the US weighed heavily on the price. One thing can be said in any case after the election: anyone looking for excitement in the financial markets will probably be well entertained in the near future.
Market Intelligence A question has arisen about the extent to which the changing political situation will have an impact on the leather industry. Of course, ours is only a small sector and does not play a special role in the big world of business. But for our customers, especially in the automotive and luxury goods industries, it looks as though important changes are possible. If there is a fundamental willingness to give leather space again, where can leather be successfully produced? Possible tariffs on the import of many products into the US could play a major role here. This would probably have the greatest effect on automobiles first. It remains to be seen whether luxury goods such as handbags or other accessories would also be affected. However, this may not be an issue because, according to his own statements, the new president-elect of the US, Donald Trump, is only interested in relocating production to home soil. There may be new tariffs not only on European cars, but possibly also on many other imports, especially from China. It is still completely unclear what products might be involved. It might be a nice thought to just sit back or, if necessary, go on a long vacation and wait to see what emerges. But for people who have to run companies, this is not really an option. We have to think about how things will continue in the next few months and what strategies should be chosen for the future. Much will also depend on whether the European Commission will stick to its ‘Green Deal’ strategy. Whatever happens, the leather industry, especially in Europe, will have to deal with the facts and the framework conditions for production, with or without measures such as the European Union Deforestation Regulation. The fact remains that the quality of industrially manufactured leather has become the same more or less everywhere in the world. Under this condition, the parameters of costs and revenues as well as production conditions must then be analysed in detail. The motives that caused the leather industry to relocate overseas were initially that tanners were following their customers, plus, of course, seeking to benefit from lower wage costs. Then came the considerations of the