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Leatherbiz Market Intelligence executive summary: • •
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US tariff policy is having a great impact on the world The situation in the currency markets is also playing an important role; the US dollar depreciated by as much as 16% against the euro in the first half of the year The ratio of raw material costs to production costs for leather has shifted dramatically in recent years The old rule of thumb that raw material would account for approximately 50% of a tannery’s costs has long since ceased to apply The cost share of raw materials has fallen dramatically and, with it, the leverage on the price of finished leather Stocks of semi-finished goods across the globe are high and the shelflife of these goods is not infinite, just as the storage and financing costs are not negligible There is no realistic prospect of rapid utilisation of these current stocks A further increase in stocks can be avoided if production remains constant, but decisions will still need to be made regarding the goods already in stock today.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE
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he first half of 2025 has come to an end. This is a good time to take stock of the current year so far. There has not been much positive news to report for the leather supply chain. Demand for leather as a material continues to decline, and the discussion is more about the fundamental causes of this than addressing the question of how to change the situation. Of course, it is easy to blame the global situation for the problem, but that would be too simplistic. Much of it also has to do with how the leather industry has handled its product presentation and marketing in recent years. Macro influences also play an important role. In addition to the war in Ukraine, there have also been conflicts in the Middle East. None of these has been resolved to date. Immediate risks, such as a massive rise in oil prices, have been averted, as has the further spread of the conflict. US tariff policy has a great impact on the world. At the time of writing, only a few bilateral agreements, including the recent one with Vietnam, have been reached. Vietnam is, of course, a very important negotiating partner because a large number of consumer goods for the US market are manufactured there. In our sector, this affects a large part of the footwear industry, as well as several other sectors that also deal with leather. In addition to tariffs, the situation in the currency markets also plays an important role.
The US dollar depreciated by up to 16% against the euro in the first half of the year. Exporters from Europe must take this into account in their calculations, in addition to tariffs. It is a package. Either the customer pays, which is rather unlikely, especially when demand is one of the core problems, or it is at the expense of the seller. This is the case with leather and leather products. However, a final assessment of the impact on the supply chain in the leather industry can only be made once a precise overview of the tariffs is available. This is likely to happen in the coming weeks. We would repeat that tariffs are only part of the overall package of burdens in international trade and that currency’s influence, at least in the case of Europe, will be a significant part of the overall combo of burdens. The significance of this whole issue was also evident last week in announcements from several luxury goods companies. They pointed out that currency influences are having a negative impact on their business development. Let us remember that it was not so long ago that some luxury goods companies were relatively relaxed about the fact that they would simply pass on any tariffs in their pricing and did not expect any real negative effects on their business development. They pointed to the strength of their brands and the low level of pricesensitivity of their high-end customers. This is probably no longer tenable today, which is why we should consider how strongly this will affect the lower end of the price ladder.
In this context, it should also be noted that the ratio of raw material costs to production costs for leather has shifted dramatically in recent years. There used to be an old rule of thumb that the raw material share in a leather factory’s cost calculations would account for approximately 50%, on a long-term average. Even though there are different values for the various types of raw materials, as for finished leather, this rule of thumb has long since ceased to apply; the cost share of raw materials has fallen dramatically, and with it the leverage on the price of finished leather. The same applies, incidentally, to the calculation of the by-product of hides in the slaughter industry. The massive fall in cattle hide prices has meant that revenues from hides and, thus, the share in a slaughterhouse’s revenue calculation have become almost negligible. Perhaps some campaign groups, which have been enthusiastically claiming for years that cattle are not only slaughtered for their hides, but also that hides play a decisive role in the profitability of meat companies, might consider this new situation. As little truth as there was in their previous arguments, these have even less validity today. On the raw materials markets, it has been noticeable in recent weeks that China is still purchasing relatively large quantities of hides. This is remarkable in that almost everyone in China reports that the leather industry there is facing very low orders and continues to report significant inventories. As far as we were able to gather from our sources in China, we were only able to find out that these purchases are being made by a few large companies, which in turn are said to be receiving large orders from the military and state security agencies. This is difficult to verify, but information about state policy in China would certainly explain such behaviour. Additional buyers are said to include companies that still have sufficient financial resources. They consider the raw material prices irresistible and simply want to maintain their production levels. It is undisputed that exports of leather and leathergoods from China are currently relatively weak owing to the trade conflict. Local consumption in China also remains weak, and anyone who travels to China at the moment and remembers the well-stocked, glittering shopping malls of a few years ago is now more likely to see yawning emptiness and bored salespeople in the large shopping malls. This news is naturally accompanied by the information that the Chinese internet shopping platform AliBaba plans to distribute