THE FUTURIST, November - December 2012

Forecasts, Trends, and Ideas about the Future

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“In the future, neuroscientists may be able to predict human behavior” — and more than 60 other mind-blowing forecasts in our annual roundup! Page 33

Whatever Happened to Western Civilization? page 16 In Search of a New Ideology, page 23 Who Will Be Free? Human Rights in 2050, page 29 The Global Talent Chase, page 43 Report from WorldFuture 2012, page 48 PLUS: WORLD TRENDS & FORECASTS

What Futurism and Middle School Have in Common A Neighborhood Tour of Green Innovation Growing Market for Bioplastics Churches Go Mobile

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November-December 2012

About the World Future Society Why study the future?

What is the World ­Future Society?

The world changes so quickly that it‘s hard to keep up. New inventions and innovations alter the way we live. People‘s values, attitudes, and beliefs are changing. And the pace of change keeps accelerating, making it difficult to prepare for ­tomorrow.

By studying the future, people can better anticipate what lies ahead. More importantly, they can actively decide how they will live in the future by making choices today and realizing the consequences of their decisions.

The future doesn‘t just happen: People create it through their action—or inaction—­today.

The World Future Society is an association of people interested in how social and technological developments are shaping the future. The Society was founded in 1966 by a group of private citizens, and is chartered as a nonprofit educational and scientific organization.

What can we know about the future?

No one knows exactly what will happen in the future. But by considering what might happen, people can more rationally decide on the sort of future that would be most desirable and then work to achieve it.

Opportunity as well as danger lies ahead, so people need to make farsighted decisions. The process of change is inevitable; it‘s up to everyone to make sure that change is constructive.

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Visit www.wfs.org or contact: World Future Society Membership Department 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450 Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA Telephone: 301-656-8274

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The Society strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future. Ideas about the future include forecasts, recommendations, scenarios, alternatives, and more. These ideas help people to anticipate what may happen in the next five, 10, or more years ahead. When people can ­visualize a better future, then they can begin to ­create it.

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■ THE FUTURIST, a magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas about the future. Every member receives a subscription to this exciting bimonthly magazine. Experts in various fields share their insights and forecasts in articles directed at a general audience.

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November-December 2012 Volume 46, No. 6

A magazine of forecasts, trends, and ideas

Chasing STEM skills.

Page 43

ARTICLES 16 Whatever Happened to Western Civilization? The Cultural Crisis, 20 Years Later

By Richard Eckersley In 1993, THE FUTURIST published author Richard Eckersley’s provocative essay, “The West’s Deepening Cultural Crisis.” Here, he looks back at what has happened since, and forward to what the next 20 years might hold.

23 In Search of the “Better Angels” of Our Future

By Kenneth B. Taylor

DEPARTMENTS 2

Tomorrow in Brief

4

Feedback

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World Trends & Forecasts: Future View Essay, Urban Planning, Green Enterprise, Ministries

14 Salute to Our Contributors 56 Consultants and Services 64 As Blogged: On Being Human in a Transhuman Future

about the future

The ideologies that once guided us through political and economic conflicts—such as communism versus capitalism—have little relevance to cultures that face new, technologically driven conflicts over the very meaning of humanity. As we relentlessly pursue paradigm-altering technologies, we will need a new set of guidelines for understanding who we are and where we are heading.

29 Who Will Be Free? The Battles For Human Rights to 2050

By Josh Calder

As geopolitical power around the world shifts, so will the global consensus on human rights. There are challenges ahead, but the expansion of affluence, education, and digital technology may lead to a freer and more humane world in the long run.

43 The Global Talent Chase: China, India, and U.S. Vie for Skilled Workers

By Edward E. Gordon

Too many tech jobs and not enough tech professionals to fill them—China, India, and the United States all face this dilemma. Here is what each economic powerhouse is—and should be—doing to ease its workforce gap, and a look at a successful strategy known as Regional Talent Innovation Networks, or RETAINS.

48 Dream, Design, Develop, Deliver: From Great Ideas to Better Outcomes

By Rick Docksai

A better future doesn’t happen on its own. We create it with our ideas, plans, and actions. In July, hundreds of futurists from around the world took the opportunity to “dream, design, develop, and deliver” the future together at WorldFuture 2012.

Additional reports from Patrick Tucker, David Hochfelder, and Joyce Gioia.

Reporting from the future.

Page 48

33 Outlook 2013 BOOKS 59 An Economy Of, By, And For the People A book review by Rick Docksai

In Owning Our Future, business ethicist Marjorie Kelly envisions commerce that makes human well-being, not wealth, its goal.

We’ll use neuroscience to predict behavior. Nanobots will deliver anticancer drugs. People will make a living without jobs. These are a few of the forecasts in THE FUTURIST’s annual roundup of thought-provoking ideas.

COVER ILLUSTRATION BY LISA MATHIAS USING 3D MODEL © BITMAPWORLD / TURBOSQUID.COM

© 2012 World Future Society. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or part without written permission is prohibited. THE FUTURIST is a registered trademark of the World Future Society. Printed in the U.S.A. THE FUTURIST (ISSN 0016-3317) is published bimonthly by the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Included with membership in the World Future Society (dues: $79 per year for individuals; $20 for full-time students under age 25). Subscriptions for libraries and other institutions are $89 annually. Periodicals postage paid at Bethesda, Maryland, and additional mailing offices. • POSTMASTER: Send address changes to THE FUTURIST, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814. • OWNERSHIP: THE FUTURIST is owned exclusively by the World Future Society, a nonpartisan educational and scientific organization incorporated in the District of Columbia and recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a nonprofit taxexempt organization under section 501(c)3 of the Internal Revenue Code. • CHANGE OF ADDRESS: Write or call Membership Department at the Society. 1-800-989-8274.

Tomorrow

in brief

COURTESY OF VIRGINIA TECH

Acoustic Tweezers Ultrasound used in medical imaging may soon be deployed as a new, noninvasive tool for biomedical research and other applications. The “acoustic tweezers,” under development at Penn State University, can move and manipulate tiny objects like blood cells and even small organisms without touching them.

The acoustic tweezers are based on a piezoelectric material that produces mechanical motion when an electrical current is applied. Ultrasound offers a more affordable alterna-

Sapphire Optics tive to optical tweezers or lasers to produce this effect, because it requires less power density, according to Tony Jun Huang, associate professor of bioengineering. It is also far smaller and produces less heat than lasers, thus making the device less likely to damage cells.

Among the potential applications of the device are pointof-care cancer cell sorting and diagnostics, says Huang.

Source: Materials Research Institute, Penn State University, www.mri.psu.edu.

XIAOYUN DING, STEPHEN J. BENKOVIC, AND TONY JUN HUANG / PENN STATE

Acoustic tweezers use ultrasound waves to manipulate cells into patterns without touching them. © CARLOS GUTIERREZ / ISTOCKPHOTO.COM

Amish Boom The fastest-growing religious group in the United States is the Amish, whose numbers will reach 1 million shortly after 2050, according to Joseph Donnermeyer, professor of rural sociology at Ohio State University.

While most other religions experience growth due to conversions, Amish communities are growing on sheer family size and numbers of baptisms.

A new Amish settlement is founded every three and a half weeks, and more than 60% of Amish settlements in the United States have been founded just since 1990.

Among the impacts of this boom in a traditionally technology-averse population will be more demand for farmland and farm jobs, which may not be able to keep pace with growth.

As Amish men then turn to

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Conservation researcher Sarah Karpanty in Madagascar’s Ranomafana National Park.

Threats to Biodiversity In Protected Forests Many of the world’s tropical forest preserves are experiencing declines in biodiversity, reports a team of conservation researchers in the journal Nature.

Tropical forests are rich in terms of numbers of species, but protected areas are struggling to sustain their diversity— mirroring threats to the surrounding areas, such as lack of protection and encroachment from illegal colonists, hunters, and loggers.

The study found that most preserves do help protect the surrounding forests, but about half were losing old-growth trees and wildlife, such as many primates, stream-dwelling fish, and amphibians.

“We need to be as aggressive in eliminating threats outside of park boundaries as we are in establishing new parks or maintaining existing ones,” concludes Sarah Karpanty, associate professor of wildlife conservation at Virginia Tech.

Source: Virginia Tech, www.vt.edu.

Sapphire may soon supplant silica as an effective and affordable medium for fiber optics.

Silica-based optical fiber has nearly reached its physical limits for transmitting information, observes John Ballato, director of the Center for Optical Materials Science and Engineering Technologies at Clemson University. As demand for highspeed data transmission accelerates, the need for more durable materials is becoming critical.

Sapphire is widely available, low cost, and has proved valuable in high-energy lasers. ­Ballato and his team have developed new techniques for creating fibers that overcome the challenges associated with sapphire’s crystalline structure.

This will make sapphire fibers more useful for high-energy applications than typical commercial fibers.

Source: Clemson University, www.clemson.edu.

JOHN BALLATO / CLEMSON UNIVERSITY

Sapphire fiber developed by Clemson University materials engineers.

WordBuzz: Connectome

Horse-drawn buggies may become a more common sight on U.S. rural roads, as Amish population increases. nonfarm jobs such as woodworking, local economies could see a boost from new business startups, Donnermeyer predicts.

Source: Ohio State University, www.osu.edu.

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Research is under way to create a road map of our minds—the connectome.

Just as the Human Genome Project aimed to draw our genetic map, the Human Connectome Project will map “the complete, point-to-point spatial connectivity of neural pathways in the brain,” according to ­Arthur W. Toga and colleagues of UCLA’s David ­Geffen School of Medicine. The work is funded by the National Institute of Mental Health.

The human nervous sys-

tem’s 100 billion neurons form functional connections that enable us to sense, think, and act. The project will help researchers to better understand normal variation in brain development and to chart genetic influences on neurological and psychiatric diseases, such as autism, schizophrenia, and Alzheimer’s disease.

Sources: Neurosurgery, published

by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Human Connectome Project Web site www.humanconnectome project.org.

About

Issue

this

A Publication of the World Future Society

Editorial Staff Edward Cornish Founding Editor

Cynthia G. Wagner Editor

Patrick Tucker Deputy Editor

Rick Docksai Associate Editor

Lane Jennings Research Director

Lisa Mathias Art Director

Contributing Editors Clement Bezold, Government Tsvi Bisk, Strategic Thinking Irving H. Buchen, Training Peter Eder, Marketing and Communications Thomas Frey, Innovation Joyce Gioia-Herman, Workforce/Workplace Barbara Marx Hubbard, Images of Man Joseph P. Martino, Technological Forecasting Matt Novak, Historical Futures Joseph N. Pelton, Telecommunications Arthur B. Shostak, Utopian Thought David P. Snyder, Lifestyles Gene Stephens, Criminal Justice Timothy Willard, Biofutures Richard Yonck, Computing and AI

Contact Us Letters to the Editor: letters@wfs.org Subscription/Address Change: info@wfs.org Advertising: jcornish@wfs.org Submissions/Queries: cwagner@wfs.org Permission/Reprints: jcornish@wfs.org Back Issues/Bulk Copies: jcornish@wfs.org Press/Media Inquiries: ptucker@wfs.org Partnerships/Affiliations: tmack@wfs.org Conference Inquiries: swarner@wfs.org Anything Else: info@wfs.org THE FUTURIST World Future Society 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450 Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA Hours: 9 a.m.–5 p.m. eastern time, weekdays except U.S. holidays Telephone: 301-656-8274 or 800-989-8274 Fax: 301-951-0394 www.wfs.org/futurist

All Disquiet on the Western Civilization Front?

Western civilization may have hit an existential wall. The ­ ecades-long battle between communism and capitalism—essend tially two different ways of organizing the economy that became spiritually motivating raisons d’êtres for large segments of the world—ended in a pyrrhic victory for capitalists. The “great ­Satan” defeated the “evil empire,” leaving us without purpose and meaning, and the triumph of capitalism brought about increased materialism, less happiness, and diminished well-being of young people.

“For a while, things were looking up” in the West, observes Australian social researcher and author Richard Eckersley. But the burst of the dot-com bubble, punctuated by the 9/11 terrorist attacks, brought “declinology” back into the public debate about Western civilization. Pessimism throughout society is now deepening, Eckersley says. (See “Whatever Happened to Western Civilization? The Cultural Crisis, 20 Years Later,” page 16.)

We need a new ideology for changing times, says Villanova University economist Kenneth B. Taylor. The “end of Western civilization” as we know it is actually the end of the beginning of the Enlightenment, and we are now entering the Age of Transformation, he says. Transformation, that is, of human beings: Taylor outlines a new ideology that will inform this transformation as scientists develop ever more powerful tools for engineering a new humanity. (See “In Search of the ‘Better Angels’ of Our Future,” page 23.)

But what about those other aspects of civilization for which we have long fought —democracy, human rights, and the like? As it turns out, the “triumph of capitalism” did not settle things, according to consulting futurist Josh Calder. He examines the technological, economic, political, and social trends shaping prospects for freedom around the world. (See “Who Will Be Free? The ­Battles for Human Rights to 2050,” page 29.)

As I write, I retain the exhilarating hope for the future that pervaded the atmosphere at the World Future Society’s annual meeting. Even the “pessimists” in attendance may be construed as hopeful, for surely the very act of thinking about the future and conferring with other future-thinkers is a manifestation of some level of optimism about civilization’s prospects. See Associate ­Editor Rick Docksai’s report on WorldFuture 2012, along with those of Patrick Tucker, David Hochfelder, and Joyce Gioia, ­beginning on page 48.

—Cynthia G. Wagner, Editor cwagner@wfs.org

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Feedback Comments, “likes,” and tweets Here is a roundup of online reactions to the SeptemberOctober 2012 issue of THE FUTURIST. Re: “The 22nd Century at First Light: Envisioning Life in the Year 2100” Glenn Keyes (via Linked­In): It is a lot of fun trying to guess what the future might hold. Certainly, technology is advancing so rapidly that so much is possible, and so much is almost hard to imagine.

How do families exist in the future?

What happens to our moral base?

Do countries (and people) ever learn to live within their means? Do politicians and the media learn to tell the truth? Will anyone recognize it if they do? Who guides the social side of society while the technological side brings in all of the changes?

It will be interesting to watch this conversation discussing 2100, and all that might happen.

Re: “Religious Belief in the Year 2100” by Gina A. Bellofatto Justin Long (@justindlong, via Twitter): by friend of a friend, good read. future is more religious John Wesley Davenport (via Facebook): I think that you are entirely correct. Humans’ need for a spiritual life and the sense of community that exists in churches provide the impetus for such and increase in religious affiliation. Both tend to offset the loneliness and isolation of modern society. Now, if we can only come to realize that all major religions are far more alike than they are different.

Re: “Will We Still Have Money in 2100?” by Stephen Aguilar-Millan Zia You (via Facebook): It would be really bizarre if money was still used in 2100. :s Oskar Dahlberg: Why? The only reason I see to stop using money is 4

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that we have achieved practically limitless generation of ideas, things and experiences and see it more efficient to simply give things a w a y f o r f re e .

Money will and should take different forms but as long as we have scarcity I see no reason to stop comparing things and ­representing their values numerically.

Re: “Healthy Aging in the 22nd Century” by Marta M. Keane Submitted by Anonymous (via WFS.org): Dementia is on the rise and humanity did not make any progress (medical, pharmaceutical, and social) in this area. People after 65 continue to dive into subhuman existence and rate is increasing.

I do not know how we can talk about sugary sweet futuristic ageing till the issue of gerontological mental fitness is resolved.

Re: “Timeline to the 22nd Century”

by Dick Pelletier (Web exclusive) Submitted by Anonymous (via WFS.org): Really enjoyed this predictive timeline. Having grown up on a diet of Asimov and Scott Card, I think this timeline is inevitable and the time of transition from human to transhuman is nearing. Many of us speculate on how we—humans— would treat the non-biological entities. Would we say please to a robot?

Would we expect robots to leave us alone when we are emotionally down? Do we expect AI to empathize and love? Will non-biological entities have the same rights as a fully biological entity? Freedom to pursue happiness? I guess the presidents in the twenty-second century would be working on a new Declaration of Universal Rights for Non-Biological Entities.

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Dick Pelletier responds: Thank you for your comments.

How would we treat non-biological entities? In the beginning, when our bodies are still mostly biological and without substantial brain enhancement, our government may enact a robots rights initiative protecting our silicon cousins from abuse; maybe similar to how we treat animals today.

However, as we wind through the twenty-first century adding more and more non-biological parts to our bodies, the difference between humans and their machines will blur.

By century’s end, we could evolve into a single species living in powerful self-repairing bodies with a life­span approaching immortality. Suffering an unwanted death would be only a distant memory from our crude past.

Twenty-second-century humans could be as different from us 2012-ers as we are to our caveman ancestors.

As we become non-biological entities, would we still want to reproduce; and if so, what might the procedure be like?

One possibility would be to select the desired age of the child, “clone” a body (or bypass the child mode and clone an adult), and then upload simulated consciousness and memories into the new person.

It’s difficult to imagine with much accuracy how our future will unfold.

With information technologies advancing exponentially over the coming decades, the future could get wild. ❑

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Officers

Staff

President: Timothy C. Mack

Director of Communications: Patrick Tucker

Treasurer: Jay McIntosh

Business and Advertising Manager: Jeff Cornish

Secretary: Kenneth W. Harris

Meeting Administrator: Sarah Warner

Directors Bob Chernow (vice chairman) CEO, The Tellier Foundation

Edward Cornish founder and former president, World Future Society

Esther Franklin executive vice president and director of cultural identities, Starcom MediaVest Group

John Gottsman president, The Clarity Group

Kenneth W. Harris chairman, The Consilience Group LLC

Kenneth W. Hunter (chairman) senior fellow, Maryland China Initiative, University of Maryland

Timothy C. Mack president, World Future Society

Jay McIntosh president, Consumer Foresight LLC

Mylena Pierremont

Clement Bezold

Michael Michaelis

chairman and senior futurist,

president, Partners In Enterprise

Institute for Alternative Futures

Julio Millán

Arnold Brown

president, Banco de Tecnologias, and

chairman, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

chairman, Grupo Coraza, Mexico

Adolfo Castilla

Joergen Oerstroem Moeller

economist, communications professor, Madrid

visiting senior research fellow, ISEAS, Singapore

Marvin J. Cetron

John Naisbitt

president, Forecasting International Ltd.

trend analyst and author

Hugues de Jouvenel

Burt Nanus

executive director, Association

author and professor emeritus of management,

Internationale Futuribles

University of Southern California

Yehezkel Dror

Joseph N. Pelton

professor, Hebrew University of Jerusalem

founder and vice chairman,

William E. Halal

Arthur C. Clarke Foundation

professor of management science and

John L. Petersen

director of Emerging Technologies Project,

president, The Arlington Institute

George Washington University

Sandra L. Postel

Peter Hayward

director, Global Water Policy Proj­ect

program director, Strategic Foresight Program, Swinburne University of Technology, Australia

president, Ming Pai Consulting BV

Jared Weiner

Barbara Marx Hubbard president, The Foundation for Conscious Evolution

vice president, Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc.

Global Advisory Council Stephen Aguilar-Millan European Futures Observatory

Raja Ikram Azam honorary chairman, Pakistan Futuristics Foundation

Raj Bawa president, Bawa Biotechnology Consulting, and adjunct associate professor, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Francis Rabuck director, Technology Research, Bentley Systems Inc.

Robert Salmon former vice president, L’Oreal Corporation, Paris

Sohail Inayatullah professor, Tamkang University, Taiwan

Maurice F. Strong secretary general, U.N. Conference on

Zhouying Jin

Environment and Development

president, Beijing Academy of Soft Technology

Alvin Toffler

Eleonora Barbieri Masini

author

professor emerita, Faculty of Social Sciences,

Heidi Toffler

Gregorian University, Rome

author

Graham May principal lecturer in futures research, Leeds Metropolitan University, U.K.

The World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific association dedicated to promoting a better understanding of the trends shaping our future.

Founded in 1966, the Society serves as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future; it takes no stand on what the future will or should be like. The Society’s publications, conferences, and other activities are open to all individuals and institutions around the world.

For more information on membership programs, contact Society headquarters Monday through Friday, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time.

7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Telephone: 1-301-656-8274, Toll free: 1-800-989-8274, Fax: 1-301-951-0394 Web site: www.wfs.org • E-mail: info@wfs.org

World Trends & Forecasts Future View Essay • Urban Planning • Green Enterprise • Ministries

Future View Essay | Futuring

A Curriculum for Foresight What futurists can learn from middle-school educators, and vice versa.

By John C. Lundt Education reformers often invoke the possibility of abandoning the middle-school concept and returning to the K-8 elementary school format. But what might schools, adolescents, and indeed futurists lose?

There are striking similarities between the middleschool model and what futurists have outlined as characteristics necessary for an education that prepares young people for the future. Futurists and middle-school educators share similar worldviews, goals, and ideals, with high regard for the following qualities and values.

• Humanism. A humanistic approach is common to both middle-school educators and futurists. Futurists have a deep-seated positive regard for the nature and

potential of humanity. A central premise of the futures movement is the belief that people have the capacity to shape the future.

In a similar fashion, middle-school educators strive to maximize the development of the human potential.

Middle-school educators recognize that their student population is emerging and developing in an everchanging world. The result is a very dynamic, futurelooking curriculum model.

Middle-school educators strive to understand the nature, characteristics, and needs of their students. They take the time to get to know their students as individuals as well as clients and demonstrate concern for students’ general well-being by actively encouraging them to develop healthy lifestyles that will have life-long benefits. © PAMELA MOORE / ISTOCKPHOTO

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• Pragmatism. Middle-school educators and futurists both tend to be forward-looking, dynamic, and pragmatic. All futurists have a serious interest in what will happen in years to come. They view education as a continual, lifelong process.

Middle-school educators also recognize the dynamic nature of society and strive to meet the needs of their ever-changing student population. Middle-school teachers see themselves as facilitators and encourage their students to actively participate in the learning process. The best middle schools have students who are active learners employing higher-order thinking skills to resolve long-term issues.

Futurists and middle-school teachers generally have a pragmatic rather than ideological approach to life.

Futurists want to know what will work in terms of improving the human condition over the long term.

Middle-­school teachers view curriculum development as a dynamic rather than static process. Both futurists and middle-school educators put their faith in strategies that work.

• Comfort with change. Middle-school educators and futurists are also similar in their approach to the change process. As a group, futurists are more willing than most to change their minds and adopt new positions. They are hospitable to social experiments and innovations. Middle-school educators are also comfortable with change.

Middle schools focus on developing a curriculum that meets the needs of the emerging adolescent population, which means recognizing the dynamic nature of society and of adolescence. As futurists know, an essential part of dealing with change is the ability to operate in the realm of the unknown.

• Interest in exploring the unknown. Futurists have long accepted the idea that absolute answers are not available for every question. Success requires a pro­ active approach, an interest in long-term issues, and the ability to work on problems for which no definitive answers are available.

In similar fashion, the best middle-school programs include a healthy dose of problem solving. Interdisciplinary team activities often include large and small group problem-solving exercises that feature questions for which there are no final or “correct” answers.

• Affinity for interdisciplinary thinking and work.

Futurists have long employed a cross-disciplinary model. Middle-school educators have also long recognized the interdisciplinary nature of the curriculum.

The most effective middle schools acknowledge the relationships between and among the subject areas and favor an interdisciplinary approach to learning.

• Ability to thrive in collaboration. Collaborative interaction in the form of team teaching, team learning,

“Like futurists, or cooperative learning ­middle-school is very much a part both the middle school and ­educators favor a futurist paradigms. As a ­holistic approach to part of their cross-discithe broad-ranging plinary approach, futurarray of ­issues that ists have always operated from a global or face them.” universal, rather than local or nationalistic, perspective.

For many of the same reasons, middle-school educators have favored a collaborative approach to problem solving, and they generally work well with others in group situations. Like futurists, middle-school educators favor a holistic approach to the broad-ranging array of issues that face them.

Future Curricular Needs The futurist movement and the middle-school model clearly share numerous similarities in purpose and strategies, and in many ways the middle-school model fills the needs for education that are most often identified by futurists, including: • Clear thinking, evaluation, and analysis. These skills are not only concerned with the student’s ability to learn cognitive material, but also with the ability to analyze and evaluate information. Middle-school curriculums focus on clear thinking skills that lead to creative solutions to complex problems.

• Understanding the environment. Many excellent interdisciplinary middle-school team projects are centered on science programs that emphasize future ecological needs. Students are actively involved in projects that protect the environment, conserve energy, and recycle resources.

• Accessing information and solving for the unknown. Information access and problem solving have long been a part of the middle-school interdisciplinary curriculum. Through team teaching and cooperative learning activities, middle-school teams have been leaders in the area of creative problem solving. Often these team activities are centered on open-ended questions that do not lend themselves to a single correct answer, but rather have several correct possibilities.

• Personal competence through lifelong learning.

Middle schools are unique among educational institutions in that they were created for a specific philosophical purpose, which is to meet the developmental needs of their student population.

A central part of this philosophy is the recognition of the dynamic nature of the educational mission. Not only are middle-school students involved in the devel-

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World Trends & Forecasts opmental transition from childhood to adulthood, but they now are also doing so at a time when the world around them is undergoing the most rapid rate of change in human history. Better than any other current educational model, the middle-school curriculum addresses this essential need.

• Social diversity and global citizenship. The last skill identified by those writing about the curricular needs of the future is the need for understanding the role of the individual and society, the importance of social diversity, and the responsibilities associated with global citizenship.

Here also, the middle-school curriculum strives to address these issues. Students who work closely with each other and with their teachers in team teaching and cooperative learning activities have an opportunity to interact on a level that can greatly enhance their understanding of both social diversity and the relationship between the individual and society. Middle-school activities such as the advisory program provide excellent opportunities for students to discuss and explore diversity and global citizenship issues and determine their related responsibilities in the world of the future.

It is fair to say that the middle school not only goes a long way toward meeting the educational needs outlined by futurists, but also has the potential to continue to meet developing future needs. While futurists may be correct in their concern for the overall educational picture, they should be careful not to overlook the ability of the middle school to address important needs.

Both futurists and middle-school educators are striving to face the challenges of the future in very similar ways. It would be tragic to abandon an educational model that has the greatest chance of succeeding.

John Lundt, EdD, worked for 35 years in the middle-school area as a teacher, principal, and university professor. He is a professor emeritus at the University of Montana. E-mail johninmt@centric.net.

Urban Planning | Governance

Ecoful Town: A Neighborhood Tour of Green Innovation A city best known for auto making builds a life-sized model of sustainable living.

Toyota City, Japan, is already famous for being the home of international automobile maker Toyota. But as

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COURTESY OF TOYOTA-ECOFULTOWN.COM

Toyota City’s Ecoful Town layout showcases sustainable living at the neighborhood level.

of May 2012, the city has been earning renown for something else: ecological sustainability. That month marked the debut of Ecoful Town, a neighborhoodsized walking tour of innovations that the town is pursuing in renewable energy and energy efficiency, according to a Japanese government press release.

The roads coursing through the Ecoful Town are coated with water-retaining and thermal-insulation substances to minimize heat emission. Complementing the roads is a “demand-responsive” transportation system that can call up a bus to a location any time, as needed.

The buildings in Ecoful Town include a model “smart home” outfitted with solar panels, storage batteries, and an energy-management system, along with a Pavilion that draws energy from solar panels while regulating indoor temperatures passively via a moss covering on its walls. The Pavilion also houses interactive quizzes and videos that educate viewers about Toyota City’s pursuit of low-carbon living.

“Ecoful Town allows us to show visitors from home and abroad how Toyota City is striving to create a lowcarbon society,” says Mayor Toshihiko Ota, in a statement to the press. “We hope we can help popularize this enjoyable, pressure- and waste-free way of life, one that harnesses the latest environmental technologies, in countries around the world.”

Ecoful Town is the product of a consortium of companies, some of them based in the city and some from other locales, who first gathered to form a Toyota City Low-Carbon Society Verification Promotion Council with Toyota City’s municipal leadership. Together, the group has been researching and designing new cleanenergy, energy management, and smart-growth systems that communities such as Toyota City could put to

use. Ecoful Town displays many of these innovations.

“The companies … are cooperating to conduct verification projects for constructing next-generation, lowcarbon energy and society systems. There are some companies, both from inside and outside of the city, participating by supplying our facility their own technology or products which they want to promote,” says says Makoto Shioya, a spokesperson for Ecoful Town.

The city’s residents are paying attention: Home buyers have purchased 67 smart houses in the city. Ecoful is also attracting crowds of visitors from across the country, as well as the heads of foreign governments, international businesses, and universities.

Shioya reports a lot of positive feedback from the visitors, including some who say that they see products on display that they might purchase, and others who say that the facility gives them ideas on how to renovate their own homes and communities.

That’s what the designers had been hoping for, Shioya adds. They wanted Ecoful to be a persuasive test case for home and building construction that is low on energy use and waste, and which keeps its carbon footprint small to nil.

“By presenting a low-carbon city and home life with developed environmental technologies, we are suggesting ways to change our lifestyle to a more comfortable and affordable eco-life with no waste,” says Shioya.

—Rick Docksai Source: Makoto Shioya (interview), Toyota City, http://www.city.toyota .aichi.jp.

Green Enterprise | Commerce

Market for Bioplastics Businesses are developing green alternatives to fossil-fuelbased plastics.

Many consumers don’t know it, but “peak oil” would mean “peak plastic,” since the main ingredients of plastics include oil and natural gas. However, grow-

Be curious. Take risks. Be hopeful. Make a difference.

Change the world’s conversation.

“Our future depends on optimists like Diamandis...even the most skeptical readers will come away from Abundance feeling less gloomy.”

—The New York Times Book review “A manifesto for the future that is grounded in practical solutions addressing the world’s most pressing concerns: overpopulation, food, water, energy, education, health care, and freedom.”

—The wall sTreeT JourNal “A breezy case for optimism... Abundance [is] a godsend for those who suffer from Armageddon fatigue.”

—The ecoNomisT “Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler offer a vision of the future that’s truly awesome in both the most traditional and modern understandings of the word; it’s as big as it as awe inspiring.”

—The FuTurisT

www.simonandschuster.com

Pick up or download your copy today.

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World Trends & Forecasts ing numbers of manufacturers are seeking a renewable alternative in bioplastics, whose ingredients derive from biomass sources such as algae, sugarcane, or soybeans.

A 2012 study by the market research firm Freedonia Group forecasts that demand in the United States for bioplastics will grow by 20% a year through 2016, up from 18.5% a year over the five years prior. Bioplastics constitute less than 1% of plastics today. However, Kent Furst, a Freedonia Group senior analyst, thinks that RICK DOCKSAI

Cases of Dasani water delivered in “plant bottles”—containers made with 30% bio-based plastic.

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they could slowly supplant conventional plastics in the decades ahead.

Many companies are already investing increasing sums into bioplastics research and development, Furst notes. He points out that most analysts expect oil prices to keep rising over time. Meanwhile, bioplastics manufacturing could gradually become cheaper as the technologies and methods improve.

“Where bioplastics may have an advantage is in access to raw materials. Many producers see plant-based raw materials as more stable in terms of price and supply than petrochemical feedstocks,” Furst says.

“We’re starting to Coca-Cola is one of see more brand those producers, according to Melissa Hockstad, owners interested in vice president of science, sustainability, and technology, and regulathis is where we’re tory affairs for the Plasstarting to see a lot tics Industry Trade Association. She says that, in of excitement for May 2009, Coca-Cola be­bioplastics.” gan packaging some of — Melissa Hockstad, its sodas into “plant bottles” that were 30% bioPlastics Industry Trade based polyethylene—a Association bioplastic that producers can synthesize from sugarcane. Although not all Coca-Cola bottles are plant bottles, a growing share are.

“As the months go by I see more and more plant bottles on the store shelves, so it’s definitely growing,” Hockstad says. Pepsi is going a step further, she adds. In 2013, it plans to debut bottles that are 100% bioplastic.

Food supplies are some of the most common uses for bioplastics, Hockstad notes, along with cleaning supplies and agriculture. Even car companies are exploring bioplastics’ potential. Hockstad cites Ford, which began installing headrests made of soybean-based foam into its cars this year.

Hockstad attributes some of businesses’ interest in bio­plastics to a growing focus on sustainability. Business leaders increasingly see value in using materials that do minimal harm to the environment’s health— materials such as bioplastics.

“Some of the questions they’re starting to ask is ‘where are the materials coming from?’ and ‘What are the uses?’” she says. “We’re starting to see more brand owners interested in sustainability, and this is where we’re starting to see a lot of excitement for bioplastics.”

Conventional plastics are still cheaper. Furst emphasizes that bioplastics and their bio-based sources are

new, so they will need time to improve and become more economical.

“The plastics industry has had the better part of a century to perfect the chemistry and manufacturing processes to create better and better materials. Bioplastics such as PLA [polyactic acid] are always going to be playing catch-up in this area,” he says.

PLA is the bioplastic that the Freedonia Group report forecasts will be the most extensively used. This compound has some downsides, though: It doesn’t decompose, and, since it closely resembles other plastics, recycling centers’ automated systems have difficulty sorting it out from them—a problem because different products require different plastics.

“Because PLA is such a new material, most automatic systems are not equipped to handle it. This is a substantial detriment to the environmental attractiveness of PLA,” Furst says.

Innovation may help, however. Several new recycling companies that specialize in PLA recycling have already debuted, and as PLA becomes more widely used, other recyclers may eventually install new systems that can identify PLA, according to Furst.

Bio-based polyethylene (PE) is another bioplastic that corporations heavily favor, according to the report.

Furst credits the relatively easy extraction process: PE derives from plant-based ethanol, which is already a well-established fuel source in many countries, and it is “identical” to synthetic PE, so companies that have been manufacturing PE for years can easily switch over.

“This technology is already well-established,” he says.

That PE and other bioplastics need biofuel crops raises concern among critics who object to setting aside more farmland for biofuels. Larry Koester, vice president of communication for the Society of Plastics Engineers’ Environmental Division, argues that the world more urgently needs that farmland for food.

“I grew up on a farm, and I know how hard it is to grow corn. I don’t want to see it converted into a gasoline or a plastic,” says Koester.

He’s more amenable, though, to the use of sugarcane.

Bio­plastics made from sugarcane use the leftover plant stocks of already-harvested crops, so the farmers do not need to allocate any land for them.

“That chemistry works. I don’t know about the eco-

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World Trends & Forecasts nomics of it, but there’s no question about the chemistry,” says Koester.

Furst, like Koester, also sees hope in developing bioplastics from “waste” plant stock as a means to obtain plastics without sacrificing farmland. Switchgrass and rice hulls are two examples, in addition to sugarcane, that he considers promising.

“If this is commercialized, it would significantly reduce the carbon footprint and make bioplastics a true boon for the environment,” he says.

—Rick Docksai

ROAR.PRO

Sources: Kent Furst, The Freedonia Group.The report Bioplastics (published 06/2012, 240 pages) is available for $4,900 from The Freedonia Group Inc., www.freedoniagroup.com.

Melissa Hockstad, Plastics Industry Trade Association, www.plastics industry.org.

Larry Koester, Society of Plastics Engineers, www.sperecycling.org.

Ministries | Humanity

The Rise of mChurches: From Mega to Mobile

Portfolio of mobile apps developed by ROAR for ministry clients.

Communicating with congregations in the social-­media era challenges church leaders.

If you’re looking for an institutional role model for communicating with customers, turn your eyes upward to churches. After all, publishing’s first bestseller was—and is—the Bible.

Christian churches in the United States have often been early (or at least rapid) adopters of new technologies to spread messages of faith to the masses. For example, the televangelism trend of the 1970s turned

Correction In the September-October 2012 Books in Brief section, a review of Karen Sands’s book Visionaries Have Wrinkles (Broad Minded Publishing, 2012) misidentified the professions of the author and of story subject Carolyn Conger. Sands is a professional futurist, gerontologist, Master Certified Coach, and motivational speaker. Conger is a psychologist, psychoimmunologist, consultant, and teacher of mind/body techniques for optimum health. We regret the error.

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megachurches into media empires. In the 1980s and 1990s, many churches adopted the technologically sophisticated theatrical lighting and sound designs pioneered for Broadway.

So the next big things in missionary outreach should not be very surprising: social networking and mobile apps that connect even more individuals to communities of faith.

In addition to live-streaming a weekly sermon, for instance, a church’s mobile strategy could include allowing congregations to connect and share more with each other directly, says Matt McKee, CEO of ROAR, a social media company that works with churches and other nonprofits. This may be especially important to minority ministries, he believes.

“We feel like we’re empowering urban communities to use technology because of the reasonable costs for development and the expertise we bring to the table,” McKee says. “We have a new partnership with T. D. Jakes Ministries and we’re working with churches like Church Without Walls in Houston, and these experiences are helping us reach out to more groups like them.”

—Cynthia G. Wagner Source: ROAR, http://ROAR.pro.

❑

Back Issues of The Futurist September-October 2012

(Volume 46, No. 5) The New Age of Space Business • Regulating the Final Frontier • Serving Justice with Conversational Law • Rescuing the Mind of Africa • Special Report: The 22nd Century at First Light: Envisioning Life in the Year 2100

July-August 2012

(Volume 46, No. 4) The Abundance Builders • The Secret Life of Data in the Year 2020 • The Individual in a Networked World: Two Scenarios • From Smart House to Networked Home • Building and Connecting Communities for the Future • Integrated and Innovative: The Future of Regions • Revolutionary Health: Local Solutions for Global Health Problems • Preview of Future Inventions

May-June 2012

(Volume 46, No. 3) A Thousand Years Young • Engineering the Future of Food • Unlimiting Energy’s Growth • Futurists Review the 2012 Consumer Electronics Show • The Future of the Commercial Sex Industry • Anticipating an “Anything Goes” World of Online Porn • To Predict or to Build the Future? Reflections on the Field and Differences between Foresight and La Prospective

March-April 2012

(Volume 46, No. 2) Nuclear Power’s Unsettled Future • A World Wide Mind: The Coming Collective Telempathy • Thriving in the Automated Economy • Hard at Work in the Jobless Future • Rethinking “Return on Investment”: What We Really Need to Invest In • A Future of Fewer Words? Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language • From the Three Rs to the Four Cs: Radically Redesigning K-12 Education • Toward Better Space-Weather Forecasts

January-February 2012 Back Issues

THE FUTURIST has been published continuously since 1967. Back issues are available (print or PDF) for $5.95 each (plus $4.90 postage and handling for total order of print editions). Most issues for the past 10 years can be supplied.

Call 1-800-989-8274 (weekdays 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time) or use secure online ordering at www.wfs.org/backissues.

(Volume 46, No. 1) Eight Grand Challenges for Human Advancement • One Response to the Eight Grand Challenges • The Best Predictions of 2011 • Innovating the Future: From Ideas to Adoption • Welcome to the Future Cloud: Five Bets for 2025

November-December 2011

(Volume 45, No. 6) Lost and Found in Japan • Updating the Global Scorecard: The 2011 State of the Future • Reconnecting to Nature in the Age of Technology • Investigating the Future: Lessons from the “Scene of the Crime” • The Search for Global Solutions: Moving from Vision to Action • Special Report: Outlook 2012

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Whatever to Western The Cultural Crisis, 20 Years Later

In 1993, THE FUTURIST published author Richard Eckersley’s provocative essay, “The West’s Deepening Cultural Crisis.” Here, he looks back at what has happened since, and forward to what the next 20 years might hold.

F

or a while, things were looking up.

Twenty years ago, I argued that Western culture was in crisis, marked by increasing pessimism about the future and declining wellbeing, especially among youth.

Other serious problems we faced— the intractable economic difficulties, widening social gulf, and worsening environmental degradation—were also fundamentally problems of culture, of beliefs and moral priorities.

Readers responded strongly, and mostly positively, to the essay. In a poll run by THE FUTURIST, 84% agreed that Western culture was failing to provide a sense of meaning, belonging, and purpose, and a framework of values; 63% said most people in Western nations were pessimistic about the future; 57% agreed

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that excessive individualism was a problem in Western cultures.

The 1990s seemed to offer new hope. The dot-com and biotech booms were heralded as the beginning of an era of unlimited and sustainable economic growth and prosperity. Several of the adverse trends in young people’s well-being began to improve in countries like the United States, where the declines had been most pronounced. Climate change made it onto the political agenda, nationally and ­internationally.

Then things changed again. Events such as 9/11 and other terrorist attacks, the West’s waging of protracted and unpopular wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the rise of the East, notably China, to challenge the West’s economic and political supremacy all contributed. Then the

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global financial crisis struck in 2008.

“Declinology” has now become a new theme in public debate and discussion about Western civilization.

Beneath the economic and political ebb and flow over the past two decades, the West’s cultural crisis never really went away. Throughout the 1990s and into the 2000s, surveys continued to reveal public disquiet about “the frenzied, excessive quality of life today” (as a 1995 American survey put it). And this crisis had an increasingly tangible outcome as new research revealed more about the extent and seriousness of youth health problems.

“Culture” isn’t simply about groups having distinctive costumes, songs, dances, or prayers. Culture brings order and meaning to our lives. Of all species, we alone require

?

Happened Civilization

By Richard Eckersley

ART © DR AFTER 123 / ISTOCKPHOTO

a culture to give us reasons to live, to address the fundamental questions of life: Who am I? Where have I come from? Why am I here? There are many cultural paths we can follow; this is the source of our extraordinary diversity and versatility. But it is also a danger: We can lose our way.

Deepening Pessimism In 1993, I said of the United States that reports and surveys revealed a nation that was confused, divided, and scared, suffering its worst crisis of confidence in 30 years. The same was true of other Western countries, including my own, Australia. Today, the situation is arguably worse. In 2011, Time magazine reported a poll showing that the United States is going through “one of its longest sustained periods of unhappiness and pessimism ever,” adding that it is “hard to overstate what a fundamental change this represents.”

Two-thirds of Americans (68%) believed that the past decade was one of decline, not progress, for the

United States and that the greatest threat to its long-term stability came from within, not from outside, the country (66%). About half said that the past decade was one of the worst in the past 100 years (47%) and that American children today would be worse off when they grew up (52%) than people were now. In a 2006 ­European survey, 60% said that, for most people in their country, life was getting worse.

Australia ranks at or near the top of many international comparisons of quality of life and development.

Unlike the United States and Europe, it escaped the global financial crisis relatively unscathed: There was no recession, unemployment didn’t rise, and national debt is manageable. A refrain in public debate is that Australians have nothing to whine about. Yet, the public mood in Australia is sour; dissatisfaction with government is high. In a 2009 survey, only 24% of people said quality of life in Australia was getting better.

In another 2009 survey, Australians generally saw themselves as being www.wfs.org

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richer, but unhappier (or no happier), than they were in the previous few decades. While 77% said Australians’ material standard of living was higher than 20 years ago, 58% felt that emotional well-being was lower. As one market researcher put it, people see the world as a glass half empty, although they are determined to see their personal lives as a glass half full.

In contrast to people’s high levels of personal happiness and life satisfaction, many studies over the past few decades have revealed their anger and anxiety about the changes in Western societies. The concerns include excessive greed and selfishness, consumerism, too much competition and too little compassion, the loss of community, growing pressures on families, and drugs, crime, and violence. There is a common perception that, with individual freedom and material abundance, people don’t seem to know “where to stop,” or now have “too much of a good thing.”

So the pessimistic mood goes far deeper than politics and the perfor-

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mance of governments, although people may not fully grasp the reasons for their disquiet. The disenchantment is systemic, reflecting the reality that the social trajectory of our health and well-being—of our quality of life—is now downwards (setting aside the offsetting benefits of medical advances and other specific interventions).

Declining Youth Well-Being In the 1993 article, I looked especially at the health of young people, who reflect best the tenor and tempo of the times because they are growing up in them. Furthermore, their attitudes, lifestyle choices, and illnesses will affect their health in later years, so shaping the health of the entire population.

I pointed to the rising rates among youth in many Western nations of suicide, drug and alcohol abuse, depression and other mental health problems, and crime. The next decade showed improvements in at least some measures, including suicide and crime; an American composite index of child and youth well-­ being, which had been falling since its starting point in 1975, began to rise from 1995. Public commentary about Gen Y (aka, the millennials) has been generally more positive than it was about their predecessors, Gen X. However, experts believe that the war against drugs is still being lost.

The United States is experiencing an epidemic of prescription-drug abuse, which is now driving a sustained rise in drug-related deaths. Heavy drinking remains a concern, and alcohol- and drug-related public violence is a serious problem in many Western countries. More importantly, we now have a much better understanding of the extent of the decline in young people’s health and well-being over several generations, and of its causes.

Rising rates of diabetes and other health risks associated with increasing obesity have led to predictions that, barring new medical treatments, the life expectancy of today’s 18

THE FUTURIST

youth will fall. More disturbing are the trends in mental health, which accounts for by far the biggest share of the “burden of disease” in young people (measured as disability-­ adjusted life years, or lost years of healthy life). Although the trends remain contested among researchers, the weight of evidence suggests a marked decline in psychological well-being.

One American study, comparing the results of a widely used psychological test going back to the 1930s, found a steady decline in the mental health of college students between 1938 and 2007: Five times as many college students now score high enough on the test to indicate psy-

“We now have a much better understanding of the extent of the decline in young people’s health and well-being over several generations, and of its causes.” chological problems, compared with 1938. And a large survey of American college freshmen found that their emotional health had fallen in 2010 to the lowest level since the survey began in 1985.

A British study found that adolescents experienced considerably higher rates of emotional problems in 2006 than they did in 1986. The greatest changes were for worry, irritability, fatigue, sleep disturbance, panic, and feeling worn out or under strain; the more severe the reported symptoms, the larger the increase over the two decades.

Recent results of national surveys conducted by the American College Health Association show that large proportions of students report strong negative emotions. In the 2011 survey, more than 80% had, in the

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previous 12 months, felt exhausted and overwhelmed by all they had to do; 30%–60% had felt very lonely, very sad, overwhelming anxiety or anger, that things were hopeless, or so depressed that it was difficult to function. From 10% to more than 50% had experienced these emotions in the previous two weeks.

Exactly what the findings mean for young people’s health and wellbeing is not clear. They are certainly not the whole story. Had they been asked, 80%–90% of the students would have said they were happy and satisfied with their lives; most would be leading seemingly normal lives, attending lectures, completing assignments, working, partying, and dating. At the same time, these findings reveal something about being young today, and about the pressures young people face.

At the societal level, changes in the family, work, education, the mass and social media, religion, governance, and environmental pollution all play a role in this decline in health and well-being. At a more personal level, there are the changes in diet, outdoor play, the experience of nature, physical activity, sleep, peer relations, drug and alcohol use, and sexual activity. A particular concern today is the sexualization and commodification of childhood, as children are pressured at an ever younger age to be popular, look good, do well, and follow the latest consumer fashions and fads.

Linked to these trends are more intangible changes associated with increasing materialism and individualism. Both are defining characteristics of modern Western culture; both have conferred benefits to people, including to their health and well-­ being. However, both are now exacting rising costs to well-being.

These costs include a heightened sense of risk, uncertainty, and in­ security; a lack of clear frames of reference; a rise in personal expectations, coupled with a perception that the onus of success lies with the individual, despite the continuing importance of social position; an excess of freedom and choice, which is experienced as a threat or tyranny; the con-

strual of the self as independent and separate from others; and a shift from intrinsic to extrinsic values and goals.

These cultural shifts toward excessive materialism and individualism are not just a matter of greater vanity, selfishness, and greed (although many people express concerns about these traits), or simply the manufactured desire to “have more stuff.”

They lead to an unrelenting pressure to focus on what we make of our lives, to fashion identity and meaning increasingly from personal attributes, achievements, possessions, and lifestyles, and less from shared cultural traditions and beliefs.

This emphasis is a recipe for disappointment, depression, and anxiety. It distracts people from what is most important to well-being: the quality of their relationships with each other and the world, which, ideally, contribute to a deep and enduring sense of intrinsic worth and existential security. Asked what he

had learned from a long-running study of the lives of a group of over 260 Harvard students in the 1930s, psychiatrist George Vaillant replied, “That the only thing that really matters in life are your relationships to other people.”

Sociologist Zygmunt Bauman argues that social ills have their source in today’s “individualized society of consumers,” with consuming more being the “sole road to inclusion,” and “existential uncertainty” now a universal human condition. A new study of Finnish students’ fears for the future gives intriguing insight into these more abstract aspects of well-being, including the role of the fear of death (see box below).

Health and well-being are more than just a consequence of changing social conditions. They are an important, and underestimated, dynamic in society, affecting our resilience and how we respond to social changes and challenges.

The Mismeasure of Progress

The past decade or so has seen a remarkable surge in interest in measuring the progress of societies (“Is Life Really Getting Better?” THE FUTURIST, January 1999). The debate has focused on adequacy of economic indicators, notably per capita income or GDP, as measures of a nation’s performance, relative to the past and to other countries. Measures of subjective well-being, especially happiness and life satisfaction, are attracting particular attention.

Other widely used indicators in comparing nations include health (measured as life expectancy), education, human rights, governance (including political freedom and corruption), and equality.

These indicators place Western liberal democracies at the leading edge of progress, and present them as models for less-developed nations.

Young People’s Fears for the Future: Less Global, More Personal

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new study in Finland casts fascinating light on changes in young people’s world and well-being (“Fears for the future among Finnish adolescents in 1983-2007,” Journal of Adolescence, August 2012). It assessed changes in fears for the future of Finnish youth, based on adolescent health and lifestyle surveys carried out in 1983, 1997, and 2007.

A total of 17,750 students aged 12–18 were asked an open question: “When you think about your life and the future in general, what three things do you fear the most?”

Surprisingly, fear of war and terrorism fell, from 81% in 1983 to 56% in 1997 and 11% in 2007, as did fear of environmental disasters (11%, 31%, 7%). Fear about work and education did not change much (work, 42%, 36%, 40%; education, 11%, 10%, 15%), again surprising given the changes in these domains over the decades.

However, other, more personal fears rose: failure and making wrong choices (7%, 8%, 16%), future family and partnership (7%, 10%, 14%), loneliness (5%, 6%, 20%), accidents (6%, 8%, 12%), health (16%, 34%, 41%), and death (17%, 21%, 39%).

The authors, led by Pirjo Lindfors, conclude that perceptions of risks have become more individualized, thus supporting latemodernist theory. The results highlight the fact that adolescents’

images of the future act as a mirror of the times, reflecting the values and ethos of society and its social and cultural norms and their changes over time.

“Cultural and societal changes, including emphasis on individual choice and increased uncertainty, seem to create perceptions of uneasiness and insecurity in young people’s transitions to adulthood,” the authors write.

The existential dimension of the analysis can be taken further.

In psychology, terror management theory argues that fear of our mortality is a powerful motivation for humans, and we construct personal and cultural means to manage it, to allow us to accept the inevitability of death—worldviews, values, beliefs, rituals. So the Finnish findings, showing increased fear of death, might be evidence of how Western culture is failing us.

Existential psychologist Paul Wong says that life is defined by its fragility and finiteness, and death holds the key to authentic living: “To live fully, we need to accept death through meaningmaking,” he says. Asked about the Finnish findings, he told me: “I believe that one of the main reasons for an increase in fear of death among young people is the steady decline in people’s interest in developing a philosophy of life or quest for meaning, which will lead to a decline in well-being.”

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For example, Western nations occupied the top 10 positions, and 17 of the top 20, in the 2011 UN Human Development Index, which is based on life expectancy, literacy and educational enrollment, and per capita income.

According to the first UN World Happiness Report, the happiest countries in the world are Denmark, Norway, Finland, and the Netherlands. The story is much the same with most other indices, with the New World countries of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand also doing well. Only when environmental indicators, such as the ecological footprint, are included does this order change significantly.

But even the new and expanded measures are still missing a critical dimension of human well-being: the more intangible, cultural, moral, and existential aspects of life that reflect and reveal the depths of the human psyche and the complexities of human affairs. Replacing or supplementing money with happiness or life satisfaction as a measure won’t do the trick. Although well-being research has revealed the importance of things other than money, there remains a substantial gap in the new progress measures, even those incorporating subjective well-being.

Orthodox approaches underestimate the degree to which “progress” as we measure it is contributing to an existential deficit that is affecting the health and well-being of all of us, rich and poor alike. This additional “psychosocial dynamics” perspective is largely absent from the political, and even scientific, debate about progress.

To a significant extent, conventional indicators and models of progress are measuring Westernization or modernization, rather than optimal social progress or development.

While the concepts may overlap, they are not the same thing. At best, the qualities being measured may be desirable, even necessary, but are not sufficient. At worst, the benefits of Western culture are being counted, but not its costs, which are formi­ dable and growing (note Finland’s position as one of the happiest coun20

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tries, while fears about death, health, failure, and loneliness rise among its youth—see box on page 19).

The tension or contradiction is seen clearly with both materialism and individualism. International comparisons suggest that rising material wealth is a national positive (even if it has diminishing benefits); yet, it requires and reinforces a cultural and moral context that promotes materialistic values that are harmful to well-being. Similarly, individual freedom is seen as a major component of progress and development, but freedom, too, comes at a cost when it is pushed too far, and becomes a form of social abandonment or isolation.

The Case for “Pessimistic Hope” Twenty years ago, I could still see a positive future for humanity, despite the deepening crisis I described. Today I am more pessimistic. Like an increasing number of scientists, futurists, and others, I now believe it is too late to avoid widespread calamities arising from climate change, resource depletion, and other global developments (see “Global MegaCrisis” by William E. Halal and Michael Marien, THE FUTURIST, May-June 2011). I realized about five years ago, with the evidence of accelerating global warming, that we’d left it too late; and we are continuing to leave it too late. As well as being a real threat, climate change is also a symbol of humanity’s wider predicament.

I linked the cultural crisis to several effects of science, but also saw science as helping us through it.

Only science, I suggested, was powerful enough to persuade us to re­ direct its power, to convince us of the seriousness of our situation, to strengthen our resolve to do something about it, and to guide what we do. Yet, the past few years have seen a remarkable rise in public and political questioning, even rejection, of climate-change science.

I saw hope in a growing compatibility, a reconciliation, between sci-

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entific and spiritual views of the world. Instead, we’ve seen a backlash by scientists and others against the rise of religious fundamentalism, some of it as “fundamentalist” as the religion they denounce. It is “a dialogue of the deaf,” says Swiss philosopher Alain de Botton.

Still, I could be wrong. I remember the dire predictions in the 1970s of what lay in store for humanity in the decades that have now passed— without their being fulfilled (although the science behind the predictions was much less developed then). We can only face the future with hope; but for there to be hope, we have to confront reality unflinchingly. Let’s call it “pessimistic hope.”

Ever since the 1960s, we have declared the next decade to be the decade of reckoning, the time when we must deal with global environmental problems such as climate change, land and water degradation, food security, peak oil, population growth, and biodiversity loss. And as each decade passed without the necessary action being taken, we postponed the deadline another 10 years. With the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen conference on climate change, the 2010s are now the critical decade for action. By the decade’s end, the environmental “emergency” will have lasted half a century and spanned two generations. Will we have acted decisively by then?

Indeed, one of the most striking things when we look back over the last 20 years is the resilience of the status quo, the persistence in Western democracies of a politics that, explicitly and implicitly, sees no need to move beyond a worldview of unending material progress, despite the disenchantment of their citizens and the evident failure of material progress to deliver on its promise to keep making life better.

It is not that nothing worthwhile has been achieved; it is that not enough has been achieved with “politics as usual” approaches. This deep current of systemic and sustained political failure remains largely ignored, while politicians, commentators, and analysts focus on the swirling surface eddies of politi-

cal theater and policy detail. If the deeper perspective were more widely recognized and part of public and political debate, there would be more incentive for governments to respond to it.

Fixing this situation goes beyond politics; it requires leadership at all levels of society. But politics has a role to play. Both politicians and the electorates they serve must have the courage to enact sweeping policy changes that shift the course of the deep current, not just stir up the surface eddies.

Making these changes would mean recognizing that economic growth measures progress very imperfectly, that the content of growth is more important than its rate, and that we need to direct economic activity away from private consumption for short-term personal gratification toward long-term public

investment in the social transformation necessary to address all the challenges of our century and to ensure our future.

Radical reforms could include, for example: • Limiting or banning political donations by corporations and other vested interests.

• Putting a sufficiently high price on carbon and other sources of environmental degradation (some countries have introduced a carbon price).

• Abolishing tax deductibility for advertising to ease the pressures on us to spend and spend.

• Creating jobs where they are socially needed and useful, not where confected demand dictates.

Beyond the policy specifics, however, I believe that we need to change Western culture: the stories, symbols, and metaphors by which

Redefining the Self

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ne specific example of how a cultural redefinition might take place—encouraging self-interested, competitive individualists to become, instead, more altruistic and cooperative—is by changing how we construe the self.

When I was at school we were taught that the atom was made up of solid particles, with electrons whizzing around the nucleus like planets orbiting the sun.

Now, we think of the atom as more like a fuzzy cloud of electrical charges. Similarly, we currently think of the self as a discrete, bio­logical being with various needs it seeks to satisfy. Like atoms combining into molecules, we form and dissolve bonds with other separate selves to create and terminate relationships. Sociologists talk of modern society as one of “atomized” individuals.

What if we were to see the self not as a separate physical entity, but as a fuzzy cloud of relational forces and fields? This would be a self of many relationships, inextricably linking us to other people and other things and entities. Some are close and intense, as in a love affair or within families; some are more distant and diffuse, as in a sense of community or place or national or ethnic identity; and some may be more subtle, but still powerful, as in a spiritual connection or a love of ­nature.

These relationships can wax and wane, vary in intensity and charge (positive or negative). Importantly, they never end—for example, the break-up of a marriage, or the death of a parent or child, does not “end” the relationship, but just changes it.

Transforming how we see the self in this way—as a fuzzy cloud of relationships—would change profoundly how we see our relationships to others and to the world. It would, for example, reduce Western culture’s fear of death, and all that means for well-being. It brings us closer to how indigenous people see the self, and represents one way that scientific and spiritual views can be compatible.

It would alter radically our personal choices and our social and political goals.

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we define ourselves, our lives, and our goals—and so our politics.

The magnitude of this transformation will be akin to that from the Middle Ages to the Enlightenment, from the medieval mind to the modern mind. Just as it was impossible for the medieval mind to anticipate the modern, or the modern to imagine itself back into the medieval, so it is impossible for us today to anticipate what might follow the modern mind.

However, the seeds of the Enlightenment were sown in the Middle Ages, including the turmoil of the fourteenth century and the devastation of the Black Death; and so, too, are the seeds of a new consciousness being sown in the chaos of modern times. While the earlier revolution spanned centuries, the advances in education and communication could allow a new cultural revolution to happen in decades.

In A Distant Mirror (Knopf, 1978), historian Barbara Tuchman states that Christianity provided “the matrix and law of medieval life, omnipresent, indeed compulsory.” Its insistent principle was that “the life of the spirit and of the afterworld was superior to the here and now, to material life on earth.… The rupture of this principle and its replacement by belief in the worth of the individual and of an active life not necessarily focused on God is, in fact, what created the modern world and ended the Middle Ages.”

This transition produced the great social and political movements of the nineteenth century that shattered many assumptions of what was “normal” at that time: epidemics of infectious disease, child labor, the buying and selling of human life, the oppressed status of women, the appalling working conditions in “dark, Satanic mills.” We now face another rupture or discontinuity in our view of ourselves, in what it is to be human, that will change profoundly how we live (see box, “Redefining the Self”).

There are signs this process has begun, although its direction is not yet established, and it remains largely invisible in politics and public affairs

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For Further Reading: Richard Eckersley in THE FUTURIST “The West’s Deepening Cultural Crisis,” NovemberDecember 1993, pp. 8-12.

Growing crime rates, increasing drug problems, rampant violence, and widespread depressive illness are all signs of Western culture’s deepening crisis. See also: “Dialogue on Despair: Assessing the West’s Cultural ­Crisis,” March-April 1994, pp. 16-20.

“Is Life Really Getting Better?” January 1999, pp. 23-26.

Most people assume that “progress” means more of everything—more money, more technologies, more things to buy, bigger houses and cars, etc. But shouldn’t we be asking whether “more” is better?

“A New World View Struggles to Emerge,” SeptemberOctober 2004, pp. 20-24.

Are we seeing the emergence of a new view of what makes life worth living?

“Nihilism, Fundamentalism, or Activism: Three Responses to Fears of the Apocalypse,” January-February 2008, pp. 35-39.

Widespread fears of an apocalyptic future elicit equally dangerous responses: nihilistic thoughts and decadent lifestyles that accelerate environmental destruction, or fundamentalist intolerance that exacerbates social-­political conflict. The only safe approach to suspicions of the apocalypse may be adaptation through activism.

“Doomsday Scenarios: How the World May Go On without Us,” November-December 2001, pp. 20-23.

Homo sapiens may receive its evolutionary pink slip by 2050, according to authors tracking “spikes” in technology and population.

(see “A New World View Struggles t o E m e rg e , ” T H E F U T U R I S T, September-October 2004, and “Nihilism, Fundamentalism, or Activism: Three Responses to Fears of the Apocalypse,” THE FUTURIST, January-February 2008).

The emergence and growth of a new culture and consciousness will not—now—spare us from troubled and turbulent times. Rather, events will powerfully influence the course that the transformation takes, the shape of things to come after the turmoil. They could help or hinder: provide the moral force for urgent action, or preoccupy us with crisis management.

Writers like Rebecca Solnit (A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities that Arise in Disasters, Vi k i n g , 2 0 0 9 ) a n d J u n o t D í a z (“Apocalypse: What Disasters Reveal,” Boston Review, May-June 2011) have described the revelatory, and potentially revolutionary, nature of disasters. Not only can they bring out the best in us, and connect and empower us, but they also lay bare 22

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the social conditions and choices that often cause or contribute to disasters, delivering a societal shock that makes change possible.

Díaz uses the 2010 earthquake to argue that Haiti is not only the most visible victim of our civilization but also a sign of what is to come. Even before the earthquake, Haiti was reeling, and it needed only the slightest shove to send it into catastrophe. In the process of causing things to fall apart, he says, apocalyptic catastrophes also give us “a chance to see aspects of our world that we as a society seek to run from, that we hide behind veils of denial.”

Apocalypses are also opportunities: “chances for us to see ourselves, to take responsibility for what we see, to change.”

Creating a new human story, a new awareness of ourselves, represents a “no regrets” strategy. It might yet allow us to avoid global mayhem (as I said, I could be wrong). In the event that calamities strike, it would mitigate their effects by enhancing our personal and social resilience

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and preparedness. But even in the absence of the threat of catastrophe, it would improve our quality of life.

Even if we did not confront social, environmental, and economic limits and breakdowns, optimizing our health and happiness requires transformational change.

The next 20 years will settle this issue (if it isn’t settled already). We will know by then the extent to which we are locked into global crises, and if so, what we can do to minimize their impacts and to shape the world that lies on the far side.

We may no longer be able to get out of the mess we’re creating for ourselves, but we can get through it.

There is still plenty to dream of, and to strive for. ❑ About the Author Richard Eckersley is an independent researcher and writer (www.richardeckersley .com.au), and a founding director of Australia21, a nonprofit research company (www.australia21.org.au).

In Search of the

“Better Angels” of Our Future

By Kenneth B. Taylor

The ideologies that once guided us through political and economic conflicts— such as communism versus capitalism—have little relevance to cultures that face new, technologically driven conflicts over the very meaning of humanity. As we relentlessly pursue paradigm-altering technologies, we will need a new set of guidelines for understanding who we are and where we are heading.

ART © NIHAT DURSUN / ISTOCKPHOTO

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W

e live at a time when striving for higher social ideals no longer guides most individual or social action. The epic battle against communism has essentially been won, and many in the West now assume that all necessary work has been done, our liberties and rights guaranteed through established rule of law.

Unfortunately, this development has stripped the human condition of transcendent sociopolitical objectives, leaving us floundering in a web of short-term economic liberalism or regressing to more primitive religious, nationalistic, or tribal perspectives. Capitalism (and, with it, materialism) reigns supreme, and as a guiding light leads us nowhere: It can tell us how best to organize our economic affairs, but not where humanity is going or what our meaning is.

We are now on the cusp of two major long-term developments transforming our world. First, during this century, human civilization will move into its climactic stage: The assumptions we make about our daily socioeconomic environment, upon which we orient our lives, will become increasingly untenable. Second, science is discovering means to amplify its mastery over the foundations of life in general and Homo ­sapiens in particular, signifying that we are gaining control over who we b ­ ecome.

What we are about to face is unprecedented, and we are woefully unprepared for the challenge. To navigate this increasingly turbulent world, we need a new ideology to guide our actions, provide meaning, and protect the achievements of modern civilization.

Approaching the Limits of Enlightenment Ideals?

Elements of a new secular ideology are all around us, yet scattered so widely that they fail to register in our 24

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collective awareness. Before outlining the features of this new ideology, it will be worthwhile to briefly investigate where we have come from and why limits are approaching.

As the Enlightenment dawned during the seventeenth century, a powerful, transformative ideology emerged that led to the Western world we now live in. It seized the human imagination, harnessed passions, and directed collective effort.

It created a social movement that swept away the vestiges of monarchy embedded in the mercantilist order, giving rise to democracy and capitalism. There were numerous contributors to the associated body of thought we call the liberal tradition, cumulatively giving rise to the first secular ideology. Emphasis shifted within society to the rights of individuals, the social contract, and the common good.

Many of the principles of the liberal tradition are embodied in the ethos of progress, a summative perspective now spreading around the world. In brief, this ethos is built upon the following pillars: • Rationally generated ideas will lead to triumph over the external world as well as inner human ­nature.

• All people are created equal and should be provided with equivalent opportunities within an egalitarian meritocracy under the rule of law.

• Social, individual, and material improvement is inevitable and upward.

The collective outcome for a people adhering to this ethos was forecast to be provision of lasting freedom, the greatest good for the greatest number, with justice and peace nourished in this world. Given the clear reward in one’s lifetime, as opposed to the hereafter, this social philosophy had wide appeal. It was quickly embraced, becom-

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ing the antithesis to the mercantilist thesis of the day.

Despite subsequent wars, depressions, and revolutions, all went ­exceptionally well on the socioeconomic front until the early twentyfirst century. The Western crisis of 2008 will not mark the beginning of the end, but rather the end of the beginning of Western civilization as we know it.

Recent developments have been germinating since the mid-twentieth century, during which time Western nations gradually backed themselves into an existential corner. It is a predicament without easy retreat for many reasons, including fiscal constraints, vested interests, political intransience, unfavorable demography, and diminishing Earth capacity.

Too many policies related to economic growth and welfare were enacted, institutionalized, and progressively expanded, with payment for current expenditures shifted onto the shoulders of future generations. This can go on only if new entrants exceed the number already involved— that is, if the labor force grows and a youthful demographic pyramid structure continues. Once the demographic pyramid inverts, it is only a matter of time before the scheme becomes unsustainable.

And so the trigger event heralding the end of Western civilization as we know it will not be the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008 (and subsequent Great Recession), but rather the inversion of the demographic pyramids in the West, with the inexorable effect of pushing population growth below replacement levels. Before the year 2020, fully half of humankind will live in countries where fertility rates are at or below replacement level.

Even if politicians do find a way to engineer a safe way out of the current financial morass, the slowdown and eventual decline of national populations in the context of high public debt will negate the possibility of maintaining many social programs, or even maintaining existing public infrastructure.

Collectively, these are the reasons why surpassing the previous heights

of socioeconomic success is un­ tenable: The socioeconomic tide is turning, producing powerful under­ currents that should not be underestimated.

Riding the Waves of Technological Advancement As population begins to shrink from this height, so, too, will economic output, with its undesirable negative externalities. The ensuing population decline will have almost as dramatic an effect pushing global GDP down as it had in pushing it up these past 250 years. However, we will never return to the standard of living of 1800 due to the cumulative effects of scientific and technological advancement.

The late business professor Julian Simon once suggested that the Earth‘s carrying capacity is unlimited. While it is mathematically impossible for Earth to accommodate an unlimited number of people, ­Simon based his statement on faith in human ingenuity, particularly technological progress. He believed in the “technofix” hypothesis: that technology and innovative solutions will be forthcoming, adequate, and timely in addressing major human problems.

I agree with the “forthcoming” part but have reservations about the “adequate and timely” portion of ­S imon’s presumptions. An important issue is that technology appears to occur in unpredictable waves. In the 1930s, Joseph Schumpeter postulated an economic growth model in which bursts of technological development cyclically set off periods of intense competition between firms for market dominance, leading to a transformation of the economic landscape. Schumpeter saw capitalism moving in long waves occurring approximately every 50 years. When a technological wave commenced, it would cause, as Schumpeter famously put it, “gales of creative destruction,” in which sunset industries would be swept away, to be replaced by sunrise industries.

From Schumpeter’s vantage point in the mid-twentieth century, the

waves indeed looked to occur every 50 years or so, but today we understand that technological waves are neither regular nor predictable. We now know that, whenever they occur, each comes with a core of what we may call meta-technologies: general-­p urpose technologies that affect the economy widely and deeply (e.g., harnessing electricity or the computer chip).

So far, there have been five such meta-technology waves, beginning with the introduction of the steam engine and factory in the late eighteenth century. Since the early 1970s, we have been experiencing the fifth wave, centered on all the technologies and innovations emerging from the computer chip.

Each meta-technology becomes a platform for related developments.

ductivity—adds to the headwinds of the Western financial conundrum, making viable solutions elusive and socioeconomic pain protracted.

Economist Robert Gordon recently noted that there are clear signs that a productivity slowdown is happening in the United States. Since 2004, productivity has grown at an annual rate of 1.7%, well below the 2.6% rate for the previous decade. During the two years leading into 2012, productivity fell to a 0.9% annual rate.

For the past 250 years, new technological wonders have been the backbone of progress, the cure-all for many problems, and the leavening in a rising standard of living. Might there be a sixth technology wave on the horizon to maintain this pattern?

Maybe, but its nature will be uniquely transformative and a major

“The Western crisis of 2008 will not mark the ­beginning of the end, but rather the end of the beginning of Western civilization as we know it.”

Many of these are adjacent possibilities, or innovations emerging logically from the meta-technology (e.g., computer chips make cell phones possible). Others are called “exaptations,” where an invention introduced in one field induces technological change in another field (e.g., Thomas Edison’s phonograph, meant to be an office dictating machine, becomes a medium for recording and listening to music—the record player).

We now live at the tail-end of the fifth wave with diminishing computer-chip based developments.

Substantial gains to come will be concentrated in the areas of metadata analysis, material sciences, biocybernetics, and wireless telephony.

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reason a new secular ideology is ­necessary.

Transformational Technologies Ahead Whether intentionally or not, humans have irrevocably changed the path of evolution on Earth by altering the planet’s biosphere and habitats by deliberately breeding animals and hybridizing plants to suit our needs and by inadvertently reducing biodiversity. This evolutionary trend will accelerate this century in a new direction through genetic, biocybernetic, neurological, nanotechnological, and pharmacological engineering of the human being.

The panoply of research agendas across these fields is so staggering in scope that their collective implica-

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tion has not yet risen to social awareness. While science to date has been concerned with transforming things in our external environment, it now is developing potent tools to transform the human being itself.

A cursory introduction to what is happening in a couple of these fields will help set the stage for understanding how their effects will enter into mainstream consciousness and eventually demand a new way of thinking.

Controlling and eliminating genetic diseases by somatic gene therapy, and augmenting physically handicapped humans through biocybernetics, are capabilities that are rapidly coming on the scene, for these are relatively uncontroversial technologies. Cybernetic science has a long history and is essentially an interdisciplinary area of science concerned with the structure and function of regulatory systems.

Biocybernetics is the field where cyber­netic theory is applied within biological systems; it has several subfields, including neurocybernetics, molecular cybernetics, cellular cybernetics, and evolutionary cybernetics. Developments in smart-­ system technology, information technology, neuroscience, and nano­ t e c h n o l o g y a re c o n v e rg i n g i n biocybernetics, causing acceleration in medical advances from drug delivery to sophisticated and more-­ varied prostheses.

Genetic testing has received more media attention than biocybernetics in recent years. Medical professionals now have more than 1,300 gene tests at their disposal to check for such diseases as cystic fibrosis and hemophilia. Along the way, scientists are discovering and exploring new dimensions of the human genome related to human physical and mental attributes.

As with somatic gene therapies and testing, early applications of biocybernetics have stirred little controversy. For instance, who objects if biocybernetics produces a “smart” prosthesis to permit a disabled veteran to walk with a strong, normal gait or to have a more agile arm with dexterous fingers with which to hold 26

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his child? The lack of major controversy with cybernetic enhancements or somatic gene therapies is due to the fact that neither alters the human germline.

Continuing developments in these fields will provide additional opportunities for personal enhancement

want these treatments or things because they enable us to more freely pursue the range of needs along Abraham Maslow’s hierarchy; they permit us to live more productive, stable, and fulfilled lives. There is little doubt that the majority of people will demand the life-enhanc-

“Since we are about to take dramatic control over our own evolution, it is best to have a relevant, encompassing ideology to guide this emergent transformation.”

and, in time, will pass ethical boundaries into stormy controversy. The most provocative scientific trend that is well under way is germline gene therapy. This vein of research seeks to transform the genetic structure of sperm and egg cells toward some goal—such as eliminating genes for disease by inserting new ones for better health or higher intelligence—with the consequence being that the engineered gene sequence will be passed on to future generations.

Germline gene therapies will create new and improved people. Without a doubt, developments in this field will ignite an ethical firestorm that we are unprepared to deal with. (For simplicity, we will refer to all of these scientific fields as bioengineering.)

Science these past three centuries has not only transformed our world, but it has also provided us with the means to improve our individual lives and extend personal power.

Whenever you get a flu shot, you become biologically enhanced. Whenever you put on a pair of glasses, you become technologically enhanced.

We enthusiastically embrace enhancements if they protect us from disease or permit us to see so that we can carry on the business of life. We

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ing products and procedures growing out of bioengineering.

Technology, Transformation, Ideals, and Ideology Democracy is founded upon the inalienable rights of the individual, meaning that people should determine what is best for them, not the state. All who are alive today have grown up with astounding scientific enhancements, are comfortable with new technology, and are legally protected to deploy new treatments and products, within broad limits, that enhance their pursuit of happiness.

Liberty—the beating heart of democracy—resonates with human nature and will not be denied.

Since we are about to take dramatic control over our own evolution, it is best to have a relevant, encompassing ideology to guide this emergent transformation. Such an ideology must harmonize with the implications of the demographic and socioeconomic shifts unfolding in the developed world.

Details of this ideology will emerge from a collective learning process; however, I will share some ideas on the structure of this new system of thought.

First, there needs to be a reframing

of recent history. Second, from this reframing we need to extract and incorporate successful ideas from our experience. Third, we need to adopt a set of strong ethical principles to guide research, experimentation, and clinical application of biotechnology.

Fourth, we need a vision of the new human to be created. And fifth, we need a sustainable community context in which to nurture our becoming while preserving all that humanity cherishes.

Reframing of history is fairly straightforward: The Enlightenment never ended. In fact, we are now moving into the third and final stage, the Era of Transformation. The first era is sometimes called the Age of Reason, for it was a time of social change based on new ideas for organizing social institutions along with economic experimentation through systematic application of the scientific method.

The Era of Experimentation fol-

existence on Earth and the creation of a new human being.

Debates over which ideas to incorporate from previous secular ideologies to date will be contentious. The core institutions of democracy based on guaranteed individual freedoms in the context of free-market, meritocratic capitalism will be retained.

The principle of the “Common Good” to judge social policy will remain, yet this notion has evolved into a multitude of extended meanings, the significance of which demands intensive analysis and ­discussion.

Beyond these, the concepts embedded in the ethos of progress— part of the social contract—capture much that resonates with human nature, but requires careful review.

Certain elements, such as the sanctity of a rising standard of living, are in need of modification in relation to constraints imposed by physical reality, our numbers, and existing ­technology.

Suggested Readings Beyond Growth: The Economics of Sustainable Development by Herman E. Daly (Beacon Press, 1996).

The Coming Population Crash: And Our Planet’s Surprising Future by Fred Pearce (Beacon Press, 2010).

Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything by John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper (John Wiley & Sons, 2011).

The Forever Fix: Gene Therapy and the Boy Who Saved It by Ricki Lewis (St. Martin’s Press, 2012).

The God Species: Saving the Planet in the Age of Humans by Mark Lynas (National Geographic, 2011).

Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update by Donella H. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis L. Meadows (Chelsea Green, 2004).

More than Human: Embracing the Promise of Biological Enhancement by Ramez Naam (Random House, 2005).

Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny by Robert Wright (Pantheon, 2000).

Principles of Biomedical Ethics (6th edition) by Tom L. Beauchamp and James F. Childress (Oxford University Press, 2009).

lowed and began with the rise of what Hungarian philosopher Karl Polanyi termed the “Dual Movement” in the mid to late 1800s. This was a period of intense experimentation with alternative social paradigms within democracy and interpretations of the ideal design of civil society (e.g., fascism, communism, democratic socialism).

Political scientist Francis Fukuyama’s declaration of the “End of History” after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 marked the end of this second stage. The Era of Transformation began with the complete mapping of the human genome in 2001.

The two most distinguishing features of this third stage will be the transition of our species from its colonization stage to a climactic stage of

The scientific community has worked on establishing strong ethical principles to govern biotechnology.

In 1979, bioethicists articulated four funda­mental bioethical ­principles: • The Principle of Autonomy or Informed Consent.

• The Principle of Non-malfeasance, or Due Care.

• The Principle of Beneficence.

• The Principle of Distributive Justice.

These principles have shaped the bioethical debate ever since, forming core standards for guiding research in such fields as gene therapy.

These ethical principles, and others, will be folded into the new ideology. Eugenics was about creating a “better” human based on differences between people. To avoid accusawww.wfs.org

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Prosperity without Growth: Economics for a Finite Planet by Tim Jackson (Earthscan, 2009).

Religion for Atheists: A Non-believer’s Guide to the Uses of Religion by Alain De Botton (Pantheon, 2012).

The Rise and Decline of Nations: Economic Growth, Stagflation, and Social ­Rigidities by Mancur Olson (Yale University Press, 1982).

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tions that this new endeavor is a disguised eugenics movement, bioengineering must be constrained to enhancing attributes that all humans share: health, longevity, intelligence, and attention.

An image of the new human to be created will likely be the most difficult facet of the new ideology to agree upon. What we do not want to create is an inflated version of the Paleolithic human that now populates the world. This would surely lead to extinction. Incorporating some Kantian notion of the perfectibility of humanity is another certain dead end.

I have a strong preference for an open-ended vision and thus will refer to the new human simply as an “angel”—with all the ambiguity this implies. Throughout history, luminaries have referred to “the better angels of our nature,” speaking to the multiple expressions of positive human creativity, behaviors, and endeavors. This is a vision worthy of embracing.

“The Human Foundation” for Building the New Ideology Our new ideology must have a social locus, including an institution to focus effort, bring minds together to flesh out the ideology, and promote a common agenda. Some will say that today this can be done through a virtual organization, but there is much more to building community than just inspired words on a screen.

I suggest that an organization called The Human Foundation be established with multiple objectives and purposes. For example, this organization will place itself at the vanguard of bioengineering, bringing all the knowledge together in a manner to promote an ethical pathway to the creation of the new ­human. It will also involve itself in addressing existing world problems—particularly in regard to those associated with demographic, economic, and environmental transition.

One goal will be to spread awareness of the advantages of diminishing population and aggregate GDP, and of embracing a modified ethos 28

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of progress. Existing knowledge will be compiled and stored by the Foundation, with strategies instituted for its preservation under extreme circumstances. A “seed bank” would be built within The Human Foundation (as is being done by the Svalbard Global Seed Vault) to preserve all that is known for the benefit of humanity’s future, thus serving as an insurance policy that we hope is never needed.

In the end, The Human Foundation would serve to bring together all that is needed to preserve, protect, and advance knowledge while guiding the process of continuing human evolution. It will have one other critical objective: to create a sense of shared purpose within a nourishing community.

The proposed ideology is evolutionary rather than revolutionary: It is built upon a foundation of peace and continuing revelation. Revolutionary ideologies, on the other hand, spawn passions of “us versus them,” with zealotry, fanaticism, and powerful in-group bonds. Both forms share a vision of a better future and sense of purpose, but the revolutionary approach draws heavily—and dangerously—on human emotions.

An ideology based on an evolutionary approach is predominantly rational and therefore lacking the spark to ignite and fuse community bonds. Consequently, there is a need for a studied effort to build community around the proposed ideology.

Swiss philosopher Alain De Botton’s recent book, Religion for Atheists (Pantheon, 2012), is a good place in which to begin identifying approaches that The Human Foundation could use to address the issue of community building and cohesion.

No new ideology has emerged in the last half century, not because of lack of human imagination, but because we have been living in a period of complacency, relativism, and materialism. Many of the old ideologies have failed—or are failing—due to a misunderstanding of the underlying constraints imposed by physical reality, little-understood processes unfolding in the world, and

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overconfidence in our ability to construct institutions and technologies to solve problems.

Immanuel Kant thought that progress could not be measured by the amount of wealth or knowledge possessed and that it would not come automatically or be uninterrupted.

Progress was, as he would put it, a difficult passage from barbarism toward cultural and human enlightenment. He believed that a world that was culturally enlightened would be dominated by people who were more uniformly and consistently angelic than in our barbarous past.

Progress ultimately springs from the transformation of people, and Kant called for education as the pivotal tool for doing so. This suggests that he believed nurturing intelligence would dispel ignorance, bringing understanding, peace, and prosperity. But Kant put undue faith in Paleolithic humans’ potential; history since his time has proved him wrong. The human we call Homo sapiens is shortsighted, self-centered, and tribal—with these traits thrown into a cauldron of base emotions with mental and biological flaws.

I believe that Kant was fundamentally correct, yet more and better education alone cannot take us where he envisioned us going: We need a better human to complete the passage. If we succeed in navigating the difficult challenges of the twentyfirst century, we may begin to write the final chapter of the Enlightenment. If we do not, then the Enlightenment truly did end with the eighteenth century—and all that has transpired since may be no more than footnotes in the closing pages of the human story. ❑ About the Author Kenneth B. Taylor is a faculty member of the Department of Economics at Villanova University and currently serves as associate director of the Center for Global Leadership. His most recent edited volume is entitled 21st Century Economics: Perspectives of Socioeconomics for a Changing World (St. Martin’s Press, 2000).

Who Will Be Free?

The Battles for Human Rights to 2050

By Josh Calder As geopolitical power around the world shifts, so will the global consensus on human rights. There are challenges ahead, but the expansion of affluence, education, and digital technology may lead to a freer and more humane world in the long run.

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he future of human rights looks promising. That may seem surprising, in light of the oppressive regimes that continue to brutally suppress dissident uprisings and rig elections, but several powerful, positive trends are at work, centered around changes in values and new technology. These trends will drive three contests that will define the evolution of human rights over the next few decades: • Freedom-enhancing technology versus repressive technology.

• The rise of new powers versus the influence of the legacy great powers. www.wfs.org

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• Clashes within societies over values.

The definition of human rights has evolved and will continue to do so, but for purposes of this article they encompass traditional political rights—democracy and self-determination and their components, such as the freedoms of conscience, association, and information—along with the absence of punishment for exercising those political rights. This

“As new powers gain an ever-growing share of global economic, political, and cultural power, approaches to human rights and freedoms will shift.” definition also includes basic physical protections for the person—freedom from extrajudicial killing and torture.

The Technological Arms Race The potential contribution of technology to human rights has become increasingly clear, especially after the prominent role attributed to social media in the 2011 Arab Spring unrest.

Several trends are at work here.

The Internet and mobile networks are spreading, giving people more open access to information and the ability to generate it themselves.

With 70% of the world’s population carrying mobile phones, individuals increasingly have the technological means to document and publicize rights abuses.

Such crowdsourced information 30

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gathering is finding new forms. Efforts such as Syria Tracker gather reports of human rights abuses in real time from the field and map them for the world.

Some governments and organizations are backing technologies intended to aid dissidents in sharing information. These include technologies to support clandestine use of the Internet and mobile phones, and software to document human rights abuses. For instance, the U.S. State Department is reportedly helping create an “Internet in a suitcase” to provide dissidents mobile Internet access that can elude government censors.

Human-rights groups are using satellite images and other largescale, centralized technology, as well, to detect and document human rights abuses. One monitoring effort in Sudan is even partly funded by actor George Clooney.

And new technologies continue to come online: Activists have called for the deployment of unmanned drones to monitor human rights ­crises.

Overall, transparency is rising in the world, making it harder for governments to hide human rights violations from their own people or global observers. However, technology is also being deployed in ways that harm human rights, or have the potential to do so. Surveillance technologies of all kinds are proliferating and tracking people’s shopping habits, locations, political preferences, and myriad other factors.

The private sector collects much of this information, compiling it into hundreds of millions of dossiers that go beyond what the most totalitarian government of the past could have dreamed of. Such techniques and the information itself could be put to political purposes in the future. For example, Facebook is granting researchers access to anonymized data on the political preferences of all of its members based on their private postings.

A similar company might do the same for a government someday.

Surveillance could also go much farther. Technology could track

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where most people are most of the time and provide clues to their activities and concerns multiple times a day, with the data fed to centralized information repositories. The U.S. intelligence community has already noted the potential utility of the “Internet of things,” with any component of the smart environment potentially feeding data about targets of interest. As one article put it, “We’ll Spy on You through Your Dishwasher.”

All this data could be automatically and continuously mined for patterns that indicate that a person is of concern. People could even be monitored indirectly: Studies have found that much can be discovered about members of social networks even if they keep all their own information private. The characteristics of their associates still reveal facts as intimate as sexual orientation—predictable with 78% accuracy in one study—and this would be the case with political and social views.

Technology could also intersect with human rights much more directly, as armed robots are deployed in policing and warfare. Robots could violate human rights deliberately or through faulty performance, and they will add a level of deniability for violations, potentially reducing accountability for soldiers and policy makers.

New Powers versus Old Rising non-Western powers such as China and India hold views of human rights that are distinctly different from those in the West. As new powers gain an ever-growing share of global economic, political, and cultural power, approaches to human rights and freedoms will shift.

Since the mid-twentieth century, Western nations have slowly and often only partially adopted the idea of universal human rights. Rising powers are almost uniformly wary of the concept of promoting human rights across borders. Many have serious human rights problems of their own, and others see human rights as a tool that the West uses to impose

its views on others. The latter group includes democratic states such as India, Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey.

The right of self-determination may falter. The West has endorsed this right only slowly and reluctantly in many cases—such as East Timor, Eritrea, and South Sudan—and rising powers are even more skeptical.

Many, including China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and Turkey, face active internal self-determination issues and will oppose any strengthening

“Technology companies and the systems they run will increasingly ­reflect the preferences of the largest economies.

Early signs of this have begun to emerge.” of such rights in ways that could be applied within their borders.

The rising influence of emerging powers could shift the role of technology in human rights. Technology companies and the systems they run will increasingly reflect the preferences of the largest economies. Early signs of this have begun to emerge.

Twitter has modified its system to censor tweets country by country, so that it can comply with local laws.

Activists noted that this could enable compliance with information-control laws such as those of China.

As China grows more powerful, it is likely to pressure global companies and other countries to facilitate its information-control efforts. China and other rising powers may determine the degree to which the Internet remains open. Commercial control—as in diminished “Net neutrality”—may be a backdoor to state control as global corporations become more responsive to emerging powers.

Emerging powers’ stance on human rights is evolving. China and Russia did not block the imposition of a no-fly zone by the United Nations in Libya in 2011, departing from their customary views on intervention in “internal matters,” and the Arab League voted later that year for sanctions against Syria due to its violent crackdown against ­protesters.

The cost of indifference to human rights may be rising. China and Russia were condemned by demonstrators for protecting the Syrian regime from international pressure during the uprising. If global popular opinion shifts far enough, the policy of more countries might come to resemble that of the United States and Europe: selective promotion of human rights, in cases where their sympathies and their perceived interests align. On the other hand, Louise Arbour of the International Crisis Group counters that the influence of new great powers may matter less than it once would have, as the internal evolution of societies is now the driving force in democratization and human rights.

Struggles over Values Much will depend on the third struggle over human rights: the evolution of values, especially within rising powers. The trend line is positive: Observance of human rights has improved almost universally over the last 50 years, even in authoritarian countries. Viewed over longer time periods, the upswing is even starker. The most humane governments of a few centuries ago were crueler than almost all governments are today. Even mainstream Christian churches were torturing and executing people for mild intellectual dissent a few hundred years ago.

China provides a clear example.

Though it is still rated “not free” by Freedom House, it has retreated from mass killing of political opponents to far more limited and selective repression. The slightest deviation in hairstyles or artworks could bring harsh penalties a few decades www.wfs.org

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ago. Though the country remains authoritarian, what would once have been forbidden dissent is now readily discussable and publishable.

This trend of improving human rights could continue globally, due both to changing global norms and to underlying economic drivers. The world may get much richer—and wealthy countries generally treat their citizens better than poorer countries do.

The observable pattern today is that all countries with per capita purchasing-power incomes over $20,000 have high levels of civil liberties and personal freedom (unless their economies are based on natural resource extraction; Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates are cases in point). University of Michigan political scientist Ronald Inglehart, director of the World Values Survey, offers an explanation for why attitudes

“This trend of improving human rights could continue globally, due both to changing global norms and to underlying economic drivers. The world may get much richer—and wealthy countries generally treat their citizens better than poorer countries do.” toward human rights tend to vary with level of development. Put most simply, people raised amid material security tend to have “postmaterialist” values, including tolerance for self-expression, absence of xenophobia, and reduced deference to au-

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thority. All of these are conducive to freer, more humane societies.

So, too, are rising educational levels, which are a byproduct of rising prosperity (the natural resource exception is likely due to resourcebased economies’ rapid expansion with no need for an extended process of socioeconomic development or broad distribution of wealth).

This pattern matters because many forecasts suggest that very large numbers of people will become much wealthier over the next 40 years. For instance, middle-class and wealthy people could number 2 billion in the G20 developing economies by 2050, according to Uri ­Dadush and William Shaw in their 2011 book, Juggernaut. They estimate that 1.1 billion Chinese and 273 million Indians could be middle class.

The Asian Development Bank forecasts that Asia could achieve an average per capita purchasing power of $41,000 by 2050, similar to Europe’s today, in a strong-growth scenario. And more-cautious estimates still have Chinese income per capita surpassing $17,000 (in constant 2000 dollars) by 2050.

Overall, it seems fairly likely that ongoing values changes around human rights will continue, helped along by rising levels of wealth and education. Still, several caveats apply. The recent spread of human rights and democracy may have been a historical accident. Culture and values may have driven those forces in Europe and its offshoots, and other countries (such as those in East Asia) may have gone democratic because they happened to become rich during the period of Western dominance.

In his book No One’s World, international affairs expert Charles ­K upchan argues that democracy might spread in the future, but that new powers will transform the global system before they are likely to ­democratize.

Even if rising powers greatly improve their own human rights ­r ecords, internal evolution is no guarantee of external behavior.

Western countries engaged in or 32

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supported serious human rights violations through the 1980s with few qualms; in Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere, the United States and Western European countries backed some of the cruelest governments on the planet. Deterioration of human rights is always possible, especially if Inglehart is correct that a prosperous and secure environment profoundly shapes attitudes. Populations that are fearful of losing

“If nations such as China turned to promoting a humane vision, the rights they emphasized would be different, reflecting profound differences in views of the individual, society, and future generations.” ground economically might put a lower priority on human rights.

Note, for instance, the American slippage on waterboarding, which was punished as torture in the past but was accepted after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001.

And a final caveat: A wealthier world may not come. Development of emerging markets could stagnate at lower levels than discussed above, or prosperity could even decrease globally, if the theorists of economic or ecological collapse are correct.

Even with substantial convergence of values, there are still likely to be deep-rooted collisions across cultures over human rights issues. If nations such as China turned to promoting a humane vision, the rights they emphasized would be different, reflecting profound differences in

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views of the individual, society, and future generations. Biotechnology could trigger human rights disputes based on fundamental ideas of what constitutes human nature and human dignity.

Key Trends to Watch for Human Rights Through 2050, human rights will be shaped by technology, changes in geopolitical power, and sociopolitical evolution in the non-Western world. These are some key indicators and variables: • The relative balance between top-down surveillance and information control versus bottom-up technologies that enhance freedom.

• The degree to which the Internet remains an unfettered information conduit, especially in its core structures.

• W h e t h e r e m e rg i n g m i d d l e classes grow, and whether they push for more rights (even if not full democracy).

• Whether governments engaged in human rights violations leverage the strength of rising powers to evade pressures over their policies.

• How India, China, Turkey, and other rising powers adjust their own self-determination policies.

• How these rising powers approach protecting human rights beyond their borders.

Over the next few decades, advocates for human rights will have to push technology toward doing more good than harm, and adjust their strategies for a world in which the West is no longer at the center. It is likely to be a challenging but ­ultimately hopeful environment for ­human rights. ❑

About the Author Josh Calder is a partner at the futures consulting firm Foresight Alliance (www.foresightalliance.com), where he monitors global trends, discontinuities, and international issues. The views expressed in this article are his own.

OUTLOOK 2013 Recent Forecasts from World Future Society for the Decade Ahead

© LILKAR / ISTOCKPHOTO

INTRODUCTION Human actions could become more accurately predictable, thanks to neuro­ science. Nano-sized robots will deliver cancer-fighting drugs directly to their targets.

And though many recently lost jobs may never come back, people will find plenty to do (and get paid for) in the future.

These are just a few of the forecasts you’ll find in this latest edition of ­Outlook, a roundup of the most thought-provoking possibilities and ideas published in THE FUTURIST magazine over the past year.

The forecasts collected in the World Future Society’s annual Outlook reports are not intended to predict the future, but rather to provoke thought and ­inspire action for building a better future today.

The opinions and ideas expressed are those of their authors or sources cited and do not necessarily represent the views of the World Future Society. For more information, please refer to the original articles cited. Back issues of THE FUTURIST may be purchased using the coupon in this report or online at www.wfs.org.

Your feedback is welcome! Please e-mail your comments to letters@wfs.org.

—THE EDITORS

INSIDE OUTLOOK Business and Economics............... 2

Health and Medicine....................... 5

Energy............................................ 3

Information Society......................... 6

Environment and Resources.......... 3

Science and Technology................. 7

Food and Agriculture...................... 4

World Affairs................................... 8

Habitats.......................................... 5 ©2012 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved. Printed in U.S.A.

OUTLOOK 2013 BACKTOTHEROOTS.COM

BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS l Many recently lost jobs may never come back, but there’s still a future for work. The economy may become increasingly jobless. Rather than worry about unemployment, tomorrow’s workers will focus on developing a variety of skills that could keep them working productively and continuously, whether they have jobs or not. It’ll be about finding out what other people need done, and doing it. —James H. Lee, “Hard at Work in the Jobless Future,” Mar-Apr 2012, pp. 32-33 l Corporate reputation ratings will be even more transparent with augmented reality. In a “Rateocracy,” where organizations’ reputations are quantified, data could be included in geographically based information systems. You might choose one restaurant over another when your mobile augmented-reality app flashes warnings about health-department citations or poor customer reviews. —Robert Moran, “‘Rateocracy’ and Corporate Reputation,” World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, p. 12 PATRICK TUCKER

l Virtual games could accelerate real economic growth.

Games played on mobile devices are increasingly enticing players with discounts, coupons, and other real-world rewards. As players use their phones to pay for the games and make purchases, bypassing credit cards, bank accounts, and cash, the socalled virtual economy could grow from $3 billion in 2009 to $300 billion in the next 10 years, predicts Kiip co-founder Brian Wong. —World Trends & Forecasts, NovDec 2011, p. 6 l Money and even cash will still exist by 2100.

Money will increasingly move to digital forms for legitimate transactions, but cash will still be the lifeblood of the black-market economy. Society will likely embrace barter, at least at the peer-to-peer level, but public services such as defense and justice will still be supported via taxes. —Stephen Aguilar-Millan, “Will We Still Have Money in 2100?” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 43 l India will become a hotbed of “invisible innovation.” Rather than focusing on tangible consumer products like the iPad, innovators in India emphasize processes that improve efficiency. Future success will depend on modernizing the nation’s university system as well as its intellectual property laws. —Nirmalya ­Kumar and Phanish Puranam, authors of India Inside, ­reviewed by Rick Docksai, May-June 2012, p. 54

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l Upscale opportunities in resource recovery will abound. Going beyond using postconsumer waste to make more stuff— often of inferior quality—upcycling is about harvesting resources to make new products of higher commercial value. For example, the social enterprise Back to the Roots company sells kits that allow people to use recycled coffee grounds for growing gourmet mushrooms. —Tomorrow in Brief, JulyAug 2012, p. 2 l Sex workers in developed countries will become more responsible for their own branding. With more technologies available to them to work as independent entrepreneurs, sex workers will adopt retailing trends like collective discounts, online reviews, and strategic partnerships. By 2030, mainstream companies will increasingly invest in pornography (such as purchasing product placements) and even sponsor sex workers.

—Emily Empel, “The Future of the Commercial Sex Industry,” May-June 2012, p. 39 l Career “paths” will become patchwork pieces.

Baby boomers’ future career trajectories will more resemble a lattice than a ladder, with “The new more lateral norm is for moves on the way people to up. For younger maintain and generations, it will develop skill be more of a sets in multiple patchwork quilt: simultaneous multiple jobs careers. In this stitched together environment, the ability to to form a more learn is something of a surflexible work envivival skill.” —James H. Lee ronment. —James H. Lee, “Hard at Work in the Jobless Future,” Mar-Apr 2012, p. 35 l Shake-ups in the “C Suite”: New corporate leaders with new skills are on the way. Corporate futures will be shaped by leaders adept in social networking, content management, data mining, and data meaning.

Look for such job titles as Earned Media Officer, Chief Content Officer, Open-Source Manager, Chief Linguist, and Chief Data Scientist. —Geoffrey Colon, “Shakeups in the ‘C Suite’: Hail to the New Chiefs,” World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2012, pp. 6-7

ENERGY l Subways, trains, and diesel trucks will become future sources of energy, not just consumers. Since most of the stored energy that vehicles use is wasted as heat spilling out from tailpipes, engineers at BMW, Ford, GM, and other manufacturers are seeking systems to recover thermal energy. For example, a system under development at Dynalloy Inc. would recover heat from a car’s exhaust system, generating enough power to run the car’s audio or air-conditioning systems. Trains would generate even more recoverable waste energy, since they are operated continuously. —World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2012, pp. 7-8 l Future cars may become producers of power rather than merely consumers. A scheme envisioned at the Technology University of Delft would use fuel cells of parked ANIMATED FILM BY SCHWANDT INFOGRAPHICS COMMISSIONED BY TU DELFT electric vehicles to convert biogas or hydrogen into more electricity. And the owners would be paid for the energy their vehicles produce.

—Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2012, p. 2 GARY MEEK / GEORGIA TECH

l Noise vibrations and other “junk” energy will be harvested from the environment. Researchers at Georgia Tech are developing techniques for converting ambient microwave energy into DC power, which could be used for small devices like wireless sensors. And University of Buffalo physicist Surajit Sen is studying ways to use vibrations produced on roads and airport runways as energy sources. —World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 9 l Buckypaper—a smart, superlight material—will ­increase energy ­efficiency. Industrial-grade carbon nanotubes are becoming more affordable. One promising use is Buckypaper, which appears

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flimsy but is 100 times stronger than steel per unit of weight. It can conduct electricity like copper and disperse heat like steel or brass. —Tsvi Bisk, “Unlimiting ­Energy’s Growth,” May-June 2012, p. 31 l Forecasts for bioenergy in the United States may be overly optimistic. As a potential alternative source of energy to help the United States reduce its dependence on foreign oil, biofuels have not met proponents’ high expectations, says the American Chemical Society.

One problem is land availability: To meet the goals of the 2007 Energy Independence & Security Act, 80% of current agricultural land would have to be directed toward biofuels. Another barrier is the uncertainty about oil prices, which inhibits biofuel investors. —World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2012, pp. 9-10 l Alternative energies won’t be enough to solve the world’s energy woes. Alternatives to alternatives are needed. Heavy investment into solar energy, wind energy, and other renewable systems may actually set us back, since these strategies draw resources away from others that might work better, warns University of California–Berkeley visiting scholar Ozzie Zehner. A more practical approach may be to design communities that enable people to live well while using less. —Books in Brief [review of Green Illusions by Ozzie Zehner], July-Aug 2012, p. 53

ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES l The next great wave of species extinctions may be in the oceans. By 2050, the scale of extinctions of ocean-dwelling plants and animals may equal the five great global extinctions of the past 600 million years, warns the International Programme on the State of the Ocean. Reasons: a “deadly triad” of pollution, overfishing, and climate change impacting the world’s ocean habitats. —“The Best Predictions of 2011,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 36 l “Peak water” may become as big a problem as peak oil. As water tables around the world become depleted, and as growing populations demand more water for personal as well as agricultural use, supplies of sustainably managed water will continue to fall. The consequences could be dire for human health, as water-­ related diseases proliferate. —Jerome C. Glenn, “Updating the Global Scorecard: The 2011 State of the Future,” Nov-Dec 2011, p. 27 l Gadget-happy societies may become more ­environmentally friendly. The consumer-electronics industries in the United States are building more drop-off sites for customers to recycle outdated devices. Recycling increased by 53% from 2010 to 2011, netting 400

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OUTLOOK 2013 million pounds of gadgets. The Consumer Electronics Association’s goal is to recover 1 billion pounds of electronics by 2016. —Future Scope, July-Aug 2012, p. 4 MISSOURI BOTANICAL GARDEN, WWW.MOBOT.ORG

l Extinctions are outpacing scientists’ ability to ­discover new species.

New tools enable both professional and amateur taxonomists to identify new species and share discoveries around the world. About 2 million species of plants, animals, fungi, and other life forms have been identified, and there could be another 10 million awaiting discovery. But human encroachment is i­ ncreasing in species-rich locales such as the tropics, Southeast Asia, and New Guinea, threatening to kill off species before they can be discovered, warns botanist Peter H. Raven, president emeritus of the Missouri B ­ otanical Garden. He estimates that 30% of Earth’s species will be extinct by the end of the century, due to climate change and habitat loss. —World Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2012, p. 8

ANDRÉ KÜNZELMANN / UFZ

l Water pollution from pesticide runoff will likely ­increase. As climate change alters the activity and spread of pests, more farmers in ­Europe will turn to pesticides to keep their croplands productive.

The result may be a doubling of pesticide use by 2090 over the 1990 average, and streams in as much as 40% of Europe’s land mass will suffer increased insecticide pollution, warns the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, p. 13 l By 2100, humans will have become managers of the natural environment. As climate change and population growth claim the planet’s remaining “wild places,” mankind will learn to manage the natural world as a global garden. Species and even microscopic habitats will be monitored and protected via tiny sensors, and managed with the assistance of artificial intelligence. —Brenda Cooper, “Where the Wild Things Are Not,” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 37

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OUTLOOK 2013

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE SUNY-ESF

l An aquaponic recycling system in every kitchen? Future “farmers” may consist of householders recycling their food waste in their own aquariums. An aquaponic system being developed by SUNY ecological engineers would use leftover foods to feed a tank of tilapia or other fish, and then the fish waste would be used for growing vegetables. The goal is to reduce food waste and lower the cost of raising fish. —Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 2 l Genetic modification could yield healthier, more flavorful, and longer-lasting food, thus reducing waste and hunger. Vitamin A–fortified golden rice could help prevent blindness among children in developing countries, but it has not yet been approved. Such “Frankenfood” must first overcome opposition from fearful consumers (and from anti-GMO opponents like the $20-billion organic food industry). —Josh Schonwald, “Engineering the Future of Food,” May-June 2012, p. 27

l Genetically engineered animals will become a ­major part of agriculture, but not soon. In the future, creating livestock that grows faster, consumes less feed, produces less waste, and yields leaner, healthier meat may seem a less “extreme” approach to meeting humanity’s food requirements than it does today. Meat production may even bypass animals, if public opinion shifts to favor lab-grown food as a more ethical approach.

—Jeffrey Scott Coker, “Crossing the Species Boundary: ­Genetic Engineering as Conscious Evolution,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 26 l Demands to decrease pesticides and other chemicals on farms could exacerbate food shortages.

However, lower crop yields could be compensated for by wasting less food, says environmental researcher Matthias Liess. About a third of all the food the world produces each year is either thrown out or lost in storage, transit, processing, or packing, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, p. 14 l China’s growing appetite for meat will strain global grain supplies. China now consumes 71 million tons of meat a year, about twice as much as the United States and more than a fourth of all the meat produced worldwide, according to the Earth Policy Institute. Increased meat production also increases demand for corn

and soybeans used for livestock feed. Supplies of these grains are already seeing strain as energy and other sectors compete with food producers. —Future Scope, SepOct 2012, p. 4

HABITATS l By 2025, there will be 27 megacities around the world, each with populations exceeding 10 million.

The “real population bomb” isn’t the sheer number of world population, but the relentless urbanization in places unprepared for this growth. Megacities in northern Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, China, and ­Indonesia, where poverty is already severe, will face more environmental pollution and become havens for terrorism and crime, warn defense experts P. H. Liotta and James F. Miskel. —Books in Brief [review of The Real Population Bomb by P. H. Liotta and James F. Miskel], JulyAug 2012, p. 55 l By 2100, 70% of the world’s 10 billion inhabitants will live in cities. As rural residents move to far-morecomplex urban habitats, many will struggle to cope with new institutions and new rules and attitudes. Slums will serve as catalysts for facilitating this psychosocial transition, enabling newcomers to adapt successfully. Instead of “solving” the slum problem, nongovernmental organizations will work to facilitate life with wireless service, educational programs, and “off-grid” power, ­water, health care, and sanitation services. —Eric Meade, “Slums: A Catalyst Bed for Poverty Eradication,” Sep-Oct 2012, pp. 43-44. l Knowmads may drive growth in micro-urban areas. As telecommuting enables more knowledge workers to work and live anywhere they choose, places with big-city amenities and a small-town feel could have growing appeal. Look for micro-urban booms in places like Fargo, Syracuse, Iowa City, and Roanoke.

—Future Scope, Sep-Oct 2012, p. 4 l A “green” housing boom is under way. U.S. home buyers are increasingly demanding energy efficiency and the use of sustainable materials both in new homes and in remodeling projects. “Green homes” will grow from 17% of the residential construction market in 2011 to 38% by 2016, with a fivefold increase in revenues, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

—Future Scope, May-June 2012, p. 4

HEALTH AND MEDICINE l Drug-delivering nanorobots built from DNA could be approved for use in humans within 20 years.

Medical nanorobots that carry m ­ olecule-sized payloads

CAMPBELL STRONG, SHAWN DOUGLAS, AND GAËL MCGILL USING MOLECULAR MAYA AND CADNANO

and can detect and attack cancer are being developed by Shawn Douglas and researchers at Harvard Wyss Institute for Bio­logically Inspired Engineering. The bots are like complex pieces of fabric, with hundreds of DNA pieces wrapped around a scaffold.

When the bot encounters a protein indicating cancer, the nanostructure unlocks itself to release a cancer-fighting antigen. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, pp. 15-16

l Robots may become gentler caregivers. Lifting and transferring frail patients may be easier for robots than for human caregivers, but their strong arms typically lack sensitivity. Japanese researchers are improving the functionality of the RIBA II (Robot for Interactive Body Assistance), lining its arms and chest with sensors so it lift its patients more gently. —Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 2 l Humans could one day reach longevity “escape velocity.” Continuous rejuvenation therapy that focuses on repairing cell damage before it accumulates, causing pathologies, may one day allow people to live for a thousand years. As these technologies continue to improve, each new round of rejuvenation therapy will improve upon the previous treatments, and we will stay young indefinitely. —Aubrey de Grey, “A Thousand Years Young,” May-June 2012, pp. 21-23

“If and when we do succeed in developing these rejuvenation therapies that give us those first ­couple of ­decades more of health and the postponement of age-­ related ill health, then we will have done the hard part.

The sky is the limit after that.” —Aubrey de Grey

l Full-body firewalls will be necessary to prevent hackers from tampering with your implants. Wireless medical devices designed to manage and monitor drugdelivery systems and other implants are vulnerable to interference. Researchers at Purdue and Princeton universities are developing a medical monitor (MedMon) designed to identify potentially malicious activity.

—Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2012, p. 2

OUTLOOK 2013

5

OUTLOOK 2013 l Cancer survivorship may strain future health-care systems. More people are beating cancer and surviving longer and healthier—that’s the good news. The bad news is that elderly cancer survivors will still need more medical services. In the United States, the aging population is growing while the number of oncologists and ­geriatric specialists is declining. —Future Scope, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 4

MICHAEL SEXTON / AUTODESK

l Smart helmets will rapidly detect brain injuries.

Contact sports will become smarter and less dangerous, thanks to helmets that detect concussions. By 2015, high-school football players could be wearing smart ­helmets that rapidly detect abnormalities in users’ brain-wave activity. The EEG-reading helmets, under development by Villanova University engineering professor Hashem Ashrafiuon and others, would alert medics on the sidelines if there are signs of concussion.

—World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2012, pp. 12-13 l Better health, but fewer doctors. A projected shortage of more than 90,000 doctors by 2020 will drive technological innovations such as low-cost, point-of-care ­diagnostics—i.e., Lab-on-a-Chip technologies. A cellphone-sized device could analyze your blood or “What gets me sputum while you talk to most excited is the a health provider from the idea that every comfort of your home. person will have —Peter H. Diamandis and access to … 3-D Steven Kotler, “The Abunprinters, just like dance Builders,” July-Aug we have inkjet 2012, p. 17 printers today.

And once that happens, it will l Boys will enter their change everything.” —Carl Bass, at-risk years earlier than Autodesk; quoted by Peter H. ever. The age of male sex­Diamandis and S ­ teven Kotler ual maturity has been slowly decreasing since the mid-1700s (2.5 months per decade), thanks to changes in nutrition and environmental factors. A similar trend has already been observed among girls. While the “high-risk” adolescent years have been stretched for boys, the dangers may be offset by parents who tend to supervise children more closely when they’re younger.

—Future Scope, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 4 l New approaches to treating alcohol addiction could let alcoholics drink moderately. Abstinence is not always feasible or necessary in treating substance abuse, say researchers at UCLA’s Scripps Research Institute. A chemical treatment approach targeting peptides in the part of the brain that regulates moods and emotions could reduce alcoholics’ anxiety and the urge to drink. —World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2012, pp. 6-8

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OUTLOOK 2013

SCREEN CAPTURE FROM NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION VIDEO

l Disease detection may soon be but a breath away.

A Single Breath Disease Diagnostics Breathalyzer under development at Stony Brook University would use sensor chips coated with nano­wires to detect chemical compounds that may indicate the presence of diseases or ­infectious microbes. In the future, a handheld device could let you detect a range of risks, from lung cancer to anthrax exposure. —Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2012, p. 2

INFORMATION SOCIETY l The future Internet could connect the world at the neural level. Advances in neurotechnology will make it possible for us to link our minds, share our emotional experiences, and even feel changes in the collective state of mind. This “telempathy” would, for instance, enable leaders to gauge public anxiety during a catastrophe.

—Michael Chorost, “A World Wide Mind: The Coming Collective Telempathy,” Mar-Apr 2012, p. 22 l Legal-expert systems will make laws easier for laypersons to understand. “Conversational law” will incorporate statutes, interpretations, precedents, and other elements of the law; the system will query users about their particular situation and provide clear answers on how the law applies. Lawyers may reduce their billable hours but earn income developing specialized legal-expert systems. —David R. Johnson, “Serving Justice with Conversational Law,” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 21 l Minority languages will disappear with minority populations. Of the 6,900 languages spoken today, more than half face extinction in the next 100 years. ­Reason: 95% of the world’s population speak one of just 400 languages, and the remaining 5% of languages are scattered among fewer and fewer speakers. —Lawrence Baines, “A World of Fewer Words? Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language,” Mar-Apr 2012, p. 43 l Mobile phones may contribute to political reform in Africa. Web-accessible mobile devices have proliferated in Africa, where text messaging and social networking are giving low-income residents more opportu-

nities to watch their governments. Increased transparency and accountability, such as improving public access to spending on expensive infrastructure projects, could help reduce corruption and poverty, says Matthias Mordi, executive director of Accender Africa.

—World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 6 © YUNUS ARAKON / ISTOCKPHOTO

l The last newspaper and book will have been printed in 2020.

Information formerly contained by print products will be rented by users rather than owned, and will be accessed from the cloud via 3-D m ­ obile media. —Marcel Bullinga, “Welcome to the Future Cloud: Five Bets for 2025,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 64 l Tablet PCs, netbooks, and laptops will be extinct by 2022. Instead of relying on hardware, workplaces will become ubiquitous computing environments, where everything around you (door knob, coffee pot, window) has connectivity and computing capabilities.

—“The Best Predictions of 2011,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 30 l Communication will become increasingly imagedriven. Thanks both to the proliferation of video and to smaller screens for computing and communication devices, graphics and images will be more heavily relied on for ordinary communication. This will foster faster comprehension and possibly stimulate new ways of thinking, but at the cost of eloquence and precision.

—Lawrence Baines, “A World of Fewer Words? Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language, Mar-Apr 2012, p. 46 l By 2020, data will have a life of its own. Algorithms will talk to other algorithms, things will connect with millions of other things, and sensors will gather even more data, processed by more computers, all scarcely discernible to humans. But data may be becoming too big, and we need to learn how to channel the power of data into making the lives of everyone on the planet better. —Brian David Johnson, “The Secret Life of Data in the Year 2020,” July-Aug 2012, pp. 21-23

l Online pornography will become more graphic and more pervasive. As with any stimulant, pornographic imagery must become more intensive as users become less sensitive to its effects. One result will be the creation of an entire generation of young men so desensitized by pornography that they are unexcited by normal sexual encounters. —Roger Howard, “Anticipating an ‘Anything Goes’ World of Online Porn,” May-June 2012, p. 42

SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY l Neuroscientists may soon be able to predict what you’ll do before you do it. The intention to do something, such as grasp a UNIVERSITY OF WESTERN ONTARIO / JASON GALLIVAN cup, produces blood flow to specific areas of the brain, so studying blood-flow patterns through neuroimaging could give researchers a better idea of what people have in mind. One potential application is improved prosthetic devices that respond to signals from the brain more like actual limbs do.

—World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 10 l The next space age will launch after 2020, driven by competition and “adventure capitalists.” While the U.S. space shuttle program is put to rest, entrepreneurs are planning commercial launches to access lowEarth orbit and to ferry passengers to transcontinental destinations within hours. Challenges include perfecting new technologies, developing global operations, building new infrastructure, and gaining regulatory ­approval. —Joseph N. Pelton, “The New Age of Space ­Business,” Sep-Oct 2012, p. 17 ORBITAL SCIENCES CORPORATIONN

l The “cloud” will become more intelligent, not just a place to store data. Cloud intelligence will evolve into becoming an active resource in our daily lives, providing analysis and contextual advice. Virtual agents could, for example, design your family’s weekly menu based on everyone’s health profiles, fitness goals, and taste preferences. —Chris Carbone and Kristin Nauth, “From Smart House to Networked Home,” July-Aug 2012, p. 30

OUTLOOK 2013

7

OUTLOOK 2013 J. CRAIG VENTER INSTITUTE

l Algae could provide the molecular machinery to create ultra-low-cost fuels.

Pioneering genome sequencer J. Craig Venter aims to create synthetic life derived from algae, which would be run through a DNA sequencing machine and used to design future cheap biofuels. The technology could also create highly productive food crops, high-performing vaccines, and more. —Peter H. Diamandis and Steven Kotler, “The ­Abundance Builders,” July-Aug 2012, p. 15 “Moving into space, both within and beyond this solar system, is our best chance of continuation as a species. …

We need to treat humanity the same way we treat any other irreplaceable, highly valued, absolutely critical system. Let’s make a backup.” —Richard Yonck, “One Response to the Eight Grand Challenges,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 22

l Electron-level data-­ storage capacity could be achieved in just over 120 years. One of the eight “grand challenges” proposed by the DaVinci Institute is an electron-based storage system that could be manufactured for less than $1 per 100 terabytes. With Moore’s law on our side, we could reach this goal in the year 2133, according to University of Colorado–Boulder n ­ eurobiology professor Mark Dubin.

—Thomas Frey, “Eight Grand Challenges for Human Advancement,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 18

l Coming soon to sports arenas: the Enhanced Games! Genetically enhanced athletes are nothing new, but rather than leaving the enhancements to luck, future technologies will enable more competitors to choose the alterations that will improve their performance. Officially sanctioned enhanced athletes will thus still compete on a level playing field. —Jeffrey Scott Coker, ­“Crossing the Species Boundary: Genetic Engineering as Conscious Evolution,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 27 l Genetic engineering could make us superheroes.

While we may not become Batman, we may one day find it useful to incorporate specific animals’ traits (such as bats’ sonar-based “vision,” perhaps). —Jeffrey Scott Coker, “Crossing the Species Boundary: Genetic Engineering as Conscious Evolution,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 27

8

OUTLOOK 2013

UC SAN DIEGO JACOBS SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING

l The dream of “Smell-O-Vision” may soon come true. An odor-release device triggered by heat from an electrical current may one day bring scents into virtualreality experiences, video games, and other applications.

One potential use for such telesmell devices would be for alarm systems, perhaps scaring burglars away with skunk scents, according to engineering professor Sungho Jin of the University of California, San Diego.

—World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2011, p. 8 l Robotic pack mules will lighten the load for human soldiers on the battlefield. Toting 100 pounds or more of gear can be a major impairment for troops. Robotic pack mules under development at DARPA could potentially carry 400 pounds on a 20-mile hike without refueling. —Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2012, p. 2

DARPA

WORLD AFFAIRS l Soldiers will communicate via telepathic helmets by 2020. Abandoning radio transmissions, microphones, and hand signals, tomorrow’s military will rely on helmets that read and communicate soldiers’ thoughts, according to biomedical scientist Gerwin Schalk. —“The Best Predictions of 2011,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 30 l The global Muslim population could increase from 1.6 billion to 2.2 billion (35%) by 2030. The Muslim population is growing at about twice the rate of the world’s non-Muslim population, reports the Pew Forum

Point/Counterpoint: Global Affluence or Global Disruption? l A new era of global affluence, democracy, ­modernity, and equality is on the way. “Modernity is not a choice,” writes Hudson Institute co-founder Max Singer in his new book, History of the Future.

Singer observes that the rise of globalized communications means that citizens of traditional, poor, and ­repressed countries are less likely to tolerate their ­conditions when they can easily watch others become free and prosperous. And, he notes, “as globalization advances, the menu of opportunities for people everywhere expands.” —Max Singer, author of History of the Future, reviewed by Rick Docksai, Jan-Feb 2012, p. 50

l A new era of global disruption, resource ­depletion, and universally wrecked economies is on the way. So projects ecologist Paul Gilding in The Great Disruption. Ecological catastrophes will beget socio­economic ones unless governments launch wartime-like efforts to avert them. The potential disruptions will spread to public health and spark violence.

Gilding believes that the world’s peoples will unite to transform the world’s destructive systems. —Books in Brief [review of The Great Disruption by Paul Gilding], Jan-Feb 2012, p. 53

on Religion and Public Life. Muslims will make up more than one-fourth (26.4%) of the world’s projected population in 2030. —“The Best Predictions of 2011,” Jan-Feb 2012, p. 32

l Good news and bad news for 2020: The 2011 State of the Future report found reasons to both cheer and fear what global trends portend for the decade ahead.

l Both China and M. CROZET / INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION India will experience growing pains over the next decade. India’s population, growing at twice the rate of China’s, is creating an “enviably young” workforce, reports the RAND Corporation. China is viewed as having a better educated workforce than India, suggesting that China’s GDP will continue to exceed India’s through 2025, but the aging population bodes ill for China’s longer-term security.

—World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2012, p. 12

• The percentage of people with access to clean water.

l Mandarin Chinese may gain on English’s popularity globally. On the Internet, Mandarin and English have close to the same number of users (510 million and 565 million respectively). However, the number of Mandarin users online increased 1,478% between 2000 and 2011, compared with 301% for English users. The fastest growth was among Arabic users (2,501% increase) and Russian (1,825%). —Lawrence Baines, “A World of Fewer Words? Five Trends Shaping the Future of Language, MarApr 2012, p. 43

Where We Are Winning: • Percentage of people enrolled in secondary school.

• GDP per capita.

• Infant mortality rates.

• HIV prevalence among 15- to 49-year-olds.

• Total debt service in low- and mid-income c­ ountries.

Where We Are Losing: • Carbon-dioxide emissions.

• Global surface temperature anomalies.

• Percentage of people voting in elections.

• Levels of corruption in the 15 largest countries.

• Number of refugees per 100,000 total population.

—Jerome C. Glenn, “Updating the Global Scorecard: The 2011 State of the Future,” Nov-Dec 2011, p. 26

AARON M. COHEN

“Within the next two decades, the concept of being dependent on synthetic life-forms for medicine, food, water, and energy could be quite normal.” —Jerome C. Glenn

OUTLOOK 2013

9

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The Global Talent Chase:

China, India, and U.S. Vie for Skilled Workers

By Edward E. Gordon Too many tech jobs and not enough tech professionals to fill them— China, India, and the United States all face this dilemma. Here is what each economic powerhouse is— and should be—doing to ease its workforce gap, and a look at a successful strategy known as Regional Talent Innovation Networks, or RETAINS. Around the world, the talent hunters are on the prowl. China, India, and the United States, the three largest workforces, are the prime contenders in the battle over jobs and skills. Technology’s increasing impact across all job sectors has continuously raised employers’ demands for more intelligent, well-educated, career-ready workers. Replacement needs in high-skill occupations are due to soar. In 2010, a generational retirement shift began that will remove massive numbers of talented baby boomers from the labor pool.

Joining the developed economies of Europe, Asia, and North America, billions of Chinese and Indian workers and potential consumers have flooded into the world marketplace.

This has created many new economic opportunities. It also triggered a talent tsunami in labor markets whose warning signs were largely ignored by most Americans.

Long-term forecasters tell us India and China may soon become economic superpowers. Their arguments for touting these two rapidly growing markets are at first glance overwhelming: China and India start

from a lower economic base. Their huge populations are waiting to consume. Their colleges and universities produce an inexhaustible supply of skilled scientists and technicians.

Ongoing economic liberalization has given them significant economic power. Some see the rise of India and China as a major economic game changer.

However, the growing talent shortage in both China and India is a key issue that is further complicated by a host of socioeconomic problems. India wants the respect conferred by its rising IT power, but a rickety infrastructure and widespread corruption challenge its credibility. China’s state-controlled capitalism is forging into uncharted territory, run by a fascist-type police state that fears political liberalization. Something must change.

These and other major limitations cloud the future of China and India.

A major war for talent is now under way as Chinese tech manufacturers and Indian IT firms hunt for skilled workers. This has serious implications for a U.S. business community historically overdependent on importing skilled people from abroad.

Assessing the Global Talent Hunters China and India have evolved culturally, economically, and socially over the past 30 years. The questions now are where they are heading and whether their growth means they’ll continue supplying the United States and other industrial economies with talent. China and India may expand their own talent pool, eclipsing the U.S. economy and attaining global economic dominance.

One impact of the growing talent shortages is the serious threat of inflation. Wages for migrant workers www.wfs.org

•

in China rose 21% in 2011. Indian inflation averaged 9.4% in 2010-2011, with a 13% increase in wages in 2011.

• China: Growing Pains. China’s young economy arose in 1978 from the ashes of the disastrous Great Leap Forward of the Mao era. It has benefited from a huge population of consumers and cheap labor. Now comes the hard part. As the economy matures, institutional changes in ­s ocial/political structures are required along with massive investments in human capital development.

China now faces a major employment crisis. The 30-year low-cost/ low-wage manufacturing era that ­fueled its economic miracle is now over. China’s 200-million migrantworker army is growing increasingly restless over low wages and a lack of employment benefits.

Other cracks are also appearing in China’s boom. Credit Suisse, citing “alarming levels” of credit expansion in 2011, warned of slower growth for the overall economy. Local government and state-owned or backed enterprise debt totals amount to well over 150% of China’s 2010 GDP, according to Victor Shih, a political economist at Northwestern University. (By comparison, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio is 73%.)

More Chinese economists are now predicting sharply lower annual GDP growth. This could undermine middle-class support of the Communist Party that has been based on the so-called “Beijing consensus,” the contention that people don’t think a lot about freedom of action, free markets, and democracy, as long as capable bureaucrats deliver major economic growth.

It is clear that China’s greatest challenge is institutional change. After 90 years of existence, the Chinese Communist Party finds itself in cri-

THE FUTURIST

November-December 2012

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© LAOZHANG / DREAMSTIME.COM

sis. China’s rising middle class views it as an entrenched elite.

“The fact is that many people today foster hatred for government officials and hatred for the rich,” says Yang Jisheng, a former government journalist and author.

• India: Dysfunctional Structures.

India’s spectacular growth of recent years is beset by many political and social issues. Economists and business leaders now believe that India’s high inflation rate (9.1% as of May 2011) is the byproduct of broad economic structural failure driven by severe talent shortages, a dysfunctional transportation and power infrastructure, and the unrealistic expectations of many of its citizens.

Unless serious efforts are made to redress a growing human capital deficit, India’s economy may stall as it attempts to move up the value chain into more sophisticated IT services and manufacturing. Someday, India may challenge the supremacy of the United States in pathbreaking scientific research, but not in the foreseeable future. It lacks the largescale, high-quality university graduate programs needed for an abundance of such breakthroughs.

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THE FUTURIST

Chinese technology firm Inspur showcases its wares at the Fourth China Cloud Computing Conference, which took place May 2012 in Beijing. Tech firms’ growing presence in China are spurring new efforts by the Chinese government to recruit tech-savvy Chinese expatriates from overseas.

India has many advantages that China lacks. India has a democratic political system and an Anglo-Saxon legal code. Also, India’s younger age cohort is slated to continue growing, with the nation’s total population passing China’s by 2030. There is much talk about India’s demographic dividend (i.e., its relative youth), but this will only be an illusion unless the quality of India’s entire national talent development system is significantly upgraded.

• U.S.: Myths and Realities for Talent Hunters. There is a growing mismatch in India and China between the available talent pool and economic demands for more skilled human capital. Other serious socioeconomic issues complicate their efforts to increase the number of highskill workers. U.S. business leaders still believe that America remains the best location for the world’s top scientists and engineers.

A World Economic Forum study

November-December 2012

•

www.wfs.org

reported that the majority of U.S. patent filings by many American companies are now being made by foreign nationals living in the United States (General Electric, 64%; Merck, 65%; Cisco, 60%). This motivates many in the U.S. business community to lobby Congress to raise the annual H-1B foreign visa quota from 65,000 to over 100,000.

But the talent tide is turning, as talent hunters from many nations woo their nationals to return home to become participants in their burgeoning economies. Also, the United States has tightened immigration policies and raised visa application fees to screen out potential terrorists.

It can now take up to a decade to obtain permanent U.S. residency. Finally, many other nations are tapping the same STEM talent pool by offering attractive employment opportunities and permanent citizenship to foreign nationals.

In 2011, the World Economic Fo-

rum found that more Indian immigrants were moving back to India than were moving to the United States. A separate Kauffman Foundation study, Losing the World’s Best and Brightest (2009), surveyed more than 1,200 foreign nationals attending U.S. colleges and universities and found that 60% of Indian students and 90% of Chinese students believed that stronger economic opportunities awaited them in their home countries rather than in the United States.

“You have the cream of the crop coming over here getting educated, getting experience over here, and suddenly they become much more marketable and can do (just) as well anywhere else,” concludes Vivek Wadhwa, the study’s lead author.

Over the last 20 years, an estimated 150,000 highly skilled immigrants have returned to India and China, says Wadhwa. About 135,000 Chinese students left the United States in 2010 and returned home, according to the Chinese Ministry of

Education—a 25% increase from 2009.

Structural Changes Alter Needed Skills All of the world’s talent hunters face the same challenge: the ready availability of skilled people, which is often the primary driver for companies’ site selection. But rather than hunting for foreign talent, businesses over the next decade will need to create their own skilled talent pools.

And their success will largely determine the future success or failure of their national economies—and, by extension, the world’s.

Until recently, U.S. businesses have bridged this skills deficit by either importing educated workers or

exporting high-pay/high-skills jobs to skilled talent pools overseas, wherever they could be found. Both of these talent strategies are beginning to fail.

The demand for talent and the supply of workers with the desired skills are out of balance all over the world.

The populations of Japan, South Korea, and many European nations are in decline. India and China are moving into more-sophisticated hightech manufacturing or IT services, but both are now encountering severe shortages of engineers, scientists, and technicians. In both countries, domestic labor pools lack the requisite educational preparation due to deficient public-education systems and the inadequate standards of institutions of higher learning.

Girls in a West Bengal, India, village demonstrate their computer-savviness. India has a surging population of youth who are, or will soon be looking for, new jobs in technology, according to Ed Gordon, who cautions that the country must urgently improve its education system and technology infrastructures if it is to find employment for them and continue to grow economically. © SAMRAT35 / DREAMSTIME.COM

A major structural change is also occurring in the U.S. labor market.

Though the GDP has risen, unemployment has not fallen in a way consistent with the number of job openings. Why? U.S. productivity is increasing. In manufacturing and most other business sectors, it’s not just advanced machines. It’s increasingly evident that many new advanced technologies are digitizing the whole economy. These surges in productivity will create tomorrow’s jobs and raise living standards. New jobs will come from rising efficiencies in production and innovative technologies spawning new products and services throughout the entire economy.

The flip side to these breakthroughs is that today’s and tomorrow’s jobs require advanced technical skills. A workplace may need fewer people, but they must be better educated and able to work with advanced computer systems. This has become the new normal for employment, whether it is in an office, production facility, hospital, law firm, or service business.

These digitized jobs present a new problem. The consensus among employers is that people need to be reskilled for the new workplace. The urgent need to create more skilled workers is now a central political and economic concern in communities across America.

The availability of better-educated talent with up-to-date career skills now largely determines where businesses will locate. Communities that break down the structural barriers among businesses, education, and community groups and collaborate to renew their talent creation and economic systems will attract new businesses and retain current ones.

Those that don’t will wither and die.

The Great Recession has accelerated an ongoing labor-market shift that was masked by the many lowor semi-skilled jobs created during the housing/financial bubble. In today’s labor market, employment for low-skilled or semi-skilled workers h a s f a l l e n d r a m a t i c a l l y. E v e n ­m iddle-skilled professionals have seen a steady decline in jobs because of automation. In general, the job opportunities are brighter for high46

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skilled people who have kept their knowledge and applicable certifications up-to-date and who can relocate where jobs exist.

Some critics blame popular culture, and not just deficient education systems, for the lack of desired skills among workers. In testimony before the U.S. Senate, Charles Butt, chief executive of a Texas-based H-E-B supermarket chain, said that finding qualified young workers is an increasing problem: “Many schools inherit an over-entertained, distracted student body.”

The spread of “new media zombies,” who lack basic academic competencies, interpersonal skills, and critical thinking abilities, is reaching alarming proportions. It should not be surprising that the number of young people entering science, technology, engineering, and math-related (STEM) occupations is shrinking.

The major business issue today is not talent management. It has become talent creation. One-third of U.S. business executives report that they face a crippling loss of essential skills as the baby boomers retire en masse.

Current U.S. education-to-employment systems are broken at the local/state/regional levels. They have outlived the labor economy for which they were created 100 years ago. Over the past 30 years, the incremental adjustments—the “education reforms”—have done little to patch the broken talent pipeline connecting people to jobs.

What steps can U.S. businesses take to remedy these massive deficits in the skilled talent needed today and over the next decade?

“Technology is easy to develop,” states Dean Kamen, best known as the inventor of the Segway scooter.

“Developing a new attitude, moving the culture is the difficult part.”

The RETAIN Strategy Over the past decade, my research, consulting, and travels have given me the opportunity to learn about regional public–private partnership networks emerging across the Americas, Europe, and Asia that are investing in new talent-creation systems. The goal of these networks is

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to create more talented people at higher skill levels who will be able to better support a developed nation’s competitive businesses and be highwage earners.

I call these organizations Regional Talent Innovation Networks (RETAINs). They are local, broad-based community initiatives that include large and small businesses, community organizations (such as chambers of commerce or Rotary chapters), regional economic development or workforce development boards, county/city/state agencies, unions, public and private elementary and secondary schools, postsecondary educational institutions, foundations, parent groups, and nonprofit organizations in health care, literacy development, and other groups that serve challenged workers who need employment.

RETAINs are regional in composition. They focus on talent development through a wide array of innovative programs. They are financed by private and public funds, including business investments, foundation grants, and local, state, and federal funding initiatives.

Already, more than 1,000 RETAINs have been organized across the United States. RETAINs are now building functional collaborative networks of partners from all segments of the community to create new, more open education-to-­ employment systems. These nonprofit organizations are leveraging business–education partnerships into new linkages to meet long-term local talent needs. RETAINs help their communities keep local businesses, stop population decline, and attract new industries and service businesses by expanding the local pool of talented people.

RETAINs are built upon the value of civic activism. Businesses collaborating with a broad array of community organizations, government agencies, and nonprofit groups are working together to form these new pipelines that connect people with jobs through both short-term and long-term initiatives. In the short term, they are moving to fill current vacant jobs. Through RETAIN networks, businesses offer entry-level job-training programs for those cur-

rently unemployed who have some of the required job skills and a willingness to learn the rest. Unlike previous public job-training programs, RETAINs do not offer generic job training in the hope that this will assist an unemployed person in finding future employment.

Many of these public–private networks are now linking individuals who have some of the required job skills to specific vacant jobs. For up to six months, an intensive training and education effort puts these trainees both in the classroom and on the job to get the required knowledge.

They receive a training wage from the business and their unemployment compensation. In other words, they earn while they learn. The majority of these trainees “graduate” from their education programs and are hired to fill vacant positions.

Two excellent examples of this approach are HIRED in St. Paul, Minnesota, and Chicago Career Tech in Illinois. Established in 1968, HIRED specifically matches an unemployed worker who has some, but not all of the required skills for a vacant job in a local business. HIRED then provides the worker with classroom education that addresses skill or educational deficiencies, while the business provides a trainee position with on-site job-specific training.

HIRED has established a growing network of companies using this proactive approach to fill their vacant positions.

Chicago Career Tech was initiated in 2010 to retrain unemployed midlevel tech workers for new jobs. A rigorous educational program that was developed in collaboration with Chicago-area technology firms provides these workers with the specific educational updates required to fill vacant positions. Of the 165 people in Chicago Career Tech’s first class, 149 received final program certification and were placed in jobs. A second class of 300 began in 2011.

For the long term, RETAINs are also developing career information and education programs from elementary school through college. High-school career academies, as well as higher education career and technical programs, are increasing the number of local well-educated students and connect-

ing them to a regional career pipeline that future prosperity depends on for employment. Such regional over- the U.S.—its government, business, hauls of education-to-employment people, universities—coalescing besystems are beginning to help sustain hind a strategy for growth and creatand grow local economies. If the RE- ing incentives so talent and capital TAIN talent model is brought flow to promisup to scale across the United “A workplace may ing sectors States, more Americans will where the U.S. need fewer people, find “good” jobs and increasstill has an ing numbers of U.S. businesses but they must be better edge in an inwill become more competitive creasingly comeducated.” in the world marketplace. petitive global New York Times columnist economy.”

David Brooks wrote, “The U.S. has But in the midst of a major un­ always been good at disruptive employment crisis, executives at all change. It’s always excelled at de- levels are reporting increasing difficentralized community-building.” culties in recruiting skilled talent America needs to build on these past and filling scientific and technology strengths now. The McKinsey Global positions. Among the world’s three Institute agrees: “To create the jobs largest workforces—the United t h a t America needs to continue States, China, and India—technology growing and to remain competitive, is outpacing current job training and leaders in government, business, and preparation programs. China and education will have to be creative— India are moving from low-skill/ and willing to consider solutions low-wage manufacturing into highthey have not tried before.” skill/high-wage industries, but the If the United States fails to address needed talent is sorely lacking. the current talent red alert, the price U.S. businesses can no longer rely will be high. The survival of many on engineers and scientists from U.S. businesses is at stake. Large cor- India and China to fill their skills porations continue to poach many gaps, as these sought-after workers workers from small and medium- are increasingly being attracted by sized companies. In fact, Manpower opportunities in their native counhas predicted that, between 2010 and tries. But Regional Talent Innovation 2020, 10% to 20% of U.S. businesses Networks (RETAINs) are gaining will close their doors due to the in- momentum across the United States. ability to fill key vacant jobs.

More than 1,000 of these public–priCivic activism has long been a hall- vate partnerships are helping current mark of American culture. Business workers upgrade their skills and are persons, educators, union leaders, sponsoring regional career informagovernment officials, and community tion and education programs. groups and organizations can work As this century’s economic powertogether to form these Regional Tal- h o u s e s b u i l d u p o n t h e i r o w n ent Innovation Networks. The United strengths, prospects for the global States can move beyond the current economy as a whole will improve. job crisis into a decade of increased No single business—or country— opportunity for those who are willing can win this jobs battle alone. ❑ to form partnerships focused on developing the skills and education reAbout the Author quired for employment in a twentyEdward E. Gordon is president of Imperial Consulting first-century global economy. We in Chicago. His most recent must act now before it is too late.

Improving Prospects for Global Prosperity The success of the United States, China, and India, as economic power­houses, matters to the world.

As Wall Street Journal economics editor David Wessel put it, “It’s clear www.wfs.org

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book is Winning the Global Talent Showdown (BerrettKoehler, 2009). He may be reached at Imperial Consulting Corporation, www.imperialcorp.com.

This article draws from his recent white paper, “The Talent Hunters: The United States, China and India in the Battle over Skills and Jobs” (Imperial Consulting Corporation, 2012).

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Dream, Design, Develop, Deliver: From Great Ideas to Better Outcomes A better future doesn’t happen on its own. We create it with our ideas, plans, and actions. In July, hundreds of futurists from around the world took the opportunity to “dream, design, develop, and deliver” the future together at WorldFuture 2012.

Lee Rainie

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he world’s problems, and their solutions, may be too complex for any one group to solve.

The more than 600 futurists meeting in Toronto for the World Future Society’s annual conference in July came together in large groups and small for lively discussions about how the world community might set in motion the best future possible.

People have always sought out membership in groups, but the last few years of the Internet’s evolution have fueled an unprecedented movement worldwide toward networked behavior, Lee Rainie, director of the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project, told the attendees at WorldFuture 2012: Dream. Design. Develop. Deliver.

Rainie shared the findings of a consensus of more than a thousand researchers about this phenomenon of “networked individualism” and its potential to create sweeping changes in how the world processes 48

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By Rick Docksai

Brian David Johnson

information and conducts business.

These changes might even bring about the end of currency, university systems, and other time-honored institutions as we know them.

“Individuals have a lot more power and a lot more pressure, but they manage it better by operating within networks,” he said. What’s critical is that the world must be aware of these and other changes coming up and plan for them now. An optimal future is attainable, but only if we act in the present to create it.

“If you drive conversations about these kinds of things, you might change the future. You might have smart people thinking about the drivers and the downsides, and might help to make this world a better place,” said Rainie.

Joining Rainie were dozens of internationally recognized futurists and innovators, such as Intel futurist Brian David Johnson, speaking about the myriad innovations and societal developments that are irrevocably

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changing health care, energy, robotics, and many other fields of human endeavor.

As a futurist who works for an engineering company, Johnson said he is held to rigid accountability for his predictions: “Forecasts become technical specs.” But rather than predicting the future, he promoted the idea of developing visions of the future that are actionable—visions that we can build.

Perils of Blindsiding Futuring is also about being prepared for the future that others are building. Confectionary giant Mars Inc. suddenly lost huge amounts of revenue about four years ago. Why? Was it other candy companies stepping up competition? No: It was due to the proliferation of SMS messaging, and young people preferring to spend more money on mobile text­ ing services than on chocolate bars.

Management consultant Jim Harris,

Ibon Zugasti, director of Prospektiker and chairman of The Millennium Project Node in Spain, leads a session on futurists’ views from around the world.

a­ uthor of Blindsided!, cited Mars’ dilemma as a prime example of the unanticipated changes in environment that can catch any business off guard.

“When these trends begin to shift, companies best get in early on the change, rather than wait until it rolls over on them,” he said.

No business or organization can predict what new challenges will emerge in years ahead, he pointed out, but they can make sure that they will be as responsive and adaptable as possible. The key, he said, is innovation.

“Innovation is the flipside of blindsiding. Innovation is the solution, is the antidote to avoid being blindsided,” he said. “The best way to predict the future is to create it.”

[Editor’s note: For more of Harris’s examples of blindsiding, see “Innovate or Else” online at wfs.org.]

Reports from Singularity University Some of the conference’s boldest forecasts belonged to José Luis ­C ordeiro, director of The Millennium Project’s Venezuela Node. He co-hosted the session on “The Singularity University: Team Projects to Change the World” with Anna Trunina and Nikola Danaylov, both recent graduates of the Singularity University.

Cordeiro described momentous

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advancements in humans’ capacity to rewire the brain, the genome, and the body in general. Just as computing power keeps exponentially rising, so might the human life span, Cordeiro suggested. He noted that laboratory researchers have enabled mice to live three times the average for their species; flies, four times the average for theirs; and worms, six times their species’ average life expectancy. Similar catapults forward in human longevity might be fea­ sible before long—possibly in as little as 20 or 30 years.

“We are going to see the death of death,” he said. “You who are students today will be members of the first immortal generation.”

Cordeiro also foresees, within two or three decades, creation of the first artificial brain. Japan’s Riken Brain Institute, he noted, is actively pursuing the creation of a computer that equals the human brain in capacity by 2018.

“We will conquer the final frontier, which is not really space, but the human brain,” he said.

With further developments in biotechnology and genomics, medicine will similarly attain vast new powers over our genes. Cordeiro pointed out the increasing ease with which researchers can copy an individual’s entire genome: Whereas the first genome took 13 years and cost $1 billion, a medical team completed it in 2010 within four weeks and for a www.wfs.org

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mere $10,000. In 2020, it could cost $10 and take one hour. Following this, researchers may master the art of adding, deleting, or modifying a person’s genes as desired.

“We will design our children. We will design our descendants,” Cordeiro asserted. “If you like the eyes of someone, the nose of someone else, the hair color of someone else, you will be able to channel all those genes and create your own designer baby.”

Representing Singularity University alumni, Trunina and Danaylov presented their innovations to conference goers. Trunina gave a presentation on PrimerLife, a Web-based platform that she helped develop.

An individual obtains a copy of his or her family’s genetic history and logs onto PrimerLife to consult with other users and with registered physicians on what the genetic indicators all mean.

Trunina explained that personal genotyping is a rapidly growing market, but there are few services out there for consumers to make sense of the data that their genetic charts contain. PrimerLife addresses this. It is a great way for users to understand what their genetic indicators actually mean for their health and how they might develop a longterm health plan accordingly.

“Genome and biological data will become the primary platform for building a strategy of human life,”

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Robert T. Schwartz of GE Healthcare leads a panel on ­Reimagining the Future of Global Health, Wellness, and Health-Care Delivery.

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she said.

Political corruption is the societal problem that Corruptiontracker.org, which Danaylov helped to launch, aims to fix. This site is a crowdsourced software app, available for download now in Apple’s iStore, by which people anywhere can report corruption.

It’s an app that Danaylov hopes could save lives. He pointed out that innocent people needlessly suffer and die because of dishonest or exploitative behaviors by their leaders: 83% of earthquake building collapse deaths in the past 30 years were in countries that were anomalously corrupt, while a lack of oversight in China’s train systems has led to deadly train collisions.

“Corruption has a very serious direct cost in terms of lives lost. It’s not just a problem on paper. It’s a real life-threatening problem,” he said.

By increasing awareness among all the globe’s publics about corruption, however, Danaylov hopes that the app could foster more dialogue about existing problems and how to solve them. People in the affected countries could confront their political systems’ failures, and do so with support and guidance from concerned citizens of other countries.

“Intelligence outside a community is always greater than intelligence inside,” he said.

Singularity University itself received a few words of praise from Andrew Hessel, cellular biologist who founded the open-source research firm Pink Army Cooperative and, in addition, is on Singularity University’s faculty. He spoke of his frustrations with traditional university systems that stratify fields of study 50

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into separate departments that interact little with each other, and in which every department generally resists new ideas. Singularity University stands apart because of its integration of all disciplines and its zealous pursuit of new ways of thinking.

“I’ve been with this group since 2009, and I’ve never had to push an idea uphill. In fact, I learn how to push my boundaries out a bit more,” he said. “They have a vision that is a fearlessness about looking into the future, one that is different from what you see in most universities today.” [Editor’s note: a video clip of Andrew Hessel’s impromptu presentation at the Singularity University session is available at the World Future Society’s YouTube channel, www.youtube.com/ user/WorldFutureSociety.]

More Monitoring, More Health Medicine will find better ways of matching patients with effective, safe pharmaceutical treatments than today’s standard clinical trials. It has to: Clinical trials use test populations that are too small and too homogenous, so a drug can pass clinical trials but still turn out to be ineffective or even harmful for many patients.

Jay Herson, himself a data analyst who worked in clinical trials for more than 30 years, outlined the problem and some solutions in his talk, “The Future of Global Drug Safety.”

Personalized medicine could be a driver. Patients might consult not only with doctors and nurses, but also with software programs—provided by doctor groups and insurance companies—that observe and advise each patient directly. The pro-

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Futurists: BetaLaunch Showcase

By Patrick Tucker

Seven teams participated in the 2012 Futurists: BetaLaunch design and idea expo, and “best in show” went to The Mission Business .

Made up of students from Toronto’s OCAD University, The Mission Business is a Toronto design collective that produces connected liveaction and online entertainment experiences. They create immersive, cross-platform theater events to educate audiences with educational entertainment about near-­ future technology.

One method they employ to do this is the creation of real ad campaigns for fictional companies, such as synthetic biology maker ­B yoLogyc. Faux ­B y o L o g y c C E O Trevor Haldenby Chet Getram even introduces F:BL attendees to ByoLogyc, a company “from the future.”

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gram could work with biosensors in your home to obtain information about your personality, lifestyle, and even credit-card purchases and e‑mails to discern what drugs and treatments will work for you, and what lifestyle changes you need to make.

“Siri could give advice based on personality,” Herson said. “It could judge, for example, that this patient is not a morning person, so wouldn’t give him or her any new suggestions

until the afternoon.”

The doctors, on their end, will get continuous, instantaneous flows of data from those same apparatuses on their patients’ blood, sleep patterns, and other vital signs, and will make fast decisions accordingly.

They will know if a patient is taking a prescription and complying with treatment or not—all by virtue of nanoparticles, engrained within the medications, that the electronic sensors will detect. Just as important,

they will know if the same prescription or treatment is causing the patient a bad reaction.

“Big data allows for the merger of health-care delivery, clinical trials, and post-market surveillance,” ­Herson said. “Practicing health providers will have safety like never ­before.”

That said, adverse effects to drugs will probably still occur, albeit less continued on page 53

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Anastasia Kilani describes the Cyberhero League on camera: “We aim to redefine the way the world thinks about gaming and business by creating a gaming platform that helps youth learn about what is going on in the world, what businesses are socially and environmentally responsible, and certainly how they can take action on behalf of other people as well the planet.”

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made an appearance at F:BL and helped the team win the interactive “best in show” prize.

“By exploring the world of ­B yoLogyc through live-action events and online media, audiences challenge their assumptions about the future, helping us understand the future of entertainment, the evolution of technologies like synthetic biology, and how corporations and organizations can anticipate the future needs and values of customers,” Mission Business founder Trevor Haldenby said in a statement. For more information, visit: The Mission Busin e s s , w w w. i n d i e g o g o . c o m / ZEDTO. The other innovations showcased at this year’s F:BL were: • Filabot, a device that uses recyclable plastic to create filament for 3-D printing. Filabot is the work of Tyler McNaney of Rocknail Specialties LLC. Details: http:// rocknailproducts.com • ComposeTheFuture is a social network to help users predict, plan, and promote a better future.

Details: http://signup.compose thefuture.com/ • Life Technologies and its Ion

Brian Merritt, the founder of Compose the Future, describes his interactive Web site to conference goers.

Tyler McNaney, the creator of the Filabot system, shows how his invention can recycle plastic waste into material suitable for 3-D printing machines.

Proton Sequencer will offer wholehuman-genome sequencing in one day for $1,000 by the end of 2012. Details: www.lifetechnologies​.com/us/en/home.html • The Cyberhero League is a social platform that helps kids earn points and interact with great nonprofits through fun activities and good work. Details: www.cyber​ heroleague.com • I3 BioDesigns BiliSuit is a fiber-optic LED garment used to treat newborns with jaundice. The innovative garment is being developed by the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences and was presented to conference goers by Tiffany Pressler. Details: www​ .uams.edu/bioventures www.wfs.org

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• B-TEMIA, a Canadian company, has launched a wearable ­d ermoskeleton that can relieve stress and weight on critical muscles and joints. The skeleton system is for use on the battlefield or wherever someone has a long way to walk, lots of stairs to climb, or just has trouble getting around. Details: www.b-temia​.com “For me, the BetaLaunch was fascinating because of the diversity of backgrounds in reference to the people attending,” said Anastasia Kilani, lead artist of the Cyberhero League. “Although each person was there with their own ideas and interest, it felt like a huge and beautiful collaboration of the people in our world looking to participate in making a better future for all…. Over all, the BetaLaunch was a huge success and I look forward to seeing what will be chosen next year!”

Patrick Tucker is deputy editor of THE FUTURIST, director of communications for the World Future Society, and Futurists: Beta­Launch coordinator.

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Future Food and Health: A WorldFuture Sampler The Taste of Tomorrow: Super Burgers and the Next Big Fish On tomorrow’s dinner plates, look for the “guilt-free, heart-­ attack-fighting super burger,” said Josh Schonwald , author of The Taste of Tomorrow (Harper, 2012).

“Grown in a test tube or cultured in a petri dish, this alternative meat will require a lot less water and land to harvest, contain no antibiotics or growth hormones, and will not even be susceptible to diseases [such as] Mad Cow,” he said.

Moreover, creating our food supply in the laboratory virtually eliminates greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, the best bonus is for overweight consumers: This “meat” will have the fat profile of an avocado.

“With soaring rates of meat consumption in China and India, this ‘ n e w m e a t ’ ca n ’t co me soo n enough,” said Schonwald.

Fascinated by the statements of marine aquaculturist Daniel ­Benetti, Schonwald also explored “the seafood of the future.” Benetti made bold claims that he had found “the next big fish,” cobia.

With the appearance of a shark, cobia grows six times as fast as salmon, is high in omega-3s, and tastes like popular and expensive Chilean sea bass and halibut. At the same time, it “adapts bizarrely to living in a cage.”

The two major types of fish farming are open-ocean aquaculture and land-based recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS). In RAS like the low-salinity aquaculture at Virginia Cobia Farms, growing fish in large vats is very efficient and eliminates the problems of openwater farming: There is no risk of fish escapes, efficient water recyclers conserve water, and recycled fish waste is used to produce energy. Pompano and yellow tail are already grown this way, and littleknown barramundi are sturdy and perfect for aquaculture.

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By Joyce L. Gioia

Schonwald concluded with a simple recipe for future diets: “One, go to farmers’ markets.

Two, eat GMO [genetically modified] papayas. And three, buy fish that were raised in indoor recirculating systems.”

Scenarios for Primary Care In 2025 Four possible scenarios for the evolution of primary care in the United States were presented by Clem Bezold, chairman of the Institute for Alternative Futures (IAF).

In the first scenario, “Many Needs, Many Models,” patientcentered medical care is expanded. Electronic medical records support providers, and consumers enjoy cell-phone applications to monitor their vital signs, as well as digital health agents, gaming, and social networking. Employers drop their health-care coverage, and workers participate in Health Insurance Exchanges with lower-cost health care. Unfortunately, significant disparities remain in access and quality of health care.

The second scenario, “Lost Decade, Lost Health,” features recurrent severe recessions. There are more significant shortages of primary-care providers and declining physician revenue, compared with the first scenario. Patients with good insurance have access to great care with advanced technology; however, there are more uninsured people, and many turn to black-market care and unreliable advice online.

The third scenario, certainly the most optimistic view of the future that Bezold offered, is “Primary Care That Works for All.” In this scenario, the United States has near universal health-insurance coverage, and everyone receives primary care. With an expanded team of providers, this positive

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picture addresses (and solves) all major issues by providing local, social, and economic foundations for equitable health and proactive electronic records. Here, capitation also leads to reduced costs.

In the fourth scenario, “I Am My Own Medical Home,” a high level of technology-enabled self-care, with high-deductible insurance, is available. Wellness and disease management, noninvasive self-­ biomonitoring, personal health ­records, and digital avatars providing health coaching all support consumers in maintaining their health. With all of this self-care, health-care costs drop significantly, and, not surprisingly, the demand for human primary-care providers also declines.

Bezold concluded by polling the audience to gauge how likely or preferable each of the scenarios was. Almost all in attendance preferred “Primary Care That Works for All,” though they were less positive about its likelihood.

Joyce L. Gioia is president and CEO of The Herman Group, www.hermangroup.com.

Emily Empel (left) and Heather Schlegel explore the future shopping ­experience.

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continued from page 51 often. Herson explained that any given drug may affect a given patient differently due to interaction of outside environmental factors with the drug and the patient’s behavior, lifestyle, and diet. Also, no medical innovation can control for individual patients choosing to overdose or to use other people’s prescribed drugs.

“There will always be adverse events, and we will always be learning, even when we know more about personalized medicine,” he said.

At the macro level, pharmaceutical companies and health-provider networks will accumulate and share extensive databases of patient outcomes. They will plug in to patients’ home biosensors and will be notified immediately if someone reacts badly to a drug or treatment.

“What we need is early safety signals, some continuous form of surveillance. We need patient-level data,” he said.

Of course, all of this robotic surveillance of one’s daily living may sound bizarre and frightening to people today. But Herson noted that today’s millennials will be the adults by then, and they may be far more comfortable with all the monitoring.

“People will be digital natives and used to going to computers in everyday life and having surveillance of all their activities,” he said.

The Future of Quantum Computers Quantum computers are already solving problems too complex for even the most powerful conventional computers. Geordie Rose, creator of the D-Wave One computing system, thinks that quantum computing just might be the key to true machine intelligence. In his keynote presentation, “Using Quantum Com-

puters to Build Artificial Brains,” he discussed the nature of quantum computing and its implications.

One premise of quantum mechanics is that, every time a decision is made, the whole universe forks and generates copies of itself only marginally different from that original decision. In like fashion, a quantum computer sees more than one possibility, generates copies of each, and then uses information from each and combines them to solve a problem.

A conventional computer can calculate far more rapidly than a human but cannot make decisions, per se. It can only follow prewritten instructions. A quantum computer might be able to make decisions, which will open up many new possibilities for robotic action.

“One example is autonomous robots in hostile environments like Mars,” Rose said. “Those robots will be exposed to things that their designers did not know about a priori, and they will need some autonomy to make some decisions on their own.”

Quantum computers are increasing in computing power. Rose presented the historical trajectory from Calypso, a computer chip with four qubits (quantum bits), in 2002 to Vesuvius 3, a computer chip that debuted this year with 512 qubits. He forecasts that in 10 years, someone could design a chip that holds millions of qubits. Then there is no telling just how smart upcoming lines of quantum systems could be.

“Hopefully, in 10 to 15 years, it won’t be me giving this presentation. It will be something that we created,” he said.

Innovative Approaches to Earth Conservation People striving to reduce their www.wfs.org

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“carbon footprints” by cutting back electricity use, eating less meat, and so on mean well, but their efforts will not in themselves curb climate change and pollution, according to Ramez Naam, senior associate at the Foresight Institute. In his session, “Can Innovation Save the Planet?” he stressed that society will have to combine sustainable behaviors with the rollout of new green technologies.

“It has to be based on innovation,” he said.

Innovations have already dropped the cost of solar power from $20 a watt 30 years ago to around $1 today—roughly on par with coal, oil, and natural gas, Naam said. He also spoke highly of research and development in lithium-ion batteries, which he said could eventually give electric cars the same range as combustible-fuel-powered cars of today.

“Energy storage is a bigger problem than energy capturing, but there is no reason to believe that we will not solve it,” he said.

Naam turned to the related subjects of water and food. Stores of freshwater are running low throughout the world, and projections are that the global community will have to increase food yield 70% by 2050.

Both problems are solvable, he argued: The amount of energy required to desalinate water has dropped by a factor of nine since 1970, and improved farming methods are already enabling farmers to grow the same amounts of produce with one-third to one-half less energy and water than they needed in the 1970s.

Furthermore, in industrialized nations, food yield is twice what it is in the world as a whole. Naam is hopeful that more developments, particularly in genetic crop modification, could lead to even bigger farm productivity gains in years to come. On a related note, he reported that the European Union’s science advisor concluded recently that genetically modified crops have no more adverse health effects than average crops.

“Ideas are the ultimate resource.

They grow over time, and they are the only one that accumulates over time,” he said. “Ideas find substitutes for resources.”

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Education, Agency, Crisis, and Emergence: A WorldFuture Sampler

By David Hochfelder DAN DOWNEY FOR WFS

DAN DOWNEY FOR WFS

When Ivory Towers Fall: The Emerging Education Marketplace Education stands on the threshold of dramatic changes, according to Thomas Frey, executive director and senior futurist of the DaVinci Institute. Traditionally, education has meant teaching: content delivery from experts to novices.

Build some dorms and academic buildings, attract famous faculty, and you have a university.

However, the hyperconnected world of the twenty-first century will upend this traditional model.

Frey predicted that education will focus on learning instead of teaching and will not be tied to physical campuses. Four primary trends are shaping this landscape: 1. Technologies that shorten the distance between students and experts.

2. Emerging social contexts that will emphasize learning over traditional content delivery.

3. A new courseware industry that will make education asynchronous and more affordable.

4. Experimental emersion camps.

The college of the twenty-first century will not have a physical campus, dorms, credit hours, sports teams, or even four-year degrees, Frey concluded.

Our Role in Shaping the Future The idea of human agency is a central, though often unacknowledged, aspect of futures work, according to Jennifer Jarratt and John Mahaffie, principals of Leading Futurists LLC. Human agency is our ability to shape more positive futures in both small and large ways.

Jarratt and Mahaffie identified 54

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November-December 2012

Thomas Frey

Michael Marien moderates the Global MegaCrisis panel.

several types of futurists who consider human agency important to their work: • The Advocate persistently works for large-scale societal changes.

• The Undercover Futurist seeks to instill futures thinking in existing organizations without selfidentifying as a futurist.

• The Reframer succeeds in changing how people think about the world or themselves.

• The Personal Futurist encourages individuals to use futures methods and tools to anticipate and plan for their futures.

• The Citizen Futurist uses futures thinking in social and political activism.

• The Accidental Futurist comes to realize that she has been doing futures work all along, at work or through social activism.

What all these futurists share in common is their desire to promote human agency and expand our possibilities.

Global MegaCrisis: How Bad Will It Get? What Strategies?

The biggest question confronting humanity is whether we are facing a global resources and climatechange crisis, and, if so, what to do about it.

Veteran futurists Michael Marien (GlobalForesightBooks.org) and William Halal (TechCast.org) have been debating this issue for the •

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past three years. They have published four scenarios: “Decline to Disaster,” “Muddling Down,” “Muddling Up,” and Rise to Maturity.”

Halal claimed that new information and energy technologies right over the horizon will enable us to make a seamless transition to a prosperous, post-carbon world.

Marien worried that we are woefully unprepared to meet the challenges of scarce, expensive resources and a changing climate.

Richard Slaughter, director of ForesightInternational.com.au, shared Marien’s concern. Slaughter has been warning that this crisis is the “biggest wake-up call in history,” and he wondered if our species can mature in time.

Thomas Homer-Dixon, professor at University of Waterloo and author of The Upside of Down, said that our future is not determined either way, that human agency will shape our future. To successfully confront these challenges, he called for deep changes in society, including changing how we think about energy, economics, and politics.

Lessons from Three Decades of Futures Research Negative visions of the future are easier to build than positive ones. This is because scenario builders are often unaware of the emergent properties of the systems they study, said Jay Ogilvy, visit-

DAN DOWNEY FOR WFS

William Halal

Naam also argued for taxes on carbon-dioxide emissions. If anti-tax critics contend that it would harm the economy, then a government could even lower the income tax in direct proportion to the carbon tax increase, so that the overall tax implementation is revenue-neutral.

“Tax the bad, not the good,” Naam advised. “Whatever you tax, you will get less of it.”

Bringing a Country Together on Sustainability

C.G. WAGNER / WFS

Jay Ogilvy

ing lecturer and former dean of Presidio Graduate School and the co-founder of Global Business Network. Emergent properties are not predictable from the existing states or properties of those systems.

Ogilvy pointed out that consciousness and language are emergent processes. For instance, in principle, there could not have been a first word, and there is no such thing as half a language.

Emergence is a sudden change of state of a system, like the transition from water to ice. Taking emergence into account encourages holistic systems-based thinking that focuses on distributed relationships instead of discrete and separable causes and effects. Paying greater attention to emergent phenomena will make it easier for futurists and planners to build positive scenarios.

David Hochfelder is an assistant professor of history and associate director of the Public History Program at University at Albany, SUNY.

For a country to effectively stop environmental degradation and adopt environmentally healthy ways of life, it needs committed action both at the top levels of leadership and at the grassroots, observed Kenneth Hunter, chair of the WFS Board of Directors, and Zhouying Jin, senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in their joint session, “Systemic Solution to Achieving Green Economic Growth and Sustainable Development.”

Hunter and Jin noted that China and the United States both fall short: China has a lot of top-level action, but not grassroots activism, while the United States has grassroots activism but ambivalent top leadership. Also, both countries’ leaders tend to overly focus on the near future, but might move eventually toward action that is more integrated, cohesive, and oriented toward the long term.

“We are dealing with very large and complex systems, and it requires large management systems,” Hunter said. “But local communities and companies are where things have to actually happen. That’s where the integration has to take place.”

Jin presented an ideal model for action called the Long-Term Strategic Sy stem Integration Model (LSSIM). Its characteristics include attending to the goals of environmental sustainability, social welfare, and economic growth all at once.

Continuing innovation, road maps for progress, and verifications to check results are other key components, along with exercising strategic management at the micro, macro, and meso levels.

Serious problems persist in China, www.wfs.org

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KAZ OKADA FOR WFS

Kenneth Hunter

according to Jin, and many of its renewable-energy businesses are struggling. For example, 30% of its photovoltaic companies have cut production in the last few years. Jin stated that a comprehensive strategy and the use of futures studies to formulate strategic goals will be necessary to achieve truly sustainable outcomes.

“China has taken a solid step in developing a green economy, and its future plan is also exciting. However, for really actualizing green development, the challenges are severe,” she said. “The only option is to fundamentally change the development mode.”

The Future Is Ours to Create “You can’t let the future happen to you. We all have to be active participants in our future. We all have to have a vision for it, and we all have to have an opinion about it. We all have to do something,” said Intel futurist Johnson.

This year ’s WorldFuture participants came from many places and professions, and they doubtless had a multitude of differing opinions about the future. But all would have agreed with Johnson’s statement. It’s indeed vital that people and organizations everywhere participate actively in creating the future.

In that spirit, the World Future Society will continue to be a gathering place for future-minded people everywhere, both now and in years to come. ❑

THE FUTURIST

About the Author Rick Docksai is an associate editor for THE FUTURIST and World Future Review.

E‑mail rdocksai@wfs.org.

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S P E C I A L

A D V E R T I S I N G

S E C T I O N

CONSULTANTS AND SERVICES

A

listing of consulting futurists. For infor­mation about being listed in the directory, published in every issue of THE FUTURIST and available on the Web at www.wfs.org, call Jeff Cornish toll free at 1-800-989-8274 or 301-656-8274, or fax 301-951-0394.

Karl Albrecht International San Diego, CA U.S.A. Phone: 858-576-1500 E-mail: futures@KarlAlbrecht.com Web: KarlAlbrecht.com Contact: Dr. Karl Albrecht Conference Keynote: “Possibilities: Getting the Future You Deserve — Survival Secrets of the World’s Oldest Companies.”

Alsek Research Economic Futures 7650 S. McClintoch Dr., #103-233 Tempe, AZ 85284 Phone: 480-225-2507 E-mail: jfoltz@alsekresearch.com Web: www.alsekresearch.com Contact: Joan Foltz Keynotes, workshops, and anticipatory analysis of global markets, investing, and business structures. Author of Market Whipped: And Not By Choice.

Alternative Futures Associates 100 N. Pitt St., Suite 307, Alexandria, VA 22314-3134 Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640 E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com Web: www.altfutures-afa.com Contact: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck, Eric Meade Vision and scenario development, strategic planning, trend analysis, workshop design and facilitation, presentations, keynotes, consulting.

Atlas Safety & Security Design, Inc. 770 Palm Bay Ln., Suite 4-I, Miami, FL 33138 Phone: 305-756-5027 Fax: 305-754-1658 E-mail: ratlas@ix.netcom.com Web: www.cpted-security.com Contact: Dr. Randall Atlas, AIA, CPP Pioneers in crime prevention through environmental design. Design of jails, prevention of premises liability lawsuits.

Aviv Consulting 15363 NE 201st St. Woodinville, WA 98072 Phone: 425-415-6155 Fax: 425-415-0664 E-mail: avivconsulting@gmail.com Web: www.avivconsulting.com Contact: Aviv Shahar Helping leaders and teams develop their vision

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and design the future. Innovation, strategy, coaching, consulting, retreats.

Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking 46 B/4 Jerusalem St., Kfar Saba, Israel 44369 Phone: 972-54-558-7940 Fax: 972-9-766965 Web: www.futurist-thinking.co.il E-mail: bisk@futurist-thinking.co.il Contact: Tsvi Bisk Strategic futurism: “Getting from Here to There” (Keynote speaker) Jewish, Mid-East and Mediterranean Futures (consulting).

Christensen Associates, Inc.

Common Sense Medicine 812 W. 8th St., Suite 2A, Plainview, TX 79072 Phone: 806-291-0700 Fax: 806-293-8229 E-mail: drjonzdo@yahoo.com Web: www.commonsensemedicine.org Contact: Lon Jones DO, Jerry Bozeman M.Ed., LPC Adaptations today are the future. The authors of The Boids and the Bees tell how to guide adaptations in our living systems: healthcare, education, economy, even us.

Creating the Future, Inc. with Edward D. Barlow, Jr.

8168 Manitoba St., No. 2, Playa Del Ray, CA 90293-8291 Phone: 310-578-0405 Fax: 310-578-0455 E-mail: chris@camcinc.com Web: www.camcinc.com Contact: Chris Christensen, CMC Avoid devastating surprises! Exploit ANY future! Stimulating and entertaining keynotes, workshops, assessments, and consulting.

2907 Division St., Suite 109, St. Joseph, MI 49085 Phone: 269-982-1830 Fax: 269-982-1541 E-mail: info@creatingthefuture.com Web: www.creatingthefuture.com Contact: Ed Barlow (staff: Sandy, Tammy, and Tresea) Relating influences of a changing world to industries, organizations, professions, communities.

Presentations, strategic planning facilitation.

Joseph F. Coates, Consulting Futurist, Inc.

de Bono For Business

5420 Connecticut Ave. NW, #619 Washington, DC 20015-2832 Phone 202-363-7440 Fax 202-363-4139 Email: joe@josephcoates.com Web: www.josephcoates.com The future is my business: futures research, consultation, trend analysis, scenario development, visioning, scientific, technological and social forecasting, training, briefings, workshops, presentations and keynotes. Coates has been one of the most frequently cited authors in Future Survey and one of the most popular speakers at the World Future Society annual meetings. He is the author or co-author of six books, most recently A Bill of Rights for 21st Century America, and of 2025: Scenarios of US and Global Society Reshaped by Science and Technology. He has had assignments from half of the Fortune 100 firms, and has had published 290 articles on the future since 1990. He is also responsible for 200 proprietary reports to business, government and association clients. Coates will enlighten you on the future of any subject. Prepare for an unforgettable encounter.

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248 W. Loraine St., #103, Glendale, CA 91202 Phone: 818-507-6055 E-mail: info@LyndaCurtin.com Web: www.deBonoForBusiness.com Contact: Lynda Curtin, the Opportunity Thinker Lift your thinking. Learn breakthrough futurist tools—lateral thinking, six thinking hats. Workshops. Keynotes. Facilitation.

FutureManagement Group AG Wallufer Strasse 3a, Eltville, Germany D-65343 Phone: 49-6123-7 55 53 Fax: 49-6123-7 55 54 Web: www.FutureManagementGroup.com E-mail: Office@FutureManagementGroup.com Contacts: Pero Micic, Claudia Schramm Use the “Eltville Model” of FutureManagement to see more of the future than your competitors!

Future Problem Solving Program International, Inc. 2015 Grant Pl., Melbourne, FL 32901 Phone: 321-768-0078 Fax: 321-768-0097 E-mail: mail@fpspi.org Web: www.fpspi.org Contact: Marianne Solomon, Executive ­Director FPSPI is an established educational program that provides a 6-step problem solving process to assist students as they think about the future.

The Futures Corporation 1109 Main St., Ste. 299A, Boise, ID 83702 Phone: 208-345-5995 Fax: 208-345-6083 E-mail: JLuthy@futurescorp.com Web: www.futurescorp.com Contact: Dr. John Luthy Strategic thinking/planning; evolving leadership; organization redesign/development; trend analysis; scenario planning; business growth ­strategies.

The Futures Lab 2130 Goodrich Ave., Austin, TX 78704 Phone: 512-468-4505 E-mail: dwoodgate@futures-lab.com Web: www.futures-lab.com Contact: Derek Woodgate International futures-based consultancy specializing in consumer, business futures. Leaders in the future potential business.

Futurist Speaker Thomas Frey DaVinci Institute, 511 E South Boulder Road, Louisville, CO 80027 Phone: 303-666-4133 E-mail: deb@davinciinstitute.com Web: www.futuristspeaker.com Contact: Debra Frey Thomas Frey is Google’s top-rated futurist speaker and IBM’s most award-winning engineer. Author of Communicating with the Future—the book that changes everything.

Speaking topics: future of business, work, education, transportation, government, and more.

The Greenway Group 25 Technology Pkwy. South, Suite 101, Norcross, GA 30092 Phone: 678-879-0929 Fax: 678-879-0930 E-mail: jcramer@di.net Web: www.greenway.us Contact: James Cramer, chairman Strategic change, trends, forecasts, research.

Architecture and design technology. Journals:

Design Intelligence. Publications: The Almanac of Architecture & Design, How Firms Succeed, Design + Enterprise, Leadership by Design, Communication by Design, Value Redesigned.

H.G. Hudson and Associates 34 Warren Dr., Newport News, VA 23608 Phone: 757-874-5414 E-mail: HUDSON2059@msn.com Contact: Henry G. Hudson, president and CEO Management consulting help in advanced administrative services, operations, systems, methods, procedures, policies, strategy, and management.

Innovation Focus Inc. 111 E. Chestnut St., Lancaster PA 17602-2703 Phone: 717-394-2500 Web: www.innovationfocus.com Contacts: Christopher W. Miller, Ph.D.; Anne Orban, M.Ed. Innovation Focus is an internationally recognized consulting firm that brings innovation to all stages of product life cycle management and provides proven processes for deep customer understanding and meaningful innovation. Clients include: Kraft Foods, Kimberly Clark, WD-40, Bristol-Myers Squibb.

Institute for Alternative Futures 100 N. Pitt St., Suite 307, Alexandria, VA 22314-3134 Phone: 703-684-5880 Fax: 703-684-0640 E-mail: futurist@altfutures.com Web: www.altfutures.com Contacts: Clement Bezold, Jonathan Peck, William Rowley, MD Uses research reports, workshops, scenarios, and visioning to help organizations understand future possibilities and create their “preferred future.”

Institute for Global Futures 2084 Union St., San Francisco, CA 94123 Phone: 415-563-0720 Fax: 415-563-0219 E-mail: info@globalfuturist.com Web: www.GlobalFuturist.com Contact: Dr. James Canton Futures based keynotes, consulting and research for any vertical industry by leading futurist James Canton.

Institute for Participatory Management and Planning P.O. Box 1937, Monterey, CA 93942-1937 Phone: 831-373-4292 Fax: 831-373-0760 E-mail: ipmp@aol.com Web: www.ipmp-bleiker.com Contacts: Annemarie Bleiker, Hans Bleiker, Jennifer Bleiker We offer a Leadership Boot-Camp for guiding complex problem-solving and decision-making efforts.

KAIROS Future AB P.O. Box 804, S-10136 Stockholm, Sweden Phone: (46 8) 545 225 00 Fax: (46 8) 545 225 01 E-mail: info@kairosfuture.se Web: www.kairosfuture.se Contacts: Mats Lindgren, Anna Kiefer Values, work, technology, marketing. Methods: scenarios, studies, lectures, seminars, consulting. Public and private sectors.

Leading Futurists LLC 4420 49th St., NW, Washington, DC 20016 Phone: 202-271-0444 E-mail: jbmahaffie@starpower.net Web: www.leadingfuturists.biz Contacts: John B. Mahaffie, Jennifer Jarratt Futures consulting, workshops, scenarios, research, keynote talks to help organizations ­discover new opportunities and challenges.

Members, Association of Professional Futurists.

MG Rush Performance Learning 1301 W. 22nd St., Suite 603, Oak Brook, IL 60523

Phone: 630-954-5880 Fax: 630-954-5889 E-mail: futurist@mgrush.com Contacts: Terrence Metz, 630-954-5882; Kevin Booth, 630-954-5884 Facilitation of, and facilitator training for: scenario planning, strategy development, group decision-making, workshop design, ideation, option development and analysis, and training of facilitative leadership.

Minkin Affiliates 135 Riviera Dr., #305, Los Gatos, CA 95032 Phone: 408-402-3020 E-mail: barryminkin@earthlink.net Web: minkinaffiliates.com Contact: Barry Minkin Keynote speaker, bestselling author, global manage­ment consultant, three decades linking emerging trends to consumer and market strategy.

More consultants and services, next page www.wfs.org

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Consultants

and

Services

Next Consulting 104 Timber Ridge Rd., State College, PA 16801 Phone: 814-237-2575 Fax: 814-863-4257 E-mail: g7g@psu.edu Web: nextconsulting.us Contact: Geoffrey Godbey, Ph.D. Repositioning leisure/tourism organizations for the near future. Speeches, ideation, imagineering. Client list on request.

Jim Pinto Associates P.O. Box 131673, Carlsbad, CA 92013 Phone: 858-353-5467 E-mail: jim@jimpinto.com Web: www.JimPinto.com Contact: Jim Pinto Speaker and consultant: technology futures, industrial automation, global business trends, ­Internet business relationships.

Pinyon Partners LLC 140 Little Falls St., Suite 210, Falls Church, VA 22046 Phone: 703-651-0359 E-mail: pshoemaker@pinyonpartners.com Web: www.pinyonpartners.com Contacts: Peter B.G. Shoemaker; Dan ­Garretson, Ph.D. Quantitative and qualitative. Art and Science.

However you want to characterize it, our distinctive combination of the hard-nosed and the deeply intuitive is perfectly suited for those navigating over the horizon. Expansive explorations of what’s next; engaging engagements with change; consultations, workshops, research, and talks aimed at creating future-oriented clarity, purpose, insight, and confidence. Member, Association of Professional Futurists.

Qi Systems 35 Seacoast Terr., Apt. 6P, Brooklyn, NY 11235 Phone: 718-769-9655 E-mail: QiSys@msn.com Web: www.qisystems.org Contact: Ronn Parker, Ph.D. Spectrum Counseling: conflict resolution, conscious evolution, martial arts, meditation methods, mindbody strategies, transformational learning.

Connect!

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David Pearce Snyder, Consulting Futurist The Snyder Family Enterprise, 8628 Garfield St., Bethesda, MD 20817-6704 Phone: 301-530-5807 Fax: 301-530-1028 E-mail: david@the-futurist.com Web: www.the-futurist.com Contact: Sue Snyder High-impact motivating presentations.

Strategic assessments, socio-technologic forecasts/scenarios. Keynote addresses, strategic briefings, workshops, surveys.

Strategic Futures® Strategic Futures Consulting Group, Inc. 113 South Washington St., Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone: 703-836-8383 Fax: 703-836-9192 E-mail: info@strategicfutures.com Web: www.strategicfutures.com Contact: Ron Gunn or Jennifer Thompson Strategic planning, succession planning including mentoring, executive coaching, organizational change facilitation, and matrix management assistance.

The TechCast Project Department of Information Systems & Technology Management, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. 20052 Phone: 202-994-5975 E-mail: Halal@gwu.edu Web: www.techcast.org Contact: William E. Halal, professor, George Washington University; president, Techcast LLC TechCast is an online research project that pools the knowledge of 100 experts worldwide to forecast breakthroughs in all fields of science and technology. Results are updated in real time and distributed to corporations, governments, and other subscribers to aid in their strategic planning. The project has been featured in The Washington Post, Newsweek, The Futurist, and various journals. The National Academies consider TechCast among the best systems available, and Google ranks it No. 2 or 3 out of 45 million hits. TechCast also gives presentations, conducts customized studies, and performs most types of consulting related to technology and strategic change.

van der Werff Global, Ltd. SynOvation Solutions 455 Hazelwood Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94127 Phone: 415-298-3008 E-mail: info@synovationsolutions.com Web: www.synovationsolutions.com Contacts: Bruce L. Tow, David A. Gilliam Future-is-now resources to help you achieve key and mission-critical breakthroughs or creatively evolve your business to meet future challenges.

Synthesys Strategic Consulting Ltd. Belsize Park, London NW3 UK Phone: 44-207-449-2903 Fax: 44-870-136-5560 E-mail: www.hardintibbs.com Web: www.synthstrat.com Contact: Hardin Tibbs, CEO Synthesys specializes in using futures research to develop innovative strategies. Based in London UK, with international experience in both the public and private sectors, across many different industries. Projects include horizon scanning, strategic sense-­making, scenarios, vision building, assumption testing, and strategy formulation, either as expert input or by co-production directly with leadership teams.

Link to futurist consultants and services online at www.wfs.org/consultants

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4958 Crystal Circle, Hoover, AL 35226 Phone: 888-448-3779 Fax: 888-432-9263 E-mail: terry@globalfuture.com Web: www.globalfuture.com Contact: Dr. Terry J. van der Werff, CMC Confidential advisor to corporate leaders worldwide on global trends, executive leadership, and strategic change.

Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc. 200 E. 33rd St., Suite 9I, New York, NY 10016 Phone: 212-889-7007 Fax: 212-679-0628 E-mail: info@weineredrichbrown.com Web: www.weineredrichbrown.com Contact: Arnold Brown, Edie Weiner For over two decades, the pioneers in detecting emerging trends and linking them to a ­ ction.

Xland sprl 111 Av Grandchamp, Brussels, Belgium 1150 Phone: 32-475-827-190 Fax: 32-2-762-46-08 Web: www.xland.be E-mail: xland@skynet.be Contact: D. Michel Judkiewicz Trend analysis, scenarios, forecasting opportunities/threats based on strong and weak signals for resilient strategies.

Book Review An Economy Of, By, And For the People

By Rick Docksai

In Owning Our Future, business ethicist Marjorie Kelly envisions commerce that makes human wellbeing, not wealth, its goal.

Although economic stagflation may be everywhere we look, seeds of a new, healthy, ecologically sustainable economy that serves the many appear to be sprouting. ­Marjorie Kelly, director of ownership strategy at Cutting Edge Capital, calls this new mode the generative economy. It encompasses many different business models, but they have a common trait: private ownership for the common good.

Generative design creates stability by avoiding excess, Kelly explains.

These schemes generate wealth for their owners, but not to the extreme degree of today’s institutions. They are set up expressly so that too much wealth does not end up concentrated in a select few hands. More importantly, these businesses operate under clearly stated ethical frameworks and societal missions. Their founders direct them to serve community needs, not to maximize profit.

“They know it’s possible to have plenty and recognize that enough is enough,” Kelly writes. “There are other things they value more highly, like being happy, living authentically, feeling alive. Living well in community. Leaving the world a better place.”

Examples are emerging everywhere. The “solidarity economy”—cooperatives and nonprofits—is catching on in Latin America and Canada. Quebec has formally recognized it as an economic sector and now regularly funds it.

Other examples: • The United Kingdom’s building

which means that the societies are memberworld’s financial system owned banking orgarests upon a multitude nizations. Because the of claims to money that customers are the ownno one has the money to ers, the banks exist to actually pay! Its outserve their needs, not come is already obvious: to enrich shareholders. financial crashes, like They have far lowerthe one that swept the than-average rates of world in 2008. foreclosures and loan Kelly places hope in defaults to show for it, such generative design since borrowers obtain models as the building loans under fair terms societies, John Lewis, and can work out reaand Minwind. With their sonable payment ar- Owning Our Future: commitments to their rangements.

The Emerging Ownership communities and to • A British super- Revolution by Marjorie their rank-and-file emmarket company, John Kelly. Berrett-Koehler. ployees, they are examL e w i s P a r t n e r s h i p , 2012. 245 pages. $19.95. ples of the responsible states its mission as and sustainable business commitment to the happiness of its employees. Each practices that the global economy so employee has partial ownership in critically needs.

“As we make the painful turn into the company, and between 40% and 60% of every year’s after-tax profits a new era—characterized by climate go directly to the employees as bo- change, water shortages, species exnuses and salary increases. And on tinction, vast unemployment, stagone occasion, when one of its ware- nant wages, staggering differentials houses had to shut down, the man- in health, and bloated debt loads— agement helped the displaced em- the industrial-age model of ownerployees to write résumés and find ship is beginning to make less sense,” she writes. “It’s time to move new jobs elsewhere.

• Minnesota’s energy cooperative beyond growth, to recognize that the Minwind operates the first farmer- economy as we once knew it will owned wind-power turbines in the never return. Nor should it.”

The twentieth century saw a United States. All shareholders live in Minnesota, and 85% of the inves- worldwide clash of capitalism and tors come from rural communities. communism, and communism’s colThe company is a sharp departure lapse left commentators proclaiming from the traditional business model that capitalism is the only game in under which farmers build wind tur- town. Marjorie Kelly’s ground-level bines on their land but lease away reporting proves that it is not: Forthe rights to absentee developers; the ward-thinking entrepreneurs are refarmers themselves get to claim the nouncing the worst aspects of both ideologies and constructing new wealth.

Society today wrongly believes ways of owning property and creatthat wealth creation is a virtually ing profits that affirm the individual limitless process, according to Kelly. while also benefiting the collective.

She argues that growth always has Readers who long for a more just limits, and every economy eventu- economic order will find an abunally reaches them. She sharply dis- dance of provocative ideas in Owntinguishes the real economy versus ing Our Future. the financial economy, which consists of claims on the actual money About the Reviewer of the real economy.

Rick Docksai is associate editor for THE The financial economy is now four FUTURIST and World Future Review. times as big as the real economy, E‑mail rdocksai@wfs.org. ❑ www.wfs.org

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WorldFuture

2013

Exploring the Next Horizon

The annual conference of the World Future Society, to be held in Chicago, July 19-21, 2013, at the Hilton Chicago hotel.

Futurists are used to looking farther ahead than most others can. Now, we are challenging forward-thinking men and women to take the measure of horizons that are barely visible, yet are within reach of today’s generations.

And we are challenging futurists to sharpen their foresight skills now so that we can both imagine a better future and develop the resources we’ll need to build it.

Join your fellow horizon explorers from around the world at the World Future Society’s 2013 conference, to be held in Chicago, July 19-21, at the Hilton Chicago hotel!

Building on Success The reviews from WorldFuture 2012 in Toronto this past July were outstanding!

“I really enjoyed being around individuals who are inspired to talk about the real issues facing the economic health of our communities,” said Scott A. Gibbs, president, Economic Development Foundation of Rhode Island.

“The presentations were erudite and mind expanding.

Networking opportunities were robust. Your selection of luncheon and plenary speakers, very illuminating,” said Frank W. Maletz, MD

Special events like Futurists: BetaLaunch, the innovation expo, and Speed Futuring, a highly focused networking and discussion session, will be back for 2013 in Chicago. And to build on this excitement, our conference planners are developing a number of exciting possible features for WorldFuture 2013: • 22nd Century Lecture series: Inspired by THE FUTURIST’s special report on “The 22nd Century at First Light” (September-October 2012), we will invite leading futurists to share visions of “the next horizon” for each of our key foresight sectors: Sci/Tech, Commerce, Earth, Humanity, Governance, and Futuring.

• Poster Sessions, with author meet-and-greets. To ensure a broad and inclusive program, WorldFuture 2013 will invite presenters to display their latest work, with opportunities to discuss and debate ideas with conference goers in a collegial atmosphere.

• Professional development, networking, and career counseling. In addition to an outstanding selection of preconference Master Courses and the postconference Professional Members Forum, we will facilitate special-­ interest professionals in meeting their own networking and development goals. Among the groups meeting in Toronto in 2012 were police futurists, educators, public-sector professionals, and religious futurists. As well, the Association of Professional Futurists held numerous special events during WorldFuture 2012.

And back again will be career counseling, organized

by Helen Harkness, founder of Career Design Associates. Throughout the conference, participants will be able to sign up for appointments with a team of counselors, who will offer personalized career guidance.

SAM BERNERO

Program Takes Shape with Newly Confirmed Speakers Among the pioneering futurist-adventurers who have already made plans to “Explore the Next Horizon” are: • Ramez Naam is a computer scientist who held leadership roles on early versions of Microsoft Outlook and Microsoft Internet Explorer, as well as the Bing search engine. He is the author of the forthcoming book The Infinite Resource: The Power of Innovation on a Finite Planet (University Press of New England, spring 2013).

• Ben Goertzel, an artificial general intelligence (AGI) researcher whose activities include chief scientist of the financial prediction firm Aidyia Holdings, chairman of the AI software company Novamente LLC and the bioinformatics company Biomind LLC, chairman of the Artificial General Intelligence Society and the OpenCog Foundation, and vice chairman of futurist nonprofit Humanity+. He is also an advisor for Singularity University.

• Zhouying Jin, president of the Beijing Academy of Soft Technology, a senior researcher and professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and a member of the World Future Society’s Global Advisory Council. In 2012, Jin founded the World Future Society’s first chapter in China.

• Mitc h Altman, a self-described hacker and inventor, is president and CTO of Cornfield Electronics and co-founder of Noisebridge and 3ware. Perhaps his bestknown invention is TV-B-Gone, a universal remote-control device that turns off tele­ visions in public places.

• Erica Orange, vice president of Weiner, Edrich, Brown, Inc., is a strategic advisor and consultant, whose work has frequently appeared in THE FUTURIST. At WorldFuture 2013, she will again co-host the popular “Speed Futuring” (a networking and focused-discussion session) inaugurated at the ­Toronto conference.

Check the conference speakers page at WFS.org for the latest additions to what we anticipate will be an outstanding program!

For more information or to register online, please visit www.wfs.org

Head for Chicago to explore the next horizon!

About the Conference Hotel: The Hilton Chicago Elegance, comfort, and convenience are the hallmarks of one of Chicago’s grandest and best-known properties.

Our home for WorldFuture 2013, the Hilton Chicago on Michigan Avenue, overlooks Lake Michigan and Grant Park and is nestled among the city’s most popular cultural offerings: the Art Institute, the Field Museum … and Buddy Guy’s blues club, Legends!

The Hilton Chicago’s spacious guestrooms provide un­ rivaled comfort and feature HDTVs and in-room Concierge technology. The Athletic Club has modern fitness equipment, free weights, and an indoor running track. Watch the latest news on private flat-screen TVs on cardio equipment or relax in a heated indoor pool, whirlpool, and sauna.

But the best part of staying at the Hilton Chicago, of course, is having convenient access to all the events—and to your fellow participants—at WorldFuture 2013! Keep the conversations and connections going.

And, when you mention that you’re attending WorldFuture 2013, you’ll receive the hotel’s special discounted rate of $189 per night. Call 1-877-865-5320, and mention that you’re attending the World Future Society conference, or reserve your room online via the link provided on the WorldFuture 2013 conference ­homepage.

WorldFuture

2013

Exploring the Next Horizon

July 19–21, 2013 • Hilton Chicago • Chicago, Illinois U.S.A. Yes! I want to meet, exchange ideas with, and learn from my futurist ­colleagues. Please reserve my place at the World Future Society’s WorldFuture 2013. I understand registration ­includes admission to all ­sessions, the welcome reception, entrance to exhibits, and a list of pre-registrants. And if for any reason I am unable to attend, I may cancel and receive a full refund until June 21, 2013.

Register by Oct. 15, 2012

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2-day Luncheon Package (with speakers) — $119......................................................................................................................................................................

Single Luncheons — $65

Select one:

❑ Saturday

❑ Sunday.........................................................................................................................

❑ Professional Members Forum — $115 (for Professional Members)....................................................................................................................................

Professional Membership — $295 ($195 nonprofit /academic rate)

❑ Renewal

❑ New (Join now to qualify for the Forum.)..............

World Future Society membership — $79 ($20 for full-time students under the age of 25) ❑ Renewal ❑ New (Join now and take advantage of the members’ rate.).................................................................................................................

Tax-deductible Contribution to Scholarship Fund (Your $150 contribution will make it possible for a student to attend, but every dollar will help.)................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Total

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E-mail 7323

Your contact information will be published in the final program.

A member may register additional persons (friend, colleague, spouse, etc.) at the member rate. Please include the sponsoring member’s name and identification number here.

Name Identification Number Method of Payment ❑ Check or money order enclosed. (Payable to World Future Society.) ❑ Purchase order enclosed. P.O. #: ❑ Please charge my: ❑ MasterCard ❑ VISA ❑ Discover ❑ American Express Account number Expiration Date

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Hotel reservation forms will be sent with the acknowledgment of registration, or you can call the hotel directly at 1-877-865-5320. Mention that you’re attending the WFS meeting to receive your special rate of $189 USD (single or double) per night.

REFUND POLICY: If your plans to attend the conference change, you may receive a full refund until June 21, 2013. A $100 administrative fee will be charged for cancellations after June 21, 2013. No refunds will be given after July 5, 2013. Refund requests must be in writing by email, mail, or fax. Substitutions may be made at any time and are free until June 21, 2013. Substitutions are $100 after June 21, 2013.

MAIL TO: World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. • FAX TO: 1-301-951-0394 • CALL TOLL-FREE: 1-800-989-8274 (If outside the toll-free calling area, call 1-301-656-8274.) • E-MAIL: info@wfs.org • WEB SITE: www.wfs.org

World Future Society Programs The World Future Society is a nonprofit educational and scientific organization chartered in the District of Columbia, U.S.A., and is recognized by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service as a tax-exempt organization. The Society has about 25,000 members and subscribers in 80 nations.

PUBLICATIONS

• The Futurist: A magazine published bimonthly, covering trends, forecasts, and ideas about the future.

• Futurist Update: An e-mail newsletter available monthly to all ­members, covering a range of future-oriented news and useful links.

• World Future Review: A Journal of Strategic Foresight: A journal for futures practitioners and scholars, with articles on forecasting techniques and applications, profiles of futurists and organizations, and abstracts of current futures-relevant literature.

ACTIVITIES AND RESOURCES

• Conferences: The Society holds at least one major conference per year, to which all Society members are invited. Most conferences cover a wide range of topics related to the future. Most conferences are in the United States, but the Society has also held meetings in Canada and Austria.

• Groups: Futurist groups are active in a number of U.S. cities, such as Chicago, Washington, and Atlanta, and in more than two dozen countries.

• Books: New books of special interest to members may be purchased through the Society’s partnership with Amazon.com.

MEMBERSHIP PROGRAMS

• Regular Membership: Includes THE FUTURIST magazine; discounts on conferences and books published by the Society; and such other benefits as may be approved for members. Discounted memberships are also available for full-time students under age 25.

• Professional Membership: Programs and publications are available to meet the special needs of practitioners, researchers, scholars, and others who are professionally involved in forecasting, planning, or other futureoriented activities, including education and policy making. Professional members receive all the benefits of regular membership, plus a subscription to the journal World Future Review, as well as invitations to Professional Members’ Forums, and other benefits.

• Institutional Membership: The World Future Society’s Institutional Membership program offers special services for business firms, educational institutions, government agencies, associations, and other groups. Members receive all of the benefits of Professional Membership, plus copies of all books, monographs, conference proceedings, special reports, and other publications produced by the Society during the year of the membership; special discounts on bulk purchases of Society publications; assistance in locating sources of information, consultants, and speakers for conferences and meetings, getting information tailored specifically to the organization’s needs; and inclusion in the Society’s list of institutional members published on the Society’s Web site and annually in THE FUTURIST. For more information and an application, contact Membership Secretary, World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814 www.wfs.org.

www.wfs.org

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THE FUTURIST

November-December 2012

63

As Blogged Highlights from the Futurist Blog @WFS.org

On Being Human in a Transhuman Future Not all futurists believe humans will or should become transhuman, or that robots with general artificial intelligence will or should supersede humanity.

GOUHIER-GUIBBAUD-JMP / ABACAPRESS.COM / NEWSCOM

A subject that comes up frequently among futurist thinkers and writers is whether (or when) humans will merge with robots, whether (or when) machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, and what will become of humanity if (or when) it does. Here are a few recent excerpts from the Futurist Blog (www.wfs.org/ blogs).

The Future Olympic Games

By Richard Yonck Human enhancement, or augmentation, is in its very nascent stages. With the rare exception of sprinter Oscar Pistorius, it’s certainly not yet ready for Olympic prime time. Prosthetics, gene therapy, nanomedicine—much of what falls into this category is still theoretical or, at best, replacement rather than enhancement technology. Especially when gauged against the performance of an uber athlete.

But as we well know, technology continues to advance at a pace orders of magnitude faster than evolution-driven biology. In short, it’s only a matter of time before truly enhanced humans exist, capable of out­ performing even the best of unmodified athletes.

Of course, these enhanced players, cyborgs, cyber-­ athletes, or whatever else they’ll be called, will want to participate, too. After all, they’ll still be human beings with the same need to compete, the same desire for glory. Will they be allowed into the Olympics? Probably not. At least not at first, anyway.

So they’ll compete in their own version—call it the Extreme Olympics or the New Games, if you will.…

New competitions will invariably be conceived. Speed wall crawling or underwater marathons, perhaps.

They’ll be novel, they’ll be exciting, and they’ll be very, very popular.

Of course, the Classic Olympics would remain,… [but] the New Games will become the real draw for both spectators and the media. This will be where the money is. This will be the future of the Olympics because ultimately, this will be the future of humankind.

Richard Yonck is a foresight analyst for Intelligent Future LLC.

64

THE FUTURIST

November-December 2012

•

www.wfs.org

Oscar Pistorius, a South African sprinter (and double-amputee), competes in the London 2012 Olympic Games on August 5. ­Pistorius could be seen as the “father” of technologically enhanced sports, but which Olympic Games will future fans prefer— Classic or New?

“I Tweet from Basement, Home of Mom”: Time for a Cyberspace Manifesto 2.0?

I find the trend of humans being inconvenient rolls on and on.

By Dale Carrico

Eric Garland’s latest book is How to Predict the Future … and WIN!!!

It turns out that “Moore’s law” was a soap bubble, a skewed perspectival effect, and that processors become faster only to encourage software to become slower. It turns out that “accelerating change” was just the PR face of increasing insecurity as infrastructure gets looted, enterprise gets deregulated, welfare gets dismantled, and ecosystems get polluted beyond bearing.

It turns out that the Turing test has been a centurylong experiment in which the attribution of intelligence to non-intelligent artifacts has resulted in artificial imbecillence among the info-fixated humans who fell for it.

It turns out that our identities are bound up with our aging, vulnerable, scarred, skilled bodies after all, and that access and expression online are still stratified by race, sex, gender, morphology, money, geography, and history, and that denial is never some kind of triumphal overcoming.…

It turns out that incumbent elites were never afraid of our rising generation at all, but just saw in us the usual marks, and that the pop sci-tech journalists who fed our enthusiasm knew no better than to buy into the same line of hype we were.

It turns out the Digital Age and its post-humanoid avant-garde was a conceptually confused, scientifically superficial, emotionally infantile, politically pernicious farrago of ill-digested science-fiction conceits and hyperbolic corporate press releases and wooly theology and shrieking id.

Man, it’s been some fun, but our revolution mostly sucked, didn’t it? I guess there really is a difference between the virtual and the real.

Do All Transhumanists Want Immortality? No? Why Not?

By Hank Pellissier Immortality is a primary goal of many transhumanists, but not all. How many do or don’t want eternal life, and why? I recently conducted a survey … that queried hundreds of transhumanists on this question … [and] garnered a total of 818 respondents very quickly. …

The following statistics and comments are in response to my question: “If you don’t want immortality, what is your primary reason?” All of the respondents are selfdefined as transhumanists.

• 76.2% replied that they “did want immortality.”

• 4.6% replied that they didn’t want immortality because “the earth would be overpopulated.”

• 8.1% said they didn’t want immortality because of the “boredom” they feel they’d endure as a consequence.

• 3.7% said they didn’t want immortality because they wanted “to go to an afterlife.”

Hank Pellissier is managing director of the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technology. ❑

Read More at WFS.org/blog Keeping Toxins Out of Our Future

Dale Carrico is a teacher, writer, and critical theorist.

By Rick Docksai

JCPenney to Replace Human Cashiers with Robots

Chemical toxins are an increasingly serious threat to human and environmental health worldwide, according to Global Chemicals Outlook, a report that the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released on September 5 … [read more]

By Eric Garland JCPenney’s CEO Ron Johnson has made a bold statement regarding the future of the company—that it plans to move all of its inventory onto an advanced RFID system and obviate the need for human cashiers.…

Capital loves revenue streams that do not involve people, so no doubt the business media will love this.

But between manufacturing that uses robots and now retail that uses robots, will the class divide in the world get so sharp that there is a series of robots serving the remaining capital owners and top executives, and ­everyone else is hanging around loitering? Or will the displaced cashiers take out extra millions to go to college? And what would they do when they graduated?

Creating the “Builders” of Our Future

By Thomas Frey As something of a grand finale to their 11-week, full-immersion Ruby on Rails class, our first graduating class of DaVinci Coders took the stage on Demo Day to talk about the projects they worked on … [read more]

www.wfs.org

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THE FUTURIST

November-December 2012

65

Ideas to Inspire Share the Gift of Thought-Provoking Ideas and Tools for Building the Future Order Online! www.wfs.org/gifts Membership in the World Future Society increases your power to create a better future for yourself and ­others. Now you can share the Society’s unique and inspiring tools with colleagues, friends, and family by giving them gift memberships.

Each new member receives a subscription to THE ­FUTURIST and free access to the online archive, invitations to participate in international conferences, discounts on books published by the Society, a subscription to the monthly electronic newsletter Futurist Update, and more.

Your gift will arrive as a package containing these exclusive reports: • The Art of Foresight prepared by THE FUTURIST’s editorial staff.

• Urgent Warnings, Breakthrough Solutions, comprising key articles on critical issues and significant research, such as globalization, resource depletion, converging technologies, and more.

• Plus the latest Outlook report.

To make your gift complete, we’ll also send an ­attractive, hand-signed gift card bearing your own message.

And since membership includes subscriptions to THE FUTURIST and Futurist Update, your gift will continue to arrive for an entire year!

The first gift membership is $79, and all other gifts are just $65 each. (Note: Membership is just $20 per year for full-time students under age 25.)

Yes! I want to inspire others with a World Future Society membership.

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Mail to: World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, U.S.A. Telephone: 1-301-656-8274 • Toll-free Telephone: 1-800-989-8274 • Fax: 1-301-951-0394 • E-mail: info@wfs.org • Web site: www.wfs.org