Africa is estimated to have added between 26 million and 40 million new poor households, or between 30 and 35 percent of the estimated global new poor in 2020 (figure 2.2). COVID-19 has also exposed new sources of vulnerability. Against pre-pandemic times when poverty was more prevalent among rural, young, and undereducated individuals, the new poor are likely those living in urban areas and engaged in informal services, construction, and manufacturing (World Bank 2020c). Beyond the immediate impact of social distancing and closures on incomes, price inflation threatens to reduce food security further.13 At the same time, there has been an increase in social unrest in the form of violence against citizens.14 Human capital accumulation is severely affected by school closures and related learning losses.15 Economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a considerable increase in poverty rates in SubSaharan Africa.
FIGURE 2.2: New Poor at the US$1.90-a-Day Poverty Line in 2020
COVID-19 baseline
5.3 3.6 2.8
COVID-19 downside
9
0
49.3
26.2
4.8 3.4
10
East Asia and Pacific
56.5
20 Europe and Central Asia
30
40 Latin America and Caribbean
40
50
60 70 Million people Middle East and North Africa
80 Rest of the world
90
100
South Asia
110
120
Sub-Saharan Africa
Source: World Bank 2020c.
The emergence of social safety nets as a platform for equity, opportunity, resilience, and jobs… In view of Sub-Saharan Africa’s multiple challenges, the objectives and design of social safety nets have started to diversify. Today, most cash transfers are delivered with “accompanying measures” (also called cash “plus”) focusing on: (1) early childhood development and human capital, especially through behavioral change components; (2) climate shock response and mitigation in view of growing vulnerability in particular to climate shocks; or (3) economic/productive inclusion interventions focused on helping households build resilience to shocks and diversify their livelihoods (see figure 2.3). Such interventions typically include small productive grants, savings groups, coaching, and training, and often focus on empowering women and girls. They open a pathway to self-employment. In some contexts, public works programs provide a safety net through temporary employment, expand access to basic social infrastructure such as school and health centers, and advance greener projects such as watershed management, which can
13 World Bank (2022a). 14 World Bank (2022a). 15 World Bank (2020c).
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