in Zambia brought back confidence and are set to attract back foreign investors, depending on the country’s debt deal with various creditors. In Botswana, several projects that are underway in solar power, digital connectivity, expansion of diamond mining, and the Khoemacau copper and silver mine, will support growth in the medium term. Growth contraction in 2021 was associated with inflationary effects in non-resource-rich countries. Rwanda and the Seychelles are expected to register the biggest growth moderation in 2022, down by 4.1 and 3.3 percentage points, respectively, followed by Ethiopia (3 percentage points), South Africa (2.8 percentage points), Zimbabwe (2.2 percentage points), Madagascar (1.8 percentage points), and Kenya (1.7 percentage points). The East African Community (EAC) is projected to exhibit the highest growth in the subregion. The EAC is characterized by a diversified economy that is more integrated than other regions in SubSaharan Africa, except WAEMU. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is exerting pressure on inflation, which in turn may derail growth in the near term. Fuel subsidies in Kenya have contributed to stopping fuel prices from rising. This has been successful so far, but it will place pressure on public finance if the war continues. AFW shows strong performance among WAEMU and resource-rich countries.
FIGURE 1.44: GDP Growth Forecasts for West and Central Africa
8
6
Percent
4 2
0 -2
-4
2019
2020
Africa West and Central Non-resource-rich countries in AFW
2021e
2022f
Oil resource-rich excl. Nigeria Oil resource-rich countries in AFW
2023f
Mineral and metal exporters in AFW CEMAC WAEMU
Source: World Bank staff projections. Note: AFW=West and Central Africa; CEMAC=Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa; e = estimate; f = forecast; GDP = gross domestic product; WAEMU= West African Economic and Monetary Union.
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A F R I C A’ S P U L S E
2024f
