Africa's Pulse, No. 25, April 2022

Page 46

recovery owing to weak investment reflecting structural obstacles, such as electricity outages, that continue to hinder economic activity. While dealing with short-term shocks, countries should not lose sight of overcoming structural challenges, which will be necessary to achieve the ambitious twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Some steps are needed to attract investment in human and physical capital, particularly in the fields of digitalization and green technology. The aim is to turn from missing the opportunity of the 2004-14 commodity boom, toward taking advantage of the current surge in prices (annex A).

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Three Largest Economies

In Nigeria, the service sector remains the key driver of the economy.

Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.6 percent (year-over-year) in 2021Q4, a little over the 4.1 percent in the previous period (2021Q3), and at a faster pace than pre-pandemic growth. Real GDP growth is expected to have expanded by 3.6 percent in 2021, 1.2 percentage points above the October 2021 Africa’s Pulse projection, and exceeding population growth of 2.6 percent for the first time since 2015. On the demand side, the economic expansion was supported by private consumption expenditure associated FIGURE 1.27: GDP Growth in Nigeria, by Sector (%) with accommodative 10 monetary and fiscal policy, while private investment 5 continued to grow moderately, reflecting high uncertainties due 0 to security issues. On the supply side, the service -5 sector remains the key driver of the economy -10 (figure 1.27). The industrial sector dragged down the -15 pace of recovery, owing to Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 supply chain disruptions 2020 2021 coupled with the seasonal Agriculture Industry Services decline in crop production. Source: Nigeria National Bureau of Statistics. Industrial production Note: GDP = gross domestic product. was down by 3.1 percent (quarter-over-quarter). Weak production in the oil sector weighed on recovery in 2021. Oil production dropped from 1.57 million barrels per day in 2021Q3 to 1.50 million barrels per day in 2021Q4. The South African economy expanded by 1.2 percent (quarter-over-quarter) in 2021Q4, falling short of recovering the losses in the previous quarter after contracting by 1.5 percent (quarterover-quarter), dragged by the outbreak of the Delta variant of COVID-19 as well as disruption caused by unrest in the Kwazulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces. The economy grew somewhat in

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A F R I C A’ S P U L S E


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2.11 Disaster Risk Financing Framework for Adaptive Social Safety Nets

4min
pages 118-119

2.7 Layering Risk Financing Instruments for Adaptive Social Protection: The Case of Kenya

4min
pages 120-122

2.5 Novissi’s Leapfrogging Delivery Model for Shock-Responsive Social Assistance

7min
pages 109-111

2.6 Growing Domestic Safety Net Commitments: The Case of Senegal

2min
page 116

2.10 Share of Connected and Nonconnected Individuals, by Urban and Rural Location

10min
pages 112-115

2.7 Three Emerging Directions for Strengthening Social Protection in Africa

4min
pages 104-105

across the Income Spectrum

2min
page 106

2.9 Social Protection Delivery Chain

3min
pages 107-108

2.6 Three Emerging Insights from the Social Protection Pandemic Response in Africa

1min
page 101

2.3 COVID-19 Fiscal Policy Responses in Support of Workers and Firms in Africa

5min
pages 99-100

2.2 Sierra Leone’s Emergency Cash Transfers in Response to COVID-19

3min
page 98

The Case of the Democratic Republic of Congo

3min
pages 102-103

Evidence on Impacts of Productive Inclusion Programs in the Sahel

2min
page 93

to Promote Inclusion, Opportunity, and Resilience

2min
page 92

A.4 Public Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa, by Resource Abundance

10min
pages 83-87

2.2 New Poor at the US$1.90-a-Day Poverty Line in 2020

1min
page 91

A.2 Output Deviation from Pre-Pandemic Trend

4min
pages 80-81

1.35 Eurobond Issuances as of December 2022

1min
page 57

1.40 Food Price Index in Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

8min
pages 60-62

1.44 GDP Growth Forecasts for West and Central Africa

31min
pages 66-78

A.1 Natural Resource Revenues Share of GDP, 2004-14

2min
page 79

1.32 Fiscal Balance in Sub-Saharan Africa

5min
pages 53-54

1.31 Evolution of the Current Account

2min
page 52

1.10 Population with at Least One Dose of the COVID-19 Vaccine

8min
pages 27-29

1.18 Food Share in Households’ Budget across Sub-Saharan African Countries

2min
page 38

1.1 Global Shares of the Russian Federation and Ukraine in Food Staples, 2020/21

5min
pages 30-31

1.27 GDP Growth in Nigeria, by Sector

1min
page 46

1.25 Contribution to GDP Growth, Demand Side

2min
page 44

1.26 Output Deviation from Pre-Pandemic Trend

2min
page 45

1.1 The Resurgence of Inflation in Advanced Economies

3min
page 20

1.7 Purchasing Managers’ Composite Index in Sub-Saharan Africa

2min
page 25
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Africa's Pulse, No. 25, April 2022 by World Bank Publications - Issuu