Reality Check

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MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION ECONOMIC UPDATE APRIL 2022

References An, Zidong, Umberto Collodel, and Prakash Loungani. 2021. “When (where and why) Forecasters Get It Wrong?” Mimeo. An, Zidong, Joao Tovar Jalles, and Prakash Loungani. 2018. “How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions.” IMF Working Paper WP/18/29. Al Rasasi, Moayad, and Waheed Banafea. 2015. “The Effects of Oil Shocks on the Saudi Arabian Economy.” The Journal of Energy and Development, 41, 31–45. Arezki, Rabah and Markus Brückner. 2014. “Effects of International Food Price Shocks on Political Institutions in LowIncome Countries: Evidence from an International Food Net-Export Price Index” World Development 61: 142153. Arezki, Rabah, Daniel Lederman, Nelly El-Mallakh, Asif Mohammed Islam, Amani Abou Harb, Ha Ming Nguyen, and Marwane Zouaidi. 2020. How Transparency Can Help the Middle East and North Africa. Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor (April), Washington, DC: World Bank. Beaudry, Paul and Tim Willems. 2022. “On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(1): 38-59. Bachmann, Rudiger, and Steffen Elstner. 2015. “Firm Optimism and Pessimism.” European Economic Review, 79: 297325. Ball, Carolyn. 2009. “What is Transparency?” Public Integrity, 11(4): 293-308. Beaudry, Paul, and Tim Willems. 2022. “On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 14(1): 38-59. Beckman, Steven R. 1992. “The Sources of Forecast Errors.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 19: 237244. Belhaj, Ferid. 2022. "Compounded stress: The impact of the war in Ukraine on the Middle East and North Africa,” Blog on the Middle East Institute website. March 7. Washington DC. https://www.mei.edu/publications/compoundedstress-impact-war-ukraine-middle-east-and-north-africa. Bellemare, Marc. 2015. “Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest”. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 97: 1-21. Blanchard, Olivier J., and Daniel Leigh. 2013. “Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers.” American Economic Review, 103(3): 117-20. Brown, Bryan W. and Shlomo Maital. 1981. “What do Economists Know? An Empirical study of Experts’ Expectations.” Econometrica, 49(2): 491-504. Campbell, S., and Sharpe, S. 2009. “Anchoring Bias in Consensus Forecasts and Its Effect on Market Prices.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 44(2): 369-390. Cevik, Serhan and Katerina Teksoz. 2013. “Hitchhiker’s Guide to Inflation in Libya.” IMF Working Paper 1378. Clements, M. P. and Galvão, A. B. 2017. “Predicting early data revisions to US GDP and the effects of releases on equity markets.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 35(3): 389-406. Devadas, Sharmila, Ibrahim Elbadawi, and Norman V. Loayza. 2021. “Growth in Syria: Loses from the War and Potential Recovery in the Aftermath.” Middle East Development Journal, 13(2): 215-244. https://doi.org/10.1080/17938 120.2021.1930829. Devarajan, Shantayanan. 2013. “Africa's Statistical Tragedy.” Review of Income and Wealth, 59 (Special Issue): 9-15.

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