Resource allocation strategies to minimize need-based gaps

physicians will decline from 5,788 to 4,052 (a 30 percent reduction), there will still be an overall surplus of 30,862 Saudi physicians in 2030 (figure 7.8). in contrast, the need for nurses will increase by3 percent,from 69,399 to 71,135 in 2030, adding to the need-based shortage of 37,430 Saudi nurses (figure 7.9).

RESOURCE ALLOCATION STRATEGIES TO MINIMIZE NEED-BASED GAPS

To inform health workforce planning in Saudi Arabia, this section considers the Saudi public sector financial resources for health workers’ salaries and examines the impact of reallocating resources on reducing need-based demand shortages. Specifically, the effects of reallocating financial resources used for worker salaries across cadres is considered: for cadres with more workers than needed (a surplus), resources going toward salaries can be redirected toward increasing the supply of other cadres that have shortages. for example, resources for surplus workers could be reallocated to training programs for task-sharing between cadres. it is important to note that, for policy makers, reallocated resources do not have to be earmarked for worker compensation; the scenarios presented here using estimated salary amounts are used to illustrate the principle of resource reallocation in a tangible way. The findings illustrate how the public sector in Saudi Arabia can prioritize reducing projected need-based gaps with existing resources.

The different simulated supply and need scenarios are summarized in table 7.2 and the resulting need-based surpluses and shortages are summarized in table 7.3. Among the six scenarios considered, four scenarios yield a needbased surplus of physicians but a need-based shortage of nurses:2

• increase work hours • increase retirement age • increase service coverage by 10 percentage points • Sharing 30 percent of physician tasks with nurses

The effect of reallocating salary support resources from one cadre to another is examined for these four scenarios. To calculate available financial resources for workers’ salaries, average public sector physician and nurse salaries were estimated using the Saudi public sector salary scale (see table 7A.8 for details). The additional numbers of nurses gained from redirecting salary resources from surplus physicians are presented in the columns under public sector financial resources in table 7.3. in these scenarios, reallocating salary resources from surplus physicians to employing more nurses is estimated to substantially reduce the need-based demand shortage of nurses in Saudi Arabia. With the need-based demand surplus of 49,631 physicians but a shortage of 15,900 bachelor and advanced nurses under an eight-hour workday scenario, the public sector could hire an additional 70,783 nurses, fully eliminating the nursing shortage and resulting in a surplus of 54,883 nurses. Similarly, in the scenario with an increased retirement age, reallocating resources from surplus physicians could support 47,549 nurses, and reallocating resources from surplus physicians in the task-sharing scenario could support 44,015 nurses, fully eliminating projected nursing shortages. The only scenario in which reallocating salary resources would not eliminate the need-based nursing shortage is increased service coverage: