Key messages

3

A Need-Based Approach to Projecting Nurses and Physicians Required in Saudi Arabia

TIM BRUCKNER, SAMANTHA GAILEY, MOHAMMED ALLUHIDAN, NABIHA TASHKANDI, TRACY KUO LIN, JENNY X. LIU, MARIAM M. HAMZA, AND HUSSAH ALGHODAIER

KEY MESSAGES

• The need-based model estimates the number of physicians and nurses required to meet the epidemiological need of the population in Saudi Arabia. • Where country-level data are available, the use of country-specific needbased forecasts is encouraged as a complement to labor market demand–based forecasts, and to move away from the reliance on global benchmarks of 2.28 or 4.5 physicians, nurses, and midwives, which are not country specific. • Models were based on core assumptions about the capacity of the Saudi health workforce to diagnose and treat health conditions prioritized by the

Ministry of Health (MOH). Health care workers were then scaled up to cover all health conditions. • The effects of public education campaigns that increase awareness, identification, and treatment of diseases were also considered. • The actual need for full-time equivalent (FTE) physicians and nurses in 2030 could be anywhere between 60,000 and 112,000, depending on the assumptions made. These numbers translate into densities of 1.64 to 3.58 per 1,000 population in 2030. • Overall, Saudi Arabia appears to have no shortage of health workers to address epidemiological needs, when both Saudi and non-Saudi nationals are considered. • There may be an existing need-based shortage, however, if counting only

Saudi nationals, and particularly when diploma nurses, who do not have a college degree in nursing, are excluded. This circumstance is detrimental to

Saudization efforts. • Whether there is a need-based shortage in relation to the projected supply of physicians and nurses in 2030 is explored in chapter 6 of this book.