Conclusion

TABLE 2.4 Simulations of different health workforce planning measures

COMPONENT POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS

Supply • Increasing the yearly numbers of health workers trained in Saudi Arabia • Reducing the number of expatriate workers each year Need • Increasing the target level of service coverage • Changing the basket of services prioritized • Increasing the productivity of health workers Demand • Increasing health care spending • Offering more generous health insurance coverage

Source: Based on SHC and RAS 2020, table 4.

Method used to examine different workforce policy considerations in Saudi Arabia

To illustrate the effect of potential policies on closing health workforce gaps in Saudi Arabia, different assumptions from the baseline model projections were relaxed, reflecting a range of alternative simulated scenarios. All simulations start with baseline model estimates that reflect Saudi health workers in all sectors of the economy (public and private) and their lower productivity relative to international standards. Each policy scenario was considered on its own to enable comparison across policy options. Simulations for policies targeting supply-side changes included increasing productivity relative to work hours, increasing workforce Saudization, and delaying retirement. Alternative scenarios affecting need-based demand included increasing coverage of health services (as a result of behavior change education campaigns, for example) and more task-sharing between physicians and nurses. Using the current public sector wage bill, financial resources that may be available for employing health workers in the public sector were evaluated. Together, these simulations give an indication of the relative magnitude of different health worker policies that may be deployed to close predicted health workforce gaps.

CONCLUSION

This chapter summarizes some of the key methods that can be used to project (1) health labor supply, (2) health labor need, and (3) health labor market demand. resulting aggregated estimates from such projections can provide an indication of the general and relative magnitude of health worker numbers and gaps between supply, need, and demand to inform policy and planning into the future. Although such projections are useful, it is critical to note that projecting health workers into the future involves predictive uncertainty, and resulting estimates should be interpreted only as indicative.

For the analysis on the health workforce in Saudi Arabia, the growth rate approach was used to project supply. A bottom-up need-based approach was used to estimate the health workforce needed epidemiologically to care for the population. And economic models, using total governmental expenditure and MOH expenditure as predictors, were used to project both the overall and public sector–specific health labor market demand for health workers. The selection of these methods was driven largely by the availability of disaggregated data; additional assumptions are needed to address data limitations and further adjust health