Core findings and their implications

insufficient numbers of patient care nurses to meet population health care needs (need-based shortage) and an inability to find enough of these nurses to employ despite available finances (labor market demand–based shortage). Shortages of both Saudi physicians and nurses in the labor market, given anticipated demand, are estimated to persist, assuming no policy change. finally, the demand-based shortage in the public sector will be substantial—estimated to be more than four health workers per 1,000 persons in 2030, or 167,933 physicians and nurses. chapter 7, “The effect of Simulated Policy Scenarios on Saudi Physician and nursing Workforce Gaps in 2030,” projects the health workforce of the future with policy adjustments. Simulation results suggest that labor market demand–based shortages of physicians and nurses will continue even after considering different policies to increase supply, such as increasing work hours, increasing Saudization of the workforce, delaying retirement, and providing continuing education for diploma nurses. The chapter also finds that encouraging continuing education to train diploma nurses (for example, through bridge programs) to perform more advanced patient care tasks may reduce the need-based shortage for bachelor and advanced nurses. The chapter argues that to reduce both the overall and public sector–specific labor market demand shortage of bachelor and advanced nurses, bridge programs will need to be implemented in conjunction with other policies to augment their supply in accordance with demand. Overall, most policy scenarios show that, through 2030, there will be a needbased surplus of Saudi physicians, but a need-based shortage of Saudi bachelor or advanced nurses, suggesting that task-sharing may not be the most appropriate or effective policy intervention for reducing workforce gaps. finally, chapter 8, “Priority Interventions to Address Labor Market Supply and demand challenges in Saudi Arabia,” reflects on some of the key priority interventions for consideration to address potential shortcomings on both the supply side and the labor market demand and financing side. The chapter focuses on interventions for physicians and nurses, and on Saudi nationals only. In line with the findings in the previous chapters, a key policy priority is to increase the number of bachelor and advanced nurses, ensure greater gender balance, and steer a greater proportion of supply toward primary care, rural areas, and the private sector. On the demand side, generating greater efficiencies from existing resources and considering shifting a larger proportion of financing to the general population and the private sector are critical. concomitant interventions are needed to ensure that poorer segments of the population are protected, which is where the majority of public resources should probably be directed.

CORE FINDINGS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

This report reveals the need for planners to focus on a number of priority interventions, particularly if key goals under Vision 2030 are to be achieved. Such goals include reducing the dependence on expatriate workers and increasing the Saudization of the physician and nursing workforce, as well as increasing the focus on primary care and prevention, female labor market participation, growth of the private sector, and achievement of overall greater efficiency in the use of resources and quality of service delivery in the health sector.

The report points to the need to focus on scaling up the number of Saudi bachelor and advanced nurses if dependency on expatriates is to be reduced and needs are to be met. When looking only at Saudi physicians and nurses