CH AP TER 10: LO W-C AR B ON TR ANSITION AND INTER NATIONAL C OOPER ATION
FIGURE 10.4 Share of Fossil Fuel Assets in Total Wealth in the CWON Core Accounts, by Country Group, 2014 and 2018 50
Percent
40 30 20 10
FF MNA
FF ECA
FF SSA
FF LAC Oil
FF SEA Gas
COALEX
CPL-HI
CPL-MI
Coal
Source: World Bank staff calculations, http://www.worldbank.org/cwon/. Note: COALEX = coal exporters; CPL = climate policy leaders; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; FF = fossil fuel(–dependent countries); HI = high-income; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; MI = low- and middle-income; MNA = Middle East and North Africa; SEA = Southeast Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa.
large share of total fossil fuel wealth in only two country groups—coal exporters and middle-income CPLs (mainly China and India). In all the country groups, the relative importance of fossil fuel wealth decreased after the 2014 fossil fuel price shock.
Scenario Analysis to Represent Risk and Uncertainty The reference scenario assumes that countries will implement their unconditional NDCs, followed by four policy scenarios with assumptions about alternative climate and trade policy pathways to low-carbon transition (table 10.2). Climate policies are represented by economywide carbon taxes (shadow carbon prices) with rates calibrated to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement. The cumulative gross emissions of CO2 in the modeling period calculated by the model are shown in the last column of table 10.2. They are gross, because they do not include unproven climate mitigation methods, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) on fuel combustion installations, CO2 removal (CDR) methods (so-called negative emissions), or geoengineering. Non-CO2 gasses are also not included. After correcting for the impacts of these assumptions, the cumulative emissions produced by the core bundle of policy scenarios (numbers 1, 2, and 3 in table 10.2) are in line with the carbon budget used in the 2°C-consistent IPCC mitigation pathways and cooperative scenario number 4, even for some 1.5°C-consistent IPCC mitigation pathways.
20 18
20 14
20 18
20 14
20 18
20 14
20 18
20 14
20 18
20 14
20 18
20 14
20 18
20 14
20 18
20 14
0
235
