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Current and Future Uruguayan Demographics
A more disaggregated analysis utilizing the population pyramids from three years (2000, 2050, and 2100) reveals this profound transformation. The pyramid’s base narrows, evening out the relative weight of the different age groups (and as such the pyramid becomes more rectangular) and eventually its shape even partially inverts, becoming wider at the age ranges corresponding to older adults and diminishing the relative weight of the younger age groups (figure 2.5). This effect is a consequence of two factors. First, the prolonged period of low fertility (which narrows the base of the pyramid and produces generations that are the same size instead of larger and larger generations, as was the case prior to the demographic transition). Second, the improvement in mortality evident in increasing life expectancy and over time, raises the pyramid’s tip. In the forecasts used, the assumption
Figure 2.5 Population by Age, 2000, 2050, and 2100 b. 2050 100+
90
90
80
80
70
70
60
60 Age
Age
a. 2000 100+
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
0 30
20
10
0
10
20
30
30
20
10
c. 2100 100+ 90 80 70 60 Age
10
Population (thousands)
Population (thousands)
50 40 30 20 10 0
0
25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Population (thousands) Women
Men
Source: Elaboration based on United Nations 2014.
Demographic Change in Uruguay • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0844-9
20
30