Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor

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CLIMATE CHANGE, DISASTER RISK, AND THE URBAN POOR

are cost-effective. One consideration not fully reflected in this approach is the social aspect or community linkages associated with many adaptation measures. Adaptation efforts, such as early-warning systems, preservation and protection of vulnerable lands, and adherence to land-use plans, generally require “socialization” for effective implementation. A study on climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness in coastal cities of North Africa calculates estimated costs for infrastructure works related to resilience and action plans for Tunis, Tunisia, and Casablanca, Morocco (World Bank 2011). The economic efficiency of investments was then captured through a benefit/cost ratio (B/C), comparing discounted values over time to avoided damages against implementation costs. Figure 4.2 shows a comparison of B/C for different investments for Tunis and Casablanca. Efficiency is overall high in Casablanca, with early-warning systems having the highest benefits. Further estimating the costs of adaptation specifically for the urban poor is similarly difficult for many of the same reasons listed above. Costs for slum improvements are very location specific, and even within cities, the unit costs can vary substantially. However, rough estimates prepared by the UN Millennium Project (2005) put the average unit cost of slum upgrading at around US$670 per capita. This includes investment in land titling, access to water, sanitation and sewage treatment, social investments in education and health, and home improvements. This cost is comparable to estimates for a bundle of infrastructure services to Africa’s medium-size cities, US$663 per capita, and for

Figure 4.2 Benefit-Cost Ratio by Risk Category for Tunis and Casablanca 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Early warning system

Coastal management

Anti-flood parcel measures Tunis

Anti-flood collective measures*

Anti-seismic measures

Casablanca

Source: World Bank (2011). *Anti-flood collective measures include urban drainage and integrated water-management planning.

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Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor

Published on Apr 26, 2012

World Bank Publications

Poor people living in slums are at particularly high risk from the impacts of climate change and natural hazards. They live on the most vulnerable lands within cities, typically areas that are deemed undesirable by others and are thus affordable. Residents are exposed to the impacts of landslides, sea-level rise, flooding, and other hazards. Exposure to risk is exacerbated by overcrowded living conditions, lack of adequate infrastructure and services, unsafe housing, inadequate nutrition, and poor health. These conditions can turn a natural hazard or change in climate into a disaster, and result in the loss of basic services, damage or destruction to homes, loss of livelihoods, malnutrition, disease, disability, and loss of life.