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Water Security for Central Kosovo The Kosovo - IbĂŤr River Basin and IbĂŤr Lepenc Water System

Water resources, water demands, Water balance assessment, And programme of measures

MARCH 2011 Edited March 2012

.

DOCUMENT LEAD SHEET

Client Project Number: 7156058 SCE Project Number: 10292 Document Number: 2

Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO Reports: Water Resources, Water demands, Water balance assessment and Programme of measures Issue

Date

Author

Collaborators -

K. ZENA N. PIRVA

C. SCHMANDT F. BAUDRY - C. MASCRE -

A

25/03/2011

Reviewer

-

F. PINTUS

-

B. PICON A. AZIZI

G. DENIGOT C. VALLET

WORLD BANK Approver

Reasons for issue

The team thanks all the partners in Kosovo who provided help to collect data in the field for the canal survey as well those who shared information for this study.

We hope that this assessment will provide opportunities to improve water security in Central Kosovo.

This Main Report and its additional volume on the WEAP Model Activities are the results of the work of the Consultant Team led by F. Baudry and G.Denigot, in cooperation with experts and government officials at the Water Directorate, Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, the IbĂŤr-Lepenc Canal Water Company, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, the Government Water Task Force, the Lignite Power Technical Assistance Project, and several other Ministerial and other agencies. The support and information of several donor agencies are gratefully acknowledged, notably of the Swiss Cooperation Office Kosovo, the Kreditanstalt fĂźr Wiederaufbau, and the European Commission Liaison Office to Kosovo. The World Bank team that supervised and led this initiative comprised Guy Alaerts, Michael Jacobsen and Krenar Bujupi.

Disclaimer The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the Consultant and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work.

The boundaries, colours, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS

4

ACRONYMS

11

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

12

A- Context and Objectives

12

B- Integrated River Basin Planning and Water Balance

13

C- Bulk Water Supply Vulnerability and Water Security in Central Kosovo

14

D- Priority Measures and Investments

22

E- Conclusion

23

PART I CONTEXT, CONCEPT 1 TOOLS

I.

24

REPORT SCOPE & PROJECT AREA

24

II. COMMON UNDERSTANDING: “ MOVING TOWARDS WATER SECURITY IN CENTRAL KOSOVO “

25

II.1.

Concept of Water security for this study

25

II.2.

Preliminary objectives for Water Security

25

III. INFLUENCE ON WATERS SECURITY OF THE CHANGING SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT IN CENTRAL KOSOVO

26

III.1.

Issues regarding the Ibër Lepenc Canal

26

III.2.

Infrastructure Development

27

III.3.

Energy and water

29

III.4.

International context

31

IV. CONCEPTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE ISSUES

32

IV.1.

Schematic representation of the issues

32

IV.2.

Use of WEAP: A River Basin Management Modeling Tool

33

WEAP model main features Set up of a WEAP model for the Ibër River Basin in Kosovo and Montenegro

33 34

AB-

V. SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND DATA LIMITATION PART II

IBËR RIVER BASIN IN KOSOVO & TRANSBOUNDARIES WATERS

I.1. Geographical area - international waters AB-

Project Area Central Kosovo area Water Supply

I.2. Ibër transboundary waters and Danube river basin

37 40 40 40 42

45

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PART III WATER BODIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL OBJECTIVES ACHIEVEMENT

51

I.1. Brief overview of European Water Directives

51

I.2. Delineation and characterisation of Water Bodies

52

ABC-

Eco regions and surface water body type Delineation and characterization of Surface Water Bodies Delineation and characterization of Groundwater Bodies

ABCD-

Impact on flow regime of abstraction or regulation Description of morphological alteration Impact of Land use patterns & population densities Significant point and diffuse pollution sources

ABC-

Quantity and quality of data available Evaluation of the Status of Surface water Status of the Groundwater

I.3. Pressure & Impact On Water Bodies

I.4. Resulting Ecological and chemical status of surface water bodies

PART IV TOWARD WATER SECURITY IN CENTRAL KOSOVO 2010-2035 I.1. Scope of the analysis - Key Indicators ABC-

Scope of the Analysis – Water Security Objectives Environmental flow - Key Water uses within Ibër River Basin Methodology - Scenarios Building

52 53 56

64 64 65 66 68

74 74 75 76

78 78 78 79 80

I.2. Period considered and planned actions

82

I.3. Supply Side: Hydrology, Climate & Water Resources

83

ABCD-

Hydro- meteorological information Precipitation, Temperature, Evaporation Analysis of runoff and basin Yield Climate change possible impact

AB-

The 2010 Water supply Infrastructure Resources available for use – quality issues– Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

ABCD-

Demand of urban Water needs and communities Water supply Demand for Agriculture Demand for Power Production Demand of Key industries

AB-

Baseline Scenario - Bulk Water Balance & Security Vulnerabilities Bulk water balance under baseline scenario

I.4. Water supply infrastructure

I.5. DEMAND OF THE KEY WATER USES

I.6. BASELINE SCENARIO

I.7. BUILDING SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE

AJustification of range of values for the various parameters used in scenario BFactors of Uncertainties CDemand Side Parameters DSupply Side Parameters ESelection of Series of Scenarios F- Successive scenarios by varying these factors

I.8. RESULTS OF THE SCENARIOS – BULK WATER BALANCE UNDER FUTURE CONDITIONS

83 86 90 92

94 94 101

102

102 106 108 109

110

110 113

123

123 123 124 136 139 139

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AB-

Impact of selected parameters on the water demand Hot spots Identification

I.9. CONCLUSIONS PART V

II.

DRAFT PROGRAM OF MEASURES TOWARDS WATER SECURITY

141 142

151

152

I.1. Terms of reference

152

I.2. Schematic presentation of ToR

153

PROCESS OF MEASURE IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT

154

II.1.

Steps for measureS identification and assessment

154

II.2.

methods for measure assessment and visualization

155

II.3.

Criteria for the assessment of measures

156

II.4.

Cost Benefit Analysis

159

AOverview BBackground CAssumptions – General Methodology DAssumptions – Costs EAssumptions – Benefits F- Steps to neutralize Bias

III. PROJECTS AND MEASURES IDENTIFIED III.1.

159 159 160 160 160 162

163

Quantitative Assessment of water security

163

AB-

Assessment of the water shortage and water saving needs Operational shortcomings

Vulnerabilities of Water Security

163 163

163

ABCD-

Pressure on Water Resource Pollution pressure on drinking water resources the conveyance system needs rehabilitation and priority allocation diversification and allocation of water resource

163 164 165 166

III.2.

IV. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT AND MEASURES IV.1.

Project 1 - protection of drinking water resources of reservoirs

AProject title BBeneficiary institutions CSituation Analysis DLogical Framework Matrix ECapital expenditures & Operating expenses F- BENEFITS - Protection of drinking water resource GStakeholder Analysis HTarget group – beneficiaries I- Implementation arrangements

IV.2.

PROJECT 2: Groundwater knowledge and protection

AProject title: BBeneficiary institutions CSituation Analysis DLogical framework matrix EStakeholder Analysis F- Target group – beneficiaries

168 168 168 168 168 170 172 174 177 177 177

178

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G-

IV.3.

Canal

Implementation arrangements

Project 3: Provision of sufficient water of good quality through the Ibër Lepenc 184

AProject title: BBeneficiary institutions CSituation Analysis DLogical framework matrix EStakeholder Analysis F- Target group – beneficiaries

IV.4.

Study of options for providing better water security in case of emergency

AProject title: BBeneficiary institutions CSituation Analysis DLogical framework matrix EStakeholder Analysis F- Target group – beneficiaries

V. INVESTMENT PRIORITIES PART VI ANNEXES

183

184 184 184 186 196 196

197

197 197 197 204 207 207

208 209

I.

ANNEX 1: INFORMATION SOURCES

209

II.

ANNEX 2: WEAP ACTIVITIES REPORT

211

III. ANNEX III – DETAIL OF COSTS OF BENEFITS FOR THE 4 PROJECT/MEASURES

211

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LIST OF FIGURES, MAPS & TABLES Figure 1: Ibër "River Basin" in Kosovo 15 Figure 2: WEAP graphic interface representing the resource and demand sites 16 Figure 3: Gazivoda reservoir water balance (baseline year 2010) 17 Figure 4: Batllava reservoir water balance (baseline year 2010) 17 Figure 5: Badovc reservoir water balance (baseline year 2010) 18 Figure 6: Gazivoda water balance in 2035 assuming increased demand from all sectors and a dry year condition (under historical meteorological conditions without climate change) 20 Figure 7: Type of losses and illegal connections in Ibër Lepenc canal (Consultant survey August 2010) 27 Figure 8: Bulk water conveyance and Hydro-electricity of the Gazivoda, its buffer reservoir and the gate of IL canal 30 Figure 10: WEAP model modules 33 Figure 11: WEAP hydrography and water system architecture of the Ibër Basin (SCE/OIEau 2010) 35 Figure 12: WEAP scheme of the Ibër Lepenc canal water conveyance and of Prishtina & Mitrovica regions bulk water supply 36 Figure 13: Principle for delineation of Water Bodies Error! Bookmark not defined.

Figure 14: Criteria for delineation of the Water Bodies in Kosovo Error! Bookmark not defined.

Figure 15: Schematic Geological Cross-Section across Central Kosovo (Source ICMM) 58 Figure 16: Environmental flow and sectors using water 79 Figure 17: Infrastructure to capture water in the Ibër River Basin 95 Figure 18: Schematic representation of the Gazivoda, secondary reservoir, hydropower generation and bulk water use along the IL main canal (source BCEOM - Cowi study 2008 from ILE and consultant) 98 Figure 19: WEAP model schematic mapping of the main uses along the IL canal (Source SCE/OIEau) 99 Figure 20: Crops with a good potential of development in Kosovo (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy – Feb 2010) 133 Figure 21: Schematic presentation of the objectives of the program of measure as per ToR 153 Figure 22: presentation of the various instruments for measures relevance assessment 155 Figure 23: risk of rupture of conveyance, land slide, solid waste disturbing the flow of water in the IL canal (Consultant‘s survey August 2010) 167 Figure 24: Concept of interconnection between systems in the Ibër River Basin 198 Figure 25: Options for diversifying the sources and routes used for drinking water supply 199 Map 1: Ibër River Basin up to Serbian Border (Source SCE/OIEau 2010) 40 Map 2: Hydrological zones and tributaries of the Ibër River Basin up to the Serbian Border.

41 Map 3: Ibër River Basin, the Regional Water companies‘ area and Kosovo Municipalities 42 Map 4: River basins in Kosovo –and Relief in Kosovo 45 Map 5: Ibër River Basin inside the Danube River Basin and riparian countries 46 Map 6: Danube River basin – subunits and WISE reporting monitoring point for WFD 48 Map 7: Eco-region as per the European Water Framework Directive 52 Map 8: Delineation of Surface Water Bodies (Source: Water Department and SCE/OIEau consortium 2010) 55 Map 9: Simplified hydrogeology in the Ibër River Basin 59 Map 10: Proposed Ground Water Bodies in the Ibër River Basin in Kosovo 60 Map 11: Localization of the main reservoirs, rivers and uptake of water for uses 64 Map 12: Land use of the Ibër basin (Corine Land cover) 66 Map 13: Land use map of the Ibër River Basin in Kosovo 69 Map 14: Hot spots for water quality in Ibër River Basin in Kosovo 70 Map 15: Simplified Hydrogeology in Ibër Basin, springs and boreholes (source ICMM-WD) 77 Map 16: Hydrometrical network for the Ibër River Basin in Montenegro and Kosovo 83 Map 17: Rainfall stations of the Institute of Hydrometeorology of Kosovo 86 Map 18: Description of the precipitation in the Ibër River Basin in Kosovo 86 Map 19: Range of temperature and altitude in Kosovo (Source IKMIK and USAID Kosovo Agricultural Opportunities Strategy) 87

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Map 20: Hydrological zones for analysis of the runoff and basin yield in Ibër River Basin in Kosovo and Montenegro 90 Map 21: Extension of the Regional Water Companies (RWC) and Municipalities in Ibër River Basin and in Kosovo.

103 Map 24: Precipitation distribution and location of sites of water storages 201 Map 25: Catchment of a possible reservoir in the Drenas River Basin Versant 202 Table 1: WEAP Results Analysis 21 Table 2: Data collection records 37 Table 3: Tributaries of the Ibër River and surface of their river basin 41 Table 4: List and main characteristics of the Municipalities (Source OSCE Municipalities profile 2007 to 2009) 43 Table 5: Main characteristics of sub-basins in Ibër River Basin which are relevant for Water Body delineation 53 Table 6: Table of the Surface Water Bodies 54 Table 7: Characteristics of proposed Ground Water Bodies in the Ibër Basin 61 Table 8: Land use by Corine land cover category in the upper Ibër river basin.

66 Table 9: Polluted soil and point source of industrial pollution (Source KEPA) 71 Table 10: Level of contamination of sediments in the Ibër River in Mitrovica - Source: Ground water pollution in Mitrovica and surroundings 72 Table 11: Chemical analyses in the Ibër River Mitrovica- station Kelmend - from 2003 to 2005 (Source university of Mitrovica) 75 Table 12: Description of the Timeline for scenarios building 82 Table 13: List of the hydrometrical stations in the Ibër River Basin up to the Border with Serbia (Source IHMK 2010) 84 Table 14: Availability of the Hydrological regarding the daily measurement of the water level in the rivers of the upper Ibër River Basin 85 Table 15: Mean temperature in the main towns of the Ibër River Basin 88 Table 16: Evaporation in several stations in Prishtina (Source 1985 Water Master Plan) 88 Table 17: Connected and non connected population in Ibër River Basin (Source: Report on the performance for 2008 from the water and waste regulatory office, Prishtina and Mitrovica Water Companies Directors) 103 Table 18: Key indicators of the Water supply production for the Prishtina and Mitrovica RWC (Source: the report WYG International on Prishtina regional water supply – 2009) 104 Table 19: Households demand - regional company public networks (set of assumptions 1) 105 Table 20: Irrigation scheme and irrigated area 107 Table 21: Key parameters for bulk water used for irrigation: Total gross water demand for irrigated agriculture in Ibër basin in 2010 (Source SCE/OIEau IL) 107 Table 22: Water demand for industry in 2010 109 Table 23: Demand parameters and Minimum Biological flow for the baseline scenarios (SCE/OIEau 2010) 111 Table 24: First scenarios of population growth 125 Table 25: Second scenarios of population growth 125 Table 26: Possible evolution of the average daily water consumption due to tariff policy 127 Table 27: Evolution of non-revenue water level – Scenario A 128 Table 28: Evolution of non-revenue water level – Scenario B 129 Table 29: Domestic water demand under 3 scenarios 129 Table 30: Evolution of the demand from the industry 130 Table 31: Total gross water demand for irrigated agriculture in Ibër basin in 2035 (water saving scenario) 133 Table 32: Water Consumption for Industry 140 Table 33: Impact of different parameters on the Water Demand from Ibër River Basin 141 Table 34: Water missing in Gazivoda system – System 1 145 Table 35: WEAP Results Analysis 150 Table 36: Water Security Criteria used to prioritize the Program of Measures 158 Table 38: Benefits for Protection of drinking water resources 175 Table 40: Cost and benefits for canal protection 193 Table 42: Characteristic of possible water storages in Ibër River basin 200

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Graph 1: Land use in the upper Ibër river basin 67 Graph 2: Mean temperature in the main towns of the Ibër River Basin 88 Graph 3: Monthly mean evaporation in the Gazivoda Reservoir 89 Graph 4: Inter-annual variation of mean annual flow at Ribariç station (Ibër) 1948-1978 91 Graph 5: Frequency - debit curve for the annual flow for the period 1948 to 1978 91 Graph 6: Mean monthly flow in the Ribariç and Prelez stations (period 1948 to 1978) 92 Graph 7: Monthly flow at Ribariç station for dry, wet and medium year during 92 Graph 8: Modelling Spatial Scale and Uncertainty 93 Graph 9: Box with the variation of hydrological parameters due to climate change for 2030-2039 94 Graph 10: Variations of the water inflow in Gazivoda reservoir (Source: 1985 Water Master Plan – IL Company)96 Graph 11: Variations of inflow in the Batllava reservoir (Source 1985 Water Master plan) 100 Graph 12: Variations of inflow in the Badovc reservoir (Source 1985 Water Master plan) 100 Graph 13: WEAP results inflow and outflow of the Gazivoda reservoir 113 Graph 14: Gazivoda Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 114 Graph 15: Gazivoda Water Balance 2010 – cumulated values (mil mc) 114 Graph 16: WEAP results inflows and outflow of Batllava Reservoir for 2010 baseline scenario 116 Graph 17: Batllava Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 117 Graph 18: Batllava Water Balance 2010 – cumulated values (mil mc) 117 Graph 19: WEAP results inflows and outflow of Badovc Reservoir for 2010 baseline scenario 119 Graph 20: Badovc Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 120 Graph 21: Badovc Water Balance 2010 – cumulated values (mil mc) 120 Graph 22: Kuzmin Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 121 Graph 23: Kuzmin Water Balance 2010 – cumulated values (mil mc) 121 Graph 24: Lypjan Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 121 Graph 25: Lypjan Water Balance 2010 – cumulated values (mil mc) 121 Graph 26: Shtime Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 122 Graph 27: Shtime Water Balance 2010 – cumulated values (mil mc) 122 Graph 28: Evolution of export of agricultural commodities from Kosovo (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy – Feb 2010) 131 Graph 29: Kosovo price for agricultural commodities compared to EU FOB Origin Price (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy – Feb 2010) 132 Graph 30: Comparison between the level of agricultural commodities export in various European countries (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy – Feb 2010) 132 Graph 31: Box for selection of value for parameters impact by the climate change (World Bank document). 138 Graph 32: Water Situation in IL Channel, 2035, dry year period 143 Graph 33: Water Situation in IL Channel, 2035, very dry year period 144 Graph 34: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Population Scenario – 2020 145 Graph 35: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Population Scenario – 2035 146 Graph 36: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Dry year Scenario – 2020 146 Graph 37: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Dry year Scenario – 2035 147 Graph 38: Unmet demand in Batllava system – System 2 – Dry year Scenario – 2035 147 Graph 39: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Very dry year Scenario – 2020 148 Graph 40: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Very dry year Scenario – 2035 148 Graph 41: Unmet demand in Batllava system – System 2 – Very dry year Scenario – 2035 149 Graph 42: value of criteria for collection 173 Graph 43: value of criteria for protection of drinking water resource 174 Graph 46: cost benefit Analysis – Net Present Value for the measure/project 3 improvement of Ibër-Lepenc Canal 189 Graph 47: Localisation and type of conveyance system to rehabilitate to save water (WEAP model SCE/OIEau 2010) 191 Graph 48: Leakage protection - Total Score for criteria 192 Graph 49: Canal Protection - Total score for criteria 193 Graph 51: Total score for criteria equipment for water measurement and regulation 195 Graph 52: Cost Benefit Analysis- Measure/Project 4 – Study of Water Security Contingencies 206

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ACRONYMS CBA

Cost Benefit Analysis

EC

European Communities

ECLO

European Liaison Office in Kosovo

EU

European Union

KEPA

Kosovo Environment Protection Agency

GIS

Geographical Information System

GWB

Ground Water Body

ICMM

Independent Commission for Mines and Minerals

ICPDR

International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River

IHMK

Institute of Hydrometeorology of Kosovo

ILC

Ibër Lepenc Canal

OIEau

Office International de l‘Eau

RB

River Basin

RBD

River Basin District

RDM

Robust Decision Making

RWC

Regional Water Company

WBo

Water Body

WB

World Bank

WEAP

Water Evaluation and Planning System

WFD

Water Framework Directive

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Executive Summary A- Context and Objectives 1.

Kosovo is a small and young state that gained an interim UN-administered status in the wake of the Dayton Peace Accord only in 1999; it declared independence in 2008. Compared to neighbouring countries, it is still lacking in its basic infrastructure and its administrative and technical skills. In addition, with the onset of the War in Yugoslavia in 1992 most investment and normal maintenance came to a standstill. Much of the publicly owned infrastructure fell into disrepair or was vandalized, but private investments led to a construction boom which, however, is leading to many environmental problems. The government is committed to reconstruction and to the development of a peaceful state. It also intends to align with EU policies 2.

Lying in the southern Balkans, Kosovo is landlocked. While its mountainous western and southern fringes are plentiful in water, its central/northern high-lying plateau, that covers about half of the country's territory, is short of water featuring only a few minor rivers and brooks. Most rivers and wells are polluted, or at serious risk. Yet, it is precisely this area that holds the country's largest population share, including its capital Prishtina, as well as most of the mining activities, substantial agriculture, and most of its industry. This area also contains the industrial growth area along the Durrës-Prishtina-Belgrade corridor, now under development.

Importantly, the country's two main (thermal) power plants are also located near Prishtina next to large lignite deposits; the World Bank is assisting with the development of a privately-financed third, modern facility ("New Kosovo"), decommissioning of the oldest plant ("Kosovo A") and refurbishing of the second oldest ("Kosovo B").

This economic heart of the country depends for its water mostly on the Ibër-Lepenc canal that conveys water from the large Gazivoda reservoir in the north, built in the late 1970s. The canal is about 50 km long and has a nominal capacity at its inlet of more than 10m3/sec but with losses of above 50% its delivery capacity declines along its run. The reservoir lies partly in Serbia, but its dam and the canal lie inside Kosovo albeit in the region that is dominated by communities of Serbian ethnicity. Two other much smaller reservoirs east of Prishtina (Batllava and Badovc) have thus far provided water for Prishtina municipality and other towns and local industry.

3.

Groundwater resources have not been researched well in Kosovo. In the alluvial plain of the Sidnica river affluent of the Ibër River the groundwater is abundant but very vulnerable to local pollution. Still, in many villages on the central/northern plateau groundwater is used for household consumption.

4.

The agricultural sector is in general still poorly organized in this part of Kosovo. Some irrigation infrastructure is still functioning but on a small scale at around 1000 ha per year. The Ibër-Lepenc Canal Company offers irrigation contracts to farmers at a low price for the irrigation periods. Most of the irrigated area is devoted to potato cultivation, which is a tradition in the Sidnica plain. The town centres are provided with piped water, but connection rates are generally low except in Prishtina, and physical losses are still substantial.

Donors, such as the Swiss cooperation, USAID, KfW, UNDP and the EU are very active in the improvement and expansion of water supply and drainage services, notably inside the Prishtina area and recent measures taken by the Prishtina Regional Water Company to reduce losses and improve the bill payment rate proved to be efficient last year. Sewerage is mostly lacking and only one town has an operational wastewater treatment plant.

5.

This study responds to the request by the Government to contribute to the updating of the Water Strategy and Plan; offer direction for the new sector policy; identify practical, priority investments; and by doing so help alignment with the EU acquis and its policies. Because of the limited budget, and the numerous ongoing donor activities, care was taken to target the study on a subject that would be strategically significant and where the Bank would add value. Most donors support studies and investment in water supply and some wastewater management and drainage, as well as catchment management. Few donor efforts thus far have addressed the more complicated water resources management issues covering all water uses because of its page 12/211

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cross-sectoral nature and longer-term institutional implications. Central (and northern) Kosovo was selected for the study as it is the area of most concern because 80% of the economic value is located there, including the capital, whilst it likely will be facing the most constrained and vulnerable water resources and supply situation over the next decade due to population and economic pressures. Also, the Bank is supporting there other major activities that would benefit from this study, notably the "New Kosovo" Lignite Power Plant that will depend on secure 24 hour water supply for cooling.

6.

Thus, the study has the specific objectives to: (i) assist the government to improve its river basin planning and management by providing (for demonstration purposes) a replicable tool/simulation model for integrated river basin planning and management; and (ii) support the government in its identification of priority measures of structural and non-structural nature to help strengthen the water resources sector performance.

The source(s) for the financing of the identified projects would need to be identified further by the Government as the World Bank has not committed to involvement in the sector.

7.

The economy and the towns of central Kosovo have an insecure water future. As mentioned, the IbërLepenc canal is a man-made artificial lifeline for supplying central Kosovo continuously with water. The study has analyzed three key premises: (i) bulk water supply in central Kosovo may become inadequate to satisfy growing demand; (ii) climate change is likely to exacerbate the shortfall in supply; and (iii) the available infrastructure to collect and transport this bulk water is in poor condition and vulnerable due to the absence of maintenance and modernization over the past two decades. Recently repairs of the major leakages were carried out by the Ibër-Lepenc Canal Company. The Ibër-Lepenc canal in particular is operational but increasingly vulnerable to acute disruption by notably landslides, leakages and, with politics not fully settled yet, other kinds of disruption. It may not be prepared to keep providing reliable and expanding high-quality water service in the longer-run given the pollution pressures, and growing uncertainty due to variability in demand and climate. The study would then propose realistic "no-regret" measures specifically geared to increase supply reliability and resilience to the likely demand variability in the main existing and future demand nodes, notably the "New Kosovo" power plant and the refurbished Kosovo B plant; the municipal and industrial water supply in and near Prishtina as well as Mitrovice, Vushstrij and several other towns on the plateau; and irrigation, now still near zero demand but expected to rise soon. The study would take an integrated approach—treating the plateau as a coherent hydrological unit comprising several water sources (the Gazivoda and the two other reservoirs, as well as groundwater) and seek ways to reduce sources of security risks, and enhance the reliability of expanded bulk water supply, at minimum cost.

B- Integrated River Basin Planning and Water Balance 8.

For its integrated river basin planning and water balance analysis, the study has utilized the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) simulation model of which the software is not proprietary and does not require sophisticated data collection. The Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning is familiar with WEAP. The study has now provided a database and a baseline for the Ibër catchment and central Kosovo area. The study has also adopted the experience from an earlier EU-funded study on the Drini river basin; taken together, the two studies have now developed the models for the largest and most significant river basins in Kosovo. This study applied a methodology especially for surface water and groundwater aquifer delineation that is compliant with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). While the limited scope of this study obviously cannot provide a full river basin management plan which meets the detailed requirements of the WFD, it provides a compliant methodology and framework that can be replicated for more in-depth analysis on these two basins or to cover

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the other basins. However, no primary data collection has been carried out, but existing yet very scattered data compiled and assessed for consistency and reliability.

9.

The planning has notably taken into account the environmental flow requirements and the transboundary issues, as the water in the Ibër-Lepenc canal essentially is abstracted from the Ibër river which, downstream from the reservoir and after its use in Kosovo, returns to Serbia and flows into the Morava and from there the Danube. Environmental flow requirements have been estimated in a simple fashion and taken "off the top" when calculating water balances. The Ibër river rises in Montenegro and passes through Serbia, and, beyond the Gazivoda reservoir and its Ibër-Lepenc canal in Kosovo, returns to Serbia. The issues related to the transboundary nature have been discussed. The requirements for prior notification of riparian countries on significant investments on the river are complicated since Serbia and other downstream riparians on the Ibër-Morava-Danube system do not recognize the Government of Kosovo. Specific legal advice will be needed for any measure which requires notification. However, precedents exist in the postYugoslavia areas where the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube (and in other but similar cases, the International Sava Commission), have acted as facilitating intermediaries.

C- Bulk Water Supply Vulnerability and Water Security in Central Kosovo 10. Taking the central Kosovo region as one hydrological and economic unit--the "Ibër basin"—three rivers or sub-basins can be distinguished, each with its reservoir, which are connected hydrologically and economically.

The main tributaries and reservoirs are illustrated in figure 1. The Ibër-Lepenc canal "sub- basin" draws its water from the Gazivoda reservoir. The canal runs south from the Gazivoda dam parallel to the Sitnica river, which in turn is a tributary to the downstream part of the Ibër and carries central Kosovo's polluted return flows back to Serbia. The canal specifically supplies for the moment water to the hydropower plant (35 MW), to the towns of Mitrovice, Vushtrij, and some smaller neighbouring towns as well as to the two thermal power plants, the industrial development zone along the Durrës-Prishtina--Belgrade corridor, and some irrigation. Over the next few years, however, the canal will also supply bulk water for Prishtina municipality (starting in 2013), the third thermal power plant New Kosovo (after 2014), as well as the expected substantial expansion of irrigated areas.

Thus, this sub-basin river encompasses the main towns and main economic activities of Kosovo.

11. The Liap and Gracaniqa sub-basins feature the Batllava and Badovc reservoirs, respectively, and currently both supply the Prishtina Regional Water Company with water for the population of Prishtina and smaller communities in the capital's neighbourhood. This situation is unlikely to change in the future as the maximum supply capacity of these catchments has been reached and the reservoirs are likely to rather experience capacity reduction in the future due to expanding, unregulated land use and increasing pollution pressure.

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Figure 1: The Ibër "river basin" in Central and North Kosovo 12.

The concern on water security in the Ibër basin refers to three dimensions: • •

•

The current capability of the water resource and reservoir infrastructure to provide a reliable supply of water to meet all demands, under the current conditions (2010) ; The capability of the water resource and reservoir infrastructure to provide reliable supply of water over the next decades, by 2020 and 2035, under dry-year and very dry year conditions taking into account likely scenarios of climate change but also increases in population, agriculture and industrial activity; and The capability of the physical infrastructure in the form of the reservoirs and the water conveyance systems to do so in a reliable fashion.

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Figure 2: The WEAP graphic interface representing the resource and demand sites as modelled 13. Bulk water security as it is considered in this study, is not limited to the question of absolute water resource scarcity. Rather, it refers to the overall vulnerability and the (lack of) reliability and robustness of the natural and the physical water supply systems under different scenarios of simultaneously decreasing supply capacity and growing demand. Under current annual-average conditions (for the baseline year 2010) the two storage facilities in the basin Gazivoda and Batllava have sufficient water supply capability to meet demand throughout the year. The WEAP simulation model was applied to study the discrepancy in the quantities between water supply and demand, using the resource and demand nodes as described in figure 2. The simulation results are presented in figures 3, 4 and 5, for each of the three reservoirs. The water balance (supply and demand) is presented each time in accumulative fashion over the year. A (yellow) line denotes a risk

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indicator: it is the cumulative inflow in a very dry year, which is taken here at a representative 50% of the baseline year inflow. The Gazivoda reservoir has ample reserve capacity, however, it should be noted that the water demand as per 2010 is still severely depressed in all sectors, and will over the next 5-10 years see a marked increase, that at this stage is not possible to define more precisely. Also, the Ibër-Lepenc canal is for the moment sometimes unable to realize this potential as it is constrained in its carrying capacity. The Batllava reservoir similarly has still some reserve capacity available; however, under very dry year condition a clear risk exists that the water level in the reservoir will be falling well below its normal level (as suggested qualitatively by the yellow line on the figure which represents a 50% lower-than-average inflow); two dry years in succession would lead to emergency situations. In addition, it is the catchment that is most vulnerable to pressures due to changes in land use and increasing pollution. The Badovc reservoir under current conditions does not provide sufficient water resources to meet the demand from 35% of Prishtina city even under average precipitation conditions (red columns—demand—systematically far exceeding the blue columns of the inflow).

Figure 3: Gazivoda reservoir water balance (for baseline year 2010)

Figure 4: Batllava reservoir water balance (for baseline year 2010)

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Figure 5: Badovc reservoir water balance (for baseline year 2010) 14. Thus, the Ibër basin overall can be expected to have sufficient water availability at most key water demand nodes over the whole year under current conditions. However, in the near future and under assumptions of unfavourable climate change and strong increases in urban, industrial and agricultural demand for water, the WEAP scenario shows that the water resources will not balance the demand over a year. The demand structure may gradually shift, and the reliability in the medium term of the Batllava and especially local groundwater is likely to decrease.

15. The Badovc reservoir is under current conditions already in a critical situation and needs to be carefully reviewed further. Any demand growth directed at Badovc reservoir is likely to shift to the Gazivoda source.

16. The study assessed the structural integrity and constructive quality of the bulk water conveyance systems, in particular the Ibër-Lepenc canal. This infrastructure needs rehabilitation, as well as protection against accidental blockages, pollution and other causes of disruption. Water losses are significant in the current conveyance systems, and some hot spots of water losses have been repaired at comparatively low cost.

Additional, major losses can be repaired similarly; however, additional losses reduction might be costly as it will be necessary to repair the canal lining over long stretches. In addition, mud slides, debris and, occasionally, animals that end up in the unprotected Ibër-Lepenc canal, and polluted run-off from the surrounding fields and streets, all imperil both the reliability and the quality of the bulk water supply service. The bacteriological and chemical pollution and the debris are also increasingly affecting the water quality proper, which is a growing concern as all three water sources will soon be used intensively for municipal tap water supply. A separate report1 has assessed dam safety and based on its recommendations this study does not address this issue.

1

Kosovo Irrigation Rehabilitation Project - Dam Safety Component, 2004, under EU support, carried out by DHV Consultants. The report assesses the structural safety of the 5 dams (Gazivoda, Batllava, Badovc, Radoniqi and Prilepnica) and concludes that their relatively recent construction and good building standards have prevented development of major emergencies thus far. However, on all dams safety issues are emerging (piping, bulging, sagging, etc.) and concerns are arising regarding the adequacy of the spillway and emergency procedures. The report accepts that repair is not yet high priority but recommends vigilance and deeper follow-up, at an estimated cost of €1 million).

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17. The municipal and key industrial water supply systems are for the moment supplied through individual piping and canal systems, which are often beyond their economic lifetime, or in dire need of rehabilitation and modernization. Rehabilitation work has been started. In order to reduce their vulnerability to supply disruption, additional storage needs to be built and these systems to be better interconnected to bridge critical supply periods. At the moment water supply to the major towns is vulnerable as the supplies are not diversified. With Prishtina municipal water supply drawing soon (as per 2014) water from the Ibër-Lepenc canal for the first time, the city will have taken a step to diversify its current dependence on the Batllava and Badovc reservoirs.

Similarly, additional storage capacity along the Ibër-Lepenc canal is advisable to provide the buffer to secure water supply under extreme circumstances to the new and larger New Kosovo power plant as well as the refurbished Kosovo B plant.

18. The trend towards increasing pollution of groundwater needs to be reversed. Groundwater is increasingly polluted. Ninety percent of the town and rural population without access to a piped network depend on shallow wells or boreholes for drinking and cooking. The pollution of groundwater is growing due to the rapid pace of urbanization on the land around cities and the emergence of small industrial facilities in the absence of effective pollution prevention mechanisms. To achieve the objective of safe water supply, piped water supply systems need to be further expanded to increase the connection rates, and measures need to be taken towards groundwater pollution control. Such policies should be developed in an integrated water management strategy for the basin, which is to be in line with the EU WFD. 19. The quality of the return and used waters that are collected in the Sidnica river is very poor. This presents potentially a threat for human health locally, and may become a source of conflict with the downstream riparian (Serbia).

20. Over the next two decades demand will grow while climate change and variability will likely reduce precipitation. Thus, shortages may occur in the system. Using the WEAP model, a number of scenarios were developed for the period up to the year 2035. Each scenario takes progressively more factors into account in order to test the vulnerability of the system. Since the reservoir systems are not interconnected at the moment, water needs and availability are calculated for each reservoir separately. Scenario 1 only considers the increase of water needs for human consumption. Scenario 2 in addition considers growing irrigation needs. The existing irrigation system (mostly fallen into disrepair) was designed originally for 19,000 hectares, could service 8,000 hectares, but in 2010 only 1000 hectares were actually irrigated. Scenario 2 assumes that in total 10,000 hectares will be irrigated in the Ibër basin by 2035. Scenario 3 adds demand from industry and mining, as well as the increased consumptive demand resulting from cooling purposes (of which most is non-consumptive).

Scenario 4 looks at how scenario 3 will cope in a dry year under historical meteorological conditions. Finally, Scenario 5 analyzes the risk stemming from dry years becoming even drier as a consequence of non-historical climate change. Scenario 4 is illustrated for the Gazivoda reservoir (fig. 5).

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Figure 6: Gazivoda water balance in 2035 assuming increased demand from all sectors and under historical dry year condition (i.e. under historical meteorological conditions without climate change) 21. Water resource shortages are increasingly likely to occur in future dry years if no adaptive action is taken.

As figure 6 illustrates for the Gazivoda dam, that has the largest reserve capacity by far for bulk water supply for the moment, shortages in dry years will occur by or around 2035, especially in the months April through August during the irrigation season. However, for the Badovc and Batllava reservoirs the structural shortages in dry years will likely start occurring already from before 2010, and from 2020, respectively. It should be noted that these simulations for the Gazivoda reservoir assume that unmet demand for the Badovc and Batllava reservoirs from the areas south and east of Prishtina would not be shifted to the Gazivoda/Ibër-Lepenc canal system. Nor do these simulations anticipate that growing land and pollution pressures on these reservoirs may actually depress their supply capacity. It is likely, however, that over the next two decades a growing demand from this part of the basin will be effectively shifted to the Gazivoda/Ibër-Lepenc canal, which would irrevocably lead this system to meet its maximum supply capacity sometime between 2020 and 2030. Table 1 summarizes the analysis made on the results obtained under WEAP model development.

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Table 1: WEAP results analysis indicating risk levels under 5 scenarios System

Scenario

By 2020

By 2035

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 System System

1

-

Gazivoda Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Worst Case scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2

System System

2

–

Batllava Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Worst Case scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2

System 2 – Badovc System

Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Worst Case scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2

System 3 – Groundwater Scenario 3 System Scenario 4 Worst Case scenario

Bulk water supply lower than demand but risk of occasional shortage -- measures to be prepared Water security assured but limited – initiate implementation of adaptive measures Demand exceeds supply – water saving measures essential Not applicable

22. In conclusion, the capacity of the existing water resources, i.e. the reservoirs and groundwater, to satisfy current demand and the demand in the immediate future (2013-2017) is adequate for two reservoirs and inadequate for that part of Prishtina city that is supplied by the Badovc reservoir. However, in the short term, the

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main concern regarding the vulnerability of the system, and the security of water provision, refers to the poor condition of the conveyance structures, the absence of buffer capacity to bridge temporary shortage, the lack of interconnectedness of the different demand zones in the basin, and the lack of a planning mechanism to identify priorities both for investment and for water allocation to the various users of bulk water conveyed.

D- Priority Measures and Investments 23. In response to this vulnerability, the study has identified structural and non-structural priority measures and has identified a number of investment and policy concepts, which will require further analysis.

The structural measures in the immediate short term include: (i) reduction of losses in the bulk transmission systems, (ii) establishment of interconnections for water transfer between the different systems/zones in the Ibër basin, and (iii) protection of the Ibër-Lepenc canal against blockages, pollution and other types of disruption. The non-structural measures include: (i) protection measures for catchment areas (policies, monitoring, enforcement, administrative capacity and staff training, etc.), (ii) enhanced monitoring and data collection in particular for groundwater, and (iii) enhanced monitoring and data collection for hydrology purposes in general.

24. For the longer run, the creation of additional water supply and storage would need to be examined. (This could be from an enhanced Gazivoda/Ibër system; construction of a new reservoir on the Lepenc in the south with conveyance canal to Central Kosovo2; and a conveyance system, possibly involving deep groundwater, from the west of the country). Replacing the existing open canal for conveying clean water from Gazivoda reservoir by a pressurised pipe to reduce losses is also a possibility. Reduction of the consumption per capita is to be encouraged. It should be reminded that it is not sure that irrigation will expand to 10,000 ha and that drip irrigation can reduce the overall water consumption.

25. Measures have been packaged and prioritized using several criteria. Preliminary economic analysis of prioritized packages has been carried out. The measures have been considered and assessed using a multicriteria approach. Each measure has been analyzed with respect to: stakeholder commitment, environmental impact, transboundary consequences, economic development impact and immediate employment impacts, technical complexity, flexibility and readiness. Four priority project packages have been identified. The first package is already ongoing and is mentioned for completeness. For each package the components have been identified and a cost-benefit analysis, also based on NPV calculation (Net Present Value) has been carried out.

However, the analysis has suggested that most of these measures can be considered "no regret" measures, as they need to be taken irrespective of the different development scenarios, and to address situations that will soon take emergency forms due to the poor condition of the infrastructure and the growing demand against stagnating supply.

26. A project to improve connectivity for Prishtina and enhance water supply reliability is expected to start in 2012. A project has been developed by the Prishtina Regional Water Company with KfW funding. This project would draw part of the water supply of Prishtina from the Ibër-Lepenc canal, thus making the water supply of Prishtina less vulnerable (more secure). At the same time, this investment will further increase the

2

The Bank has advised the government through this same Advisory Activity that the 1980 designs for the Lepenc reservoirs are not any longer realistic. Yet, an alternative reservoir site and conveyance system have been identified, however, their cost are beyond the reach of the country at this moment (Kosovo—Towards a Water Strategic Action Plan: Assessment of water demand and supply, and of the feasibility of the South Ibër-Lepenc Scheme, The World Bank, November 2009.

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importance of securing uninterrupted water supply from the Ibër- Lepenc canal, as well as taking precautionary action to minimize the opportunities for pollution of the canal water.

27. A project package to secure uninterrupted water supply of good quality from the Ibër- Lepenc canal (estimated cost up to €31 million). This package includes the following investment measures: (i) repair of the canal (lining, abutments, foundations, cuttings, culverts, etc.) and protection against renewed physical damage from landslides, unstable soils, and man-made disruptions, (ii) short-term storage along the canal to bridge peak water demand and temporary outages for repair purposes, (iii) protection of the canal against recurrent pollution, accidental pollution and other threats and disruptions, through interventions such as fencing and covers, (iv) equipment for better management of gates and regulation of water flows, (v) establishment of a stakeholder platform for a dialogue on allocation rules, (vi) support to the establishment of rules for water allocation and prioritization between competing demands, and (vii) capacity building for Ibër- Lepenc Canal Water Company for these issues as well as training on how to deal with emergency situations. The total cost has been estimated at about €31 million. The benefit-cost ratio is higher than 1.1. The largest cost component is the proposed lining of 25 kilometres of the canal at an estimated cost of €25 million for a complete renovation which could be considered excessive. However, this option could still provide benefits in the long run as the amount of water available would be larger. The proposed length, cost and other specifics will have to be tested and appraised in a feasibility study. With a certain budget available, a key task for the feasibility study would be to identify the sections that most urgently need lining.

28. A package for pilot groundwater knowledge development and protection (estimated at €1.4 million). This package includes the following investment measures: (i) description of characteristics and identification of significant pressures on (pilot) groundwater bodies, (ii) installation of groundwater monitoring networks, and (iii) support to farmers to establish physical measures to protect drinking water supply. The total investment costs have been assessed at about €1.4 million, and the benefit-cost ratio to be above 3. The project is a pilot project, which addresses the key issue of groundwater protection in the Ibër basin. Groundwater protection is particularly important for the rural population which is not connected to centralized piped water supply.

29. A project package for protection of drinking water reservoirs (estimated at €12 million). This package would include the following investment measures: (i) preparation of a protection plan for each of the three reservoirs in line with the EU Drinking Water Directive, (ii) equipment for monitoring of hydrology and water quality, (iii) capacity building of staff, (iv) sanitation facilities for recreational facilities at the reservoirs, (v) septic tanks and wastewater and run-off drainage for rural (low-density) residences, farms and businesses not planned to be connected to a centralized drainage and wastewater system, and, last but not least, (vi) land purchase for headwaters conservation areas. The total investment costs have been assessed to be approximately €12 million (including land purchases) and the benefit-cost ratio to be approximately 2.

E- Conclusion 30. The study has documented the importance of investing in water security in central Kosovo and has identified no-regret priority measures for the short term within a planning horizon of 3-6 years. The study would need to be complemented by deeper analysis, notably to confirm that the proposed no-regret measures are indeed the best and most cost-effective options to address the rising lack of supply security. However, the proposed measures are likely essential to reduce the vulnerability of the economic heart of Kosovo to water shortages in dry years due to supply interruption and to pollution, and climate change that will substantially deteriorate the water balance, after 2020. page 23/211

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PART I

CONTEXT, CONCEPT AND TOOLS

I. REPORT SCOPE & PROJECT AREA This study is part of a larger program with the development objective to secure future water supply to strategic sectors in Kosovo. The strategic sectors include domestic water use, power and irrigation as well as key industries.

The specific objectives for this study are: 1) To assist the Government of Kosovo in improving its river basin planning and management by providing for demonstration purposes a replicable model for integrated river basin planning and management. This model will take into account the status of Kosovo as a potential EU candidate country and thus the need to move towards alignment with the EU acquis, including but not limited to the Water Framework Directive.

2) To support the Government of Kosovo in its identification of structural and non-structural priority measures within the water sector, broadly to achieve its socio-economic development objectives as well as good water quality in the Ibër basin. This will be done by providing for demonstration purposes a multi-criteria model for prioritization of measures as well as identifying and describing initial priority investments that would meet the criteria for possible co-funding by the World Bank.

Due to time and data limitations, as mentioned in the inception report, SCE/OIEau worked focusing on the following aspects: -

Water bodies delineation and pressure analysis, status of water bodies, measures to achieve environmental objective;

-

Measures to secure water supply for the different users: households, agricultural sector, industry and mining sector in the urban and rural areas of Central Kosovo;

The team has considered also the aim of providing better water security in all circumstances in Central Kosovo and ecosystem restoration. They are essential aspects especially for the following objectives: -

Enabling the environment for public and private investment

-

Achieving the Good status of Water Bodies (as stipulated as the guiding objective in the Water Framework Directive).

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II. COMMON UNDERSTANDING: ― MOVING TOWARDS WATER SECURITY IN CENTRAL KOSOVO ― II.1. CONCEPT OF WATER SECURITY FOR THIS STUDY For water security assessment, the waters can be divided in three categories: Water resources: the water of springs, streams, lakes, reservoirs, rivers, groundwater, including the river beds and the aquifer geological layers; Bulk water: the water in a canal or in large pipes which are regulated by gates or valves and can be distributed for users of various sectors through a water supply system; Water for end users: this is the water which has been distributed such as tap water, cooling water in generator, irrigation water in sprinklers.

In this study, we considered Water Security as a policy including the following objectives: -

Ensure, on a continuous, undisturbed basis, a degree of comfort for bulk water supply, avoiding water shortages in dry years or a series of dry years.

-

Ensure that in case of emergency due to the damage of a key water infrastructure, there are alternative resources and parts of the water systems continue to function, which could reduce dramatic socio-economic costs.

-

Ensure that Water Security is available at a fair price and is in line with sustainable management of companies and environment protection.

II.2. PRELIMINARY OBJECTIVES FOR WATER SECURITY A policy of water security can be briefly characterised by a number of principles such as the following, which are proposed by the Consultant:  

 

Equitable and reasonable water allocation including transboundary waters (concept of international legislation); Contribute to achieve a sustainable water resource management, through tariff policy and reference to principle such as ―water users pays‖ and ―polluter pays‖, Protection of water resource for future uses and for biological balance of ecosystems Ensuring a degree of continuity in bulk water supply, even in drought years and emergency conditions to avoid or reduce socio-economic losses.

The degree of security to be achieved is not defined precisely or in quantifiable statistical terms in this study, but these general principles formed guidelines for the criteria to prioritize measures and for the measures assessment process.

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III. INFLUENCE ON WATERS SECURITY OF THE CHANGING SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT IN CENTRAL KOSOVO III.1.

ISSUES REGARDING THE IBËR LEPENC CANAL The Ibër Lepenc (IL) water infrastructure—its reservoirs, canals, and related works--was designed more than 30 years ago. At that time, there were plans to irrigate 20 000 ha in Central Kosovo. The course of historical events has thwarted these plans. As a matter of fact, in 2009 and 2010 less than 1000 ha were irrigated. The IL canal is large enough and the quantity of water in the Gazivoda reservoir is sufficient to cover the demand of various users. In 2011 a large quantity of the water from the reservoir has flown back to the Ibër river and to Serbia.

The lack of maintenance of the IL canal during the years of wars and its aftermaths led to degradation and important water losses. The Ibër-Lepenc Canal Company started to repair the canal structure where losses were causing nuisances. This rehabilitation effort was made possible by the revenues generated by selling hydro-electricity to Kosovo Electricity Company (KEK) and bulk water to various users, mostly industries and power plants.

The managers of the IL Canal Company informed the consultant that the main issues they have to tackle are the following:  

 





a large number of illegal connections alongside the canal diverts water, run-off and sediments enter the canal during high rainfall. The devices which were constructed to reduce the impact of sediment are damaged and do no longer work properly; they need to be rehabilitated and expanded, solid waste is dumped in the canal and accumulates at the grids preventing their entry in siphons; this requires constant attention, structural defects in the canal structure cause water losses. When these are important points of losses, the water flowing outside the canal can cause nuisances to surrounding properties and infrastructure, landslides were observed in 2010 along the canal. If no protective measures are taken soon, the soil movements close to the canal can endanger the structure and cause important damages, techniques and equipment need to be introduced to allow to divert water inside the canal without cutting the water flow. Some parts of the canal siphons have not been inspected from the inside since their construction because the water has to flow non-stop in the canal to provide cooling water for power plants. Hence, the repairs are performed preferably when the flow of water is not too high. When there will be a higher level of utilization of the canal bulk water used, rehabilitation work will be harder.

The Consultant‘s canal survey in August 2010 confirmed the above assessments.

For several years, especially in 2009 and 2010, the IL Canal Company has proceeded to repair the canal structures. Priority was given to location of major losses. Rehabilitation works were also undertaken in locations where there are risks of future nuisances or damages on public structures.

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Another important trend is the house and building construction boom and poor land zoning enforcement. Houses and small business compounds are built around towns and villages without consideration of the impact on the water flows, the canal system, or the possibility to expand irrigation in the future. As a result, many branches of the existing old irrigation systems cannot be used anymore because houses were constructed on top of the pipes. The area which can be irrigated with the current irrigation system is therefore shrinking from year to year.

Figure 7: Type of losses and illegal connections in Ibër Lepenc canal (Consultant survey, August 2010)

III.2.

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT The use of the bulk water from the Ibër-Lepenc canal will increase in the coming years.

Plans exist for the water from the IL canal to be used for the production of drinking water to serve the population and other users of the towns of Mitrovica, Vushtry and Prishtina.

In addition, it has been proposed that the water flowing at the end of the canal be utilized for cooling the power plant called ―New Kosovo‖, which is planned to be constructed. It will be composed of two units of 280-300 MW each, going on-line in 2016-2017. Additional generation will be needed after about 2020, it is expected that future energy needs might be provided by non-thermal sources.

Anyhow, before 2035, the planned new power generation will need water.

This evolution of the use of the water of Ibër Lepenc canal has several implications:

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

For drinking water production: the quality of water should besatisfactory all the time. This means that the water used has to be protected from contamination of toxic substances. This is an issue as the IL canal is a mostly open canal surrounded by human activities,



The disruption of conveyance that might occur should not exceed several days lest it will create difficulties in power generation which requires a continuous supply of cooling water.

To secure continuous supply of water to the power plant and avoid a possible disruption of bulk water conveyance of water, it is planned to construct buffer water storages facilities.

For the New Kosovo project a storage corresponding to 10 days of water demand was proposed. As for the newly planned Prishtina water treatment plant, storage is also planned. (see: Kosovo C- Strategic Environmental Social Assessment p 52) Other options can be envisaged, such as a common storage, the installation of pumps for groundwater abstraction along the canal, or a separate, smaller water conveyance pipe going serving the cooling system in case of emergency.

However, there is a risk that these storages will not be sufficient: For instance, -

In case the flow of cooling water cannot be re-established within 10 days (e.g., due to an earthquake) the increased power cuts will have high risk of economical and social losses,

-

the water stored and conveyed for producing drinking water can become contaminated as the IL Canal is a (mostly) open and unprotected canal. As a result, drinking water production might have to be temporarily discontinued. If the contamination is not detected in time, people may be using contaminated tap water.

It is important to note that the quality required for drinking water production is higher than the one needed for cooling power generators or for irrigation.

What will happen in case of shortage or reduction of the flow at the end of the canal where the largest and economically most significant users are situated? During such water crisis, difficult arbitration between competing water uses needs to be done by the authorities. Procedural rules for such arbitration have to be set up in detail and introduced in the regulations and in contracting agreements with water users. Communication on these rules should be regularly carried out to avoid non-cooperative behaviours during crisis. Simulation of what would happen in case an earthquake or an accident occurs should be carried out with the relevant actors in charge of civil security, water and energy supply.

The management of Regional Water Companies reported that, in the long run, to avoid water shortage and water quality related risks, that it would be preferable to have independent secure access to well protected water resources of ensured good quality. The management suggested that it would be necessary to consider an increased diversification of good-quality water resources for their raw water (concept of emergency resources).

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III.3.

ENERGY AND WATER The water sector and the energy sector are highly interrelated. The yearly contracts between the IL Canal Company and the KEK Company have an important influence on the functioning of the IL water system.

-

The water from Gazivoda dam flows through turbines producing hydroelectricity that is sold to KEK, which currently provides most of the IL Company‘s revenues. The revenues of irrigation are very low in comparison.

-

The IL Canal Company is paying for pumping water up for the irrigation of the Drenica perimeters. This pumping station could be used for storing water in altitude,

-

The existing thermal power plants Kosovo A and B are causing a significant pollution pressure on the Sidnica River and on the groundwater surrounding Prishtina.

-

A power cut disrupts pumping for the distribution of water to users including industrial users. Such power cuts create economical losses.

The IL Canal Company – KEK water supply contract includes the price at which the Company sells the hydroelectricity. In 2010, the electricity is sold at a flat tariff which does not take into account peak hours.

The following changes of institutional arrangements and of water and electricity price would add further new implications on the use of bulk water: -

the setting up of a private-public partnership involving KEK for running the power plants,

-

currently, KEK is importing electricity at a high price. The introduction of a different tariff of purchasing of electricity by KEK depending on the period (peak and low demand) can make storage of water in altitude profitable (pumped storage schemes). The water will be pumped up during the lowtariff period and electricity produced during the high-tariff period. Of course, new installations are needed to benefit from this option, and detail feasibility analysis would be required.

Measures increasing power generation by a smart management of the water which is stored, conveyed or pumped can provide significant socio-economical benefits and reduce import of energy at a high cost during peak demand of electricity. If a double tariff is introduced, increased revenues could be generated for IL Canal Company by optimizing the use of water for energy production.

A strategy was defined for the Energy sector; the main elements of this strategy are the following.

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Figure 8: Bulk water conveyance and hydro-electricity of the Gazivoda reservoir, its buffer reservoir and the intake of the IL canal The key policy directions that determine strategic development of the energy sector in Kosovo are: Security and reliability of energy supply; - Integration in, and cooperation with the energy sectors in the South-East European region; - Using lignite as the major local resource for power generation, at least in mid-term; - Adhering to the EU energy and environmental directives and regulations; - Improving energy efficiency in all energy sectors and end-use sub sectors; - Reducing environmental pollution in general, and air pollution in particular; - Providing a regulatory framework for gradual liberalization privatization of power sector; - Introducing competition in the power sector by attracting a strategic IPP investor; - Recognizing mining and power sector as the main engines of economic development, employment, and export revenue providers; - Attracting private investments for development of gas and oil interconnection pipelines and local infrastructure

It should be noted that the decision to build a power plant which does not rely on a relatively high quantity and continuous supply of bulk water would positively affect the water management of the canal and increase the security to other water users in case of emergency. Such generation plant would be more expensive in terms of capital and operating costs, but this cost should be compared to the cost generated to secure a large amount of water for a long time.

The literature concerning risk assessment and recent events in the world shows that there are many externalities which are difficult to monetise, especially in cases of extreme emergency.

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Systemic failures such as power cuts or failure of pumping systems may have a dramatic effect on the wider economy and the public health as well as a lasting impact on investment opportunities.

III.4.

INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT The three following elements should be kept in mind as far as international aspects are concerned:  Serbia plans to increase the power generation through hydroelectricity in the Ibër River Basin. In a long-term perspective, the energy and water demand of towns close to the Gazivoda reservoir may have an influence on the optimal use of its waters,  If conveyance and distribution inefficiency are taken care of (reduction of leakage, operation of gates), additional water of the reservoir would become available for other uses and generate revenues. There will be the possibility of water use without much additional impact downstream,  Under international legislation regarding transboundary watercourses, each riparian country of a watercourse should inform the authorities of the other countries, both upstream and downstream, of its intention to use additional water. Measures are proposed to address this issue,  To avoid any tension, the water management of IL canal gates should ensure that the minimum environmental flow is maintained in the Ibër /Sidnica River.

In the long term, pragmatic cooperation for efficient water allocation would provide socio-economic benefits for all communities in the basin.

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IV. CONCEPTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE ISSUES IV.1.

SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF THE ISSUES

Figure 9: Key elements for balancing demand and supply in the future Figure 9 outlines the issue to be addressed: First, the baseline situation in 2010 has to be described considering: -

the existing water system including the inefficiencies, the current demand, the current supply.

The water balance of the different water systems can be assessed and the probability of water shortage if no measures are taken can be estimated.

Second, the future situation can be described by simulation with a model, considering: -

the possible climate change, the change in the water system and in the water management generated by structural and non-structural measures, the future demand, the future supply.

The water balance and the risk of shortage can be estimated based on these parameters. Several parameters describing climate change impacts, future conditions of the water systems, as well as future water demand can be introduced in a number of scenarios. The resulting water balance can be assessed through a simulation process.

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A modelling tool to simulate the water balance has been selected, namely the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP). The WEAP System model was developed by the SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute) to enable evaluation of planning and management issues associated with water resources development.

It is a user-friendly software that can be used freely by public institutions. A license for two years use has been provided to the Water Department of the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning. This model has already been used by the water Department during an ECLO-funded project from 2008 to 2010. The model was set up to assess the water balance and allocation of the Radoniqi reservoir area, located in the Drini River Basin.

The Consultant has set up and used the model for the project zone, that is, the Ibër basin within Kosovo, but including the upstream part in Montenegro, and for a small area in Serbia. The model is used to assess the water balance under baseline and future conditions.

The water balance of the year 2010 has been simulated through a scenario which can be considered as the baseline scenario.

IV.2.

USE OF WEAP: A RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT MODELING TOOL A-

WEAP MODEL MAIN FEATURES The WEAP model can be applied for both municipal and agricultural systems and addresses a wide range of issues including: -

sectoral demand analyses, ecosystem requirements, stream flow simulation, water conservation, water rights allocation priorities, reservoir operation.

It has an economic module with project cost-benefit analyses. It provides a comprehensive, flexible and user-friendly framework for planning and policy analysis (see Figure 10).

Figure 10: WEAP model modules

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The WEAP model has two primary functions (Sieber and River 2004): a) Simulation of natural hydrological processes (e. g., evapo-transpiration, runoff and infiltration) to enable assessment of the water availability within a catchment. b) Simulation of anthropogenic activities superimposed on the natural system to influence water resources and their allocation (i. e. consumptive and nonconsumptive water).

B-

SET UP OF A WEAP MODEL FOR THE IBËR RIVER BASIN IN KOSOVO, SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO The GIS files of the Ibër River Basin were introduced and a scheme of the water system including the reservoir, the river and the canal was designed by SCE/OIEau (see Figure 11).

The main elements influencing the water balance are shown in the WEAP schematic map, including: -

the location of the uptake of water in reservoir and channels for several uses, the return flow, the demand points in different areas.

The input parameters of the model can be changed easily to simulate the supply/demand situation in the future under several scenarios.

The data corresponding to the supply and demand were entered in the system to simulate the baseline scenario. The data entered are a combination of realistic data (measured or known data) and hypothesis data (based on assumptions).

Table 2 shows the data which have been collected and used for the WEAP modelling activity.

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LEGEND

Figure 11: WEAP hydrography and water system architecture of the Ibër Basin (SCE/OIEau 2010)

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LEGEND

Figure 12: WEAP scheme of the Ibër Lepenc canal water conveyance and of Prishtina and Mitrovica regions bulk water supply

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V. SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND DATA LIMITATION Table 2 presents the data source and comments about the data collected. Other sources of information are listed in the bibliography (Annex 1).

Table 2: Data collection records Data

Sources and availability

Data quality

Ibër basin and lake and canals characteristics, Hydrology of Gazivoda dam, optimization of the Gazivoda reservoir

Data collected from Ibër Lepenc Company under the format of book – three old Serbian books – Good quality

Good quality

Climatic information Precipitation and Temperature

Limited information Data collected from Master plan 1985 – Good quality

Hydrological data/Water discharge/Water levels/runoff

Data collected from Master Plan

Hydrogeological data Monthly abstraction of wells/Depth for the ground water aquifer/characteristic of the ground water

Limited data from Regional Water Supply Company Prishtina, report from Prishtina water supply project

Water demand/water consumption users (consumption of water for agriculture/irrigation/industry)

Data collected from Ibër Lepenc Company

Water consumption by inhabitants

Under collection from Regional Water Supply Company Pristine

General Hydrological and geographical Data

Good quality up to 1985, uneven quality afterwards Good quality Quality not well known Data estimated not measured, quality uneven Not well known, many Estimates and assumptions

Georeferenced data Delineation of basins, sub-basins and land users

Data collected from Water Department

Land use information

Maps and data on Land use base on Corine Lancover classification

Difficulty linked to the several projections used, some errors exist The land use has changed compared to the land use existing when the data were collected

Water bodies characterisation and pressure Surface water bodies delineation

Data collected from Water Department: Delineation started during the ECLO Drini project

Good quality

Point sources of pollution

Data collected from Water Department UNDP and Mitrovica

Quality uneven and geographical

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Data

Sources and availability University (on-going KEPA study not collected)

Water uses

Prishtina and Mitrovica Regional Company, Ibër Lepenc canal company, Institute of Statistic of Kosovo

Data quality localization not accurate Data estimated from several information, not very accurate

Economic data General aspects on Kosovo economy, Municipalities

WB reports Statistical data on population growth and on household revenues, survey from the statistical institute.

OSCE website Municipalities profile, Ministry of Agriculture Forest and Rural Development

Accuracy and of date of data not always well known,

Costs of agriculture production Agriculture economic information

Information collected during Farmer and specialist visit, WB documentation

General useful information but not always accurate

Economic data on industrial and Mining sectors in Ibër Lepenc River basin

Mostly from Internet, ICMM

Economic data on water production and use

Water regulatory office reports

Quality not well known Quality check through ECLO project but RWC have difficulties to collect accurate data

Climate change Study on climate change,

World Bank study, University study on climate changes on European lakes

Important uncertainties but the best of available information

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The information collected for the WEAP model includes the GIS files for rivers, reservoirs, villages and cities, river basins as well as sub-basins contours and characteristics, land cover, location of hydrometric stations, data on the hydrology (data series for rain distribution, temperature, runoff, water levels and river flows), hydrogeology, geological layers, stratigraphy and permeability.

This information was collected mainly from the Institute for Hydrometeorology of Kosovo (IHMK) and the Independent Commission for Mines and Minerals (ICMM) as well as from former ECLO Project on the Drini River Basin.

Information regarding pressure on the water bodies was collected mainly from the Water Department and from Kosovo Environment Protection Agency as well as from UNDP. Recent hydrological data are lacking or not reliable enough for processing under the limited time of this study. Many data were abstracted from the Water Master Plan which was produced in 1985 and has been assessed by previous international experts as a reliable source of information.

Most of the historical groundwater data of Kosovo are kept in Belgrade offices and are very difficult to access.

The GIS files have been corrected as in several cases the different files did not match.

A Kick-off Meeting of the Study was organized for the main government stakeholders and the World Bank in September 2010. This meeting has helped to facilitate data collection and improved the broader understanding of the baseline scenario and the scenarios for future conditions.

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PART II IBËR RIVER BASIN IN KOSOVO & TRANSBOUNDARIES WATERS I.1. GEOGRAPHICAL AREA - INTERNATIONAL WATERS A-

PROJECT AREA The project area is the Ibër River Basin as well as certain territories which are technically located in the Drini Bardhë River Basin but are actually served by water originating from the Ibër basin.

The Ibër and Drini Bardhë river basins have a 217.7 km long common border.

Map 1: The Ibër River Basin up to the Serbian Border (Source SCE/OIEau 2010)

Ibër River Basin

Drini River Basin

LEGEND River Kosovo Border Reservoir Hydrometric stations

The sources of the Ibër River are in the Hajla mountains of Montenegro. The Ibër River flows through the Gazivoda reservoir and dam that has an area of 11.9 km², of which 9.2 km² belongs to Kosovo and 2.7 km² to Serbia.

Then, the Ibër river flows through the town of Mitrovica in Kosovo before turning north and reaching the border with Serbia and thereafter flowing into the West Morava River (Zapadna Morava), Central Serbia, near Kraljevo.

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The main tributary of the Ibër River in Kosovo is the Sidnica River, which receives the polluted water of the city of Prishtina and of its suburbs, and from several industries. The pollution of the Sidnica affects the Ibër River. The river receives also the pollution of the Mitrovica town and its industrial areas.

Map 2: Hydrological zones and tributaries of the Ibër River Basin up to the Serbian Border.

Ibër River

Batllava reservoir

Llapi LEGEND Sub-river basin

Gazivoda reservoir

River

Drenica

Reservoir Hydrometric stations

Map 2 shows the different hydrological units in the Ibër River Basin and the location of the three main reservoirs. The characteristics of the river basin of the tributaries are detailed in Table 3.

Sidnica –main tributary of the Ibër Table 3: Tributaries of the Ibër River and surface of their river basin

Left bank

Badovce reservoir

Right bank

Hydrological sub-basin

Surface (km2)

Hydrological sub-basin

Surface (km2)

Lushta

48, 48

Lumi i Zi

65, 54

Patina

28, 3

Llapi

930

Brosova

45, 59

Prishtevka

103, 7

Drenica

438, 4

Graçanica

157, 9

Lug

56, 13

Janjeva

73, 64

Bushanovc

41, 56

Zhegova

67, 2

Shtime

186, 1

Gadime

66, 61

Total

844, 56

Total

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B-

CENTRAL KOSOVO AREA WATER SUPPLY

Map 3: Ibër River Basin, the Regional Water Companies‘ area and Kosovo Municipalities

LEGEND: Municipalities Prishtina Regional Water Supply Company (RWC) Mitrovica Regional Water Supply Companies (RWC) Municipality in negotiation for joining Mitrovica RWC Ibër River Basin

The project area encompasses a large number of the Municipalities of Kosovo and includes the two main cities of Prishtina and Mitrovica. Table 4 (source: OSCE Municipalities profile) provides figures regarding the population, the ethnical composition as well as key information regarding the economic activities and the water supply.

In the north the unemployment rate is very high due to the closure of mining and industrial activities. The political and administrative situation is unclear and varies from one municipality to the other. In several municipalities of Central Kosovo agriculture and small family business are the main activities. Large companies such as KEK (energy production) or Ferronikeli (mines) employ a large number of staff. However, the environmental performance of these units is poor.

Water supply service varies due to several factors, such as relief, political situation, and water resource quality. In the north, the municipalities of Lepos Aviq and Zubin Potok are in negotiations for joining the Mitrovica Regional Water (MRW) Company. Up to 2010 the MRW Company has supplied water to Serbian populated areas but this water is not paid by the population. In Vushtrri municipality, drinking water supply is expected to improve in villages through an ECLO investment project. Other locations, especially remote villages, still have poor water supply and sanitation services. In the plain of the Ibër and Sidnica River many villages rely on shallow ground water which is often contaminated.

Children often suffer from water related diseases in such cases as there are no alternative water sources.

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Table 4: List and main characteristics of the municipalities (Source: OSCE Municipalities profile 2007 to 2009) Municipality

Population

Albanians

Serbs & other communities

Surface

Nb villages

Density IDP

Socio-economic facts

Leposaviq/Leposavić (Sept 2009)

20300

200

18600

750

72

27

2500

Poor conditions of water supply and electricity, Institute for Serbian Culture, Institution for Protection of Cultural Heritage. Serbian legislation is applied by the Municipality.

All industries are closed. High unemployment due to closure of Trepça mine.

Zubin Potok (Sept. 2009)

14000

335

64

42

2800

Electrical supply by Serb Electric corporation and sewage system are problematic.

Water supply was improved recently.

May 2008, Serbian Municipal election, the Municipality follows Serbian legislation.

The Albanian Municipal communal office in Çabrë follows Kosovo legislation.

Food processing factories. Serbian factories have difficulties since their access to Kosovo market has decreased after the end of war.

Zveçan/Zvečan (Sept 2009)

17000

350

16000

104

35

163

4000

Once employing 4 000 people, UNMIK and KFOR shut factory Tepça/Trepča Mines down for health and environmental reasons. 500 people work in private companies and shops.

Very low operation of the lead and zinc smelting factory.

Mitrovicë/Mitrovica (Sept 2009)

130000

110000

Northern part 20000 inhabitants, 3000 Bosniaks

7000

Town divided by the Ibër/Ibar river. Urban Regulatory Plan for Roma Mahala with 184 houses to be constructed.

Tepça/Trepča Mines closure led to high unemployment rate 77 %.

In May 2008 an Office of the Regional Development Agency in North Kosovo ECLO was opened to foster development through external support, mostly for the

49

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Municipality

Population

Albanians

Serbs & other communities

Surface

Nb villages

Density IDP

Socio-economic facts Southern part but not restricted to it. In June 2009 a ‗Forum Mitrovicasit for Mitrovica‘ was initiated, including local business actors and media to bring attention on the municipality to the Ministry of Local Government Administration. It is supported by UNDP.

Podujevë/Pudujevo

126000

125000

700 Roma and Ashkali - other communities

663

78

190

Agriculture oriented. In 2005 two factories (brick and metal parts) were privatized.

Sewage system is being improved since 2009.

Vushtri

102600

96000

5000 Gojbulje

344

66

298

3 million euro EU funded project for water supply, Irrigation expansion project 1 300 ha MAFRD

Obiliq/Obilić (Sept 2009)

30000

25000

3400 Serbs

19

KEK is the primary employer. Albanian farmers cooperative basis, lake of sewage system, small remote village not connected to water supply

Gllogoc/Glogovac (Sept 2007)

73000

73000

Mono ethic

36

Agricultural oriented wheat and corn.

Industry: Ferronikel mine which was privatized in 2005 and two quarries and small enterprises, small family shops

Prishtina

500, 000

Mostly Albanian Serb in Gracanica/Graçanicë

Fushë Kosovë/Kosovo Polje (Sept. 2009)

50000

43000

17

Water and electricity supply difficult. Agriculture oriented, 522 ha pasture land, warehouses and supermarket and shops, agro-processing industry

572

3800 Kosovo Ashkali, 2800 Serbs + other communities

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I.2. IBËR TRANSBOUNDARY WATERS AND DANUBE RIVER BASIN 1)

IBËR RIVER BASIN INSIDE THE DANUBE RIVER BASIN The Ibër River flows into the Danube through the Morava River. The source of the Morava is in South Kosovo (Map 4).

These transboundary waters and their river basins are part of the large Danube International River Basin District (IRBD). A river basin district as defined in the article European Water Framework Directive (WFD) means the area of land and sea, made up of one or more neighbouring river basins together with their associated ground waters and coastal water which is identified under Article 3(1) as the main unit for management of river basin. Article 3(1) mentions that each Member State shall ensure that a river basin covering the territory of more than one Member State is assigned to an international river basin district.

Map 4: River basins and relief in Kosovo

Source: ECLO Drini River Basin Project 208-2010

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Map 5: Ibër River Basin inside the Danube River Basin and riparian countries

Ibër River transboundary waters DANUBE RIVER BASIN

LEGEND

Morava River transboundary waters

River Country

DANUBE RIVER BASIN Source: SCE/OIEau map 2010 Maps 4 and 5 show that the Ibër River as well as the West Morava river flow in Serbia into the Great Morava. Further downstream, the Great Morava flows into the Danube. The Ibër River and the Morava River basin in Kosovo are part of the Danube International River Basin District.

The Gazivoda reservoir on the Ibër River is the largest reservoir of water in Kosovo. Its capacity is around 370 million m3. The Gazivoda dam was constructed during the Yugoslav regime with World Bank financing. It was designed for several purposes: -

hydro-power generation, irrigation of up to 20 000 ha, drinking water supply of towns.

The bulk water is conveyed through the 49 km long Ibër Lepenc canal to the several places of use. Conveyed water serves at the end of the canal to cool the power plants called Kosovo A and Kosovo B which are located close to Obilic town. The water is used both in the Serbian and Albanian populated areas of Kosovo.

For the States that have recognised Kosovo as an independent State, the waters flowing from Kosovo into Serbia should fall under transboundary water international agreements.

One of the important international agreements is the Helsinki Convention on trans-boundary watercourses and international lakes, signed on behalf of the European Communities on 18th March 1992.

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-

transboundary waters are managed in a rational, environment-friendly manner,

-

transboundary waters are used in a reasonable and equitable way,

-

conservation and restoration of ecosystems are effective.

This convention (17th March 1992, registered ex officio on 6th October 1996) was signed by the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The signing parties met in Geneva in 2007 to foster its implementation and provide improved mechanisms for achieving its aims.

An important additional text attached to this Convention is the Protocol on Water and Health, signed in 1999, which required establishing national and local targets for the quality of drinking water and the quality of discharges as well as for the performance of water supply and waste water treatment.

It should be noted that Serbia ratified the Convention on Cooperation for the Protection and sustainable use of Danube River in 2003. Serbia became a full member of the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) in August 2003.

The Serbian government considers Kosovo a part of its territory and Serbian administration‘s maps available on the Internet include the territory of Kosovo. As a result, the water flowing from Northern Kosovo to Serbia is not considered by the Serbian government as international water. This position might be shared by the Danube riparian countries which have not recognised the unilateral independence of Kosovo.

Kosovo, as well as Serbia and Montenegro, is receiving support from the European Union (EU) to approximate the ‘EU acquis communautaire and to prepare their administration and institutions to access to the EU. Hence, in the field of water, the methodologies, provisions, standards and procedure steps of the WFD, as well as the ones of the Urban Waste Water Directive (1991), should be considered important guidelines for water-related investments in these three countries. The use of the same technical framework is an advantage for the future management of International Waters.

Among the WFD provisions concerning the international River Basin District, there are requirements regarding the necessary coordination between the EU members States and non-member States (Article 3 – paragraphs 4, 5, 6). This means that the ICPDR and its members will likely have an important role in the future in transboundary water management between Montenegro, Kosovo and Serbia.

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Map 6: Danube River basin – subunits and WISE reporting monitoring point for WFD

One important principle of the international convention on transboundary water courses is the right to information of the riparian countries on the possible impact and harm of important infrastructure or activities planned in one country.

Therefore, if any investment with significant impact is foreseen, application of this principle means that ICPDR and the Danube riparian countries have to be informed.

The signatories of the Danube River Protection Convention (DRPC) have agreed to co-operate on fundamental water management issues by taking "all appropriate legal, administrative and technical measures to at least maintain and where possible improve the current water quality and environmental conditions of the Danube river and of the waters in its catchment area, and to prevent and reduce as far as possible adverse impacts and changes occurring or likely to be caused‖.

It should be noted that international law is primarily created and enforced by States through their consent. In modern practice, the ratification process is important as the date of signature and the date of the deposit of the ―instrument of ratification‖ mark the moment when the State‘s legal obligation is effective once the treaty has entered into force.

In the rare instances where rules of customary law or treaty law are lacking or inadequate, the source of international law may be general principles of law.

These are derived from the domestic practice of the majority of legal systems around the world and generally include principles that are accepted by all.

In the absence of an agreement, customary international law provides that each Transboundary Water Course (TWC) State has the right to an equitable and reasonable use of a TWC located in its territory. Where one State has denied another State its equitable and reasonable utilization of a transboundary watercourse, the former will be liable to remedy the wrongful conduct. The remedies available to the State(s) whose rights have been violated include, inter alia, an order for cessation of the wrongful conduct, guarantees by the State in breach of 14 non-repetition of the wrongful acts, satisfaction (apology, exemplary damages), restitution, and compensation obligations – such as the requirement for prior notification of planned measures – are rules that must be adhered to by all States.

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Equitable and reasonable utilization is the primary rule of international law that governs the legality of TWC State‘s relations concerning the use of their shared watercourses. The rule – recognized as a rule of customary law and consistent with treaty practice -- has its origin in State practice, having evolved, in part, from the jurisprudence of federal States.

Correlative right and obligation. This rule recognizes both the TWC State‘s right to reasonable and equitable and reasonable use of the TWC, and the correlative obligation not to deprive other TWC States of their right to an equitable and reasonable utilization.

Optimal utilization. Equitable and reasonable utilization seeks to attain an optimal utilization, ―securing the maximum possible benefits for all watercourse States and achieving the greatest possible satisfaction of all their needs, while minimizing the detriment to, or unmet needs of, each.‖ Not equal shares. The principle of equitable and reasonable use does not mean an equal allocation of the resource or equal share of its uses and benefits. The application of equitable and reasonable utilization in a particular watercourse will not prohibit a use that causes damage unless it exceeds the limits of the using State‘s equitable share of the watercourse.

Evaluation of ―equitable and reasonable utilization‖. All relevant factors are to be considered together and a conclusion arrived at on the basis of the whole. The weight to be given each factor will depend upon the circumstances of the particular case, although state practice evidences strong support for protection of vital human needs and minimum in-stream flow requirements. The factors to be considered fall into two broad categories: (i) factors of a natural character (hydrographic, hydrological, climatic, ecological, and so forth), and; (ii) economic and social factors (economic needs, population dependent on watercourse, effects of use on other watercourse States, existing and potential uses, conservation measures, and availability of alternatives).

International procedural rules establish a range of obligations for the riparian countries: from a general duty to cooperate to obligations concerning data and information exchange, prior notification and consultation.

Thus, procedure obligations - such as the requirement for prior notification of planned measures - are rules that must be adhered to by all States.

The Trebča mine was closed by UNMIK and KFOR, since then the pollution load discharged in the Ibër River has decreased. Lead does not decompose over the years, it remains in the soil, contaminating all products growing in it.

Ongoing research conducted by Prishtinë/Priština University shows, for example, that the waters flowing in the Ibër and Sitnica rivers are still heavily polluted by heavy metals. (Source: OSCE) The wastewaters from Prishtina as well as the ones from other towns are discharged without treatment in the Sidnica River. As a consequence, the quality of Ibër River is affected by the poor quality of the Sidnica River.

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As far as the Ibër River is concerned there are, hence, several issues to be considered including:

2)

-

the quality of the water and the sediments: their low quality might impact the ecosystem of the Ibër downstream of Mitrovica,

-

the environmental flow: an increase of the use of water in the Gazivoda reservoir can lead to a reduction of the water flow through the spillway of the dams,

-

The countries downstream can request prior information and an assessment of the impact of any planned use of water. They can also call for a rational and equitable use of the water. For example, Serbia should normally be informed of the use of water for cooling the new Kosovo and its possible harmful impact, if any.

PROPOSAL

REGARDING PRIOR INFORMATION ON PLANNED USE OF RIPARIAN COUNTRIES

DANUBE

It is Kosovo‘s interest to follow the principle of international transboundary water as stipulated in the 1997 New York Convention.

One possible way to move forwards regarding prior-information of riparian states would be that Kosovo officially send a letter together with the relevant documents to the ICPDR International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River.

These documents would provide all the necessary information about the planned use of Ibër water course and its affluents on Kosovo territory, especially on the possible known significant impact of this use on the riparian Danube countries.

Since Serbia is member of the ICPDR, the ICPDR Commission will be in the position to officially inform all Danube riparian States about the application received from the Republic of Kosovo. The information on planned use could be then considered as having been officially forwarded to all concerned countries as stipulated in international legislation.

The agreement could be provided to Kosovo from ICPDR on behalf of the riparian countries in order for Kosovo to apply the international rules. An ICPDR Internal Proceeding might be necessary for Kosovo to receive such an agreement. To facilitate this process, it is advisable that the Kosovo parliament agrees and Kosovo authorities sign the 1997 New York Convention on transboundary water courses. The ICPDR could be given the mandate to follow up whether Kosovo is applying specific rules, as any member of this Commission.

In case this process proved not to be practical, an international organisation, such as the EU or the UN can set up a negotiation process aiming at finding a balance solution.

Ad hoc negotiation groups where the two parties are already exchanging information or claiming their rights could be also channels where water issue could be technically discussed.

An European State, already committed in the water sector can also take a diplomatic position in order to impose a pragmatic cooperation process between Kosovo and Serbia.

All the necessary steps to ease tension for this transboundary matter should be taken by Kosovar Authorities.

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.

PART III WATER BODIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL OBJECTIVES ACHIEVEMENT I.1. BRIEF OVERVIEW DIRECTIVES

OF

EUROPEAN

WATER

The WFD principles introduced the elaboration of an initial characterization of the river basin district (WFD Article 5). The Directive set environmental objectives to be achieved on each water body before 2015. The postponement of the achievement is possible up to 2021 or 2027 under specific circumstances such as natural conditions of disproportionate cost of measures.

The hydrographic system and the groundwater resources have to be divided in water bodies. Each water body has to reach its environmental objective specific to the category of water bodies. Each Surface Water Body must achieve the objective called ‗good status‘ or ‗good potential‘ when the Water Body is considered as heavily modified.

Each ground water body must also achieve the good status.

The good status for the Surface Water Body includes the good ecological status and the good chemical status. The good status for Ground Water Body includes a quantitative status (water balance) and a chemical status.

The ecological evaluation of Surface Water Body status requires the estimation of indices for different quality elements such as the following: 1) composition and abundance of certain water plants or animals (invertebrate fauna), 2) hydro-morphological elements, e. g. quantity and dynamics of water flow, river continuity or morphological conditions like structure of the riparian zone, 3) chemical and physico-chemical elements supporting the biological elements, e. g. nutrient conditions (concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus), and acidification status.

The chemical status requires that priority dangerous substances concentration be under environmental standard values.

The WFD implementation requires the preparation of the following documents: -

River Basin District characterisation

-

River Basin Management Plan

-

Programme of Measures to achieve the environmental objectives

-

Programme of Surveillance to monitor the progress towards the achievement of the objectives.

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This report focuses on the delineation of water bodies according to WFD provisions and to the initial characterization of the water uses and pressures on the water bodies.

I.2. DELINEATION AND CHARACTERISATION OF WATER BODIES A-

ECO REGIONS AND SURFACE WATER BODY TYPE Pressure, impact and status of water bodies

Map 7: Eco-region as per the European Water Framework Directive

Map A included in ANNEX XI of the WFD (Map 7) provides the geographical contours of WFD Ecoregions for rivers and lakes in Europe. The EU Member States have to consider these Ecoregions for the delineation of surface water bodies. The Ecoregion of the Eastern South part of the Balkans are the following: -

Ecoregion 5: Dinaric western Balkan

-

Ecoregion 6: Hellenic western Balkan

-

Ecoregion 7: Eastern Balkan

Since the Ibër river basin is part of the Danube River Basin District, the Consultant considers that the Ecoregions for this basin is Ecoregion 5, but this criterion is not a discriminative criterion for water body delineation as the whole Ibër basin is encompassed in the same Ecoregion.

Figures 13 and 14 summarize the criteria used to define a water body and to delineate the river stretches into water bodies.

Inside Kosovo, one of the main factors which influence the water body type is the relief which varies considerably on a short distance in Kosovo. There are important differences between the river reaches within: -

mountainous area,

-

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-

the relatively flat large alluvial valley of Sidnica and the Ibër river.

Hence, the slope is an important element to consider (Table 5).

B-

DELINEATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF SURFACE WATER BODIES

Figure 13: Principle for delineation of Water Bodies

Figure 14: Criteria for delineation of the Water Bodies in Kosovo

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Table 5: Main characteristics of sub-basins in Ibër River Basin which are relevant for Water Body delineation Name of the hydrological zone

Surface (km2)

Altitude of the source

Valley width

River length

Slope

(km2)

(m)

(m)

(m)

(%)

Lushta

48, 48

760

500

17242

1, 51%

Patina

28, 3

719

508

7851

2, 69%

Brosova

45, 59

1020

509

17220

2, 97%

Drenica

438, 4

709

529

46091

0, 39%

Lug

56, 13

679

538

13320

1, 06%

Bushanovc

41, 56

704

540

12510

1, 31%

Shtime

186, 1

870

541

25870

1, 27%

Bistrica

172, 7

1569

468

24240

4, 54%

Lumi i Zi

65, 54

1139

510

22320

2, 82%

Llapi

930

1420

511

73790

1, 23%

Prishtevka

103, 7

809

530

25010

1, 12%

Graçanica

157, 9

801

531

31390

0, 86%

Janjeva

73, 64

919

538

20890

1, 82%

Zhegova

67, 2

869

539

21550

1, 53%

Gadime

66, 61

858

541

22650

1, 40%

Right Bank

Left bank

Unit

Other criteria for delineation are the confluence with another river as well as the significant discharge of pollutants in a river which is likely to change the Water Body status.

Table 6 is a proposal of delineation of the Surface Water Bodies taking into account the different criteria mentioned above.

Table 6: Table of the Surface Water Bodies Code of WB

Name of Water bodies

Localisation of water body

KS02a

Degët që furnizojnë Gazivoden

KS02b

Pellg I ëët UJMANIT-Kosovë Lake Gazivoda

KS02c

R. B. Ibri

From Lake- confluence of river Lushte

KS02d

R. B. Ibri

From confluence se lumit Lushte to Kozareve

KS02e

R. B. Ibri

From confluence se lumit Kozareve to border with Serbia

KS204

R. B. Lushta

Source of River Lushta, - confluence with Ibër River

KS202s

R. B. Sitnica

Source of Trepca River, - confluence with Sitnicë River

KS202k

R. B. Sitnica

Source of River Llap, - village Bojqin

KS202m

R. B. Sitnica

Streams which feed Batllaven

KS202n

R. B. Sitnica

Batllava Reservoir

KS202p

R. B. Sitnica

From Lake Batllava- to confluence Llap River

KS202q

R. B. Sitnica

River Llap, From village Bajqinc- confluence with Sitnicë River

Lake I Gazivodes

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KS202g

R. B. Sitnica

River Drenica, from Sourcei- confluenceë Verbicë

KS20h

R. B. Sitnica

River Drenica, from confluenceës në Verbicë - confluence with Sitnicë

KS202c

R. B. Sitnica

Streams feeding Reservoir Badovc

KS20d

R. B. Sitnica

Lake I Badovcit

KS202e

R. B. Sitnica

From Lake -confluence with Sitnicë river

KS202j

R. B. Sitnica

River Prishtevka, from Source to - confluence në Sitnicë

KS202a

R. B. Sitnica

River Sitnica, From Sourceit- confluence të Carraleves

KS202b

R. B. Sitnica

KS202f

R. B. Sitnica

KS202i

R. B. Sitnica

River Carraleva, From Source to- confluence with Sitnicë+River Gadimes, Sourceconfluence with Sitnicë+ River Sitnica from confluencenë Carralevë- confluence with Sllavisë River River Sitnica, from confluence with Sllavise River to–confluence with River Drenica River River Sitnica, from confluence with Drenices to confluence with Llapi River

KS202r

R. B. Sitnica

River Sitnica, from confluence with Llapit to confluence with Sitnicës në Ibër

Map 8: Delineation of Surface Water Bodies (Source: Water Department and SCE/OIEau consortium 2010)

LEGEND: River basin of the surface water body KSO2xx Surface water body and its code Border of the Ibër River Basin

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C1)

DELINEATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF GROUNDWATER BODIES ICMM GEOLOGICAL FILES PROCESSING In Ibër River basin the following methodology was used to identify the location and boundaries of the GWB: 1) The geological and hydrogeological maps from the Independent Commission for Mines and Minerals (ICMM) were processed (pdf and ArcGIS shape).

Within the Ibër river basin, ICMM ArcGIS geological files include 144 geological layer polygons describing the geological stratigraphy.

The ICMM hydro geological map provides the following information: - aquifer types (porous/intergranular porosity, fissured porosity, mixed porosity and aquicludes). To simplify, the consultant replaced this categories by the following ones: medium-high K, medium-low K, fissuredlow K, carbonates, mixed K and aquicludes - hydraulic conductivity (K).

2) Processing was carried to separate the Ibër River basin from the other area.

2)

PRESENTATION OF CENTRAL KOSOVO GEOLOGY The ICMM geological map provides a geological cross section over the Ibër basin, as shown in Figure 15. The Kosovo geology is characterised by a variety of geological formations ranging from old crystalline Proterozoic to youngest Quaternary age, comprising sedimentary and magmatic rocks together with rather less frequent metamorphic rocks.

The Ibër basin geology includes: a) Quaternary and Tertiary alluvium sediments next to the main rivers (Ibër, Lepenc, Drenica, Stenica). The ICMM geological section (Figure 15) suggests that these alluvium might be up to 1000 m thick in the Western part. However, the confrontation of these geological cross-sections with those done by J. M. Ashworth for the hydrogeological study of the Drini basin, suggests that the thickness of the alluvium bed may be much smaller.

The Quaternary-age alluvium sediments occur next to the river channel and older Tertiary-aged sediments are located on adjoining terraces. b) Sedimentary rocks (Upper to lower Cretaceous) in the North-Western, North-Eastern, Western part, and South-Western part of the Ibër basin. The sedimentary rocks which surround the alluvium bed are from the Upper to Lower Cretaceous. They belong to the Central and External Vardar subzones. Compression tectonics due to subduction-collision mechanisms transformed the basins and platforms into folded and thrust zones in the late stage of the orogenic transformation. Early Cretaceous ―pre-flysch‖ is composed of fossiliferous clastic rocks, which are overlain by Upper Cretaceous carbonate followed by mainly sandy-silty flysch sequences. A layer is underneath of the main alluvium deposits (Stenica River). This sequence of rock layer is at the origin of the confined aquifer composed by a sedimentary melange from Upper Cretaceous. The flysch sediments partly cover the ophiolites belt of the Vardar zone. c) Igneous rock (Pliocene to Middle Jurassic) in the North, around Mitrovica and Leposavic. The South-Western part and the North-Eastern part are composed by Pliocene to Oligocene rock which are mainly andesite, page 56/211

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pyroclastic rock and basalt. For the Northern and Southern part, the geological layer are from the upper to Middle Jurassic volcanism, and composed mainly by peridodite, dunite and serpentinite. d) Metamorphic rock in the Western part (Çiçavica Triassic unit), separating the Drenica River basin from the Ibër River basin. All the non-alluvium sediment lithology belong to the mountain area. The Çiçavica Triassic unit is composed mainly by metamorphic rock (Triassic to Paleozoic), and other volcanic series from Jurassic. Those Triassic formations rest upon a paleozoic formation composed by meta-sandstone, phyllites, sericite schists and quartz schists, which itself rests upon peridotite and dunite bedrock.

Creation of a simplified hydro geological map Using this detailed geological GIS file, a new simplified hydrogeological map (Map 9) was created highlighting major geological units, and their hydraulics characteristics that predominate at surface and might extend to some considerable depth. (There is no easily accessible information on hydrogeological layer). This map provided key information for the delineation of the Ibër Basin into a number of GWBs.

3)

DELINEATION OF THE GROUND WATER BODIES (GWB) The delineation of the Ibër River Basin into groundwater bodies was carried out using the following method the areas a particular hard-rock was predominant were grouped into a similar facies.

Through this method 12 GWBs were identified. These bodies were subdivided into 4 rock types: alluvial, sedimentary, igneous, and metamorphic. The physical characteristics of these GWBs are shown in Table 7. It should be noted that these subdivisions are provisional and will change as more data are collected and interpreted.

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Figure 15: Schematic Geological Cross-Section across Central Kosovo (Source ICMM)

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Map 9: Simplified hydrogeology in the Ibër River Basin

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Map 10: Proposed Ground Water Bodies in the Ibër River Basin in Kosovo

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Table 7: Characteristics of proposed Ground Water Bodies in the Ibër Basin GWB

GWBody No.

1

1 to 3

2

3

4

4

Dominant Period

Quaternary to Tertiary

Quaternary to Tertiary

Quaternary to Tertiary

Lower Cretaceous

Dominant Aquifer

Alluvium

Alluvium

Alluvium

Sedimentary Rock

Hydraulic Characteristic

Main Lithology

Minor Lithology

Gravel, sand and Silt

Sandstone, limestone, conglomerate, meta sediments, schists

Gravel, sand and Silt

Sandstone, silstone, marlstone, conglomerate, igneous rock, metacarbonate

Gravel, sand, silt, clay

Sandstone, siltstone, conglomerate, partly marlstone (flysch)

High to low intergranular porosity and permeability (K)

194

Sandstone, siltstone, conglomerate, partly marlst

Conglomerate, sandstone, limestone, marlstone, meta sedimentary silicate rock, igneous rock, serpentinite, schist, marble

Regionally an aquitard with low K-values

659

High to medium intergranular porosity and permeability (K), locally karst.

High to medium intergranular porosity and permeability (K), locally karst, and fissured low-K values

Area (Km²)

Description

981

Unconsolidated Quaternary-aged alluvial sediments occur next to the river channels. Older Tertiary-aged (Pliocene and Miocene) sediments are located on adjoining terraces. The older sediments may have lower hydraulic conductivity (K) and Dual permeability.

292

These groundwater bodies are likely to have the largest groundwater potential in the Ibër River Basin. Groundwater levels are typically close to the surface (static level around 5 m bg River) and so this body is also likely to be at significant risk from human activity (pressures).

The GWB n°1 alluvial aquifer is uncertain by Triassic-aged volcanic sedimentary series at depth. An artesian aquifer is noted in the most central part of this GWB. About the GWB n°2 the underneath rock is composed by sedimentary rock (flysch) from upper Cretaceous.

With the surrounded geological setting of the GWB n°3, we may suppose that it rests upon lower Cretaceous sedimentary rock.

The main lithology is from Lower Cretaceous, composed by sandstone, siltstone, and conglomerate with a dip of bedding around 50°. This layer is support by, on the north Eastern part, a cenozoic magmatic layer laid down on a neoproterozic layer, which is outcropped at the limit of the Ibër basin. According to the ICMM hydrogeological map, the pyroclastic rock must be a fissured-low K aquifer. Locally, the river bed involves the presence of alluvium sediment which is aquifer.

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GWB

6

7

8

9

GWBody No.

6

7

8

9a

Main Lithology

Minor Lithology

Hydraulic Characteristic

Sedimentary Rock

Sandstone, limestone, marlstone (flysch)

Greenshist, phyllite, mudstone, cherty limestone, meta sedimentary silicate rock, igneous rock

Regionally an aquitard with locally mediumhigh K-values, karst and fissured porosity

297

Upper to Lower Cretaceous

Sedimentary Rock

Conglomerate, sandstone, siltstone

Limestone, marlstone, chert, meta sedimentary silicate rock, igneous rock

Regionally an aquitard with locally fissured low K-values

313

Triassic to Paleozoic

Meta sedimentary Metamorphic silicate rock, Rock meta sandstone

Igneous rock

Regionally an aquitard with locally fissuredlow K-values

Sandstone, siltstone, conglomerate, marlstone, volcanic sedimentary series

Regionally fissured-low Kvalues with some aquitard part

Dominant Period

Upper Cretaceous

Upper to Middle Jurassic

Dominant Aquifer

Igneous Rock

Peridotite, dunite, serpentinite

Area (Km²)

Description

The Drin-Ivanicki sediment rock made of conglomerate, sandstone, limestone and marlstone. These sediments are aquiclud. On the West, there are some metasediment from Paleozoic, Trias, and Jurassic. The cherty limestone from Trias is karstified and composed locally an aquifer, like the metasediment composed a fissured-lox K aquifer. As well, river sediment involved the presence of alluvium sediment which is locally aquifer.

The main lithology is from Lower Cretaceous, composed by sandstone, siltstone, and conglomerate with a dip of bedding around 50°. Intrusion of Jurassic magmatic event occurs (basalt, serpentinite). Every lithology is aquiclud, except the serpentinite which composed a fissured-low K aquifer. As well, river sediment involved the presence of alluvium sediment which is locally aquifer.

225

This GWB is composed by the Çiçavica unit (complex of Triassic, paleozoic and Jurassic meta-sedimentary and volcanic rock) and other layer from Drin-Ivanicki sediment rock. The Jurassic serpentinite is a fissure-low K aquifer.

175

These two Jurassic volcanic origin GWB are aquifer with fissured-low K. The aquiclud part is composed by sedimentary and other volcanic series, on the west part for 9a, and east part for 9b.

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GWB

GWBody No.

9b

10a

Dominant Period

Upper to Middle Jurassic

Pliocene to Oligocene

Dominant Aquifer

Main Lithology

Igneous Rock

Igneous Rock

Minor Lithology

Hydraulic Characteristic

Area (Km²)

Peridotite, dunite, serpentinite

Andesite

Regionally fissured-low Kvalues with some aquifer part

180

Andesite, pyroclastic rock, basalt

Greenschist, phyllite, mudstone, conglomerate, meta-sedimentary silicate rock

Regionally an aquifer with locally fissured low K-values, medium-low K and karst

Andesite, pyroclastic rock, basalt

Sandstone, siltstone, conglomerate, marlstone, latite, alluvium, peridotite, dunite, schist

Regionally aquifer, with locally mediumhigh K-values and fissured-low K-values

10

10b

Pliocene to Oligocene

Igneous Rock

Description

239

The Oligocene-Pliocene volcanism made the substratum of these GWB. Most of surface of those ones is aquiclud.

For 10a, This volcanism is mixed with ones from Trias and Jurassic, as well aquiclud. Aquifer parts occur locally from small outcrops, which are meta sedimentary rock (Trias), sedimentary rock (Cretaceous) Carbonates Trias) or Alluvium (Miocene).

407

About 10b, the aquifer are made of by the Jurassic volcanic layers (peridotite, serpentinite, dunite, which constitute fissure-low K aquifer) and by the alluvium along the Ibër river channel (medium-high K)

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I.3. PRESSURE AND IMPACT ON WATER BODIES A-

IMPACT ON FLOW REGIME OF ABSTRACTION OR REGULATION

Map 11: Localization of the main reservoirs, rivers and uptake of water for uses

Legend:

(Source SCE/OIEau 2010)

In order to assess the impact on flow regime of abstraction and regulation, the situation before dam construction and after dam construction should be compared. The main impact is the change of regime from a highly oxygenated river stream into a lake with calm water and a risk of accumulation of nutrients such as phosphorus and nitrogen. The activities and human settlements around the Batllava and Badovce reservoir have already caused an impact. In August 2010 the SCE/OIEau team observed the development of macrophytes near the banks of the Batllava reservoir suggesting partially eutrophic (over-nourished) condition.

Another hydrological pressure is the change of flow velocity. This change is due to the operation of the turbines which are starting and stopping every day. The turbines function around 4 to 5 hours a day for electricity production. These sudden changes in the flow velocity have an impact on macro-invertebrates development.

Finally another possible impact is the reduction of the flood occurring downstream which might have an impact on wet zones. However, this impact is not very significant compared, for example, to the high pollution load discharge in Sidnica and Ibër River. page 64/211

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B1)

DESCRIPTION OF MORPHOLOGICAL ALTERATION RIVER BED EXTRACTION The construction boom in Kosovo and the difficulty to revise permits have led to massive extraction of gravel near and even inside the river bed in many places in Kosovo. This is generating important erosion of the bank and high turbidity during flood events.

2)

DUMPING OF MATERIAL IN RIVERBEDS In many instances, the construction materials and all different kind of solid waste are being dumped in uncultivated areas near rivers, leading to pollution from metallic components and oils into the river bank soils and in the river. Beside the aesthetic pollution, such dumping is increasing the cost of future restoration of rivers for productive purposes.

3)

OBSTACLE TO LONGITUDINAL AND LATERAL CIRCULATION The dams which were constructed to store water for irrigation, drinking water and power generation create a barrier for fish migration and a change in the oxygenation of water. However, the upper basin of the Ibër River is very far from the sea and there are other obstacles downstream which affect the migratory species.

Longitudinal obstacles might be locally significant especially in a rather nonpolluted place but there is no such information on this aspect as there is no attention given to such issue. As a matter of fact, in many instances the reduction of the high level of pollution is considered as the priority.

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C-

IMPACT OF LAND USE PATTERNS AND POPULATION DENSITIES

Map 12: Land use of the Ibër basin (Corine Land cover)

Table 8: Land use by Corine land cover category in the upper Ibër river basin.

Land use category Grassland Cropland Mixed Forest Evergreen Forest Water Wooded Grassland Bare Ground Urban Built Deciduous Forest Total for Ibër upper basin

km2 1364 1517 1634 462 17 38 33 37 5101

% 27% 30% 32% 9% 0% 1% 1% 1% 100%

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Graph 1: Land use in the upper Ibër river basin

1)

LAND USE AND POPULATION As could be seen on Map 12, the forest area (42 %) and the grassland (27 %) occupy the sloppy land of the mountainous and hilly areas. The relatively flat areas between Mitrovica Prishtina and Shtime on the banks and alluvium terraces of the Sidnica River as well as the two other cultivated areas around Llap and the Drenica rivers are more populated. The density of population varies from around 30 to 40 inhab/km2 in the Ibër valley of the North to around 200 to 300 inhab/km2 in the plain (not including Prishtina and Mitrovica).

2)

IMPACT OF CHANGES IN THE FOREST AREAS Deforestation, fires and tree diseases have an impact on the forestry cover and on the stability of the soils. Erosion in some part of mountainous areas also increases with unsustainable practices of wood cutting.

3)

CHANGES IN LAND USE DUE TO URBANIZATION AND THEIR IMPACT Many houses are constructed on farm land and even within the irrigated perimeter. Houses and buildings in many villages and towns are constructed on pieces of land without any consideration of existing urban plans when they exist.

Land registration documents have not been left by the Serbian administrators when they left Kosovo at the end of the 1999 war. A process to re-establish the cadastre is taking place, but, in the meantime, the ownership of some pieces of land is still unsecure.

Over the last ten years urban areas and surfaces used for road construction have extended considerably. As a result, a large amount of cropland has been converted into non-permeable surfaces. The runoff of rain water on these surfaces has increased dramatically and no proper environmental protection has been established to avoid contamination of resources by polluted runoff waters.

As a result of this unregulated urbanization process and of the construction boom, a percentage of cropland and irrigated land is lost for agriculture. The Consultant has estimated for simulation purposes that the percentage of irrigated surface lost in irrigated perimeters to be around 2 percent of the total. In many places the new constructions do not have an adequate sewage system.

As a result, near these pollution sources, the groundwater in the alluvial plain is contaminated. This is, hence, a public health issue. The use of water from wells

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and springs without proper treatment for human consumption can increase waterborne diseases.

D-

SIGNIFICANT POINT AND DIFFUSE POLLUTION SOURCES The pressure on the water bodies varies according their location and type: -

Water bodies in mountainous areas Water bodies in Piedmont area Water bodies in alluvium area

When the soil and the sediment are permeable, the groundwater is directly affected by the pollution from households, mining and activities including disposal of material from which pollutants or dangerous substances can leak.

One of the main sources of pollution is the old sewerage collecting used water from households and building in main towns such as Mitrovica and Prishtina, but also in smaller towns.

As the sewers often leak, the used water is percolating into the soil and finally into the groundwater underneath.

The use of pesticide and fertilizers is also locally a source of pollution. It is difficult to assess the extent of the use of these substances as there is very little systematic collection of information on this matter.

The Water Department has inventoried all the so-called ‗operators‘ which are causing pressure on the Water Bodies. This database includes different businesses and industries, socio-economic activities which might have an impact on water. However, plenty of data are missing to use this information to assess the impact on the Water Bodies. There is no regular measurement of the pollution charges, and it is often difficult to have a good idea of the extent of the impact of pollution on water bodies.

Maps 13 and 14 show significant pollution pressure on the water bodies in particular hot spots areas where pollution resulting from historical or current industrial activity is high.

On the bare ground urban surfaces, during rainy events, runoff is polluted by all different kinds of substances coming from vehicles and other substances. In addition, solid waste is dumped near the river beds in great quantity.

Picture 1 Power plant in Obilic and Sidnica plain (Credit F. Baudry)

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Map 13: Land use map of the Ibër River Basin in Kosovo

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Map 14: Hot spots for water quality in Ibër River Basin in Kosovo

Legend Hot spot for water quality River Basin & its contours Rivers Road

(Source UNDP 2010)

Before the 1999 war many industrial plants were discharging untreated or insufficiently treated wastewater into the Sidnica and Ibër rivers. Many of these companies have been closed by 2010. This had a positive impact as it reduced the pollution load discharged into the river. However, the ones which are still functioning and the new business and companies that are built generally do not have proper wastewater treatment plants or pollution prevention facilities.

As a result, in many places the soil is heavily polluted due to this historical and current pollution. In industrial areas and dumping sites, there are large deposits of material containing heavy metals or other dangerous substances.

This situation is particularly alarming near the power plant Kosovo A and B and in the Mitrovica industrial area, where there are large deposits of mines and industrial leftover or deposits (mines, chemical industry, zinc-metallurgy). page 70/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 9: Polluted soil and point source of industrial pollution (Source KEPA) Type of activities – Historical or current source of pollution

Location

Paper Company

Ferizaj,

Oil production

Lipjan,

Metal production

Janjeva,

Mining of Magnezit ―Golesh

Magure,

Textile

Fush Kosova,

Dairy production

Fush Kosova,

Manufacture

Vushtrri

Cobble treatment power plants

Obiliq,

textile production

Kastriot,

chemical industry

Mitrovica

zinc electrolysis,

Mitrovica

Product of lead batteries

Mitrovica

Trebca Mines

Mitrovica

Measurements carried out in the Ibër River at different locations in the town of Mitrovica show that the sediment contamination for Lead and Zinc exceed the PEL (Probable effect level- see Table 10).

These thresholds and the Yugoslav classification used are not the one used by the WFD, but Table 10 provides indications of the level of contaminations for heavy metals which are dangerous substances for health. The red colour indicates that the level of contamination probably has an effect on organisms when it is exposed to it. The orange colour shows that when it is ingested by organisms it has an effect.

TEC/Threshold Effects Concentration: A concentration in media (surface water, sediment, soil) to which a plant or animal is exposed, above which some effect (or response) will be produced and below which it will not.

TEL/Threshold Effects Level: A chemical concentration in some item (dose) that is ingested by an organism, above which some effect (or response) will be produced and below which it will not. This item is usually food, but can also be soil, sediment, or surface water that is incidentally (accidentally) ingested as well.

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Table 10: Level of contamination of sediments in the Ibër River in Mitrovica - Source: Ground water pollution in Mitrovica and surroundings Sampling Period February May August November

Lead μg/g) I-1 20. 5 21. 5 21. 8 20. 3

Zinc (μg/g) I-2 75. 45 78. 35 79. 45 73. 25

I-3 114. 3 115. 45 116. 8 113. 25

I-4 133. 8 134. 3 135. 45 133. 05

I-1 55. 8 56. 2 56. 05 55. 9

I-2 188. 3 189. 4 190. 1 187. 7

Cadmium (μg/g) I-3 288. 6 270. 4 278. 7 275. 3

I-4 325. 4 321. 5 331. 2 338. 7

I-1 0. 23 0. 24 0. 25 0. 22

I-2 0. 49 0. 51 0. 53 0. 5

Copper (μg/g) I-3 3. 95 4. 25 4. 45 4. 35

I-4 5. 35 5. 6 5. 5 5. 25

I-1 7. 05 7. 1 7. 2 6. 9

I-2 25. 4 25. 8 26. 05 28. 35

I-3 69. 7 78. 5 79 67. 2

I-4 79. 5 81. 2 83 80. 5

Value exceeding the Probable Effect Level for the parameter Value exceeding the Threshold Effect Level for the parameter Value under the Threshold Effect Level for the parameter Metal (μg/g)

TEL (Threshold effect level)

PEL (Probable effect level)

Cadmiu m

0. 7

0. 7

Copper

18. 7

108

Lead

30. 2

112

Zinc

124

271

Contribution to Balwois conference 2008 - Mr. Sci. Sami Behrami, Fadil Bajraktari, Nazmi Zogaj

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Pressure from power plant Kosovo A and B The water supply for Kosovo A is taken from the Llap River, flowing near the plant. When the river flow is too low in the summer, water is taken from the IbërLepenc channel. Kosovo B is supplied entirely from the Ibër-Lepenc channel.

Surface water pollution Wastewater from the mines and the A and B power plants is discharged into the Sidnica River.

Kosovo A: The discharge water from mineralization plants is sent to open sedimentation and neutralization basins, which are poorly maintained. Part of the wastewater is discharged directly into the Sidnica River without prior treatment.

Apart from evaporated water from the cooling towers, all wastewater generated at Kosovo A, including industrial and sanitary effluents, is discharged directly into the Sidnica River. Pollutants in the wastewater include fuel, ash, oil, chemical residues and sanitary water.

Kosovo B has wastewater treatment installations for technical water and sanitary wastewater, but they do not operate properly. Acid and alkaline wastewaters generated from ion-exchangers are collected in a settling pond, but part of this water is used to transport ash to the disposal site and water from this pond is also discharged into the Sidnica River.

Other wastewater is led to a small sedimentation basin and from there directly into the Sidnica River without further treatment. These large quantities of wastewater are polluted with ash, oil, chemical residuals, faecal matter and microbes.

All of these contamination levels far exceed EU limits. As a result, the Sidnica River is polluted with heavy metals, suspended solids, sulphate, nitrate, and chlorine. It is in fact the most polluted river in Kosovo and this pollution has an impact on the Ibër River at the confluence.

Groundwater pollution Pressure from agricultural activities As the soils are fertile in the plains and precipitation is relatively abundant for the moment, agricultural activities are well developed in the plains. The high hydraulic conductivity of the soil and sediment increases the risk of contamination of ground waters by fertilizers, especially nitrates or pesticides. However, there are few statistics on quantity and type of substances sprayed or laid over the agricultural land. The depth of the water table is a key factor in this regards.

Pressure from urban areas and households Map 13 displays the land use in the Ibër River basin.

-

GWB n° 1, 2, 3, and a small part of GWB 4 and 10b are mainly covered by cropland,

-

the other GWB are covered by forest and grassland.

Most of the bare ground urban built occurs the GWB n° 1, Mitrovica GWB n° 10b and Podujeve GWB n°3. In the industrial areas, high levels of heavy metals may be found. The current situation (huge urban development) around Prishtina should suggest the highest prudence about groundwater exploitation, and the groundwater quality situation should be carefully monitored.

Domestic wastewater introduce high levels of TDS, BOD, chemical oxygen demand (COD), NO3, Chloride, SO42-, organic chemicals and bacteria into groundwater. page 73/211

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Pressure from Mining activities The main mining and the linked industries are shown on Map 13. The mining activities are dealing with the following elements: -

lead and zinc (6),

-

lignites (2),

-

magnesite and ferronickel (1).

There are as well 3 concentrators, 2 smelters (ferronickel and lead) and 1 refinery (zinc). Lead, zinc, ferro-nickel are extracted from sulphurous ore. The exploitation of sulphurous ore involves an Acid Rock Drainage (ARD) by oxidation of the sulphur ion. The ARD reduction-oxidation process equation is: 2FeS2(s) + 7O2(g) + 2H2O(l) => 2Fe2+(aq) + 4SO42-(aq) + 4H+(aq).

This process generates acidification and a metal and semi-metal release. The concentration of metal and semi-metal reduced states is influenced by the pH. Therefore, it is very important to survey the pH and the physic-chemical status of the water from the exhaust pomp.

Pressure from power generation in Kosovo A and B

Picture 2: Lignite conveyance for Kosovo power plant (Credit F. Baudry Nov 2010) Kosovo A: Runoff water from the ash dumps, and former underground disposal of gasification chemicals polluted the groundwater Kosovo B: Groundwater infiltration from the existing ash dump polluted also the groundwater.

Remediation would require protective pumping to create a hydraulic barrier. Due to the discharge of waste water from the mines and the two power plants3, when flood events occur, the polluted water contaminates the soil close to the river bank which might affect the quality of the crops cultivated in these areas. The groundwater of the alluvial aquifer linked to the Sidnica River is also contaminated and the water from wells is improper for domestic use and even for irrigation.

I.4. RESULTING ECOLOGICAL AND CHEMICAL STATUS OF SURFACE WATER BODIES A-

QUANTITY AND QUALITY OF DATA AVAILABLE The IHMK collected samples in the Sidnica and the Ibër River but the frequency of measurements as well as the unknown degree of confidence that could be 3

idem

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given to these measurements makes it difficult to compare the value from one year to the other.

Quality management in IHMK has improved in recent years for a number of parameters but there is not yet any validation process.

There has not been any regular ground water monitoring in Kosovo for years except for microbiology. The Institute for Public Health carried out analyses which provide an indication on the degree of contamination, especially of wells.

B1)

EVALUATION OF THE STATUS OF SURFACE WATER LIMITATION DUE TO MISSING OR UNRELIABLE INFORMATION During the Yugoslav period a classification system was established and used to assess water quality. This system includes five classes, I being the best and V the worse. Levels IV and V classes are for bad and very bad quality. Class III is also unsatisfactory.

Surveys of the water quality carried out by academics or under other projects provide indications for specific locations of the water quality, however they cannot be used for the evaluation of the Status of the Water Body as per WFD provisions.

Table 11: Chemical analyses in the Ibër River Mitrovica- station Kelmend - from 2003 to 2005 (Source: University of Mitrovica)

Year

Ph

COD

BOD5

NO2

2003

8. 09

20. 9-IV

8. 67-III

0. 50-III

2004

7. 79

48. 6-V

11. 6-IV

2005

7. 88

30. 1-V

4. 19-II

NO3

NH4

Saturat. O2

5. 81- II

3. 26IV

58. 5- IV

0. 26-II

6. 65-II

2. 20IV

83. 8- III

0. 39-III

8. 42- II

4. 22IV

97. 9-II

Table 11 shows clearly this high degree of pollution of the Ibër River in Mitrovica.

The WFD gives much attention to biological indicators as well as to dangerous substances. A monitoring strategy has been proposed to the Water Department and IHMK by the EU-funded Drini River Basin Project. The biological component of this strategy is not yet implemented.

Biological macro-invertebrates indicators were used to assess the status of Sidnica River. This information provided on the status of the several Sidnica River stretches several years ago. These analyses clearly show the impact of urban wastewaters which are discharged in this river. Since then, no systematic biological analyses have been carried out.

2)

WATER BODIES UNDER LOW PRESSURE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS The observations and measurements carried out in the Drini River basin in 2008 and 2009 have shown that in the mountainous areas where the river water is well oxygenized and anthropogenic pressure is low, the water body status is good.

Other measures carried out by a previous project in the mountainous area of the Ibër River Basin provided similar results.

Therefore, as a preliminary assessment, the Water Bodies located in mountainous area under low anthropogenic pressure could be considered as achieving the WFD good status.

3)

WATER BODY UNDER MEDIUM PRESSURE page 75/211

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Villages and fish farms in the Piedmont near springs coming from mountains are not well equipped to prevent pollution impacting the rivers. Therefore, the status of the Water Bodies after several villages or fish farms could be considered as not reaching the good status.

The reservoirs themselves are under medium anthropogenic pressure as there are villages surrounding them. The insufficient consideration to the reduction of the organic, phosphorus and nitrogen pollution may lead to eutrophication. The development of macrophytes can be already observed in the Batllava reservoir.

4)

WATER BODY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE In 2008 and 2009 biological analyses which were carried out downstream of towns like Peja and Prizren highlighted that the status of the water bodies deteriorate dramatically due to urban pollution. After these towns the river ecological status is very low.

It was also observed that when there is abundant clean water feeding the river the ecological status improves slightly.

C-

STATUS OF THE GROUNDWATER There is no monitoring network for groundwater quality. Therefore, the land use map, as well as the information on the hot spots for water quality, provides information about the possible risks of contamination of the groundwater.

The quantitative pressure is not high on the water bodies since there is sufficient surface water. The qualitative status, however, is likely not to be good for the groundwaters under high pressure such as the GWB 1, 2, 3 and 10a and 10b.

It is important that a programme of surveillance be implemented to gain scientific knowledge of the quality and quantity of groundwater bodies and their possible use.

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Map 15: Simplified Hydrogeology in Ibër Basin, springs and boreholes (source ICMM-WD)

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PART IV TOWARD WATER SECURITY IN CENTRAL KOSOVO 2010-2035 I.1. SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS - KEY INDICATORS A1)

SCOPE OF THE ANALYSIS – WATER SECURITY OBJECTIVES WATER SECURITY CONCEPT In this study, we considered Water Security as a policy including the following objectives:

2)

-

Ensure on a regular basis a degree of reliability and continuity for bulk water supply, avoiding water shortages during dry years or a series of dry years.

-

Ensure that in case of emergency due to the damage of a key water infrastructure there are alternative resources, and parts of the system still function, which could reduce dramatic socio-economic costs.

-

Ensure that Water Security comes at a fair price and is in line with sustainable financial management and environment protection.

FLEXIBILITY OF WATER ALLOCATION To achieve these objectives, in order to be able to face unforeseen situations, it is important to develop flexible systems of bulk water supply, including for instance alternative sources of clean bulk water. It is also possible to interconnect existing systems and to take steps to avoid disruption of conveyance in case of important natural and human damages to the systems.

3)

EQUITABLE AND RATIONAL USE ESPECIALLY FOR INTERNATIONAL WATERS Improved relationships are critical to water security. Ibër River is an international river, and in the future there might be opportunities to develop the Gazivoda water use in the neighbouring countries. It is important that international legislation procedure be applied. Water use in one country should not harm people and users in riparian countries. The international principle of ‗equitable and rational use of water‗ should be used for negotiation whenever appropriate.

Through such a process, practical and realist rules can be agreed on.

4)

HUMAN HEALTH HAZARD REDUCTION (IRRIGATION WATER) The Protocol on Water and Health, signed in 1999, requires to establish national and local targets for the quality of drinking water. As many surface water and groundwater in the Project area are contaminated by micro-organisms and are a vector for diseases, the improvement of the water quality will provide immediate socio-economic benefits by reducing the diseases occurrence especially among children. In addition, contaminated sources of water for irrigation are a health hazard which may generate difficulties for agricultural product commercialisation.

Food safety is a sensitive issue among people and media reports on disease linked to unhealthy irrigated food can be damaging for export.

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B-

ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW - KEY WATER USES WITHIN IBËR RIVER BASIN The total 2010 demand for bulk water in the Ibër River Basin is created by five major bulk water use categories. As presented in Figure 18, there are four major uses corresponding to socio-economic activities but one is related a special user -- the River ecosystem. Its water demand corresponds to the flow needed to protect the ecosystem and the uses downstream (environmental flow, or ‗E-flow‘)

Figure 16: Environmental flow and sectors using water

The assessment has to take into account several factors: - the future conditions: change in the capture and conveyance system, the population and economic growth, climatic conditions - the possible result of these changes in the balance between the supply and the demand in several places which can be analyzed through several methods.

One of the aims of the work is to identify „hot spots‘ presenting a risk of water shortage under possible future conditions. In this regards, the possible continuous degradation of the water resource quality should not be overlooked.

The next step is to anticipate such changes by taking appropriate measures in order: - to secure water supply for strategic sectors - to contribute to the socio-economic development by improving security for investments The method includes the following steps:

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

Delineation of bulk water supply systems as input into the WEAP simulation model,



Baseline scenario building with WEAP, including the evaluation of the range of values that parameters can take,



Scenarios building considering possible future conditions. These are parameters with the WEAP model including assumptions on future conditions and climate change,



Evaluation of the impact of possible saving measures to alleviate the risk of bulk water shortage,



Identification through a grid of analysis the priority measures taking into account the general objectives of water security.

A good understanding of the methods and results of the assessment, of the uncertainties and possible options by those having a good knowledge of the sector is critical for the next steps, which include decision making for measures selection and implementation.

C1)

METHODOLOGY - SCENARIOS BUILDING BASELINE

SCENARIOS AND ASSUMPTIONS)

SCENARIOS

FOR FUTURE

(UNDER

SEVERAL

Once the WEAP model architecture had been set up, the next step was to build a baseline scenario for year 2010 including data (measured and assumed) on the water demand and supply at key locations.

The information and data which was entered into the WEAP model were collected among the Kosovo partners and several other sources.

The demand from the Community Water Supply, from the Agricultural, Energy, Industry & Mines Sectors were estimated on a monthly basis, taking into consideration 2010 conditions.

On the supply side, the data regarding inflow and on the bulk water supply through the existing water capture and conveyance systems were also entered in the model.

2)

SCENARIOS UNDER SEVERAL FUTURE CONDITIONS: “WHAT IF “?

A second step was to use the model to simulate several demand and supply conditions (series of normal years, dry years and very dry years).

The outputs of the model provided indications on the balance between the current supply and the water demand at selected locations for the several scenarios selected.

Finally, the modelling results were useful to identify measures to reduce the risks of shortages. The hot spots where water demand will likely exceed the supply measures can be proposed to remediate this situation. Modelling can be used to test whether the measures are sufficient and efficient.

Presentations was given to the main government stakeholders and to the World Bank, i.a. on 8th September 2010. These meetings allowed to gain consensus for scenarios building by mid-September 2010. page 80/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

In December, the World Bank provided additional technical information for the analysis of Climate Change impact.

3)

SCENARIO BUILDING INTEGRATING KEY PARAMETERS To build the scenarios, data collection and assessment were needed to gain knowledge on the range of value or values to enter in the WEAP model. These include values for the following set of parameters: 

The dates in the future and time lines for which the bulk water balance is assessed under several scenarios.



The supply side parameters including hydrological conditions and climate change impact. Many inputs for the calculation are coming from data series from the 1985 Water Master Plan and other data sources listed in Annex 1. Assumptions were taken (for example, the return rate of water).



The demand side parameters including the several major users identified.

The data inputs are the characteristics of different sectors (agriculture, industry, the connected population), as well as water flows and hydro-meteorological parameters.

Field visits and interviews of key stakeholders were also used as source of information especially to analyse the main factors which can contribute or hamper the development of irrigated agriculture, power plants water use, population consumption in towns and in villages, use of water by public and private companies.

The analyses have taken into consideration the water conveyance for cooling the ―New Kosovo‖ power plant.

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I.2. PERIOD CONSIDERED AND PLANNED ACTIONS Table 12 shows the different periods to consider in scenarios building.

The first period (2010-2020) includes the projects which are planned or are already decided.

The second period (2020-2035) where the uncertainties are high, which covers a period of 15 years from 2020 onwards.

These periods are long enough to finance structural investments which can generate important socio-economic return over this period in terms of better public health, revenues from export business opportunities and created jobs, etc.

The Consultant considered that the future became too uncertain after 25 years and therefore it was decided not to integrate a longer period in the model. It might give misleading results, as from one generation to the other the way of thinking can evolve.

Table 12: Description of the timeline for scenarios building Time line

2010 2010 to 2020 Projects planned

2020

to 2035

Drinking Water Supply Irrigation

Power

Industry or Mines

Prishtina & Mitrovica RWSC

1 000 ha

Kosovo A Kosovo B

Ferronikeli Mine

Increase treatment capacity; New connection for Mitrovica, Prishtina, Vushtri;

Kosovo A Kosovo B Perimeters easily New Kosovo irrigated by Develop optimization of rehabilitation hydro-electricity supply by pumping from one lake to the other

Alternative sources for emergency

Rehabilitation of industrial plants Water demand increase link to business development (conditions for export in the region)

Connection between existing water systems; New storages of medium capacity; Groundwater mobilization;

Increase of demand in Extension through Kosovo B; cities new systems New Kosovo.

Metallurgic factories and New storage manufacturing plants (if market for products exist)

New connections of communities; Connection from Gazivoda lake;

Metallurgic factories and Additional manufacturing plants; groundwater mobilization

Area irrigated = area projected for irrigation (if good market opportunities)

Kosovo B; New Kosovo; Hydroelectricity pumping optimized;

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I.3. SUPPLY SIDE: HYDROLOGY, CLIMATE & WATER RESOURCES A-

HYDRO- METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION

Map 16: Hydrometrical network for the Ibër River Basin in Montenegro and Kosovo

Legend: Kosovo Border Rivers Hydrometric stations Reservoirs

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 13: List of the hydrometrical stations in the Ibër River Basin up to the Border with Serbia (Source IHMK 2010)

Nr

Station

River

Surface(km²)

1

Rozhaj (Montenegro)

Ibër

90

2

Ribariç (Montenegro)

Ibër

850 (828)

3

Gazivodë (akumu)

Ibër

1060

4

Prelez

Ibër

1109

5

Leposaviç

Ibër

4701

6

DobriDub (Lismir)

Sitnicë

1314

7

Nedakoc

Sitnicë

2590

8

Drenica

Drenicë

320

9

Prishtina

Prishtevkë

53

10

Shtime

Shtimlanka

11

Lypjan

Sitnica

5540. 4

12

Vragoli

Sitnica

942. 4

13

Prilepnica(Akumu)

Graçanica

105. 4

14

Lluzhan

Llap

694

15

Milloshevë

Llap

923

As can be seen in Map 16 and in Table 13, there are two stations in Montenegro.

Table 14 shows the availability of daily measurement of the water level at hydrometrical stations. However, only for Prelez, Leposavic and Nedakoc stations long good-quality series of data exist for monthly flow measurements. These measurements were carried out from 1960 to 1986.

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1997

1996

1991-1995

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

1979

1978

1977

1976

1975

Leposavic 1939

1974

Ibër

1973

Mitrovicë

1972

Ibër

1971

Prelez

1970

Ibri

1969

1950

1968

Ibri I ri

1967

Ibri

1966

1957

1965

Drenas

1964

Drenica

1963

Miloshevë 1957

1962

Llap

1961

1952

1960

Llushan

1959

Llap

1958

1st Year

1957

Station

1956

River

1955

Table 14: Availability of the Hydrological regarding the daily measurement of the water level in the rivers of the upper Ibër River Basin

1942

Prishtevka Prishtina Ibri

Ribariq

Sitnica

Dobridub

Sitnica

Dobosel

Sitnica

Nedakoc

Data

Missing data

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B1)

PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE, EVAPORATION PRECIPITATION

Map 17: Rainfall stations of the Institute of Hydrometeorology of Kosovo

Map 18: Map of the annual precipitation in the Ibër River Basin in Kosovo

Around 800 mm Around 700 mm Around 600 mm

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This area is characterised by a dry climate and a total annual precipitation of about 600 mm per year (Source ICMM).

Map 19: Range of temperature and altitude in Kosovo (Source IKMIK and USAID Kosovo Agricultural Opportunities Strategy) Although there are many gauging stations in Kosovo, since the year 2000, there is very little rainfall data. One reason is that the observers who collect the data on site are not regularly paid by the HMIK.

2)

TEMPERATURE The climate of Kosovo is predominantly continental. Summers are warm and winters cold. It has Mediterranean and Alpine influences. The average temperature ranges from +30 °C (summer) to –10 °C (winter). However, due to unequal elevations in certain parts of the country, there are differences in temperature and rainfall distribution according to the relief.

The climatic area of Kosovo (Rrafshi i Kosovës), which includes the Ibër-Valley, is influenced by continental air masses. For this reason, in this part of the country, winters are colder with temperatures down to –10 °C and sometimes to –26 °C. Summers are very hot, with average temperatures of 20 °C, sometimes up to 37 °C. 4The mean values over several years of the temperature before 1985 in the several main towns of the Ibër River Basin are presented in Table 15.

4Source

ICMM

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Table 15: Mean temperature in the main towns of the Ibër River Basin Station

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Prishtinë

-1.

11

1. 2

4. 56

10.

03

14.

58

17.

98

19.

92

19.

92

15.

96

Podujevë

-1.

84

0. 6

3. 88

9. 43

14

17.

48

19.

45

19.

22

Mitrovicë

-0.

87

1. 48

4. 85

10.

14

14.

78

18.

06

20.

13

In Ibër basin

-1.

27

1. 09

4. 43

9. 87

14.

45

17.

84

19.

83

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

10.

52

6. 16

0.

95

10. 1

15.

39

10. 1

5. 39

0. 6

9. 5

19.

87

15.

81

10.

37

5. 9

1.

31

10. 2

19.

67

15.

72

10.

33

5. 82

0.

95

(Source: 1985 Water Master Plan)

Graph 2: Mean temperature in the main towns of the Ibër River Basin

Mean Temperature (°C) in the main towns of the Iber River Basin 25 Prishtinë Podujevë 20

Mitrovicë In Ibër basin

15

10

5

0 Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

-5

3)

EVAPORATION The 1985 Water master Plan (Book on Climate) provides evaporation values. (see Table 16) For the Ibër River Basin the data were registered at two stations, Prishtinë and Pëja, for the four reservoirs: Gazivoda and Predvorica on Ibër River, Batllava on Llap River and Badovc on Graqanica River. The values are in mm.

Table 16: Evaporation in several stations in Prishtina (Source 1985 Water Master Plan) Station Reservoirs

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Prishtinë Batllava, Badovc

0

0

0

104

133

150

175

179

125

87

30

0

Pëja Gazivoda, Predvorica

17

34

70

128

159

174

184

204

110

75

34

16

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Year

9. 9

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 3: Monthly mean evaporation in the Gazivoda Reservoir

Monthly mean Evaporation ( mm) in the Gazivoda Reservoir 250

200

150

100

50

0 Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Jun.

Jul.

Aug.

Sep.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

C-

ANALYSIS OF RUNOFF AND BASIN YIELD

Map 20: Hydrological zones for analysis of the runoff and basin yield in Ibër River Basin in Kosovo and Montenegro

Hydrological stations

LEGEND Sub-river basin River Reservoir Hydrometric stations

The yield of the sub-basin was calculated and served as inputs parameters in the WEAP model.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 4: Inter-annual variation of mean annual flow at Ribariç station (Ibër) 1948-1978

Interannual variation of mean annual flow (m3/s) at Ribariç station (Iber)

25 20 15 10 5

1978

1977

1976

1975

1974

1973

1972

1971

1970

1969

1968

1967

1966

1965

1964

1963

1962

1961

1960

1959

1958

1957

1956

1955

1954

1953

1952

1951

1950

1949

1948

0

Graph 5: Frequency – flow rate curve for the annual flow for the period 1948 to 1978

Variation of the mean annual flow ( Unit m3/s) over a period of 30 years 1948-78 at the Ribariç station

25 20 15 10 5 0

10 %

19 %

52 %

81 %

90 %

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 6: Mean monthly flow in the Ribariç and Prelez stations (period 1948 to 1978)

Mean Monthly flow for the stations Ribariç and Prelez 1948 -1978 upper Iber Basin (Unit :m3/s )

Ribariç Prelez

35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Graph 7: Monthly flow at Ribariç station for dry, wet and medium year during the period 1948- 1978

Monthly flow ( Unit m3/s) at the Ribariç station (Iber river) for dry - wet and medium year during the period 1948-1978 45 40

Year 1951 - dry year

35

Year 1955 - wet year

30

Year 1969 - medium year

25 20 15 10 5 0

D- Jan CFeb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

L I

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E-

CLIMATE CHANGE POSSIBLE IMPACT The World Bank has the aim to gain insights into potential future hydrology and to establish a common platform of information on the behaviour of key hydrologic drives across World Bank regions at an appropriate scale for policy and investment decisions.

A first work was presented in the report November 2009 Water and Climate Change: Understanding the Risks and Making Climate-Smart Investment Decisions, World Bank (Alavian et. al., 2009).

In December 2010, a Methodology Report regarding the Expansion of Database of Climate and Water Data based on work done for Water and Climate was provided to the team.

Reflecting that climate change adaptation is entering more and more into country assistance strategies, infrastructure studies etc. More accurate additional information at the scale of the country, basin or country basin unit was produced.

The specific objective was to contribute to an enhanced representation of climate change data and of hydrologic indicators. The December 2010 Climate Change study provides indications on the probable increase of Temperature and Precipitation in the regions of the world. From these indications, the probable increase or decrease of several parameters such as runoff, groundwater, precipitation, irrigation deficit, etc. were estimated through modelling (Graph 9).

The information should be taken with care as the uncertainty grows when the data are used on a small part of territory as shown in Graph 8.

Graph 8: Modelling Spatial Scale and Uncertainty

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 9: Box with the variation of hydrological parameters due to climate change for 2030-2039

The impact of the Climate change on water availability was taken as a 25% - 50 % decrease of the runoff and inflow in reservoirs. A function in the WEAP models enables to reflect such situation (dry year and very dry year period).

I.4. WATER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE A1)

THE 2010 WATER SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE OVERALL DESCRIPTION OF THE WATER CAPTURE & BULK WATER CONVEYANCE The Ibër River Basin bulk water capture and conveyance was created over the past several decades, primarily during the Yugoslav era, through the realization of infrastructure to capture available water resources and render them accessible for use through a conveyance system including pipes, pumps and the Ibër Lepenc Canal.

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Figure 17: Infrastructure to capture water in the Ibër River Basin

The capture mechanisms consist of three surface water dams/reservoirs (in three separate sub-basins) plus various wells/well fields located throughout the basin especially in the plain.

Therefore, according to the different locations of these water resources, it is necessary to assess the bulk water resources in terms of these separate capture mechanisms and the associated river sub-basins.

The water supply resources and the demand sites were grouped in three almost independent systems in order to easily assess the bulk water balance and the security vulnerabilities: 1. System 1: Gazivoda and Predvorica reservoirs, Ibër Lepenc Channel and the water supply for Mitrovica (drinking water supply), irrigations units and industry (power plants and mining).

2. System 2: Batllava and Badovc reservoirs with Prishtina drinking water supply and socio-economical activities.

3. System 3: Water supply of small towns and villages from groundwater and springs.

Systems 1, 2 and 3 will be tested under modelling activities in order to define if the bulk water security in these systems is achieved or, if it is not, to identify which measures should be implemented to cover the needs (population needs as well as agriculture, industry and mining).

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Graph 10: Variations of the water inflow in Gazivoda reservoir (Source: 1985 Water Master Plan – IL Company) Monthly Range in Natural Water Supply Iber-Lepenc System (Mm3/mnth) 140 120

100 80 60

Best Month

40

Worst Month

20 0 Source: COWI Report

The water inflow in the Gazivoda dam is sufficient to fill the reservoir in one year; however, the inflow is prone to decreases during the summer, which is the irrigation season, at that period the level of the reservoir decreases especially during dry year.

The Ibër-Lepenc Hydro System includes key components of (based on key information in the COWI report, 2008, and Director of IL Canal Company): a) Gazivoda Dam/Reservoir, Hydropower Station - water resources are captured by Gazivoda Dam, released through a pipe to a hydropower station including two 18 m3/s turbines. The water coming out of the turbines flows into a second (buffer) reservoir - Predvorica Reservoir. b) A 0,5 m3/s flows through a capture mechanism in the middle of the lake directly to the buffer reservoir from the bottom of the dam through the Ibër River bed.

Gazivoda dam Gazivoda dam spillway Intake of 0,5 m3/s

Picture 3: Intake of the 0,5m3/s and the spillway of Gazivoda dam heading to the Ibër river bed c) Secondary (buffer) Reservoir – water is released either to the Main Canal through a gate which is operated by the IL Canal Company (for distribution of bulk water through the 49 km long IL canal for the various users). d) An Environmental Flow (E-flow) of 1,8 m3/s is released by a gate to the Ibër River and, in addition, when the reservoir is full after 4 to 5 hours of the two turbines operation, the water flows directly to the Ibër River via a spillway. e) IL Canal for bulk water conveyance– this canal distributes bulk water by gravity through a mechanism of canal, siphons, pipes and overflows to all user categories. The return water is collected in the upstream part of the Sidnica river that flows back into the Iber. page 96/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Picture 4: Pictures of the links between the Gazivoda dam and the second dam and the Gazivoda spillway (Source: Google Earth and F. Baudry)

f)

Hydropower generation

The water flowing by the Gazivoda dam spillway cannot be used to produce electrical power. Otherwise, all the inflow in the Gazivoda reservoir is used for power generation through the turbines.

The quantity of hydro-electricity which is produced during one year varies mainly according to the inflow in the reservoir that year. The mean annual value of inflow is around 11,2 m3/s. In dry years (10% occurrence) the inflow is 6 m3/s and in wet years the inflow is around 16 to 20 m3/s (10% occurrence).

In case of flood events, a few days per year the very high inflow in the lake generates an elevation of the water level and water flows over the Gazivoda dam spillway. This is a loss for hydro-electricity production. This does not happen when the level of the reservoir is sufficiently low before the flood events.

For electricity production the difference of altitude between the level of the lake and the turbine is important. A larger quantity of electricity is produced for the same inflow when the difference of altitude is greater. As a result, the day to day variation of the water level in the reservoir has an impact on the quantity of electricity produced. Fine tuning of turbines operation can therefore generate an increase of electrical power.

When the two turbines are in maintenance, there is a bypass through which water can flow directly in the second reservoir. The IL Canal Company management tries to avoid stopping the two turbines simultaneously to reduce losses of energy production. g) Use of the Gazivoda bulk water. The Ibër Lepenc Canal.

The bulk water is available ―twice‖ as a water resource: - First, its potential energy is used to generate power at the hydropower station, - Second, the bulk water which is conveyed by the IL canal is used for various uses as described in Figures 18 and 19 including community drinking water supply, irrigation, industry and power plants cooling. page 97/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

The 49 km long main canal can convey at its intake more than 10 m3/s.

However, due to losses at a rate of around 50%, the availability of bulk water along the canal decreases. In 2009 and 2010, the IL Canal Company undertook repair of the canal at locations were losses were high. This has slightly improved the situation. The IL canal has also secondary branches which convey water to particular locations where the water can be used.

The canal system as designed was never completed. The whole Ibër-Lepenc system was designed to irrigate more than 20 000 ha. Only a fraction of this surface is currently irrigated (less than 1000 ha in 2000).

Figure 18: Schematic representation of the Gazivoda, secondary reservoir, hydropower generation and bulk water use along the IL main canal (source BCEOM - Cowi study 2008 from ILE and consultant)

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Figure 19: WEAP model schematic mapping of the main uses along the IL canal (Source SCE/OIEau)

A s As a result, there is a large quantity of bulk water available for various uses along the IL canal (Figure 19). According to IL Canal Company‘s Technical Director, rules of operation of the Gazivoda system require the release of an Environmental Flow (E-flow) of 1,8 m3/s which correspond to a storage of approximately 60 million m3 per year out of the 370 million in the Gazivoda reservoir. The flow released downstream might have an importance in the future. It should be recalled that the Serbian government plans to construct dams in the Ibër River Basin to produce hydropower. An agreement has been signed recently with Italian partners on this matter.

2)

SYSTEM 2: PRISHTINA WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM The second water capture mechanism which has been delineated is System 2.

It includes the following infrastructures: -

The Batllava Reservoir

-

The Badovc Reservoir

-

The pipes and reservoirs to supply the various areas

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a) The Batllava reservoir, water conveyance and treatment system Graph 11: Variations of inflow in the Batllava reservoir (Source 1985 Water Master plan)

Monthly Range in Natural Water Supply Batlava Reservoir (Mm3/mnth) 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

Best Month Worst Month

Source: KfW Report

The Batllava Reservoir includes key components of the dams and is connected to a treatment plant located near the dam. Water from the reservoir is pumped to the treatment station, treated there and then conveyed through a pipe to the connected communities and to part of Prishtina and its surroundings.

Based on the reports by KfW (Wyg Intl., 2009), this Reservoir (and treatment plant) attain the design capacity of 70,000 m3/d (25. 5 Mm3/y) for drinking water supply. b) Badovc Reservoir, water conveyance and treatment system Graph 12: Variations of inflow in the Badovc reservoir (Source 1985 Water Master plan) Monthly Range in Natural Water Supply Badovc Reservoir (Mm3/mnth) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5

Best Month

0.0

Worst Month

-0.5 -1.0 Source: KfW Report

The natural ―supply‖ of the reservoir serving Prishtina is susceptible to seasonal variations as shown in Graph 4. The Badovc reservoir collects only about half of the planned resource capacity, contributing to water shortages in Prishtina. Most of the mechanical and electrical plant has been rehabilitated over the last 10 years and is in good condition. But in some instances due to infrastructure constraints, production of water became problematic during low rainfall years.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Badovc supply system, including the water treatment plant, does not attain the design capacity of 35,000 m3/d (12. 7 Mm3/y) for the supply of part of the population Prishtina; Production equals on average only about 18,000 m3/d (6. 5 Mm3/y), according to available water resources collected in the reservoir. There is therefore a water supply gap of 17,000 m3/d (6. 2 Mm3/y) over the planned capacities for Prishtina.

This production gap contributes along with the distribution inefficiencies (leakages from a dilapidated distribution network) to insufficient water supplies to meet the needs of the part of Prishtina connected to this system

3)

SYSTEM 3: COMMUNITY AND DECENTRALIZED EXTRACTION In the areas not connected to system 1 or 2, throughout the River Basin there are community and decentralized extractions which have been grouped in System 3 for analyse purpose.

Numerous towns, villages, private persons and industrial facilities extract groundwater via independent facilities, such as boreholes and wells. One primary example is the Kroni Well Field near Prishtina, which is characteristically comprised of shallow wells, as yields and quality are reported poor for deeper wells (based on information in reports by KfW; Wyg Intl., 2009).

B1)

RESOURCES AVAILABLE FOR USE – QUALITY ISSUES– INFRASTRUCTURE VULNERABILITIES POTENTIAL NEW STORAGE There are still possibilities to increase the storage capacity in Kosovo for both hydroelectricity but also for future water demand, whenever the existing infrastructure would be insufficient in the future.

There are also groundwater deep water resources. However, the geology is complex and the documentation which is housed in Serbia is not easy to access for Kosovar authorities. Therefore there is a need to explore these resources, characterize them and assess their potential socio-economic uses.

2)

QUALITY OF THE BULK

WATER

The IL canal is not well protected against pollution by houses in the vicinity of the canal or from accidental pollution (dangerous product spilled in the canal, animals falling in the canal, etc).

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Picture 5: Example of IL Channel hotspot

There are many tracks along the canal and they are used by farmers and households. It is difficult to prevent accidental pollution and even regular pollution from households (on-site visit of the team).

The microbiological quality of the surface and groundwater which are not protected by natural barriers is poor and expanding. There is no proper protection of the water and no treatment of the sewage in towns and in rural areas.

This quality issue can reduce the quantity of bulk water of good quality available in various circumstances.

I.5. DEMAND OF THE KEY WATER USES A-

DEMAND OF URBAN WATER NEEDS AND COMMUNITIES WATER SUPPLY

1)

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE WATER SUPPLY Raw water supply for drinking water production is common to all three resource capture mechanisms.

Drinking water supply via the Ibër-Lepenc System is reported to be based on a per capita consumption of 340 l/c/d, including all leakages in distribution networks. This is very high by European standards and about two times higher than in western European countries. The future consumption strategies aim for a reduction to 200 l/c/d. Different per capita consumption estimates have been collected in various studies. Nonetheless, this parameter seems not to be well understood or quantified yet.

The value chosen by the team for the WEAP baseline scenario is 150 l/s which is 4,5 cubic meter per month which corresponds to a mean value used in similar towns in Europe.

W Water is supplied to the households in the Ibër basin through mainly 2 Regional Water Companies: -

Prishtina Regional Water Company, supplying 7 municipalities, page 102/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

-

Mitrovica Regional Water Company, supplying 3 municipalities.

There are efforts from the Mitrovica Regional Water Company to include Serbian populated municipalities (grey in the Map 21). The area covered by those 2 companies and by the municipalities is presented in the Map 21. Mitrovica is supplying also the municipality of Skenderaj which is not located in the Ibër basin yet we will consider it in the study because this water is taken from the Ibër Lepenc canal.

Map 21: Extension of the Regional Water Companies (RWC) and municipalities in Ibër River Basin and in the rest of Kosovo.

LEGEND: Municipalities Prishtina Regional Water Supply Company (RWC) Mitrovica Regional Water Supply Companies (RWC) Municipality in negotiation for joining Mitrovica RWC Ibër River Basin

Water consumption for 2008 is presented in Table 17.

Table 17: Connected and non-connected population in Ibër River Basin (Source: Report on the performance for 2008 from the water and waste regulatory office, Prishtina and Mitrovica Water Companies Directors)

Number of Municipalities covered

RWC

Number of consumers

Number of population covered

% of population connected *

Prishtina

7

82 443

695000

65,6

Mitrovica

3

20 780

210000

48,7

* Considering the estimated population in 2008 presented further in the report Security Vulnerability 1: of the non-connected population, over 90% are supplied by water from shallow wells/boreholes, which are highly vulnerable to pollution (Source: the report WYG International on Prishtina regional water supply – 2009)

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We can consider that consumption is constant over the days and months.

Variations occur during the day but this does not have any impact on the resource as reservoirs have a sufficient storage (12 hours consumption including losses) to balance the daily peak flows.

This storage cannot provide strategic buffer capacity against major pipe bursts, power supply failures or resource constraints. (Source: the report WYG International on Prishtina Regional Water Supply – 2009).

Security vulnerability 2: there is a need to diversify the resource and to improve water security by increasing storage and buffer capacity for the large towns‘ emergency needs.

T Table 18: Key indicators of the Water supply production for the Prishtina and Mitrovica RWC (Source: the report WYG International on Prishtina regional water supply – 2009) Annual production (x 1 000 m³)

Mean daily Production in m³/s

Prishtina

40 800

111 781

Mitrovica

16 800

46 027

RWC

Mean Production in m3/s

% of non revenue water

Average consumpti on in l/c/d

1,31

46

135

0,54

54

182

Water supply in Kosovo especially in the Ibër basin is characterised by a high level of non-revenue water as shown on Table 18.

Water resources Mitrovica RWC The water is coming from the IL channel and a pipe serves also the Serbian populated area. There are plans to increase the storage capacity.

Prishtina RWC There are two main sources of water supplying the Region: -

Batllava dam to the north (capacity of 70 000 m³/d)1

-

Badovc dam to the south (existing capacity of 18 000 m³/d)1

In both cases water is pumped for treatment before being fed into the system via a series of reservoirs and pumping stations. There are also a number of borehole sources that mainly feed the surrounding municipalities, but do not make a significant contribution to the Prishtina supplies for the population.

In 2010 a new borehole was drilled on groundwater of sufficient quality which is available to supply bulk water to the expanding industrial and commercial area near Fush-Kosovo. (Source: the Technical Director, Prishtina Regional Water Company – meeting Dec 2010).

Security Vulnerability 3: much of the 760 km of Prishtina drinking water conveyance and distribution W system is in poor condition, and there is a high level of non-revenue water.

W Wastewater Wastewater is partially collected in the Ibër basin at a rate of: page 104/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

-

66% for Prishtina region and 47% for Mitrovica region.

There is no treatment of the wastewater collected, which includes both domestic and industrial wastewaters. Prishtina city is discharging its wastewater in the Sidnica River which is flowing back into the Ibër. Mitrovica wastewater is directly discharged into the Ibër River.

The groundwater is also affected by wastewater in villages.

Security Vulnerability 4: the pollution of groundwater is growing due to the new building and the absence of pollution prevention mechanisms. Groundwater resources are therefore increasingly contaminated. If nothing is done this trend will reduce the water available for human consumption especially in rural areas in the future T Security Vulnerability 5: the quality of the water in both rivers is very poor and represents a h threat for sanitary issues and a potential source of tension with Serbia which is situated e downstream. This is a significant transboundary concern.

BULK WATER DEMAND OF CONNECTED POPULATION Municipal water demand can be synthesized as follows: Table 19: Households demand - Regional Water Company public networks (assumptions 1) RWC

Daily consumption in m³/d

Resource

Prishtina

70 000 18 000 23 781

Batllava Dam Badovc Dam Groundwater

Mitrovica

46 027

IBËR LEPENC channel

Source: Report on the performance for 2008 from the water and waste regulatory office

Values entered in the WEAP model

The consumption per capita is 150 litre/day, which is 4,5 m3/month The network efficiency 60% which means that 40% of the bulk water can be used.

From the population of Prishtina and its surroundings (532 489 inhabitants) 

60% are supplied by the Batllava reservoir and system



40% are supplied by the Badovc reservoir and system

The connected population supplied by the Mitrovica Regional Water Company is around 210 000 inhabitants (Source MRWC Director) Return flow 70 %: 70 percent of the water captured flows back to the river assumption based on the experience of the Drini River Basin team in 2009.

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B-

DEMAND FOR AGRICULTURE The land in agricultural production which is irrigated by the IL channel in 2010 equals about 960 ha; the existing crop usage (crop types) assumes about 600 m3/ha/month or 20 m3/ha/day, with delivery only during 5 months between May – September.

Map 22: Schematic description of the Ibër Lepenc irrigation perimeters

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Table 20: Irrigation scheme and irrigated area Irrigation scheme

Area projected (ha)

Area rehabilitated

Area irrigated

(ha)

2006

Vushtrri

7200

3170

603

Shkabaj

7100

2000

Komoran

5620

Total

19920

Area

Area irrigated

Area irrigated

Area irrigated

2008

2009

2010

860.

28

959

822

660

53

165.

32

213. 4

240

240

2750

5. 5

83. 37

252

70

30

7920

661. 5

1108.

97

1424. 4

1132

930

irrigated 2007

The Ibër-Lepenc Hydro System was originally conceived to irrigate about 20,000 ha upstream of Sidnica River and in Drenica urban area (within the Project Study Area).

In the field of agriculture, interviews and field visits have provided an interesting insight on the prospects in this sector. The main driving force to increase irrigation is the possibility for farmers to have higher productivity and sell at a better price. Secure income and better markets could dramatically increase demand and competition for water. Insecure water provision might hamper agricultural development.

Table 21: Key parameters for bulk water used for irrigation: Total gross water demand for irrigated agriculture in Ibër basin in 2010 (Source SCE/OIEau IL) Scheme

2010 Net demand (Mm3/year)

Conveyance Distribution (open channel) efficiency efficiency (%) (%)

Plot efficiency (%)

Global efficiency (%)

Vushtrri

2,01

55%

Shkabaj

0,73

Komoran Total

Gross demand (Mm3/year)

80%

65%

29%

7,04

55%

80%

65%

29%

2,56

0,09

55%

80%

65%

29%

0,32

2,84

55%

80%

65%

29%

9,92

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BULK WATER DEMAND IRRIGATION

Values of parameter entered in WEAP MODEL

The Distribution return flow and field return flow values have been selected taking into account the experience of the Drin River basin project.

C.

DEMAND FOR POWER PRODUCTION The hydropower plant at the Gazivoda Dam of the Ibër-Lepenc Hydro-System typically achieves its design capacity of about 100 GWh/year.

However, this water is available for ―double usage‖ as it exits from the power generation turbines into the ―secondary/buffer‖ reservoir, which is the source to supply the bulk users in the Ibër-Lepenc canal including cooling water at the Obilic thermoelectric power plants: - The Kosovo A Power Plant is still active but should stop in a near future when the ‗New Kosovo‘ plant (see below) will be functioning. It requires cooling water only during 4 months per year (June to September), but only until 2017 when it will be taken off-line.

- The Kosovo B Power Plant will be refurbished and will remain active for the foreseable future.

- The New Kosovo Power Plant was originally foreseen as part of the IbërLepenc Hydro System, and is now scheduled for completion by 2016/17.

For cooling water it is assumed that there will be a reduction of the IL canal losses. A buffer basin is planned to be built at the end of the canal with a capacity corresponding to 10 days of average consumption for the New Kosovo and B plants (approximately 1,75 million cubic meter). This basin will be used to ensure a continuous and uninterrupted supply especially if ever there is a disruption of conveyance. Attention will be given to comply with water quality standards using modern technology.

(Source: Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment Kosovo C June 2008)

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D-

DEMAND OF KEY INDUSTRIES The Ibër-Lepenc Hydro-System originally supplied bulk water for mines, metallurgical factories and manufacturing plants. Several water consuming industrial units closed for economical or environmental reasons after the 1999 conflict.

In 2010 the only remaining bulk water demand is the Feronikeli one. .

Security vulnerability 4: there are still no strong administrative mechanisms which can influence priority allocation in the Water sector to the different bulk water users groups.

The cooling water, mines and industrial bulk water demand can be synthesized as follows: Table 22: Water demand for industry in 2010.

Industry

2010 Monthly consumption in m³/s

Source of water

Kosovo A

0. 25 (only during summer)

Ibër Lepenc channel

Kosovo B

0. 4

Ibër Lepenc channel

Feronikeli

0. 1

Ibër Lepenc channel

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I.6. BASELINE SCENARIO A1)

BASELINE SCENARIO - BULK WATER BALANCE AND SECURITY VULNERABILITIES WEAP RESULTS PRESENTATION The model built with WEAP provides outputs with the Result View Interface. It displays the results presented in tables, charts or maps.

The outputs are helpful to answer to the question: What is the water balance for the reservoirs of Ibër Basin system?

2)

INDICATORS FOR INTERPRETATION The WEAP graphs provide a monthly balance. However, to identify hot spots of possible water shortage under current and future conditions taking into consideration the storage in the reservoir, it is interesting to see the evolution between the two following parameters:  

The cumulative values of the inflows in the reservoir The cumulative values of the outflow representing the total demand as outflow of the reservoir

To test climate change impact a WEAP function can be used with the option for dry and very dry year option.

Although at this stage it is precarious to apply full statistical analysis due to lack of reliable data, the Consultant chose to define a risk indicator value for each reservoir as the critical value which will represent the limit of water available in the hypotheses of a very dry year. Based on WEAP functions, the inflow of a very dry year is taken as 50 % of the inflow of a “normal” year, for which the baseline year 2010 is sufficiently representative. This value of 50% is in line with the indications provided by reports on climate change. (Variations in the monthly flow may be higher than 50%).

3)

PARAMETERS AND THEIR VALUES FOR BASELINE SCENARIO

Table 23 recapitulates the parameters which are used for the 2010 baseline scenario. These parameters were captured in the WEAP model and the results are presented in tables and graphs in the models.

The following paragraphs detail the values given to each parameter considering the information collected by the Consultant from June 2010 to March 2011.

This selection of inputs data for the baseline scenario and the results obtained through simulation was shared with stakeholders. This has led to significant amendments and corrections in the inputs and the results of WEAP. .

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 23: Demand parameters and Minimum Environmental flow for the baseline scenarios (SCE/OIEau 2010) Baseline scenario Year 2010 SYSTEM 1 GAZIVODA

Name point in WEAP

PARAMETERS

Name point in WEAP

Abstraction

Eflow = 1,8 m3/s

Name point in WEAP

Abstraction

Name point in WEAP

Abstraction

Abstraction

Irrigation

Drinking Water

Energy

Industry

Parameters Irrigation

Parameters Drinking Water

Parameters Energy

Parameters Industry

Komoran Irr Unit

Mit_Vusj_Sken WS

Kosova A

Energy

Feronikeli M I

Only from June to Sept

Monthly demand

0. 25 m3/s

Monthly demand

Perimeter 1

Water supply Population

Irrigated surface in 2010

30 ha

150 l/d

Conveyance efficiency

Conveyance efficiency

55%

55%

Consump. per capita per year

55%

Conveyance efficiency

2 Mil m3

Conveyance return flow

Conveyance return flow

90%

40%

Monthly demand

90%

Conveyance return flow Distribution Efficiency

80%

Water losses

43%

10%

Network techn. efficiency

60%

Field efficiency

65%

Return flow

70%

Field return flow

18%

Crop pattern

85 % potatoes

Distribution return flow

210 000

Mining 0. 1 m3/s

page 111/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Baseline scenario Year 2010 SYSTEM 1 GAZIVODA Shkabaj Irr Unit

Perimeter 2

Eflow = 1. 8 m3/s Kosova B

Irrigated surface in 2010

240 ha

Conveyance efficiency

55%

Conveyance return flow Distribution Efficiency

40% 80%

Distribution return flow Field efficiency Field return flow

10% 65% 18% 85 % potatoes

Crop pattern Vushtrri Irr Unit

PARAMETERS

Energy Monthly demand Conveyance efficiency Conveyance return flow

0. 4 m3/s 55% 90%

Perimeter 3 Irrigated surface in 2010

240 660 ha

Conveyance efficiency

55%

Conveyance return flow Distribution Efficiency

40% 80%

Distribution return flow Field efficiency

10% 65%

Field return flow

18% 85 % potatoes

Crop pattern

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

B-

BULK WATER BALANCE UNDER BASELINE SCENARIO The results of the scenario under current conditions are presented for the 3 systems:

SYSTEM 1: GAZIVODA IBËR-LEPENC CANAL

BASELINE SCENARIO – WEAP RESULTS

Graph 13: WEAP results inflow and outflow of the Gazivoda reservoir

LEGEND

In the right side of the figure the legend shows the inflow in the reservoir (+ values) and different outflows from the reservoir (- values).

page 113/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 14: Gazivoda Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc)

Graph 15: Gazivoda Water Balance 2010 – cumulated values (mil mc)

Gazivoda Monthly Inflow and Outflow 2010

80.00 70.00

Inflow from upstream (106 mc) Outflow (106 mc)

Gazivoda Water Balance 2010 450.00

Inflow from upstream cumulated value (106 mc)

400.00

Outflow cumulated value (106 mc)

350.00

Risk indicator cumulated value

60.00

300.00

50.00

250.00

40.00

200.00

30.00

150.00

20.00

100.00

10.00

50.00

0.00 January February

March

April

May

June

July

August September October November December

0.00 January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September October

November December

(Note: Graphics present the potential unbalance on a monthly basis and year basis. Cumulative values are useful to reflect the annual renewal of the storage in the reservoirs, System 1 (Gazivoda reservoir) - Results Interpretation Graph 14: shows the monthly distribution of the inflow and outflow of Gazivoda reservoir. The total demand of bulk water along the Ibër Lepenc canal is based on the water demand at the gate of the buffering reservoir upstream. The comparison between the inflow and outflow values of each month shows that there is enough water available in the system during spring and winter seasons. However, during the summer period a deficit of water can occur, especially in August.

This is due to irrigation demand of approximately 6. 9 million m3 of water.

Graph 15: shows that for the baseline situation in 2010 System 1 satisfied all the bulk water demand; the cumulative demand (red column) is far lower than the cumulative inflow for a representative normal year (blue column).

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Taking into account climate change (as indicated by a typical very dry year, i.e. with only 50 % inflow of the baseline representative year) the cumulative inflow for a very dry season (yellow line) is still higher than the bulk water demand. This means that there is sufficient bulk water at the first gate of the Ibër-Lepenc canal to ensure ―quantitative‖ Water Security under the 2010 baseline scenario conditions.

Even though the Ibër Lepenc canal can convey large amounts of water, on a daily basis, problems of water shortages can still occur during limited periods of time for various reasons such as the following: - improper anticipation of the daily demand and improper operation of gates releasing water - sudden damage to the channel especially when the water level is high in the channel - overflow if even canal siphons entries are obstructed by solid wastes - bulk water quality problems, etc.

These are security issues of water which we have called ―vulnerabilities‖ which are slightly different than ‗bulk water shortage‘. They have to be addressed as well in the programme of measures.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

SYSTEM 2: BATLLAVA RESERVOIR – PRISHTINA

BASELINE SCENARIO 2010

Graph 16: WEAP results inflows and outflow of Batllava Reservoir for 2010 baseline scenario

LEGEND

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 17: Batllava Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc)

Graph 18: Batllava Water Balance 2010 – cumulative values (mil mc)

Batllava Monthly Inflow and Outflow 2010

Batllava Water Balance 2010

25.00

Inflow from upstream cumulated value (106 mc)

20.00

80.00

Inflow from upstream cumulated value (106 mc)

70.00

Outflow cumulated value (106 mc) Risk indicator cumulated value

60.00

Outflow (106 mc)

15.00

50.00 40.00

10.00 30.00 20.00

5.00

10.00

0.00 January

0.00 February

March

April

May

June

July

August September October November December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

Results Interpretation Graph 17: shows the WEAP results for the monthly distribution of the inflow and outflow of Batllava reservoir.

Graph 18: shows the inflow, which is compared to the monthly distribution of the total demand of bulk water pumps to the drinking water treatment plant near the reservoir.

The comparison between the inflow and outflow values of each month shows that there is enough water available in the system during spring and winter seasons.

However, during the summer period a deficit of water can occur, especially in August. This is due to irrigation demand of approximately 3. 64 million m3 and 3. 41 million m3 in September. The cumulative value graph shows that it does not mean that there is a water shortage as the inflow from October to June is important Graph 30: shows that for the baseline situation in 2010, the System 2 meets the bulk water demands: the cumulative demand (red column) is far lower than the cumulative inflow normal year (blue column).

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Taking into account climate change (typical very dry year with only 50% of baseline inflow) the cumulative inflow for a very dry year (yellow line) is very close to the bulk water demand which means that temporary shortages might occur.

Beside of the quantitative shortage, there are security issues of water which we have called ―vulnerabilities‖, for example, due to the insufficient protection of the reservoir from pollution from households, tourism and farming activities. At the end of the 2010 season the Consultant could observe in various locations the proliferation of macrophytes reflecting the excess of nutrients entering the reservoir. There is also a risk of accidental pollution from the roads.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

SYSTEM 2: BADOVC RESERVOIR – PRISHTINA:

BASELINE SCENARIO 2010

Graph 19: WEAP results inflows and outflow of Badovc Reservoir for 2010 baseline scenario

LEGEND

/page 119/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 20: Badovc Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc)

Graph 21: Badovc Water Balance 2010 – cumulative values (mil mc)

Badovc Water Balance 2010

Badovc Monthly Inflow and Outflow 2010 30.00

Inflow from upstream cumulated value (106 mc) Outflow cumulated value (106 mc) Risk indicator cumulated value

6.00

Inflow from upstream cumulated value (106 mc)

25.00

Total Outflow (106 mc)

20.00

5.00 4.00

15.00

3.00 2.00

10.00

1.00

5.00

0.00 January February

0.00 March

April

May

June

July

August September October November December

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November December

Results Interpretation: Graph 20: shows the WEAP results for the monthly distribution of the inflow and outflow of Badovc reservoir.

Graph 21: shows the inflow, which is compared to the monthly distribution of the total demand of bulk water pumps to the drinking water treatment plant near the reservoir. The comparison between the inflow and outflow values of each month shows that there is enough water available in the system during spring season. However, during the summer period a deficit of water may occur.

Graph 33 highlights that for the baseline situation 2010 the system Badovc cannot satisfy the bulk demands: the cumulative demand (red column) is larger than the cumulative inflow for a normal year (blue column).

Taking into account climate change (typical very dry year with only 50% of the baseline inflow) the cumulative inflow for a very dry season (yellow line) exceeds the bulk water demand which means that temporary shortages will occur.

These are also other security issues of water which we have called ―vulnerabilities‖, which are due to the insufficient protection of the reservoir from pollution from households, tourism and farming activities. The sewage waters from household are reaching the reservoir and there are risks of accidental pollution from the roads.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

SYSTEM 3: Groundwater System (Kuzmin + Lypjan + Shtime Reservoirs)

BASELINE SCENARIO 2010

Graph 22: Kuzmin Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc)

Graph 23: Kuzmin Water Balance 2010 – cumulative values (mil mc)

Kuzmin Groundwater Monthly Inflow and Outflow 2010

Kuzmin Groundwater Water Balance 2010 Inflow from Return Flow + Natural Recharge cumulated value (106 mc) 6.00 Outflow cumulated value (106 mc)

Inflow from Return Flow + Natural Recharge (mc) 0.60 Outflow (106 mc)

5.00

0.40

3.00

4.00

2.00 0.20

1.00

0.00

0.00

January February March

April

May

June

July

August September October NovemberDecember

Graph 24: Lypjan Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc)

January February March

April

May

June

July

August September October NovemberDecember

Graph 25: Lypjan Water Balance 2010 – cumulative values (mil mc)

Lypjan Groundwater Monthly Inflow and Outflow 2010

Lypjan Groundwater Water Balance 2010 Inflow from Return Flow + Natural Recharge (106 mc) 0.50 Outflow (106 mc)

5.00 4.00

0.40 0.30

3.00

0.20

2.00

0.10

1.00

Outflow cumulated value (106 mc)

0.00

0.00 January February March

Inflow from Return Flow + Natural Recharge cumulated value (106 mc)

April

May

June

July

August September October November December

January February March

April

May

June

July

August September October NovemberDecember

page 121/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 26: Shtime Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc)

Graph 27: Shtime Water Balance 2010 – cumulative values (mil mc)

Shtime Groundwater Monthly Inflow and Outflow 2010 Shtime Groundwater Water Balance 2010 Inflow from Return Flow + Natural Recharge (106 mc) 0.25 Outflow (106 mc)

5.00 Inflow from Return Flow + Natural Recharge cumulated value (106 mc) 4.00

0.20 0.15

3.00

0.10

2.00

0.05

1.00

0.00 January February March

April

May

June

July

August September October NovemberDecember

Outflow cumulated value (106 mc)

0.00 January February

March

April

May

June

July

August September October November December

Results Interpretation A 2010 monthly distribution of the inflow and outflow of the underground reservoirs can be seen in Graphs 22, 24 and 26. If we make a comparison between the inflow and outflow values of each month, we can observe that we have enough water available in the system during the entire year of 2010. Graphs 23, 25 and 27 show that the cumulative demand for each reservoir (red column) is lower than the cumulative inflow of a normal year (blue column) which means that for the baseline situation 2010 the System 3 satisfied all its demands.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

I.7. BUILDING SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE A-

JUSTIFICATION OF RANGE OF VALUES FOR THE VARIOUS PARAMETERS USED IN SCENARIO The baseline scenarios show that in 2010 bulk water shortage exists for the part of the town supplied by the Badovc Reservoir System.

This means that the water from Batllava reservoir should make up for the shortage in Badovc. The shortage, which is reported by the water users, is also due to the capacity and operation of the water distribution and treatment systems. There are important losses and unaccounted-for-water in this network. There are two projects which are on-going or planned to improve this situation. 

one project aims at supplying an additional 700 l/s through a water supply plant in Schkabaj taking water from the Ibër-Lepenc canall



the second project is aiming at improving the efficiency of the network and improving the overall management of the company. The on-going measures have had already some success in reducing the losses and improving the cost recovery.

As explained in the beginning of Part II, a second step after the simulation of the baseline scenarios is to investigate ―what would happen if‖, considering the possible future conditions and the possible set of measures which can be taken.

In this approach, it is important to identify and to take into account the uncertainties. This can be done for example by simulating scenarios with various possible future conditions.

As for the baseline, the approach consists in identifying the shortage in terms of their location, the month when they occur, under future conditions.

In case there is risk of shortage, measures have to be taken to reduce this risk. The question is then ―What constitutes a robust set of measures and the timing of their implementation?‖ Robust means that, whatever the conditions in the future, the measures provide benefits and minimize negative conditions.

To build the scenarios, decisions have to be taken regarding the value of factors of uncertainties. The WEAP model proposes a process for taking into account the different parameters.

Main factors of uncertainties: 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

B-

Population growth Percentage of connected population Growth of surface for irrigation Growth of industrial consumption Climate change

FACTORS OF UNCERTAINTIES For building the scenarios for the future, a 25 years baseline (2010-2035 time period) has been selected (as explained above). page 123/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

The main factors of uncertainties are the following: Other parameters of uncertainty can be listed: 

Conveyance reliability of the canal, damage, etc.



Capacity of the administration and population to protect the quality of the water



Consumption of water



New technology for saving water or recycling used water



The impact of the use of water downstream and of the political situation

These parameters will be taken into account in the chapter regarding measures.

C1)

DEMAND SIDE PARAMETERS EVOLUTION OF THE CONNECTED POPULATION TO WATER SUPPLY It is difficult to know what the future conditions and the distribution of the population in 10 and 20 years will be. Variables for scenarios regarding water demand for household and the water supply have been explored in Table 24 and Table 25.

These are only preliminary steps but, based on these figures, it is possible to build scenarios.

A first method would be to take an extreme value for water demand and an extreme value for climatic conditions.

Another method could be to build sets of scenarios by the variation of one key parameter with the other being stable.

The evolution of connected population to water supply has to take into account 2 factors: -

Population growth in the area,

-

Extension of connections.

Population growth Estimates of population growth are not accurate as the last census was carried out in 1991. The 1991 census results indicate a steady uniform growth at an annual growth rate of around 2%. The Statistical Office of Kosovo (SOK) has since made a number of estimates of the population, which indicated that, by 2001, the population had decreased significantly but had since started to recover rapidly.

We can assume that the population of the Ibër basin is presently growing on a higher basis (3-4 %) due to people who are returning and moving to Prishtina from other areas in Kosovo.

We can consider that the recent increase of population growth rate is due to temporary factors and that after 5 to 10 years, the growth rate will be below 2% in line with Western Balkan countries.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 24: First scenarios of population growth Region

Hypothesis

2008

2010

2020

2035

Prishtina

4 % up to 2015 3 % up to 2025 2 % up to 2035

679

734

1 035

1 463

Mitrovica

3 % up to 2015 2 % up to 2025 1,5 % up to 2035

239

253

324

415

917

987

1 359

1 878

TOTAL Scenario A with high population growth (x 1000 persons) Table 25: Second scenarios of population growth Region

Hypothesis

2008

2010

2020

2035

Prishtina

4 % up to 2008 3 % up to 2015 2 % up to 2025 1,5 % up to 2035

679

720

921

1 181

Mitrovica

3 % up to 2008 2,5 % up to 2015 2 % up to 2025 1 % up to 2035

239

251

313

382

792

971

1 234

1 562

TOTAL Scenario B with low population growth (x 1 000 persons):

The 2 scenarios for population growth are presented in Tables 24 and 25. The former scenario is interesting for the case that the population growth might not be as high as expected.

For the WEAP simulation the population growth rate was calculated according with the data collected on March 7, 2011 from the Prishtina Regional Water Company (from 4% in 2010 to 1% in 2035).

Extension of connections The Water National Strategy (WD 2006) set the objective of 80% of the population accessing to a public water supply system by 2013. On the other hand, the report WYG International on Prishtina regional water supply – 2009 indicates: ―The percentage of population in the supply area obtaining water from piped water supply systems was, after discussions with the RWCP, estimated to increase from the existing level of 65% to around 88% by 2030‖. We will consider this second assumption, which seems more realistic and was taken into account for a project aiming at developing water supply in the Prishtina region. It corresponds to an increase of the population connected of 1% per year.

A new feasibility study is carried out recently by a KfW consultant and new assumptions might be taken by this Consultant.

We will take a similar objective for the Mitrovica region with a percentage of 82 % of the population connected in 2030. It corresponds to an increase of the population connected of 1. 5 % per year.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Prishtina region: The project to increase water supply in the Prishtina region up to 88% of the population by 2030 is presented in the report WYG International on Prishtina regional water supply – 2009. The water will be taken from the end of the Ibër Lepenc channel and transferred to a new water treatment plant with a capacity of 700 l/s in a first stage and 1050 l/s in its final configuration. The 700 l/s capacity installation is supposed to be operation in 2013. The need for the full capacity of 1 050 l/s is expected in 2023.

The estimated investment cost of the first operation in 2011-2013 is estimated at 29,5 M€ for an annual operation cost of 1,725 M€ in 2013, increasing every year up to 2,83 M€ in 2030 (source: report WYG International on Prishtina regional water supply – 2009: Annex 5).

Mitrovica region: In Mitrovica there is a plan to construct a water pipe taking water directly in the Gazivoda reservoir to increase the water supply capacity (Source: Director of the Mitrovica RWC).

Financing for this project has not been found yet. It should be noted that such project is supported by the Mitrovica Regional Water Company as it can provide better security on the long term especially for the bulk water quality and avoid difficulties in water sharing on the IL canal.

It should be noted that drinking water is distributed free for the Serbian populated northern part of Mitrovica. Efforts are made by the Mitrovica RWC to obtain an agreement in order to have the water use in the Northern part be paid by consumers. An EU funded project is planned in Vushtri aiming at the development of water supply for the town urban area and surrounding villages.

2)

EVOLUTION OF AVERAGE DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION The average per capita consumption for 2008, which was calculated by dividing the total volumes invoiced by the population connected, gives respectively to 135 litres per capita per day (l/c/d) for Prishtina region and 182 l/c/d for the Mitrovica region.

Whereas the consumption in Prishtina already exceedsthe European per capita consumption, the one in Mitrovica seems even higher. The calculation is made from the water produced. This is likely due to the fact that there are people using water (Serbian populated area) who are not officially registered as connected to the network. This increases artificially the average consumption per registered consumer.

The individual water consumption is known to decrease when tariffs increase and to increase when per capita income grows. As Regional Water Companies are just covering their operation expenses, we can expect that over a long period tariffs will increase in order to cover financing of new infrastructure and operation of wastewater treatment plants to be constructed. The increase of per capita income in towns will partly reduce this tendency.

Reliable historical data on impact of income and price elasticity on domestic per capita consumption are missing. Hence, it is difficult to forecast the likely future trends. It is therefore assumed that the per capita demand will not vary much over the planning horizon from the current levels. Two alternate scenarios were considered, one showing a decrease in per capita consumption of 0,5% per year and the other a stagnation over the period.

The table below shows the projected average daily consumption per capita considered:

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBĂ‹R RIVER BASIN AND IBĂ‹R LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 26: Possible evolution of the average daily water consumption due to tariff policy Region

Evolution

2008

2010

2020

2035

Prishtina

- 0,5% per year

135

134

127

118

180

180

150

135

Base on real consumption Mitrovica

Reduction due to tariff increase

For WEAP modelling and scenario building the values of consumption per capita was used based on the data collected on March 7, 2011 from Prishtina Regional Water Company, for identifying the hot spots of water shortage It is important to keep in mind that consumption per capita is expected to be decreasing (from 150 l/d in 2010 to 120 l/d in 2035) due to tariff structure change as households can see an interest in reducing their consumption. This supposes that the rate of the billed water improves. As a consequence, the household will be inclined to pay less and the average consumption will be reduced. During the hot summer however the consumption will increase as people use more water in such circumstances. For the dry year the consumption was set at 180 l/d and for the very dry year at 200 l/d.

page 127/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

3)

EVOLUTION OF NON-REVENUE WATER The current level of non-revenue water is about 46% for Prishtina region and 54% for Mitrovica region. Those levels are considered as high and need to be reduced.

Regional water companies need to concentrate on several actions enabling to reduce non revenue waters such as: -

Leakage research and intensive repairs

-

Set a program for annual renewal of pipes

-

Enhance the quality and quantity of bulk metering

-

Intensive research of illegal connections

-

Generalize meters for domestic connections

-

Reduce the waters used that is not metered

Such actions are already taking place with success in the Prishtina RWC. The report done by WYG International on Prishtina regional water supply – 2009 takes into account a reduction of non-revenue water from 46% to 27,5% in 2020 and 25% in 2030 after discussions with the RWC of Prishtina. The report mentions that it will be a difficult target to meet, and it represents probably the largest risk to the project. We agree to this appraisal as with 24h water supply and increase of the pressure in networks, leakage should also be increasing.

Given the uncertainty of the level of non-revenue water RWC will be able to meet, we will consider 2 scenarios. The first scenario will consider a significant improvement of nonrevenue water levels for both Prishtina and Mitrovica and the other one a stagnation or low improvement of the current level of non revenue water.

The tables below present the 2 scenarios proposed: Table 27: Evolution of non-revenue water level – Scenario A Region

Hypothesis

2008

2010

2020

2035

46%

43%

28%

24%

54%

51%

36%

32%

- 1,5%/y to 2020 Prishtina

- 0,3%/y to 2030 - 0,2%/y to 2035 - 1,5%/y to 2020

Mitrovica .

- 0,3%/y to 2030 - 0,2%/y to 2035

Scenario A with significant improvement of non revenue water level:

page 128/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 28: Evolution of non-revenue water level – Scenario B Region

Hypothesis

2008

2010

2020

2035

Prishtina

- 0,5 %/y to 2020 - 0,3 %/y to 2030 - 0,2 %/y to 2035

46 %

45 %

40 %

36 %

Mitrovica

- 0,5 %/y to 2020 - 0,3 %/y to 2030 - 0,2 %/y to 2035

54 %

53 %

48 %

44 %

Scenario B with low improvement of non-revenue water level:

4)

SCENARIOS OF POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF THE DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND As seen in the previous sections, due to missing accurate data on 2010 population, population growth and rhythm of improvement of water service, we will consider 3 scenarios to evaluate the possible evolution of the domestic water demand: 3) Scenario 1 corresponds to the highest domestic water demand: It assumes a high population growth, no reduction of the daily consumption per capita and a low improvement of non-revenue water 4) Scenario 2 corresponds to a medium domestic water demand: It assumes a high population growth, no reduction of the daily consumption per capita and a significant improvement of non-revenue water 5) Scenario 3 corresponds to a low domestic water demand: It assumes a low population growth, reduction of the daily consumption per capita and a significant improvement of non-revenue water The table below presents the domestic water demand in m³/day for those 3 scenarios.

Table 29: Domestic water demand under 3 scenarios Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Region/Resourc e

2020

2035

2020

2035

2020

2035

Prishtina

180 728

270 288

150 607

227 611

126 230

160 447

Mitrovica

75 638

110 233

61 456

90 780

55 930

72 942

TOTAL m³/day

256 366

380 521

212 062

318 391

182 160

233 389

For WEAP, for simplification purpose, a simple calculation was made: the population multiplied by per capita consumption.

5)

SCENARIOS OF

POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR AND INDUSTRIAL WATER

DEMAND

The industrial water demand should be mainly impacted in a short term period by the construction of the new power plant: New Kosovo. The project will be functioning by 2020. page 129/211

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The expected water use for the new power plant is 380 l/s in a first step and 760 l/s in a second phase.

6)

Power plant Kosovo A will be discontinued when new Kosovo is operational. Therefore, we consider the removal of its water consumption from 2020. As mentioned in the report: Water supply from the Ibër Lepenc hydro system for the proposed Kosovo C power plant – European Agency for Reconstruction 2008, the Ibër basin contains metallurgic factories and manufacturing plants that are nor working at the moment, but could restart their activity by 2016-2017. In this case, we have to consider the potential water consumption evaluated at 1 000l/s.

All those industries are assumed to be supplied by the Ibër Lepenc channel, which has a sufficient capacity for additional use. The resulting water demand to take into account is as follows:

Table 30: Evolution of the demand from the industry

Daily consumption in m³/d Industry

2020

2035

Resource

Kosovo B

34 560

34 560

IBËR LEPENC channel

New Kosovo

32 832

65 664

IBËR LEPENC channel

Feronikeli

8 640

8 640

IBËR LEPENC channel

Manufactory plants

86 400

86 400

IBËR LEPENC channel

TOTAL

162 432

195 264

IBËR LEPENC channel

Kosovo B should be normally decommissioned before 2035, but to be conservative, it has been considered that it keeps functioning up to 2035.

In a similar way, it can be assumed that New Kosovo operates 90% of the time.

(Note that Table 30 is assuming a generation capacity of 500 MW for New Kosovo in this decade, and an additional 500 MW after 2020, and that Kosovo B operates at 80%).

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7)

AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT & WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT

Graph 28: Evolution of export of agricultural commodities from Kosovo (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy – Feb 2010)

During farmers interviews in August 2010, it was observed that in the plain between Prishtina and Mitrovica farmers are traditionally cultivating potatoes. Potatoes cultivation is considered by farmers as well adapted to the soil, easy growth, and easy to transport without crop damage to a foreign market. The average yield is estimated around 30-40 T/ha. The cropping pattern is based on this cultivation. 85%5 of the IL irrigated area is devoted yearly to irrigated potatoes cultivation. Cabbage and maize are the secondary crops of the cropping pattern.

Export of potatoes increased significantly during the last 3 years (Graph 28). However, other crops would provide better income per cultivated surface as their price in Kosovo is much lower than in EU countries. The Kosovo agricultural export is low and there is an important potential of growth, especially for crops which have a market competitive advantage (Graphs 29-30) and can be easily cultivated in Kosovo where large surfaces of soil are very fertile. .

However, in terms of bulk water consumption, this does not have much of an impact, as low water consumption irrigation islikely to prevail for such cultivation as is the case already in south Kosovo.

5

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Graph 29: Kosovo price for agricultural commodities compared to EU FOB Origin Price (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy – Feb 2010)

Graph 30: Comparison between the level of agricultural commodities export in various European countries (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy – Feb 2010)

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Figure 20: Crops with a good potential of development in Kosovo (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy – Feb 2010)

For the baseline scenario the following assumptions were made (Table 31).

Information collected at the IL Canal Company and through field visit as well as references taken from literature led to the following assumptions regarding irrigation demand. The estimates which are shown in Table 31 consider improvement of efficiency due to specific measures.

Table 31: Total gross water demand for irrigated agriculture in Ibër basin in 2035 (water saving scenario)

Scheme

Irrigated area 2035 (ha)

Cropping pattern

Crop area (85% out of the irrigated area)

Crop water requirements (mm)

Net irrigation needs (m3/ha)

Irrigation quantity (Mm3)

Total

10 000

Potatoes

8500

617,6

3588

30,50

Distribution efficiency

Plot efficiency (%)

Global efficiency

Gross demand (Mm3/year)

Scheme

Net demand Conveyance 3 2035 (Mm /year) efficiency (%)

(%) Total

30,50

55%

80%

(%) 65%

29%

106,64

The corresponding total net irrigation quantity increases up to 30 million m3, i. e. 8% of the water stored in the Gazivoda reservoir.

When losses due to system inefficiency are taken into account, the water which has to be supplied in the IL canal to irrigate corresponds to around 30% of the water stored in the Gazivoda reservoir (106 Mm3).

The value of 10 000 ha for the area irrigated through the IL is taken up in Table 31. This figure assumes that there will be continued efforts to increase irrigation.

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reduction. In brief, the development depends on support to farmers to improve their access to market, the quality of irrigation service and of its infrastructure and to the regulation of the pressure on land inside Irrigation Perimeters.

In order to identify hot spots, in the WEAP model, the worst case situation has been taken into account: The assumption was made that in 2020 the surface irrigated will equal 8000 ha, according to the data collected from ILC Company. In the period 2020-2035 the irrigated area will remain constant. The growth rate is 24% per year for each irrigated perimeter: 

Komoran

 

Vushtrri Shkabai

Measures which might have an impact on the irrigation surface and bulk water consumption per hectare. a) Water saving measures There is an important potential with development of irrigated agriculture through efficient use of water. To achieve this, farmer organization, secured market outlets and cooperation with the food processing industry have to be encouraged and supported. b) Agricultural land protection Save agricultural land and reverse the urban sprawling trend inside the irrigation schemes. The scheme perimeters must be better protected through regulations including dissuasive measures, for example, attaching water rights to the land ownership: 

making the contract with the Irrigation perimeter a compulsory package whatever the land use and the water use level are;



preventing land speculation and construction of houses without any consideration to the irrigation system infrastructure.

Water rights provide the possibility for the landowner to irrigate his crops.

They correspond to a water allocation inside the irrigation perimeter which is calculated on the basis of the crops need during the irrigation season (April to October) and take into account intra and inter-annual variability Attaching water rights to land ownership is a current practice of water users associations aiming at: - reducing the market pressure on agriculture land, - providing a minimum revenue for the irrigation company.

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c) Tariff structure modification French recent works (Loubier et al., 2007) highlighted the impact of a tariff structure change.

The study was carried out on a population composed of two farmer categories:  

Farmers who are risk averse, ‗careless ‗ farmers as far as water management is concerned.

The ‗careless farmers‘ have a stable consumption whatever the tariff structure; The ‗risk averse farmers‘ reduce their water consumption when the proportional part in the tariff increases. d) Agriculture development and contracting practice The establishment of strong market oriented agriculture is proposed in the agriculture development opportunity report, USAID (Feb. 2010).

Private companies contracting with farmers on a guaranteed volume of production in exchange of a guaranteed price would raise market oriented farmers‘ interest. It would limit the uncertainty regarding recovering costs and provide cash to farmers for production.

Contracting practices might develop through the initiative of export professionals, agrobusinesses, supermarkets or even with public authorities for environment services.

However, two conditions are required to ensure that the total added value is not concentrated downstream of the food chain and that benefits return to farmers and to the environment:  

First of all, public control over the recommended practices, Second, farmer organisations.

e) Farmer income increase Increasing farmers income thanks to a better crop valorisation would help reduce public subsidies for non-solvable people.

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D-

SUPPLY SIDE PARAMETERS 

Evolution of Conveyance

The availability of bulk water for the different uses along the canal or pipes which convey it depends on the structural state of this infrastructure and of the resources available to maintain them and to prevent damage resulting from accident or hostile action.

With the WEAP model, it is difficult to analyse the situation on every location where bulk water is used but an assumption can be made regarding the rate of conveyance in the main canal, in distribution system.

New infrastructure can be created which will change the supply side conditions.

For example, there are plans or project ideas proposing the conveyance of water by pipes from the Gazivoda reservoir.

To identify the hot spots of water shortage, in the WEAP model considered a fixed rate of conveyance of 55%.



Evolution of Storage

The supply can vary also if new storage is ever created, for example, buffer storage can be created along the Gazivoda canal to provide water in case of temporary disruption of the canal.

To identify hot spots, the storage capacity existing in the baseline year 2010, which is reasonably representative for a normal year, is considered in the WEAP model.  C Climate change The parameters which have been taken into consideration account for the effect of climate change on the behaviour of consumption changes and other natural processes as: -

population consumption,

-

evaporation coefficient and irrigation deficit

-

runoff.

Normal year conditions: They correspond to the 2010 data (baseline scenario).

The population average consumption for a normal year (150 l/day/inhabitant) for European living conditions.

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Dry year conditions

Household water consumption for a dry year period will be set at 180 l/day/inhabitant (values selected by the Consultant team) – In fact, the household water consumption is changing under the effect of the climate change.

Evaporation coefficient (PET). A delta of + 0,5 on the normal year evaporation value was entered for a very dry year simulation (see World Bank report, Figure 34).

Inflow (or water available on the surface). 25 % of the normal year inflow (value selected by the WEAP methodology) modified by a WEAP function ―Hydrology – Water Year Method‖ data view.

Very dry year conditions Household consumption – Following the same logic for a dry year period, the value of this water consumption was set at 200 l/day/inhabitant (Consultant‘s assumption).

Evaporation coefficient (PET) – A delta of + 1 on the normal year evaporation value will be imposed for a very dry year simulation (Coefficient obtained with the Graph 31, taken from a climate change study by the World Bank).

Inflow (or water available on the surface) – 50% of the normal year inflow (value imposed by WEAP methodology) modified in the WEAP function ―Hydrology – Water Year Method‖ data view.

Based on the parameters described above, the team has built different scenarios which are detailed in the following sections.

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Graph 31: Box for selection of value for parameters impact for the western Balkans by climate change (World Bank report).

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E-

SELECTION OF SERIES OF SCENARIOS To analyse the progressive impact of different users, the WEAP model was run and results extracted, graphics were prepared for the following series of scenarios for the two periods: (i) period 2010-2020 (situation in year 2020), and (ii) period 20202035 (situation in year 2035).

Scenario 1: Population growth scenario Scenario 2: Population growth + agriculture growth scenario Scenario 3: Population growth + agriculture growth + increasing of industry activities Scenario 4: Population, agriculture, industry growth and climate change impact on water demand (for a dry year period) Scenario 5: Worst case Scenario - Population, agriculture, industry growth and climate change impact on water demand (for a very dry year period)

F-

SUCCESSIVE SCENARIOS BY VARYING THESE FACTORS The elaboration of the various scenarios with WEAP is an iterative process, referring to:   

assumption to be made drivers to be changed indicators to be analyzed.

Using the baseline scenario the following assumptions were made:  Assumption on population The assumptions of population are related to the population increasing rate. This can be modified in the ―Key Assumptions‖ data view. 

Increasing of the irrigated area

The assumption on irrigation for this scenario includes the maximal growth rate possible for irrigation area. This scenario might occur in case there is a good market and a good price for agricultural products. The irrigated area can be modified in the WEAP function ―Key Assumptions‖ data view. 

Increasing of the industrial consumption

At the stage of industrial consumption we considered that the new power plant New Kosovo will be built, Kosovo A power plant will be stopped and the metallurgic factories and manufacturing plants will restart their activity (see Table 32). These parameters can be modified and added in the ―Key Assumptions‖ and ―Demand Sites‖ data view.

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Table 32: Water Consumption for Industry Water Consumption in m³/s Industry

2015

2017

2035

Resource

Kosovo A

0. 25

0

0

IBËR LEPENC channel

Kosovo B

0. 4

0. 4

0. 4

IBËR LEPENC channel

0

0.38

0.76

IBËR LEPENC channel

0. 1

0. 1

0. 1

IBËR LEPENC channel

0

1

1

IBËR LEPENC channel

0. 75

3. 02

3. 02

IBËR LEPENC channel

New Kosovo Feronikeli Metallurgic factories and Manufacturing plants TOTAL



Climate change can have an impact on rivers discharge and on the storage in reservoirs. To take the climate change into account at the scenario building stage it is possible to change the ―Hydrology Data‖  ―Water Year Method‖, from Normal year into a Dry/Very Dry year.

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I.8. RESULTS OF THE SCENARIOS – BULK WATER BALANCE UNDER FUTURE CONDITIONS A-

IMPACT OF SELECTED PARAMETERS ON THE WATER DEMAND

The results of WEAP activities and also the analysis of the impact of each parameter on the water demand from our area of study can be seen in the annex section. Table 33 shows that a growth in the industrial and agricultural sectors is the factor which has the biggest impact on System 1 (Gazivoda and Ibër-Lepenc System), however, climate change is likely to have an impact of similar extent.

Table 33: Impact (in % demand increase) of different scenario parameters on the water demand from Ibër River Basin.

System

Population Growth

Irrigated agriculture Growth

Industry Growth

Climate Change – dry year

Climate Change – very dry year

System 1 Gazivoda System

7,7

68,3

72.7

78.3

82.3

System 2 – Batllava System

27,5

-

-

38,5

52,5

System 2 – Badovc System

18,3

-

-

41,7

55,4

System 3 – Groundwater System

25

-

-

121,37

148,6

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B-

HOT SPOTS IDENTIFICATION In this paragraph only results regarding the simulation of scenarios 1, 4 and 5 will be presented, because these scenarios present a possible water shortfall to assure water security in central Kosovo in the future (2020-2035). The full version of the WEAP model activities and the methodology that was developed is attached (WEAP Activities Report) as annex. It could be useful to use this annex for a better step-by-step understanding of the results logic and to develop other scenarios for the future based on a similar methodology.

System 1, i.e., the Gazivoda Dam & ibër Lepenc Canal, serves three different sectors with strong demand on water:   

population, agriculture, industry and mining.

Results for a dry year and a very dry year (scenarios 4 and 5) are presented in graphs 32 and 33. In these graphs, the monthly water demand for each demand node is represented by columns of different colours. The blue line represents the monthly inflow of IL Canal (water available for use) and the red line represents the monthly values of bulk water available at the end of the canal.

Graphs 34 to 41 present the typical response results for the System 2 (Badovc and Batllava reservoirs under a variety of scenarios based on demand growth and climate change, showing severe and further increasing water deficits in the near and further future (2020 and 2035).

The formulas used to calculate the series of following:

ΔQ water month by month are the

1. ΔQwater _Jan = Qinflow_Jan – Qtotal water demand_Jan 2. ΔQwater _Feb = (Qinflow_Feb + ΔQwater _Jan) – Qtotal water demand_Feb 3. ΔQwater Mar = (Qinflow_Mar + ΔQwater _Feb) – Qtotal water demand_Mar.

where the monthly values of inflow and water demand were extracted of the 12. ΔQ water Dec = (Qinflow_Dec + ΔQwater _Nov) – Qtotal water demand_Dec WEAP model.

The variation of the sum of monthly ΔQ shows that System 1 is not satisfying its demands during August-October period, for both scenario 4 (dry year) and 5 (worst case scenario – very dry year).

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Graph 32: Future water situation in IL Canal, 2035, dry year condition

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Graph 33: Future water situation in IL Canal, 2035, very dry year condition

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Table 34: Water shortage in System 1 (Gazivoda system) Water shortage (million cubic meter) - Values extracted from WEAP

2035 Dry year Gazivoda system 2035

Total

2035 Very dry year

August

September

October

August

September

October

9.195

3.381

0

12.240

6.802

3.559

12.6

22.6

Graph 34: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Population Scenario – 2020

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Graph 35: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Population Scenario – 2035

Graph 36: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Dry year Scenario – 2020

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Graph 37: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Dry year Scenario – 2035

Graph 38: Unmet demand in Batllava system – System 2 – Dry year Scenario – 2035

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Graph 39: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Very dry year Scenario – 2020

Graph 40: Unmet demand in Badovc system – System 2 – Very dry year Scenario – 2035

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Graph 41: Unmet demand in Batllava system – System 2 – Very dry year Scenario – 2035

A - Impact of demand growth Scenario 1: Population growth scenario Scenario 2: Population growth + agriculture growth scenario Scenario 3: Population growth + agriculture growth + increasing of industry activities B-Impact of climate change Scenario 4: Population, agriculture, industry growth and climate change impact on water demand (for a dry year situation) Scenario 5: Worst case Scenario - Population, agriculture, industry growth and climate change impact on water demand (for a very dry year situation)

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Table 35 summarizes the analytical results obtained from the WEAP model simulations.

Table 35: WEAP results synthesis System

Scenario

2020

2035

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 System System

1

-

Gazivoda Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Worst Case scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2

System System

2

–

Batllava Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Worst Case scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2

System 2 – Badovc System

Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Worst Case scenario Scenario 1 Scenario 2

System 3 – Groundwater Scenario 3 System Scenario 4 Worst Case scenario

Bulk water supply lower than demand but risk of occasional shortage -- measures to be prepared Water security assured but limited – initiate implementation of adaptive measures Demand exceeds supply – water saving measures essential Not applicable

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I.9. CONCLUSIONS These results of table 35 show two main water shortage situations: Badovc: reservoir water shortage can occur from 2011 onwards and the shortage increases especially under climate change assumptions.

Battlava: in 2035 there is severe risk of water shortage requiring additional or new supply and this shortage is worse under climate change assumptions.

Gazivoda: under climate change assumptions and taking into consideration a large increase of irrigation up to 10 000 ha, there is a risk of structural water shortage after 2020, especially under climate change assumptions.

Ground water system: the confidence in the result is modest only as assumptions had to be made on the capacity of the groundwater aquifers.

In the short term urban water supply investments are planned which will provide enough water up to year 2020. It is assumed that the water distribution network has the capacity to distribute the treated water from the Batllava and Gazivoda reservoirs to the different parts of the city of Prishtina.

In the long run 2020-2035, especially in case of the climate becoming drier, there is a high probability that structural water shortages will occur during the normal summers.

Secondly, it is a concern to maintain the quality of the drinking resource and of the water in the channel on the long run, as the pressure from pollution sources is increasing.

Additional clean sources of water will be need to be made available from 2020 onward because of the growing relative and absolute water, and because it may be difficult to maintain a sufficient quality of bulk water.

Considering also the responsibilities of the company supplying water, options presenting a low risk of water contamination are likely to be supported by the Regional Water Companies, for instance a diversification of water source and water supply routes. This will be essential in case of emergency, natural disaster, pollution, human errors or accidents leading to disruption of the water conveyance.

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PART V DRAFT PROGRAM OF MEASURES TOWARDS WATER SECURITY I.1. TERMS OF REFERENCE According to the ToR, ―the programme of measures has to be designed as component of a river basin planning and management programme to meet objectives regarding Bulk Water Security in central Kosovo in the future. These objectives are currently broadly defined in the ToR. Point 3 - Water demand management programme Develop a comprehensive list of water saving measures and provide unit costs (or range of costs) for each measure, where appropriate.

Point 4 - Assessment of potential water savings in bulk water supply The ‖Kosovo-Towards Water Strategic Action Plan‖ report identified potential water savings in the bulk water supply in the Ibër Basin -

Optimisation of operation of the Gazivoda dam Reduction of leakage in the Ibër Lepenc canal

were identified as two options with significant lower unit cost than other options to reduce water losses/increase water supply of the central part of Kosovo.

The consultant is required to reassess (and confirm or not as appropriate) whether these two options are indeed low cost options for water savings in bulk water supply to central part of Kosovo.

If alternative options are identified as cost effective, these should be described and cost estimates should be provided.

It is noted that, eventually, securing ―good water quality‖ in the Ibër will be an objective to be met under EU Water Framework Directive and the consultant will consider whether and how the options considered may impact on the possibility to achieve this objective in the future.

Point 5 – Initial identification f a robust program of structural and non-structural measures as component of a river basin planning and management program.

Based on the analyses above this activity will include a. Identification of a draft programme of measures to reduce current water scarcity and risk of future water scarcity while sustaining good water quality. This would include not only structural measures (investments) but also non-structural measures such as capacity building, pricing changed regulation b. demonstration that the proposed program is robust to alternative futures of climate, water demand. The demonstration will refer to the scenario above.

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I.2. SCHEMATIC PRESENTATION OF TOR Water security should be looked at in a long term perspective. To identify what should be the next steps and priorities, it is important to consider the investment already planned, the possible changes in population, the economical development and water demand.

A good understanding of the relations between the water resources, and the water systems which are capturing, conveying and distributing the water is a prerequisite. The first chapters dealt with these aspects.

From this assessment, as shown in the Figure 21, a program of measures can be identified and its robustness assessed using a mulitcriteria grid and a Cost Benefit Analysis.

The assessment has pointed out that vulnerability for Central Kosovo means water shortages but also other types of vulnerability such as deteriorating water quality; the program of measures has to address these issues.

Figure 21: Schematic presentation of the objectives of the program of measure as per ToR

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II. PROCESS OF MEASURE IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT II.1. STEPS FOR MEASURES IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT The measure identification and assessment included the following steps: 1) The assessment of the bulk water shortage for the 3 water systems and their components, as presented in the analytical part of this report. The WEAP model was used to this end. There is concern regarding water shortage for the Badovc reservoir. However, the new water supply of Prishtina, which is planned, will provide additional supply to this city which will likely remediate this deficit at least up to 2020.

As a result, measures for water saving on the side of the users must be introduced. The main reduction of water consumption can be obtained by reducing water which is not paid by users, by the improvement of the water supply service and the introduction of a progressive, acceptable increase of the water tariff. Encouraging progresses are made by the Prishtina Regional Water Company in identification and reduction of losses and in the increase of payment of water bills.

In addition, reducing losses in the Ibër-Lepenc canal can generate additional water which can be delivered to paying customers. Increasing the conveyance efficiency can also contribute to reducing future tensions with riparian countries.

It also reduces energy and environmental costs. For the New Kosovo plant a target has been set for a reduction of 25 % of the losses.

2) The insufficient protection of the drinking water resources. Significant water security issues were identified. They were termed vulnerabilities. These are due to the age of the water systems, to the pollution pressure, or to other threats to the water storage and supply systems.

3) A list of measures was identified to remediate these vulnerabilities with the aim to secure a satisfactory degree of Water Security in Central Kosovo for connected and still-to-be-connected populations as well as other uses notably industries/mines, irrigation and power generation.

4) For each stand-alone measure, robustness and relevance were assessed using selected criteria and Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA).

5) The preliminary results on water shortage calculation and vulnerabilities, and on the selected measures were presented to the government partners during an official meeting on the 23th of February in Prishtina. Comments were recorded and incorporated in this revised report. The assessment of water shortage was reviewed using updated data provided especially by the Prishtina Regional Water Company and partners in the energy sector. The errors were also corrected. The final results are significantly different from those in the earlier draft version. The concept of Water Security was clarified in this final version, as there were diverging opinions on what should be the level of security to be aimed at. To this end further coordination between the key institutions and page 154/211

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specialists is recommended. Section III provides key concepts to move towards a common understanding. Finally, the proposed measures were reviewed and were combined into four projects. A draft conceptual note was prepared to facilitate their financing.

II.2. METHODS FOR VISUALIZATION

MEASURE

ASSESSMENT

AND

For prioritisation purposes, each measure was assessed with two instruments as per ToR:  

a grid of criteria to assess relevance, and a Cost Benefit Analysis.

Figure 22 represents a typical graphic description for each measure indicating:  

the score obtained based on the criteria, the net present value of the investment as a reflection of the cost benefit analysis.

Figure 22: Presentation of the instruments to assess the relevance of measures.

The criteria grid includes ten criteria for prioritisation which have been selected taking into account general water security principles and criteria for project financing such as: 

general public benefits that the measure can generate, and



feasibility, acceptance, readiness of the measures, etc.

It is considered that the score that is obtained using these criteria also provides an indication of the degree of robustness of the measure proposed.

Based on the recommendation obtained in the 24th February meeting, the measures are organised in packages, each package being a coherent project proposal.

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Work has been performed to organise the measures according to the main issues developed in the detailed analysis of water security in central Kosovo (first part of this report).

Additional intangible benefits from externalities are introduced in the cost benefit analysis. In effect, the benefit coming from reducing or avoiding the damage in case of an emergency situation are sometimes considered to have a value of zero, which is incorrect; the value of the damage avoided should be counted as direct benefit from the investment or the measure.

II.3. CRITERIA FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF MEASURES The water security principle proposed by the Consultant has been utilised to screen the measures. Each measure should contribute to the following principles: 

Equitable and reasonable water allocation



Sustainable water resource management, including through tariff policy



Protection of water resources



Ensure a degree of comfort in emergency conditions

In addition to this broad assessment, more specific criteria have been defined and are also part of the grid for assessing the measures. The criteria and the system for calculating the score are presented in Table 36. The Criteria selected are the following: I - Stakeholder commitment. Political Will: a proposal which is not supported by political will and a leader or leading institution will likely face difficulties in its implementation and the impact from the measures might be low. Of course, political will can vary over time but the assessment is performed taking into consideration the interest that institutions might have to lead the implementation of the measures. For example, measures with little direct immediate political gains might not be very popular.

II - Funds – Availability and Affordability: this criterion considers the cost benefit analysis, where appropriate. This is, at this stage, a rough assessment and there are many uncertainties in such analysis. However, whenever possible, relevant ranges of costs and benefits were estimated.

III - Environmental Impact: this criterion takes into account the environmental impact of the measures in terms of public health, but also protection of ecosystems and water resources intended for human consumption.

IV - Economic Development: the measure can have few or many, direct or indirect economic impacts on the short or long term.

V - International cooperation: the measure can affect to various degrees the international cooperation.

VI - Employment: a measure might encourage direct or indirect job creation.

Although it is difficult to evaluate how many jobs a measure can create, this criterion gives weight to measures with a positive effect on job creation.

VII - Technical capacity: this criterion avoids the design of measures which could exceed the current capacity in terms of skills and maintenance, and would page 156/211

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help avoid installing overly sophisticated tools which are not taken care of by the operators. It also takes into account the fact that the important support by the international community to the country may undermine the availability of skilled workers for particular jobs.

VIII - Robust concept – Flexibility, veatility: this criterion evaluates to which point the measures are still relevant when future conditions change.

IX - Readiness: the degree to which a measure is ready to be implemented and financed. It is to be noted that some measures do not need to be started now.

However, they might be relevant and provide higher benefit if an event occurs in the future. In this regards the timeframe is important.

X- Institutional responsibility framework: each measure is individually considered against ten criteria to gauge the overall viability, as a basis to compare and prioritize the entire program of measures.

Points are assigned for each criterion, based on the following scale, and then adjusted per the weighting factors: 0 = negligible 1 = low 2 = medium 3 = high

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Table 36: Water security criteria to prioritize the program of measures Criteria:

Description:

Maximum Points

Weighting Factor

I.

Stakeholder Commitment Political Will

each measure needs a ―champion‖ to succeed

45

15%

II.

Funds: Available & Affordable

without investment funds or customer payments, measures will stall

15

5%

III.

Environment

required for sustainable resource management

15

5%

IV.

Economic Development

the regional economy is the basis for society and inter-basin cooperation; water supply is a key contributor

30

10%

V.

International Cooperation

The Ibër River basin spans across borders – and is to be shared by all stakeholders

7,5

2,5%

VI.

Employment

Inputs to aid the working population provide extra benefits

15

5%

VII.

Technical Capacity

Builds on and develops local capacities; long-term external inputs are less preferred

30

10%

VIII.

Robust Concept Implementable in a stepwise – versatile, fashion, per available funds, resources, etc. organic

22,5

7,5%

IX.

Readiness

The degree of preparation of the project or measure which make it ready to be implement soon or not.

45

15%

X.

Institutional Responsibility Framework

Compatible with existing water sector context

30

10%

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II.4. COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS A- OVERVIEW To conduct the economic analysis, the Consultant assessed the program of measures using a cost-benefit analysis (CBA). CBA is an analytical technique which entails calculating the ratio of benefits to costs over the evaluation period; here the CBA ratio was calculated based on the present value of the aggregated discounted annual values of the benefits and of the present value of the aggregated discounted annual values the costs. A ratio greater than 1.0 indicates the realization of the initiative results in higher benefits than costs, and, thus the initiative is considered an acceptable use of resources; alternatively, a ratio less than 1.0 indicates higher costs than benefits, and the initiative is considered undesirable.

Thus, CBA is a valuable tool during the planning process, especially for screening measures of different types achieving different outcomes – to determine which measures are suitable for further consideration. For example, investors (national governments, financing institutions, private companies, etc.) often use CBA to aid in decision-making regarding the allocation of scarce financial resources.

N. B. It is important to note that the CBA should be interpreted carefully when it is used to rank or prioritize competing measures. The sequence in the annual cash-flows can affect the magnitude of the ratio (over 1.0), but not the overall suitability assessment (the attainment of a ratio over 1.0).

B- BACKGROUND CBA was developed as a tool to assess the comprehensive nature of large, capital intensive initiatives, such as dams and regional supply projects, when planning aiming at the best use of scarce financial resources.

Comprehensive means that CBA aims to consider the benefits and costs, which may arise in different segments of the community or context, especially those extending beyond a standard assessment of capital, financing and operating costs - and the revenues gained from the particular initiative.

So, the purpose of CBA is to consider additional factors, which may not normally have a price tag or be readily purchasable in the marketplace – but which are clearly by-products of investment measures. Such factors are termed ―externalities‖ and include, but are not limited to items such as:  Public/community access to water supply for public health, social and economic development  Environmental health and quality  Water resources availability – quantity and quality The advantage of is that the evaluation is holistic, considering all possible factors. However, conducting CBA properly:  how to assign a monetary value to the externalities?  how to set monetary values – in a neutral manner without bias favour of or against project realization? page 159/211

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The answer to these questions and the approach used by the Consultant to conduct the CBA are detailed in the following text in the assumptions for externality unit costs and values of costs and benefits.

C- ASSUMPTIONS – GENERAL METHODOLOGY The methodology applied for the Cost-Benefit Analysis is preliminary and general, according to the scope of the project and data availability.

Nevertheless, this assessment fulfils the purpose to assist a general screening of the suitability of the intended measures for further consideration, commensurate with this preliminary level of assessment.

Assessment Period: the economic analysis is conducted over the period of 2010 – 2035, a 25 year evaluation period.

Present Value: The present worth of all costs or of all benefits is calculated in each year of the assessment period using the stated discount rate.

Net Present Value: The sum of the present worth of all costs (negative) and benefits (positive) accrued during the assessment period. This is also sometimes called Net Benefit; a positive net benefit generally confirms a worthwhile measure, which is suitable for further assessment, since higher benefits are generated than costs. Conversely, a negative Net Benefit indicates an unfavourable measure, which should not be considered further, since the measure results in more costs than benefits to society.

Discount Rate: a rate of 10% is applied in the present value calculation, based on the project country context. (This is beyond the range of 5-9% recommended in Water Resource Economics (R. Griffen, MIT Press, 2006), for ―federal and state projects and policies not subject to a mandated discount rate‖, but is appropriate since the project country is not a developed, industrialised economy).

D- ASSUMPTIONS – COSTS In a Cost-Benefit Analysis the costs are often more suitable to quantification, as the price to realize a measure is generally paid for – and thus more readily estimated.

Capital Expenditures (CAPEX): The investment sum for ―one-off expenses‖ to realise infrastructure facilities or procure equipment/materials are estimated based on market rates for similar items.

Operational Expenditures (OPEX): The annual expenses regarding operations & maintenance of facilities, personnel, vehicle running costs, etc. are estimated per market rates for similar items.

E- ASSUMPTIONS – BENEFITS In a Cost-Benefit Analysis, the indirect benefits may be more difficult to quantify.

The monetary value of ―externalities‖ is typically set via more rigorous study and includes willingness-to-pay studies, customer surveys, etc. to more accurately gauge and calibrate the value of such benefits in the project context according to local values and habits; the key aspect during this preliminary assessment in

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the evaluation is to consider such benefits in a sound, practical and unbiased manner.

Revenues: The additional revenues gained from (additional) bulk water sales per water savings or added water resources are calculated at tariff rates.

Further, some measures result in incomes associated with payment of additional fees or penalties.

Externalities: Revenues alone do not fully represent the benefits gained from the allocation of water resources; just as a bridge provides numerous benefits, which are not directly paid for each time it is used, access to water resources also provides many intangible benefits throughout society. This analysis considers the following externalities, which are described in turn below: 1) Public health and safety 2) Economic development 3) Environmental integrity 4) Integrated water resource management 5) Risk minimization or cost avoidance 1) Externality- Public Health: Safe drinking water quality and pristine raw water supply reap benefits throughout society well beyond that considered in tariffs.

•

Medical Costs Avoided: according to Facts and Figures - Attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (World Health Organisation; 2004) savings of between 0. 6 – 2. 5 Euro per capita per year can be reaped if communities are supplied with safe drinking water.

•

Sick Days Avoided: according to Facts and Figures - Attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (World Health Organisation; 2004) savings of between 0. 1 – 0. 3 Euro per capita per year can be reaped when communities have safe drinking water, according to avoidance of workforce losses in productivity.

•

Flood Damage Avoided: according to Flood Damage to the United States a reanalysis of NWS estimates (US National Weather Service; 1926-2003) ensuring impervious land cover can reduce property damages from floods at about 10 Euro per Capita per Year.

•

Water Treatment Materials & Operating Costs Avoided: higher-quality bulk water is estimated to result in a 5% annual savings in drinking water treatment plant operations.

2) Externality- Economic Development: A water supply system provides a basis for commerce in the respective community.

•

Economic Basis of Community Water Supply: according to Facts and Figures - Attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (World Health Organisation; 2004) a gain of between 3 – 34 Euro per every Euro invested can be reaped in economic activity in communities with a reliable water supply system.

•

Increased Employment: according to increased employment related to each measure (for example, additional Ministry personnel) commensurate gains will be achieved in the form of salaries, etc. (This sum is typically cancelled out by the respective cost item).

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•

Recreation/Tourism: according to Measuring the Economic Value of a City Park System (The Trust for Public Land; 2004) a value of between 1. 5 – 8 Euro per park visit can be gained from trail type parks (such as in headwaters conservation areas)

3) Externality - Environmental Integrity: An intact and vigorous natural ecosystem, where surface and ground-water resources generally play a vital role, provides value to the society as a whole.

•

Biological Minimum Flows: according to Environmental Flows in Integrated Water Resources Management: Linking Flows, Services and Values (Institute of Environment & Resources, Louise Korsgaard; 2006) a value of between 3 – 6 Euro per square kilometre of watershed per year can be gained in watersheds where biological minimum flows are maintained (such as per intact headwaters conservation areas or sustainable water allocation policies).

4) Externality – Integrated Water Resources Management: According to Ecological and Economic Advantages of an Integrated Water Management (I. Heinz; Institute of for Environment Protection, University of Dortmund; 1990) the application of sound water resources management policies for sustainable extraction, allocation and conservation will avoid the depletion of basin resources – and requirement for external transport from another basin and savings of about Euro 0.15 to 0.30 per cubic meter.

5) Externality – Emergency Risk Aversion: The availability of water resources during emergency scenarios (natural disasters, facility failure, etc.) is calculated at tariff rates.

F-

STEPS TO NEUTRALIZE BIAS An acknowledged weakness of the Cost-Benefit Analysis is the possibility for bias or error when determining the calculation parameters such as unit prices, discount rate, etc. The biased valuation of costs or benefits will affect the outcome and suitability assessment. To counter this possibility, the Consultant has carried out sensitivity analyses, to investigate the impact of varying estimates on the calculation: •

Range of Unit Costs (low-medium-high): A range of values is selected to calculate the particular item.

As normal procedure, the Consultant has applied the ―highest likely‖ values for calculating costs and the ―lowest likely‖ values for calculating benefits.

This ensures a conservative assessment, which avoids overstating the benefits of the intended measure. (On the other hand, it is also possible that benefits are understated excessively which might risk rejecting measures that are valuable. This should be studies in a next stage of the project and is beyond the scope of this current report).

•

Sector Multiplier: The measure under consideration may provide a cost or benefit, but is not the sole element within the study area and its human population which provides this benefit. Therefore, only a percentage of the value is applied so as to not overvalue the item. For example, a measure which maintains good raw water quality will contribute to the benefit of ―medical costs avoidance‖, but is not solely responsible for this condition.

Therefore, a sector multiplier of 50% is applied to more accurately state the level of impact.

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III. PROJECTS AND MEASURES IDENTIFIED III.1.

QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF WATER SECURITY A- ASSESSMENT OF THE WATER SHORTAGE AND WATER SAVING NEEDS For the population connected to piped water supply, the WEAP scenario analyses have shown that there will be bulk water shortages in 2020 and that climate change will exaggerate the situation in 2035.

For the non-connected population, shortage of water for human consumption in rural areas can occur frequently due to the high level of contamination of the resource.

B- OPERATIONAL SHORTCOMINGS The population in Kosovo towns is experiencing water shortages. In many instances, the constraints and capacity of the water supply network is also a reason of these shortages. It is important to recall that disruption of supply at the tap is a different issue than the bulk water shortage issue. Tap water shortages include difficulties due to the following factors:   

Shortcomings of the water supply network, Insufficient water treatment capacity, Temporary insufficient pressure in the end of water pipes.

It was agreed between the Consultant and the World Bank that it was beyond the scope of this study to look into the operation of the secondary networks of the main users such as the Regional Water Companies.

The tap water shortage will not be covered by the measures proposed.

However, the analysis of the situation has led to the identification of various vulnerabilities related to water security.

For each main type of vulnerability a draft ―Project conceptual note‖ was developed using the EU format as requested by partners. This was suggested in order to facilitate possible submission for financing.

III.2.

VULNERABILITIES OF WATER SECURITY A- PRESSURE ON WATER RESOURCE As described in the first chapters there are important pressures on water resource.

It is urgent to do all that is necessary to reduce the contamination risks of water that is used for human consumption, -

in existing and future reservoirs,

-

in the IL canal and pipes for drinking water, page 163/211

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-

in the groundwater which can be used as an alternative source for drinking water supply.

Hence, the consultant recommends to investigate in detail other possible sources and routes for supplying water, especially after 2020, even if they look expensive at a first look, when the losses in case of rare event are not taken into account. At this date it is probable that the demand will exceed the supply during dry years.

All the elements considered above should be taken into consideration.

It is proposed to study a series of measures including: -

protection of drinking water resources,

-

diversification of sources, alternative routes for conveyance.

These measures can provide flexibility to ensure sufficient water of good quality for drinking water, especially in case of emergency due to accident, natural catastrophes, human mistakes or attacks, etc.

The relevance and benefits provided by the various options should be assessed. The scope of the present work does not allow investigating in detail all the options.

To this end, storage sites and routes as well as ideas and steps to move forwards towards improved water security in central Kosovo are proposed

B- POLLUTION PRESSURE ON DRINKING WATER RESOURCES A - Surface water: Although the simulation of future situations which was performed by the Consultant was concentrated on water quantity, the Consultant pointed out the importance of the pollution pressure on the water resources: The vulnerabilities identified first were the following: 1- The drinking water resource in the reservoir is not well protected against accidental and pollution coming from villages and activities surrounding it.

2- The quality of the water in Ibër and Sidnica rivers is very poor and represents a threat for sanitary objectives and a potential source of tension with Serbia, which is situated downstream. This is a significant transboundary concern. Improvement of the status of the Water Bodies (under EU WFD Directives) is to be seen on a long term perspective, but protection of the resource used for drinking water supply is a priority, 3- An increased use of water for drinking water requires that a sufficient quality of the bulk water be maintained continuously especially in reservoirs and in groundwater and springs.

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To cope with this issue, the following two projects are proposed: PROJECT 1: Protection of drinking water resources in reservoirs.

Measures 1- Improvement of knowledge of precipitation, water quality and hydrology, 2- Policy and tools component for water resource protection, support for the enforcement of drinking water protection zones 3- Training of staff and capacity building on water resource protection B - Groundwater: 1- Of the non-connected population over 90% are supplied by water from shallow well/boreholes, which are highly vulnerable to pollution.

2- The pollution of groundwater is growing due to the new buildings and the still insufficient pollution prevention mechanisms. Groundwater is increasingly contaminated. The high pollution pressure in several areas is creating difficulties for a healthy use of groundwater. If nothing is done, this trend will reduce the water available for human consumption, especially in rural areas in the future.

PROJECT 2: Development of groundwater sources for non-connected population Measures 1- Groundwater knowledge development.

2- Installation of a groundwater monitoring network.

3- Development of good quality groundwater for drinking water of nonconnected population.

C-

THE CONVEYANCE SYSTEM NEEDS REHABILITATION AND PRIORITY ALLOCATION 1- It is envisaged that the new Kosovo power plant will use cooling water from the IL canal. The new power plant will need water without interruption.

2- There are also plans to supply the Prishtina and Mitrovica urban areas with additional bulk water coming from the IL channel as well.

3- The baseline scenario led to the identification of possible hot spots of water shortage. According to the simulation, climate change will have an impact in the case of an important growth of the irrigated areas up to 8000 ha.

4- As described in the analysis of the water system, there is a risk of disruption in the conveyance of water to the end users due to the following events - Landslide or earth movements generated by heavy rain events or earthquakes can damage the conveyance of the canal. Landslides are already occurring next to the canal. page 165/211

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- Accidental pollution or acts of vandalism as well as insufficient maintenance or improper reactions during emergency can create temporary disruption of bulk water conveyance.

5- Also, the IL canal is not well protected from accidental damages or vandalism. 24-hour surveillance is needed to clean the siphon grates of the solid waste or even animal carcasses which have fallen into the canal.

Without such a close surveillance, there is a risk that water overflows the canal.

To cope with this, the following project is proposed: PROJECT 3: Providing 24 h sufficient water of good quality via Ibër Lepenc canal.

Measures 1. general planning for prioritising investment and repairs and infrastructure development, 2. define and implement rules of priority allocation and development of platform for discussion between users, providers and public authorities, 3. repair of canal and protection against physical damage, 4. protection against pollution and other threats such as accident pollution, attacks, 5. equipment for gates management and water allocation through improved flow regulation, 6. storage along the canal to store water outside peak demand, 7. training of staff and capacity building,

D-

DIVERSIFICATION AND ALLOCATION OF WATER RESOURCE Parts of the Water systems need to be replaced, rehabilitated or adapted to future users. Drinking water supply requires continuous good quality.

Climate change and unexpected events are likely in the long run to create disruption of conveyance, pollution and water shortages, These risks are a concern for the security and the non-stop supply of water for cooling the new Kosovo power plant.

This is why alternative sources and diversification of the conveyance routes especially for drinking water should be studied now, even if they are costly, as anticipation is better than emergency investments when the problem is acute. Diversity of sources and routes can improve water security. It might avoid important economic losses in case of extreme emergency.

An interesting option is to increase the water supply flexibility by interconnecting conveyance structures Allocation of the biological minimum or environmental flow (E-flow) should be maintained in any case as they usually provide important socioeconomic benefit especially to the less favoured category of the population.

Drinking water should be the first priority but, in case of emergency, there should be rules for water allocation. It is necessary to improve the practical

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mechanism which can influence priority allocation in the Water sector to the different bulk water users.

PROJECT 4: Study of options for providing better water security in

case of major emergency .

Measures 1. Study the options for investment of water security options (new dams.

Groundwater, new route for drinking water) 2. Technical and environmental study of the options 3. Debate on the options

Figure 23: risk of rupture of conveyance, land slide, solid waste disrupting the secure flow of water in the IL canal (Consultant‘s survey August 2010).

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IV. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECTS AND MEASURES IV.1.

PROJECT 1 - PROTECTION OF DRINKING WATER RESOURCES OF RESERVOIRS A- PROJECT TITLE Protection of drinking water resources in reservoirs

B- BENEFICIARY INSTITUTIONS The beneficiary institutions are: -

The Regional Water companies of Central Kosovo The Municipalities where the drinking water resources are located The Ministry in charge of environment The Ibër Lepenc Company.

C- SITUATION ANALYSIS Better information on the water resources and pollution pressure For ten years there have been regular hydrological measurements, but the validation process is not yet sufficient. As a result, the hydrological data of the last ten years cannot be utilised without important time-consuming sorting, checking, validation and processing. Even though extensive training has been delivered through external support, there are still significant improvements which are necessary such as the following: - Reinstallation of network for precipitation measurements on a regular basis.

- Collection of data for rating curve calculation.

- Improvement of data quality for sampling and analysis of parameters on water quality in rivers.

- Full implementation of groundwater exploration.

- Installation of a groundwater monitoring network.

Several of these elements were pointed out as important during the 24th February workshop in Prishtina.

As reported in the Water Resources Development Plan (regarding the Prishtina Regional Water Company, financed by the KfW, February 2010) the Batllava and Badovc reservoirs are subject to growing human-caused stress: a) land development in the catchment areas is increased, with the likelihood to further degrade reservoir water quality, b) there is new land development close to the shore and recreational uses during the summer months, c) accidental pollution can occur as it is possible that dangerous substances can be manipulated or transported close to the reservoir or in the catchment area (especially hydrocarbons, but also pesticides and detergents), d) animals are grazing in large numbers too close to the reservoir.

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Need to better protect the water in reservoirs This pollution pressure may increase year by year and lead to the degradation of the raw water quality, in particular of the biological parameters, which pose an greater public health risk. Excess of phosphorus and nitrogen can generate eutrophication, which affects drinking water production.

Based on the recommendations of the Water Resources Development Plan, several steps are suggested to stabilize and improve the situation. This course of action is consistent and assures compliance with Kosovo Administrative Order Nr. 40, 2007, the E. U Water Framework Directive, the E. U. Drinking Water Directive 99, the Kosovo law, and several policy documents.

Positive actions of motivated groups of people can increase the opportunities of the administration to apply laws for wrongdoers and to provide incentive to people implementing water protection measures.

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Total budget: Euro 11.7 million €

D- LOGICAL FRAMEWORK Project: “Protection of drinking water resources in reservoirs” Overall objective

Objectively verifiable indicators

Sources of Verification

The objective is to protect in the long term the quality of water in the existing reservoirs Gazivoda, Batllava and Badovc and other surface water intended for water supply, especially for drinking water Project purpose

Project evaluation

a)

to improve water resources monitoring – precipitation, hydraulic and water quality – within the Ibër River Basin,

No. of data series on rainfall, hydrology, water quality of good quality

Databases Data quality check

b)

to improve decision making for water resources management, more efficient utilization of resources by collecting reliable information to develop efficient protection measures: avoid land development, recreation practices, etc, that lead to degrading water quality

Protection measures implemented or not

Annual report

Number of pollution sources treated

Annual report

c)

d)

to reduce pollution in reservoirs by various sources: coming from agriculture, transport and houses.

IPA budget: €

Assumptions

Evaluation Report

Improvement of the management Administration arrangement for payment of people recording rainfall

Results 1.

2.

3.

Reduction of pollution reaching the reservoir Quality of the water in the reservoirs is not degradation Capacity to deal with accidental pollution

Number of pollution sources treated.

Quality of the water in reservoirs.

Capacity of institutions and staff to deal with emergency.

Activities 1-

Survey every two years.

Monitoring of water in the reservoir.

Emergency exercises.

Means

Subsidiary act on water

Costs Euros

Assumptions

Measurements of precipitations, water quality, hydrology a) Elaboration and support to implementation of a water resources monitoring strategy

150000

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b)

Procurement of additional/replacement monitoring equipment

200 000

c)

External Support for the improvement of monitoring data quality

150000

2- Elaboration of an protection plan on large reservoirs a) Preparation of Catchment Area Development Protection Plans,

350 000

b) Identification of pollution sources around reservoirs and proposal of measures to reduce the pressure

5000

c)

5000

Establish, or refine delineation of protection of areas

3- Support for the enforcement of measures on protection zones a)

Outfitting elements for the newly created ―catchment basin‖ enforcement team

40,000

b)

Support and training to the Municipalities to enforce the plan

10,000

c)

Investment to create sanitation facilities for recreational facilities,

d)

Installation of septic tanks for rural (low-density) residences and businesses for connection to a sewerage system

4-Maintenance and control, communication for pollution prevention a) Control of the pollution sources external support b) Enforcement team and vehicle c) Enforcement team training

250,000 70,000 5000 18400 13000

d)

Maintenance of equipment Lakeside recreation facility Maintenance Septic Tank annual service/emptying

130000

e)

Communication for pollution prevention

20 000

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E- CAPITAL EXPENDITURES & OPERATING EXPENSES The capital and one-off expenditures include items to plan and realize the zones, consistent with legislation, such as: - The purchase of gauging station for precipitations, - Preparation of Catchment Area Development – Protection Plans, including land use designations, - Investment to create authorized park/recreational facilities, one per reservoir, including sanitation facilities, - Installation of septic tanks for rural (low-density) residences and businesses, which are not planned for connection to a sewerage system, - Outfitting elements for the newly created MESP ―catchment basin‖ enforcement team, - External support for training or carrying out operation of the data processing and tasks for data validation, - Consultancy or human resources for the inventory and characterization of the pollution sources and other pressure on the reservoir waters.

The recurring operating expenses include: -

The salaries for the development of the monitoring programme and validation process improvement, The salaries and annual costs regarding the two enforcement officers, whose mandate is to patrol the three reservoirs to control the enforcement of rules and legislation, Education of citizens on proper use/penalize illegal water resources use, Maintenance plus park and septic tank.

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Table 37: Costs for data collection and protection of drinking water resource.

Data collection for surface water resource A. Capital Expenditures

Unit price

Unit

150,000

Euro/Report-plan

200,000

Euro/Report-plan

Number

Total

1- Development of Monitoring Plan & Protocols a. Iber-River Basin

1

150,000

2. Equipment Replacement/Augmentation a. Monitoring Stations

1

3. External support

A. Operational Expenditures, annual

200,000 150,000

Unit price

Unit

a. Expand capacity for data collection

3,240

Euro/Person-y ear

b. External technical support

15,000

Euro/Person-y ear

18,000

Costs/y ear

Unit price

Unit

a.Gazivoda Reservoir b.Batlava Reservoir c.Badovc Reservoir

150,000 100,000 100,000

Euro/meter/square

d.Land Purchase Inventary pollution sources Protection area refinement e.Basic lakeside/recreation/sanitation/facility

25

Euro/meter/square

Number

1- Monitoring & Data Collection Team

2. Monitoring Team Logistics a. Running Costs

Protection of Drinking water resource A. Capital Expenditures

1

3,240

1

15,000

1 1

18000

Number

1- Catchment Area Development-Protection Plan Euro/meter/square Euro/meter/square

150,000

1 1 1 15,000 1 3

150,000 100,000 100,000 375,000 50,000 50,000 450,000

2.Enforcement Team Logistics a.Vehicle b.Team 4x4 Outfitting 3.Septic Tanks a.Residential

40,000 5,000

Euro/Vehicule Euro/Items

2,500

Euro/Tank

b.Commercial

3,500

Euro/Tank

B. Operational Expenditures 1.Enforcement Team training

100 20

40,000 10,000 0 250,000 70,000

Expenditures annual

3,240

2.Enforcement Team vehicule 3.Lakeside recreation facility Maintenance 4.Septic Tank annual service/emptying

1 2

1,000

Euro/Person-y ear

4

5400 10000 maintenance/y ear

1

maintenance/y ear

1 120

12960 5400 10000 120,000

Graph 42: value of criteria for collection

Score for all the criteria: Score = 50

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBĂ‹R RIVER BASIN AND IBĂ‹R LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 43: value of criteria for protection of drinking water resource

Score for all the criteria: Score = 56

F-

BENEFITS - PROTECTION OF DRINKING WATER RESOURCE a) Affect greater information levels, which will enable: -

better decision making for water resources management, more efficient utilization of resources. b) Maintain raw water quality supply, which will provide:

-

the direct benefit of reducing the respective drinking water treatment plant operational costs (chemicals, energy, materials),

-

indirectly, positive economic benefits, as per health statistics related to a secure drinking water supply complied by the World Health Organisation in 2004 as regards the Millennium Development Goals, the watershed population will gain benefits of: o lower medical expenses, o reduce absenteeism from their jobs.

page 174/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 38: Benefits for protection of drinking water resources.

LEAKAGE REDUCTION Costs A - Capital Expenditure

Unit price Unit

Number

Per year

26919000 TOTAL

1- Install PVC-Concrete Liner in Open Channel Euro/linear

a.Iber-Lepenc Canal 2. Refurbish existing Existing Water Mains a. Pipelines in Main Settlements

1000 meter

25000

25000000 1750000

50

Euro/linear meter

35000

B - Operational Expenditures,annual 1. Existing Personnel with budgeted resources

12000 Euro/linear

a. Iber Lepenc Canal

0.2 meter

60000

Benefits LEAKAGE REDUCTION A. Revenues 1 Community Water Supply a. Per Water Savings in system 1 demand b. Per Water Savings in system 2 demand

169000 4280389

0.0158 Euro/cubic meter 10%

11490000 mil mc

181542

10%

3325000 mil mc

52535

B. Public Health & safety 1 Safe Drinking Water (Medical costs Avoided) 2 Safe Drinking Water (Sick days avoided)

10%

499000

30662

10%

499000

3150

C. Economic development 1 Economic bais of Community Water Supply

5%

4012500

page 175/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 44: Net Present Value for measure/project Protection of water supply reservoirs.

Measure 1: Protection of Water Supply Reservoirs Gross Overview of Costs - Benefits

10,000 NPV 5,000 Externalities 0

Revenue -5,000

CapEx OpEx

-10,000

-15,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 NPV

Annual Values, at 10% discount rate, in 1,000 Euro

15,000

The economic assessment of Measure 1 indicates that it is an acceptable use of resources, as the Net Present Value calculation yields a high, positive value (Graph 44) and the benefit-to-cost ratio exceeds 1.0 ((see Annex M-1). Therefore, since this measure results in net benefits to society, it is suitable for further evaluation in the next step of investment development (beyond the scope of this study).

The key elements of the Cost-Benefits Analysis for Measure 1, Protection of Drinking Water Resources of Reservoirs, are: Costs: NPV of Euro 11.7 million (2035) 



CAPEX: significant one-time investment costs of about Euro 10 million, related to the preparation of Protection Zone Plans, land purchase for headwaters conservation areas and centralized/decentralized wastewater collection and treatment facilities OPEX: annual costs of about Euro 160,000 per year regarding the running costs for Catchment Basin Enforcement Team and the wastewater facilities

Benefits: NPV of Euro 23.9 million (2035) 

Externalities: o Public Health and Safety: Benefits are estimated at about Euro 1.4 million per year, according to headwaters protection/conservation measures to maintain/improve raw water quality to the benefit of the study area population (fewer sick days, lower medical costs, less flooding damage)

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

o o o o

Economic development: Benefits are estimated at about Euro 125,000 per year, based on the establishment of park areas in three headwaters conservation areas (at about 80,000 visitors per year) Environmental integrity: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure is not considered directly responsible for maintaining biological minimum flows (from the respective reservoirs) Integrated Water Resource Management: Benefits from headwaters protection and conservation from development are estimated at about Euro 800,000 per year.

Emergency – Risk aversion: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure provides no emergency scenario relief.

Net Benefits: NPV of Euro 12. 2 million (2035) Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (via NPV over 25 years): 2. 0 Measure 1 results in more benefits than costs.

Measure 1 is suitable for further evaluation and development.

G- STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS People will be more confident if the water is safe.

The people involved in tourism activity will benefit from a clean environment without health hazard for their clients.

The administration will strengthen their capacity to respond to general public needs.

H- TARGET GROUP – BENEFICIARIES The Ministry in charge of environment will increase its capacity to enforce legislation on water resource protection.

The Regional water companies will benefit from the improvement of the water quality and can improve coordination with the Ministry and Municipalities.

The Municipalities will avoid future costs in case of water resource degradation and increase their capacity to protect natural resources, especially by introducing concrete measures in their development plan.

The polluters will benefit from technical and possibly financial support to apply good practices for their activities or for implementing sewage treatment.

I-

IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS 

Assumed project start date: 2012



Duration of the project implementation: 3 years

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBĂ‹R RIVER BASIN AND IBĂ‹R LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

IV.2.

PROJECT PROTECTION

2:

GROUNDWATER

KNOWLEDGE

AND

A- PROJECT TITLE: Groundwater knowledge and protection B- BENEFICIARY INSTITUTIONS Regional Water companies Ministry in charge of Environment Municipalities around reservoirs

C- SITUATION ANALYSIS 1)

GROUNDWATER KNOWLEDGE, PROTECTION AND SUSTAINABLE USE Abstraction of good-quality and protected groundwater is an alternative to the use of water from the reservoirs. This resource is not well known and in a number of places it has been contaminated, is too salty or includes unwanted minerals.

Appropriate investigation of this resource can provide an alternative source for water supply and contribute to water security. In more remote hilly and mountainous areas, groundwater resources are especially important. There, water security in terms of access to non-contaminated water should be considered as providing important socio-economical benefits.

2)

HYDRO-GEOLOGY Since there are very few accessible useful documents on groundwater, it is necessary to collect basic hydrogeological information which is missing. The EUfunded Drini river Basin project (2008-2010) has developed a methodology for data collection in wells to characterise groundwater bodies.

Staff in the Water Department was trained for this methodology and is able to continue such data collection. The organisation of such data collection still requires external guidance. Support to initiate such activities is required.

A priority would be to invest in investigation boreholes to have a better knowledge of the available resource and to carry out groundwater assessment in terms of quantity and quality and develop a sustainable program for their use.

Extensive data interpretation is needed to improve the knowledge on groundwater.

Awaiting that sufficient skill on data interpretation is built in the water administration, individual local and international experts can temporarily fill the staffing gaps and help collate, interpret and present hydrogeological data and information.

In the long-term, an increase in the WD and HMIK analytical capacity could be achieved in the following ways: -

By the recruitment of staff who have a combination of water resource (e. g. hydrogeology or hydrology), computer and GIS skills.

Additional expertise could be gained by sending young staff members on M. Sc. courses and older staff member on short-term training courses.

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

D- LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

Total budget Euro 1.37 million €

Groundwater knowledge and protection Overall objective

Objectively verifiable indicators

Sources Verification

IPA budget: €

of Assumptions

Better know the groundwater for their sustainable use in the future and increase water security for population connected and not- connected to piped water supply Project purpose For the Ibër Basin: Develop step by step the knowledge on groundwater resource and provide public access to this Production of studies information on surface and deep groundwater System for access to groundwater resource Develop efficient protection practices for ground water which can be used for drinking water

Protection zone implemented Control of their implementation

Results 1.

Collect information on ground water bodies in the Ibër River Basin

2.

First steps of the implementation of Surveillance quantitative and qualitative monitoring networks

3.

Groundwater exploration and basic description for a the Ibër river basin area

4.

Key actors are implementing good practices for the protection of drinking water protection zones

Number and quality of studies

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBĂ‹R RIVER BASIN AND IBĂ‹R LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Activities 1.

2.

Means

Costs

Assumptions

Carry out a ground water pilot project a)

Measure the parameters of alluvial groundwater bodies in Drini River Basin

Equipment and material for measurement, Transport, Local staff for measurements

10 000

b)

Describe and record characteristic of the ground water bodies

External supervision

20,000

Transport

2000 Bidding for the drilling of the boreholes and installation of 400000 the monitoring points

Install quantitative and qualitative groundwater monitoring networks a)

Construction Bidding Document and specification and sub-contracting the construction work

Construction works contract b)

Supervision of the construction phase of the monitoring boreholes testing

External supervision Drilling Engineer and Hydrogeologist 5 months WD and HMIK staff and transport

c)

Supervise installation of the monitoring equipment and interpretation of data

d)

Evaluate, validate and record the monitoring data

Hydrogeologist -2 months

100 000 10000

20000

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBĂ‹R RIVER BASIN AND IBĂ‹R LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Activities 3.

Means

Identification of significant pressures on Groundwater Bodies

Costs 150,000

a)

Determine the location and abstraction rates of all significant water sources and Interpret Orthophotos supervision by hydrogeologist

Hydrogeologist -7 months

70000

b)

Determine the location of major pollution sources

Local staff for 7 months.

Budget for photos, transport and equipment

150000

4. Protection of water resource

Assumptions

Means

Costs

a)

Support to farmers and household to introduce good practices in the protection zone of drinking water supply

Staff and fencing of the protection zone

50 000

b)

Control of the implementation f measures

Staff to control, transport

10 000

Assumptions

page 181/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 45: Net Present value for measure/project Protection of groundwater Resources.

Measure 2: Protection of Groundwater Resources Gross Overview of Costs - Benefits

3,000 2,500 NPV

2,000

1,500

Externalities

1,000

Revenue 500 CapEx

0 -500

OpEx

-1,000 -1,500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 NPV

Annual Values, at 10% discount rate, in 1,000 Euro

3,500

The economic assessment of Measure 2 indicates that it is an acceptable use of resources, as the Net Present Value calculation yields a high, positive value (Graph 45) and the benefit-to-cost ratio exceeds 1.0 ((see Annex M-2). Therefore, since this measure results in net benefits to society, it is suitable for further evaluation in the next step of investment development (beyond the scope of this study).

The key elements of the Cost-Benefits Analysis for Measure 2, Knowledge and Protection of Groundwater Resources are: Costs: NPV of Euro 1.37 million (2035)  

CAPEX: significant one-time investment costs of about Euro 875,000, related to the development of a groundwater monitoring network and establishment of ground water protection zones.

OPEX: annual costs of about Euro 50,000 per year regarding data collection, validation and interpretation of the groundwater monitoring network.

Benefits: NPV of Euro 4.25 million (2035) 

Externalities: o Public Health and Safety: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure is not considered to directly influence this aspect o Economic development: Relatively minimal benefits are obtained in terms of wages during project realization. o Environmental integrity: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure is not considered to directly influence this aspect page 182/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

o o

Integrated Water Resource Management: Benefits from sound water resource management per the groundwater monitoring network are estimated at about Euro 400,000 per year.

Emergency – Risk aversion: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure provides no emergency scenario relief.

Net Benefits: NPV of Euro 2.87 million (2035) Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (via NPV over 25 years): 3.1 Measure 2 results in more benefits than costs, according to Cost Benefit Analysis.

Measure 2 is suitable for further evaluation and development.

E- STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS People will be more confident if the water is safe.

The people involved in tourism activity will benefit from a clean environment without health hazard for their clients The administration will strengthen its capacity to respond to general public needs.

F-

TARGET GROUP – BENEFICIARIES The population in villages not-connected to piped water supply.

The private sector, which might be interested by water resource for production purpose.

The Ministry in charge of environment will increase its capacity to enforce legislation on water resource protection.

The Regional water companies will benefit from the improvement of the water quality.

The Municipalities will avoid future costs in case of water resource degradation and increase their capacity to protect natural resources, especially by introducing concrete measures in their development plan.

The polluters will benefit from technical and possibly financial support to apply good practices for their activities or for implementing sewage treatment.

G- IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS Assumed project start date: 2012 Duration of the project: 2 years .

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WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

IV.3.

PROJECT 3: PROVISION OF SUFFICIENT WATER OF GOOD QUALITY THROUGH THE IBËR LEPENC CANAL A- PROJECT TITLE: Provision of sufficient water of good quality through the Ibër Lepenc Canal B- BENEFICIARY INSTITUTIONS    

Ibër Lepenc Company Regional Water companies Ministry in charge of Environment Municipalities along the canal

C- SITUATION ANALYSIS Inefficiency of conveyance: the transmission system inefficiencies in System 1 (Ibër-Lepenc Canal) and the key transmission pipelines serving the main settlements within System 1 and 2 are aged, poorly maintained and, thus, experiencing physical leakages, estimated at 10-40%.

There is a good potential for improvement at an affordable cost. The location and type of water supply and irrigation networks to rehabilitate are shown in Figure 22.

Highly qualified supervision is needed to make sure that appropriate technology is used and quality of work is up to international standards.

Pollution pressure on the canal: in many locations along the Ibër-Lepenc Canal human and livestock have unhindered access to the canal which can lead to pollution and degradation of the water quality. There is a need to implement an effective mechanism to ensure that the pollution pressure will not increase year by year.

Risk of disruption -- Operation of gates in normal and in emergency situation: the current manual system to operate the gates and other equipment for bulk water transmission and distribution along the Ibër-Lepenc Canal is functional, but could be optimized for more efficient allocations, better real-time responsiveness and to site-specific conditions.

It is also important to improve the knowledge on the water used for drinking water, agriculture, and power generation.

A- Water in the canal and pipelines: measurement of flow through the dam and canals and of water quality Good quality measurements of the water flowing in the pipelines and canal of the losses are required. This process has started with the support of KfW in the Prishtina Regional Water Company and should be continued and extended to other Water Regional Companies. The GIS of Prishtina RWC has been reactivated.

Regular and systematic measurements of good quality are needed to have sufficiently accurate records from one year to the other and be able to assess the improvement and shortcomings in order to define priorities measures.

B – Improvement of the knowledge of water used for agriculture page 184/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBĂ‹R RIVER BASIN AND IBĂ‹R LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Some basic information regarding population growth or migration, crop production, use of water, fertiliser, pesticides exist in various studies of official reports. But it is difficult to assess the degree of confidence that can be given to this information.

There is a need to better investigate the shortcomings in the different steps of the production of publicly released statistics. Plans for improvement should be implemented. The aim would be to set up formal cost effective data collection processes and progressively work for achieving European standards.

A long term program for data collection on agriculture and irrigation management requires methodological support and institutional capacity building. Specific topics need to be investigated as soil fertility decreases, arable land is lost due to unregulated urbanization, informal irrigation, land speculation and urban sprawl, and agriculture vulnerability to climate change. a) Information on possible export crops and their markets should be collected and widely disseminated among farmers and professionals in the agricultural product trade. Inter-institutional relations must be strengthened in order to avoid duplication or insufficient knowledge of particular issue, b) A local climatic station to precise monitor variables such as temperature, humidity, wind, sun radiation and rain, would be essential for establishing more precise water balances and irrigation requirements. On top of this, resources could be devoted to disseminating information and timely advice for irrigation to farmers, c) Water flows and water quality measurements of the water use for irrigation is needed (inflow and outflow including the WFD dangerous substances).

To set up local field experimental research station, establishing agro-technical references for specific production systems including soil characteristics, rain infiltration rate, available soil moisture, root depth, crop coefficient, and yield response. This will be helpful for establishing good practices, guidelines for irrigation management at farm and irrigated perimeter levels.

page 185/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Total budget: € 31.

D- LOGICAL FRAMEWORK Provision of sufficient water of good quality through the Ibër Lepenc Canal Overall objective

2 million Objectively verifiable indicators

Sources of Verification

Improvement of water quality of bulk water

Water quality analysis

IPA budget: €

Increase safety and efficiency of the conveyance of good quality of water in the Ibër Lepenc Canal and the main distribution network for current and future uses Project purpose 1.

2.

3.

4.

Water savings via the reduction of inefficiencies in existing infrastructure, due to leakages Reduction of the risk of accidental pollution by limiting access and thus reduce/eliminate the pollution pathway Improve the information on the bulk water conveyed and distributed and pressure on the canal Efficient water allocations via the Gazivoda Reservoir and Ibër-Lepenc Canal Results 1. A reduction of 15 % of leakage providing water for other users without decreasing the water flow in the Ibër river and thus avoiding issue on the reduction of water flowing at the border with Serbia 2. Increased protection from pollution of canal surroundings 3. Improvement of the information of bulk water used 4. Improvement of the possibility of efficient and flexible water allocation

page 186/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Activities A- Water savings via the reduction of inefficiencies in existing infrastructure, due to leakages, reduction technical leakages a) Rehabilitation of the structure of the canal in open air of the Ibër - Lepenc Canal (grossly estimated at 25 km) b)

Refurbish key transmission and main pipelines serving the major settlements, Mitrovica and Prishtina (grossly estimated at 35 km) c) Establish budget sources to affect proactive operations and maintenance B- Improvement of information on water flow, water used and water quality in the canal and main conveyance system a) water used by agriculture b) water used to generate power c) water used for other sectors d) quality and quantity of water used for drinking water purposes C- Improve water quality by limiting access to and despoliation of the Ibër-Lepenc Canal a) implement protection measure and rehabilitate protection against runoff b) installation of fencing where possible intrusion might generate accidental pollution

Means

Costs Euro

Assumptions

25 000 000

175 0000 170 000 20 000

2 250 000 1 750 000

There are already revenues from the beginning in the initial years when no water shortage exists. The economic assessment raises the question, how can water saved (from reduced losses) become water sold in years where there is no scarcity of water?

It should be noted that single localized major leakage can be repaired rather quickly. However this may not improve significantly the efficiency of the conveyance. To achieve an important reduction of the leakage, the condition survey of the canal has shown that this must be achieved through repairs that stop or reduce the continuous leakage due to old joints and cracks in the lining.

Two different methods of cost estimation have been used. Both of them led to the cost of 1 million EUR/kilometer for a complete renovation of the canal. This might be a high-end price, but if well done, the repairs can last more than 30 years without much need of maintenance and rehabilitation. This would provide a large amount of additional bulk water that can be used in the future without any other investment.

page 187/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBĂ‹R RIVER BASIN AND IBĂ‹R LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

D - Improvement of Equipment for efficient Water Allocation a) A central SCADA (supervisory control and data acquisition) control unit located at a central location, such as IL headquarters b) Gates/Weirs within the canal, at strategic locations to affect water distribution to bulk customers, including automatic sensory (water level, gate position, etc.) and operations equipment c) Install Automatic sensory and operation equipment d) Establish budget source to affect proactive operations and maintenance (per year) E - Training young professionals to use modern tools and equipment a) Decision making and reaction during exceptional events b) Improvement of maintenance c) Emergency plan design and regular exercise

250 000 225 000 450 000 45 000 20 000 20 000 20 000

page 188/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Graph 46: Net Present Value for the measure/project 3 Improvement of Ibër-Lepenc Canal.

Measure 3: Improvement of Iber - Lepenc Canal Gross Overview of Costs - Benefits

5,000 0 NPV -5,000 Externalities

-10,000 -15,000

Revenue

-20,000

CapEx

-25,000

OpEx

-30,000 -35,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 NPV

Annual Values, at 10% discount rate, in 1,000 Euro

10,000

The economic assessment of Measure/Project 3 indicates that it is an acceptable use of resources, as the Net Present Value calculation yields a modest but positive value (Graph 46) and the benefit-to-cost ratio exceeds 1.0 ((see Annex M-3). Therefore, since this measure results in net benefits to society, it is suitable for further evaluation in the next step of investment development (beyond the scope of this study).

The key elements of the Cost-Benefit Analysis for Measure/Project 3, Provision of sufficient water of good quality through the Ibër Lepenc Canal, are: Costs: NPV of Euro 31.2 million (2035) 



CAPEX: significant one-time investment costs of o about Euro 25 million for the relining of the Ibër-Lepenc Canal (to reduce leakages and infiltration), plus about Euro 1 million for installation and training in automatic canal weir system; o about Euro 2.5 million to reduce pollution pathways via sedimentation from side channels and unhygienic canal access of livestock/solid waste.

OPEX: annual costs of about Euro 80,000 per year regarding additional maintenance and pollution removal from the canal.

Benefits: NPV of Euro 35.1 million (2035)

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM



Revenues: revenues are allocated conservatively, according to existing (2010) tariff rates and for 50 percent of all bulk customer categories only. This integrates the gains from avoided losses, plus qualitative gains in water quality.



Externalities: o

o o o

o

Public Health and Safety: Benefits are estimated at about Euro 110,000 per year, according to measures which will improve raw water quality to the benefit of the System 1 population (fewer sick days, lower medical costs, lower treatment costs).

Economic development: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure is not considered to directly influence this aspect.

Environmental integrity: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure is not considered to directly influence this aspect Integrated Water Resource Management: Benefits of about Euro 1.4 million per year from more efficient allocation capacities per the automatic weir system and resulting sound water resource management for greater in-basin water availability per more efficient use of existing resources.

Emergency – Risk aversion: Benefits of about Euro 950,000 per year are added. This measure provides greater system security via improved integrity and resiliency of the existing Ibër-Lepenc Canal – a primary water supply component.

Net Benefits: NPV of Euro 3.9 million (2035) Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (via NPV over 25 years): 1.1 Measure 3 results in more benefits than costs.

Measure 3 is suitable for further evaluation and development.

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

A- Leakage reduction

Graph 47: Localisation and type of conveyance system to be rehabilitated to save water (WEAP model SCE/OIEau 2010).

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 39: Costs and benefits for leakage reduction in the IL Canal.

LEAKAGE REDUCTION Costs A - Capital Expenditure

Unit price Unit

Number

Per year

26919000 TOTAL

1- Install PVC-Concrete Liner in Open Channel Euro/linear

a.Iber-Lepenc Canal 2. Refurbish existing Existing Water Mains a. Pipelines in Main Settlements

1000 meter

25000

25000000 1750000

50

Euro/linear meter

35000

B - Operational Expenditures,annual 1. Existing Personnel with budgeted resources

12000 Euro/linear

a. Iber Lepenc Canal

0.2 meter

60000

Benefits LEAKAGE REDUCTION A. Revenues 1 Community Water Supply a. Per Water Savings in system 1 demand b. Per Water Savings in system 2 demand

169000 4280389

0.0158 Euro/cubic meter 10%

11490000 mil mc

181542

10%

3325000 mil mc

52535

B. Public Health & safety 1 Safe Drinking Water (Medical costs Avoided) 2 Safe Drinking Water (Sick days avoided)

10%

499000

30662

10%

499000

3150

C. Economic development 1 Economic bais of Community Water Supply

5%

Graph 48: Leakage protection - Total Score for criteria

Score = 56

4012500

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

B- Canal Protection Table 40: Cost and benefits for canal protection CANAL PROTECTION Costs A - Capital Expenditure

Unit price Unit

Number Per year

TOTAL

1- Protection from runoff of Iber channel Euro/line ar meter

a.Iber-Lepenc Canal 2. Installing 2 meter high fencing a. Pipelines in Main Settlements

1 250 000 1 750 000

50

Euro/line ar meter

35000

Euro/line ar meter

60000

B - Operational Expenditures,annual 1. Existing Personnel with budgeted resources a. Conduct poractive O&M

12000 0.2

169000

CANAL

Benefits PROTECTION A. Revenues 1 Community Water Supply a. Per Water Savings in system 1 demand b. Per Water Savings in system 2 demand

10% 10%

B. Public Health & safety 1 Safe Drinking Water (Medical costs Avoided) 2 Safe Drinking Water (Sick days avoided) 3 Reduced water treatment materials & costs

50%

0.6

64520

50%

0.1

6629 5000

C. Economic development 1 Economic bais of Community Water Supply

5%

Graph 49: Canal Protection - Total score for criteria

Score = 50

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

C - Equipment – Water measurement and regulation Graph 50: Equipment for efficient water allocation

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Table 41: Costs and Benefits for Equipment – water regulation

EQUIPEMENT - WATER Costs REGULATION A - Capital Expenditure

Unit

Unit price

Number

Per year

TOTAL

1- Design & Install SCADA main control centre a.Iber-Lepenc Canal

250000

Euro/unit

1

250000

15000

Euro/unit

15

225000

30000

Euro/unit

15

450000

2. Installing weirs gates a.Iber-Lepenc Canal 3 Install Automatic sensory and operation equipment a.Iber-Lepenc Canal B - Operational Expenditures,annual

20 years

1. Existing Personnel with budgeted resources a. Conduct poractive O&M

500

Euro/unit/y ear

15

7500

0

2500

Euro/unit/y ear

15

37500

0

2.Energy Costs a. Running Costs EQUIPEMENT - WATER Benefits REGULATION A. Revenues 1 Community Water Supply a. Per Water Savings in system 1 demand

0.0158 5%

5745000

Euro/cubic meter

mil mc

90771

B. Public Health & safety 1 Safe Drinking Water (Medical costs Avoided) 2 Safe Drinking Water (Sick days avoided) C. Economic development 1 Economic bais of Community Water Supply

5%

3

per 1 euro invested in WS

Graph 51: Total score for criteria equipment for water measurement and regulation

Score 55

138750

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

E- STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS People will be more confident if the water is safe.

The people involved in tourism activity will benefit from a clean environment without health hazard for their clients.

The administration will strengthen their capacity to respond to general public needs. .

F-

TARGET GROUP – BENEFICIARIES The Ministry in charge of environment will increase its capacity to enforce legislation on water resource protection.

The Regional Water Companies will benefit from the improvement of the water quality and can improve coordination with the Ministry and Municipalities.

The Municipalities will avoid future costs in case of water resource degradation and increase their capacity to protect natural resources, especially by introducing concrete measures in their development plan.

The polluters will benefit from technical and possibly financial support to apply good practices for their activities or for implementing sewage treatment.

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

IV.4.

STUDY OF OPTIONS FOR PROVIDING BETTER WATER SECURITY IN CASE OF EMERGENCY

A- PROJECT TITLE: Study of options for providing better water security in case of major emergencies B- BENEFICIARY INSTITUTIONS -

Regional Water companies Ministry in charge of Environment Municipalities around reservoirs Power generation companies

C- SITUATION ANALYSIS The current reliance on a singular water transmission mechanism (Ibër-Lepenc Canal) raises vulenrability in the cities of Prishtina and Mitrovica in case of emergency situations.

During the Consultant‘s canal survey, the team observed landslides near the canal. Runoff during rainy events also concentrates sediment in sensitive unprotected zones, as some former protection against runoff along the canal trajectory is not functioning properly anymore. The region is also under seismic risk, as underlined by the small earthquake occurringin Prishtina in September 2010.

Many current and planned uses are or will depend on the IL canal. Small industrial and business activities as well the power plant cooling require water security. Disruption of the flow in the IL canal for whatever reason will cause large socio-economic loss for Mitrovica and Prishtina and the river basin as a whole.

In the event of seasonal water shortage, the tension between users can be exacerbated as a growing number of important uses will depend on this single source.

There are other options to increase water security in the long run but they require large investments. They will not be completed before several years and cannot be envisaged to cover the new demand for Prishtina water supply treatment plant or other investment already planned.

The main concept is the diversification of sources for supply. This can be achieved by various means such as: a) The introduction of a pipeline directly from the reservoir (pressurized or if possible by gravity) to avoid water conveyance disruption and increase the security of bulk water quantity and quality for drinking water production

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

b) c) d) e)

(piped systems generally have much lower water loss than concrete lined canals, and are fully closed and protected)., The construction of dams to store water in altitude where the water will be naturally protected The construction of water storage in a number of excavations not far from the canal which can create an interesting buffer reservoir, The construction of facilities in order to be able to pump groundwater of good quality in the canal or in pipelines in case the canal conveyance is disrupted upstream or the water is contaminated by dangerous substances.

The construction of interconnections in between the water supply networks to increase the flexibility and reliability of the entire system.

Figure 24: Concept of interconnections between the Water Systems in the Ibër River Basin.

Figure 25 shows the various options of water security investments including the construction of a reservoir or of a pipeline directly in a trench which can provide an alternative source of water for Mitrovica and Prishtina. This would provide many advantages in the long run; especially, it would provide flexibility and much higher in the water supply management. In case there are alternative routes, it is far less cumbersome to temporarily disrupt the flow in a section of the network where repairs are being carried out.

In the medium and long term, these measures might be interesting options. Further investigations are needed to estimate costs of such work.

New water storages. It is recommended to investigate and gain knowledge on the technical detail and the social and environmental aspects of various options to secure water in case of emergency in the future.

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBĂ‹R RIVER BASIN AND IBĂ‹R LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Figure 25: Options for diversifying the sources and routes for drinking water supply provision The increase of the storage capacity should be designed to simultaneously provide the opportunity to pump water up to high-located storage during periods with low tariff of electricity and generate electricity when the tariff of electricity is high (peak demand). This will require that new equipment be installed.

There may be also other investment needed in the future in case irrigation develops. Rehabilitation and development of the irrigated perimeter would have to be carried out. As a matter of fact, there are currently many places where houses have been and are being constructed inside irrigation perimeters.

If new water storage for drinking water and buffer reservoirs are constructed in order to ensure continuous cooling water conveyance, there will be fewer constraints for using water for irrigation and undertaking; this would require specific investments on the IL canal.

The construction of new reservoirs can have other benefits such as developing local tourism and thus create non-agricultural jobs in rural areas.

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Creation of new small or medium size water storages Table 42: Characteristic of possible water storages in Ibër River basin

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Map 23: Location of possible sites for water storage in the Ibër River Basin.

Map 24: Precipitation distribution and the location of possible sites of water storage

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

In case there are projects for small scale hydro power, an environmental impact study should be carried out to identify measures to minimize the impact of the future infrastructure on the river ecosystem. Technical assistance will be required to support the Government in developing tender packages in case public-private partnerships would be envisaged.

It would also be advisable that businesses which start or restart activities in industrial areas which are receiving subsidies propose a plan for limiting the pollution of their activities in the soil, air and water.

Technical support to introduce the ―best available technique‖ (BAT) also needs to be developed. A programme to support the implementation of proper sewage systems in households that are not connected to public sewage is important to improve the public health situation where the population is relying on groundwater for drinking water supply, irrigation and animal watering.

Map 25: Catchment of a possible reservoir in the Drenas River Basin.

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM

Figure 26: Presentation of a site for the construction of reservoir, as alternative source of water in case of emergency.

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Total budget: 400 000 €

D- LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

IPA budget: €

Study of options for providing better water security in case of major emergency Overall objective

Objectively verifiable indicators

Diversify the source of water to be able to avoid socio-economic losses in case of emergency due to natural events, accidents, major pollution or disruption of conveyance Project purpose indicators

Sources of Verification

Verification

Assumptions

Verification

Assumptions

To diversify the source of water supply and increase the flexibility of the system to minimize losses in case of major problem on the main conveyance. Provide alternative source in remote places.

Results

indicators

Clear technical and environmental presentation of the various options to be consider on the long run to deal with emergency situation and replace the old infrastructure of Technical reports water supply a) New storage in altitude with possible production of hydroelectricity b) Ground water resource for emergency c) New routes for drinking water supply

Details on the various options and their advantages and shortcomings.

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Activities 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Means

Study the various options which have likely to have technical, social and environmental acceptance Describe the technical details of these options Analyze the environmental impact of each or of combination of these options Organize a public debate over the various options Propose long term investments and the possible revenue to cover the investments

Costs

Assumptions

400 000

The Cost benefit analysis was not carried out on the study itself but on possible large investments that might be considered in the long run after 2020 when the water demand will be larger that today due to increased population and commercial activity around Prishtina and in central Kosovo as a whole.

Of course the cost estimates of these large investments need to be refined during the further study.

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Measure 4: Study of Water Security Contingencies Gross Overview of Costs - Benefits

Annual Values, at 10% discount rate, in 1,000 Euro

60,000 40,000 20,000 NPV 0 Externalities -20,000

Revenue -40,000 CapEx -60,000 OpEx

-80,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 NPV

-100,000

Graph 52: Net Present Value of Measure/Project 4 – Study of water security contingencies The economic assessment of Measure/Project 4 indicates that it is an acceptable use of resources, as the Net Present Value calculation yields a large but positive value (Graph 52) and the benefit-to-cost ratio exceeds 1.0 ((see Annex M-4).

Therefore, since this measure results in net benefits to society, it is suitable for further evaluation in the next step of investment development (beyond the scope of this study).

The key elements of the Cost-Benefits Analysis for Measure/Project 4: Study of Options for Providing Better Water Security in Case of Emergency, are: Costs: NPV of Euro 82.3 million (2035) 



CAPEX: significant one-time investment costs of o about Euro 400,000 to conduct the study (Water Sector Contingencies - Scenarios, Strategy & Action Plan) o an indicative investment budget of about Euro 78 million to develop contingency water supply facilities, such as reservoir (Euro 61 million), ground water wellfield (Euro 2 million) and parallel pipeline (Euro 15 million).

OPEX: annual costs of about Euro 375,000 per year regarding the operation of such contingency facilities, primarily the dam/reservoir.

Benefits: NPV of Euro 132.5 million (2035) 

Revenues: revenues of Euro 63,000 per year are added based on the addition of 4 million cubic meters per year of new water resources (based on additional groundwater resource of 150 l/s operating at 20 hours per day; conservative estimate, likely more resources possible via dam/storage facility), according to existing (2010) tariff rates. page 206/211

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO IBËR RIVER BASIN AND IBËR LEPENC WATER SYSTEM



Externalities: o Public Health and Safety: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure is not considered to directly influence this aspect. o Economic development: According to the addition of new water resources (via groundwater and dam/storage facilities) and made available to bulk customers, commercial benefits are added at three times the investment amount, less land purchase (totalling about Euro 113 million) through the evaluation period. o Environmental integrity: Neither cost nor benefits are added as this Measure is not considered to directly influence this aspect o Integrated Water Resource Management: Benefits from sound water resource management per the addition of new, sustainable resources within the basin are estimated at about Euro 825,000 per year, calculated per the 2035 bulk category community water supply demand in System 1. o Emergency – Risk aversion: Benefits of about Euro 950,000 per year are added. This measure provides greater system security via greater backup and parallel facilities for improved integrity and resiliency in bulk water supply (presumably for the existing System 1, and so per added security totalling 10 percent of the 2035 water demand for the Ibër Lepenc system bulk customer categories).

Net Benefits: NPV of Euro 50.2 million (2035) Benefit-to-Cost Ratio (via NPV over 25 years): 1.6  

Measure 4 results in more benefits than costs.

Measure 4 is suitable for further evaluation and development.

E- STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS People will be more confident if the water is safe.

The power generation and private sector will have a better environment for development of water use.

The people involved in tourism will benefit from a clean environment without health hazard for their clients.

The administration will strengthen their capacity to respond to general public needs.

F-

TARGET GROUP – BENEFICIARIES The Ministry in charge of environment will increase its capacity to secure water for all water users on the long term and contribute to economic development.

The private sector, that wants to use more water.

The Regional Water Companies will benefit from the improvement of the water quality and can improve coordination with the Ministry and Municipalities.

The Municipalities will avoid future costs in the case of water resource degradation and increase their capacity to use water.

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V. INVESTMENT PRIORITIES The report ―Kosovo – Towards A Water Strategic Action Plan‖ (2010) proposed two options as priority investment, namely a) optimization of operation of the Gazivoda dam b) reduction of leakage.

The Consultant of the current study considers that the first priority as optimum investment is to protect the Gazivoda canal and make sure that no disruption of conveyance occurs, and in the event it does occur there is sufficient emergency capacity and experience from specialised staff to deal properly with such an event.

In other words, the priority investment should target the sites on the canal where the risks are high, such as possible landslides, and other major weak points of the canal. The Ibër Lepenc Company should be supported in its effort of canal repairs, especially in terms of technical advice and supervision.

The second priority action is to protect the canal from pollution and to develop a long term strategy to restrict the access to the surrounding of the canal to authorised persons and create strong physical barriers to avoid animals and unauthorised vehicles moving close to the canal. There should be actions to make sure that the owners of houses and lands close to the canal reduce the pollution pressure on the canal.

These protective actions aiming at reducing pollution pressure should be carried out also in the main reservoirs of Gazivoda, Batllava and Badovc.

The gate operation improvement is not so urgent. Increasing the capacity of the Ibër Lepenc Canal Company to properly manage the whole infrastructure and develop plans to face growing demand is as important.

In any case, it is also important that ideas are shared between specialists and that high cost investments with high long term benefits in the future be also taken into consideration and assessed. There should not be consideration only for low cost investment.

For instance, there will be a need of further investment if ever irrigation develops.

However, irrigation development requires support, organisation, coordination in terms of marketing, irrigation practices, choice of crops, technical references, contracting with partners to insure quality of products, etc.

As another example, if ever a peak tariff for electricity is introduced, there will be incentives to develop pumped-storage reservoirs which can be useful not only for potential energy storage but also for other purposes such as possible better management of emergency crises.

Optimising the use of Gazivoda water by fine tuning the operation of turbines would be then an additional source of revenues which can facilitate the financing of investments.

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PART VI ANNEXES I. ANNEX 1: INFORMATION SOURCES 1)

Kosovo Water Master Plan– Water Department – Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, 1985

2)

Water Supply from Ibër–Lepenc Hydro System for the Proposed Kosovo C Power Plant Project, – Cowi 2008

3)

Report on the performance of Regional Water Companies - Water and Waste Regulatory Office, 2008

4)

Running out of Water – Facing the Freshwater Crisis- Scientific American: Article, page 28, 2008

5)

Gjendjia e Mbeturinave ne Kosove Report, 2008

6)

Report on the performance from Water and Waste Regulatory Office, 2009

7)

Feasibility Study for Development of New Water Source, Prishtina Regional Water Supply Project, 2009

8)

Assessment of Water Demand and Supply, and the Feasibility of the South Ibër–Lepenc Scheme, 2009

9)

Anketa e Buxhetit te Ekonomive Familijare, Ministry of Economy and Finance 2009

10)

Rezultatet e Anketes se Fuqise Punetore, Ministry of Economy and Finance 2009

11)

Environmental Flows in Water Resources Policies, Plans and Projects, World Bank Document -, 2009

12)

The Changing Face of Rural Space – Agriculture and Rural Development in the Western Balkans Book, World Bank Document 2009

13)

Reports, manuals and maps of the EU funded Project:‖Institutional Support to the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning and River Basin Authorities‖ IS-MESP-RBA –(Drini River Basin Project) GFA-OIEau –BRLingenieurie 2008- 2010

14)

Kosovo Unlocking Growth Potential: Strategies, Policies, Actions, World Bank document, 2010

15)

Geological and Hydrogeological Maps of Kosovo from the Independent Commission for Mines and Minerals (ICMM)

16)

Data collected by interviews in:

17)

Ibër-Lepenc Company (Mr. Arberor Prekazi, Mr. Gazmend Tuli, Mr. Deme Abazi from Ibër-Lepenc Prishtina and Mr. Rushdi from Ibër-Lepenc Shkabaj)

18)

Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning – Water Department

19)

Regional Water Supply Company of Prishtina

20)

Regional Water Supply Company of Mitrovica

21)

Kosovo Environment Protection Agency (KEPA)

22)

Data and pictures collected from the Survey of Ibër-Lepenc Channel

23)

Quantification and Measurements of a Minimum Set of Indicators of the Performance of Irrigation Systems, Reference document, 1995

24)

Groundwater pollution in Mitrovica and surroundings – KEPA- Balwois conference in Ohrid Macedonia - May 2008

25)

Technical Background paper – Energy Sector 7 July 2008- Experts funded by the E. C and World BANK in consultation with donors and Kosovo authorities page 209/211

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26)

Kosovo agriculture opportunities strategy – February 2010 – Booz/Allen?Hamilton USAID- Kosovo

27)

Kosovo Municipalities profiles (OSCE – 2007-2009)

28)

New water source for Prishtina and construction of the Shkabaj treatment plant Report; KOKS Ingenieure, December 2010

29)

Strategic Environment and Social Assessment – Kosovo 2008

30)

Energy strategy and policy of Kosovo

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II. ANNEX 2 -- WEAP ACTIVITIES REPORT

III. ANNEX 3 – DETAIL OF COSTS OF BENEFITS FOR THE 4 PROJECT/MEASURES

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