Wilkes Workforce Summit Full Presentation and Group Notes

Harry M. Davis, Ph.D. davishm@appstate.edu

NCBA Professor of Banking and Economist Appalachian State University March 17th, 2022

The U.S. Economy  The U.S. economy has doubled in size in the last 10

years

 GDP growth last year was 5.7% - the best rate since

the early 1980s

 Goods vs Services

U.S. Economy  Average hourly earnings increased in 2021 by 5.8%.

 The savings rate remains elevated and consumers have

about $2 trillion ready to spend

U.S. Economy  Retail Sales / Feast or Famine

 Exercise Equipment, Bicycles, Home Improvement,

Golf Courses  Port of L.A. and Long Beach/Computer Chips  Supply/Demand

U.S. Economy - Positive  The stock market is near a record level

 Corporate profits as a percent of GDP are the

highest level on record  Household wealth currently at the highest level in

history adjusted for inflation  Amazon’s market cap

S&P 500 Stock Index

Real Estate  Inventory of unsold homes is historically low (1.6

months)  Housing starts have returned to pre-pandemic levels  Home prices rose 18% last year  Affordability

U.S. Employment  The unemployment rate was 3.8% in February  We have created 20 million jobs since the pandemic – we

are still 2 million jobs short  The NFIB says 50% of their members have job openings  The NFIB in a survey found that 48% of its members

have a position that is difficult to fill – the highest rate on record  There are almost 10 million unfilled jobs

U.S. Employment  Labor force participation rate – where did everybody go?  Boomers  401K / home prices

 The cost of childcare  The minimum wage is no longer set in Washington

Fiscal Policy  Infrastructure spending = $1.2 trillion  Build Back Better Plan  Productivity?

The FED / Inflation  Inflation is rising at the highest level in 40 years  The 7.9% rate is unacceptable  Food prices increased 6.3% last year

 The FED will increase interest rates starting in March

NC Economic Situation  The unemployment rate dipped to 3.9% in January.  Our unemployment rate has been under the

national rate during the pandemic except for one month

NC Economic Situation  State revenue growth is beating expectations  Rapid population and state gross product growth

 We finally got a state budget and the highest

nominal wage increases for state employees in years

Wilkes County  The county unemployment rate was 3.0% in December  The county is consistently under the state rate  There are 43 counties at or below the counties

unemployment rate  Wilkes County ranks 68th in per capita personal

income in NC

Economic Outlook  GDP growth will be about 3.5% this year  Inflation will decline to about 3.5 - 4% this year  The US, NC, and Wilkes County labor markets will remain

tight

Economic Outlook  Wage and salary growth will run about 4-4.5% this

year

 Only COVID-19 can prevent a strong year for retail

sales

 Tourism/hospitality/restaurant spending will surge as

the delta variant fades

Economic Outlook  Existing and new home sales will mirror 2021 levels  The NC economy will continue to outperform the US

economy

Childcare, Housing, Transportation

CHILDCARE 1. Employer Driven.

Partnership for children works with families birth to age 5. Tyson gave $5000 pool to provide scholarships for employers who needed care for two weeks. Can do that with any business. Works with childcare centers in and outside of Wilkes.

Someone to invest in care center.

2. Community college helps students with childcare. NC Works Grants, Scholarship, Long Leaf fund. Early Childhood program Need More Childcare workers. Apprentice program for childcare workers.

Pathways for individuals to be a childcare giver.

Entrepreneurship more childcare businesses 3. DHHS – Childcare.gov resource for assistance programs

Per capita childcare facilities in this county vs other county? Comparative data on childcare facilities, counties, state, nationally.

Childcare on site at large businesses.

YMCA has facility to take care of kids but need staff/training for ages >6. Outdoor facility for forest childcare.

Goodwill

Covid state childhood stabilization grants. Increase wages and bonuses for childcare centers. 18 month program.

Survey if enough people that need childcare in downtown area to change zoning codes to allow child care within downtown areas.

HOUSING Fred Costello rehabbing buildings for lease as housing.

Ken Wilkesboro housing coming: three projects in the application process. Market rate town homes first time buyers. Woodfield, market rate apartment off Oakwoods road.

Corporate Housing – offer corporate-owned incentivized housing, use existing infrastructure to accommodate/solve workforce shortage, childcare.

Federal tax credit for rehabbing old mills. Affordable housing component involved. USDA Rural Dev. Housing program help fund and finance affordable housing.

Grants to help with down payments - Wilkesboro has $100,000 to “fill the gap” to help. First time home buyer grants? Wilkesboro/ North Wilkesboro/ county/ Educate and identify building stock and incentives that could be used to solve housing crisis.

Where do people go to find resources? SP collecting resources to share with employees.

Marc Hauser, water intake project, expanding water/sewer footprint. NW Change zoning ordinances for easier development and building housing.

Incentivize builders to build developments. Provide land, etc.

Warehouse space speculative TRANSPORTATION Transportation study 2020 recommendations Establish a coordination advisory committee.

Share the Ride – employers and colleges can contact to arrange carpooling.

Sharetheride.com Employer-provided transportation

College funds available for car insurance, car repairs, car payments “nontraditional” students.

Gas cards for clinicals with travel.

Partner with workforce development groups to provide similar programs until employees can establish.

Employers provide transportation? Lowe’s Shuttle

TOP3 Transportation 1. Coordination advisory committee 2. Sharetheride.com (advertise and market) 3. (county wide grant program, expansion of college’s type of incentives) Childcare 1. Apprenticeship program/pathways for employment/better wages 2. Survey to downtown residents to establish need/change zoning 3. Childcare stabilization grant Housing 1. Identify and incentivize rehab of old buildings for market rate government grant to convert old mills USDA rural Dev. Change ordinances 2. Educate more people on tax credit opportunities 3. Annexation for infrastructure

Poverty, Domestic Violence, Substance Abuse Communication/Networking and Education/Training and Support Leadership and Employee Development and Engagement Informed Policies which include plans and resources (focused on person centered solutions) Importance of: • • • • • • • • •

Connection- Referring networks, balance best practices.

Be trauma informed, understanding.

Do not fire- provide assistance/Liaison- employer connection to resources (point of contact).

Communicating shared/lived experiences.

Educating workforce and employer on well and safety - Designating someone to assist in the education Teaching life and soft skills – financial education (budget, no credit cards) Educating/upgrading skills and training Mental health resources Reviewing policies surrounding poverty domestic violence and substance abuse

Policy: • • • •

Flexible, person-centered policies Employee Care Fund – Financial Resources Hotlines Engaging unique stakeholders/Law Enforcement

What Supports Do Employers Need?

• • •

Organizing Recognizing resource organizations ARE employers Incentive based

Barriers and Overcoming: •

Fighting stigmas – addressing personally, organizational.

• • • • • • •

Bridge gap to address issues Ok to ask for help/who do they contact?

Culture of care in/at employment Training/education/information needed Ex: diversity, social/emotional training Leadership development/growth, caring for team/employees, emotional competency Full time jobs Second chance hiring

Policies, Perks, Pay Scale, Culture Pay • • • • • • • • •

Profit sharing for EEs (larger company) 100% of EEs Insurance Culture, community, workforce balance Wage progression, incentives, future plan Recruit bonus, referrals (incentives) Retention bonus (staggered – phases) OJT – Tax Credit/Incentive Subsidized Education/Apprenticeship Program Across the board pay increase

Culture • • • • • • • •

Paid volunteer time –Community (Spirit to serve) Employee engagement/project based incentives Mentorship - buddie system (especially in the first 90 days) Flexibility/ support services for the employee/ride share program - work life balance Wrap around care/strategic engagement What is a work week in today’s culture Work remote Childcare provided Cause based initiatives