THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2014
VOL. 92 | NO. 46 | $4.25
Markets Experts urge independent grading for durum | P. 6
Facing change SERVING WESTERN CANADIAN FARM FAMILIES SINCE 1923
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Immigrants tell of their emotional move to a farm in Canada. | P. 21
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INPUTS | WHEN TO BUY?
Fall good time to buy fertilizer Buy now or wait till spring? | Analysts offer predictions on nitrogen, urea and phosphate supply and prices
SASKATOON NEWSROOM
Farmers are better off buying fertilizer in fall or winter rather than waiting until spring 90 percent of the time, according to Alberta Agriculture. The department has tracked urea, ammonia and phosphate prices for the past 10 years. “There has only been one year, and that was in 2008, that spring prices were lower than fall-winter prices,” said Jennifer Stoby, an agricultural input market analyst with Alberta Agriculture. She encouraged farmers to talk with
their retailers this fall about their upcoming needs, especially for nitrogen fertilizers. “With lower crop prices, guys have been hesitant to buy fertilizer and not really making any decisions,” said Stoby. “If they do wait until spring, there might be some problems actually even getting product.” Growers who haven’t pre-bought product have faced supply shortages for the last few years, and it could be the same scenario next year. “Retails aren’t bringing in nearly as much product just to have on hand the same as they have in the past,” said Stoby. Crop input providers were stung in
2008 when they bought high-priced fertilizer in winter and then incurred substantial losses when prices fell. David Asbridge, president of NPK Fertilizer Advisory Service, said fall may be a better time to buy than winter this year because he doesn’t anticipate the usual winter downturn for many nitrogen products. He believes the lows in urea markets have already been established, largely because of record Chinese exports. “I’m not sure we’re going to see much more weakness in the urea market between now and spring,” he “We’re probably at the bottom of the urea market right now.” That jibes with comments Yara
International chief executive officer Torgeir Kvidal made during a recent conference call with investment analysts. He said Chinese urea production is down despite a significant increase in capacity, and so are exports. The country shipped 2.4 million tonnes of urea in July and August, down from 2.8 million tonnes for the same period a year ago. Kvidal said high cost producers in China are struggling with negative margins, which could result in a “significant tightening” in global urea supplies and upward pressure on prices. SEE FALL GOOD TIME TO BUY, PAGE 2
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u|xhHEEJBy00001pzYv/:' NOVEMBER 13, 2014 Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to: Box 2500, Stn. Main, Saskatoon, SK. S7K 2C4 The Western Producer is published in Saskatoon by Western Producer Publications, which is owned by GVIC Communications Corp. Publisher: Shaun Jessome Publications Mail Agreement No. 40069240
BY SEAN PRATT