THURSDAY, JULY 10, 2014
VOL. 92 | NO. 28 | $4.25
FAST TIMES AT SPRAYER U | P66
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Doug Schofer of Melville, Sask., searches for sandbags that fell off his tractor’s bucket. The road into his farm was flooded but luckily his house, barns and bins were safe. Residents of eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba scrambled to protect themselves and their belongings from floods last week. Although the water has receded for many, cleanup continues. For more from the flood, see pages 3, 4, 5. | WILLIAM DEKAY PHOTO PRAIRIE FLOODING | CROP RECOVERY
The aftermath: tallying damage Acres under water | The length of saturation time and maturity affect crops’ ability to recover BY ED WHITE WINNIPEG BUREAU
Analysts are busy tearing-up, revising and just simply guesstimating their projections for the size of the 2014-15 Western Canadian crop. The massive rain-caused flooding and saturation has nullified months of careful analysis of what Prairie farmers are likely to produce this summer. With crucial areas soaked, under water and delayed, it is difficult to get a good sense of how much crop is actually still out there. “That’s what I was just discussing with my colleague,” said Chris Ferris, an analyst with Informa Economics’ Winnipeg office. “The percentage (of average production) at this point, I’m still trying
to put it together.” CWB analyst Bruce Burnett said only one easy conclusion is possible right now, and that’s that Western Canada will not produce Prairiewide bumper yields this year like it did last year. “That’s totally off the table now,” said Burnett. “It’s going to be down from (not only) last year levels, but even from average levels.” Beyond that general analysis, specific numbers are hard to develop. Analysts are coping with a guessing game because the saturation crisis is still unfolding, even if the initial blanket of heavy rains is well past. The amount of time each type of crop is under water or has its roots soaked, determines how much damage that crop will suffer. That is significantly affected by how
far advanced the crop is at the time when it is saturated. Well-developed crops are better able to handle saturation stress. But prairie crops vary widely in development because farmers this spring had problems getting most of their crops in at the usual times. Most farmers have some early fields and some late fields. That makes estimating general damage challenging. And the saturation level is far from uniform. Many farms in the Melville, Sask., to Melita, Man., region had or have some cropland completely underwater, have some saturated and have some wet but not saturated fields. Some areas will end up drownedout, while others will see yield reductions and yet others will still likely end up getting back to average yield
potential. Beyond damage to plants’ inherent yield potential from saturation, crop potential will also be hit by two factors that are potentially more significant this year than in most: disease and weeds. The rains came when most farmers were hoping to do their post-emergent herbicide spraying and many have had to delay or abandon those plans. If farmers can’t get into their fields until the weeds are well-advanced and crop canopies are closed, their ability to control yield-reducing weed flushes is hampered. Humidity-induced crop diseases can wreak havoc in fields if crop-level air stays moist for weeks.
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SEE THE AFTERMATH, PAGE 2
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